My latest board game review for Paste covers Pandemic: Rising Tide, a standalone spinoff of the original Pandemic, this time pitting players against rising waters threatening to flood the Netherlands, so players must build dikes and pumps while trying to complete four hydraulic stations to win the game.
Keith Law: My mind’s diseased, even my vision is impaired … it must be Klawchat.
RyderGreen: What’s your take these days on Kyle Lewis? are you bullish on his ability to return and be something close to a GUY?
Keith Law: Bearish until we see him on the field for any consistent length of time. He was not 100% at all last summer or fall.
Roger: If you are the Astros, do you trade Tucker and Fisher and Moran for Gerrit Cole, or just wait for Whitley to make his way through the minors?
Keith Law: You could do both; given their depth, Tucker is the only one of those three I think they’d miss. But I wouldn’t give up Whitley at all. He’s in my top 10 overall prospects.
Devin: Do you think Duggar can handle Centerfield at AT&T, or should the Giants sign someone like Jarrod Dyson?
Keith Law: If they don’t want to sign Lorenzo Cain because of the draft pick, which I understand, sort of, then I’d give Duggar a shot. He’s a really good athlete with more than enough speed for center.
Marvin: If the Cubs sign Darvish would you still have Quintana as your #1 starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s more of an academic debate, but yes, I probably would.
Forrest Boy: Hey Keith, are scouts properly adjusting guys like Forrest Whitley and Walker Buehler’s rate stats? Their K and BB rates are tremendous, but they also never go through the order a 3rd time and average around 4 innings pitched, sometimes they have their pitch count capped. Knowing that, I’m sure their stuff plays up when they can go 100% on every pitch. What should be gathered from that when comparing those guys to Keller, McKenzie, and Kopech who are averaging around 5.5 IP or better while still maintaining good K/BB numbers?
Keith Law: Scouts aren’t adjusting the stats; scouts are scouting. I wouldn’t compare those two guys, either – Buehler’s older, coming off TJ, while Whitley is just 19 and being held back strictly for precautionary reasons. I also do not agree that a pitcher can go 100% on every pitch when facing 18 batters, which Whitley did 8 times last year.
Paul (San Francisco): Requesting your considered opinion on the respective ceilings and likelihood of reaching them for Giolito and L.Castillo. Thank you!
Keith Law: Giolito has top of the rotation potential, although given the performance the last two years and the trouble he had throwing his curveball with the major league baseball last year, I’d probably say more of a #2 starter. I’m expecting some regression from Castillo this year given his total lack of a breaking ball.
Jim: When do you plan to start rolling out the Org. Rankings, Top 100 and Team Top 10’s? Thanks!
Keith Law: January 22nd is the current start date for the package; it’ll roll out over two weeks this year, rather than three.
TR: If you are the White Sox, what do you with A Garcia? What could they reasonably expect to get for him? Appears to be a likely regression candidate.
Keith Law: Yes, he is, given his BABIP, and I would certainly shop him … but there are so many free agent corner guys this year that it may be the wrong time.
Josh: What were your favorite books you read in 2017?
Keith Law: In no particular order: The Fifth Season, The Erstwhile, Betaball, The Underground Railroad, Mister Monkey, Blackout/All Clear, The Last Days of Night, Not a Scientist, The Cooperstown Casebook, Everybody Lies, Lab Girl, Wise Children, Smoke, On Immunity, The Chimes, and Hi, Anxiety!
Jim: Is Gohara, Wright, Allard and Pache enough to get Yelich from the Marlins?
Keith Law: Heh. I’d say yeah, that’s more than enough.
Lucas: Besides Greene, do the Reds have any intriguing pitchers in their farm system that should give me hope that they could win the division in 2020? Or do you think they ultimately have to trade/sign an ace? Thanks
Keith Law: I think they can still hope for someone like Robert Stephenson to take that leap, but you are correct that other than Greene, who is still a long way off, they have a bunch of depth starters but nobody likely to post a 5-WAR season or show up on Cy Young ballots. Mahle’s their best upper-level pitching prospect and I think he has a very high probability of being at least an average starter, but almost no chance of being even a soft #1.
Chloe: Hi Keith. Big fan of your work. Do you think the A’s have the necessary high end prospects to warrant the top-5 farm system ranking that some analysts have bestowed on them?
Keith Law: No. I can’t imagine them in the top five.
Moe Mentum: Which phrase best describes Maikel Franco – “breakout candidate,” “change of scenery guy,” or “not as good at baseball as we thought”?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting a breakout, so one of the others. His pitch selection is why I was concerned about him as a prospect, and unfortunately, it hasn’t improved.
Moe Mentum: Ferris Bueller’s Day Off or Risky Business?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever seen Risky Business, so FBDO by default.
Nelson: If you were blindfolded and plopped down in the stands of a minor league stadium and given no context, just watching the gameplay would you be able to determine the level?
Keith Law: I doubt it unless I could extrapolate from the players’ apparent ages and sizes.
john wick: I’ve heard positive things about Logan Allen without much detail. What’s his realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.
Joseph G: Keith, I’ve missed these chats, hope you had a wonderful holiday. Does Luis Urias have an 80 hit tool? I’ve heard some prospect evaluators at least entertaining that grade.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate at all. Anyone tossing that around is more likely trying to get your attention.
Bruce: What are your thoughts on Braden Shipley? He struggled in a few brief call ups last season. Is he a future major league starter?
Keith Law: I would try him in relief in the short term to see if his velocity bounces back at all. His fastball has been down since maybe a year out of college, although his secondary stuff is still intact.
James: I’ve read a few professional prospect evaluators that have Fernando Tatis, Jr and Mackenzie Gore rated similar in their FV, with some placing Gore ahead Tatis, Jr. Is he a top 10 prospect for you? Or is the hype inflated at this point?
Keith Law: This is not the Bad Takes Klawchat. You want the room down the hall.
Dan: Are there any no-go zones in Pandemic: Rising Tide? Or is that just fake news?
Keith Law: (Uncomfortable silence).
Jon : Did you watch the TV Show Homicide: Life on the Streets? Wondering your thoughts compared to The Wire.
Keith Law: Loved it. At the time, I’d never seen anything like it. But Simon’s choice of themes and subjects works better when his dialogue mirrors the way people actually talk.
Robbie: Do you think the angels should splurge for Yu? I don’t think spending huge money on a starting pitcher with an injury history and on the wrong side of 30 is especially smart, but if it helps keep Mike around…
Keith Law: Mike isn’t going anywhere.
Jacos: If Russell or Baez have to be traded who do you trade?
Keith Law: I think Russell has upside remaining while Baez may be topped out, so I’d trade Baez.
Brian: What are your thoughts of Jake Burger? Can he stick at 3B?
Keith Law: Very hard contact but not a 3b.
Mark: You seem to be a fan of Top Chef and baking, but I never see you reference any Great British Bake Off. Are you not a fan of nice even bakes?
Keith Law: Never watched it. Haven’t even watched Top Chef this season.
Baddoo: What grade would you put on Akil Baddoo? Is he a 50 and does he have the chance to be something more? Are we looking at a top 100 prospect possibly?
Keith Law: I don’t put grades like that on prospects; people then focus too much on the single number (the anchoring effect) and not enough on the description. As for top 100, you’ll see in about two weeks.
Chris : How does Jay Bruce deal affect Lorenzo Cain market? What do you think he ends up getting years/$$?
Keith Law: I don’t think the signing of a bad defensive RF with platoon issues affects the market for a good defensive CF without them.
Max: I feel like you addressed this somewhere already (another chat?), but did you decide to take a pass on Top Chef this season due to the John Besh episode? It sounds like they were able to completely remove him, and it’s been a strong season IMO with a really fun group of chefs.
Keith Law: That was one reason – they balked at removing him, then reversed course. Then I heard they let that clown Logan Paul on the show. And given how lukewarm I felt on the last two seasons – Brooke’s victory march, and that guy I can’t even remember who made quite a few sexist comments along the way – I decided to pass.
Keith Law: And the time required for the writeups. Those took forever.
Bryce Harper: How bad is the Bruce deal? The terms seem okay but he doesn’t really fit and it feels like a Wilpons move.
Keith Law: It’s a bad fit and I think it ends up costing Dom Smith playing time. Alderson giving up this fast on Smith seems very un-Sandy-like.
Juan: How much weight do you put into Mateo’s showing at AA Midland and AA Trenton after a lackluster showing in A+? How much, if at all, did he raise his stock? Thanks!
Keith Law: I saw him in Trenton – he looked like a different player, playing harder, making better contact (although I still doubt the power). He gave himself some real value for the Yankees and just the right time.
jay_B: Keith, Buster had Bryant listed as his #4 3B. Curious if you would rank him there as well, or who you’d have in front of him?
Keith Law: I would have ranked him higher.
Dan: Is there a difference between the success Cody Reed (AZ) had in the low minors with average velo, but deception and control (and later struggles at high minors) and Cole Ragans?
Keith Law: Yes, quite a lot of difference.
Seth: Do you think the Rockies decision to give large contracts to their entire bullpen is going to hinder their chances of signing Arenado, Blackmon and/or Lemahieu long term? This seems like a risk considering the volatility of relievers and the ballpark they pitch in.
Keith Law: It might, depending on ownership’s willingness to spend, although I don’t think LeMahieu is someone they need to lock up long term – they can find a 1.5-2.0 win 2b, maybe in their own system.
Brandon: Hi klaw: (a) should the Rockies move Hoffman and/or Tapia; (b) do either/both have material trade value?
Keith Law: Tapia depends a bit on what they plan to do with Blackmon; I would try Hoffman in relief before I shipped him out. He is, however, a poor fit for pitching at altitude.
Cards: What should we make of Delvin Perez at this point?
Keith Law: Very little other than that he’s so young and underdeveloped physically that he still has time to recover.
Jshep12: You buyin’ Bitcoin?
Keith Law: I sold all my bitcoins to buy South Seas stock.
Sal: Brusdar Graterol — Twins think he has four pitches and plan to start him. Is this delaying his is inevitable bullpen career or are their SP beliefs warranted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why you say that’s what the Twins think. I would continue to start him to see if the breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, as it’s probably an 80 fastball.
Craig: Is Royce Lewis growing on you? Who do you like more between him and Florial?
Keith Law: That’s not close for me. Even if I’m right that Lewis will move off shortstop, he’s a much better hitter than Florial.
JR: The only way the Jay Bruce signing makes sense is if they have some serious concerns about the extent of Conforto’s injury, right? The one spot they are set at is corner OFs, so to use their “limited” resources on a position that is already set makes no sense to me? I realize Conforto won’t be ready on opening day, but I’m sure between Nimmo/journeyman on a 1 year deal, they would’ve been OK in short term.
Keith Law: That could explain it. Or they figure Cespedes is going to miss a chunk of time again. Or they’re done with Smith and Nimmo.
DJoe: Cubs are without a top 100 prospect for the first time in a long time. Being uncharted territory for a cubs fan, is this normal after pieces have been traded for a championship level team, or are they in trouble?
Keith Law: Interesting that you say they’re without a top 100 prospect when I haven’t posted my top 100 (and expect there to be a Cub on it).
Quisenberry’s Sinker: What do Braves do with Surplus of MLB Ready Pitching Prospects once Allard, Soroka are MLB Ready. Do you see them up by July if AAA progress continues?
Keith Law: Someone will get hurt, someone will struggle in AAA … they have tremendous pitching depth, but the odds of them ending up with a surplus for the ML rotation are slim. And even then they could tandem-start two guys to limit innings totals for the season – neither Allard nor Soroka is a huge guy.
Mike: Eric Thames had a couple great months and a couple stinkers last year, and basically no period during which he hit like his overall season numbers. Do you think this year he’ll settle into the middle of that range or toward one of the extremes?
Keith Law: He was awful after April. I think the league figured out fairly quickly how to get him out.
Lyle: Is Eric Filia anything more than an org guy?
Keith Law: Yes. Maybe just an up and down type, but not an org guy.
Joe: Which pospect has the best hit tool in the minors currently? Urias? Hiura?
Keith Law: I think that list has to start with Acuna and Vlad Jr.
Frankelly: I personally think Heliot Ramos is getting way too much hype from his pro debut where people only see the results rather than the underlying struggles and issues. Is he a top 100 guy yet?
Keith Law: I would agree that he’s getting a bit overhyped because his superficial AZL stats were good, and because he’s the #1 prospect in their system.
Matt: I understand the need/want for Yelich in ATL but does it make sense to include more prospects for JT as well? Flowers and Kurt were sold last year and they have some decent prospects in the minors (Cumberland, Jackson, etc.)
Keith Law: I’d understand a prospect trade for Realmuto more than a trade for Yelich. Cumberland looks like a backup, Jackson’s catching wasn’t good in AFL, Herbert hasn’t developed.
addoeh: So A-Rod is now a popular broadcaster and Jeter is an unpopular owner. Wow, things can change quickly.
Keith Law: Life comes at you fast.
Stu J.: There are rumors the Reds will look to move Senzel to 2B (or OF or even SS) and leave Suarez at 3B. What would you do with the IF?
Keith Law: I would leave Senzel at third, because he’s made himself an above-average defender, and build around him. He’s their best prospect, probably a top 10 overall guy, and they should move other players to accommodate him.
ECinDC: Ever read Mason & Dixie by Pynchon? If so, thoughts? Thinking of putting it on the ‘to read’ list
Keith Law: Nope. Loved Inherent Vice, hated Gravity’s Rainbow, didn’t really get Lot 49.
Ed: The lack of dollars being spent on free agents is caused by: A) Teams being smarter / more frugal on what they spend their resources on, B) Teams not committing dollars this off season in preparation for next off season, C) Collusion
Keith Law: First one for sure. I have had agents suggest collusion, but no one has any evidence of that.
Evan White: What to make of this guy? Reports have a 70 on the glove but his bat doesn’t play at 1B. Would you move him to the outfield?
Keith Law: His bat doesn’t play at first?
Brian: How does Gabriel Arias project to you? Will he be the real Padres SS of the future instead of Tatis? Seems to be some buzz around him this offseason during his winter play.
Keith Law: He’s still just 17 and really hasn’t hit anywhere (even in Australia he has just a .310 OBP). I do like Arias’ long-term potential, but it’s entirely potential, and while he can stay at shortstop he’s not the best defender of that whole cluster of Latin American shortstops they have from low-A down.
Dr. Bob: I know you hate the giving of grades to off-season moves, but has any team impressed you with what they’ve done so far?
Keith Law: Not really. Has anyone done enough to warrant it? I feel like no.
HH: Keith, you’ve been one of the better voices speaking out against signing players found guilty of domestic violence. I’m curious where you’d draw the line on employing such people – I wouldn’t want to sign someone like Aroldis Chapman to my team, but I also wouldn’t want to hire him to run my Subway franchise. What happens if everyone felt this way? Economic death penalty, for lack of a better term?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s really our problem, right? I would rather worry about the victims, who likely need significant financial, medical, and psychiatric assistance, than whether abusers can find jobs.
Brett: Is JP Crawford a better prospect than Scott Kingery at this point, or would you put Kingery about him?
Keith Law: Crawford is their top prospect.
Marshall MN: What do you make of the talk from experts about the so-called inevitability of the Red Sox signing Martinez? It seems odd to me, as there are other ways to address their lack of power without committing to a guy for 7 years.
Keith Law: I get the sense they won’t commit to him for 7 years, but would for 4.
Chris : Marcos Molina a bit of a sleeper this year in Mets system? Would like Mets to put him in bullpen as a multi-inning guy.
Keith Law: Always thought he had to go to the bullpen; his stuff ticked down after TJ, so that seems more inevitable than before.
Tyler: Assuming the Yankees get under the luxury tax this offseason, how aggressive do you think they will be with next years class? Do you think they will absorb the tax penalties to sign 2 mega stars?
Keith Law: They could also try to clear a bad contract or two to sign those 2 stars. That seems like the most likely outcome.
Kevin: What exactly are the Orioles doing? Slow moving for a team with three holes in their rotation.
Keith Law: Likely waiting for the second and third tiers of starters to sign, which means after the first tier signs.
Brett: Assuming a healthier 2018, where do you envision Juan Soto finishing the year? AA?
Keith Law: High-A. Barely played in low-A last year.
Don: I think Andujar will be respectable overall if he is given a fair chance, your opinion?
Keith Law: I do. The rare unheralded Yankees prospect.
Frank: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Allard? I’m confused why the industry seems to like him so much. Isn’t he just 88-91? What’s the realistic upside with him?
Keith Law: Some pretty good big league pitchers are “just 88-91,” and he has a knockout curveball.
Stanley: Rumors of a reboot of “The Office” are swirling, with many using the successful return of “Will & Grace” as inspiration. That show kept the same cast, whereas Michael Scott ain’t walking through that door. Do you agree that bringing the show back with supporting players from the first run and other new cast members is likely a mistake?
Keith Law: If they’re not reassembling the cast & the writers from a show’s peak, then a reboot is likely to fail.
Mike: Do you prefer Darvish or Arrietta for the same money/term?
Keith Law: Darvish.
Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Johan Camargo?
Keith Law: Utility infielder. Doesn’t have the bat to start.
Steve: Good afternoon Keith, I think I read somewhere you mentioned a family vacation to Aruba…What were your thoughts of the island?
Keith Law: Loved it. The fact that we could walk from our hotel into a little commercial area with shops, restaurants, and of course a Starbucks made it better and less costly (because we weren’t captives of hotel food).
Mark: You’ve said Johan Santana comes up short for you. Santana’s 2003-2010 peak of 1670 IP and 67 ERA- is pretty close to Koufax’s 1961-66 peak of 1632 IP and 63 ERA-. Koufax did more outside that, but was ultimately only a league average pitcher in his first six years. Is that really the difference between going in and not?
Keith Law: Yes. And Koufax is a bit of a special case, too; he doesn’t have a typical Hall career.
Jesus: Do people ever spam you with the same question in hopes that you’ll answer it? What do you do with those people/questions?
Keith Law: Yes. I usually ignore it; that’s not necessary for readers in this chat software and just makes my job harder.
Jake: Since you’re giving out spoilers (i.e., Whitley), is Tatis a top 10 guy?
Keith Law: That wasn’t a spoiler on Whitley – I’ve said it before – and I said in August Tatis was a top 10 prospect.
Paul: Is Ohtani eligible for your lists?
Keith Law: No. I exclude players with NPB and KBO experience; those are major leagues, regardless of MLB’s interest in holding down their salaries. However, if I have an AL ROY vote this year, I would absolutely consider Ohtani, since he’s eligible.
Mike: What’s your opinion on how cold the off season has been? Are teams avoiding long-term deals to not be handicapped by the next free agent season? Should Bob Mueller investigate if there is collusion among the teams?
Keith Law: I feel like he has bigger fish to fry. An orange huffy, specifically.
Dr. Bob: Some love to rail against “tanking” in the style of what Houston and Chicago did. I think this is mislabeled. Neither organization tried to purposely lose a bunch of games to get a top pick. Rather they traded big contract guys who were not going to help the team win to get assets. Maybe they lost 105 games instead of 95 because of that strategy, but it was sound. They should be more concerned about what Miami is doing–unloading good players to make more money.
Keith Law: Agreed. Houston and the Cubs had a strategy to improve in the long term by avoiding that 70-80 win purgatory, trading players who wouldn’t be there 4-5 years down the road for longer-term assets, then filling the gap with short-term signs and/or fringe guys from their own system to sort those players out and possibly flipping some of those guys for prospects too. Dallas Keuchel wasn’t a top prospect, and the kind of pitcher he is now is not reflective of what he was in the minors, but because the Astros were bad, they gave him a shot in the major-league rotation. Maybe he doesn’t get that chance if they’re trying to win a few extra meaningless games in 2014.
Chris: I’m a little weirded out by all the Oprah and The Rock for President stuff. Don’t we need to go back to someone who is actually, you know, qualified for the job?
Keith Law: Yes. And I was surprised how many people took my “Oprah/Portman 2020” joke seriously.
Dan: You were super high on Addison Russell when he was a prospect, why do you think he hasn’t “broken” out yet?
Keith Law: Some is pitch selection, some is the nagging shoulder injury that bothered him most of 2017.
Dr. Bob: What hasn’t Cain been signed yet. Surely there are more than a few teams who could use a guy who could potentially give you a few 5 WAR seasons, even if he is 31.
Keith Law: I think the draft pick is a big impediment; teams are more reluctant than ever to give up a top pick because it wrecks your bonus pool.
Harry: You mention Giolito’s issues “with the major league baseball” is that specifically last year’s juiced ball, or the MLB ball in general as compared to the minors?
Keith Law: The major league and minor league baseballs are different.
Alex: What is your approach for reading a cookbook like The Food Lab? Cover to cover, or reference page/topics as needed?
Keith Law: I look for recipes that interest me and try them. Cookbooks aren’t written to be read cover to cover, and a book of that length and scope is going to include stuff that doesn’t interest or apply to you.
Chris: Thoughts on the band Local Natives? I’ve never seen you mention one of their songs of albums.
Keith Law: Not a huge fan although “Happy Feet” made my top 100 a few years ago.
Brett: Is this as good as Taijuan Walker and Danny Salazar are going to be? Or do you think either will improve?
Keith Law: Both have untapped potential, Salazar needs to get healthy, Walker may just forever be inconsistent.
tvators: Don’t think it makes some sense for Mets to have plan B for injury to Smith or 2 month flop/return trip to AAA rather than just full time Flores/scrap heap Loney type??
Keith Law: A plan B doesn’t cost you 3 years and $39 million. And Smith has hit everywhere in the minors after slow starts at most levels. Assuming his 2017 major-league line – coming from Vegas to the majors – is predictive but his minor league performance isn’t is foolish.
Chris : Thought the Padres return for Solarte was a little light. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Disagree.
TR: As you look at draftees, what do you expect in terms of progress for a first round pick over the first 1-3 years? Pitcher vs position player? HS draftee vs college?
Keith Law: A college player in the first round should be able to start his first full year in high-A, and I’d expect a promotion to double-A before the year ends. A high school player in the first round might be ready for full-season ball, but I don’t assume that such a player who stays in extended and goes to an advanced short-season team is a bust; some high school players need more time, or aren’t ready for the Midwest League.
Larry: Does Alec Hansen profile as a starter for you? He was old for his leagues last year and I was told he loses his release point. He won’t get away with that against more advanced competition.
Keith Law: He does, and I don’t worry about age relative to level much for pitchers, especially not with his kind of stuff.
JJ: Your ESPN colleague Bradford Doolittle wrote that, if he were elected to the HOF, Trevor Hoffmann would immediately be the best reliever enshrined. Do you believe that’s true?
Keith Law: He would be incorrect. Hoyt Wilhelm is already in the Hall, with 19 more WAR than Hoffman and double Hoffman’s innings total.
Mike: just curious why you seem so sure Trout will stay with the Angels? Shouldn’t they be worried about the Phillies, Yankees or Dodgers offering insane money to him in a few years?
Keith Law: He’s under contract through 2020. Signing Darvish now isn’t going to do anything to sway his choice in 2021.
Jim : Would you start Hader of use him as a multi inning reliever? I think it’s a waste to have him as a 1 inning guy.
Keith Law: Reliever. Never bought into him as a starter due to arm action. Filthy stuff though.
DJ: Do you like Estrada as a good utility guy?
Keith Law: Thairo? That’s about right.
Doug: Chances of Alzolay developing an average changeup, and remaining a starter?
Keith Law: I do believe he’s a starter long term.
Brian: What do you think is the Padres logic regarding Hosmer interest? Do it hold water?
Keith Law: It makes no sense whatsoever. I wonder if this is a phantom offer to try to get the Royals to bid against themselves; it would be the worst possible move for the Padres right now.
Keith Law: I have to run to get back on the phone; I may not chat next week but will definitely chat on the 25th, by which point the entire top 100 should be posted, so maybe I should go start writing. Thanks as always for all of your questions.