Klawchat 7/21/16.

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Klaw: The past is gone but something might be found to take its place: Klawchat.

Brian: Can you think of a player that has sustained the type of injury Kyle Lewis did this week and return Ed to form after rehab? Thanks,
Klaw: Off the top of my head, no. I’m afraid in this case that it takes away his chance of staying in CF, which was never a given and now might be close to zero.

Ryan: What do you think of the Cubs trade for Mike Montgomery? Theo seems to think that he is the next great left handed reliever. Your thoughts?
Klaw: I think he’s a great left-handed reliever. I also think Vogelbach had no value to the Cubs but could end up a league-average DH now that he’s in the AL. As much as we’ve all mocked his lack of position and his, uh, physique, he has very real (70 or 80) power and a decent feel to hit.

Bob: Have you had a chance to see Jorge Alfaro this year? Seems like there are some indications that his catching has improved. His offense – at least by OPS – is about as good as it’s ever been too. What do the Phils have there?
Klaw: Yep, the catching has improved, at least according to the scouts I’ve talked to. (I haven’t seen him myself.) And if he stays back there and is even just fringy with the glove he’s got a very good chance to be an above-average regular because I think he’ll be a fairly high BABIP hitter (who never walks) with power.

Brian: Have you been able to see much of Aaron Sanchez? I’m curious if his mechanics have changed sufficiently that your concerns have been mitigated. He has certainly been a delight to watch this season.
Klaw: I discussed him in the top 25 under 25. His mechanics are not very different and I’d still like to see his stride longer for his long-term health. His body, however, is very different and I think that’s the cause of his jump in performance this year.

Jack: Last week you said something like Jose De Leon doesn’t have a strikeout (or swing and miss) weapon. I’m trying to reconcile that observation with the fact that he keeps getting strikeouts. He’s been over 30% K% in both AA and AAA now. He’s got a high minors strikeout pitch that won’t translate? Can you give us some other examples of guys who generated these kinds of strikeout totals in the high minors who couldn’t translate any of that success to MLB?
Klaw: History is littered with guys who had adequate K rates in the minors and couldn’t hold it in the majors. Sean Manaea punched out 146 in 121 innings in his first year in pro ball, but that hasn’t held up. I like De Leon as a prospect but see a limited ceiling because he lacks that out pitch – and you’re not telling me he has an out pitch, or what it is, but are just pointing to a stat line.

Eric: Is it time to move Jake Thompson to the big leagues? Doing really well in AAA
Klaw: I assume he’ll be up shortly. Another guy with good feel to pitch but probably lacking that swing-and-miss weapon.

Von Hayes: Hi Keith, do you believe Yoan Moncada will start next season in the big leagues? Also, what is your major league projection for Bobby Bradley? Can he be similar in production to Chris Carter?
Klaw: I don’t think Moncada will be in the big leagues to start next year nor should he be. Carter is a good comp for Bradley’s ceiling although I don’t think Bradley has that kind of present raw power – you’re projecting on it quite a bit there. I saw Bradley again the other day and his recognition is really poor.

Aaron C.: A’s SS Marcus Semien has worked hard to improve from a horrific defensive player to merely a below-average one. In addition, he’s enjoyed a nice HR spike in his age 25 season. Are these sustainable gains or — to his bat — is he still the same hitter (.307 OBP in 2016) that he’s always been with a sprinkling of fluky power?
Klaw: The defensive gains could be real – we’ve seen a lot of guys improve at the big-league level on defense because they’re getting good coaching for the first time. But the power looks like a stone fluke.

John: Why is Julio Teheran constanly on the trade rumor despite that his GM asserts he won’t be traded.
Klaw: Because writers need to eat.

Alan: I know you’ve said that Atlanta shouldn’t deal Teheran. What am I missing? He’s a pitcher who could fall apart at any point, they won’t be good for a couple years, and he could bring back the type of impact hitter they need. I know he’s cheap, but it seems shortsighted for them to keep him.
Klaw: I don’t agree with the premise. He could fall apart at any point only in the sense that any pitcher could – I don’t see any particular reason why he would. And I don’t know that he brings back the impact hitter they need, not by himself; he’s not getting you Benintendi, for example. He’s good, not great, probably still improving but not as good as his ERA might imply. And I think they need him to be respectable next year in their first year at the Big Con.

Alex: Dakota Hudson seems to have everything a front of the rotation starter needs- do you believe he has that high of a ceiling?
Klaw: He has nothing a front of the rotation starter needs. I’m not even 100% sold he’s a starter, given the delivery. I believe he should start as long as he’s able, because there’s a good chance he’s a mid-rotation guy, but front of the rotation? Top 20 in baseball? I don’t see that at all.

Tony: I’m traveling to Nashville for work in two weeks and staying at the Gaylord Opryland Resort. How effed am I with regards to doing anything interesting without having to spend $30+ for a cab? Based on an old review of yours I stumbled on when looking for restaurant recommendations, it seems like I’m pretty effed
Klaw: Yeah, pretty much. Or rent a car. Might be cheaper. Nashville’s a wonderful city, but the Gaylord is somewhere in the state of Franklin.

Max G.: While I agree with you that the Astros should move Correa to third and put Bregman at short, It isn’t going to happen. Do you think Bregman could handle CF?
Klaw: No. I think he could handle 3b or 2b but really right now he is their best SS option, and they’re going to have to have that conversation with Correa this winter.

Jon: Triston McKensie keeps trucking along with a sub 1.00 ERA. Have you heard anything about his stuff? Making a push to be a top 100 prospect over the winter?
Klaw: Heard he’s the most promising of all the arms on that MV roster but it’s still a lot of projection (meaning stuff to come in the future rather than present).

Eric: I am a fan of the Phillies selling high on their overachiever bullpen guys Gomez, Nerud and maybe Hernandez. But when is the line between getting value for them and holding onto a few so your bullpen isn’t completely decimated? Thanks!
Klaw: Neris is the one to keep, as he’s younger and costs nothing. The other two, ship ’em out, then start trying other arms from within the system to fill the middle relief roles and see who can handle it. Every system has failed starters who could at least find value in the bullpen – even so-so starters like Pinto, Lively, Pivetta could break into the majors in relief, with an eye toward maybe sliding one or more into the rotation next year.

Rickey: What is Ryon Healy’s ceiling and what are reasonable offensive and defensive expectations for A’s fans excited by his first week in Oakland?
Klaw: I think bench guy/below average regular.

Kraig: What is the difference between DJ Peterson this year and last year? His numbers this year are dramatically better.
Klaw: Repeated AA, and wasn’t even that great there. Now he’s in the PCL, which is full of hitters parks, with a .426 BABIP (including HR). You tell me.

Tom: How good is Yulieski Gurriel?
Klaw: I saw him in 2013 and he was awful – out of shape, moving slow, appeared not to have a position. But scouts who saw him last winter and execs who saw him work out this past month raved – body in shape, quick twitch returned, bat speed better, actions in the field better. So he might be a star today who turns into a bench guy by the end of the deal (when he’ll be at least 37).

Munchkin: Dom Smith: are his weight and body type concerning? Some people wonder if that might affect his health, flexibility and durability in the future, while others think that doesn’t matter as long as he keep hitting.
Klaw: I think he’s going to have to work more on his conditioning. He’s a great defensive 1b, but if he puts on 20 pounds he’s going to be a DH. Another reader asked about his recent surge and whether i’d slide him up the rankings (he was #44 last week) – no, although I’m very glad to see his performance, it’s over a fairly small sample and I prefer to see more extended success. The fact that he’s striking out so infrequently is probably the best aspect of this little run he’s on.

Derek: What’s Tohomas Szapucki’s realistic upside? Any chance you’ll be stopping by Bkln to see the loaded Cyclones team?
Klaw: Might be #2 starter upside. Not sure I’ll get up there as I have been spending most of my free time working on my book.

Jay_B: Can you tell us anything about Blackburn and Pries, the two lesser-known pieces of the Cubs-M’s trade?
Klaw: Blackburn’s a command RHP, had projection in HS but stuff never ticked up. Might be a 5th starter, probably less. Pries is an org starter but I wonder if there’s a thought to put him in the pen full-time and see if his fastball ticks up.

Nathan: What else will the new Twins’ GM need to do to right the ship? As a fan, I’m frustrated with the talent failing to develop and I’m wondering where the issue lies and what needs to be done to fix it. But getting a new GM is at least a start if they can hire the right one for the job and not Ryan 2.0
Klaw: They need to build an internal analytics department, first and foremost. You can’t operate in MLB right now unless you have that, if only for competitive intelligence purposes. I also have real questions about the MLB coaching staff, and the owner’s statement that Molitor is the manager next year would really concern me if I were a Twins fan. It’s a great job for someone – good market, great city, fantastic stadium, solid farm system, strong amateur scouting dept – but not if it comes with shackles.

Adam: Could it be argued that the Padres didn’t do enough to mitigate risk in the Pomeranz trade considering the volatility of young arms, especially in a one-for-one deal?
Klaw: I guess, but I don’t think you worry as much about mitigating risk when you’re rolling the dice on someone like Espinoza, who’s about as good an 18-year-old arm as we’ve seen in pro ball in a while.

DH: Boba Fett, sorry, Bo Bichette is off to a good start. You’ve been fairly bullish. What are the skills/results you’ll look for to indicate he’s on track to being the player you think he can be?
Klaw: If he keeps up the contact rate, I’ll be satisfied. But remember his brother, whom I was very down on as a draft prospect (not even on my top 100), had a huge GCL stint, and hasn’t done anything since.

Brett: Does Max Kepler becoming an All Star or even an every day regular help bring MLB popularity to Europe?
Klaw: I certainly hope so. I figure there are probably some good restaurants to check out in Munich.

Larry: When you rank Anderson Espinoza so high in your mid-season rankings, do you feel you accurately account for risk of such a young pitcher? Do you use a statistical model to properly value the risk/reward value?
Klaw: Yes, I feel I do. No, I don’t use a statistical model; such a model would be worthless because of the subjective nature of the inputs. GIGO.

Anonymous: Are you a believer in Verdugo (I do not recall your thoughts previously) and has his performance in AA at 20 solidified or changed your opinion. Is there a chance of All-Star game with him or is best case a first division regular? Thanks too for the board game reviews. My young-ins are thoroughly enjoying multiple suggestions.
Klaw: He was on my top 50 last week.

Ralph: From this year’s draft, who do you see having bigger upside, Josh Lowe or Alex Kiriloff?
Klaw: Kiriloff, although I understand why some people would argue Lowe.

Ralph: Why do you think Bryan Reynolds dropped so far in the draft? Seemed pretty polished for a college bat. Do you think he ends up a major leaguer?
Klaw: Strikeout rate. Has plate discipline, but needs to be more aggressive when ahead in the count. Jeren Kendall is going to face a similar criticism next year but is more athletic overall and I think is a 1-1 candidate.

Andrew: What are the Rangers doing with Profar? He started hot but now it seems like he starts once a week and is otherwise a pinch hitter? Is he good enough to contribute now or just a trade chip not being showcased?
Klaw: I think he’s good enough to play every day, and I assume now that Fielder is out he will do so.

Nick: Did Tyler Naquin show big raw power as a prospect, or is his performance thus far really completely out of nowhere?
Klaw: I think it’s really out of nowhere. Glad they gave him the opportunity, though.

D: I bought your Allen and Ginter card off eBay… Is there somewhere I could send it for you to sign?
Klaw: Yes, to me c/o ESPN, 1 ESPN Plaza, Bristol CT 06010. A couple of people have found my home address and sent something here, but I do ask everyone to respect my family’s privacy and I will not return anything that comes here.

Scrapper: Who says no to Eloy Jiminez straight up for Andrew Miller?
Klaw: I would think the Cubs would.

Scrapper: For those of us who care about things, hate political rhetoric and anti-science jibberish, this last year has been particularly frustrating. Has the last year affected how you view our country?
Klaw: Yes, almost entirely for the worse. I did not think this white-resentment strain of politics would be as popular as it is, but apparently I was quite out of touch.

Hal Steinbrenner: Do you see future stardom out of Ronald Guzman or Tyler O’Neill?
Klaw: More like future everydaydom.

Brian: I was wondering if you might comment on the differences between Joey Gallo and Dylan Cozens? I know people have said that Cozens has massive raw power like Gallo, and I was curious as to what the difference that has you thinking Gallo is at minimum a .230-.240 hitter w/big power and Cozens is something significantly less.
Klaw: Gallo is a way better athlete and a better pure hitter. Cozens’ year is skewed by playing at Reading and he doesn’t hit LHP at all.

Mike: Do you think Tyler Skaggs will pitch well coming back from injury for the Angels?
Klaw: I’m optimistic. Was always a fan, going back to HS, except for the year when he was with Arizona and they decided to screw up his delivery.

Drew: If the Twins called you tomorrow and offered you the GM job would the idea that Molitor can’t be fired be a road block? If you took the job would you trade Joe Mauer for just about anything? One of my favorite Twins but he’s not going to be on the next playoff team and I’d rather see Sano/Park/Vargas/whoever play 1B/DH. If there are no takers, would you cut him loose?
Klaw: Speaking strictly hypothetically – I don’t expect this call and don’t want anyone to think I’m campaigning for any job here – I would say yes, it’s a roadblock, and would want that on the table for discussion. I’d be willing to sit down and make the case for a managerial change, not just that I want to hire my own guy for its own sake. As for Mauer, I think he’d be close to untradeable, I doubt he or ownership would be amenable to a trade, and I don’t know enough about his health to guess what kind of player he’ll be going forward.

John: You listed Matt Strahm as your sleeper in the KC system and he’s doing quite well in Double-A. Potential #3 starter? Or too optimistic?
Klaw: I think I had him as a potential 4, but I wouldn’t argue the point here. Has touched 96, will pitch at average, curve is a potential out pitch and kills LHB.

Jack: What are your thoughts on Giants prospects Austin Slater and Steven Duggar?
Klaw: Both are probably bench guys/4th OFs, although I think Slater could be more if he can make more hard contact. He can hit, but I would bet his exit velocity isn’t very good.

Todd: Do you think we’ll get to see JP Crawford and Nick Williams in Philly this season?
Klaw: Probably both. I would hope this silliness with the AAA manager benching Williams is over now.

David: Cheslor Cuthbert legitimate? Or just a fringe guy?
Klaw: I have always loved his swing. I think he can be an average defender at 3b. But he either has to take a walk or develop some above-average power to be more than a fringe guy. I’d probably still bet on him because I just really like the swing and I think where there’s this kind of feel to hit there’s always hope.

Pete: Would you say that your ceiling has changed at all for Conforto with his recent struggles? Or is it just an injury that is delaying the true breakout?
Klaw: Nothing has changed except that Terry Collins appears to have lost his mind.

Kay: I try not to scout the stat line – but often that’s the only way I can check in on most of these guys. What stats are MOST useful in checking progress of MiLB players?
Klaw: There’s no easy answer to that. It depends a bit on the player’s tools/skills, and also what you might want to see improve. So for Joey Gallo, we know he has power, but we want to see his K% improving. Same for an Aaron Judge. But I mentioned Slater above – his K% is fine, and probably always will be, so for him it’s other things like more extra-base hits or more walks.

JG: In your humble opinion, who’s the best person (keeping Kim Ng in mind) that the Twins could bring in as the GM?
Klaw: Aaron Gleeman mentioned Jason McLeod on Twitter yesterday, and I seconded it. He’s got a good track record of success and has worked in several analytically-minded organizations, so he should be able to come in and help build that department. (I view that as the single most important criterion for the Twins in hiring a new GM. If you can’t build that capability, you can’t be the GM.)

JWR: Are you watching the conventions this year? Why or why not?
Klaw: I never watch that stuff. I’m voting straight-line Democrat this year and I still won’t watch the DNC. Bunch of rah-rah bullshit.

Andy: Strange as it seems, picking up Jean Segura hasn’t been terrible for the D-Backs. He’s walking slightly more than before and looking like an adequate fielding 2B. There’s still major questions about the process in getting him, but he hasn’t been their issue this year.
Klaw: He’s been fine, not great, still not a good leadoff hitter, but they’ve had much bigger problems. The problem was, as you said, the process – they gave up way too much, especially given how bad he’d been the previous two-plus years.

addoeh: Do you think Christopher Correa is the fall guy or did he act alone?
Klaw: I have been surprised all along that he was the only person accused in this, but absent any other evidence how could I claim otherwise?

Ray: Any chance Willie Calhoun can stay at 2B? Can Francisco Mejia be an Impact fantasy catcher down the road?
Klaw: I think Calhoun’s a LF. Can hit, though. Yes on Mejia.

UGW: Erick Fedde is on a heater… 3 ER in his last 38 IP. # 3 starter?
Klaw: Reliever. Lacks a third pitch. Not sold on the delivery.

Jacob: Jose Berrios continues to dominate in AAA. Have you heard any reports of him refining his stuff to allow him more success in the majors?
Klaw: No, sounds like the same guy, too good for AAA, needs to pitch in the majors even if it means struggling now. Gotta learn to get those guys out at some point.

Anonymous: Mandated apparently said they’re looking into limiting the use of relief pitchers somehow (due to speed-of-game and effectiveness concerns). Good idea?
Klaw: I assume that’s Manfred, and I said on the BBTN podcast today I’m not a big fan of changes that materially alter the game on the field for marketing reasons. If teams had to carry fewer active relievers per game, however, that might accomplish the same goal without limits like saying a reliever has to face a minimum of three batters.

Patrick: Keith, I’ve got no place to go, so Klawchat question! For three-year college players, is being assigned to rookie ball seen as a step backwards? Should these players be skilled enough for low or high A immediately?
Klaw: Good three-year college players should be able to go right to low-A after the draft. I understand sometimes players go elsewhere for other reasons (taxes, geography, working with a specific coach), but when they’re placed too low it makes their performance suspect.

Jonah: Have your thoughts changed on Travis Macgregor? Seems to be doing very well in the GCL and making a name for himself
Klaw: He’s thrown 8 innings. What?

Jim: You said earlier this year Beede’s velo was down, is it back? Has Bickford improved the breaking ball?
Klaw: His velo was down because he was throwing sinkers, not four-seamers. He’s throwing the four-seamer again, so the velo is there. Bickford you saw at the Futures Game – his velocity really is down and I don’t think there’s good enough secondaries there. He’s very available in trade.

Jay: Kevin Newman or Gleyber Torres?
Klaw: Newman is the higher probability guy, Torres has much higher upside.

DHS: Wilco is coming out with a new record in September. Are you a fan? If so, your favorite record by them?
Klaw: Nope, sorry.

Matt: I remember you were a fan of Mike Folynewicz when he was coming up. It’s been a rough few years of development, but he looks to have turned a corner of late in terms of harnessing his absurd stuff. Do you think he can be a legit mid-rotation type long term?
Klaw: I think he can be a #2 or better.

Chris S.: Hi Keith, thanks for the weekly chats. Logistics question: with 400k followers on Twitter, how do you keep up? I imagine you get bombarded all day long with a mixture of intelligent discourse and trolling. You’ve responded to me a handful of times and I’m amazed I can get through the chattel. How do you manage it?
Klaw: It’s becoming more and more difficult, but I use the mute and block features there very heavily to try to keep my replies manageable. People who troll or insult me are just wasting my time, and clearing them out makes it more likely I’ll see stuff I really want to see – stuff that’s worth the response, whether it’s there, here, or somewhere else.

Shining Light: Did someone run over your puppy today? Good God you’re in a bad mood.
Klaw: Right, you read a bunch of chat questions and answers and decided what kind of mood I’m in. That’s clever. Go away.

Tony: Forrest Whitley is a big Texas RHP. Build reminds me a little of Tyler Kolek. Is a 3rd starter too much to rely on for Whitley?
Klaw: Built like Kolek, WAY better pitcher today. Kolek was a breaking point for me – I’m done overrating the big kids who throw hard but aren’t much in the way of pitchers. I missed on too many of them over the years and I should have learned my lesson earlier.

Tony Alva, Dogtown, CA: How high could you have seen Brandon McIlwain being drafted if he played his senior baseball season instead of leaving early for Univ. of South Carolina?
Klaw: He was a first-rounder. MLB teams don’t particularly care for that because it doesn’t work.

Tony: Reasonable expectations for Jordan Sheffield?
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever in the long run. Maybe a great one, but short RHP with rough arm action usually ends up in the pen.

Tony: Nolan Jones was high on a lot of draft rankings but then fell pretty far in the draft. Reasonable ceiling for him?
Klaw: Fell only due to money. I think he has star potential.

Tom: Verdugo was your top 50, but there seems to be others who think he’ll end up as a tweener. Can you see that viewpoint at all?
Klaw: No, I can’t.

Oren: Justin Smoak – he’s bad, right?
Klaw: He’s one tick above replacement level. You don’t give that a two-year deal.

Zach: Hey Keith, I used to cover basketball for a living and it’s pretty accepted that teams have access to a lot of sabermetrics that fans/journalists don’t. Do MLB teams also have inside analysis/metrics that greatly differ from what’s available on say, fangraphs? It strikes me that the individual nature of baseball would make the gap between insider/outsider knowledge less pronounced. Thanks, always appreciate the chats.
Klaw: Yes, they do, and they’re not going to tell us about it.

Billy and the Boingers: Favorite Bloom County Character or Storyline?
Klaw: I loved everything with the Banana Jr. 5000.

Cal: Does Nick Gordon still profile as an everyday SS?
Klaw: Yes, I think he does. Probably a solid-average regular or a little better.

BlueInSF: With MLB getting younger generally + the latest knowledge showing that defense and pitching peak much earlier than previously suspected, shouldn’t we logically see the draft shade more towards HS over college prospects?
Klaw: No, because in that case college guys should be able to come quickly to the big leagues. And they have.

Jeff: Cashner for Yohander Mendez and Ronald Guzman…who says no?
Klaw: Rangers would say no. And so would I.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: How do you differentiate trolling and just good-natured giving you a hard time? (psst…I rely on the latter one)
Klaw: Judgment call, but when in doubt, I mute. Think about how many replies I get – and all the comments/feedback I get through outlets other than Twitter, too. If I don’t attempt to curate, it all becomes useless to me. If I mute someone by mistake, it’s a shame, but it’s probably not doing any significant harm. And I’ve always unblocked people who’ve asked me to.

Glen: Can Gregorius handle 3rd base if/when Mateo is ready?
Klaw: I’m not moving Gregorius for Mateo. Didi’s going to be the better defender.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be at the Under Armour Game at Wrigley on Saturday and hope to see some of you there.