I’ve got two Insider posts up now, one on the Astros’ moves last week and one on moves by the Cardinals, Twins, and Rangers, plus a small Rays-Mariners trade.
I’ve also updated the Spotify playlist of songs I’ve quoted to start the chats, going back to the beginning of 2016.
Klaw: Captivate the mass, cause the prose is profound. Klawchat.
Dana: What’s Gleyber Torres’ ceiling? MVP-caliber player?
Klaw: I think he’s a future star. Top ten player in the league.
Carlo: Love these chats and am so glad you continued to do them after ESPN. Do you think Bradley Zimmer can do an acceptable impression of Joc Pederson? i.e. power, speed, patience, and Ks in platoon role? Or do you think that’s aiming high or low? Thanks!
Klaw: Yes, that’s a reasonable expectation. I think Zimmer’s entering a critical year – if he can’t cut the Ks and hit LHB better, then it’s a platoon future.
John Liotta: How often do you go back and reread books? I find that I reread a couple each year. A lot of the books I read in high school or early college went unappreciated, and, in other cases, I want to make sure, now that I’m older, the books I’m recommending are still consistent with my current taste.
Klaw: Very rarely. I probably have only reread a dozen novels in my life. Master & Margarita, Great Gatsby, Huck Finn, Pride & Prejudice, and the Eyre Affair (re-read after I read Jane Eyre), plus the HP series with my daughter.
The Sad Friar: Do you still hold out hope for Javier Guerra? Sounds like a lot of people have written him off after one bad year in high A.
Klaw: Writing off a player that talented and young is stupid.
KC: Hi Keith – you’ve often described pitchers as lacking the command to be starters, and I saw similar comments on the recently traded Albert Abreu (not by you). My question is how does that work? I understand a pitcher’s command to be shorthand for ‘ability to throw quality strikes’ or ‘location within the zone’ – is it simply a matter of avoiding 30 pitch innings? So a guy with fringe command is a 100 pitch, 4 IP guy half the time as a starter,, but 30 pitch innings coming out of the bullpen are fine?
Klaw: It’s not “simply” anything with command – control is simple, but command isn’t. A pitcher who can’t command enough of his pitches to start can move to the bullpen and benefit from throwing harder and/or being seen just once per game and have the command deficiency become less significant.
Bill: Do you get your turkey spatchcocked for you or do you do it yourself? That part is by far the most daunting to me.
Klaw: I do it myself, live on Periscope.
Will: Where would you rank Lourdes Gurriel Jr. among Blue Jays prospects?
Klaw: I won’t do org rankings and top tens till late January or early February. He’s not a high-end prospect, though.
Lou (Reno): Why do teams send rule 5 eligible players to the AFL? ( thinking of Eric Wood). Aren’t they just giving other teams an extra look at these players?
Klaw: They’re also giving themselves an extra look at their own players to determine whether to keep those guys or expose them, and giving other teams looks to perhaps try to trade for them before the protection deadline.
Jonathan: I enjoyed your article on the Brett Cecil signing, what odds do you give the deal turning out well?
Klaw: Well under 50/50. The history of long-term deals for relievers is awful and not improving.
Elton: How do you like the new Tribe album (We got it from Here… Thank You 4 Your service)?
Klaw: It’s great. You gotta get it. You got got to get it.
Melky: Do you think Gohara is too much to give up for Cozart? If so, who might be a better fit from the Mariners system?
Klaw: That would be a ridiculous overpay.
Nate: Keith, Carson Fullmer really struggled with his control this season. Did he have this issue as an amateur, but the competition swung at pitches out of the zone, or is this something that has developed recently?
Klaw: Couldn’t throw his breaking stuff for strikes as an amateur (and I noted that when I wrote him up). Also a hard delivery to repeat.
Kim: Has our country always been so racist, xenophobic, homophobic, and sexist and I just didn’t realize it?
Klaw: Apparently so.
Brad C.: Do you agree with those who assert that the Mets MUST sign Cespedes or their season is lost? Conforto, Grandy, Bruce, Lagares is still a good OF.
Klaw: MUST is awfully strong. He’s the best move for them. But they could lose him and sign Fowler and still end up in pretty good shape.
Jen: What’s the best case (realistic) scenario for Trump’s presidency?
Klaw: We avoid mutually assured destruction?
Ethan: Eric Wood performed well in AFL after a breakout season in AA; after being unprotected for Rule 4, could Pirates be losing a prospect with any kind of value?
Klaw: He hit 249/.339/.443 as a AA repeater at 23 (turns 24 today). Not a guy.
Ozzie: Curious to hear your thoughts on the hazing-by-masturbation incident.
Klaw: This involved Rangers prospects in the DR, for folks who haven’t heard it. I’d drop the hammer on the perpetrators, assuming they’re not jailed for sexual assault. MLB should make a swift example of them.
Matt T.: I know you buy, cook, eat a lot of various food, some of of it rich and indulgent as well. My question is, how do you stay in shape? Or have time for it? Traveling all the time for your own job, as well as having a family to raise? How do you find that balance?
Klaw: The foods I tend to discuss here or on social media aren’t what I’m eating three meals a day. My typical lunch at home (which I just ate) is plain 2% yogurt with honey, my own granola, and fruit.
Nils: Hi Keith, thanks for your Thanksgiving tips. Trying to keep my mashed potatoes simple this year, what should I be adding to them? Also, do you have a preference on the act of mashing? Ricer?
Klaw: Ricer. Make sure the cream/milk/butter mixture is hot when you pour it in. Don’t overmix or the potato starches will get long and produce a gluey texture. And I never make mashed potatoes for a crowd because they don’t hold well at all – you pretty much have to make them to order.
Alex: Is the fact that teams are already spending money on FA without the CBA being signed a good indication that it’s going to get done and that there will be only minor tweaks with no major changes to the way business has been done?
Klaw: I don’t think anyone is worried about a deal happening, but even so, any structural or rule changes would go into effect next offseason, not in the middle of one already occurring.
Jones: Given his weaknesses, what do you think motivated Cardinals ownership to resign Matheny?
Klaw: I think they love what he does in the clubhouse, the intangible leadership woo stuff. I see a guy who loses the team a few games a year with idiotic in-game moves and whose mishandling of Kolten Wong in particular may have ruined a decent prospect.
Jeff: Hi Keith, thank you for the chats, really enjoy them. Do you think the Cubs go hard after Jansen? Cubs seem reluctant to commit to that kind of $ but it seems like it would be the prime opportunity to do so while most of their younger players have reasonable contracts. If not Jansen, any ideas on who they might target? Have a hard time believing they’ll be content with Rondon.
Klaw: I have suspected they’d at least go after him, maybe not be the high bidders but be active, rather than hold on to Chapman. Jansen’s better, and he has way better makeup, to say the least. And they’re in position now to forego the draft pick (late first) to sign a free agent.
Frank: Was “letting” Brett Cecil get away a mistake by the Blue Jays, or will we only know the answer to that come spring? Brett was a huge part of that pen, and a big hole to fill now.
Klaw: I wouldn’t have come close to that offer he got.
Bob: Hi, Keith. I was curious as to the reasons for your third place vote for Jon Gray for NL ROY. Statistically he compares well with Kenta Maeda who got more press. His WAR (2.3), however, was lower than that of either Trevor Story (3.1) or Aledmys Diaz (3.5). (WAR is not the end-all, but it’s a handy place to start.) So what was your thinking?
Klaw: That’s his B-R WAR; his Fangraphs WAR, which works off his peripherals rather than his ERA, was 3.7. He was badly hurt by a low strand rate, which is in part a function of the Rockies’ bullpen and the home park. His fWAR was higher than Diaz’s or Story’s, he’s younger than Diaz or Maeda, and frankly I think what he did, in context, is a lot more impressive than, say, Story having a big power year in a great power park.
Jason: Is there a trade offer Atlanta could make for Sale or Archer that (1) the other team would accept and (2) would be a good trade for Atlanta?
Klaw: They could make a viable offer for any player in the majors if they’re willing to give up enough from their system. I’m not sure that would be advisable in either case; I think they’d be better served using all those pitching prospects to trade for a cornerstone young position player than a pitcher.
Kenny: Are there any Rule 5 eligible players who may end up being major contributors in ’17, like Biagini was in ’16?
Klaw: Biagini was worth about a win. That’s not a major contributor. And the fact that he stands out like that is why I ignore the rule 5 draft.
Harrisburg Hal: I know you normally do a kitchen gift ideas post, but can you provide a recommendation on a food processor? We find it useful for more and more recipes than we anticipated when we put a low-quality one on our wedding registry some 14 years ago, thinking we’d only use it for salsa. Have a terrific holiday with your loved ones.
Klaw: I’ll do that post after Thanksgiving. I still have the same old Cuisinart model I’ve had for almost 20 years, so I couldn’t specifically recommend another model since I haven’t tried one. I agree that it’s indispensable, though. I’ll make my pumpkin pie filling in the food processor tomorrow evening.
JR: Every year you get asked about Rule 5 draft, and every year you point out that the rule changes awhile back made it less interesting. With that out of the way, any interesting names in play, or not really?
Klaw: Don’t know, don’t care. Really. The ratio of words expended on it to value produced by it approaches infinity.
Sean: I can’t quite fathom why a team would want Chapman on a multi-year deal. It seemed evident that any dip in his velocity rendered him very hittable. Wouldn’t a reasonable team run for the hills at the idea of hitching their wagon to him?
Klaw: Also that he throws only fastballs with men on. And he’s a terrible human being who’s a fair risk to end up breaking the law or getting sued or just generally making your team look bad for signing him (well, worse than they would for signing him in the first place). I ranked him lower than he would have been on merit because of that stuff.
Paul: I got 10 bucks says Trump doesn’t make it through 4 yrs. Resigns or impeached
Klaw: I think this is a real possibility, but then we end up with Mike Pence, who thinks you can make gay people straight by electrocuting them, and a GOP that has lurched to the right on social and economic issues running the government for the remainder of the term. I’m not OK with that either, and I say that as someone who agrees with some economic policies that would probably be considered conservative or typically Republican.
Chris: Is the Braves offense actually good, or was the 2nd half a fluke?
Klaw: That’s a fluke.
Jeff: Thanks for doing these chats! Do you expect Matt Bush to continue to be successful as a reliever? What comparisons can you use when projecting him? And what do you throw out due to his situation being so unique?
Klaw: Relievers are the class of player where I’d be most likely to ignore the player’s history. Present stuff and control seem to be most important, along with platoon split (ability to get both sides out). You can suck one year and be Andrew Miller the next. That almost never happens with hitters or starting pitchers. So yes, I would be fine counting on Bush to be an above-average reliever going forward.
mike: My son is 7 and a good reader for his age. We go to the library every week and he loves to get a pile of books, but he exclusively goes for non-fiction (which is fine!) stuff. I’ve had trouble finding anything fiction related he gets excited about. Tried Dinotopia and thought I had him hooked, but it faded quick. ANYWAY, do you have any fiction rec’d for that age, something that you got your daughter interested in?
Klaw: Harry Potter, of course. She also got into these Wings of Fire books about dragons around age 8, but I don’t know if those are aimed at girls specifically. We loved the Last Dragonslayer by Fforde too.
Jeff: Looks like Rowdy Tellez will at least get to compete for a bench spot next season, if not the job at 1B. Any chance at all that he can be an average regular?
Klaw: Not to me. Bad athlete, can’t hit good fastballs.
Ryan: Hi Keith…do you think McCutchen bidding will progress to where PIT can realistically acquire a top 1-2 prospect from acquiring team (e.g., Giolito or Lopez from WAS, DeLeon or Bellinger from LAD)?
Klaw: I think so.
It Me: I just wanted to say that I don’t really care for baseball or any sport anymore, but you are my favorite Twitter follow and I love these chats. Please stick to non-baseball 😉
Klaw: I’ve never been capable of sticking to any one topic in my life. I don’t see any reason to start now.
Bob: Thanks for your answer. Good logic. I haven’t used Fangraphs enough.
Klaw: The WAR disparity on pitchers is a question without an answer. Both methods have merit and both results give us useful information. I try to look at both, looking at the components of each, and thinking about what information within those is more meaningful going forward.
Glenn: Realistic outlook for Kaprellian a mid rotation starter?
Klaw: Higher if healthy.
Matt: Thank you for not sticking to baseball. Anyone who says you should can go pound sand. If you had, I would not have learned about Alt-J as early as I did. With that said, can you name any other bands that might be off the radar that one would enjoy if they love Alt-J the way some of us do? As always, thanks!
Klaw: Wild Beasts and Everything Everything.
Eddy: Your former colleague Eric ranked Yadier Alvarez has Dodgers’ #1 prospect. Is the ceiling really that high? What type of pitcher can we expect him to be?
Klaw: Ceiling is high, but I can tell you now I would not rank him over Verdugo or Bellinger, both of whom I think are future All-Stars and are closer to the majors.
Tim: I know rule changes affected the Rule 5 Draft, but could you explain the changes? I was trying to look at had some trouble.
Klaw: The CBA before the current one included a change that extended a club’s period of protection by one year for all players, so in effect, it limited the pool to players who are either still in the low minors and thus unlikely to fare well in a direct jump to the majors or prospects who haven’t panned out.
Bob: Cardinals just raved about their Rule 5 pickup last year, Matt Bowman. While he was serviceable, he provided 0.5 WAR. Whoop-dee-doo. For that half a win, they had to keep him on the roster for the entire year (to keep from having to send him back) and hamstrung themselves at times when making roster moves.
Klaw: Yep. And I like Bowman. But you’re right.
Travis: Hey Keith, I’d like to surprise my wife by turning into A GUY in the kitchen. Where should I start?
Klaw: Go watch Good Eats. The whole series. That’s the best intro you could ever ask for.
Chris: For all the reasons you mentioned, I am dreading the inevitable Yanks’ re-signing of Chapman. I’m tired of having players on my team I loathe (A-Rod, Clemens, Ellsbury for other reasons). I know they can afford it but I’d much rather see them give Betances a chance.
Klaw: I would too, and also, having the greatest bullpen troika in recent memory didn’t get them to the postseason, so why re-sign Chapman when that money would be better spent elsewhere?
Andy: Re Pence: I look at as, Pence is someone I disagree with politically. He and I have very different ideas of what makes the country better. But he’s a politician and he’ll put the good of the country first. I don’t get that feeling for Trump, who seems to value loyalty over competence, and that’s without getting into the fact that he’s a terrible person.
Klaw: This is very fair. I am in the minority on this, but I thought Pence’s response to the Hamilton brouhaha was the right one. It wasn’t great – I mean, he still opposes protecting LGBTQ americans from discrimination – but it was the politic response, a measured answer from a person who at least considers his words before speaking.
Matt: Keith– Did you get a chance to see Greg Allen when you were out for the AFL? His on-base numbers and reports on the glove seem great, but obviously he’s been pretty old for every level as a college guy. Is there anything there?
Klaw: I did and I think he’s an extra guy. No power and didn’t look great in CF.
MJ: Do you think Hellickson made a mistake accepting the QO? Even with the draft pick compensation hanging over his head I’d think he’d have received several solid offers given the absolute black hole that is this year’s SP free agent market.
Klaw: He might have gotten more years at a lower base. I thought accepting was reasonable.
Chris: You always push for teams to hire managers with some actual managerial experience at some level rather than ‘name’ former players. Unless I’m mistaken Alex Cora has none so why do you make an exception for him?
Klaw: You are mistaken. He’s managed in the Puerto Rican league for several winters. Thanks for not giving me the benefit of the doubt.
Jason: Would an expanded roster potentially make the Rule 5 draft more meaningful?
Klaw: It might result in more picks, because hiding a guy would be easier, but won’t improve the quality of the available pool.
Chris: Her mangled grammar and spelling aside, Kate Upton was right, yes?
Klaw: She was right in that omitting Verlander was a mistake.
Tyler: Some “anonymous” FO person recently said he thinks Otani gets $300 million when he comes over. What’s really the realistic contract he gets? And can we stop the narrative of him being a 2-way player, he’s a pitcher and going to be a pitcher here.
Klaw: Doubt he gets that as a pitcher. Really doubt that. Agree that he’s a pitcher only. Could see him getting $150 million over six.
NRWillick: If asked, would you interview on the Alton Browncast? I think the two of you would be great together talking about all issues.
Klaw: Of course, because he’s an idol of mine, but what could I possibly have to contribute to that?
Tom Nieto: What is your take on Weaver and Flaherty of the Cardinals?
Klaw: Weaver looks reliever-ish to me without much of a breaking ball. Flaherty has some mid-rotation potential – great delivery and command, hoping for more oomph as he grows.
Pete: May be too early to ask, but are there any Northern California high schoolers who could be taken within the first 2 days of the ’17 draft?
Klaw: First two days includes more rounds than I cover. I don’t think there’s a day one guy (top two rounds) up there.
Zack: Looking at the Braves past, many of their prospects have been busts…(Marte, Schafer, Capellan, Hanson *RIP*) The odds of their crop of arms producing a few top flight starters can’t be any higher than 2-3 #2-3 starters. Wouldn’t it be smart to ship them off for a Sale or Archer, then possibly ship them off in a few seasons, and get prospects that have a higher probability of succeeding in the future?
Klaw: There’s a risk with Sale and Archer that you may not be including in that analysis – those guys have mileage on their arms and have some injury/bust risk too, lower than that of prospects, but the trade to acquire them reduces the diversity in your portfolio.
Tyler: I think the Cubs are still going to add some potential #5 starters and Montgomery isn’t guaranteed that spot, but what are your thoughts on him moving into the rotation full-time? Can he be a 2.5-3 WAR starter?
Klaw: I don’t think Montgomery can start.
John: I get that throwing 4 year deals at relievers is folly, but WHY do teams keep doing it? What is their rationale? Is it a situation where they feel like, “we have a 1 or 2 year window, so we’ll award a bad contract and hope it pays off in the near term”?
Klaw: I think that’s exactly it. And the market is offering 4 years, so if you want that specific player, you have to go 4 years. Of course, that is how we ended up signing BJ Ryan to a five-year deal where he delivered exactly two years of value and three years of literally nothing.
Jay: What would you do to improve the Nats this offseason? Sign Fowler and return Turner to SS? Sign Cespedes and let Bryce play CF for a year until Werth is gone?
Klaw: Definitely put Turner at SS – Espinosa was atrocious at the plate in the second half, in line with his last few years or even worse – and I am open to putting Harper in CF if they can’t get a plus CF somewhere. That roster is so good that they seem like they should be as motivated to spend as any team.
Ethan: Last chat you stated you’d look for at least 3 legit prospects for McCutchen; I’m assuming that means you think struggles were temporary, injury related, etc., and he’s due for a bounce back?
Klaw: Yes, I think they were almost entirely health-related.
Cory: You often talk or your board games. I have twin boys who will be 2 years old in a couple of weeks. At what age did you start to incorporate games with your children? I feel like 2 is a little early, but I’m curious as I’m excited to have that type of interaction with them. Thanks!
Klaw: When my daughter was four, she wanted to play the Carcassonne app on my iPod Touch, so I showed her how to do it and for a while she didn’t even care about the scores – she just liked manipulating the tiles and getting the rewards of finishing something. So after that we’d invite her to play stuff with us, but her attention span wasn’t really there until she was six or so.
Jimmy: Favorite songs off the new Tribe Called Quest album?
Klaw: Dis Generation, We the People, Space Program, Ego.
Phil: Curious about your take on this…Over the weekend 4 cops were shot and all 4 were shot by African Americans. There hasn’t been one media outlet that has investigated a connection to the BLM mantra of killing cops. Had the 4 shootings been of black pastors by white men, the whole narrative would have been on the rampant racism in our country toward minorities. Why the double standard?
Klaw: There’s a BLM “mantra of killing cops?” You completely lost me there.
Andy: What was the conversation like around the BJ Ryan signing? Were there arguments about whether or not to do it?
Klaw: It was probably the last substantive conversation I had with my boss about a player move. I was opposed to going past three years, and did some basic research that remains the foundation of my belief that relievers shouldn’t get long-term deals today. The way we use relievers, as an industry, contributes to their volatility.
Adam: If you were running Cleveland’s front office, what would be your A plan for CF in 2017: Naquin+platoon partner and hope the defense is at least manageable. Try to go all-in with a potential trade (Cutch or someone else), or short-term FA (Pagan, etc)
Klaw: As well as Naquin runs, it is hard to fathom how he can be this bad in CF. There have been exceptions – Joey Gathright comes to mind – but in general, if a dude can really run, he can at least be average in center. I might give Naquin one more year on that basis. He has the arm to play anywhere, and if he can just show fringy range, he’d be average overall. But he looked bad in CF this year and the numbers supported that. I could understand them punting and going to find a real defender out there – and that’s not Cutch or Pagan, IMO.
Tom: You were wrong about the likelihood of Trout winning MVP. Oh wait, so was I. Here’s to being wrong. (Actual question – what do you think pushed him through this time? I realize it was about his second best season so far, but really thought he’d be punished again for bad teammates and not leading the league in RBI)
Klaw: I saw it while on vacation and I was floored to see that he won and won by a lot, but I never looked to see if any voters discussed their votes. I’d like to think we’re getting more rational about what value is, since front offices are increasingly looking at the question the same way, but I would be basing that on speculation rather than any evidence.
Hugoz: Sorry, but I have to ask…if the Astros weren’t going to retain Castro, what else would you expect them to do if not exercise the Gattis option?
Klaw: Gattis can’t catch – he was probably the worst receiving catcher in baseball last year. (He was among the MLB leaders in WP allowed, despite only catching about 50 games, but that isn’t factored into any public defensive metrics.) I don’t see those two decisions as remotely connected.
Frank: While obviously some major leaguers come from the late rounds, is there really any value in having a draft that is 50 rounds long (or whatever it is) rather than 25 or 30?
Klaw: It’s 40 now, used to be 50, and if they wanted to cut it to 20 I’d be just fine with that. I don’t see a lot of value in its current length.
Jerry: Is the rejection of the split by some organizations due to the fact that many of the Japanese guys who throw the pitch have broken down? Do any of these execs consider the fact that the high school workloads of these guys make those of Kerry Wood and Dylan Bundy seem reasonable?
Klaw: The bias against the splitter predates the Japanese imports – it goes back to the 1980s when there were a few pitchers who developed arm problems, including circulation issues in their throwing hands, after throwing the pitch.
Joe: I am going to the Bahamas in a few months. Are you going to have a post up about your trip?
Klaw: I don’t think so, because most of what we did was at Atlantis, which I’ll say here was very nice but a poor value for the money. (I used points for the room; without that it would have been outrageous.) I do recommend the John Watling’s distillery tour and the on-site bar, where you can do a flight of their three rums for $6.50. We didn’t do the fish fry because of my wife’s shellfish allergy, but all the locals recommend that. The food and drinks at Atlantis are overpriced, and the food in general wasn’t even that good.
addoeh: Good thing the Rule 5 draft isn’t the Rule 6 draft. Because there is no Rule 6.
Klaw: Good point, Bruce.
Chris: I can’t recall you writing about Andujar in any of your AFL recaps. Can he be league avg at 3B for Yanks once Headley’s gone?
Klaw: I think he’s a little below that.
Larry: I, for one, think it would be great to hear you and Alton Brown discuss spatchcocking. As for baseball, the Giants won’t likely be able to spend enough to get both an elite closer and an elite bat, so which would you focus on if you were them: Jansen or Cespedes?
Klaw: The bat is going to have way more impact. Plus they have some power arms who could end up good relievers if they get the time to develop.
Scott: What can a concerned citizen like myself do to challenge voter suppression and gerrymandering? Of all the shitty things happening, this makes me the most hopeless and sad
Klaw: Make yourself heard. Call your state reps – all of them. Call your governor and lieutenant governor. Show up at town meetings they hold. And work to get out the vote in 2018. If you live in North Carolina, call every one of your officials to support Roy Cooper for Governor, since he’s going to win the actual vote count and state Republicans may try a backdoor tactic to steal the election.
Klaw: That’s all for this week – thanks for all the questions. Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving, everyone.