Keith Law: True identity hidden inside secret tabloids. Klawchat.

Mickey Callaway: Given the silly ball, are groundball pitchers like Stroman more valuable than in a normal environment?
Keith Law: I don’t think so offhand, but that’s a question someone could answer with empirical evidence.

Ben: Have you read (or do you plan on reading) The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton, winner of the 2013 Man Booker? If you haven’t yet gotten to it, I’d offer a slight nudge against any aspirations to do so. Too fat for such little character depth has me questioning that Booker panel..
Keith Law: I haven’t because of its weight (been reading shorter books this summer or e-books since I’m traveling/going to games a lot).

James: Thoughts on the Blue Jays rookie hitters so far?
Keith Law: I’m buying Vlad and Bichette, of course. Gurriel’s power is real, not sure there’s much OBP there. That’s it.

Moe Mentum: Adam Haseley – SSS, but is he performing above, at, or below your expectations in the majors so far? Anything sustainable as a long-term starting/platoon OF?
Keith Law: Probably above expectations. Just an extra OF.

Joe: Can you think a reason why Chris Davis is still on the Orioles? The only reason I have heard is that he isn’t blocking anyone, but even though that is true it is a silly reason.
Keith Law: I would just cut him at this point. He’s below r-level, never getting better, and not worth the roster spot.

zuke354: Is it ok to start believing in Arozarena? Just a little bit?
Keith Law: I think the .432 BABIP might be both a fluke and driven by the silly ball in AAA.

Bob: Can Isaac Paredes ride his contact ability/bad body combo to become an above average infielder at either 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that. Maybe an average regular. No projection there.

zuke354: How long before somebody skips the walmarts and opens fire in a crowded stadium?
Keith Law: It’d be hard to get a weapon into a major league stadium, but the minors … there are simply too many guns out there. It seems inevitable that this will happen in an extremely crowded place and we’ll see 100+ dead.

Chris: Mets should offer Wheeler QO regardless, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Cal Raleigh has started to hit in AA. Can he be an average regular?
Keith Law: I would buy that.

Robert: Is Luis Campusano on the short list of top C prospects behind Adley, Bart, Ruiz and may he be a first div regular?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Behind Cartaya, I think.

ndrah: some talk about the twins calling up one or two of their top pitching prospects this fall. Do you think Graterol could contribute?
Keith Law: Maybe in relief?

Robert: I was pleasantly surprised to see X Edwards on your top 50. Do you see more upside with him long term than Urias?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Urias is more ready Edwards has more upside.

Christopher: Should I expect a reasonably intelligent 6 year old (my son) to have reasonable chance of being able to play Splendor?
Keith Law: My daughter played it competently at age 7.

JSG: What do the Dodgers do with Gavin Lux? He appears, judging from his small AAA stat line, to be MLB-ready or close to it. But Seager can’t be moved to third while Turner’s there, and Turner is still productive.
Keith Law: Second base?

Jason: Is Anthony Santander just a guy having a hot streak, or is he something more?
Keith Law: Something more. Might be a regular there. Shouldn’t his nickname be “Banco” by now?

Devin: Have the Nats pushed Luis Garcia too aggressively? Only 19 put struggling at AA 258/285/309 at AA
Keith Law: They have pushed him aggressively, but I also don’t find any support for him from scouts.

Allison: Thanks for allowing a glimpse into your life away from baseball in your newsletters. The benefit of hindsight notwithstanding, do you understand argument (not necessarily agree with) that the A’s were prudent in taking high risk prospects like Austin Beck and Kylar Murray with consecutive top-10 picks because they couldn’t sign players with tools like than in an open market? Do you see a 10% chance that Beck could ever perform well enough to justify his high draft position? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do understand the philosophy, but perhaps not those specific picks. What happened with Murray was a bit out of nowhere – I don’t think anybody saw him as a first-round NFL talent until last fall – but I’m not sure he was really a top ten MLB talent anyway.

MHG: What is the spread of what teams spend on scouting and player development? Tigers can’t seem to do either. Is it lack of resources or personnel or both?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s financial. I think in this case it’s philosophical.

Aaron C.: Do you have the correct opinion on the movie “Field of Dreams” like Craig Calcaterra or do you like it?
Keith Law: I like it. It’s fine, not my favorite baseball movie, definitely on the sappy side, but it’s fine.

Fan of team you hate: How have the reports been on Trevor Rogers? Surface numbers look solid.
Keith Law: Reports have also been solid, not spectacular, but solid enough to say 4th starter.

Uli Jon: Just returned from a trip to Colombia and could not recommend it more (well at least Medellin and Cartagena, Bogota is just ok). What is the baseball program like there? Obviously soccer is king, but from what I understand there’s a bit of baseball on the Caribbean coast.
Keith Law: Would love to go there for vacation or work. Good baseball there, just not enough volume of players yet to think of it in the same breath as DR/Venezuela, but it’s coming on.

Tribe called jest: Aaron Bracho seems to be holding his own in the AZL, anything to get excited about? Thank you.
Keith Law: Yes, wrote him up positively in March when I saw him.

BigDaddeh: Was Frazier+Schmidt fair for Robbie Ray? Or did Dbacks truly need more from NYY
Keith Law: What is Frazier’s upside at this point? Can you bet on him becoming a regular? I wouldn’t.
Keith Law: And Schmidt’s delivery has always been a big red flag for me even before he had TJ.

Todd: Who do you ultimately think becomes the better ML pitcher between Sixto and Edward Cabrera?
Keith Law: I have Sixto ahead of Edward right now, but a healthy Garrett is ahead of both of them.

Ben: Is Luis Arraez a potential GUY? The Twins’ coaching staff just gushes about him but he looks kind of like a slap hitter with limited upside. He also seems to have taken Schoop’s job.
Keith Law: I think a good utility guy.

Derek: Do you envision Brock Burke as a future rotation piece for the Rangers?
Keith Law: Sure.

Jason: Seems like the Mets have found a hot streak, but that the the front office still has no real long term plan. Just a little luck.
Keith Law: And a very soft schedule the last month.

Nick: Seth Corry is currently having a breakout season. What’s his ceiling? TOR potential?
Keith Law: No. Mid-rotation potential.

Pramit: Can you recall a GM who’s made as many absurd comments talking up an organization the way Ross Atkins has?
Keith Law: He’s really bad at the PR part of his job. Saying less would be better.

Jeffrey : What do you think about the hard and fast July 31 trade deadline? With all the brains in the front offices I’m surprise that waivers is complicated. Is that why they change the rules?
Keith Law: Preventing teams from trading DFA’d players in August is both dumb and regressive. They’ll need to fix that.

J: This isn’t a question, this is a comment. Every time someone is a dipshit about you being light on someone you should just cough and say you had Tatis, Jr. in your top 50 when he wasn’t in BA’s Padres top 20.
Keith Law: One thing I’ve learned in this job is that far more people will point out my misses than will acknowledge my hits. I had people argue I was wrong about Zack Godley, Tony Kemp, and Maikel Franco when those guys had brief periods of productivity, and not one of them came back when those players were DFA’d in the last few weeks to say they were wrong.

Carl: Thoughts on Joey Cantillo? Does he need to add some velocity to be a guy? His numbers/age seem impressive.
Keith Law: He does need to add velocity to be a GUY, still potentially a major leaguer as is.

Jason: Early thoughts on Unbearable Lightness? The movie with Day Lewis, Binoche, and Olin is terrific, but loses Kundera’s philosophical views.
Keith Law: Almost done; this sort of novel is a bit out of my wheelhouse as I have so little background in philosophy. Kundera renounced the movie for the reason you mentioned. I’m moving through the book rather quickly – 50 pages left, trying to finish before vacation – but I haven’t connected with whatever he’s trying to say.

Joseph: What are your thoughts on Brailyn Marquez? Not sure how excited to be about him.
Keith Law: Every scout I’ve asked about him has been positive but said he’s a high-end reliever rather than a starter.

Mike: Ryan McMahon has been decent for Col this season, what do you think his offensive output ultimately is like in his prime?
Keith Law: I’m still shocked he strikes out as often as he does, but he can be productive at this level. I think he’s a .500+ SLG guy by next year.

BigDaddeh: Mlb game at Field of Dreams site. Cool, tacky or eh whatever?
Keith Law: I’m out. Play these games where we can grow the audience. Maybe that’s overseas, but what about putting games in potential expansion markets, like Portland or Austin or Charlotte? Bring MLB games to markets that typically don’t get to see them.

Kevin: Could Dalbec next year hit 30 HR with a 340 OBP in the majors?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that OBP.

Jason: Did Zaidi make a big mistake in not selling everything, including Bumgarner? The hot streak has faded and they just got swept by the Nationals.
Keith Law: I think they should have sold everything, but who knows what ownership told Zaidi to do.

John: I read this evaluation of Dustin May earlier today – how many people in the industry think like this? “He’s not part of the exciting crop of starters that present legit upside for years to come. His sinker has life at 95+, but he didn’t have great command with the pitch. His cutter is solid and was effective here against the lowly Cardinals, but that’s it. His curveball is nothing to write home about, and I’m worried the heater is too susceptible to blowup games without enough upside.”
Keith Law: Nobody. That’s a big miss.

Adam: Like the promotions of Pache, Waters and Anderson to AAA? Would Pache, Waters and Acuna be the best defensive OF in baseball?
Keith Law: Three guys who could play CF.

Felix: Do you have any information on Tahnaj Thomas?
Keith Law: Up to 100 without command.

Andrew: KLaw: “Il meglio è l’inimico del bene” – i mean, no philosophical chasm across Dem candidates is as consequential or enormous as that between any of them and the current president – surely people will understand this by Nov ’20 and do the right thing, right? I’m disturbed by those who stubbornly go with the “my candidate or bust” stance…seems selfish, short-sighted and, well, stupid.
Keith Law: I got some of this today from Mariane Williamson supporters, who appear to all be made of stardust and oblivious to the strongly anti-science views she’s espoused for thirty years, to say nothing of her outright promotion of pseudoscientific bullshit or bigoted statements against people with disabilities. They don’t care. They want to talk about peace and love and good happiness stuff. The fucking mediots falling for this shit – AGAIN – should be ashamed. Cover the candidates who talk policy, not the ones who shoot rainbows out of their asses.

Corey B: Braxton Garrett is producing in A but is 22. What should I make of the success?
Keith Law: Age is largely immaterial for pitchers. Also, he’s 21 by seasonal age (turned 22 last week), and in high-A, which is appropriate for a 21-year-old player.

Aaron Houston, Tx: Klaw, I mentor a young college bound boy who recently changed his career path from engineering (my field) to journalism. Can you provide a few insights where I can advise him to get his feet wet. I feel blogging could be a good start. Maybe some volunteer work for a local paper or club. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
Keith Law: Eek, tough field to get into right now. Unfortunately, I didn’t come up through any sort of traditional career path, so I don’t know how people typically get into journalism.

romorr: Dean Kremer has looked sharp of late, is he still back end? What could he do to raise his profile, if he can that is. TY
Keith Law: Still a back end guy with that cross-fire delivery.

romorr: Most Oriole fans love Mountcastle, but I can’t get over the 3-4% walk rate. He is 22, but isn’t that a harder skill to teach? Just worried he is going to have to hit .290-.300 to have a respectable OBP.
Keith Law: Unlikely he gets to the point he can be a regular. I know some people were angry I didn’t have him on my top 100, but he clearly didn’t belong between low on-base skills and lack of position.

David (OR): Hi, Keith. Thanks for everything. Will Smith (Dodgers) – what’s his future with Keibert Ruiz on his heels? Are his solid numbers offensively just a result of SSS or is he a legitimate first-division starter?
Keith Law: Smith is an All-Star. Ruiz is probably trade bait at this point, but a very good prospect in his own right.

Brendan: Is Dante Bichette Jr a future major leaguer?
Keith Law: Org guy.

Robbie: How big is the gap between Nick Allen and Nick Madrigal? Am I way off in thinking that Allen is underrate estimated as a prospect?
Keith Law: Not that big. Not sure I would have Madrigal above Allen, since the latter can play a good SS.

Adam: Alex Jackson isnt setting the world on fire in AAA but if he can produce that stat line isnt he a MLB Regular at catcher?
Keith Law: He’d have to be a good enough defensive catcher to do that.

Oscar: Is it time to accept that Buxton’s body is just not going to cooperate with him? I love seeing him play, but it saddens me to think that injuries are going to rob him of the opportunity to do so.
Keith Law: No.

Dean: Have you heard from anyone inside baseball that that there will be an effort to revert to the pre-2016 baseball? This silliness can’t continue. The baseball currently being used in MLB is making a bigger mockery of statistics then PEDs ever did. Agree?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything along those lines – MLB does not seem to want to discuss the altered baseball, at least not in public. I agree it’s making a mockery of the game, not just stats, but in trying to evaluate players … imagine being a scout who’s assigned the AA and AAA affiliates of a specific team. You see the same hitter at both levels, but in AA he’s nothing special and in AAA he’s launching balls over the fence. How do you write *that* up?

Cashman: Garcia or Gil long term?
Keith Law: Garcia. I haven’t seen Gil myself but I hear he’s more likely a pen guy. Contreras > Gil right now.

Phanatic: Been hearing positive things on Phillies OF Johan Rojas. Got any intel on him?
Keith Law: Good feel to hit, with some speed and a good arm, not sure if he’s a CF in the long run.
Keith Law: A real prospect, though.

Ryan: The Brewers Devin Williams a legit late inning RP prospect, or more of a middle reliever?
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect as a reliever, but I don’t feel confident saying exactly what sort of reliever.

Graham: Why is Joey Bart so well regarded when reports generally hold that he possesses 2 subpar tools (defense and hit)?
Keith Law: His defense is subpar? What?

Craig: Keith, what you got on DBacks OF Alex Thomas? Just promoted to High A which I believe makes him one of, if not the youngest player in the entire A+ level.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50…

Ryan R: What is Jesse Winker’s ceiling? Guy consistently puts up a high OBP but defensive metrics haven’t been kind to him. Is his offensive profile strong enough to carry him into a everyday lineup spot?
Keith Law: He’ll never be a good defender, most likely, but I think he’s capable of getting on base like he did in 2018 and hitting for 200+ ISO like he did this year.
Keith Law: That’s an everyday player.

Mike: Jeff McNeil seems like an odd situation with him being 27 and finally being in the big leagues/MLB. What held him back from being a prospect?? General health or did he just improve?
Keith Law: Missed several years – 2.5? – to injuries. Also has one tool, really, the hit tool, specifically his ability to put the ball in play, which tends to be harder to scout/not something you want to bank on in the absence of any other tools.
Keith Law: I know he’s a fan favorite but by the time he’s arb-eligible he’ll be 30, and that skill he has does not typically age well.

Andrew : Giants are apparently promoting Ramos to AA today. Is this a little too aggressive?
Keith Law: Yikes. After last year, I wouldn’t be rushing him up the ladder.

Beau: Why did the Padres give up on Franmil? Will it come back to haunt?
Keith Law: Low OBP/improved pitch recognition from last fall hasn’t held up, also a poor defensive OF who may have to go to 1b or DH. I get it. They have better OF options coming and already have two 1b who don’t hit enough for the spot.

Mary: What is Thairo Estrada’s upside? He looked good in small sample size
Keith Law: Just saw him again on Tuesday – I really like him, probably as a utility infielder, just a really solid player who’ll put the ball in play and help out at 3 positions.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter, or is he in the right spot as a reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever for me.

Gun Control: PASS ME NOW PLEASE!
Keith Law: Mitch says no, while counting his NRA money.

Cole Fired: Do you think given how his profile fits their organizational philosophy (spin rate, k’s, etc) and his age fits their contending window the Yankees should aggressively pursue Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes and I would bet they will.

Joe: Did the Tigers do the right thing trading Castellanos? Seems like the compensatory pick value may have been higher had they simply kept him and made a QO. Admittedly though, some of the new QO rules have my mind twisted in a pretzel so I may be misunderstanding all this.
Keith Law: I think they should have traded him sooner, but the trade was probably fine.

Dylan : Could you see a guy like Micker Adolfo or Luis Basabe get called up in September due to them being on the 40 man already and only having 2 option years remaining
Keith Law: Not for that reason, no. Adolfo could end up getting a fourth option in time.

BBTN: It’s really been a pleasure listening to you on the baseball tonight podcast the last two days, thanks for doing it
Keith Law: My pleasure – always good to get back with Eric again, plus I had two longtime friends on as guests in Alex Speier (buy his new book Homegrown, it’s good) and Joe Sheehan.

Craig: How come Joey Bart and Carter Kieboom did not make your midseason top 50? What are the shortcomings?
Keith Law: Neither was really close. I had more than 50 players ahead of each.

Jeff: JD Davis! Has no position but bat seems legit, right?
Keith Law: SSS.

Zihuatanejo: Austin Barnes almost immediately started killing it in AAA after looking done in the bigs. What are the odds he be a good (or at least serviceable) major league hitter?
Keith Law: Near nil.

Ted: You were on Balazovic as a stud pretty early. What are your thoughts on Jhoan Duran?
Keith Law: That one ‘splinker’ pitch he throws is legit. I hear some starter, some reliever; depends on whether you think that one pitch is enough of a carrying tool to let him turn a lineup over 3x.

Rahn: Sorry if I’m late to your opinion on this, but re: the Pirates holding onto Vasquez, what have you heard/read about the package(s) the Pirates were sifting through from L.A., Atlanta, etc. and why in the world did they not deal him?
Keith Law: No idea. I try not to get too deep into the rumor weeds because some of it is always bullshit.

Eric: I went to journalism school at Florida. My advice to Aaron’s mentee would be to major in something else (polsci, biz, etc), and minor in/take classes in journalism. Much more productive route I wish I chose.
Keith Law: I did wonder if developing subject matter expertise would be more useful. Hell, I took one writing class after high school, only because my college required it, and got a fucking B+ because the clown who taught it (an adjunct) was a poet, not a prose writer, and struggled with the basics of syntax and punctuation.

Will: What kind of player do you expect Isan Diaz to be? Is he another guy that’s tough to evaluate based on this season due to the AAA/MLB baseball?
Keith Law: We have some history on him, though, that says he should be at least a regular, chance for an above-average one.

Mike: Brudsar graterol – solid number 2 in his prime?
Keith Law: Uh, no. No.

westin: yordan alvarez incapable of playing 1B, or Astros just being overly cautious?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH only. Bad body, doesn’t move well.

Chip: Surprised by Will Smith’s start, or has he always had this power?
Keith Law: Dodgers altered his swing to unlock more power before 2018. He’s legit.

Jason: Has Cartaya progressed to the point the Dodgers would be better served dealing Ruiz in the winter to help an area of need?
Keith Law: IMO, yes, he has.

Roger: How did you rate James Kaprielian before the arm injuries?
Keith Law: Potential #1 starter.

Roger Megardy: Does Pete Fairbanks have a future as a legit MLB reliever?
Keith Law: A reliever, yes. A good one, I don’t know.

Joel: Every prospect site I check still has Travis Swaggerty as a promising prospect. I’m scouting the stat line, but I see almost nothing to recommend him as a top prospect dating back to his junior year in a non-elite conference. Can Swaggerty actually be an impact outfielder in the majors?
Keith Law: At this point he won’t be on my top 100. College products pretty much have to hit right away.

JT: You’ve been down on Lamet because of his 2 pitch repertoire (and down is of course relative). Is his breakout as a SP real, or is he still consigned to the late innings with that FB/SL combo?
Keith Law: He’s had a breakout? He’s a two pitch guy, still, and as a result lefties are killing him.

Josh Nelson: What did you like, and dislike, about watching Luis Robert recently?
Keith Law: I disliked all the swinging and missing. I liked that he was actually in the lineup, though. That’s a welcome change for me.

Pat: As to the “open fire in a stadium” question, you don’t need to get in to the stadium. A bigger concern to me is someone opening fire just outside a football or baseball stadium right about 15-30 minutes before gametime when everyone is being herded like cattle thru a few entrances.
Keith Law: I feel like some other writers pointed that out when MLB started this security theater bullshit of metal detectors … they just create vulnerabilities outside the park rather than inside.
Keith Law: I really don’t think I’d attend many MLB games if I had to pay for them and go as a fan, not as a member of the press. The experience of getting to and into most ballparks is too onerous.

El Zilcho: Has there been any change in perception of the Mariners’ player development system over the last couple of years? It seems like it was terrible for so long…
Keith Law: I mean, they have better players now. That sort of helps.

Chris: Regarding today’s ICE raids in MS, why focus on the immigrant worker and not the employer (prosecution is very rare)? I personally don’t approve of either, but if you believe immigration is a problem it seems more pragmatic to focus enforcement efforts at the massive corporations.
Keith Law: Massive corporations tend to donate more to political candidates than undocumented workers do. I think that might be a factor.

Kevin: Would you consider it an accomplishment or a failure if the Dodgers made it to the WS 3 straight years but lost every year
Keith Law: I would. I know Eric said on the pod this morning he would think that would be seen as a failure.

Chris: Amed Rosario turning a corner? I’m still surprised at how bad is defense is, can you explain how scouts missed that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss it; it has been markedly worse this year than ever before. I don’t know what the Mets are or aren’t doing but it seems like that has to be on the coaching staff.

Jason: Is Trent Grisham legit?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m in.

Chris: Is Tim Beckham’s career over?
Keith Law: Remember those two weeks when Rays fans were apoplectic they traded him and people thought the Orioles had gotten a steal? That was fun.

Kevin: I know Jake Rogers isn’t going be an All-Star but do you think he is a starting C
Keith Law: Maybe with the defense but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Chris: ETAs for Peterson and Szapucki? Also is Kevin Smith any good?
Keith Law: Next year for Peterson, maybe 2021 for Szapucki, and I have never liked Smith’s movies.

Mucho: How do you manage to get so much done (work, family, reading a thousand books)? Any tips?
Keith Law: I don’t watch much TV at all and now I’m spending less time online (especially Twitter).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: I’m always curious about discrepancies in rankings (i.e Garcia). You–and people you talk to–have him down. But evaluators at BA, for example, have him in the 2nd half of the Top-100. What do they see you don’t, or vice versa?
Keith Law: No idea. You’d have to ask them. I’ve seen Garcia and talked to many scouts about him. He’s a nice player, but not a top 100 guy. He’s just young.

JT: I still regret that the Jays didn’t get Dom Smith out of the Mets even at the cost of having added another player to the deal. Rowdy is another case you could use as a feather in the cap, by the by.
Keith Law: People complaining to Mike Wilner (a friend from my Toronto days) about my takes on Tellez was fun.

spcohn: Moniak has really picked up performance and has very good numbers (excluding a April) for a 21 yo in AA. I know that you had been down on him in the past…change your view?
Keith Law: Nope. Saw him a month ago. He’s not good. Reading is the best hitter’s environment in the Eastern League, BTW. Didn’t you try to gotcha me over Deivy Grullon back in the spring when he had a hot start? He’s at .236/.314/.390 since June 1st and still can’t catch.

Brian: I’m wondering if you read any of the reporting (especially Matt Gelb’s piece in the Athletic) on why the Phillies are so aggressive pushing kids to Lakewood after you questioned the move. I’d be curious as to your thoughts on their rationale.
Keith Law: I’ll have to check that out, but the proof is in the pudding: I don’t see any players who’ve benefited from that aggressive promotion philosophy in their system. Their Luis Garcia, who does have tools, looks woefully overmatched, and should have been sent down to Williamsport (which he skipped) a month ago. I have seen him three times already and just feel bad for the kid.

Mickey Callaway: Marianne Williamson has policies worth hearing on reparations. She’s not a good candidate, but she’s leading that charge.
Keith Law: She doesn’t belong on the stage. The Democrats are the one party that thinks science is real. Putting an anti-science crank on the debate stages merely cedes one of the party’s actual advantages.

Jay: Joe Ryan, Rays. Decimating Hi-A ball. Aberration, or for real?
Keith Law: He’s killed one tenth of A-ball hitters? Damn. He’s a back-end starter – a real prospect, just not much upside. Tommy Rancel just saw him a few weeks ago but I don’t know if he wrote him up.

Adam: it seems Padres are planning big offseason moves, Everyone other than Gore and Tatis considered untouchable to you?
Keith Law: Patiño too.

Jim: I know you’re not super high on him, but just curious what your thoughts are on Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: Soft regular. Saw him again Tuesday, will write that game up this afternoon.

Nick G: Not a question, but the difference in where you rank Carter Keiboom and the rest of prospect evaluators is large. If I read correctly, you have Carter outside your top 100 but many outlets have him in their top 25. Not a criticism, I just find that interesting since I typically lean to your opinion.
Keith Law: I don’t know what they think of him. I see a non-shortstop without speed or power. He can hit but he’d have to have a 65 hit tool to be a top 25 prospect for me.

CB: Will we ever see Alex Reyes after this latest setback/reoccurrence of shoulder pain?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “never,” but his odds keep going down. I did not like his delivery when I first saw him, and when I last saw him this spring it was the same. Short stride guys tend to get hurt.

Larry: It looks like Zack Collins made a swing adjustment. How do you think it will affect his future outlook?
Keith Law: I just saw him Tuesday. He did not make a swing adjustment. He was also atrocious behind the plate.

Krontz: My 6 yr old son loves Kingdomino and does well with it. Any other game recommendations based on that for him?
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear that – it’s such a good gateway game. Splendor might work. Ticket to Ride or its kids’ version First Journey would be on my list of suggestions. Lost Cities is good if he’s comfortable with numbers (you really just have to be able to order numbers 1-10, as the rest is just a sort of gambling game).

Craig: Can Cavan Biggio be what he has been thus far? An average-ish hitter (factoring in the walks) who is below average defensively but plays enough positions to aid a Major League roster?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: What position can he actually play? He’s been bad everywhere I’ve seen him, and he doesn’t hit.

Jim: Are you buying the breakout from Giolito?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: Is there a specific reason for Heliot Ramos’ improvement this year over last year?
Keith Law: Some physical development, some that he was just too young/not ready for low-A.

Sean: Is bukauskas a reliever at this point?
Keith Law: Possible. Would think the Dbacks will try him as a starter for now.

Nathan K: Rosario seems to be improving drastically this summer. Do you still hold him in high regard or do the deficiencies he’s shown to date at the MLB level bring him down future projection-wise
Keith Law: As a hitter, unchanged. But this year at SS has been a disaster.

Jamie: Why wasn’t Yordan on your top 100 before the season?
Keith Law: Because it’s not a list of the top 100 prospects for this season, but for the long term, and it’s not a list of offensive prospects, but of total value. He’s most likely a DH, not a good athlete, and doesn’t move well or project to age particularly easily. He can hit and has power – omitting a player from my top 100, or a midseason top 50, or even a team’s top 10 is not tantamount to saying he’s a bad player or a non-prospect. You’ve probably made one of those mistakes: thinking it’s just about this year, thinking it’s just about offense, or thinking a non top 100 guy must be bad. None of those are true.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ve got to write up the Luis Robert debacle, and then it’s vacation time for me. Thank you all as always for reading and for the kind words after my last few newsletters. I appreciate you all. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.

Keith Law: Motives changing day to day. Klawchat.

Wilson Ramos: Do you think BVW pulls a Preller? The Mets have a solid number of controllable assets to trade, and they have time to rebuild a team around McNeil and Alonso.
Keith Law: He should pull a Preller, but McNeil is 27, likely to be 30 by the time this team is good again, and not someone you’re building around. I wonder what he’d be worth in trade, given his minimum salary and the high probability he’s peaking right now.

Matt: Prospect junkies seem to always be looking for the next mega prospect. On the heels of Guerrero and Franco, who do you see as the next fixation? Luciano? Someone else? Thanks.
Keith Law: There isn’t a next Franco or Vlad (or Tatis). There are some very good teenaged Latin American prospects in low-A and short-season, including Luciano, Ronny Mauricio, George Valera, and Diego Cartaya, and don’t sleep on Corbin Carroll.

Brian in Austin: Doesn’t it make more sense for the Rangers (indeed, any team in the same position), to just keep Minor and Lynn since they are signed beyond this year, as opposed to trading one or both for some middling prospect(s), which seems to be the only type of prospects teams trade anymore?
Keith Law: I doubt Minor gets traded for middling prospects. Lynn, maybe, but Minor is worth more than that.

Ker Pal: If you were running the Jays, would you trade Stroman or extend him? He’s only 28, appears willing to stay, and is the only MLB-caliber starter they have at the moment. Why deal him?
Keith Law: Because they need more than just him, and there isn’t much other pitching there in the majors or high minors beyond Pearson.

Greg P: In reading Joe Sheehan yesterday, he still seems to think the Giants should be sellers despite this recent hot streak. I tend to agree. What say you?
Keith Law: I completely agree with Joe.

Jim L: Do the Cubs have any internal options to help their playoff push or who should they target? Also, when are you going to The Athletic?
Keith Law: Seems like Alzolay in some role is the only internal help they’re likely to get. My contract with ESPN is up at the end of the year; I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020.

JT: Is the Nomar Mazara experience always going to be this boring, or should we have more appreciation for a consistent performer at his age?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

JR: So, Jonah Fucking Keri, huh? Fuck him.
Keith Law: I might not have phrased it exactly the same way, but I agree with your sentiments.

Jerry: Have Whitley’s or Tucker’s ceilings taken a hit this year? Should the Astros be willing to deal either or both for a Syndergaard, Stroman, etc?
Keith Law: Ceilings, no. I certainly wonder if Whitley is truly healthy. Tucker would be my “good prospect most likely to be traded” for this year.

If only I could hit: I follow the Yankees so this may be true of other teams as well, but I’ve been struck at how well the AAA players employed this year in stints of varying length with NY have played. It made me wonder what percentage of Triple A players might be able to carve out a career if luck intervened, but otherwise might never get to the show. Do you have a sense of this? Thanks!
Keith Law: My inference, without hard evidence, is that the Yankees are doing something differently in evaluating players to bring in as AAA filler, and finding guys whom they can help make adjustments who can be productive essentially for free.

Scott: Miss you on Twitter but hope it’s helping your mental health. I was surprised to hear your personal news also but glad that is going well for you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I miss Twitter’s ability to catch me up on news quickly, but given the continued trash fire in my replies in my daily glances at it, I’m not sorry I took it off my phone.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Chris: Thanks for doing these chats. If the Red Sox are still a few games out of the wildcard race by the trade deadline, should they trade some of the players on the last year of their contracts or hope that things turnaround with their rotation and bullpen for the remainder of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they could get any real value from trading the Porcello types; given their market & owner expectations, they should probably ride it out.

Michael: Should Cleveland trade Bauer? Will they?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure, but I would certainly do so.

Zihuatanejo: Will all of Ruiz, Smith, and May to still be in the Dodgers organization on August 1?
Keith Law: My guess is no. Ruiz feels most likely to be traded with Smith ready now and Cartaya looking like a GUY.

Jack: Was there any indication Tatis was this good when the White Sox traded him? I saw him the other day and he’s electric.
Keith Law: I’ve had him highly ranked since the trade, and I know the Padres couldn’t believe their luck in getting him.

j: Thoughts on Anthony Seigler?
Keith Law: Three major injuries in 13 months, and he’ll finish this year with just 54 pro games since he signed. He has ability but he needs at bats he hasn’t getting, and catchers who get hurt a lot are worrisome propositions.

Deke: An interesting thing to ponder: At this point, would you say Trump’s presidency has been better than you expected, about as bad as you expected, or even worse than you expected?
Keith Law: Worse.

JAS: How good can Tarik Skubal be? He’s really pitched well the past few weeks, and he’s at AA and dominating. Is he a top 100 candidate?
Keith Law: He is a real prospect, but not likely to see my top 100.

Dan: Ok, notwithstanding that the Rays subs were (probably?) done legally and had no bearing on the outcome- how much more bungling from Angel Hernandez can MLB possibly tolerate at this point? Is the ump union that powerful to protect someone so utterly incompetent? In any event, I at least hope he is not allowed within 500 miles of a postseason venue this October after his debacle last October.
Keith Law: I only saw this after the fact, but the umpires’ lack of preparation really showed, and I agree it reflects poorly on Hernandez in an objective sense – yeah, we all pick on him, because we think he’s bad at his job, but this was an actual failure.

Jay: Do the Yanks have enough to land Thor? I assume any package would have to center around Garcia.
Keith Law: Buster said to me on the BBTN podcast this morning that he can’t imagine the Wilpons trading Thor to the Bronx and risking having him turn into an ace. I agree. I mean, we know the Wilpons aren’t rational.

Adam: Please tell me it’s okay to buy in to Manuel Margot’s last 40 game sample size.
Keith Law: He’s always had a good eye and high contact rates; now he seems to be starting to turn more contact into times on base. I’m in.

Frank: If you are the Giants please tell me the right move is still to sell the desirable pieces and not make a push for a one game playoff. Logic would seem to say they are most likely more of the team of the first 80 games than the team of the last 20.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Outscored on the year, bunch of overperformers on the roster.

Gloria: How are the Dems so bad at this? They have literal sound bites of Mueller essentially calling Trump an un-indicted felon, plainly stating he obstructed justice and all the talk is on optics? And why did nobody ask him about Cohen and if Trump directed that behavior?
Keith Law: The leadership is bad at this, and when younger Democrats disagree with the “shoot self in foot” strategy, the leadership goes after the dissidents. The Keystone Kops were better at catching the bad guys.

ben: You flagged Leonardo Rodriguez as a sleeper a couple years ago. He’s had a great start in Aberdeen this year but is a little old for the level. Is he still a legit prospect worth watching?
Keith Law: I saw him again last night – he hasn’t progressed.

Mike: Kiriloff has had a few injuries this year, but all in all hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 even when healthy. Any cause for concern?
Keith Law: Zero cause. Still a star.
Keith Law: And his injury this year was to his wrist (two IL stints), which you would expect to sap some of his power and contact quality. So saying he’s “had a few injuries” (it was one injury, and one that affects hitter performance even after it heals) isn’t really fair to him.

Wander: What could the Mets get for Dom Smith— a prospect in the top 150ish? Rockies seem like a fit but I cant think of a player coming back who’d make sense, Freeland maybe?
Keith Law: I think he’s worth more than that although the Mets haven’t done much to support his value.

Adam: So, umm, the first unanimous baseball HOF’er is an unabashed Trump supporter? That’s…something.
Keith Law: I was pondering this – if the news, not just his Trump support but his alignment with an openly anti-Semitic evangelical pastor, had come out before the vote, would he not have been unanimous? I can’t say it would have stopped me from voting for him, but I think it would have stopped someone.

Billy Pilgrim: Should the Tigers call Rodgers up?s The guys they’re playing at catcher seem to lack a pulse.
Keith Law: He’s not the solution either.

Adam: How arrogant are front offices about their prospect development processes? When a struggling player leaves their system and succeeds (like Alex Dickerson), then turns around and “criticizes” the coaching of their prior team, do the teams re-evaluate their process or shrug such things off as an anomaly?
Keith Law: Depends on the people, right? Some folks take the criticism personally, some see it as a chance to improve. I’m not comfortable generalizing here.

Matt : If you are the GM of a team like the Giants or As who have real shots at the wild card but a low chance at a deep playoff run how would you handle the trade deadline? A shot at a play in game isn’t worth getting value on tradeable pieces, right?
Keith Law: I’d never give up prospects if I didn’t have a shot to win the division. More so for the Giants, who I think are a mirage.

Amir: As an Afghan American who still has family living in Kabul, hearing the President muse about wiping out 10 million Afghans is both frightening and infuriating. It also makes me all the more frustrated that Dem leadership refuses to start impeachment hearings; It’s like they don’t have the same sense of urgency as their constituents. Just needed to get that out.
Keith Law: It is maddening. A party that once had many policy positions I supported doesn’t give a shit about the country or the planet as long as they get conservative judges and tax cuts.

Gloria: Alzolay is hurt. Seems to be done for the year
Keith Law: Ah sorry, I missed that, thought he was supposed to return.

Pat D: Would you consider trading Garcia as part of a package for any of Stroman, Syndergaard or Bumgarner, even though the latter two are highly unlikely to end up in the Bronx for differing reasons?
Keith Law: I think they’d have to, but I’d probably only include him for Stroman, maybe Thor, not Bumgarner.
Keith Law: My guess is the Yanks trade from their next tier of pitching prospects – guys like Gil, Gomez, Contreras, etc.

Mike: Lewis Thorpe of the Twins intrigues me, he’s got pretty nice k:bb numbers in the minors. Can he be a mid rotation guy, or is he more back end rotation?
Keith Law: More back end, but I like him and root for him to give us an Australian player with enough impact to help grow the game.

Todd: Does Luis Gil have Deivi Garcia type upside?
Keith Law: You couldn’t pick two more different players. Both prospects, but Gil is at least five inches taller, with more velocity and spin, more physical, without Deivi’s deception or mix of offspeed.

Trace: Were/Are you friends with Jonah Keri and what are your thoughts on that situation? It seems as if the baseball community has been quiet about that
Keith Law: I knew him but was not friends with him. I don’t agree the baseball community has been quiet – I’ve seen criticism all over. Julie DiCaro weighed in pretty early. Craig Calcaterra did. Jay Jaffe commented. Every site that used him cut ties right away.

danny: Did I hear you actually gag when Buster said Angel Hernandez’s name on the podcast today?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Big Fan: Is there any merit to Austin Riley going back down to AAA, or does he need to be at the MLB to figure out the adjustments he needs to make?
Keith Law: I think he’ll just go beat up AAA pitchers again.

Sage: Addison Russell days as a Major League Cub over?
Keith Law: Fine with me!

GJ: Went to Pizzeria Bianco this week before the O’s/Diamondbacks game based on your recommendation. Needless to say it was awesome! Do you believe in the resurgence of Corey Sedlock? Former first rounder finally healthy and pitching well. Future starter or bullpen piece?
Keith Law: Based on what I saw I think a bullpen piece.

Nathan : Not sure you’re a Sinclair Lewis fan but have you read Babbitt? Seems like a book due for a revival
Keith Law: I’ve only read Arrowsmith and It Can’t Happen Here, the review of which I boosted in March of 2016 when it appeared that it could indeed.

Mark: Would Eloy’s injury, though not as bad as originally feared, give you concern to move him to 1B/DH? Seems like the White Sox have a lot of prospects geared towards that position, albeit not as talented a hitter as Eloy.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. But you probably have to leave him in RF and hope he can be a 45 defender there because they’ll have too many 1b/dh types unless they can convert someone else (e.g., Vaughn to 3b).

Lark11: Hey Keith, Any reason for concern on Reds Taylor Trammell? His control over the strike zone and athleticism still stand out, but he’s struggled at double-A. Just the usual struggles/adjustments to a higher level of competition? Or, cause for concern? Thanks!
Keith Law: No concern.

Jay: “I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020” – meaning, you know but can’t say, or you legitimately don’t know?
Keith Law: Meaning I don’t know.

Zihuatanejo: “Hey Keith, it’s Twitter. The Worst People In The World send their regards.”
Keith Law: Exactly.

JC: I assume Kristian Robinson is one of the youngest players in the NWL and he is destroying the ball right now. Any chance he jumps Chisholm for you next update?
Keith Law: No chance. Good prospect, though.

Gus: How concerning is Duplantier’s shoulder injury?
Keith Law: Very, since he’s had it before (sophomore year at Wayne Graham’s School of Arm Shredding).

Jerry: It was only a couple of years ago that Frances Martes was a highly ranked prospect. After TJ, suspension, and now visa problems, is there any reason for optimism that he’ll ever be a contributor to the MLB club?
Keith Law: Contributor, sure. Star, unlikely.

Curt: Thoughts or rumblings on Touki Toussaint? Seemed to be developing into an ace the last couple years but seems like that has stalled and now he’s destined to the bullpen. Only 23 still, but have the Braves mis-managed him?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’ve mismanaged him, but they have a lot of starter candidates and can’t give him starts he hasn’t earned (yet) as they try to win. I think he’d be a very valuable trade piece, though – how can you not love the combination of stuff, athleticism, youth, and makeup?

Ryan R: Is Griffin Roberts already a wasted pick? Many reports on him when he was drafted suggested he was one of the most MLB ready players in the draft but his current stat line suggests he is struggling mightily at A+ despite being old for the level. What’s the deal with Roberts?
Keith Law: He was never going to be a starter, and they should just put him in the pen.

Eric: Do you listen to music on vinyl at all?
Keith Law: Never.

Ridley: We miss you on Twitter but don’t blame you at all. Are you going to use any other platform to fill the void, or are you thinking of just reducing the social media time/effort/exposure?
Keith Law: Still on Facebook, IG, the dish, here. Plenty of places to find me, but where I have a bit more control over the conversation and can rid the place of any vermin who show up.

Dan: Has Deivy Grullon improved his stock or is his ceiling still a No. 2 catcher in the Majors?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why he would have improved his stock at all.

Matt: The Angels have inched their way back into the race but have almost no pitching left. What would you do in their spot?
Keith Law: At least explore trading for one. Adell off limits, make anyone else potentially available.

Eric: Do you have a garden at home? We’re about to build ours out (we currently have guava, lime, blood orange and plum trees, and passion fruit vine) to include herbs and veggies so our kids can learn where their food comes from. What are some of your garden essentials?
Keith Law: I do, mostly tomatoes and herbs right now, although I try to grow peas every spring (rabbits got ’em this year) and typically grow arugula and other leafy greens.

Matt: Reynaldo Lopez just threw his third strong start after the ASB, is his best long-term role still likely a high leverage reliever, or is he good enough to project as a quality back-end starter going forward?
Keith Law: Still a future reliever for me. And that last start came against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Jason: If Riley isn’t quite ready to hit consistently, and the alternative option is Inciarte in center, does it make sense for Atlanta to bring up Pache now? Or is he just not ready with the bat?
Keith Law: Love Pache, obviously, glove was ready yesterday, I think he’d post a .280 OBP right now.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Since the SP market is pretty thin, if you’re the Yankees do you cross your fingers, hope Severino returns and maybe get some additional bullpen help, or say “screw it” and overpay for a Stroman since you have a chance to win it all this year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t cross my fingers on Severino … he’s been out so long, I’m not sure you can bet on him starting.

Todd: Where do you expect Spencer Howard to fall in next year’s prospect ranking if he stays healthy the rest of the year?
Keith Law: Around the same range he was at last winter, I think. Missing time with shoulder soreness is a concern.

Jason: Not too familiar with Yordan Alvarez’s journey to the bigs, but how do the Dodgers trade a guy like him for a middle reliever?
Keith Law: I think they got him in, saw the body & lack of athleticism, and had some quick buyer’s remorse (they had just signed him) that undervalued him.

Eric: I never thought I’d see a player as ridiculous as 2000s cartoon-numbers Bonds, but, man, Trout is there. He’s gonna end up the greatest player ever, isn’t he?
Keith Law: I think so, or at least good enough that we can have a rational debate about it.

Andres: Hey Klaw, this might be nuts to suggest. But, I think Smith has a brighter future than Pete Alonso. Would it be better for the Mets to explore an Alonso trade and play Smith in the future? I think Alonso, with the numbers and years of control, would fetch a nice amount.
Keith Law: I like Smith a ton as well, but I can’t see them considering trading Alonso given his hot start, 5+ years of control remaining, and popularity.

Billy: Are Adam Duvall or Travis Demeritte worth anything as trade fodder, or is it the juiced AAA ball?
Keith Law: I tried to buy into Demeritte when he was first traded, but he hit .222/.316/.416 while repeating AA last year, and when a guy does that, then goes to the juiced ball and goes bananas, I’m skeptical. I haven’t heard any good reason to think he’s a different player. (He has always had great bat speed & power, though. That’s real.)

Greg: The Indians would be crazy not to trade Bauer right? But could they at least wait- should they wait- until after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, if they don’t like the offers they’re getting now they could wait, but I don’t think they want to wait past this winter, as his value will drop … he’s had all of one good season, and he’s otherwise been really inconsistent.

Frank: Could Dodgers get Edwin Diaz for a deal around Keibert Ruiz? I’d do that in a second, but sounds like the Mets are looking for something like May and Ruiz (maybe we could get Wheeler + Diaz in a deal like that?)
Keith Law: Yes, I think that deal has potential – and Buster essentially said the same on the podcast today. He and Passan are more in tune with what’s likely than I am.

JAS: Is Bryan Mata the next great Red Sox starting pitcher? They haven’t developed a homegrown starter in a long time, but does he have a chance to break through? He’s 20 at AA and holding his own, with increased velocity this year…
Keith Law: Velocity was good last year too; it’s a tough delivery for a starter though.

Manny: What do you think about all the Royals college guys who have come through Wilmington? It looks like a pretty impressive group but how would you rank Lynch/Kowar/Singer/Bubic/Bowlan/Cox? Seems like we have seen a lot of deviation in how analyst have ranked them.
Keith Law: Lynch was the one sure starter (if healthy) of the group for me. Bubic second most likely to start. Kowar > Singer for me. The hitters, though … they’ve struggled a lot.

Nick: Hey KLaw, I really appreciate the chats, I read every single one! I know comps aren’t in for minor leaguers anymore. It’s a high bar, but I see a little Tim Lincecum in Deivi Garcia in terms of stuff and mechanics. Am I just a dreaming Yankees fan? Thanks again!
Keith Law: I don’t see it, sorry. Deliveries aren’t similar, Lincecum threw harder with a better CB (more vertical, too), Deivi has better deception and better SL/CH than Lincecum did at this age.

Pat D: Leaving aside the question of whether they SHOULD get in, do you think Vizquel and Yadier WILL one day get in? I’m assuming you’re a no vote on both.
Keith Law: I’m a no on both. Molina might, Vizquel unlikely.

Pete: If you run the Indians and, as you say, try to trade Bauer, how do you sell that to the fanbase that you’re trading one of your top pitchers in the middle of a playoff race?
Keith Law: He’s a pitcher; is he a top pitcher? A 4.18 FIP, leading the league in walks. He’s valuable because he takes the ball every fifth day, not because he’s an elite performer, and we haven’t even discussed what you’re getting off the field.

JR: Will Parker Meadows be as good as his brother?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given the hitch in his swing.

Matteo Salvini: We await your arrival to our paradise Mr Law. We love all immigrants. About my Mets: Have you seen SWR at all this season, enough progress to reach top 100 status?
Keith Law: No, reports are great, but I haven’t gotten to see Columbia yet. They’re on my hope-to-see list for August. Charleston & Greenville are up here this weekend, so I’ll see them.

Yanns: RE: Rivera, I’m sure politics changed some votes for Schilling so I definitely could see it having an impact for Rivera.
Keith Law: Schilling made comments on his beliefs; Rivera simply had those beliefs. And Schilling’s comments were virulent – he reposted a meme about killing journalists, and openly attacked Muslims and transgender people.

Keith: Do you see Luis Robert more like Starling Marte or Lewis Brinson?
Keith Law: I see him go 0-fer every time I’m there, so I’m the wrong person to ask. (Probably Marte. Maybe more K%.)
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, radio hit & digital video thing coming up shortly here. Thanks for all the questions. I may not chat next week depending on whether I go to Bristol at all for the deadline, but then would return to chat on the 8th, after Gen Con. Have a safe weekend.

My latest review for PasteMagazine covers Century A New World, the last game in the Century trilogy (Spice Road, Eastern Wonders).

Keith Law: This can’t go on – I must inform the Law. Oh, that’s me. Klawchat.

Craig: Does Corbin Burnes still have a lot of trade value? If you were a seller (i.e. Toronto, Texas, Detroit), would you be willing to accept him as the centerpiece for a Stroman/Minor/Boyd deal?
Keith Law: He was just placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, so I think his value right now is zero until he shows he’s healthy.

Rob: What are your thoughts on Robel Garcia? His path the MLB is quite interesting. Do you thinkk he’s an everyday 2B?
Keith Law: His path is unprecedented. I would guess his high strikeout rate will keep him from being an average regular, but I don’t feel very strongly about that (since we have no history with him), and I’d like to see him prove me wrong.

Matt: Hi Keith, is Nick Economos a legit prospect? He’s been solid in two levels of A-ball this seaon.
Keith Law: He’s also 24 years old and should be at least in double-A. We’ll see if/when he gets there.

Oscar Mercado: Am I an above-average regular / occasional All-Star? Or am I playing a little above my head right now?
Keith Law: You’re not playing above your head, but I don’t think you’re playing at an above-average level yet. I wish Cleveland would give Mercado the CF job full-time; he’s best there of all three positions and his bat there could make him an above-average regular in time.

Inky Dink: Brandon Sproat was the highest draft pick not to sign — did the Rangers screw this up or do you think the player changed his mind (which I’m not criticizing him for if he did — that’s his right)
Keith Law: I don’t know the details and don’t want to speculate, since he is going to college and I don’t want to give anyone cause to question his eligibility.

BushThrushRush: Joe Palumbo has struggled in his brief major league auditions this year. Have you dropped him from his just outside the top 100 status that he held pre-season?
Keith Law: No, that’s not how this works. If anything, he’s moved on to the back of the top 100.

addoeh: Were you able to try any new eats in Cleveland for the Futures Game, despite your illness?
Keith Law: Yes, but I realized afterwards everything tasted flat to me because I was sick. I went to Greenhouse Tavern (best place I ate), Mabel’s, Barrio (worst), Spice Kitchen. Pour Coffee was excellent too. And there’s an ice cream sandwich place right downtown – Cathy’s? – that was outstanding. THAT I could taste.

Rando : I know you’ve said before that you weren’t interested in Game of Thrones but can you just reaffirm that a show that uses the murdering of children and rape as a plot device isn’t interesting or edgy.
Keith Law: That is partly my view, at least. It deters me from watching.

Alex: Re: Cashner trade– Os get 2 DSL guys with decent stats. Do you think that Elias or K Perez targeted these specific guys (i.e., we wanted them while we were at Houston/Cleveland) and/or they figured 2 lottery tickets had higher upside (but greater risk) than an A/AA prospect (see what Royals got for Homer Bailey). Thanks
Keith Law: I’m sure it’s the former.

xxxYYY: How did we get to a point where “socialism” is being defined in this country as things like “public schools” and “universal health care,” rather than “government ownership and management of businesses” and “centralized planning”?
Keith Law: This has been true to some degree since at least the 1980s, when Republicans used “socialism” against Mike Dukakis in the ’88 election. Economics education in this country is bad, so the average American doesn’t know what the term means – I think very few people truly understand what socialism the economic system entails, because how would they learn it if it’s not taught in school and politicians use it incorrectly all the time?

Herten for Sherten: Sherten Apostel was just promoted to high-A despite middling numbers in the Sally League. Is this the Rangers rushing another guy who should be held back?
Keith Law: Uh, no. He slugged .470 in low-A.

Zach: If you’re Atlanta, would you have any prospects that are off-limits in trade talks (Anderson, Pache for example)?
Keith Law: Pache would be untouchable for me.

Salty: Would you start playing Gavin Lux at 2B in anticipation of a mid/late August promotion, or would you let him finish out the year in AAA at SS, then give him some reps at 2B at AFL and/or spring training?
Keith Law: I would only do this if the plan was to play Lux regularly at 2b in September and then have him stay there next spring. AFL starts too early this year so it screws up any plans to have such a player in the majors in September (opening day is 9/17, I think, so dumb).

Christopher: sigh, should the Mets just trade everyone?
Keith Law: I’d say yes, but do you want the guy who traded Kelenic/Dunn for Cano/Diaz really overseeing the fire sale?

Brandon J: Hey Keith, Josiah Gray recently got promoted to AA and has had a phenomenal year, do you think this is a sign of things to come and would he be approaching your top 100?
Keith Law: He shouldn’t have been in low-A to start the year. Double-A is a much better test for him.

Christopher: If I don’t agree with our Dear Leader have I passed the statute of limitations where I can’t be sent back? I think my ancestors on both sides have been around for a few generations. I’m safe, right?
Keith Law: I’m only a second-generation American if you go through my maternal grandfather. I assume i’ll be deported to Italy shortly, which … okay, that might be okay.

Kevin: Think a team gives into Tigers high demand for Matt Boyd? Or do Tigers blink and lower asking price a bit? Or neither?
Keith Law: Probably will have to lower the price because there seem to be a few other SP on the market right now. But I’d be inclined to take the best offer now rather than hold him (assuming they get an offer worth considering … that assumption is always built in) to the winter and risk injury.

Ryan (NY): KLaw, thanks for the chat! As a Mets’ fan, trying to keep the faith. Looking to next year, is it possible that Rosario could transition to CF with Gimenez or Guillorme taking over at SS? I want to believe he could stay at SS but it seems that the instincts are lacking there. Additionally, could Kay and/or Peterson slot into next year’s rotation with Vargas, Wheeler probably gone? There seems to be talent in A Ball, so trying to be patient until 2021-2022.
Keith Law: Mauricio is the long term SS there, so they could slot in Guillorme for his defense, taking the offensive hit, and moving Rosario to CF where they’ve had a defensive black hole since Lagares got hurt. That said, who’s the last Mets player to actually get better on defense in the majors?

Aaron C.: Do you do any in-person scouting for the short-season leagues and/or the 2019 draft class or are you off the road until Arizona in October?
Keith Law: Yes, I was actually in Aberdeen last night but got rained out. Will try again next week, by which point Rutschman should be there.

Steve: Does Wander Franco stay at shortstop, or will he end up at 3rd or 2nd?
Keith Law: 50/50 he stays at short.

Andrew: Would you evaluate pitchers at AA or below differently with the new ball implemented in AAA?
Keith Law: I’m probably going to skip AAA entirely this year.
Keith Law: There’s no point – you can’t evaluate players in that environment, with more AAA homers hit by the All-Star Break this year than there were in AAA in *all* of 2018 – and it’s just shitty baseball now.

Yuri: Even though none of them made your top-50, fair to say that this is the most excited Giants’ fans should be about their system in a while? Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Canario, Bishop is probably more position player pure talent than they’ve had in a loooong time.
Keith Law: That’s probably fair. Best position player crop since the Posey/Crawford years.

Aaron C.: You: “If Nick Allen (current OBP: .363) can get on base, the A’s might have something.” I know you’re waiting until next year (AA) to see if it’s real, but I can only save this seat on the bandwagon for a little while longer, Klaw.
Keith Law: I’m in. Can really play short and he’s also making a good bit more hard contact than scouts in general expected (given his size).

Derek: If your the Pirates, what kind of return are you holding out for with Vazquez?
Keith Law: I read they wanted two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects, which is entirely their right to demand, but there is no way on earth I’m giving that up (two top 50 overall prospects?) for any closer. As for what I’m holding out for, it’s really about getting the best offer you can and taking it, since relievers go poof! all the time.

Ker Pal: Vlad’s hitting a whole bunch of ground balls. I know he’s 20. No real cause for concern…is there?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: When O’Neil Cruz makes his MLB debut, it will be at what position?
Keith Law: Third base, or the outfield.

Kyle KS: What happened to keeping one foot in the box for hitters from a few years ago? It’s not a huge time saver but it did seem to help the feel of pace of play.
Keith Law: Never truly enforced in my experience.

Leroy : Does James Marvel have any big league potential?
Keith Law: Possibly. Not a high likelihood.

Kevin: Is this what you expected from Devers, or do you think there is still a lot of room for growth for the 22 year old?
Keith Law: This is what I expected, but I think he’ll grow into even more power.

Joe B: How did Razza match up against the other places you’ve been to?
Keith Law: It’s top 20 for me for sure, bordering on top 10. I will probably update that ranking this winter – I’ve been to at least eight places worthy of adding (Razza, Pequod, Backspace, Bruno, 2 Amy’s, Pizza Rock, Settebello, Apizza Scholls) and am hoping to hit Beddia in the fall.

JP: why wasn’t Luciano on the top 50? doesn’t he have as much upside as anyone in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the upside claim, but more importantly, the top 50 is not strictly a list of the players with the most upside. He’s a good prospect; he’s not top 50 good yet.

Jake: Thanks as always for the chat! Who do you believe has the higher ceiling between Kowar and Lynch and who has the higher probability of reaching it?
Keith Law: Lynch to both, assuming he’s healthy.

Jason: What’s keston Hiuras ceiling?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, bordering on star because he hits for high average, held back by defense.

Zihuatanejo: Hi Keith — IIRC you’ve mentioned that you rarely or never drink alcohol. Any beverage recommendations for the newly sober who are accustomed to wine and such with their meals?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – I’m a moderate drinker – but when I don’t want to drink, I’ll do soda water with lime, or soda water with bitters (“bits and bubs”).

Pedro: How good can Jake Fraley be?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Brandon Warne: Fast forward one year — Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff have hypothetically exhausted their prospect status.

Who do you think would be No. 1 on your Twins prospect list?
Keith Law: Balazovic, probably. Cavaco and Larnach would be possibilities; need to see Larnach show some power now that he’s out of the FSL.

JR: Tarik Skubal having a great year. Is he apart of the future for the Tigers?
Keith Law: Yes, but in what role I don’t know yet.

Brendan: If you’re Neal Huntington – full on rebuild, or sell off veteran pieces? I think a lot of Pirate fans feel like we’re stuck in 78-83 win purgatory.
Keith Law: Seemed like they were trying to win this year and they’re not exactly out of it, but maybe not quite good enough to make it? Hard to advocate selling given that they’re only 6 out in the loss column but that is what I would do in their situation.

Rybo: Longtime fan, Keith. Just wanted to say thank you for your recommendation of “The Happiest Baby on the Block” – it’s been an absolute game changer for my wife and I with our newborn
Keith Law: That’s great to hear – I’m glad you found it as useful as I did.

Pat: Thoughts on Alex Wells? I know I’m scouting the stat line, but he just keeps on keeping on. 1.95 ERA, 2.63 FIP at AA. Can a guy with that limited velocity be a GUY?
Keith Law: I think there’s a chance he’s a back-end starter – a very small chance, but I wouldn’t say zero.

Brandon Warne: With regards to depression/anxiety — how much tweaking did your prescriptions need before you felt “normal” again. Did you ever?
Keith Law: Normal is always a relative term to me. I felt different on each medication I tried, and differently on 10 mg of escitalopram (current dose) vs 20 mg (previous dose, stronger benefit, worse side effects). It is worth tweaking the meds and doses to find a combination that makes you feel the best you can.

Drew: Is Michael Baumann a legit prospect, or was his no-no in Bowie a fluke?
Keith Law: Relief prospect.

Dylan Carlson: I had a big game last night, 2 HR, what do you think my future is? (Ceiling, eta, comparison)
Keith Law: See my top 50 from last week.

Epsthoyer: Thanks for doing this, Klaw. Long time first time.. Will Roederer & Davis be 2/3 of our OF in 2021?
Keith Law: I would guess that if both continue to develop one ends up traded for major-league help before then.

Realist: % Chance a Dem or Reporter is seriously injured in the lead up to the election this time around because of Trump’s rhetoric?
Keith Law: Over 50%.

Noah: Have you been to Yountville for the restaurants and wine? Any favorites (other than French laundry)
Keith Law: Never. I think there’s a pizza place out there on my to-try list too.

Micah: Knowing the year to year volatility of relievers, would you ever trade a top prospect for said reliever?
Keith Law: Nope.

Lyle: Cal Raleigh! How fast can he move up the system?
Keith Law: Should spend the rest of this year in AA. Did okay in high-A, but he’s a D1 product and he should have done well there.

Chris: Syndergaard and Wheeler for Patino, Morejon, Baez, Weathers. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Padres, with howls of derisive laughter.

Brian: You didn’t seem particularly impressed with Mickey Moniak. And yet, in May he hit .290 with a .755 OPS, in June it was .294 w/an .872 OPS and a big spike in walks & in July it’s been .320 with an .850 OPS. That sounds a lot like the Steve Finley type player discussed when the Phillies drafted him. What are you seeing and hearing from scouts that the stat line isn’t showing?
Keith Law: OPS sucks for individual players, more so for trying to evaluate prospects. It’s not a good swing at all, not going to generate power, and his approach isn’t good. He’s also probably not a CF long term.

Johnny: Which catcher has a better chance of being an all-star Sean Murphy or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Keibert.

Danny: Can Deivi Garcia be an option for the Yankees in September or the playoffs? Either as a starter or out of the pen?
Keith Law: Yes. Either but not sure I’d push him into a playoff rotation right out of AAA.

Chris: Logan Gilbert thoughts?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter? Sounds like he’s got all his 2017 velocity back and the other elements were already in place.

Chris: Justice Sheffield struggled with control and the ball in triple A and has since crushed double A. He’s only 23. Why did he fall in the rankings if triple A performance is so unscoutable for pitchers?
Keith Law: Because his velocity dropped.

Aaron: Hi Keith, thanks for sharing your views on health and science in addition to your baseball opinions. My 12 year old daughter suffers from anxiety. Her mom (my ex wife) strongly believe that abstinence from gluten and sugars are scientifically shown to lower anxiety. One can find studies & ‘proofs’ to pretty much anything on the internet. I have no idea how to
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pseudoscience. There’s no effect, and your daughter is just going to be miserable because she can’t have Oreos. Eat the sugar and the flour and use actual, evidence-based treatments, like meditation, medication, exercise, and therapy.

Financial Flexibility: What should the Braves do with Austin Riley the next 2.5 months? He’s slumped terribly since his hot start, but sending him to AAA seems silly. Do you just keep sending him back out there to LF everyday or put him in some sort of platoon/rotation with Ender Inciarte?
Keith Law: If he’s up, he plays. Platooning him is probably the worst idea (he’d never get at bats, and thus have little chance to develop).

Rob: You mentioned last week that the new baseball “may” be affecting the quality of Syndergaard’s off speed stuff. Do you think this may be a factor in Aaron Sanchez’ struggles as well? (along with the tighter seams possibly affecting his finger)
Keith Law: Yes, plausible.

J.T.: Are you buying Barreto as a regular 2b?
Keith Law: No.

Aiden: What do you think about all the people complaining that the left “demonizes” Trump supporters and then the reality that they chant things like “send her back” at his rallies?
Keith Law: I was going to say that Trump supporters demonize themselves with their words and actions (and hats).

Brian: Can you clarify something in your top 50 about Spencer Howard: you mentioned the shoulder injury, but he’s been dynamite since he came back. Just too much risk for reinjury with a shoulder?
Keith Law: It’s two starts. (One came after the top 50 was posted.) Shoulder injuries are much worse for a player’s value than elbow.

Los Hermanos Waner: You could eat all the oreos you want (for free) with no negative effects for the rest of your life OR wipe the memory of the last 2 seasons of Orioles baseball from the collective minds of the people of Baltimore. Would you be so altruistic?
Keith Law: LOL no

Chris: Have you had a chance to scout julio Rodriguez. He’s fun
Keith Law: Unfortunately he was hurt when WV came to Lakewood. Been good since he came back.

Benji: Do you think there’s any way the Rays would offer up both Sanchez & Brujan in a Boyd deal?
Keith Law: Doubt it.

Rob: Chance Seth Beer makes the top 100 if he can play serviceable defense at first?
Keith Law: No shot. Platoon guy right now, until he shows he can hit LHB even passably.

Brett V: Any hope for Royals prospects Pratto or Matias or at this point do you start to write them off as ever developing into MLB regulars
Keith Law: I do not project either as a regular. I’m not sure Pratto is a big leaguer at the moment.

Steve: How did you maintain your reading habits/schedule with a newborn?
Keith Law: I read less that year than in any other year in the last ~15. It wasn’t until she started sleeping through the night that I got back to my regular reading habits (because I was sleeping more).

El Perezoso: Best pizza you’ve ever had?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Bianco in Arizona. Keste in NYC is second. Of course I’ve had great pizza around Italy in places I couldn’t name, too.

Jason: Is Brandon woodruff for real?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Sloth: How was the Phish show? Which night of Camden did you go to?
Keith Law: One and two (not three). Both were fun. Can’t say I knew more than 3-4 songs each night. It was the company that made it fun for me, though.

Alex: >OPS sucks for individual players
Pardon my ignorance but I hadn’t heard this before. What circumstances is OPS useful for then- just evaluating team performance, or entire careers vs. individual seasons?
Keith Law: OPS underweights OBP severely. Don’t use it for hitters. It correlates well with run-scoring at the team level, so it’s okay to use for that, I guess, although I find that a little unsatisfying anyway because I know it’s a kludge.

Mike: Why do people (including people in positions of real authority, like ahem….) insist on dismissing scientific evidence for things like climate change, vaccinations/autism, etc?
Keith Law: There’s a lot of psychological research on the subject. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing.

Adam: Another recent report has Allard at 91-93 again. Can you substantiate that?
Keith Law: No.

ugotwilcoxed: Thoughts on Jackson Rutledge? Seems these big kids need a lot of work to standardize their mechanics.
Keith Law: Yeah, his delivery needs work, for consistency and maybe for long-term health. I think he’ll need help throwing strikes the way he throws now.

Scott: Thanks for all your hard work and these chats! Now that Dom Smith is playing up to his potential, do you see any team giving the Mets close to what his value is? If not, how do they keep even one of his and JD Davis’ bats in the lineup without compounding their defensive problems?
Keith Law: I feel like Smith won’t return full value because teams know he’s blocked by Alonso (and Davis and McNeil to a lesser degree), and Smith hasn’t quite held his great start with inconsistent playing time, which may also hurt.

Beth: Mike Soroka or Chris Paddack long term
Keith Law: Paddack. Soroka has great shit but he’s had some real injury scares and I prefer Paddack’s delivery.

Joe: Keith, I live just outside of DC. What is the quality of baseball in the Cal Ripken league?
Keith Law: I’ve been to a game in that league, and it’s lower than the Cape or Team USA, but it was comparable to a decent college game. Definitely worth going just to watch.

Nate: You have always been skeptical of Madrigal’s ability to drive the ball enough to be an above average regular. Does his defense project plus to you to offset some of the value lost in lack of power?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t.

Rob: Any chance for George Valera to make the top 100?
Keith Law: A full, healthy summer would make that possible.

Steve : Hi Keith, Joey Cantillo in San Diego is busting out, does he have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, yes, not sure he’s a GUY.

JG: An ESPN analyst “suggested” the Twins try to acquire Syndergaard and offered Lewis or Kirilloff and Graterol or Balazovic. Does that get it done and would you do it?
Keith Law: That’s a strange proposal because Lewis’s value is down a bit and Graterol’s been on the shelf with a shoulder injury for two months.

Kyle: Preference of region in Italy, north or south?
Keith Law: North, primarily for food, but really you could send me anywhere in Italy and I’d be happy.

Randy: How do you rate/rank a player like Brendan Rodgers following the season ending surgery?
Keith Law: No change unless someone tells me there’s a reason this injury/surgery might affect him long-term – for example, if he has to move to second base, as seems possible, that hurts his long-term outlook

Pete: Are you going to the Cape this year?
Keith Law: No. Under Armour for me, then lots of minor league scouting around here, then Gen Con.

Dr. Bob: Is there a concern about Vlad Jr.’s weight going forward? Guys like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder didn’t age well, in part, because of their weight.
Keith Law: Yes. That was one of the reasons why I ranked him #2 behind Tatis Jr.

Steve: Kirsten Gillibrand has a “little girl” voice. Do you think such things matter in terms of elect-ability? How about height?
Keith Law: There is verified research that the timber of a candidate’s voice and a candidate’s height have a significant effect on their appeal to voters. Taller men are also more likely to believe in their own leadership abilities and to pursue such positions.

Rick: KLaw, you’ve spoken often about the insanely low wages paid to MiLB players (1st year players make a max monthly amount of $1,075) and how owners needed specific legislation passed which exempted minor league players from federal labor law. What do you think is the best way for the industry, and for the average fan to address this situation?
Keith Law: The best way was to call your representatives in Congress before the GOP tax law passed. I’m not sure there’s a good way for fans to express that interest now, at least not until the players themselves take action.

Brian: Thanks for the chat – really appreciate the time you dedicate to this. I’m always curious about player development. I think you’ve indicated (apologies if I’ve got it wrong) that Bichette can’t stay at shortstop. Why would the Jays keep developing him in Triple A at a position he won’t play in the majors? Wouldn’t it be better to get reps (lots of them) at 2B?
Keith Law: They think he can stay at shortstop. They also insisted Vlad Jr. could play third and Tellez could play first, so perhaps they skew in a different direction.

Matt: Is there any chance the White Sox will push Vaughn to High A before the end of the year? Low A doesn’t appear to be giving him much of a challenge thus far, and his bat has universally been praised as “advanced.”
Keith Law: Yes, they did so with Madrigal last year.

Gerald: Poorly phrased, in your years in baseball, is there one draft pick that caught your attention as player not worthy of the draft slot.
Keith Law: Hayden Simpson is the most obvious choice. Kevin Matthews comes to mind too.

Lee: Do you agree with Pelosi’s strategy of avoiding impeachment at all costs? I understand her thinking in that it will unify the GOP around Trump in an election season and I agree to an extent because it’s very important he’s out of office ASAP. But not impeaching him for political reasons sends a really horrible precedent for all future presidents. That you can commit as many crimes as you like as long as your party controls one house of congress. Dark times.
Keith Law: No, I would support impeachment, even knowing it will fail in the Senate.

JR: Riley Greene killing it thus far. When does he get called up to A ball?
Keith Law: That’s who I was trying to see last night. I’m guessing he starts next year in low-A. You want him to stay in one spot long enough to face a team or two twice, so maybe they adjust to him.

Sanjay: Are teams required to obtain MLB approval to install netting around the field of play or can they move forward on their own? If the latter, why haven’t more teams installed it already?
Keith Law: They either don’t need approval or MLB is granting it to everyone who asks, so in practical terms, they’re good to go.
Keith Law: Why not? Inertia, I guess?

Draftnik: Not going to argue with you about Moniak’s swing — I’m certainly no expert — but he has a wRC+ of 137 since May 1st. That’s over 250 plate appearances, and that is as a barely 21-year-old in AA. You don’t see him as a first-division regular in, say, 3 or 4 years?
Keith Law: No I don’t see him as that, and that’s still a small sample – and wRC+ is not useful for prospects. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ in a full season in high-A as a 20-year-old, and he’s a non-prospect.
Keith Law: Stop scouting the stat line.

Robert: How excited should Padres fans be for Munoz? Can you reasonably project him to be a high leverage reliever or is the command and slider worrisome?
Keith Law: High-leverage reliever with high bust/blowout risk.

Mickey Callaway: I think you deserve a victory lap for Tatis over Vlad, but people praising you miss the point that the difference was one spot and both should be excellent.
Keith Law: The people who missed the point were those angry I had Tatis over Vlad in January. I never said Vlad wasn’t good.

Robert: At this point is Michael Gettys an org guy?
Keith Law: In pragmatic terms, no, he’ll probably get a cup of coffee, but I do not project him to have any positive major league value.

Aaron: If the Phillies set their defensive requirements at 3B at Maikel Franco, is Alec Bohm good enough to play 3B for them?
Keith Law: I made that argument with someone at the Futures Game – if you’re willing to tolerate Franco, you can tolerate Bohm, at least in the short term. And I think Bohm’s going to hit for more average at the very least.

Jason: An Atlanta beat writer has a top 4 he would make untouchable: Pache, Waters, Anderson, and Muller. Was Muller near your consideration for the top 50?
Keith Law: No, and I would only have Pache untouchable out of that group.

Brandon Warne: When is your next reason to visit Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Probably visiting friends rather than coming for any baseball reason.

Adam: Thoughts on Makhi Backstrom?
Keith Law: He was in my draft recap for Atlanta.

Randy: What is it you enjoy so much about Italy (haven’t been but my fathers side if from there)? Obviously the food. But, culture?
Keith Law: Culture, history, and most importantly their way of life.

Eric: Please end the chat on this: VACCINATE YOUR DAMN CHILDREN
Keith Law: You got it.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for all the questions. I’ll be back next week for a chat, and then probably skipping the following week between the trade deadline and Gen Con. I’ll be at Under Armour on Monday, barring another family emergency (!), and will have a writeup afterwards.

Starting at 1 pm. My ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I try to hear the music but I’m always losing time. Klawchat.

Greg P: Loved the Mid-Season 50 and I DID read the intro. I already knew you hated my team. Is service time really the only thing keeping Bichette in the minors?
Keith Law: Thank you. I don’t know that for a fact, but I don’t see any good reason he’s not in the majors; he’s better than the team’s current options at SS and 2b.

Trevor: KLaw – Missed the chat 2 weeks ago but wanted to mention the #SmartBaseball move from Michigan’s coach to bat the previous day’s SP 9th as a DH then pinch hit for him with the batter of his choice based on the situation. I don’t ever recall an AL team trying this
Keith Law: I missed that entirely. I like the idea.

barbeach: No question today. Just thank you so much for the chats and the content–so awesome.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m just relieved I got the top 50 out given that my fever hit 101.3 *again* yesterday. (I think it’s gone now.)

Greg P: As others have said before, you are the only reason I keep ESPN+ and if you leave, I leave. So, is Lou Bob (I love that nickname you gave him) going to get to Chicago this season?
Keith Law: Credit to Eric Longenhagen for the nickname. I think he will, although I am not basing that on anything from the team.

Nick: Can Alec Bohm potentially play corner outfield at all?
Keith Law: I highly doubt this.

Dana: Do you think the Yanks should bring up Deivi in September/playoffs and use him out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: I think he could help them, but don’t think that he needs to be recalled this year to keep developing.

Brian: Gurriel Jr. looks real (and even decent in left). Biggio seems to be able to get on base, but strikes out a ton (and can’t play D). What do you make of the young Jays?
Keith Law: Don’t think Biggio is anything … he can walk, but that’s it. Gurriel’s power is out of nowhere (juiced ball?), and he has just average bat speed; he’s killed sliders this year, and I wonder if teams will start pitching him differently since he doesn’t handle velocity well. The young guy you didn’t mention, Vlad Jr., is still going to be a star IMO even with the slower-than-projected start.

Jeff: Do you have a sense of why the Padres haven’t called up Urias yet? Is he still working on things at AAA or are they just waiting to clear roster space (e.g., Kinsler)? Thanks
Keith Law: The only thing I’ve heard, and this was secondhand, was that there were concerns about his swing – he may be too power-happy, and of course AAA/El Paso isn’t exactly the place to un-learn that.

Jeff: Given the Padres current/future middle infield depth, do you think either or both of Abrams and Edwards wind up in center field?
Keith Law: Abrams could. Really depends on how he looks over the next ~year at short. He’s physically able to play it, but also looks like he hasn’t had much coaching there.

David: Could Ke’Bryan Hayes get called up in September or is early next summer more likely? What would you do?
Keith Law: Should be up in September.

Trav: It feels less and less likely each day that we make it through Nov 2020 with our democracy remotely intact. No question, I just want to remind everyone that we’re not powerless until Election Day.
Keith Law: Agreed. Never too early to get involved or make your voice heard.

Andy: The players are in serious trouble in the upcoming CBA. There’s a whole lot of things they should want: Higher minimum salary, sooner free agency, no draft, better minor league pay, more on the revenue split. But they have little to negotiate with. Do they have to agree to a salary cap to get any of those? They’ll obviously punt on the minor leaguers/draft issue to help the current MLBPA members more, but that may not be enough. The only actual threat the players have, to increase their revenue vis a vis the owners, is a strike, which will be tough to gather enough momentum for.
Keith Law: Your last sentence is the key. They can strike. They may need to do so simply to remind owners of their willingness to take collective action for the long-term good of the union even if it hurts them in the short term. And striking for a higher minimum salary and for a greater share of industry revenues to reach players is as good a reason as there will ever be.

Brian in Austin: Keith, has Sam Huff put himself in top 100 consideration with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin : You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching? Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair.

Key Flaw: After actually seeing Vlad Jr. play third base, it certainly feels like he is a DH (he defense was ugly in the O’s series). With the Jay’s out of contention, it makes sense to keep running him out there. But how long does that last, and is there any chance that he actually improves enough to play 1st base, let alone 3rd base?
Keith Law: I really think his body is going to make him a full-time DH.

addoeh: You’ve talked about both recently. Who has better frozen custard, Culver’s or shake shack? Valdosta had your go to Concrete Mixer order and it was pretty good.
Keith Law: I like Culver’s a lot, but Shake Shack seems to have a better product – I don’t know if they use better inputs, or if their blending/freezing process is faster and produces less overrun.

Todd: Where does Robert Puason fit into Oakland’s prospect rankings right now? And if he develops at a typical pace, how long until we start seeing him in Top 100 discussions?
Keith Law: Eyeballing, I would say in the 6-10 range. He’s a LONG way off from the top 100.

Liam: About where on your top 50 would Carter Kieboom rank if he were eligible?
Keith Law: He is eligible. He just doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Kevin : Liberatore in the rotation for Tampa by June 2020?
Keith Law: He’s in low-A now on a tight innings limit. Think about it: Even if he’s promoted today to high-A, the season ends in less than eight weeks, and he’s not going to double-A until at the absolute earliest next April. There’s just no way this happens.

Jesse B: Are Daniel Lynch and Spencer Howard both still in the 50-60 range? Both have looked good but they’ve both had minor injures. Seems like since they’re both 22, they could move quickly if the injures don’t crop up again.
Keith Law: Lynch would have made it had he come back from this shutdown, but Howard’s issue is his shoulder and he’s been out too long.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for the insightful new prospect list this morning. I was a little surprised Heliot Ramos did not make your list (19 years old and performing well in High A). Do you see him as a top 100 prospect at this point? What pd
Keith Law: Probably top 100.

Carl: Is Yordan Alvarez still not a top 100 prospect for you?
Keith Law: He’s ineligible, since he’s in the majors.

Eric: Thanks for the chat, and the top 50 Keith. I know you’ve been a big Isan Diaz fan in the past. What are your thoughts on him after his big season so far? Too much question with the AAA ball to get him in the 50?
Keith Law: It’s the lack of recent performance and then he goes to AAA and hits like this … so is this the real Diaz, the guy I hoped he’d become maybe three years ago when I ranked him pretty highly, or is this a juiced ball mirage? He’d have been in the next 50 guys if I’d ranked 100.

Eric: What are your thoughts on George Valera? Chance for big helium and a spot on the offseason list?
Keith Law: I hear good things but he has barely played around injuries.

Andy: With all the tributes to Jim Bouton, I am reminded that Bowie Kuhn is in the HOF, but Marvin Miller isn’t. That was my biggest takeaway from the book, having an asshole in your corner is really good for the labor side.
Keith Law: Yep. Bowie Kuhn did more to destroy the game of baseball than anybody since Judge Landis. The Hall honoring him is a sick joke.
Keith Law: Oh, and by the way, the BBWAA still hasn’t removed Jim Reeves – who wrote an article just two months ago defending a former player accused of serial sexual assault of a child – from the Spink ballot. What a fucking joke.

John : Are Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch Mlb starters? Add Jackson to make up KC rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Lynch, if healthy, is a very good starter. Singer still looks like a reliever to me between the low slot and lack of a weapon for LHB. Kowar’s probability is somewhere in between the two. Bubic has a low ceiling but his starter odds are higher than Singer’s for me. Haven’t seen Bowlan here yet.

Rick: Afternoon KLaw, non-prospect question for you. Jake Arrieta seems to be quite the curmudgeon. His willingness to “be a team leader” in Philly (ie throw teammates and coaches under the bus when things don’t go his way while getting batters out at a replacement level clip) hasn’t exactly endeared him to either teammates or fans in the city. My question is was he always like this and just wasn’t held accountable in Chicago because he actually got batters out? His temper tantrum over an equally washed up Todd Frazier this past week was a bad look that didn’t portray either him or the organization in the best light.
Keith Law: I think your assessment is accurate – and I don’t see how MLB can avoid suspending him for threatening Frazier (“I’ll put a dent in his skull”). You can’t say that. You can think it, but MLB has to put the clamp down on public threats.

Pat D: Something that is annoying me mightily right now from the great cesspool that is NYC sports talk radio is the assumption that because Bumgarner was great in the postseason 5-7 years ago, he’ll be great in the postseason now, and for that reason alone, the Yankees should acquire him above anyone else. Is there any way you can even hope to present a counter-argument to someone entrenched with that belief?
Keith Law: No, probably because the basic premise is flawed, and you won’t convince someone one of their core beliefs is wrong.

Liam: What’s wrong with Thor?
Keith Law: Here’s one guess: this year’s super-smooth baseball is killing his slider.

Adam: At this point, would you rank Luciano, Ramos and Bishop ahead of Bart in the Giants farm system?
Keith Law: maybe, yes, no.

MJ: Fantastic work on the list, Keith. Any brief thoughts on Tyler Freeman? Seems to have some of the same plate/OBP skills as Alek Thomas and Nolan Jones, albeit without the athleticism of the former and potential pop of the latter.
Keith Law: He’s more in Thomas’ vein – and he’s pretty small, so his impact is really likely to be limited.
Keith Law: Nice player, though. Probably top 100, not close to this.

Denis: Surprised to see Gavin Lux at #5. If he switched to 2B is he still in the top 10? Also, if you are the Dodgers, who would you keep out of Smith/Ruiz? Does Ruiz still have the higher ceiling?
Keith Law: Ruiz has the higher ceiling but I’d keep Smith because he’s ready now. Not that either is a wrong choice. no reason to bump Lux from SS.

Ridley: Just to expand on Trav’s point, now that the Supreme Court has decided that gerrymandering is beyond their reach, there’s no better time to get involved at the local and state levels to ensure that independent commissions are in place to ensure that neither party abuses redistricting.
Keith Law: Right, because if your state is gerrymandered next time around, it may become de facto permanent.

SGz: What is the rationale for Jesus Luzardo missing the Top 50? Thanks.
Keith Law: What is the rationale for him making it? He’s 21 with a pretty lengthy list of injuries already.

Rick: As a constitutional conservative who didn’t vote in the 2016 presidential election (both candidates made me physically ill) I can’t see myself going to the ballot box in 2020 [again]. Trump is Trump, and the takeaway from the Dem debates so far was: keep southern border open for potential votes and cheap labor, expand healthcare to illegal aliens, pay off existing college debt, offer voting rights to felons and mid-teens. This is supposed to motivate me to vote? Still waiting for the voice of sanity to step up.
Keith Law: If that’s your takeaway from the debates, I think you went into the debates having already decided what you want to hear. A non-vote in 2020 is a vote for Trump. It means you’re fine with a status quo that is imprisoning children, mistreating them, exposing them to trauma, just because they’re brown. It means you’re cool with the world’s largest economy still pretending climate change isn’t real – even though huge portions of our economy and our country will be adversely affected by it. People will die needlessly because of this. It means you’re fine with a government that turns its back on democratic allies to support autocratic governments that assassinate political opponents, including journalists, because it suits short-term political aims. It means you’re fine with the kleptocracy that ignores rampant conflicts of interest, enriching officeholders across the government, because you just want low taxes and a ban on abortion. Yeah, you’re a Trump supporter. You just lack the courage to admit it.

John: Has Seth Beer impressed with his performance so far?
Keith Law: Really needs to show he can hit LHP.

mark: Dinelson Lamet recently returned to the Pads after TJS. What kind of upside does he have… #3 starter?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy who’ll end up in the pen if that doesn’t change.

Paul: I’m sure some of my fellow Braves fans are bitching about Waters’ omission; already saw one person on Twitter. Not here to do that, but am curious what you think of him? BABIP is absurd (.457) with an alarming K-rate and not many walks. Something he can fix or overcome with the rest of his game? And likelihood of him doing that? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Solid prospect but he’s a corner guy long term. The K rate isn’t alarming on its own, especially since he’s young for AA, but the combination of low walk rates his whole career and rising K rates is concerning. Again, like a lot of guys folks are asking about here, he’s a top 100 type, but this is just a 50, and that means I’m only ranking the best.

Justin: When players makes their major league debut why is the note that the player has been recalled by the team? Shouldn’t that be for players that were demoted and then brought back?
Keith Law: If a player is recalled, then he was demoted when he was optioned in spring training. When a player is recalled, it means he’s already on the 40-man; if he’s already on the 40-man, but was in the minors, then he was in major league spring training (the entire 40-man comes) and was sent to the minors on optional assignment before the spring ended. If the player isn’t on the 40-man, his contract is “purchased,” which means he’s added to the 40-man at the time he’s brought to the majors.

romorr: Hall and Rodriguez both have a reliever chance, Halls BB% is going the wrong way, and Rodriguez has funk in the delivery. But if you had to pick to stick in the rotation, would it be Rodriguez still?
Keith Law: It would not, and I think my ranking of them today and in the winter makes that clear.

addoeh: Two prospects from Wisconsin (Kelenic and Lux) in your top 8 and one from Chicago (Thomas) at 45 and I may have missed others from the Midwest. Along with Priester just being drafted in the 1st round, will the fear of prospects from cold states start to subside?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will, but I’m sort of okay with that. Some is just structural: we get fewer looks at high school players in cold climates. It’s also a reason for MLB to do more (and they’re doing some) to give those players chances to play in front of scouts against better competition.

Liam: My apologies if there is an obvious example I’m missing but have we ever seen an administration so blatantly go against a supreme court ruling as the current admin plans re: citizenship/census question?
Keith Law: Did Nixon? This is way out of my area.
Keith Law: Again, that’s another thing that anyone who abstains in 2020 is supporting: An overt rejection of the rule of law that has defined our system of government for nearly 250 years. You can even hate Trump’s opponent, but if you don’t vote him and his swamp dragons out, then you’re saying you are tacitly okay with what he’s doing.

Todd: With the news that Bubba Starling is getting called up to KC, do you think there’s even the tiniest chance he’ll spend time as a true big league regular?
Keith Law: No.

Ben: Why would anyone listen to sports talk radio? Have you ever encountered a decent STR station throughout your many travels across the country?
Keith Law: I don’t listen to terrestrial radio, ever, so I have no answer to that. I appear on a few sports radio programs and I know they treat me well by asking good questions.

Ron: I was surprised that Lewis even made your top 50 beings his first half was poor and his mechanics changed. Although he has started to heat up. Did he make any changes that you know of back to how he was before? Thanks!
Keith Law: I addressed that in the piece.

SGz: You had Luzardo at 31 on pre season rankings and he’s been very good when playing this year. Health was the knock in the pre season, so it seems like a reasonable question to ask why he was omitted.
Keith Law: Health was the knock and he’s been banged up again.

Joe: Justus Sheffield has put up good numbers after being sent to AA. Still the same guy he was before the season started in your mind?
Keith Law: I want to know why his velocity dropped off this year.

John: One concern about Dustin May – even to those who like him – is the results haven’t always matched the stuff. How legit is that concern for you?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate. He’s been outstanding this year.

mike sixel: Royce Lewis…..is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,
Keith Law: Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he’ll stay at short: He’s not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven’t.

Devin: Thoughts on Kristian Robinson? Candidate to crack your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 in the winter, so yes.

Tmh: What is Rutchman”s ETA?
Keith Law: I would say end of 2020 if they want.

romorr: Having a hard time getting a read on if Keegan Akin is ready for the majors. Orioles are starting guys they pick up off waivers like crazy, so it seems Akin needs to work on some things before a promotion.
Keith Law: I agree that seems to be the implication, although I’m not sure what they think is going to change in his profile, either.

John: Alexander Canario just hit his 8th hr in under 80 abs. Will he be a legit prospect for the org?
Keith Law: He is one.
Keith Law: He’s a legit prospect, I mean.

Rick Sanchez : Worried about Mize at all?
Keith Law: Not yet.
Keith Law: yeah I just triple-checked, the MLB.com story says there were no setbacks last night. After I sent that response I thought I might have missed something.

OC Joe: Newcomb and Touki have thrived in relief this season. With all of the starting pitching depth in the high minors for Atlanta, should they stay in the pen?
Keith Law: I think that’s Newcomb’s role, but Touki still has starter potential.

Rick: In regard to Liam’s comment on the Supreme Court this pains me as a holder of a BA and Master’s in History. Did your school system teach you literally NO AMERICAN HISTORY? Andrew Jackson’s response to the court’s ruling in Worcester v. Georgia: “Justice Marshall has made his decision now let him go enforce it.” Christ almighty I understand that you may have serious issues with this White House and it’s actions but try not to be completely ignorant on history when making “all encompassing” claims. When Trump says that then we can call it the greatest attack on the Supreme Court in our history. Until then its not on the medal stand.
Keith Law: I admit to having forgotten that entire case until I saw your quote from Jackson (it’s a good line by a terrible person), probably because it happened 140 years before I was born.

Matt M: Would Nico Hoerner crack your top 100?
Keith Law: Probably. A lot of people asking why he’s not on the top 50 and … again, why would he be? He has barely played this year due to injury and it’s not like he’s a huge tools guy: His value is in the expectation that he’s going to hit.

Valentin: Hi Keith. big fan from Bern, Switzerland. have you ever heard of Prospects coming from Switzerland? Kind regards
Keith Law: The Swiss have fielded teams in youth tournaments in Europe for a while, but I’ve never heard of a player signing from there. The most likely places for teams to find European prospects right now are Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, i think.

Tim: Vavra has been outstanding this season. Has he passed Vilade for you yet?
Keith Law: Vavra is two years older than Vilade (who is performing) and a level below. Both are prospects, but there’s not a strong argument right now for Vavra over Vilade – and Vavra is yet another college D1 product who should NOT be in low-A.

Jason: Harris or Warren?
Keith Law: I was about to ask what team. I might not be fully recovered yet.

John: Were you a big mixtape guy? I don’t know if you ever listen to my favorite local Seattle station (KEXP) or not, but they’re running a cool little mixtape contest. Given your affinity for music and playlists, seems like something you could have some fun with.
Keith Law: A little bit, yes – I would nearly always choose to listen to my own tapes and later CDs rather than listen to full albums or put on the radio.

addoeh: Have you ever heard of a player have a similar journey to the majors as Robel Garcia’s?
Keith Law: No, and I mean that literally: I don’t know of another player who went from Italy’s semipro league to the majors. It is movie material if he’s any good, maybe even if he’s not. Those are my people but the quality of baseball in Italy is not good.

Johnny O: Yankees seem to develop mid draft and int’l players well (#woo) but their first round picks have been questionable among the consensus and also aren’t panning out (Judge as the outlier in more ways than one). Volpe probably a reach, Siegler, Schmidt, Rutherford, Holder, Kaprielian, Clarkin. If Yanks are good at development, why are the missing on so many 1st round picks?
Keith Law: They are good at development, and they’ve had some very successful draft picks after the first round. Perhaps their process up top is different? Many teams approach their first picks a bit differently, and the Yankees often draft late in the round, where the types of high-upside players they value (they’re not looking for soft regulars – they want stars, or guys they think they can trade for stars) are either gone or carry some high risk.

Jeff: Stranger Things S3 thoughts?
Keith Law: Never seen the show. I need to finish Good Omens this weekend.
Keith Law: Well I never even got to announce this on Twitter – sorry, I feel bad about that – but I jumped right into it and forgot to post the tweet. Thanks to you diehards who saw this on my Facebook page or just checked the dish since it’s Thursday! I’m going to wrap this up before I pass out. I believe I will be back to chat again the next two Thursdays before taking a week off (Gen Con!). Enjoy your weekends and the return of baseball tonight.

My ranking of the top 25 MLB players under age 25 is up for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a scouting post that covers Grayson Rodriguez, Deivi Garcia, and more.

Keith Law: Well known in the streets and the gutters. Klawchat.

Dave C: If the Mets didn’t make that ill advised Cano/Diaz trade would they have a top 5 minor league system after this past draft?
Keith Law: Probably? Have to factor in what other teams have done since as well, but with Kelenic/Dunn both doing so well plus a very strong draft and only one major graduation (Alonso) they’d be in great shape.

Chris: What is Tony Gonsolin going to be long term?
Keith Law: Still TBD. Starter potential.

Scott: How close was Victor Robles to making your top 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: I didn’t go beyond 25. Sorry.

Dave C: Now that he’s signed where would Allan slot versus the Mets other top pitching prospects- Kay, Peterson, Szapucki and Woods-Richardson?
Keith Law: Behind Kay. I think ahead of the others.

Zach: Are we finally seeing the version of Kevin Newman you’ve long championed?
Keith Law: Mostly. Bear in mind his BABIP is not going to stay at .400+ – same for Bryan Reynolds – but Newman’s high contact rates will help him even as that drifts downward.

Dave C: Can Dominic Smith be an effective Left Fielder? He’s at 0 DRS, -.2 UZR on fangraphs but I don’t know if that’s sustainable.
Keith Law: My guess is no, although I’d like him to prove me wrong on that.

Hollis: Cody Bolton just got promoted to AA. Is he a Top 100 guy in your next round of evaluations?
Keith Law: No.

Moe Mentum: Is the skepticism more about the two-city model in general, or specifically about Montreal’s and/or Tampa’s support system (investors, fans, voters, etc.)? In other words, could other cities pull off a shared team approach?
Keith Law: Two cities that were closer might pull it off, but why would two different cities fund stadiums that would only be used 40-41 times a year? No team is paying to build two; most refuse to even build one.

Scott: How do you grade the year that Carter Kieboom is having? He was over matched in the big leagues although in a very SSS. He has however absolutely RAKED in Fresno. How do you reconcile that and how has it changed your thoughts on him as a prospect either for better or worse?
Keith Law: Raking in AAA doesn’t change my view on any prospect given the juiced ball there.

Dan: Jazz Chisholm seems to be hitting the ball hard, just not all that often. Any reason to be concerned about the hit tool in his exposure to AA pitching?
Keith Law: Nope. I’m still in.

Keith Law Disciple: Should I have any optimism for Logan Warmoth – got promoted to Double A, but not showing much in the way of power and strikes out a ton.
Keith Law: I’m out … every scout I’ve asked who’s seen him has buried him.

Jake: Are you downgrading Royce Lewis because of his swing change? Do you still think he can be a 60 hitter or is there legitimate concern here?
Keith Law: He’s not a future 60 hitter with the current swing/setup, but what prevents him from going back to his old mechanics? I take guys like him and slide them down a little bit to acknowledge the change, but it’s not like I’d drop him out of the top 50 for this. There is no reason he can’t just restore the way he hit last year and become a top 10-15 prospect again.

Andrew: Who would you rather have for the next ten years, Paddock or Gore?
Keith Law: Gore.

Jake: Kowar got the bump to AA and had a nice first start. How long before Lynch follows the former Gators?
Keith Law: He hasn’t pitched in almost four weeks, so it may be a while.

Todd: Whats Deivi Garcia’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Good mid-rotation guy. Lot of risk with that frame, but the stuff is real.

Jose: Do you go to Cape this year?
Keith Law: Although I’d love to, my schedule in July is not cooperating and I may skip it this year for minor league stuff, Under Armour, and non-baseball commitments.

Tim : I watched the college World Series and thought it was great baseball. But I didn’t understand why there was so much bunting. Can you explain it? Aren’t the analytics against bunting at the mlb level the same at the highest college level?
Keith Law: Yes, but college coaches are obsessed with sac bunting as a whole. It’s easier to teach bunting than to teach hitting, I guess.

JC: Hi Keith- I know you haven’t been as high on Torkeleon as others. While he isn’t a good defender, has anything on your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: That’s simply not true.

cm: Are you aware of any studies that say changing arm slot while pitching can increase arm health? If not, any thought on this idea?
Keith Law: Doesn’t it depend on the before and after?

Nelson: Keith, ever consider putting more uplifting links in your stick to baseball page? Sometimes its 25 downright depressing links
Keith Law: Well, the world is burning, diseases are spreading, and the Supreme Court just told voters democracy is optional. My links aren’t depressing; reality is.

Dd: I would have a really hard time getting excited for Biden, his voting record, Anita Hill, the gaffs.. 100% of my energy would be Anti- Trump. Not sure that Biden turns out young/unreliable voters out either because he isn’t that progressive.
The Dems are probably running at least 10 people who are a better choice.
Do you think we see Biden drop in the polls as people learn about his lousy voting record and voters get to know any of the four female Senators, all whom would be excellent choices?
Keith Law: I really don’t think he’s going to end up the candidate.

Steve: Think Adell gets a call up at some point this season?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: With the picks Atlanta made from rounds 11-19, how much did that increase their draft haul? Is this a long-term strategy or just a one-time thing?
Keith Law: Very good strategy for this year’s draft class. It turned their draft class from “huh” to “pretty good.”

Jordan: What the heck are the Astros going to do with Kyle Tucker? Springer, Reddick, Alvarez and Brantley are blocking him and he needs to be playing in the big leagues right now.
Keith Law: Feels like trade bait. Doesn’t help that someone in Houston keeps leaking stories that he’s not liked in the clubhouse.

Neema: Hey Keith, love your work on ESPN! What are your thoughts on JP Crawford’s improved play this year? Do you think the breakout we’re seeing so far is legitimate?
Keith Law: Like Newman, his BABIP is unsustainable, but I still think the rest of the skill set is real – he’s always had a good eye and willingness to get to two strikes, and he has all-fields doubles power, but he got very pull-happy in Philly (and in AAA). He’s gotten back to using the whole field again and it’s helping.

Matt: How uncommon is it that Giolito has found success by largely going away from his curve, which it seems like most prospect evaluators (including you I believe) saw as his strongest pitch when he was coming up through the minors. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s very surprising but if the pitch isn’t working for you you can’t force it. The changeup is plus, and he’s commanding the FB like never before.

Mac: You a Tesla or other EV guy?
Keith Law: Would love one but not at the current cost. I have had a Civic hybrid for six years and love it.

Kevin : In a fair world MLB would help pay for a new Rays stadium in Tampa Bay after using the region to create leverage for other teams for decades, but because life is shit should I just resign to losing my team in 8 years?
Keith Law: Yep, I think they’re toast.

Gary: What do you think is Jeff McNeil’s true talent level?
Keith Law: He’s third in the majors in BABIP, so we can probably bet on a good bit of regression. (Sorry, I didn’t mean to make this the “so-and-so’s BABIP is unsustainable chat.”) That said, as long as he keeps his K% so low he’s going to have plenty of value even without much power. Probably makes him a soft regular whenever the BABIP comes down to earth – although his ‘natural’ BABIP is probably higher than league average, given what we’ve seen in the last 11 months.

Brian: I’m not sure if you saw deadspin’s piece today about foul ball injuries but after reading it, how can MLB defend not extending netting at every park?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the piece, but come on, are we waiting for a child to die?

Joe: Aside from drastic moves organizationally (like the Astros a couple years ago) is it common for scouts to change teams somewhat frequently? Or would it not be uncommon for one scout to spend an entire career with an organization despite several changes in GM?
Keith Law: Scouts change teams all the time. There’s still too much of a sense in front offices that they’re … not quite disposable, but more easily replaced than they actually are.

Ryan: The Dbacks tried hiring an agent to be their GM and it was a train wreck. Same thing seems to be happening to the Mets
Keith Law: Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.

Todd: Did you think Gleyber would have 30HR type potential?
Keith Law: No but the current baseball has skewed any HR projections I had for players. I thought Alonso would be a 35-40 HR guy and he’s on pace for 50.

Jack Meoff: Keith big fan!! Thank you for all you do. Is Catan a top 10 board game for you?
Keith Law: In historical importance and influence, yes. It might be #1. In my personal preferences, no. It’s a fine game, but you can wait too long between turns, and it doesn’t work with two players.

Josh Nelson: Is having just three starting pitchers the new market inefficiency? Asking for White Sox fans.
Keith Law: It’s a bold strategy, Nelson. Let’s see how it works out for you.

Kevin: With the Red Sox bullpen struggles is there any chance someone like Tanner Houck can provide relief help in the 2nd half of the season or is it too soon for him? Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Would love to see him.

Eric: Was Yordan Alvarez eligible for your 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: Players who still have ROY eligibility are not eligible for the list.

Ben: Would you guess we see some more deals happen earlier in July this year? 1 win would make a huge difference for a ton of these bubble teams
Keith Law: Yes. That’s my hope as well.

TheLostBoy: Are you a weekly watcher of “Last Week Tonight”?
Keith Law: I was, and I still like the show, but in this environment it’s just more things to get angry about when I am already angry enough about the world we’re creating for the next generation. (Or the generation after that, if we haven’t scorched the planet by then.)

Adam: Mackenzie Gore is dominating A+ and doesnt look like he’s being challenged. Do you see a quick ascent to the majors in the next 12 months or is he still a few years away?
Keith Law: I could see him mid-next year; the Padres don’t wait, and why would you wait on an arm that good already? But I can’t see them pushing him to the majors this year.

J: Do you happen to have like an author page, that has all of your articles for e+?
Keith Law: No, ESPN discontinued those. I asked for a new one but was told they don’t do them. (shrug)

Ben: Starting Adley at a bad level?
Keith Law: Have they announced where he’s starting? I haven’t seen that. Also, I assume that was a typo.

J: Okay, so instead of changing the literal distance a pitcher must pitch the ball, the chance MLB addresses the problem with the ACTUAL ball?
Keith Law: First they’d have to admit they have a problem.

Jason: Drew Waters is raking in AA, but he’s only 20. What’s a realistic ETA for him? And how excited should I be about him, recognizing I’m just scouting a stat line.
Keith Law: He’s raking but also striking out a lot and barely walking, which isn’t a fatal flaw but could indicate some deficiencies in the approach that are getting masked by the high average and power.

Ben: How come the Dbacks didn’t select Matt Allen with any of their picks if he was so good?
Keith Law: Because they didn’t want to commit well over slot to signing him.

Baltimurph: Following up on your scouting report, do you think Grayson Rodriguez is a future MLB starter as is or do you think his mechanics need to be totally rebuilt?
Keith Law: I can’t think of an MLB starter who throws like that. Any examples I could come up with who were close ended up getting hurt.

romorr: Adley was thought of as a fast riser. Him going to GCL/A- should put that to rest, right?
Keith Law: Wrong.
Keith Law: Where he starts isn’t really relevant to the question of how fast he’ll move. He may start in Aberdeen because it’s so close to Baltimore, for example.

Zac: Is Kumar Rocker trending towards a top 5 pick in 2 years?
Keith Law: I said on the podcast this morning that I’d go top 10, but not stronger. There’s a whole class of players we’ve barely seen for the 2021 draft, and putting Rocker in a bucket like that now doesn’t adequately consider the rest of the candidates.

John: Esteban Florial a future all star?
Keith Law: I don’t see it. Pitch recognition is still a problem.

Ben: Have you ever had surgery? Would you be scared?
Keith Law: Twice. Wasn’t scared but can’t say I enjoyed any of it.

Chris: Given how bad the Mets pitching is, I’d consider selling incredibly high on Alonso for 4-5 good young arms and bump Smith to 1B. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership would allow it, and fans would riot, but trading Alonso now for something – they’re not getting 4-5 good young arms, those deals do not exist – would have merit. I think it’s way more likely they deal Dom.

Rick Saul: What happened to Manuel Margot’s offense?. Has ship sailed on him being a productive MLBer?
Keith Law: Still just 24.
Keith Law: All the ex-prospects who broke out this year should serve as a nice reminder to stop giving up too soon on ex-prospects.

Sally: Hello Keith big fan. Is the Ooni oven great?
Keith Law: I love it. I’ve gotten it up to 900 degrees (actually too hot, the bottom of the crust started to burn), can hold it in the 770-800 range for a while, found it easy to work with. You just have to keep feeding it pellets to keep the temp up; once it drops, it drops fast and takes a while to heat back up.

Ryan: Did you see the article on The Athletic on the Ranger’s failed de-load program? Are there any other teams trying new throwing programs to help prevent arm injuries?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that either but I have heard a lot of whispers of something they were trying that pitchers/agents suspected was contributing to their rash of injuries. Always hard to tell what’s legit and what’s griping.

cm: On the arm slots, I meant using more than one slot while pitching. For example, like David Cone used to at times.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you, I did not understand. I don’t think so; I would guess that for most pitchers it would increase injury risk because you’re trying to use muscles you don’t normally use to throw.

Adam: WIth so much young talent under the age of 24 succeeding early in MLB, do you see arbitration years being adjusted with new CBA? Seeing players like Judge/Bellinger/ getting under 1Mil per year is insane
Keith Law: I would really like to see that. The union has to change its focus for the next negotiation towards paying young players more, whether via more arb years or earlier free agency.

Mike: Are Casey Mize’s mechanics going to lead to continues arm problems?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: As a D-Backs fan how excited should I be about Tommy Henry? He was dominant in the CWS. While he doesn’t have the velocity everyone is obsessed with now the control and movement looked outstanding.
Keith Law: Back-end starter.

Indians system: Is Mahoning Valley key to Indians’ future? Rocchio, Valera, Hankins, Delgado
Keith Law: Their strongest affiliate for future talent.

Sally: How often do you and Chris Crawford hangout? Love you both on twitter
Keith Law: We’ve only hung out 2-3 times, but we talk online every day. Mostly baseball and movies but other stuff too. Great dude.

Robert: Does the uniqueness of Nick Madrigal’s profile make him more difficult to assess as a prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Uli Jon: My friend is going to Gen Con. Do you have an updated dining guide or just a few places you can recommend?
Keith Law: I eat at the food trucks that line up next to the convention center. There are some great ones – Keplinger’s Fresh Catch is the first place I eat each year.

Feeling A Draft: Based on what you said about this coming year’s draft on the BBTN podcast do you think it would be smart of teams at this year’s trade deadline to try to acquire competitive balance picks?
Keith Law: For sure. But most teams want to retain those, so my guess is only 1-2 get moved.

BigDaddeh: Do you think the Mets success is going to lead to other teams using former agents as GMs?
Keith Law: (spit take)

Paul: Hey Keith – your love for Oreo’s is well-known and righteous. I saw your tweet last night as I happened to be eating an Oreo Blizzard from Dairy Queen, and it got me wondering: any KLaw thoughts on Oreo Blizzards? Also if this question makes the chat, I’d just like to also announce that Oreo McFlurries are trash and don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Oreo Blizzards, thank you for your time.
Keith Law: I do love oreos mixed into ice cream. When I go to Culvers (rare, but I love it), my go-to is a chocolate concrete with oreos and pecans.

Bob Pollard: Sorry if you’ve addressed this (probably have many times), but where do you stand on “clutch is a myth/no it’s real”?
Keith Law: It’s a myth. I explain at length in Smart Baseball.

BigDaddeh: Is Nick Solak an every day guy one in the majors?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under.

Tom C: Why don’t you think Adell will get called up this year? Setback because of his injury earlier this season? I was thinking maybe it could be like a Trout scenario where they call him up late and prep to be up for good next year.
Keith Law: He’s barely played this year, and they’d be adding him to the 40-man before they needed to do so.

Andrew: Corbin Martin BB/9 at A and AA was 2.5, now this year 4.5 in AAA (was 5.5 w/ HOU). Reason for concern or just growing pains?
Keith Law: Again, the ball in AAA is different than in AA.

Dave: What did you think when you heard that the Mets were having Rosario take reps in CF? I don’t know what the heck happened to his defense at SS but it has been atrocious going on two years now. Do you think he could make a plus defensive CFer?
Keith Law: His regression on defense has to be laid on the coaching staff. I saw him in the minors, so did everyone else. Nobody had him playing like this.

Mat Ji: I’m old enough to remember back when Bauer was going to stop being an internet troll….way back in January of 2019.
Keith Law: He’s gone out of his way to attack at least two women writers I know just since this season began. He can say whatever dumb shit he wants to me, but the story I heard the other day – I don’t know if I can repeat any of this – is beyond trolling. Writers who continue to talk him up are just enabling him.
Keith Law: And, by the way, there are 750+ other players out there. I’m sure there’s at least one more guy who is analytically-minded and focused on self-improvement through modern methods, and would be happy to talk about it on the record.

JP: Is Yamamoto a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: No.

alek: what is Alec Bohm’s offensive potential
Keith Law: I think there’s some middle-of-the-order potential there. He’s 90% likely to do it at first base, though, and the Phillies have a pretty good one.

John: What’s Luis Arraez’s ceiling, everyday 2B? More likely outcome utility guy?
Keith Law: More likely utility guy but I wouldn’t rule out everyday.

romorr: Adley to GCL to knock off rust, then to A-. From press conference.
Keith Law: Yeah I don’t see how that would mean he’s not a fast mover … why couldn’t he start next year in AA?

Chris: Would you include C Will Smith in a trade for Felipe Rivero? What else would the Dodgers have to kick in?
Keith Law: I would not but I value relievers lower than the trade market seems to.

Mark: When do you think Luis Urias gets recalled?
Keith Law: I mean, he should have been up a month ago.

Jackson: Do you project Alzolay as a SP? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I think so, as long as he can get LHB out with the FB/CB (or his CH really improves).

Capt. Gore: “if we haven’t scorched the planet by then” he said as he hoped in a plane and flew across the country….again…
Keith Law: Capt. Gore: “Yet you participate in society. Curious! I am very intelligent.”

Jonathan: Thoughts on Jake Cronenworth. Hitting well and heard he was up to 95 from the mound.
Keith Law: Interesting. Up to 96 with a plus CB, small mechanical tweaks last year at the plate that let him drive the ball better. Older guy for a prospect, so I’m skeptical as always of how much is just age vs level, but there are tangible skills there.

Trey Anastasio: Have you ever seen Phish live?
Keith Law: OK someone’s trolling me. I’m seeing them for the first time this weekend and I think you know this.

James: Do top College pitchers get time to rest their arms? Seems like it is year round pitching with fall ball, summer Ball and then the season?
Keith Law: More college arms skip the summer than ever before. As much as I would like more chances to see them, this is the right call for the pitchers.

Craig: Do you think a “deader” ball would reduce the reliance on 3 True Outcomes baseball, mainly because it would quickly become inefficient for average/mediocre players?
Keith Law: Yes. That said, I don’t want a ball that leads to even more strikeouts. I just want a HR rate more in line with historical levels.

Jonathan: Is Shane Bieber the next James Shields, which is a good thing, or is there more there?
Keith Law: No, this is it. And it’s fine. Back end starter type because he’ll always be HR prone.

Kev: What is your % belief that Vargas actually has legit dirt/excuse for why he was being a gigantic asshole bully to the reporter last week?
Keith Law: Zero. And frankly, even if he does have it, just apologize in public and deal with this in private.

Jesse B: Keibert Ruiz has really struggled this year, obviously he’s still really young. Meanwhile, Will Smith is thriving in AAA, and done well in his cup of coffee. Is it safe to say that Will Smith will be the starting catcher for the Dodgers next year?
Keith Law: Yes but that doesn’t dim Ruiz’s potential, as he’s so much younger.

Jeries: Could Nick Madrigal play shortstop? Tim Anderson has been BAD this year
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Trey Anastasio: My take on the Red Sox future is that they would be wise to lock up Devers & Betts (Xander already signed)… and use Benintendi as a trade chip for a young SP. What you be on board fo that strategy?
Keith Law: Yes but it sounds like Mookie wants to go to free agency, no? Devers I’m sure they could lock up.

Alex: Hey Keith, I haven’t had the chance to write in since the Kumar Rocker 19 K start. I 100% agree that he was left in too long, especially seeing as he hasn’t received his baseball millions yet. Still, in the moment, that was the most fun random baseball game I have watched from beginning to end in ages. It’s kind of similar to knowing that home runs and fly balls above all is a better strategy than small ball and putting the ball in play. I don’t really have a question, except to bemoan that the more we learn, the less exciting baseball can be.
Keith Law: Sure, I don’t disagree. But I will say that this idea that Rocker did something he’ll remember forever is a bit much. Maybe in the moment it felt that way, but “threw a no-hitter in a college playoff super regional” is pretty niche. Great personal achievement but hardly worth pushing a kid’s arm too far.

Jon: Never hire off the interview. Is that for all jobs in your opinion or just baseball? If the former, why have interviews? Thanks.
Mat Ji: “Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.” Having sat through multiple pointless interviews with candidates this week, I am not sure I could agree more.
Keith Law: I feel like Mat just answered Jon a bit. Why have interviews? Aren’t they 90% eyewash? They likely often deter decision-makers from hiring the better employee because they hire the person they liked more (perhaps for subconscious reasons, perhaps even biased ones) or the person who was more animated or funnier or energetic.

Ben: This time next year Reilly Greene will be playing at ____ level?
Keith Law: Low A.

fish: christian pache will be an elite defender T/F? pache will be a league-average hitter at best T/F?
Keith Law: He is an elite defender. He will find his way to league average with power.

Sally: Why have you not be as hard on Dodgers Urias for domestic violence as you have on others? Such as Addison Russell
Keith Law: Charges were dropped and MLB declined to suspend him. Russell was suspended, so MLB found sufficient cause, and his ex-wife came forward with a very detailed account of the abuse.

Mike: What do teams do with players and prospects like franklin Perez and Roman Quinn who always seem to be hurt. Do you rush them and hope you can extract value until they are inevitably hurt again or try and move them to a team that thinks they can unlock the potential and cure their injury issues.
Keith Law: If you have the playing time to give them, you try to hold on to them and give them opportunities until you either have a better option or you need the 40-man spot.

romorr: I just figured since the Orioles are so far away from being good, that they would be conservative with him. You know, maybe 3 years down instead of 2. Was thinking he was bound for Delmarva from the start, so just trying to understand.
Keith Law: I would guess he starts next year in Frederick, moves quickly to Bowie, and is in position for a major-league callup by August. They may choose not to do so, as you said, because they’re not good, but in terms of his readiness, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t blitz his way through the low minors to double-A.

Biff: What do you make of Alex Reyes’ inability to stay healthy?
Keith Law: I’ve always disliked his delivery. Maybe that’s why. Maybe it’s just bad luck.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe he can’t stay healthy because of his delivery, not because I don’t like the delivery. I’m not that powerful.

EG: Gerrymandering okay, says US Supreme Court. The 2016 Electron will haunt us for decades.
Keith Law: Yep. We got what we deserved.

Magoo: Hey Keith, huge board game nerd with a 9 month old here. Obviously still quite early for me, but good suggestions for beginner games, and what age would be good to start?
Keith Law: There are really good games aimed at kids 4+. Before then just play anything at all that they like – it’s the playing with them that matters, not the game.

Jofp gallagher: Do you believe the Lucas Giolito in the future will be more like this year’s Giolito or last year’s Giolito?
From worse to one of the best pitchers is a remarkable achievement so I wonder.
Keith Law: I’m in. Real changes to delivery and stuff.

Jason: Ceiling on Austin Riley?
Keith Law: Got to make more contact first.

Ridley: I’m always excited to see Elizabeth Warren speak. Is that legit, or is it just the novelty of potentially having a President who is willing to do the work to learn a subject and come up with an intelligent policy for it?

P.S. Regarding interviews: Never hire off an interview, but you can absolutely disqualify candidates based on ’em.
Keith Law: She’s my favored candidate right now, as she has real policy proposals with substance behind them, and everything she says seems well-considered. What a concept.
Keith Law: Gotta run – thanks for all your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week for one more pre-Futures Game chat. And come see me at the Hudson Library & Historical Society on July 8th in Hudson, Ohio. Thanks again!

I have two new posts up at Paste this week: a wrapup of the new games I saw last week at the Origins Gaming Fair, and a review of the new roll-and-write game Corinth from Days of Wonder.

Keith Law: So if you’re tired of the same old story … it’s Klawchat.

addoeh: I watching Tanner Anderson’s wind-up and I didn’t realize your alma mater teaches the “Ministry of Silly Walks” delivery.
Keith Law: Hey, us Harvard guys are just a bunch of plucky underdogs. No one gave us any advantages. We’re all self-made like that.

Nick: What’s the best fried chicken you’ve had?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack in San Diego, probably because they use the best chicken.

Robert: How would CJ Abrams compare to Royce Lewis as amateurs? They seem quite similar.
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar at all other than their speed. Lewis had more impact with the bat. Abrams is a better shortstop right now than Lewis at the same age.

Mike: I keep reading good reports on Kelenic this year. Is he looking more and more like a top 20 prospect?
Keith Law: No question.

Mike in Seattle: Hi Keith – love your work and was wondering if you planned on doing an mid-season updated prospect ranking this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I do this every year on the Thursday of All-Star Week. This year that will be July 11th.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I hate thinking that the Braves “did the right thing” in refusing to hand out multiyear free agent deals and waiting to sign Keuchel to a one-year deal two months into the season — this boring bean-counter baseball is appalling labor economics and it sucks to watch. But it’s not poor strategy.We all know the MLBPA has a tough row to hoe in the next CBA. Is there anything that journalists and writers can do in writing about free agents to
Keith Law: It’s not poor strategy if you get the player, right? What if you could have had Keuchel on Opening Day and got 30 starts from him … but instead, you didn’t sign him, and you miss the playoffs by a game?

Alex: We know the next CBA is going to be tough for players, as owners have (somehow) decided upon collective stinginess as a strategy. Are there any best practices for journalists and writers, when writing about free agents and free agency, to make the guaranteed dollar amount less of a focus than the actual human player?
Keith Law: Sorry, this looks like the second part of your question. A good start would be for writers to stop acting as if players who earn eight figures aren’t deserving – this money exists in the sport because MLB teams are highly profitable. If the players aren’t paid, the excess goes to owners.

Tom B: Phillies moving Alec Bohm at the right speed? What do you see as his ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Starting him in low-A was a colossal waste of everyone’s time. He was the third pick in the draft out of college. If he wasn’t ready for high-A on Opening Day this year at age 22, he was the wrong pick.

M: Adbert Alzolay had a really nice debut last night. Can he stick around with the big league team this year?
Keith Law: Yes. The bigger question is whether his improved FB command and better CB are enough to let him get lefties out three times through an order. If not, he’s still a valuable bullpen piece. But if they can, he can start now.

Kyle KS: Does the juiced ball benefit pitch speed and spin rate? If it has reduced drag while in the air when it’s hit, does it do the same for pitchers or is the distance and time from the mound to the catcher too short to have effect?
Keith Law: The altered baseball changes everything – spin rate, drag, carry – although I don’t think it affects pitch speed. Better question for a physicist.

Ben: Is this the Max Kepler you were expecting?
Keith Law: Yes but I was a year early, again.

Ben: Odds we see Bo Bichette this year?
Keith Law: Very good if healthy.

Steve: I believe in a past chat you said WRC+ is not a great way to evaluate minor league players but I cannot recall why. If that’s your sentiment, could you elaborate?
Keith Law: It only measures production, but we don’t necessarily care about production with prospects – how you get to the production is just as important, and sometimes we’re happy with prospects who don’t produce a ton but aren’t overmatched, such as teenagers in full season leagues. Chase Vallot is my go-to example: He posted a 136 wRC+ in high-A two years ago, and wasn’t old for the level, but he really couldn’t hit. He saw enough bad pitching, since it was A-ball, that he could beat up on that enough for a good wRC+ despite getting blown away by even average major league stuff. Last I checked he was back in low-A and still not hitting.

Felix: Do you happen to know when we will see Eric Pardinho toe the rubber this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t asked anyone but I assume now that short-season has begun we’ll see him.

Kevin: Given how the Mets have played this year, and how Diaz has been relatively average this year plus Cano is hurt. And Kelenic has been great this year. Was that the dumbest trade in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: This trade is going to haunt them for a long time. Dunn has also been excellent for Seattle in AA.

Dave: Do you like the Bulls taking White at 7? Seems like a good fit & you might miss some of the injury risk that comes with Garland.
Keith Law: Jon Garland?

Bill: Keith, no question. Just wanted to thank you for the book recommendation on The Master and Margarita (via your top-100 novels list). Such a terrific read. There are so many wonderful layers to that book – I couldn’t put it down. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I’ve read well over a thousand novels now and that is still my favorite. It’s one of the only books I have ever read twice, and it holds up.

Janey: Do you feel stress over the border situation and how the US now are the bad guys? 40+ people in rooms meant for 8, kids taking care of kids, separated families. Any advice on what can be done before we get the chance to vote people out?
Keith Law: I’m afraid that I’m getting desensitized because there is so much bad news (if you care about human rights, or just feel empathy at all). If you live in a red district, though, you should be all over your elected reps to voice your displeasure – and if you live in a blue one, as I do, make sure your reps know where you stand.

Matt: Aside from a couple starts Alex Faedo has been impressive in AA this year. Jason Beck said scouts had him sitting 94-95 in his last start. If his velo is back to that is he a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not sitting 94-95. I’ve spoken to multiple scouts who’ve seen him and nobody reported that.
Keith Law: He’s probably a reliever but could be a back-end starter.

Jon: Are you surprised Nolan Gorman isn’t skipping straight to AA like the cardinals usually do with offensive prospects? How do you think he will fare in such a pitcher friendly league?
Keith Law: He’s only 19, that would make no sense to jump him to AA.

Mike in Sweden: Why did everyone think that 1B was Bellinger’s “natural” position?
Keith Law: It was his primary position in HS and he’s at least a 70 defender there.

Jerry: What is Seth Beer’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday DH. Might have some platoon split issues to work on.

Seth: The Yankees have now had 6 separate shoulder injuries this season (Betances, Severino, Stanton, Andujar, Loaisiga, Montgomery). I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but doesn’t that feel like more than a coincidence? Could this be a strength and conditioning issue?
Keith Law: Bit of a coincidence, I think; Loaisiga has been injury-prone since before he signed, and Severino’s delivery was always a red flag. Plus Stanton seems like he should be in a different category from the five pitchers.

BalbonisImpactedColon: Is Clint Frazier in the Yankees org at the end of the year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Adam: I saw a recent report that said Allard was sitting 91-93 and the bite on the curve was back (didnt know it left). Have you heard anything along those lines?
Keith Law: Nope. I don’t believe that velocity either.

CRAIG BIGGIO: YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT MY BOY WERENT YOU? ADMIT IT
Keith Law: YOUR BOY IS HITTING .203 and striking out nearly 30% of the time.

Rando : Chisholm had potential to make a huge leap on your rankings does he now have a chance to fall out of the top 100?
Keith Law: What? Why would he fall out of the top 100? He’s still one of the best prospects in baseball.

Joe: Thoughts on the EE trade? I didn’t see a write-up.
Keith Law: No writeup. No thoughts, really.

Jake: Gallen or Alzolay a better pitching prospect? Both seem to be having better years this year
Keith Law: Alzolay.

Peet: Is Preller just a bad negotiator? Gave Weathers full slot last year and broke the bank with Hudson Head. Or is Head actually worth that much?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t pay that much for Head. (Phrasing, boom!) Don’t know why giving Weathers slot was bad, though. That was his range in the draft.

Jonathan: Heard an interesting Hidden Brain recently talking about the Placebo Effect. If there are studies showing results without real medical intervention, is this a good road to go down? Is it ethical, and maybe most importantly, is it real?
Keith Law: The placebo effect is real. Charging people for it, however, is probably unethical.

PJ: I am all for the safety of expanded netting, and know you are too. But I think the change needs to happen in tandem with changing the location of the cameras for baseball telecasts. Too many teams let wires and poles and netting get in the way of the tv viewing. There’s sometimes a catch by the RF or LF is hidden behind a load-supporting wire.
Keith Law: Sure but isn’t that an easy fix?

JR: Thoughts on Anthony Kay and his development? Does he make it to MLB this year? Is he ready?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready. Could see him recalled if they trade one or more starters next month.

Sam: Have you heard anything on Royce Lewis? Numbers don’t look so great…thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned his swing & setup changes already … way too many moving parts. Not sure who taught him that but I imagine the Twins aren’t pleased.

Ryan: Tatis Jr. has been on fire since coming back off the IL. What’s his ceiling at his peak. Perennial MVP candidate?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Quinn the Eskimo: In your opinion, is College Baseball at all levels too “white”? Too much talk about “fundamentals” and “playing the game the right way”, etc…
Keith Law: It’s very white on the field, too, probably a function of disparate opportunities at youth levels and the lack of full scholarships. Baseball’s an expensive sport to play.

Bobby: Still think Dom Smith > Alonso?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matt: What in the world happened with Mike Vasil?
Keith Law: He made a bad choice.

Brett : What methods of cooking is spatchcocking a chicken especially good for?
Keith Law: High-heat roasting. Apparently good for grilling but I’ve never tried it.

Matt: If Verlander pitches another 6 years and ages well he could finish top 10 all time in SP WAR and top 6 post WWII. If he ages really well or pitches longer he could finish in the Maddux, RJ and Ryan category. He is one of the best pitchers of all time and I don’t think he gets enough credit. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I think he gets credit. He’s a clear HoFer.

Josh: Is there still room for Amed Rosario to become an above average regular? Hes only 23, but he is also a Met. You understand my confusion.
Keith Law: I’m still in.

Jim: Keith, Thanks as always for the chats. Have you heard anything on the status of the Nats’ Mason Denaburg? He didn’t pitch after being drafted because of (IIRC) biceps tendinitis. He’s listed on the Auburn NY-Penn roster, but others have said that’s unconfirmed. It would be … weird … if their 2019 #1 pick started pitching before their 2018 #1.
Keith Law: I thought he was also fighting some injury this spring. I could be wrong.

JR: Your daughter still appreciate animated movies? Will you be seeing Toy Story 4 this weekend?
Keith Law: Yes, but not seeing it first weekend. Let the crowds die down a bit.

Dave: What aspect of baseball do you think is under-covered right now?
Keith Law: Minor league salaries.

TJ: Re Matt Boyd: Frazier and Florial or Dom Smith and Gimenez too much to ask? Too little? About right?
Keith Law: Why would the Mets trade for him? The Yankees offer seems reasonable, but then again I’m not a big believer in Florial’s chance to learn to recognize pitches.

Kretin: Think the Mets sign Allan?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: They did not draft him on a whim. They clearly believed they had the money he wanted. If he doesn’t sign it’s likely some non-financial issue. But I believe he’ll sign.

Matt: When does a team blow up the entire draft system by spending much more than the limit and getting a great draft haul of “unsignable players.” Losing the picks in the future hurts, but couldn’t they just do the same thing every year? Not having a first round pick hurts less if you spend the same way every year.
Keith Law: You’d essentially punt the next draft or two by doing this. It might be a valid strategy but the risk + backlash would be substantial.

Tock: To what range do you see Deivi rising in the mid-season rankings?
Keith Law: He’ll be in the top 50 but not rising a ton … it’s not like he’s substantially different than what I said he was in January. He’ll move up due to graduations/injuries ahead of him.

Brian: I know you’ve been bearish on Dakota Hudson, but do you think his last couple months (significantly improved results from an abundance of ground balls, although a blah K/BB ratio) portend a secure role in the Cards rotation? Or is he more of a reliever long term?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a reliever.

Mark: Has Trent Grisham turned himself back into a prospect again? Still walks a lot and doesn’t strike out but now he actually has power. Still only 22 too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. Maybe a regular, definitely a big leaguer.

Concerned Citizen: I’m scared to death by Trump’s brinksmanship, this time with Iran. Please reassure me in any way you see fit.
Keith Law: I have no way to reassure you on this, sorry.

Jeff D.: Which Dodger catching prospect has the best career: Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya?
Keith Law: Ruiz, Smith, Cartaya, in that order, but all three are prospects.

Salty: Keith – I bailed on Archer a few seasons ago, but started DVR’ing this season. I know you bailed awhile back…did you ever get back in, and if so, how’s the season been?
Keith Law: I am through season 8. Still enjoyed it.

Liam: Cristian Pache has been great offensively in AA – more walks than all of last year, same homers, etc.

In your top 100, you mentioned he’s a 20-25 homer guy that never posts high OBPs, with the new MLB ball is something like .300/.355 with 30 homers realistic?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that. He’s also probably an 80 defender in center, though, so he’d still be a star.

Aubrey: Between Yordan Alvaraez’ performance in AAA & so far in MLB, have you seen/heard anything about him that makes you rethink his initial ranking as a prospect this season?
Keith Law: Nope. Too many fans seem to think that omitting a player from my top 100 means I think he’s terrible. That was never the case.

Joules: I don’t love Pache’s HR spray chart. You think he’ll be able to get into any oppo power?
Keith Law: Yes.

scrapper: Why is MacKenzie Gore still in high A ball? He’s dominated there all season.
Keith Law: I truly doubt he’s there much longer.

Mike: My company is having a pie baking contest at the company BBQ. What kind of pie should I go with?
Keith Law: Whatever fruit is in season at the time.

Mike: Do you think Hiura stays at 2B long term or when will he move off 2B? I don’t know how he’s looked in the minor leagues at 2B but he looked bad in his brief stint in the Show
Keith Law: He’s not great there, but I think he can be adequate at 2b and hit enough where they don’t care.

Doug: I know it was one start. But why did the Padres go with Maregvicious over Allen at the start of the year?
Keith Law: I wonder if Allen’s disaster start the last Sunday of spring training swayed them.

Jake: Jarren Duran has cooled in AA though the approach is still solid. Do you think he has the bat to be a regular?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: Has Riley shown you anything you didnt expect to date?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: How good is Alejandro Kirk’s bat? Can he stick behind the plate to be a regular or is he more of a utility player?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, potential regular back there. I’m definitely a fan of fat catchers.

Brian: On the Minor league salaries issue, my coworkers son was drafted in the 3rd round last year with a $500K signing bonus. What people don’t understand when they hear that is that is essentially all they will get unless they make it to the big leagues. He also left college a year early with no degree. He lives with his parents in the off-season, paid for his own personal trainer, and had to buy a lot of his own equipment (bats, gloves, etc.). It is border-line criminal how much these guys are exploited chasing a dream.
Keith Law: Yep, except it’s explicitly legal thanks to the Republican Party giving MLB a huge boondoggle in the 2017 tax bill.

JWR: Will you be making further comment about the Twitter flare up with Bauer? I know some of the details but I’m still not sure about the origin/history of events.
Keith Law: What comment have I made? Bauer decided it was appropriate to mock me for being 5’6″. I don’t think there’s anything further to say on it.

Ed: Is Zach Plesac a back of the rotation arm, or can he be more?
Keith Law: That’s what I think he is.

Paul: Mets starters haven’t been great but considering the team trots out the WORST defense in baseball – how much blame does a pitching coach deserve?
Keith Law: Can’t fire the owner or his son, so…

Miguel: When will Andres Muñoz be pitching in high leverage relief for the Padres?
Keith Law: I think sooner rather than later – they’re aware how fleeting an arm like this could be.

JV: How good is the culinary scene in Las Vegas? Also, could you live there, or would it be too much?
Keith Law: I couldn’t, not given the weather and the likely effects of climate change on the water supply.

David Tennant: What did you think of “Blink”? Is there a review of it?
Keith Law: The Doctor Who episode? Best I’ve seen through three seasons.

Randy: Re: draft punting….but that rule was designed to further help small market teams and keep fewer from tanking. It hasn’t really affected the game that way. Still have multiple teams and most of the NL east being non-competitive. Should draft rules be adjusted again in next deal?
Keith Law: Every time MLB has tried to change the draft rules to help small-market teams it hasn’t worked. I have no faith in further adjustments doing so.

eric: we have a passion fruit vine that is set to produce hundreds, if not more, passion fruit. what should we do with them?
Keith Law: It’s supposed to make a great jelly.

Michael: If MLB goes back to a more fair baseball and the numbers plummet, will there be a negative fan reaction?
Keith Law: Probably. But I fear long-term loss of fan interest with how few balls are put into play right now.

Jim: Juniper and Ivy (in San Diego) is truly wonderful. I live three miles away and finally went. Thanks for ranking it so high or I might not have gone.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Can’t wait to get back there in December.

romorr: I heard Sedlocks fastball is better now, and while it’s just A+, is he popping back up on anyones radar?
Keith Law: You may have heard this because I wrote about it a month ago.
Keith Law: Probably a reliever, but that’s better than his prognosis six months ago.

Jason: Latest thoughts on Nate Pearson? Rotation in his future or dynamic arm out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: Have to think rotation until he shows otherwise.

Mark: What’s the deal with Corbin Burnes? He looked like he should’ve been a breakout candidate this year (I guess Woodruff took all his good juju?) Is it better for him to work out his struggles in the pen in MLB or should he be starting in AAA?
Keith Law: Poor results in the short term especially on HR haven’t changed his long-term outlook.

Jake: I remember a couple of years ago you mentioned that Mario Feliciano’s bat was real. He’s making you look good in that regard. Can he catch, and is that bat good enough to play elsewhere?
Keith Law: He can catch.

TK: Did you ever watch/review Good Omens? I didn’t read the book but just finished watching it with my wife and found it hilarious and very entertaining.
Keith Law: Watched one episode so far and enjoyed it.

baldguy510: What’s the latest on Wander Franco? When do you see him in the majors and is it definitely as a SS?
Keith Law: #1 prospect in baseball. Shortstop.

Dustin: Does Heliot Ramos have Top 20 potential heading into 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Keith Law: Again, doesn’t make him a bad player. Just means there are plenty of guys ahead of him.

Craig: A family friend has a son who is a sophomore pitcher and has some acclaim (already committed to pitch for a SEC school, national rankings, etc.). At what point do MLB teams start seriously scouting HS players?
Keith Law: Summer before their senior year it really picks up.

Jim: What do you think of the proposed Tampa-Montreal “split season” floated? Jeff Passan had a pretty good recap. I think there are a lot of questions (contractual, logistic, tax, territorial, etc.), but it brings back thoughts of the Pittsburgh-Washington Homestead Grays (as well as the unfortunate 2004 Montreal-San Juan bit).
Keith Law: One of the worst fucking ideas i’ve heard in a long, long, long time.

eric: this is an actual question, and one, for the first time in my 35 years that i have fully considered it: are you ashamed being an american?
Keith Law: I am today. Our country, like any country, has a history of good and bad traits, of positive and negative impacts on the world. The last two years, however, have been overwhelmingly negative to the point that we are dragging the world backwards.

Dustin: Is there any reason to temper Twins fan’s excitement for Alex Kiriloff? Do you see him getting called up in September?
Keith Law: No reason. Don’t think they add him to the 40-man just yet.

Mark: What should the punishment be for someone who chooses not to vaccinate their kids? Disallow them from every holding a job or participating in society? Taxing them at 90 percent like you so hilariously (ha..ha) suggested?
Keith Law: The punishment should be that they can’t access public education. You want to send your kids to school? Fine. Get them vaccinated. Australia also disallows denier parents from getting certain social benefits. I’m good with that too. No idea what your strawman arguments are supposed to bring to the table.

Ronn: Just wanted to say thank you for always resisting. Me and my wife’s son love your work.
Keith Law: Our government is running concentration camps and arguing that we don’t need to provide the imprisoned children with soap or toothpaste. How can anyone stay silent and still sleep at night?

addoeh: This may be weird way to say this, but it seem the most efficient way of playing baseball (three true outcomes) isn’t the most profitable way (more fans) for the business side. The baseball side would have to change first, but with the long term local/national tv deals, will they change before it is too late?
Keith Law: I think that’s an accurate statement. Changing the ball has contributed. I’d like to see what the game looks like with the pre-2015 baseball … and then maybe we consider other structural changes. (I’ve also suggested raising the bottom of the strike zone, which drifted downward for years before creeping back up a little in ~2017.)

Liam: The Pirates seem to be done with Gregory Polanco (10 ABs in last 9 days) – Do you still have faith in him figuring it out?

I recall when he was a prospect, he had real star potential
Keith Law: I do. Maybe it happens somewhere else.

Snowy: How excited should I be for Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Very. Might be the Mets’ #1 prospect, if not right now, very soon.

Vaccinations: Since that silly question was just asked, I have one that hopefully isn’t as silly. I know you’ve touched on it before, but is my vaccinated child totally safe from these wackados that don’t vaccinate, and what is the important of the heard immunity?
Keith Law: No, unfortunately it doesn’t. No vaccination is 100% effective – just like no medical treatment is – and some vaccines, like pertussis, are only about 70% effective on their own and depend on herd immunity to give you total protection. So people who don’t vaccinate hurt everyone in their communities.

Nate: Do you have a link to the tweet whee bauer threatened Whitney McIntosh personally? I looked and couldn’t find it. Did he delete it?
Keith Law: He deleted it. 12up had it in a post. He threatened her job, not her person.

Devon: Klaw, love your work. Have you ever written a column identifying prospects that are outliers in your rankings compared to other reputably rankings in the industry. I would love to know what players you are comparatively high or low on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t, and wouldn’t, because I don’t want to give the impression that I’m somehow criticizing the work that experts like Mayo, Callis, and Longenhagen do for their respective sites. We can disagree for valid reasons and still respect the opinions of others who do the same kind of work and put in the right effort.

Chris: Is hanigers trade value done for the year since he won’t be healthy till the all Star break?
Keith Law: If he’s back on the 12th, after the ASB, he’ll have plenty of time to retore his full trade value. Teams know what he is; they just have to see he’s healthy.

Chris: How hypocritical is it for the umpires’ union to be tweeting about Machado and his suspension because it fits a public-opinion narrative that it’s trying to create while at the same time having its members refuse to be held accountable publicly for in-game actions?
Keith Law: It’s beyond hypocritical; it’s embarrassing. I don’t know if MLB did anything beyond the statement they issued criticizing the tweet, but I hope behind the scenes they made clear that the umpires should not be speaking that way about players. It’s hard to imagine Machado getting fair treatment from umpires the rest of the season.

Aiden: I FINALLY got a copy of Wingspan (without paying $100 on eBay). Do you have a favorite number of people to play it with?
Keith Law: Three is a bit smoother than four.

Joe: Did the Yankees make the right decision picking Gleyber over Eloy in 2016 (not that there is a wrong decision given how little they gave up)?
Keith Law: I had Gleyber over Eloy at the time and would still say so.

Joe: Keith, I was the one who asked you if it was time to worry about Matt Manning about a year ago after another one of his then-patented 6 BB outings. Anyway he went on to walk like 10 guys total the rest of the year. No question, just here to turn myself in.
Keith Law: Nah, he really changed in the second half last year. The Tigers really did great work giving him a proper delivery he could repeat, and one that gave him extension over his front side that made use of his 6’6″ frame. That’s the reason he threw more strikes and his CB got better.

Craig: With London banning sharp tip knives now, along with the numerous studies showing more (legal) guns = less crime, are you ready to walk back your calls for more gun control?
Keith Law: No, troll, because there are numerous studies showing more legal guns equals more gun deaths. Take this shit to 4chan.

Tom: Are tool grades similar to bell curve standard deviations? How much better is a 55 tool than a 50 hit tool?
Keith Law: They might be so in theory, but they are not in practice.

Mark: If you were Preller would you have rather spent 3 million in Hudson Head or a similar amount on Maurice Hampton?
Keith Law: Hampton for me. But it sounds like he just didn’t want to play, and after Kyler Murray, could you blame anyone for backing off a player who shows some preference for football?

Adam: Is it time to worry about Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Kolby Allard for Atlanta fans?
Keith Law: No on the first two. Allard just is what he is.

John: Just curious if you ever listen to the Joe Rogan podcast or have any opinion of him one way or the other? Thanks
Keith Law: I haven’t.

Ray: What fish do you like to grill, and what is a favorite preparation?
Keith Law: I don’t typically grill fish because it is so hard to keep it from sticking to the grates (and methods I’ve seen to prep the grates are so much work). I’d rather sear salmon and finish it in the oven, or just pan-sear trout.

John: I read someone compare Jack Leiter to Mike Leake with slightly better stuff. Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: Better CB than Leake. Leake was more of a kitchen-sink guy in college who could really sink the two-seamer.

Jimmy: Brennen Davis of the Cubs, SSS or potential breakout?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. It’s a tiny sample, but he’s also a great athlete and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he blew up this summer.

Marco: I imagine if I met you in person you would be extremely similar to Captain Raymond Holt off of Brooklyn Nine-Nine if you’ve ever seen it.
Keith Law: I love that show, but he’s deadpan and rarely laughs or smiles. I’m the opposite, at least in the company of people I know.

eric: it seems that basically every gop representative and senator is brainwashed. like, they literally were asking about hilary’s emails in yesterday’s hearing about the russian interference in the elections. are they all bad-faith actors or evil or …
Keith Law: And our only recourse is to vote other people in, whether it’s Democrats, or the few Republicans who have shown independent thinking and may still represent the views of center-right voters.

Anchen: Do you think teams will continue to move toward 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster? Or even more? Or does it make sense to go back to 12 at all?
Keith Law: I think the 13-man pitching staff is here to stay. I hate it, but the solution is probably another bench spot.
Keith Law: Sorry, another roster spot to accommodate another bench spot – so I’m saying a 26-man roster with a cap on 13 pitchers.

Brian: Regarding Rocker getting abused a few weeks ago, do teams factor in the past history of college managers when ranking pitchers?
Keith Law: They factor the use of specific pitchers more than the history of coaches. I do know that teams steered away from pitchers from coaches/schools with severe histories of abusing pitchers, like Graham at Rice.

Chris: Regarding grilling fish, America’s Test Kitchen recommends mixing honey (for browning) with mayo (to prevent sticking), neither of which you can taste.
Keith Law: You wouldn’t taste honey? That seems unlikely.

John: What does it say about MLB teams that players have to buy equipment like Rapsodo etc. on their own in the offseason to try and get better? Why wouldn’t they provide them with all available resources to make their org. better? Or am I missing something?
Keith Law: Some do, I think. is that really universal?

John: What is meant by a “prep” player? Is it used interchangeably with high school?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aubrey: I wasn’t saying you thought Alvarez was terrible, I just wondered if your opinion of him was higher than it was before the season. If so, I know sample size is small, so maybe scouting wise you saw something you liked more.
Keith Law: Nope, same guy, all bat, not a great long-term projection to the body, huge power.
Keith Law: I can’t tell who’s just asking about a player versus who’s saying nyah nyah nyah.

Kevin: Could Tatis be Mike Trout good?
Keith Law: As much as I’d enjoy that, I’m not saying any player is going to be Mike Trout good. That’s a level of good beyond any good I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks as always for your questions. I should be back for another chat next Thursday or Friday depending on game schedules. Also, I have a talk & book signing on July 8th at the Hudson Library & Historical Society just outside Cleveland. I hope to see some of you there!

My recap of day one of the draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Do what I want, cause I can. Klawchat.

Max G.: Are the Astros being too smart for their own good?
Keith Law: Eh, that’s more judgmental than I’d like to be. I think they’ve chosen a philosophy of drafting that won’t work in the long run. If that’s true, they’ll realize it and change course.

Stanislav: Do you think that the Yankees will take a run at Jack Leiter, or that he’s dead set on Vandy?
Keith Law: Seems like that ship has sailed.

Bill G: Do you see Jarren Duran as a viable replacement for JBJ in the Boston OF? Thanks!
Keith Law: Too soon to say that. He’s a legit prospect, though.

Bob Pollard: What are your thoughts on the Cubs #1 pick, not so much his ability but was he selected in the appropriate spot?
Keith Law: I had him ranked 32nd in the class, and they took him 27th.

List-O-Mania!: On the spectrum of wildly overdrafted to hidden gem, where do you see Korey Lee ultimately falling? Might the Astros be thinking that his bat will play, and their emphasis on framing will get him far enough up the catching curve to stick there?
Keith Law: I think it’s a real reach. Wild overdraft.

alb2tead34: Ryan Garcia seemed like a guy with a lot of late helium. Was he a reach for the Rangers at 50, or is the high spin rate FB what teams are looking for now?
Keith Law: Not a reach. Taking a guy at 50 who wasn’t on the top 100 might be, but this wasn’t. Teams do love high spin rate FB. Also, the Rangers need pitching, and Garcia was one of the better college starters available at that pick.

Paul: If the Mets can sign their top three picks then I think they have had a great draft. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree. I do not believe they took Allen without knowing what it would cost to sign him. They’ve followed him up with two college seniors who’ll probably sign for $10K or something similar so they can pay Allen what he wants.
Keith Law: The Astros just took their first guy from my top 100 – Hunter Brown, a Division 2 starter who’s been up to 98 with an average slider. Good pick in that spot, but funny that that’s probably the highest-ranked guy they’ll take.

Aaron C.: You’ve called this the “worst pitching draft” in your 18 years involved with it. So, what year got dethroned, sir?
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one; this is substantially worse than any I can remember. The 2006 draft felt that way at the time, but produced Kershaw and Lincecum.
Keith Law: Sorry, 2006 felt like a weak pitching draft, not as weak as this year’s though.

Adam D.: In your opinion, are Hunter Bishop’s swing and miss issues fixable? And based on that, how likely is he to reach his ceiling? Thanks for all the hard work!
Keith Law: Yes. I think guys who show this kind of progress in tightening their plate discipline are prime candidates to continue to improve. That’s the difference between Joey Gallo and Seuly Matias.

Simon: At what round of the draft do you usually first ask yourself, “Who?”
Keith Law: Until they said “a catcher from the University of California” I blanked on Lee. Once the college seniors start in round 4 I’m not even expecting to know half the names.

Tom: The Mariners have a 18 year old DH in AAA named Robert Perez who hasn’t played above the DSL. He’s hitting okay, but it seems like an absurd jump for someone without much hype. What is going on there? Are they trying to juice his value by juking the stats on age-relative-to-league models? Is he a sleeper superprospect?
Keith Law: No, just a temporary assignment. Certainly great to see that he’s not totally overwhelmed by the jump, though. I think most guys would be.

mibreli: How far outside your top 100 was Korey Lee? Also, is there any reason to believe that this year’s collective crop of catchers drafted in the first round can buck the historical trend of catchers drafted in the first round not panning out?
Keith Law: He wasn’t even a remote consideration; I don’t keep ranking guys privately but I would comfortably say he wasn’t in the next 50.

Simon: Do you ever play legacy type games, like Gloomhaven?
Keith Law: I play legacy games like Charterstone and Pandemic, but not RPGs like Gloomhaven.

Nate: Keith, it is very strange to see the White Sox drafting players high up on your board. Does this indicate a change in strategy or are you secretly advising Rick and Nick?
Keith Law: Definitely not advising them, and I don’t think they need my help either. Really strong draft for them so far.

G: Are the Pirates first two picks (Priester and Siani) expected to go over slot, or are all of their seeming under-slot selections of day 2 thus far saving up for 10th round and after guys?
Keith Law: Maybe both. I think Siani is over slot for sure.

Bret: I know you’re high on Alek Manoah. What is it that, you hope, will separate him from the other big, large SPs that haven’t reached their perceived potential?
Keith Law: Not sure which guys you might mean. Manoah’s well put together; that weight isn’t fat or just heft. His delivery works, he throws strikes, he has four pitches.

Sandy Eggo: Any signability concerns with Hudson Head? Or should the pick of Mears help with $$ a little bit for the Padres
Keith Law: Head will be over slot but 99% of the time teams do not draft players without knowing what it will cost to sign them and making sure they have that pool space. I doubt there have been more than a dozen players taken in the top ten rounds since the new system went into effect who went unsigned just because of money.

Dave: I’ve read that Tyler Baum’s stuff ticked up a few notches right before the draft? Did you hear that and what do you think about him?
Keith Law: That’s not right – what he did do late was hold the stuff deeper into games. I saw him at the ACC where he was still hitting 94-95 at the end of his outing, when earlier in the year he’d done so just for an inning or two up top.

Clay, Rutherford, NJ: Are the Cubs looking for 2019 bullpen help through the draft?
Keith Law: I believe they’re looking for 2020 bullpen help.

RJS: I’m sensing a theme among the Cubs picks so far, and I can’t say I’m disappointed. Fair to suggest they’ll try most of the pitchers taken through 5th round as starters or might McAvene stay in the pen and try to move up quickly that way? Thanks for the chats, KLaw.
Keith Law: McAvene has three pitches to start, but that does change his time frame and they may choose to move him faster as a reliever.

Dave: How should college baseball deal with pitcher overuse? Pitch counts? Appearance caps? Because we see yet more gross overuse again this postseason.
Keith Law: MLB should pull any support for college baseball until the NCAA agrees to abide by PitchSmart guidelines, including changing the draft rules to make players eligible at any time (after their freshman or sophomore years) unless the NCAA relents. MLB has all the leverage here.

Jeff: Do you think Soph elig Gabe Holt still goes today or is he going back to school?
Keith Law: I wonder if he told teams he didn’t want to sign. Obviously a top five rounds talent.

Sean: Yankees do a poor job drafting in these early rounds. Yes or no?
Keith Law: No. Liked the Sikkema pick a lot.

Eric: what power grade does Bleday have? can it transfer to MLB?
Keith Law: It’s plus and it will translate. He has exceptional hand/wrist strength.

Bradley: Love the James Beard pick for the White Sox on name alone. Outcome likely to be Terrance Gore? Billy Hamilton? Hopefully more?
Keith Law: Same org that turned Micker Adolfo from a workout phenom into an actual hitter. I give them a good chance here.

Greg: You seemed to like the Blue Jays’ first couple of picks. Does the addition of Robertson (who you ranked better than his draft position) make it a very successful first few picks?
Keith Law: Yep. Really like it so far.

Mike : Braves drafting looks off on paper. Is that your assessment? Have you heard anything on it so far?
Keith Law: Philip is the one pick i just do not understand. Not a day one guy, probably not a top three rounds guy.

JG: Did the Twins reach on Kavaco or is the potential worth the risk?
Keith Law: Both could be true, I think. There is plenty of potential there. I think there’s more hit tool risk than they do, obviously.

Brian: So are the Mets first 3 picks worth senior signs in rounds 4-10?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: Literally got the best HS pitching prospect in the draft – my rankings and MLB’s agree. Fangraphs had him behind Priester and I don’t have any dispute with that.

Rob : I ummm don’t understand the Padres draft after the first round. Regardless of the quality of their assessment it feel like they’re reaching for players they could’ve gotten later. thoughts?
Keith Law: I disagree. I think they may have gone under for Driscoll to help pay for Head.
Keith Law: #phrasing

Nate: When you say you feel like the Astros have chosen a draft philosophy you don’t think will work in the long run…is that tied into the big overhaul they’ve had with their scouting department in recent years?
Keith Law: You mean the elimination of their scouting department?

Simon: I know you quit beef, what are your thoughts on dairy milk alternatives? My infant son is allergic to dairy and soy, and we’ve been researching oat milk
Keith Law: Oat milk is extremely sweet, which has its pros and cons. I think cashew milk is my favorite all-purpose alternative, although it’s expensive (and should be).

Andy: Any more details on what caused teams to take Espino off their boards? Was this reflected in your rankings?
Keith Law: It was not reflected in my rankings because I heard it less than 24 hours before the draft. I would have moved him *way* down.

Chris: How fast can Baty move? Can he move up the ranks faster bc he’s already 19.5 or doesn’t matter?
Keith Law: I believe he can finish next year in high-A – that he’s strong enough and advanced enough as a hitter to do so. That would obviate the age concern.

Sean: I can’t find much, but some articles are suggesting that Conor Grammes (Xavier in Ohio) is hitting 98-100 MPH as a starting pitcher, sitting 94-97. How accurate is that?
Keith Law: He absolutely hit 100 mph in Arizona in February, but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn when he’s throwing that hard.

Kedelbro: Does Will Holland have any shot to get his swing back?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin: The Red Sox took Noah Song in the 4th round today. He’s from Navy with a 2 year commitment still. Is this just another guy who will get a 10k bonus?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a $10K guy. The Red Sox must believe he’s going to be allowed to pitch, though, which isn’t really the history with Navy players.

Andrew Please: Dodgers seem to love drafting guys who strike out less than they walk. Is that something that is a bit overrated? If not, why aren’t other teams as interested in it?
Keith Law: Everyone’s interested in it, but many players who strike out less than they walk in college either 1) have no other real tools or 2) get there through passivity, because so few college pitchers can actually throw strikes consistently.

Sean: Anthony Volpe seems like he’s another SS the Yankees overdrafted. See; Cito Culver. Kyler Holder.
Keith Law: The Culver comp is the one that would scare me. The Yankees loved Culver’s makeup, and Volpe’s best tool appears to be his makeup (the real stuff – work ethic, instincts, etc.).

Dustin: Thanks for not dodging my abortion questions yesterday. Curious to know how you can justify your position that a child in the womb is not a human life? Science says it is. It’s life is dependent on another person, but so are all born children and many elderly.
Keith Law: You are either purposely misrepresenting the science, or refusing to understand it. That is a false analogy of epic proportions.

Jared: No question, just a comment that you should Periscope more often when you have the time. REALLY enjoyed last night’s and the ability to get so many questions answered.
Keith Law: Thank you, I’m glad you enjoyed it, but sorry I was so distracted by the broadcast. I tried to get the draft show on my iPad but MLB seemed to have that blocked (or I just couldn’t figure it out in time). That might have made it smoother.

Dave: I just realized today that the Astros whiffed on both Aiken and Appell and they still have this much talent. Still hard to belive that two 1/1s just never made it.
Keith Law: Well, Aiken became Bregman, so they really whiffed on just one, Appel, on whom the entire industry whiffed.

JR: Quintana a legitament power threat?
Keith Law: No. Better as a high-average/all-fields guy.

James: I’m curious, how do teams determine who are guys they can sign for under slot deals?
Keith Law: It’s a really weird, complex process where they ask the players how much money they want.

Benny from Boston: Jordan Groshans’ older brother Jaxx to Boston. Any family resemblance on the diamond?
Keith Law: No. Saw Jaxx in February, picked in the right spot, but he’s not Jordan (who has come out of the gate *really* strong).

Rob K: IDK, man. Trusting the Mets to do something rational when 1. their GM has no draft room experience and 2. they’re the Mets feels like a bad bet.
Keith Law: Unfair. Seems like the GM has let their amateur scouting department do their thing – and given that group’s track record, that’s the right move. Kelenic, Dunn, Alonso, Smith, Kay, Peterson, Vientos, Woods-Richardson, Szapucki – Tanous/Tremuta have drafted those guys.

mark: who’s has better speed, Xavier Edwards or CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: Abrams by quite a bit.

Brett: Seems like the twins were going for high upside high risk guys, Would you make Wallner a SP or RF?
Keith Law: He doesn’t want to pitch.

Max G.: Re: Astros draft philosophy; How would you define it?
Keith Law: 10011100101000100111001 11010001 1111010011101110100101001010.

Drew: What can we expect out of Haseley? Too soon for the call up?
Keith Law: I’m not buying this ‘breakout.’
Keith Law: Swing was awful when I saw him last year.

Tom Y: Do you think the yankees took Volpe with the idea that if he doesnt sign, its not the end of the word to have two picks and extra slot money in a better draft next year?
Keith Law: No. Teams don’t do that.

Matt: What did you think of Will Holland falling as far as he did?
Keith Law: I think Auburn bears some blame for this. Good value in that round though.

Brendan: What the hell are the Pirates doing? Seems like Gorski was a significant overdraft and they don’t have any track record of helping guys with swing and miss problems (e.g. Casey Hughston and Dylan Busby). Then today they take middling college relievers at 4 and 5. Talk some sense into me, please.
Keith Law: I think their draft was focused on the top two guys, who both were high-ceiling high school kids who have more polish than your typical upside plays.

Tom: Is Song signable for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Are you asking if he’ll sign for a … never mind.

BigDaddeh: Are we waiting until the draft is over to get a Keuchel or Kimbrel signing?
Keith Law: No, they could sign now.

Matt: Where would Noah Song be on your top 100 if not for his two year navy commitment? First round talent being floated around by Red Sox twitter is too aggressive, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely not a first round talent. Seems like fan talk.

Mas: Hair notwithstanding, your mock drafts put Mel Kiper to shame. Your top 7 picks were all spot on. Kudos, draft expert!
Keith Law: Still annoyed I switched Texas from Jung to Manoah. I may have put too much of my own beliefs (Manoah was clearly the better pick) into that one.

Gus: Is there anything stopping a player that is playing in the CWS from quitting his team to go play for the team that drafted him? Therefor saving himself from getting injured or overused by his college manager who no longer cares about him after the CWS
Keith Law: Nothing, and I wish a player would do it.

BigDaddeh: 1% chance of Vaughn raking in AA this year and getting the call to replace Alonso for the Sox playoff push?
Keith Law: No.

nelson: there is so much information online these days about mlb prospects. it’s hard to tell what is informed and what is not. any tips?
Keith Law: The people who are paid to do this work full-time are reliable, in my opinion. Setting myself aside, the guys at MLB and Fangraphs and Baseball America are really the only sources I read and trust. I know those guys personally and while we differ in approach, we all take our responsibilities seriously and work hard to provide good, informed opinions and information.

Guest: Is jahmai Jones still a prospect? 2 straight years of struggles.
Keith Law: Yes, of course he’s still a prospect. He’s only 21.
Keith Law: He’s younger than Kody Hoese and just a few months older than Langeliers, Busch, Davidson, and Shewmake, but Jones is in AA.

Brian: When do you expect to start to get questions on whether or not a first round pick will sign? Father’s Day week? 4th of July week? Today? Yesterday?
Keith Law: Today. And I will pretty much ignore them all after this chat because nearly all drafted players in rounds 1-10 sign unless they flunk their postdraft physicals.

Wade: Would a team draft me in the first 10 rounds if I would sign for $1 so they could have $9,999 extra towards their bonus pool over a college senior or is the body/actual roster spot worth more than the money at that value?
Keith Law: MLB would void it and penalize the team.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Blue Jays drafting Canadian talent?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown is legit. No issue taking him in that spot – he’s a real prospect and that wasn’t homerism (hoserism?).

JG: Is 3/$42 million too much for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I’d give him 2/$30 million rather than the third year.

Todd: Your thoughts on the transition from aluminum to wood bats? Fiction or truth?
Keith Law: Is what fiction or truth?

BigDaddeh: Louisville guy pitching 30 pitches after throwing 95 days earlier. How bad?
Keith Law: Bad. Could have been much worse, though.

Beetlejuice: Reds with a low risk college arm to start then 3 projectable bats after that. Like what they’re doing thus far?
Keith Law: Loved it.

Tim: Where do you see Drake Fellows going? He has out pitched several of the other SEC arms off the board already
Keith Law: “Outpitched” doesn’t mean anything at all. Anyway, Fellowes went in the 6th after you submitted this.

Andy: Houston could have gotten their catcher with their second pick right? There’s no one you heard on the guy even after the first round right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Nate: Did callihan’s lack of position hurt him more than you thought it would?
Keith Law: I think so, although I don’t know if he floated a big bonus demand.

Sean: The Dbacks seem to be drafting “short” hitters the past two years: Alek Thomas last year and Corbin Carroll and Glenallen Hill Jr. this year. Are they exploiting an inefficiency in the market?
Keith Law: Seems like it. Short but strong hands/wrists/forearms is good. Short and slight is not.

Aaron C.: Can you provide some general examples of draftees who had “questions about their hit tool” but figured it out in pro ball?
Keith Law: Matt Chapman is the most obvious contemporary example.

Gaga: What were your thoughts on Kendall Williams?
Keith Law: All my thoughts on day one guys are in the ESPN post linked above. I’ll have team by team recaps up Thursday and Friday.

John: Is Keoni Cavaco an under slot pick? Seems like he got picked higher than he was on your and your competitors boards.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – he had other suitors in the teens.

Paul: When trying to rank Song, how do you factor in his Navy commitment? 4th round risk worth taking for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes 4th round is fine. Just object to people claiming he’s some secret first round talent.

Uli Jon: I know this is a draft chat, so understand if you don’t get to this. But looking for a 2 player game for long airplane flights this summer. Low to moderate with not too many pieces. My family has patience for Azul and Love Letters, something like that but plays better with two.
Keith Law: Jaipur, Lost Cities, Battle Line. Patchwork is great but don’t think you could play it on two tray tables.

Xander: Sox draft two SS after signing me to a long-term deal. Am I worried, or are they position-switch candidates?
Keith Law: These two things are not related in the least. You draft the best players.
Keith Law: Also, Cam Cannon isn’t a shortstop.

Pat: If 2018 draft was re-done today, would Mize still be 1-1? Safe to say Kelenic would be 2nd pick?
Keith Law: He might be … but several first rounders from last year are off to great pro starts. Bohm, Groshans, G Rodriguez, Gilbert.

Mark: Regarding you comment on Baty in yesterday’s chat. Please tell me you are aware of the epidemic that is the amount of parents holding their student-athletes back to repeat a grade strictly for athletic reasons? Not saying that is the case here, but if he repeated 7th or 8th grade then that would be why.
Keith Law: I am, but have no idea if that was the case for Baty, and I said on Twitter to someone asking that it’s really none of our business *why* he’s 19.5 at graduation.

Bob: Preller has taken a pitcher with the 1st pick every year as the Padres GM, thought for sure he’d do it again, especially with Lodolo on the board.
Keith Law: No, I knew they were taking one of the big 6 bats.
Keith Law: Right move in that spot.

BigDaddeh: Who are some big names to watch in the 11th round once teams can start taking some more long shots?
Keith Law: I think someone will take Leiter, Hampton, Stewart, etc. Just secure their rights in case they change their minds.

John: I hear you on the PitchSmart guidelines, but baseball also has some pretty vocal adherents (Verlander, Bauer) to a school of thought that rejects those guidelines.
Keith Law: Yeah those guys don’t actually run the league.

Fran: Will Bryson Stott stay at SS or move to 3B?
Keith Law: No doubt SS for me.

Andrew: Will Joe Palumbo make the mid season top 100 now that he is proving it on his comeback from TJ?
Keith Law: The healthy guys from my “just missed” list are probably all on the top 100 now … just not Dunning or Graterol, since they’re hurt.

Andy: I know it’s dead horse beating, but I wonder if the Mets wouldn’t be better served NOT spending 160 AAA ABs, so far this year, on a guy who can’t be a serviceable MLB OF.
Keith Law: You’d think so, and yet, here we are.

Alan: How much stock do you put on pedigree? Seems like having family who played in MLB boosts you up a few rounds.
Keith Law: It helps with some teams. I don’t think it makes a prospect better, but it’s more interesting for me as a writer.

mc90: If we can mix in board game questions, any suggestions on good 2 player games?
Keith Law: See above but if you don’t have a space limitation 7 Wonders Duel is pretty incredible.

Seth: Any strong opinions on the Michigan trio that got drafted in the first few rounds? It’s nice to see the alma mater have some baseball success
Keith Law: Couple of potential back-end starters there in Henry and Kaufffffmannnn.

Brad: Plesac a future #2? He looks really good
Keith Law: He’s good but I think the ceiling is below that.

Brian: RE: Tom Y’s question about Volpe, what stops a team from intentionally not signing a 1st round pick to be able to use that pick the next year?
Keith Law: The player would file a grievance and MLB would not grant the compensatory pick. Too many fans think they can outsmart the system as if teams and the league haven’t already thought about all of this.

Welch: I saw on the MLB Top 200 Draft Prospects article that they only have 1 kid from the state of Oklahoma. As a current resident, do you know who that is?
Keith Law: Bryce Osmond was the only Oklahoma kid on my top 100. Probably him.
Keith Law: Also, he’s the only missing Osmond sibling to make my list.
Keith Law: Man, someone has to play “One Bad Apple” as his walkup music.

Shaughn: With a prospect like Brooks Lee still on the board – do we assume he has a strong commitment or that the industry doesn’t have the same perceived value?
Keith Law: He’s made it clear he’s going to school to play for his dad.
Keith Law: Ask him how that worked out for Kyle Serrano.

LGM: Do any of these Mets senior signers stand out to you at all?
Keith Law: No. Senior signs are almost always org guys.

Philip: Long-time reader and major fan of your analysis. Quick question and not draft related, but if a team used older catchers in a tandem, let’s say 81 games each, would that create a better or similar outcome than paying an elite catcher? I’d think two catchers in their 30s could be refreshed from a lighter work load (thinking of Flowers and McCann), and be significantly cheaper than a Realmuto type of catcher.
Keith Law: Probably depends on the players. Some guys would be better with the days off, most wouldn’t, I think.

Sandy Eggo: Can we get a #FreeLuisUrias in the chat to appease #PadresTwitter
Keith Law: I want to be the president of that club.

John: If you were advising a teenager who is equally talented as a pitcher and as a position player, which would you tell him to focus on? Or would you try to have him go 2-way?
Keith Law: Two variables. What does he want to do, and what do teams value more highly? If the world says you’re a pitcher, then get on the mound, son.

Aaron C.: MLB Network’s draft coverage: all the talking! occasionally some draft picks!
Keith Law: I knew time dilation was real, but never experienced it until MLB Network took eleven minutes to get through a five-minute break.

Bill: Fiction: aluminum bats cannot transition to wood.
Keith Law: Well, no, that would be alchemy.

The Internet: WHY ISN’T YOUR 2020 MOCK DRAFT AVAILABLE YET?!!?!?!?!?!
Keith Law: Stop that.

Henry: Keith, just want to say thank you for all of the incredible amount you invested in the draft, including the late night ESPN team post which was excellent and informative.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I worked hard (and late) to make that a longer post this year, so fans of every team had something to read.

Brian: (insert joke about Keith having a short bias)
Keith Law: My bias is not short. It’s like a long, sharp sword.

Brian: Last week you didn’t seem to disagree with a guy who said clutch-ness isn’t a thing. But doesn’t that go against what psychology teaches us? Some people perform better under the most intense pressure than do others. Wouldn’t this apply to sports just like it does medicine, politics, law, etc?
Keith Law: I go with evidence. The evidence says that MLB players do not perform significantly differently in “clutch” situations. It is possible or even likely that players who wilt in those situations never reach the majors, since they face pressure when they’re being scouted and all the way up the minors. But there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter” in the majors, and if you think there is, well, come correct with some facts.

Chris: Just noticed that Hunter Bishop is still just 20y/o. Won’t turn 21 for 3 weeks. Does the fact that he played the entire year at 20 help his projection like Baty’s age hurt him?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tim : I am no scout but even to this amateur eye, Rutledge has one of the shortest arm deliveries I can recall ever seeing. Is this something to be concentrated about?
Keith Law: Teams were concerned about his short arm swing and lack of athleticism. On the other hand, he might have a 7 fastball and 7 slider.

Michael: How does Manoah compare to Mize?
Keith Law: I’m very high on Manoah but Mize is a potential #1 starter with two swing and miss pitches and plus command.
Keith Law: Mize is the best RHP prospect in the minors right now.

Bill: Is there anything to Kevin Newman’s improvement? I know you were high on him out of the draft
Keith Law: I’m chalking it up to the teamwide improvements from hitters now that they changed coaches & approach – don’t think they’re so keen on contact/going the other way as they were in years past.

Joe: On MLB radio today I heard an analyst mention that because of advanced training techniques, more young players will make it to the big leagues sooner. Basically, that much of the training that used to be done in the minors is now being done in high school and college. I was curious to hear your take on this.
Keith Law: False.

Howey: Last night Harold Reynolds said that Jackson Rutledge’s short arm action was probably fine because “catchers throw like that and who’s heard of a catcher getting Tommy John?” I’m still getting over how wrong that statement is
Keith Law: I heard half of that sentence and thought I’d misunderstood the context.
Keith Law: I mean, catchers do have Tommy John, not even that infrequently.

Jeff: Best guess for MLB ETA for Luis Robert?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be up this year. Why not? If he bumps to AAA, keeps hitting, don’t you call him up and see if he can make the 2020 OD roster? I would.
Keith Law: OK, time to start those recaps and maybe walk outside for a minute. I have some personal travel next week and may not chat at all, but I’ll shoot for a Periscope tomorrow during day 3. Recaps go up Thursday and Friday, one league each day, and I’ll look at the new team #1 prospects in a piece next week as well. Thank you as always for all of your questions and the kind words on my draft content this week!

Happy draft day! My latest mock is up for ESPN+ subscribers and I’m updating it throughout the day.

Keith Law: Play to get paid. It’s Klawchat.

PhillyJake: If the Pirates do indeed take Langeliers, will he make it to the majors before Cervelli’s next concussion? Seriously Cervelli should retire for his health. What is Langeliers’ guestimated arrival date?
Keith Law: I’d guess two years out. Defense is ready now. Still questions on the hit tool, but I think it’s reasonable to think he won’t race through the minors.

addoeh: Happy Klaw-smas! That would make late January’s prospect ranking release Klaw-nukah (because it is 8 days).
Keith Law: Can it be Klaw-purim, so then i get cookies?

Bill G: Thanks for all the work you do regarding the draft. How far would Adley drop if he was a 1B instead of a catcher? The bat still plays? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bat plays but he’s no longer 1-1; behind Vaughn and Bleday at least.

Frank Viola: I’m always curious where top international guys would slot in the draft, playing off of that thought – where would you *hypothetically* slot a player like Jasson Dominguez if int. players were draft eligible?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. He’s 15 (maybe he turned 16 already) and you can’t compare him apples to apples to draft prospects. Unless you’re talking an Ohtani type, there’s no way the top J2 kid in the typical class would even be a first rounder when stacked up against kids who are 17-18 (HS) or 21 (college).
Keith Law: And Dominguez isn’t even a Vlad Jr or Wander Franco.

duhamell: Mason Janvrin at the University of Central Missouri (DII) is having a great season. Hearing lots of rumors here in Warrensburg, but is there any buzz on him?
Keith Law: Zero. D2 or lower bats have an enormous hill to climb to be taken seriously. There’s a kid at Shepherd University (also D2) named Brenton Doyle who got some early buzz because he also has tools, but his entire team is hitting .338/.434/.574.

alex: Could A. Vaughan play 3B credibly (Elias allegedly saw him take grounders there) if taken by the Os ? He apparently has a decent arm (he pitched in his freshman or sophomore year). Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote that the O’s looked at him at 3b. I doubt he can do it but I think it’s worth exploring.

J.P.: Chances Toglia’s name goes off the board in the first? If not, what’s his floor?
Keith Law: Very close to 0% chance.

Ben: Is Misner this draft’s biggest wildcard? How confident are you in his tools?
Keith Law: Bigger wildcards for me are kids like Leiter, Volpe, etc., who may be completely unsignable.

Larry: Are the Indians buyers, sellers or (more or less) “holders” in 2019? I still think they have a shot at a playoff spot, but certainly not bet the house on it.
Keith Law: Should be buyers, but they should have been buyers this winter and weren’t.

Ben: It’s Draft Day — 2020. Who are the top five names to go off the board?
Keith Law: No idea. Let’s survive this year first.

Niel: What is driving the Rangers’ move away from their previous tool-centric draft approach?
Keith Law: I speculated that they may be unhappy with some recent results from toolsy but raw picks high in the draft.

Jim: Not draft related, but I’m curious why there are no southpaw side-armers?
Keith Law: Of course there are.

Spencer: Have you had a chance to scout any of the international players that may be signing this summer? Who’s the cream of the crop?
Keith Law: I don’t cover that market. Jesse Sanchez at MLB does a tremendous job.

Jim: Predict for us – how many Day One guys won’t sign?
Keith Law: Figure two or three will fail their post-draft physicals. Last year we had two first rounders decline to sign for financial reasons – Ginn and McClain – but I think teams will be more conservative in the first round as a result.

Jim: Which of the Siani’s are you higher on? Does Sammy go off the board tonight?
Keith Law: Higher on Sammy, but I hear he may want first-round money, so that could push him to day two.

Mark: How is Brett Baty already 19.5 but still in high school?
Keith Law: I don’t know the specifics, but a kid could have to repeat a year for academic or medical reasons, or perhaps have been enrolled a year later for kindergarten because the parents were concerned he wasn’t ready.

Mark: If Baltimore does not take Rutchman or Witt, who would KC pick? Is there any way in hell Rutchman could fall to the Pads?
Keith Law: I think they’d take Rutschman. They don’t take Vaughn at 2; Bleday is option C, although when you pick 2 option C is sort of silly. There is no way Rutschman gets to the Padres.

Mark: Do you think the Pads could take Lodolo at 6 or are they going to take one of the top 6 hitters?
Keith Law: I’m still betting they take one of the big six.

Red: Just read Smart Baseball, I enjoyed thoroughly enjoyed your book. I imagine a lot of what MLB teams draft on is raw ability. But in your experience, do you find that clubs will split hairs and analyze college/high school players with advanced stats as well? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Most clubs do some of both; the difference is in the balance between the two.

JAS: Is it possible that Espino gets to Houston, and they manage to harness his stuff and improve his mechanics and pitch selection to turn him into the best pitcher in this draft when we look back in 5 years?
Keith Law: It’s possible he gets to Houston, likely they pass on him, and I’d say basically no chance he ends up the best pitcher from this draft.

matt: Bishop/Kirby/Rutledge all feel like pretty good scenarios for the Phillies, and is the sense you’re getting that at least one will fall to them? Not that they would absolutely take one.
Keith Law: I will revise the mock after we’re done here, but they’re not taking Bishop (or the other two). I do think the Phils will get their choice of some pretty good options … Baty, Jung, Langeliers, Carroll if he slips, Wilson. I believe they like Henderson, but I’m lighter on him than the industry, I guess.

BigDaddeh: How much money do you think Shea Langeliers made yesterday?
Keith Law: None.

bombas: do you see the twins cutting a deal under slot?
Keith Law: I know they’ve considered it (why not?) but I think they go slot for Stott or Langeliers.

Esteban: Is Jack Leiter a first rounder if he was 100% certain to sign slot?
Keith Law: IMO, hell yes.

Darryl: How early do you think LHP Miller from Stanford goes? Anyone else likely to be drafted in the early rounds from the Farm?
Keith Law: Miller today. Second round. Others from Stanford are below that.

Adam: Has MLB considered moving the draft until after the college postseason? Not necessarily for additional evaluation (I believe you’ve mentioned the post season and CWS is not the best for that), but to give teams a chance to see what pitchers get abused during this period. Maybe if enough pitchers drop in draft position as a result, colleges, or at least the players, would take notice.
Keith Law: They have; the tradeoff is that it screws up all of short-season baseball, plus the summer leagues when teams scout for next year.

Joe: Pick outside the top ten you feel most confident about?
Keith Law: Hm. 11, 12, 17, 23, 24 … but any or all of those could be thrown off by a player slipping/someone up top cutting an under-slot deal.

Sean: How does the top 5 of this draft compare to recent years?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little weaker.

Adam: Knowing what we know now about Carter Stewart do the Braves have a chance to get a comparable talent?
Keith Law: If they take Carroll, as I had in my mock (if Manoah goes 8, Atlanta would choose between Carroll and Langeliers), they’re getting the #4 player on my board. Stewart, pre-injury etc., was my #2 player. So it’s not too far off.

Andrew V: Hey Keith, love all the work you do around draft time. What caused Bishop to fall a few spots from earlier mocks?
Keith Law: Teams concerned about in-conference performance and a decline in his throwing the last few weeks.

fact or fiction?: I saw Abrams mocked at #10 to the Giants, what are the chances he falls that far?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they’d consider him at all, but he could slip to the teens if the Padres don’t take him (which presumes 1-5 are chalk).

Bill: Hi Keith, thanks as always for the chats. They are my favorite shirking activity each week. Out of curiosity during your time in Toronto, did you have any role to play during the actual draft or were all picks and decision making up to the scouting directors, GM or other management at that point?
Keith Law: I was in the discussions every year but I never made any picks or really any decisions at all. Those were up to Ricciardi and Buckley/Lalonde (the scouting directors).

Jerome: Will you be doing a live video of the draft like last year?
Keith Law: Yes so enough of you asked for it that I’ll do a live Periscope chat (on twitter) starting at 7.

Jim: Best name in the draft?
Keith Law: That has to be Mississippi prep outfielder James Beard. They named a whole award after him!

Daniel: After you ranked him in the top 80, do you know of any teams in on Glenallen Hill Jr. tonight or do you expect him to fall to day 2?
Keith Law: He’s on the 2nd/3rd round bubble.

Ben: Do you think Miami has a lot more variability in what they do at 4 than most people are projecting? They’ve obviously shown a ton of interest in Bleday, but they’re always liable to something crazy or stupid. If so, the whole draft would be turned on its head
Keith Law: I hear a few other names but I am sticking with Bleday.

JR: I am surpised Hunter Bishop isnt being mocked to the Tigers at 5? Is that a reach?
Keith Law: That is a reach, given who else would be there.

Josh: Keith, have you gotten a chance to watch Fleabag yet?
Keith Law: Yes, halfway through S2. The best thing about the whole show is that the guy she sleeps with at the start of episode 1, who comes back in several more episodes, is only credited as “Arsehole Guy.”

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What do you think of JJ Bleday’s defense? I’m always wary of drafting someone on the lower end of the defensive spectrum.
Keith Law: Average to 55.

Gnubs: What’s with the decline in the draft success of the Nats front office? Just picking later in the draft? That didn’t seem to matter before as they picked up later round guys than just Strasburg and Harper.
Keith Law: Have they fared poorly? A few years ago they picked at the end of the first/sandwich and got Luzardo and Kieboom.

Kyle: Do you see any chance Mizzou’s T.J. Sikkema goes in the 1st round? Do you think there’s a chance he slips past Day 1?
Keith Law: Funny, that’s my stealth guy who might just sneak into the late first … I don’t think a lot of teams are on him, but there are clearly a few quietly considering him in the 25-40 range. If you want a college starter, he’s established himself as a legit option after the most famous tier is gone.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat today. Do you think Jung would be a big overreach for SF at #10? I know you have him rated lower on your top 100.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over the other available options there.

Devon: A few mocks and some chatter suggests that Abrams might be falling a bit? Any insight into why? Just clubs liking the other guys better / cutting deals to go under-slot?
Keith Law: Every scenario I think has a chance to happen right now is chalk 1-6 – the same six guys in different orders. That’s most likely the three college bats in the top 4, Witt 2, Greene 5, which would mean Abrams 6. If someone ahead of San Diego reaches down at all – e.g., the Tigers take Lodolo – then Abrams could slip and I don’t think teams behind San Diego are necessarily planning to take him.

Soto: If you had personally had a choice between Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson…..who would you pick?
Keith Law: My Big Board ranking of the top 100 prospects in the class answers any of those questions. That’s my personal ‘pref’ list.

Kai: Any idea if it would take well over slot to get Brooks Lee to go pro instead of playing for his dad at Cal Poly?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I have him ranked on talent, but I’m told he’s going to school, period.

Guest: Keith have you ever been asked to make an appearance on the draft? Maybe in Harold Reynolds role? (Kidding, kind of). If they did ask would you do it?
Keith Law: Of course I would, but because of where I work, it’s unlikely. Mayo and I wanted to do a podcast together about the draft but the powers that be scuttled it.

El Zilcho: How much do you think Stinson will ask for?
Keith Law: Off my top 100 entirely. He can’t really ask for anything more than slot wherever he’s taken given the spring he had. If he wants day one money he’ll have to get his fastball back.

Nick: You seem to be the most optimistic on Corbin Carroll’s power outlook. How many homers do you see him hitting annually?
Keith Law: He’s a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

Brian: Hey Keith, if the Giants take Jung at 10, would it likely be an under slot deal?
Keith Law: No.

Kyle: You’ve seen the “Rutschman is the best prospect since Harper” stuff, would he make your top-five draft prospects since 2010?
Keith Law: He might, but no way is he the best draft prospect since Harper. I hate that kind of hyperbole.

Belliard : Is Atlanta/Langeliers buzz increasing or staying steady?
Keith Law: I mentioned him in the mock – him or Carroll, given what I projected 1-8.

Jerome: Do you see the D-Backs drafting Leiter with one of their bazillion picks?
Keith Law: No.

Jim: Will you be doing one more mock before 7pm?
Keith Law: I’ll just keep updating the one that’s already up (I updated it once, I have more stuff to add after this chat).

Feejus: Enjoyed Smart Baseball as well as Mr. Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve
Keith Law: Thank you! Check out Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Ignatius Reilly : Rece Hinds profile sounds similar to that of Joey Gallo, the best Rangers first round pick in the Daniels era — could they go back to the well with Hinds at 41/50, or do you think he’s off the board then
Keith Law: Hinds isn’t Gallo. Gallo is a way better athlete, for starters.

Pat: Someone on MLBN just said that Adley and Witt are the best 1-2 he’s ever seen. Why does the crazy train seem to be firing on all cylinders this year? I don’t see how it’s helpful to speaking hyperbolically about these players. Is there a ratings/click strategy to some of this, perhaps? All it does in my opinion is create unrealistic expectations for the fans (So Adley will be a “bust” if he isn’t Bench, and Witt will be a “bust” if he isn’t A-Rod).
Keith Law: Yeah, I hate that … don’t market the draft by making every draft class into the best ever, because people will catch on and just stop listening. Talk about these players as they are.

Jessica: Hi, Keith! Huge fan! How much stock are you putting in the recent buzz that the Royals may now go with Bleday? What are the chances that Bleday falls to the Tigers?
Keith Law: I don’t have Bleday getting past 4, and I know he’s essentially the third option for KC. If, say, Baltimore took Witt (I doubt it) and KC had some concern over Rutschman’s medicals (unlikely), then they could take Bleday.

Jeff: Any chance of the underslot deal for Baty at 3 or 8?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any real rumors to that effect, just twitter bullshit.
Keith Law: I like Baty a lot but hoo boy, passing on Vaughn at 3 for him?

RJ: ESPN homepage has a link to a Mock 3.1, but it’s time-stamped 7:05 a.m. I assume that’s still 3.0?
Keith Law: No, that’s 3.1 Ignore the timestamps.

Dusty: Can you clarify something? I was under the impression that if Atlanta fails to sign the #9 pick this year, that they would not receive a pick next year (since that pick was already compensation for Stewart from 2018). From what I’ve read today, I may have been mistaken. Do you know for sure what the rule is?
Keith Law: You are mistaken – Atlanta’s pick for Stewart, Arizona’s pick for McClain, and the Dodgers’ pick for Ginn are all protected, so if they don’t sign their picks this year, it rolls one more year. Next year’s compensatory picks would be unprotected.

Jeff: What round range do you expect Zach Huffins, Dalton Rushing, Quin Cotton, & Gabe Holt. Thank you!
Keith Law: Holt in the third; Cotton in the 4th, Huffins maybe 5th-8th (elite runner, not that advanced otherwise), no intel on Rushing.

Dallas: Maybe Langeliers gets a boost from that performance, Garrett Richards was helped in his last college outing by striking out 18 guys after putting up a 5.00 era during regular season.
Keith Law: He wasn’t, though. The Angels were already on him; it’s not like he suddenly threw harder or had a new pitch.

Sean: Did you make it up to see Siani this year? Draft position roughly where you had him ranked?
Keith Law: I saw him, but I don’t think my ranking reflects where he’ll go, since he could want more money than that.

Elliott: Who has the highest scouted tool in the draft? Vaughn’s power?
Keith Law: Greg Jones’ speed.

Andrew: Do you think Shewmake can stay at SS?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bob: Do you think Reds are in on H. Bishop or B. Stott ? Seem to prefer college hitters but not sure if they would value them over Lodolo/Manoah. Thanks
Keith Law: Neither.

Michael: What’s the logic behind JUCO players being eligible right away and others having to play three years?
Keith Law: Protecting college baseball. Why MLB would protect college baseball is beyond me – we still have coaches overusing pitchers and trying to get prospects to matriculate early so they skip the draft.

Mas: Which is more accurate – Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball, or is Mel Kiper the Keith Law of football?
Keith Law: It depends on which of us you think has better hair.

Chuck: I’ve heard comps to Alex Kirilloff fair for Riley Greene. Fair or not?
Keith Law: I do hear huge praise for Greene’s hit tool.

Jeff: Keith – Any updates on players that could fall that LA could scoop up as they’ve done in the past (hopefully this time more Buehler than Kendall)?
Keith Law: This was a bit of why I think they’re a fit for Misner … huge tools, top ten type, who fell on some performance concerns that the Dodgers might think they can fix.

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What are you hearing on Drake Fellows? Top starter for Vanderbilt this year, but kind of an odd year (strong K rate, but 4.34 ERA).
Keith Law: I think he’s a fourth-fifth rounder.
Keith Law: It’s not huge stuff.

Kedelbro: Is Wilson to Twins the backup plan if Stott/Langeliers unavailable?
Keith Law: Yeah, I think that’s about right.

Matt: What do you think is the ceiling for Greg Jones?
Keith Law: He’s more likely a CF than a SS for me, and I really question the hit tool, but it is legitimately game-changing speed, like Billy Hamilton.

A: I don’t understand what “chalk” means in the way you’ve been using it for the top of the draft. Help?
Keith Law: The predicted guys – nobody goes way off the board.

Cole: Where should this ASU student expect Alec Marsh to be picked this year?
Keith Law: Third to fourth round?
Keith Law: Less certain.

Jeff: Do you think only 4 players at the draft hurts the views and buildup at all? Would getting more players not still playing bring more buzz?
Keith Law: It would help to get more guys there, but the timing sucks for it, and at least one of the guys going to Secaucus isn’t going in the first round and might not go at all tonight. That’s not good.
Keith Law: MLBN is in a tough spot.

Jason: You have Carroll at #4 on your list, but you (and the other respectable mock drafters) all have him making it at least to the Braves at #9. What do you see in him that puts him above several of the others in the seeming consensus top 6?
Keith Law: He’s getting crushed for his height and I don’t think it matters.

Bill: Where would Bo Gentry rank in this draft?
Keith Law: He’s in strong consideration at the #2 pick, if Boston doesn’t trade the #1.

Denise: Do you see the mets going for a prep bat or leiter besides all the other pitchers mocked to them?
Keith Law: Not in the first round.

Alex: Any chance anyone meets Tre Fletcher’s number, or is he going to Vandy?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s going to school … it only takes one team, of course, but he seemed to want a big number, and he’s raw, and he hasn’t been easy to see (Maine HS baseball isn’t exactly the easiest to scout).

Curious Reader: Will you be reading Ben Lindbergh’s book “The MVP Machine” coming out tomorrow? I know you Ben has cited you in his works before – were you interviewed for this book?
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it.

JR: Any chance the Mets can find another Jarred Kelenic like player this year, but not trade him months later for pennies on the dollar (as a Mets fan, that’s going to hurt a long time)
Keith Law: That should hurt, because it was obviously a bad deal the day they did it. The new GM didn’t understand the market value Kelenic had at that moment, and got too little in return for him and Dunn.

BullpenHelp: Thanks for the chat KLaw

Where do you see UConn closer Jacob Wallace being drafted?
Keith Law: I have heard he could go third or fourth but I’d bet after the fifth myself. Straight reliever.

Denise: I have heard that the college pitching crop is the worst in a long time, do you think this is so?
Keith Law: Absolutely. The worst I’ve ever covered/been involved in, and this is my 18th draft.

Jerome: Does your Top 100 account for signability also? I.e. Are some players lower on your board do to their college commitments?
Keith Law: No. I don’t get that info on all players, and sometimes I don’t know if the numbers I hear are real or just smokescreens, so I ignore them.

Nate: Last year the Jays surprised some people by going down the draft board a bit and snagging Jordan Groshans, a pick that (so far) seems to have worked out decently. Any chance they do something like that again and anyone like Groshans they could target? Thanks
Keith Law: Pick looks great right now – he was the lowest-ranked first rounder last year, I think? – but I only hear them on college arms, including Rutledge.
Keith Law: If Manoah is there, I would take him, but I’ve heard they have a very split camp on whether he’s a starter in the long term.

Jscott022: UVa is normally a hotbed for draft talent is there anyone out of Virginia going in the early rounds of the draft this year?
Keith Law: Tanner Morris could go in the third; good hitter without a position. I didn’t put him on my top 100 so I have him as more of a fourth-fifth round talent.

Andy: I wish Carter Stewart luck, but the thought process has been asked about college basketball. Why don’t high school kids go overseas and get paid to play, then come back and get drafted by the NBA. The answer is, because going to a new culture is tough for anyone, especially an 18 year old away from home for the first time, and it’s really fucking hard to play against adults doing it professionally. So again, I hope that lots of kids have huge success in Japan and scuttlebutt the MLB draft, but I won’t get my hopes up.
Keith Law: I agree with everything you said here – and because of the CBA, Stewart would be under the international cap system until he’s 25, so he’d have to be there for six seasons.

Nate: Do you see a team going for a reliever tonight and getting the m up to the majors this year?
Keith Law: No. That’s rarely worked.

Jon: Keith, do you see any future “Aces” in this years draft? Thank you and Happy Draft day!!
Keith Law: I don’t, actually, which is also part of why it feels like a bad pitching draft.

Jakob: Ever read any of Neal Stephenson’s books?
Keith Law: Yes, Snow Crash and the Diamond Age. Not a huge fan.

Collin: What’s the word on Brennan Malone’s landing spots? What’s his range tonight in your opinion?
Keith Law: Seems like something caused teams to steer away from him lately, so he might get to the 30s.

Sriram: Thanks for all the work. The Top 100 shows your rankings – but where do you think the major breakpoints are in your rankings, where you think the tiers are among the prospects.
Keith Law: The big one I’ve highlighted is that I think Vaughn is close to Rutschman, and there’s a breakpoint right after him, before the HS crop. That seems to put me at odds with my colleagues at MLB or Fangraphs.

Collin: Is Jerrion Ealy in play for anyone in the first round? How signable is he based on what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: No, not even close to first round. He’s not very good, and he’s probably going to play football.

Roger: If Abrams does slide into the teens/middle of the first round would it be because most of those teams don’t view him as the top prospect on the board? Or possibly because they’ve already done so much work on other players not really realizing he’d be available?
Keith Law: This is a great question for which I don’t have a great answer, but my instinct is that the second issue is bigger than folks want to admit. If you didn’t really do the work on Abrams, and you have a player or small set of players on whom you did all the work (not just scouting but medicals and meetings and psych tests or whatever) who will be there, do you just say “fuck it!” and take Abrams, or stick with your process? I would probably do the latter unless it were someone who was such a no-doubter like Vaughn.

Nate (Seattle): How many drafted players would be in a mid-season top 50 prospect list?
Keith Law: We’ll see in a month, but I’d guess 5-7. We’ve had a lot of graduations from the pro top 100 already.

JD: What’s the knock on Jung in your opinion? Power?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Do teams legitimately have 1200+ person big boards or are they virtually picking names out of a hat at a certain point?
Keith Law: No, more like 500-600 names. There will be picks on day two where other teams might not even have magnets for those players (on their boards).

Steve: Are you watching Good Omens after the draft? Episode 1 was very solid.
Keith Law: Yes, I saved it for after the draft and after I finish Fleabag. Also still working through Doctor Who … maybe they’ll let a Dalek announce one of the picks in the second round tonight?

Nicholas: Please correct me if I am off-base here, but I normally wouldn’t expect you to rank someone like Vaughn (college RH first baseman) as high as you have him. So the bat is really that good?
Keith Law: It’s really that good, and who in this class might be better, especially once you consider the certainty/proximity of a college position player over a high school player?

Josh: What is the best comp for Vaughn, upside-wise?
Keith Law: I have said a few times I think his swing reminds me of Goldschmidt’s, and the profile overall reminds me of Hoskins’, just in a shorter package.

Andrew: Do any of the three, Goss, Thompson or Wolf make it to Texas A&M?
Keith Law: Matt Thompson might. The others don’t.

Jay: Any chance the A’s take Brooks Lee?
Keith Law: No.

Joe: How do you respond to the claims that Rutschman’s bat is better than Vaughn’s because Adley put up better stats in the same conference?
Keith Law: That’s pretty lazy.

Brian: Is the draft “fun” for you, or is it “work”?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time, you know.
Keith Law: OK, I’m going to wrap this up now so I can revise the mock a little (and get a few minutes with my daughter since she’s about to come home from school). I’ll do the live Periscope at 7 pm ET through Twitter, then I’ll write up a day one recap/analysis tonight. Tomorrow’s plan: A YouTube video where I discuss day one with Jeff Passan; a chat in the afternoon, probably at 2 pm. Then I’ll start working up team by team recaps. Thank you all for reading and for all your questions – enjoy the draft!

My latest mock for Monday’s MLB draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Head in the clouds, your pockets filled with dreams. It’s Klawchat.

Kevin S.: A couple weeks ago in your chat, you mentioned that you felt the “Yankee voodoo” we joke about is actually something they’re doing developmentally that the rest of the league has not caught onto yet. Is it something specific you’re seeing (and if so, what?), or are you inferring this from their successes with guys like Voit and Urshela?
Keith Law: I’m inferring from their success with several hitters (and their ability to get nice velocity bumps from some young pitchers in the low minors), and from other writers’ coverage of the Yanks’ data-driven development approach. I’ve linked to a few things Lindsey Adler has written for the Athletic about this.

Jeff: Keith – Walker Buehler has been, on the surface, a little disappointing to date, but has an FIP in the mid 3s…assume you believe there’s no reason for concern?
Keith Law: As long as he’s healthy, yes, no reason.

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).
Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

Jeff: Keith – Who are the most likely players to start falling that the Dodgers might scoop up as they did with Buehler & Kendall?
Keith Law: I mentioned Misner, who is very Kendall-like in his great tools/high strikeout profile but maybe a better pure athlete, in my mock. I bet they go with a good HS player with one pick (Brooks Lee’s name has come up twice with them since I posted the mock) and then take a guy who ‘fell’ like Misner or Zack Thompson.

Teddy: How fixable is Hunter Bishop’s strikeout issue? Is it a mechanical or pitch recognition problem?
Keith Law: Can it be neither?

Teddy: What percent chance would you give Kyle McCann to stick behind the plate?
Keith Law: Close to zero.

Dana: With Didi coming back and Torres moving to second, are the Yanks better off playing Urshela or LeMahieu at third?
Keith Law: Urshela and let DJLM move around.

Steve: Let’s say the O’s cut a deal with Bleday and Witt goes 2, do the White Sox go Vaughn or Rutschman? How much money would Bleday have to save GM KLaw for you to pass on Vaughn/Rutschman there?
Keith Law: I think White Sox would absolutely take Rutschman, but I hear directly conflicting stories on whether they would take Vaughn (what I put in my mock) or Abrams (which I believe Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo had in their mocks). I keep hearing Kenny Williams is very involved in their draft room, which I don’t exactly understand, and that he favors Abrams. The last time the White Sox had a top ten pick and used it on a high school position player was … 1985.

Mattey: Kingery is starting in CF for the Phillies again today. Is he good enough of a defender to become the everyday player there?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen him do it – he was a CF until his junior year at Arizona, then moved to 2b, where I think he’s a potential 70 defender – but I believe he has the speed and instincts to do it, just not really the ideal arm.

Kevin : Does Tampa call up McKay?
Keith Law: I believe he’ll be up this summer. It’s time for him to give up hitting.

Bobby W: Any idea what the Padres’ pref list order looks like for Vaughn/Abrams/Bleday/Greene?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any way Vaughn or Bleday gets to them. Given the two HS hitters, I think they’d take Greene over Abrams.

Pete: Your reports talked about it and it looks clear seeing him hit — Austin Riley is going to strike out a lot. Once regression hits and he slows down, do you still project him as a regular?
Keith Law: 55 defender with his kind of power is a regular, definitely.

Eddy: If your mock had Jackson Rutledge off the board at 9, who would you have given to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Bishop. Texas is the only team ahead of Atlanta I could see taking Rutledge.

Danfromman: It seems that teams put quite a bit of importance on recent performance when evaluating their potential draft picks. Is this not a risk for SSS bias.
Keith Law: Maybe, but the flip side is that players that young tend to change rather significantly even year to year, and underweighting recent performance (and looks) risks missing players who’ve reached a new level of physical or emotional maturity or just learned something new.

Kyle KS: Parks and Rec question, my wife says the episodes with Louis CK are now ruined for her even though the one with Leslie preparing for the date is one of her favorites. She won’t watch those now. I’ll watch them based in the hope they didn’t know about his behavior. I’m not sure if you rewatch shows like this but how would you treat those episodes?
Keith Law: I almost never rewatch shows. I’d be more comfortable watching something from before a creep was outed than watching anything from afterwards. Like, Roman Polanski is terrible, but Chinatown was before he was convicted?

Eddy: What am I missing on Brennan Malone not being higher? Lot of athleticism, velocity, good breaking ball and changeup seems positive. Is he not higher simply because he’s a high school RHP or is there another concern?
Keith Law: HS RHP with good breaking ball, velocity but not life or high spin, not super projectable. I think he’s in the right spot.

Mark: I really do not think there is any reasonable argument to be made for not extending the netting in MLB parks. If it saves 1 life or prevents 1 traumatic injury it is worth it. Where do you think Rutchman, Vaughn, Witt, etc., rank compared to your preseason top 100 minor leaguers?
Keith Law: Rutschman and Vaughn would be top 25 prospects, the next tier (including Witt) might not be top 50. We’ve had a lot of graduations already this year, though, so if I redid a top 100 next Wednesday it would look very different than January’s.

Kyle: Hard Yordan Alvarez moved into your Top 100 yet?
Keith Law: Good example of someone who’d be on it now. So would Balazovic, who was on my ‘just missed’ list in January.

Rick Sanchez: Do you buy Luis Urias’ recent power surge at all, or is it just a product of SSS in a hitter’s environment with a juiced ball?
Keith Law: Power surge, no. High average/OBP, yes, I buy those.

Frank Viola: Wander Franco has been hitting out of his mind recently. How does Franco compare to Vlad when he was same age/level?
Keith Law: Pretty close overall but Franco offers more value beyond the batter’s box while Vlad Jr had (has) the exceptional power.

Moe Mentum: What was your primary motivation to stop eating beef? Also, were there any noticeable acclimatization phases (good or bad) when you first made this dietary change – e.g. fitness level, weight gain/loss, digestion, general health, food budget, shopping habits, etc.?
Keith Law: My daughter and I have an inborn error of metabolism that (boring biochemistry stuff) makes it harder for us to digest red meat. I realize now in hindsight that I felt really crappy after eating beef in particular.

Marshall MN: Are there any “obvious” sign under slot guys that you could see shaking up the top 10? I know you mentioned a couple as it related to the Orioles first pick, but I was just curious if there were any others?
Keith Law: Jung may not be very under-slot but he was the one I had in the mock who’s not top ten talent etc. but could go up there. I think the top ten go pretty chalk, but around the Phillies at 14 the potential for deals opens up a lot.

Marc: Should Pelosi move to impeach Trump and who should the Mets pick at 12? Also, can we get Kelenic back?
Keith Law: Yes, Manoah if he gets there (and he might), and sorry, no refunds.

Chuck: Mr. Klaw, your thoughts on the Carter Stewart news? Is MLB going to have to wake up and pay prospects what they’re worth?
Keith Law: I don’t think this moves the needle at all.

Shawn: Drew Rasmussen is flying up the Brewers system. Is he a top 100 prospect in the next re-tank and do you think he Starts long term or ends up in the bullpen (pen maybe this year?!)
Keith Law: Very few guys have two TJs and stay starters.

Pat: What has Matthew Boyd changed to all of a sudden become so good? Also, if you wereDetroit would you trade him ? 3 1/2 yrs of control left, good fit for SD with that park?
Keith Law: Added a cutter and uses it a lot – as he should as his fastball was unplayable. Martin Perez has done the same this year. Add a pitch and, assuming it’s good, you can become a totally different guy. Boyd wasn’t even a fifth starter for me with his previous repertoire. Now he’s a legit mid-rotation guy (and, apparently, a great, generous person, too).

Eric: did anyone project this kind of power from yelich? i’m a marlins fan, and his skillset was always pure hitting, but always felt he’d be capped at around 20HRs. this is incredible.
Keith Law: I think I’d projected 25+ from him when he was younger but I’m not totally sure. Of course everyone’s hitting more HR now because of the juiced ball.

Tom: Have you seen or heard anything on Forrest Whitley to change your outlook on him? When healthy, could the Astros promote him to see what getting him out of that envirnoment does?
Keith Law: He’s on the IL with a sore shoulder.

Ben: Any new articles can we expect to see from you these next couple days leading up to the draft? Thx
Keith Law: Next mock is Monday. If there’s sufficient news before then, I’ll write, but I’d rather hold smaller news back for the mock.

chauncey: what are your feelings on Andruw Vaughn?
Keith Law: I’m imagining this as Vaughn’s bat and Andruw Jones’ glove and that’s like Mike Trout without the speed.

Jake: Do you see Witt Jr. as a no doubt SS or could he be moved around the diamond based on his athleticism? CF?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop, that’s no doubt.

Scott: Do you think there is a problem with the offensive explosion in the minor leagues, particularly the PCL? Can a team like Arizona accurately evaluate their players in Reno?
Keith Law: Yes, using the juiced ball in AAA has been a big mistake.

Harper’s Socks: How likely is it that one of the big 6 hitters (Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene, Bleday) is available for the Reds at 7? Who would be most likely to fall and why?
Keith Law: I think those guys go 1-6 in some order and the Reds take Lodolo or, failing that, Kirby.

Eric: have you read michael lewis’ “the new risk?” even knowing that the government agencies under trump were bad, the amount of negligence to vital needs is still jarring.
Keith Law: No, because I think it’s going to just make me more angry at the low-key damage being done to our society and economy in ways that don’t make headlines.

ATL: You gotten any like at Dylan Carlson? Has he made any adjustments that could vault him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I’m a believer. I’d guess he’d make a revised top 100.

jeff: so i realize this injury is sort of murky for Correa, but is it fair to say injuries/durability are a real concern with him at this point?
Keith Law: He needs to come up with better injury excuses. Like, ‘my fiancee and i were trying out the new trapeze in the bedroom and the rope snapped, i’ll secure it better next time.’

Zac: On your prospect big board, there was a comment about Alex Manoah had no flaws in his delivery except he pitches out of the stretch every time, is that a knock against him for he doesn’t have a wind up so you don’t know if there are flaws?
Keith Law: It’s a knock because it’s atypical, but I don’t see why it’s actually bad.

Doug: Kimbrels market is going to explode once he loses the draft pick right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Kevinkyle: Keith, love your work, thanks for all you do. I always find something interesting in your music recs. Have you ever spent any time listening to jazz or blues music? I grew up on hard rock and metal and somehow ended up enjoying a lot of jazz. Thanks again
Keith Law: I like it but don’t really know it well.

WhiteSoxAndy: Is Lucas Giolito for real? I want to believe. The truth is out there.
Keith Law: Yes. New changeup, tweaked delivery, better focus too. Gave up a 3R bomb in the first the other day and bore down afterwards to dominate.

CD: Based on your mock and Top 100, it appears Oakland would be reaching a bit on Greg Jones. Are you hearing them on any other guys closer to your draft rankings?
Keith Law: Yes – some will be gone, like Will Wilson or Busch, and some would be good value but higher-risk like Goss. They’re on all of them and Logan Davidson too. I just think Jones has a real hit tool question and can’t stay at short.

Will R.: Keith, per your recent mock draft it looks like you have Chicago kid Quinn Preister slipping a bit. His draft stock take a hit lately due to performance?
Keith Law: Not at all. Just that the industry doesn’t love HS RHP.

Michael: Can you explain Bellinger’s success? He hit one HR as a senior in high school. How does he go from that to perhaps the best power hitter in the league in such a short time. Is this projectable for anyone in this year’s draft class?
Keith Law: Swing changed a lot in pro ball. Also I think everyone missed what a great defender he was at 1b and that he could play at least average defense in CF (a really rare combination).

Adam D.: I’m not overly enthusiastic about Bryson Stott to the Giants. Seems like a high floor, low ceiling pick. Would you agree with that, or does he have a chance to be more than an average regular?
Keith Law: I had them taking Bishop, not Stott. I don’t think there’s a scenario where they end up with Stott, because one of Bishop or Manoah probably gets to them. If Bishop goes 9, I’d give the Giants Manoah and the Blue Jays Rutledge, and then Stott still gets to 13.

Aaron C.: What’s the plan for “Klaw-smas Day” (draft day)? TV hits? Running blog-like commentary/diary? Or, should I mind my own damn business?
Keith Law: Doing some TV hits on Baseball Tonight Sunday, then I don’t know about Monday yet. I’ll chat in the afternoon, for sure, and probably live-tweet that evening? I’ll file a day one recap that night for sure and do a second chat Tuesday afternoon after the third round.

Pete: Should the Mets just keep playing Dom Smith in LF until Nimmo returns so he gets regular reps for the time being or is it not worth the defensive hit the team would take?
Keith Law: They’re not going to the playoffs this year so I’d play him – and tell him his defense doesn’t matter, just worry about hitting – and let him get more at bats.

James: Is Dustin May a future #1? Separately, can he be useful in relief for LA later this year?
Keith Law: I feel like more #2 than #1 due to delivery but I wouldn’t be shocked if he turned into an ace in time. Great athlete with ridiculous shit.

Tom: Any scuttlebutt on who the Red Sox may their eye on at #43?
Keith Law: Very little, but I did hear them connected to the two hitters at U of Arizona, Quintana and Cannon. They’re just so far down that I don’t hear much gossip about them.

Dan: Hey Keith, thanks as always for the chats! I know we’ve established that ‘clutchiness’ doesn’t exist but what about the really extreme hot streaks? I’m talking about Arietta’s 2015 second half (0.75 ERA/0.727 WHIP in 107 IP) or Yelich’s 2018 second half (.367/.449/.770, 25 HR in 65 games). Are these guys just seeing the ball exceptionally well or have perfect arm action for months at a time? Or is this a mix of talent and a lot of luck in not having a bad stretch of games? I guess what I’m getting at here is if you’re up against one of those guys when they’re on a roll like that, is their recent hot performance a predictor of future performance?
Keith Law: The smaller the time period, the more frequent extreme performances will be.

Mark: do you have more faith in the Giants talent evaluation this draft than you have in the past?
Keith Law: Did I ever say I didn’t like their evaluations? I may not have loved some of their high picks but I don’t remember ever questioning their scouting staff.

Jordan: Will JJ Bleday be an above average regular in the MLB?
Keith Law: I think so. He might have the strongest hands/wrists in the draft. Even with that hitch in his swing, he can drive the ball to all fields like it’s nothing.

Teddy: Can you expand on your response to the Hunter Bishop strikeout question? Are you saying you don’t think he has a strikeout issue, or it’s not clear what the cause is?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s mechanical or some kind of lack of pitch recognition.

Jonathan: Cameron Cannon has hit very well in college in this year. Thoughts on where he might go in the draft and is the knock on him his defense?
Keith Law: Specifically that he has no position, but he can hit.

Jeff: Do you agree that it’s best to combat anti-vaxxers with debate and not censorship? I ask because the refusal to debate/ growing push to censor them seems to empower them and even give credence to their ridiculous claims among those who are on the fence, at least in my small sample.
Keith Law: The best way to combat them is to ban nonmedical exemptions, and then educate the few people who fight it.

Matt Klentak: Keith, My track record in the draft is below-average. Who should I draft at 14?
Keith Law: I’ve heard them with all manner of players – I think my last list for them had a college bat, a HS bat, a college arm, and a HS arm. I’d like to see them not play it safe because that hasn’t worked well for them.

Alex: You mention the Nats routinely take “famous” players. Any reason or method to that for them?
Keith Law: It’s worked kind of well for them. Their record with first and supplemental-round picks is quite good.

Ed: Please tell me the Padres aren’t going with another arm in round 1
Keith Law: I only listed them with bats in my mock.

Rick Hahn: Coming into today’s game Zach Collins is hitting .248/.375/.522, which is very similar to Adam Dunn’s line with the Reds .247/.380.520. Is Dunn a good hitting comp for Collins, who looks to be a 3 true outcomes type of hitter.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close.

Mok: Do I have this right according to the party of science: misgendering someone or even being slightly skeptical of vaccines is literal violence, but killing an unborn child is “reproductive rights”?
Keith Law: No, you don’t have it right. And I don’t think it matters to you that you’re wrong.

JP: The Rays struggling to break 6,000 fans while playing .640+ ball is probably a harbinger of the future of baseball in St Petersburg, right?
Keith Law: Agreed. I’d really like to see them moved to another market at this point. Everyone says Portland but I keep banging the drum for Austin.

Brian: Keith, I understand that Wilmington is a tough park for hitters but the lack of contact by the Royals hitting prospects is alarming. When watching their games does something stand out why the contact rate is so poor among all their hitters?
Keith Law: Each is swinging and missing in a different way. Matias is the most alarming because he just swings really hard without any sign that he’s distinguishing pitch type or location.

JP: Klaw you’ve mentioned that you are in the final year of your current contract. Do you have an idea when we might know more? Not sure when my Insider/+ subscription expires but my decision to renew will basically be contingent on your status.
Keith Law: I don’t think I can answer that publicly, but thank you very much for the kind words.

Matt: Can you believe Trump is this petty and childish? Even though you hate *my favorite team* even I know you would never ask them to cover the name when you go to a game.
Keith Law: The next team to go to the White House after winning some championship should all show up in jerseys that say “MCCAIN.”

Michael: If someone had picked Trout top 5, how much grief would they have gotten?
Keith Law: I think a lot, between Billy Rowell (9th pick in 2006 from south Jersey, total bust) and Trout’s profile (white-right-right high school outfielder from the northeast, hits a lot of old scouting stereotypes).

Brian: Sorry if this is a dumb question but when you review board games do you play with other people or ride solo?
Keith Law: Not dumb at all! I play everything with at least one other person unless it’s a true solo game. Usually I try to play anything that plays 3+ with at least three people.

Gerald: Sports talk radio here in Arizona is so old fashioned and bad – also the main guy here ‘gambo’ says “wow NO WAY the Dbacks should have to eat Grienke salary in a trade” what he doesn’t realize is we would get better prospects in return, right ? And with this many high draft
Keith Law: He’s not good. I won’t go on their station because he slandered me on air. Your take is correct: if they pay more of the salary, they’ll get a better return.

James: Your tweets suggest that anyone who doesn’t want nets around the field has no feeling. I attend many games with my children, whom I generally like and desire to keep safe. And yet I hate the idea of nets from pole to pole. You cannot regulate away every risk, and the incidents of injury like we saw last night are extremely low. More people get hurt walking around the park than by batted balls. The nets would have a significant effect on the feel of the game and my enjoyment of it. It’s not cold-hearted to think that.
Keith Law: I sit behind nets all the time and I don’t notice them any more at all. Your brain will learn quickly to filter it out.

Steve: It feels like Anthony Volpe is destined to be a great player that is drafted too low, doesn’t it?
Keith Law: I do not get that feeling, no. I think he’s a fine prospect who’ll be a great college player, but his tools are limited. You have to absolutely believe he’s going to hit to feel as you do.

J: I know we’re mostly on the draft tip today, but thoughts on Devin Smeltzer and Zack Plesac moving forward this season?

Also, is Smeltzer-Plesac an 80’s jazz fusion band, or a chemical company?
Keith Law: I’m in on Plesac – had him 14th in Cleveland’s system last year, talked him up as a possible starter – less so on Smeltzer, who seems like a reliever to me.

Andrew: Difference between Nate Pearson his draft year and Jackson Rutledge this year?
Keith Law: Pearson was (is) a better athlete with a better delivery, I think. Rutledge is fortunate to come out in a way weaker draft and probably benefits from how good Pearson’s been.

Brian: Will you be Periscoping the draft again this year? If so, what will be your drink of choice?
Keith Law: If there’s demand, then yes, I’ll do that

Sue: Corbin Burnes has really struggled for the Brewers. They say they will still give him the chance to be a starter. Do you still believe he has a high ceiling as a starter?
Keith Law: I do, completely. Some absurdly bad luck, and very poor location on four-seamers. The former will work out in time; the latter is entirely fixable.

Andrew: Is there precedent/comp to J.J. Bleday’s swing? You mentioned he looks like he’s swinging an axe in your top 100 big board which scares me and that was enough for me to put Hunter Bishop ahead of him.
Keith Law: Hunter Pence’s hitch was worse, as I recall it from when he first came up.
Keith Law: He worked out OK.

Jerry Dybzinski: Are you related to Vance Law?
Keith Law: No, but Ty Law is my first cousin.

Chris: What’s the knock on Goss in the draft ?
Keith Law: None beyond that he’s a high school right-hander.

Andrew: Thoughts on high school prospect Jason Hodges?
Keith Law: If he’s signable, I think he’s a third-fifth round talent.

Austin: Have you seen any improvements with Adam Haseley or is this just Reading at it’s finest?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Reading, but I have not heard about any positive changes to his swing that would make me think this is real.

Eric: What is considered success for an organization for a top-10 (or first-round) pick? Make it to the majors? Be a regular? Be an all-star?
Keith Law: If you get a regular position player or mid-rotation starter at picks 2-10, you did well. At 1, you should shoot for a star.

Chris P: Where does Leiter need to be taken to pry him away from Vandy? I’m assuming he’s not good enough to go top 15, so he’s off to school.
Keith Law: The consistent rumor is that he’d sign with the Yanks or Mets but no one else. What that might cost, I don’t know. I don’t even know if that’s accurate, but I keep hearing it.

MJ: Alek Thomas on course for the next 100?
Keith Law: Yes. I had him as a first-round talent last June and so far he looks like he was one.

Greg: Now that it looks like Pedroia is done…Do Utley, Pedroia, and Cano all go to the HOF? Does Utley benefit the most from retiring first?
Keith Law: I’m going to guess none of the three get in. Utley may have the best case.

Eric: Byron Buxton is fun and awesome. No question, just wanted to remind everyone.
Keith Law: I agree. One of the most exciting players to watch today.
Keith Law: Hell, the Twins are *fun* as a whole.

Jeff: If the padres wind up with Vaughn would it be to eventually trade him? Hope for the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: Or to think they can dump Hosmer at some point?

Brother: Deivi Garcia: how short is too short? What chance does he have of actually starting in MLB?
Keith Law: Not too short. He’s like 6′. He might be too slight, but that’s another question.

Sean: Please start promoting Dr. Gunter’s upcoming book, already have one pre-ordered.
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it yet.

Lobster Klaws: Sorry if this has been asked, but have you tried the Impossible Burger? I want to try it, but fear that by the time they get it into supermarkets, the price will be too high. Same reason I don’t buy bison (which is better than regular ground beef in some regards).
Keith Law: Yep, it’s really good.

HugoZ: Seriously, you think Polanski suddenly became a pervert in 1977?
Keith Law: No, I think that’s when he got caught. (I’ve actually seen The Pianist, which came out way after 1977, but the idea of considering the sins of the artist when choosing what art to consume hadn’t even occurred to me yet. I do still struggle with those decisions, especially when it comes to works of art that are acknowledged classics and highly influential, meaning that you have a hard time talking about contemporary works without knowing what came before.)

Pat: If you had to handicap it, what are the chances the O’s take Adley? 85%? Worse?
Keith Law: 50/50.

Mike: How big of a mistake/reach would it be in your opinion if the White Sox take Abrams?
Keith Law: Since Vaughn will be on the board in that scenario, then yes, it’s a significant mistake. And I don’t say that very often in the draft. They’d just be passing on a much better player to take someone who is very risky, and their history with players like Abrams (prep kids with a couple of plus-plus tools but questions about their ability to hit) isn’t as good as it is with college players.

Teddy: We’re seeing young player after young player get to Atlanta. Why did Anthopoulos fire the guy responsible for picking those players in Bridges?
Keith Law: He didn’t fire him, and I do not believe AA would say anything negative at all about Bridges’ drafts (which, as you say, were good at the time and look even better now).

PhillyJake: As the parent of a high school student, I’ve read lots recently about adjusting the start time of the school day. Minor league baseball has lots of kids just post high school in America, and high school aged in the DSL (and others, I’d bet) Is there word they’ve seen these studies and have adjusted their schedules for these kids?
Keith Law: I know several teams that have tried to teach prospects more about the importance of sufficient, high-quality sleep. Unfortunately games that run to 10:30 or later aren’t conducive to maintaining good sleep hygiene.

NHSI Guy: Hi Keith. No question. I’m the guy you spent like 20 minutes talking with as we walked out of the NHSI together in April. Because of work, I’m rarely available to read your chats live, so this is my first chance to say I enjoyed our chat and thanks for your generosity.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I enjoyed our chat!

Pat: Have you heard any concerns about Rutschman’s shoulder? I’ve read that he had to stop playing quarterback in HS as a result, but I don’t know if that’s a nothingburger or not. Do teams have access to medicals before the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that there is a medical report on him teams will see, but whether it’s a real issue, I don’t know and likely wouldn’t say unless folks like Callis/Mayo discuss it first (since they’re affiliated with MLB). I am very uncomfortable discussing non-public medical reports prior to the draft.

Joshua: How quick do you think Shea Langeliers could move up and play in the majors? Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I think his defense would be ready quickly, but his bat may be 2-3 years away.

Jack: How quickly does Rutschman reach the majors?
Keith Law: He should be up by the end of 2020.

Mose Allison Brie Larson: RE: netting from foul pole to foul pole – in Japan, where baseball is nearly a religion, they employ such a set-up. No one minds any all, and having attended games there, I can opine that it takes nothing away from the in-person experince.
Keith Law: It’s the most specious of complaints, and the benefit is reduced injuries.

Sam: What’s the highest spot you see Keoni Cavaco going?
Keith Law: I could see him going in the 25-35 range. Maybe the Dodgers or Cubs.

Adam D.: This is a bit of a crazy idea, but given how loaded the 2020 class is, would it make any sense at all for a team picking in the top-10 or so to pick one of the likely un-signable kids safe in the knowledge that not signing them means multiple first round picks next year?
Keith Law: No. People suggest that frequently in drafts that seem down, but 1) next year’s draft could always turn out to be worse than we think 2) a player today is worth a lot more than a player a year from now and 3) the GM/director in question could always lose their job before they get that extra pick.

Joe Don: In Mock 2.0 you report hearing that Texas could be changing from its long-standing preference for high-ceiling draftees. How come? The game is changing (TTO)? Disappointment with past results (Dillon Tate)? Something else?
Keith Law: They haven’t had great results with players like Jenkins or Thompson in recent drafts … maybe they’d take those players with lower picks, and try to lock in value with safer guys when drafting this high?

Joules: Draft periscope please!
Keith Law: Well, I guess that settles it. I’ll do a Periscope Monday, depending on whether TV needs me at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ll be back to chat again Monday afternoon after my final mock is posted. I’ll also be offline for a bit this weekend (longtime readers know why), so I may be less visible here or on social media. Thanks as always for all of your questions!

Keith Law: Let the melody shine. It’s Klawchat.

Rob D: Is Adley a better prospect than Posey was in his draft year?
Keith Law: No, not in my opinion. I do think there are scouts/execs who disagree; Posey wasn’t projected to hit for as much power as he did, and Adley is a better defensive catcher right now than Posey was on draft day, but I think Posey was a much better pure hitter at that time.

Mark: Has Anthony Kay pushed into a top 100 guy? Seems like his stuff is back and maybe better than ever.
Keith Law: Stuff is back, healthy, don’t think the stuff is any better but he needed more time to recover his command and be able to hold his stuff deep into games. I’m like a broken record on this but not every guy who has TJ comes back fresh as a daffodil the moment he returns to pro ball. Some guys take way longer, some need a second surgery (Espinoza and Ragans already this year), some just never come back.
Keith Law: Anyway, yeah, Kay’s pretty damn good.

TC: what has been the craziest/most intense high school or college game you have ever scouted at?
Keith Law: I saw Byron Buxton create the tying run in the bottom of the 7th with his speed when I saw him in HS, in Baxley, Georgia, and his team ended up walking it off a few batters later. I think it was an important game for the team and there were far more people there than at almost any other HS game I’ve ever attended.

addoeh: How many Republicans will look the other way when Trump inevitably ignores both the Courts and Congress with regards to investigating his finances?
Keith Law: All of them? All of them. Susan Collins will express her concern, though.

Eric: Barring an unexpected drop by Adley, is Abrams the pick at 3 for the White Sox?
Keith Law: He’s a possible pick. If 1-2 are Adley-Witt, I think the White Sox would choose between Vaughn and Abrams. They’ve been linked to HS guys a few times in recent drafts only to revert to college on draft day.

Justin: A couple of years ago you correctly predicted the twins regression after a hot start to the season, any thoughts on the team this year?
Keith Law: Legit. I said this winter I thought they were a more likely contender than people thought. Granted, I don’t think they hit 400 homers this year or whatever they’re projected to hit, but I do think they are a 90+ win team.

addoeh: Would you ever take your dog to a bark at the baseball park promotional event?
Keith Law: I don’t have a dog but if I did I wouldn’t, mostly because I’d be so focused on the dog that I wouldn’t enjoy the game. I was at a Wilmington game recently and sat next to a very large, sweet-tempered dog … who just didn’t like this one other dog who kept walking past us and so he’d briefly lose his mind.

Phil: Hey Keith. Has Gio Urshela made sustainable changes or is this still small sample size?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

Jesse B: What are your thoughts on the season Dylan Carlson is having so far?
Keith Law: That kind takes some really exceptional at bats for his age.

Matt B: I know you weren’t a fan of how Jim Penders handled his pitchers, but Anthony Kay and Tim Cate are having darn good years this season. What are you seeing or hearing on them?
Keith Law: Answered a little above, but I think those guys are succeeding in spite of Uconn’s handling of them.

Damien : Has Giolito finally arrived?
Keith Law: I’m in. It’s weird, the guy who kept asking me in chat when I was going to admit that Giolito would never be more than a fifth starter hasn’t asked me that in a long time.

Jeff: Any truth to the underslot deals for Brett Baty in the top 10 that’s going around? He seems to be either be loved or down on the board because of his age.
Keith Law: I never want to say never, but I don’t think he goes that high. If he were 18, then yes, he’d go top ten, we might even talk about him as a top five talent. But analytical models are going to destroy him for his age. Part of me wonders if that’s too extreme because we simply don’t have comparables – when was the last really good HS position player who was 19.5 or more on draft day?

Brian: I know you’ve commented on the Phillies disastrous first round picks in recent weeks. But is it a little early to give up on Moniak at 21? He’s had a very good May after a strong second half last year & his power is up, with it actually being better on the road than at Reading.
Keith Law: Avoid that kind of thin-slicing unless you know of an actual mechanical or physical change to justify it – and there isn’t one here.

G: So..this version of Josh Bell came out of nowhere, huh? I don’t recall ever seeing raw power grades on him equating to the types of bombs he’s hitting lately.
Keith Law: I think he’s always had that kind of power, but didn’t execute in games in a way that would get to it – like many Pirates hitters he was more focused on contact and going the other way until this year.

Matt: How does a guy like Torres hit 10 HR’s vs 1 specific team but 2 vs the rest of MLB? Is it SSS or is he able to see the ball better in Baltimore?
Keith Law: There is no “see the ball better in” park X. The Orioles’ pitching is kind of terrible. I also think Gleyber’s pretty good, BTW.

Jeff: First player to the big leagues from the 2019 draft?
Keith Law: I think Vaughn and Rutschman will move very quickly, or a polished starter like Manoah. I don’t see a reliever who’s going to fly through a system (and half the time that doesn’t work anyway).

Chris: How do you think Kevin Cron will fare in the major leagues?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to strike out way too much. Those 21 HR are a function of real power + Reno’s ridiculous environment + AAA using the silly ball now.

Dylan: Stupid question that likely only I am interested in – any thoughts on which potential top 5 pick has the most fantasy upside?
Keith Law: Abrams, if he goes top 5, has 80 speed and might be a 30-40 stolen base guy. Rutschman I suppose has a lot of value as a catcher who should hit 20-25 HR a year.

Nate: If Bryan reynolds has below average power and can only play left field can he still be a major league starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think either part of your premise is true.

Cw: Who do you think is the ideal fit in the draft for the Phillies system?
Keith Law: The best player available.

Paul: So glad to see your expectations for Devers come true. Approach, conditioning and natural skills all coming together now!
Keith Law: Still young, too. More power to come.

Jeff: Is Bobby Witt’s age any concern too or is he that good where it won’t end up mattering in the top 5?
Keith Law: I think that his age should be a little more of a concern and Baty’s should be a little less, but that neither guy should be eliminated or massively downgraded for it. Witt’s good. Baty’s good. Their age is one variable among many. I also think Witt’s going 2 so it’s probably not affecting him at all.

Bradley: Congratulations on staying aboard the Giolito train. White Sox fans have to be feeling very encouraged after his start to the year and especially last night. Does he still have the TOR potential that was expected of him as a prospect? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I do think he does, especially with that plus changeup he’s using now.

88 Skis: Lots of talk about the Rangers going under-slot at 8, overslot at 41 and/or 50. Assuming they go underslot at 8, who are the names we should be watching for them to go over for with the next two picks?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve heard this, but then again the advisers of the players they’ve supposedly tried to negotiate deals with already say nothing of the sort has happened. I think this is more Texas casting a wide net, knowing that they may not get anyone they love if 1-7 all go with slot guys.

Kevin: Buxton looks like a bust for former #1 prospect. Why everyone projects he will hit for average and power in the minors?
Keith Law: Buxton has a 111 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR already this year. Did you type this question in February and only hit send today?

MMitchell: What do you make of teams no longer waiting until the projected Super 2 cutoff to call up premium prospects. Should the Astros move on Yordan Alvarez now?
Keith Law: Where would they play him?

Ker Pal: When you worked for the Jays, were you aware that Victoria Day was a big deal in Canada? The tone deafness of giving your only attraction (Vlad) a routine day off on one of the biggest attendance days of the year was pretty incredible.
Keith Law: I was made aware of it by the Canadian natives in the office, so, yeah, this was a surprising choice by the team.

joe random: have the Giants been linked to any player in particular?
Keith Law: A lot of players, including a couple of HS arms (Allan), and Hunter Bishop if he gets there.

Jeff: 2 former SS to play for us. Who is the more surefire big leaguer? Shewmake or Will Wilson?
Keith Law: Wilson, I think.

Beau: Why do you think so many teams/ scouts missed on Franmil. What has he changed?
Keith Law: He changed his approach midyear 2018, after a demotion to AAA. Before then, he was overly aggressive and very vulnerable to breaking stuff. He came back a different guy.
Keith Law: He went from someone I tabbed as a low-OBP fourth OF before 2018 to one of my breakout picks for 2019 (so far, that one looks good).

romorr: Have you heard of any concrete changes to the Orioles pitching philosophy in the minors? Some guys are putting up some huge K numbers than before, and a few control/command guys are walking more.
Keith Law: No and I saw Frederick’s whole rotation but one and I don’t think anything has changed there … they just have some good arms. No bats though.

Jeff: How close was Quin Cotton to the top 100? 4th OF or future starter if it all works out?
Keith Law: Fourth OF most likely. In the next 20-30 names.

Jarred Kelenic: How good will i be and will trading me be one of the Mets’ worst moves ever?
Keith Law: Frequent all-star and yes. Dunn’s good too.

Mike: How can we get legislators to understand that giving huge subsidies (tax breaks, cash incentives and gifted municipal property) is a really, really bad idea that does not pay off economically in any way, shape or form?
Keith Law: Only by voting them out every single time. For now, legislators see it as a way to stay in office.

Eric: Best way to cook a whole chicken?
Keith Law: Spatchcock.

Zac: Has Jake Rogers changed his approach this year or is it a case of SSS?
Keith Law: SSS.

G: Have you watched Fleabag season 2? Easily my favorite show of 2019 so far. Phoebe Waller-Bridge is so talented it makes me angry with myself.
Keith Law: That’s my next binge-watch, actually. She’s amazing. I’m also still working through Doctor Who, of course.

Jordan: Who will win the Indy 500 on Sunday?
Keith Law: It won’t be the measles! http://www.espn.com/racing/indycar/story/_/id/26807623/indy-500-offici…

Ryan: Will Gore be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball at the start of next year?
Keith Law: Probably … depends on whether Whitley turns his season around and gets the call.

Cape Guy: Where do you see Tyler Dyson being drafted? Was impressed with him this summer at Falmouth but looks like there was some regression at UF.
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes in the top three rounds. He could fall to the eleventh if he still wants top 100 kind of money.

Ant T: Who are the Mets most linked to at 12?
Keith Law: College guys, mostly, a bat if one falls, an arm like Manoah or Kirby if not.

romorr: Zac Lowther continues to pitch well, chances he is more than a back end guy? Dreaming of a Hall, Rodriguez, Lowther 1-2-3.
Keith Law: More back-end guy with the marginal stuff but a good/fun one. Some #4/#5 starters are just more fun to watch than others.

Josh: Did Buck’s abuse of Bundy in 2016 contribute to what he is now, or do you think the damage was already done and this is the best version of Bundy that could possibly manifest given his injuries?
Keith Law: I think it is impossible to separate the two. He was overused badly in HS, leading to elbow and shoulder injuries, then came back quickly and was forced into a heavier workload than you’d want for someone with his history.

Josh: Zach Plesac have a chance to be a mid rotation type or more back end?
Keith Law: That sounds like his range of outcomes, barring injury.

mark: If Vaughn is the only “top 6” hitter left at 6 , who do you think the Padres take?
Keith Law: They should take him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed for Lodolo and the Reds took Vaughn.

Hank: Biggio is coming up, and he wasn’t on your top 100. He has good numbers, but I know you say not to scout the stat lines. So what is it about him that you (and others) feel sets him apart from others with similar numbers, and what can we expect in the majors?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him a lot and he has never hit decent quality pitching. It’s dead-pull power, not a good feel to hit, with a passive approach, and he has no real position.

Alex Failla: Has Kevin Newman recaptured the magic he had at the Cape? Bat has looked good this year, and he looks smooth at SS. I know, SSS, but it’s been promising. I feel he’s been overlooked.
Keith Law: I was always a fan, so I’m probably too inclined to say yes … but yes.

Paul Q: It is fairly common in the other Big 3 professional leagues for a college coach to make the leap to the pro’s. Would that ever be feasible in baseball, and if so, who are some of the coaches you think are potentially most capable?
Keith Law: Several college pitching coaches have done so recently and I think that’s the most likely pipeline, rather than head coaches, who make a lot of money at top colleges and may not see the benefit.

TP: Kevin Cron a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: No, just a guy.

Jeff: Do you think rushing a guy like Ryan Wagner to the bigs hurt his career or it was bound to happen? Thank you!
Keith Law: He was a blowout risk from the start, so moving him quickly was a good idea, but he had about 9 minor league innings before he reached the majors – because the GM at the time was trying to not get fired – and that part did hurt him.

Timothy: Sorry if I missed it but did you give your thoughts on Stewart going to Japan?
Keith Law: Yes, on Buster’s podcast. Until Stewart signs a contract, this is all hypothetical – and could be posturing. I want to see the draft abolished, but I don’t think this is the right test case, and I believe Stewart is walking away from a non-guaranteed but potentially much higher payday in the US. He would benefit far more from going into an MLB farm system and getting the coaching he needs – he regressed badly this spring, in part a function of going to a JC without any track record of developing players because he could stay at home, and a pro system would likely straighten him out (literally!) in short order.

Alan: Any chance Mets could go underslot at 12 and float Leiter to round 2?
Keith Law: If the rumored ask for Leiter is true, then no. I’ve heard he might only consider the Yanks or Mets, or that he wants a top 5 bonus, or that he’s unsignable at any price.

Chad: I remember you not being high on Ryu when he first came over. Was that a miss or has something changed that has allowed him to pitch like an ace since coming back from injury last year?
Keith Law: He’s thrown a lot harder here (when healthy) than he did there or even when I saw him that first spring training, when he was working 87-90.
Keith Law: Didn’t one of the other Dodgers pitchers also teach him a curveball? I have a vague recollection of that. He was a big changeup guy in Korea.

Matt: Since reaction time slows when you age, do you think the day is coming where it will be rare to see a player over 30? At some point, pitchers are throwing too hard for the hitter to react in time.
Keith Law: It’s already starting to happen. Rare might overstate it, but this is becoming more and more a young hitter’s game.

Eric: Man, Keith, you totally got got by that guy trying to Old Takes Expose you by saying [checks notes] … Gleyber Torres was the second-best prospect in all of baseball when he was 20?
Keith Law: That was a strange one. Don’t people know Fred (the guy behind OTE) is pretty sharp, and tries to highlight the most egregious takes?

BigDaddeh: Is this version of Joey Gallo real?
Keith Law: The .400+ BABIP won’t last but as an above-average to star-level offensive player, yeah, I’m in.

Tone Deaf: How about the Cubs starting Addison Russell on Women’s Empowerment Night.
Keith Law: The most tone-deaf of all.

Josh: Thank you for never sticking to sports
Keith Law: You’re welcome. It sort of amazes me when (a small fraction of) people think you can separate sports from the rest of the world. Sports encompasses politics, race, gender, economics, even a little science. There are no silos any more.
Keith Law: Maybe there never were.

Blake F: Usually in the draft, the Nationals like to go for players who have dropped a little due to injury and chase their ceiling. But I can’t see an obvious candidate for that at #17, so where do you see them going in round one?
Keith Law: Next mock will be Tuesday but I think there will be enough famous, higher-ceiling guys around for that pick that they’ll get a typical Nats guy.

Brian: The Phillies system seems to be off to a rough start. But are there any players who you have heard good things about in the first two months?
Keith Law: Unfortunately the answer was Spencer Howard but he’s still on the IL.

AJ: Which 2nd base prospect do you think will stick this year – Biggio or Urias?
Keith Law: Biggio isn’t a 2b.

BigDaddeh: What’s the deal with this Callihan that the Yankees are connected to? Seems like a stocky LH hitter with no real defensive position?
Keith Law: One of the best pure hit tools in the class. Stocky might be misleading – he’s strong, and not fat or heavy or anything.

paul q: Niche request, but who are some of the top prospects coming out of the AAC this year and what are their landing spots?
Keith Law: Hoese could get into the first round, very likely top 40. Brickhouse and Feoli should go in rounds 3-4.
Keith Law: (I had to look at the list of AAC schools. I’ll never keep that conference straight.)

Paul: On the earlier question about Vlad, would the front office ever relay to a manager not to bench a certain player – or advise them to bench that player on the road?
Keith Law: Of course. All the time.

Joe: Martin Pérez? Real or fake?
Keith Law: I think the breakout is real. Using that cutter like a third of the time (HT to Aaron Gleeman for tweeting that stat) and it’s a legit weapon for him – especially since his lack of a real average breaker was always a problem.

Eric: If you were Rick Hahn/Nick Hostetler and Adley and Witt were off the board, who would you select?
Keith Law: Vaughn. Big gap between him and next best available player.

Dylan: Does Gilolito getting it back together cement your status as not just a genius but certainly a very stable genius at that?
Keith Law: I’m very calm. Aren’t I calm? Dylan, tell them I was calm.

Rick: I’m having my “no more kids” surgery next week and figured that weekend would be a good time to start getting back into reading. What are a couple of good, immersive/enthralling books you’ve read over a few-day span recently that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Shame Alex Speier’s book Homegrown isn’t out yet – I just tore through it in about 36 hours. Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry and John Carreyrou’s Bad Blood are two of the best books I’ve read this year.

Adam: We got Pandemic, got Catan, got Ticket to Ride – family loves all of them. What’s the next family game to get?
Keith Law: Splendor, Azul, Stone Age (longer playing time), 7 Wonders (I think you need kids to be at least 10 to grasp it).

Joe: Too early to give up on Austin Hays?
Keith Law: I don’t want to, but he looked terrible rehabbing here with Frederick.

jbar: Higher upisde, Michael Busch or Logan Davidson?
Keith Law: Davidson has more upside but I would pick Busch.

Eric: Bundy’s high school coach is who should be to blame, right?
Keith Law: Yes, but his father has to take some of that too – especially when, at the time, he would talk openly about how durable Dylan was.

Ridley Kemp: ’bout time The Verve got some love (and money).

As an unabashed fan of Good Omens, I have to ask: Did you laugh when you got to the bit about the four other bikers of the apocalypse? That one gives me the giggles every time.
Keith Law: Yep, that was a bit of genius. The book is a little uneven, unsurprising with two authors and a bit of a slapdash premise, but there are some parts that are really brilliant.

RJ: In the scenario where Vaughn falls to Detroit, I assume you’d take him over Greene?
Keith Law: Yes. I would probably take Adley 1, and then if he’s gone, Vaughn would be the next name I’d take over anyone. When I posted my top 100 this Tuesday, that is my best approximation of what my board might look like if I ran a draft room (bearing in mind that an actual scouting director would have seen all of the candidates for his first pick, and has an entire team of scouts plus an R&D department to help build that board, not just me playing pretend).

Ryan: Has Biggio changed something this year to lower his k%? Is it real?
Keith Law: Yeah, he got to AAA where the ball is different and lots of not very good hitters are going off.

Dave: If you could un-do one prospect injury from the last 10 years and see how the player would have turned out, which would it be?
Keith Law: I will always wonder what Fernando Martinez’s career would have looked like without the leg injury/issue that more or less ended his career.

HankQQ: Braves at 9. If not hunter bishop, who do you think they would take?
Keith Law: Corbin Carroll. Could be a wild-card third name in there, I’ll hold that till Tuesday because I’m not that certain.

Michael: Could you explain the logic behind why you would want to bat your best hitter at #2? I get that it is the most optimal, but is it just because it maximizes the number of plate appearances as well as having runners on base for them to drive in?
Keith Law: That’s quite a good summary.

jay_B: Albert Almora seems to be swinging for the fences a lot more this season. Think he can be a league average bat to go with his solid CF glove, maybe a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the logic I had in mind when putting him on my breakout list. His breakout has really just been a few weeks, though, so I don’t want to get too confident.

Jack: Has Owen Miller in the Padres system registered anywhere on your radar? All the kid does is hit wherever he goes. I know many of his tools seem average, but it feels like he could be a solid utility player at the next level.
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my Padres’ farm report in January.

Andrew: I know you don’t eat beef anymore Keith but what’s the best way to cook beef or pork ribs?
Keith Law: Smoke.

Noah D: What do the Brewers do with Huira when Shaw comes back from the DL?
Keith Law: I’d rather play Hiura ROS than Shaw.

Ryan: Soooo are you still worried about Austin Riley’s bat speed? Or has your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: Soooo are you saying a week of games should change my opinion? People who rush to gotcha anyone over this tiny a sample must have just started watching baseball in the last few days. Junior Lake had a pretty good first week too, as I recall. (Austin Riley is a real prospect; Lake wasn’t. Riley was on my top 100 this winter and Lake might not have made a top 500.)

Andrew: Do you buy guys that are older ages in high school tend to bust more?
Keith Law: If they bust more, the difference in bust frequency is small, and you risk missing some pretty good players if you just dispense with all 19+ high schoolers.

Andrew: I have an anxiety disorder since my diagnosis of bipolar disorder and with my main medication, I’ve been given an anti-anxiety medication to help me not feel anxious all the time. The only problem is that they make me drowsy and I haven’t taken it in years. Should I stop tryna find ways to deal with my anxiety head on (Toastmasters/cold showers) or take the anti-anxiety medication daily?
Keith Law: That’s really a question for your doctor and/or psychiatrist. I do take anti-anxiety medication and tried several, including varying doses, until I got to a combination of efficacy and minimum side effects that I could live with.

Noah D: Can Jung from Tech rise up much more than in the 20s and teens where he is currently projected?
Keith Law: Don’t think so.

Bill: Love your stuff. Rhulman 20 recommendation was a game changer. My question is: why are there any yankee fans who dislike Cashman? He rarely gets burned in trades and he seems to repeatedly discover cast offs.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Don’t you also have to credit their R&D strength and the player development machine that takes those castoffs and some unconventional-looking prospects and turns them into valuable big leageurs or trade pieces to him? He oversaw the construction of this organization.

Mike: How soon after the end of the draft can the remaining free agents be signed by teams without giving up draft compensation? Like, immediately after the last pick or midnight, the next business day, etc?
Keith Law: I think after the draft ends on the 5th.
Keith Law: I’m not totally sure.

Warren G: In a previous article you mentioned that Corbin Carroll’s arm doesn’t project to average, but Perfect Game has him recorded as having hit 91 from the OF. This is not intended to be a gotcha question, but I’m curious what about his throwing has led you to believe that it will not reach average. Is it lack of carry? Velocity? Accuracy? Thanks for all your draft work.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that. Sorry.

Paul: You weren’t as high on Andres Gimenez as others, but do you think he’s better than what he is currently showing?
Keith Law: He’s only 20 in AA – can’t give up on him yet. The slow start shows a tiny bit of my concern about his lack of ceiling, but it’s also less than two months and he’s so young.

Alex: Let’s take the prospect injury question and expand it to any player, any era of baseball. Who do you wish had stayed healthy? I’d have loved to have seen Eric Davis meet his potential.
Keith Law: Brien Taylor.

Michael: Hey Keith- What should the Phillies do with Nick Williams? Does he have any trade value whatsoever at this point?
Keith Law: Almost no trade value there.

Seth: If Bart were in this draft where would you have him ranked?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the 6-10 range, as opposed to around 12 where I believe i had him last year.

Nate in Seattle: Wondering your take on Corbin Burnes struggles. Knowing your success rate with breakout guys, Will he start the 2020 all star game?
Keith Law: Heh. Giolito was a breakout pick for me in 2018, so maybe?

Jay: On Busters’ podcast, you mentioned that scouts don’t like dealing with Vanderbilt. Why is that?
Keith Law: They complain they have a hard time getting access to players (which is part of the scouts’ jobs) and that seating behind the plate for scouts is very limited (true, although the park is small). I will say that they have always treated me very well, going back over a decade now. This is the first time in ages I didn’t go to Nashville to see them at home – I saw Bleday on the road, along with Austin Martin, who looks like a top ten pick for next year.

Soto: As great as Paddack has been in 2019…..Can he continue to succeed with only a fastball and a changeup?

Only throwing his curve 7-8 times a game.
Keith Law: I think so. 7 change, 7 command, 6 fastball, just a show-me breaker. Rare package, but it works.

Jake Lawson: The Rangers should be looking to move Minor at the deadline, right? What sort of return do you think Daniels should be looking for?
Keith Law: I say yes. Could get two prospects for him, right?

Michael: Do you have any thoughts on the use of cbd to treat anxiety?
Keith Law: If you believe it works, go for it. Clinical evidence is lacking.

FunInTheSun: Best sophomore or 2020 draft eligible player in college baseball?
Keith Law: Lot of candidates. Two named Martin – Austin I mentioned, Robby at Florida State (whoops, see below). Torkelson. Wilcox and Hancock at Georgia, Wilcox better for me right now. Saw Mitch Abel at the Future Stars event in Arizona over Labor Day and he’s a GUY. So is Zac Veen. JT Ginn is draft-eligible next year. I’m probably missing ten guys, too, since I don’t typically look a year ahead – those are mostly guys I’ve seen myself plus a few I’ve heard about from scouts. It looks *loaded*.

Steve: “Gotcha” people might be the worst. I feel like they are very unhappy in their lives.
Keith Law: It’s one of the worst parts of Twitter for me personally, although as a straight, white, cis male, I don’t get a fraction of the abuse some other folks get. But still, if that’s your instinct, to come be obnoxious to me because i didn’t sufficiently praise your favorite team’s prospect, save your breath.

Ricky Dempsey: My brother is very liberal and is all about letting his child make its own decisions (he gives the child clothes and toys targeted to both genders to play with). He wants to give his child the choice of whether he should be vaccinated. The child is almost 2 now. What is do you think is the best way to talk to discuss vaccination this with him without being offputting and infringing upon the child?
Keith Law: Point out to your brother that the child can only make that choice later if he’s not dead.
Keith Law: Also, it’s the fucking responsibility of a parent to make that choice.

Jessica: Robby Martin is a freshman at FSU and not draft eligible until 2021
Keith Law: Yep, you’re right, thanks. De Sedas too. Had Robby on the brain because I just edited the video I shot of him an hour ago. He can hit.

Ken (Cleveland): Very strange question but it is an issue I am thumbing through in my head. I consider myself somewhat of a blend between a conservative and liberal whatever that really means today. I believe in fiscal responsibility but I believe in investing in long term social programs that work to help those who need assistance. I am pro-choice and believe governments shouldn’t own our bodies. However, in a certain sense, they do. Prostitution is illegal. Ingestion of certain drugs is illegal. Mostly suicide and assisted suicide is illegal. Selling a kidney to pay for a surgery to save your child’s life is illegal. Literally, the government (if they brought back the draft) could force you to fight and die for your country or otherwise jail you. To me, the government clearly owns our bodies. Based on that, although again I am very pro-choice for an individual even if my own personal choice is pro-life, why should abortion be legal when these other things aren’t from an owning your body perspective.
Keith Law: The things you cite as illegal aren’t signs that the government “owns our bodies” but that we have a 250-year history of legislating morality. Why shouldn’t sex work be legal, as long as all parties are consenting? If we took the resources spent on arresting, trying, and imprisoning sex workers, and put that towards stopping sex trafficking, who would be worse off?

Gus (Portland, ME): I read at the beginning of the season about Trejyn Fletcher maybe being a 1st rounder. Now I see he’s maybe at the bottom of a top 100, if ranked at all. Did his move back to Maine cause the drop or something else?
Keith Law: He was never that kind of prospect. Not sure where that sort of hype started. Anyway, I think he ends up at school.

Tom: Does ASU have any legitimate MLB prospects on its roster besides Bishop?
Keith Law: Torkelson for next year. Marsh should go rounds 3-5 this year.
Keith Law: Time to wrap this up to write some things and also go out to dinner with my daughter – we are celebrating both of our birthdays tonight, since mine falls right before the draft (thanks, MLB) and hers was the night before my last trip and a crack-of-dawn flight. I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. Please don’t drive if you drink, and if you drive, be extra careful on the roads. I’ll be back with a mock draft Tuesday and another chat on Thursday. Thank you as always for reading.