You can pre-order my new book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Can Tell Us About Ourselves, now through any bookstore.

Keith Law: I am unwilling to uncover my eyes. Klawchat.

Tony: It seems pretty interesting to me that all the coaches the Phillies fired this year (Young, Mallee, Kapler) have either immediately new work or seem to be on the verge of new work. Makes me think that maybe it wasn’t the coaching that was the issue in Philadelphia
Keith Law: I wondered if the Kapler dismissal, at least, was from ownership, not baseball operations. It came far later than a GM would ordinarily like to make such a change, and during the season I never heard anything from their front office that made me think Kapler’s job was in jeopardy.

Royal Pains: You referenced seeing Erick Pena, last week in the chat. Any initial thoughts other than the advanced physique? And being forever away
Keith Law: Not really. I saw one instructs game and wrote him up briefly on ESPN.com, but I don’t want to draw big conclusions from a few at bats in a barely-game from a 16-year-old, either.

Nate: Keith, accepting the QO for Jose Abreu is a no-brainer, right?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jeffrey : Did Tony Clark overreact? Is this sounding like a bad divorce where if somebody sneezes looks at you the wrong way it’s time to close the lawyers? Is this good for baseball? Kind of fans have their say at the table when all is set between labor and management?
Keith Law: I did not read Anthopoulos’ comments as indicative of collusion – it sounds like a GM describing the typical due diligence he would do with the GM meetings coming up. You call other GMs and ask what their plans are to try to see if you might line up on any trades. “Hey, we have extra starters we’d part with in a deal for X, and you have needs in your rotation. Do you plan to fill those via trades or free agency?” That’s not collusion. Asking if another GM intends to bid on Gerrit Cole would be collusion, of course, or even asking how much they might have budgeted to spend on free agent starters would, but I didn’t read the comments like that at all.

Mike: Favorite book and movie of all time?
Keith Law: My favorite book of all time hasn’t changed. As for movies, I don’t have a single, clear favorite. Many I love and recommend, but it’s hard for me to compare watching Double Indemnity and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Amelie. They’re all such different experiences, and Double Indemnity didn’t have the technical advantages of the latter two.

Dan: Favorite razor / shaving cream?
Keith Law: That’s a fun one. I’m boring, though: Gillette Mach whatever razors, Nivea shave gel. And I only shave about every week and a half.

Nate: Keith, will you put out a draft prospect watch list before the season?
Keith Law: Yes.

Sean : Hi Keith, I have a question that I hope isn’t getting too personal.. I know you have mentioned your anxiety before.. I also deal with anxiety quite often – maybe not as much as someone else but still feel like it still takes over a good portion of my life. What are some ways you have found work for you to combat with your anxiety?
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned this acronym before, EMMET: Exercise, Medication, Meditation, Eating, Therapy. That’s not in order but it’s easy to remember. I would say therapy is probably the most important component, and it’s possible that that’s most of what you need. I just would emphasize that you shouldn’t resist medication like I did for years – my life is substantially better across the board since I started taking a low dose of an SSRI.

JJ: No chance Chaim Bloom can trade David Price this off-season, right? Some media types in Boston are playing up an idea that the Rangers might be interested, but I can’t see a reason why any team would be interested in paying $32 million a year for the next three years for his past glory.
Keith Law: His elbow would be the obstacle. I can’t see how the Red Sox could effectively insulate the acquiring team from the risk of Price’s elbow blowing up.

Jacob: Is there an Ivy League school you would discourage your child from attending?
Keith Law: No. They’re all good schools, and they all confer positive name value on graduates in just about any field that might matter – academic, corporate, nonprofit. The biggest reason to go to an expensive private school is either the value of its name or the network of contacts you develop there. I don’t think the typical private school is providing that much higher quality of an education, and your child will likely have a great social experience at less expensive schools. But elite colleges have brand equity that makes a tangible difference.

Ken: How’s your Josh Ritter fandom coming along? He is my favorite live performer.
Keith Law: I’m not a fan, sorry.

Sven Goindon: Hi Keith: where do you think Dellin Betances ends up next year and what kind of contract do you think he’ll get, given he missed all but 2/3 of an inning this season. Thanks.
Keith Law: I imagine a one-year, incentive-laden deal. $2-4 million base, chance to get to $10MM if he’s healthy all year?

Jackie: Anybody catch your eye on the “Modern Era” ballot for the HOF? I would say that the Harold Baines selection last winter really lowered the bar to an unacceptable level, so it would probably be for the best if the veterans’ committee only selected Marvin Miller, just to restore a level of exceptionalism to the player’s side of things.
Keith Law: Whitaker and Evans belong in the Hall, as does Miller. Don’t let the Baines fiasco hurt players who are truly deserving.

xxx(yyy): any major changes expected to your cooking gift guide this year?
Keith Law: Tools, no, but cookbooks yes. I think the biggest addition to my cooking gear of the last 12 months is an Ooni outdoor pizza oven, which I absolutely love, but which isn’t exactly a necessity.

Bruce: Reynaldo Lopez has a few brilliant starts each year that give you hope and then follows that up with a bunch of awful starts. Can he be a reliable starter or should he be in the pen?
Keith Law: I’ve always maintained he needed to go to the bullpen. His delivery is tough to repeat – it’s similar to Severino’s, so I suppose there’s some injury risk too – and he doesn’t have a viable way to get LHB out.

Heather: Which team should offer the most for Mookie Betts this winter, regardless of the fact that he’s definitely hitting the FA market after next season?
Keith Law: A team trying to contend right now that would probably be on the outside looking in if they don’t acquire someone of Betts’ caliber. San Diego, the White Sox, and the Mets all fit. The Cubs would too, but if the Red Sox want young pitching, as I suspect they do, that’s not a fit.

Gene: Kieth, I wanted to ask for clarification regarding your opinion on Buck Showalter. I am a regular reader, an occasional submitter, and, generally, like minded with your opinions in most cases, but I don’t understand your feelings regarding Showalter. I know from past comments that you feel he is an old school instinct coach rather that committed to data application, and you have also voice concern regarding his use of pitchers like Bundy. The Bundy thing always stuck with me because he seemed to have been damaged in high school and travel ball from over use. After the arm injury in the minors, I thought the O’s were just trying to get what they could out of a perishable commodity. While I never understood some of the things the O’s did with pitching prospects during his tenure, the side of the rubber or the insistence of having pitchers shelving the pitches that got them drafted in favor of the FB, CH, CB, repertoires, I wasn’t sure how much of that was on Buck or was organizational.
Keith Law: That was entirely on Buck, as was some of went wrong with the use of Hunter Harvey and Cody Sedlock, as well as the constant messing with Kevin Gausman’s and Jake Arrieta’s positions on the mound, and some other stuff that I’ve heard on background that involved coaches Buck employed. Maybe he’d be different the next time around, but I can’t look at his tenure in Baltimore without noting how young pitchers failed to develop under him.

xxx(yyy): what happened with Jurickson Profar? Literally had the lowest BABIP of any qualified hitter in 2019, and one of the 4 lowest of the last 10 years. While there is hope for some level of bounce back is he cooked?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for that, other than to say I was floored by the low BABIP. Maybe the shoulder isn’t fully healed, or he’s pulling his punches out of fear of reinjury? Either way, if that doesn’t improve in 2020, he’s probably done.

Alex: More viable market for an MLB franchise: Tampa or Montreal?
Keith Law: Tampa, but not with a stadium in St. Petersburg.

brett: when will you start your offseason articles series’?
Keith Law: Prospect stuff? End of January/early February.

@Tepper: Has your opinion changed at all on Willie Calhoun? Seems like he acquitted himself OK in his first year in the Majors…
Keith Law: .323 OBP for a well below-average defensive LF who probably needs to DH. 93 outfielders had 600+ innings in the field in 2019; Calhoun’s UZR ranked him 85th, and his dRS was worse.

Steve: Will Harris should also take his QO, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brett: Do you still believe in Corbin Burnes as a SP? He was electric in his first year as a RP but was lost this year. Brewers need him to pan out as a SP?
Keith Law: I do, if he’s healthy. Also heard of a small mechanical flaw the Brewers are hoping to fix … we’ll see if that comes to anything.

HH: Is Triston McKenzie still progressing? I don’t see him talked about much at all anymore.
Keith Law: He missed all of 2019 due to injury.

Nash: Mr.Law, has Twins pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic propelled himself onto your radar?
Keith Law: He was already on my radar.

Pat D: I remember you had a harsh view of the current committees for HOF voting. I think that their ballot for this year has 4 guys who I could easily vote for (Evans, Simmons, Whitaker, Miller). Is it at least a decent ballot in your view?
Keith Law: Agreed, and I wouldn’t object to Simmons getting in.

Jacob Zaldin: What do you think is the biggest problem around the league right now? Do you think that the Nationals winning the WS and the subsequent articles ran about their use of old-fashioned scouting over analytics will affect how other teams operate?
Keith Law: I think those subsequent articles were about 90% bullshit, so, no, I don’t think so.

Tracy: Yan Gomes not in your Top 50 FA. Was your list compiled before the Nats declined his option or is he not in your top 50 b/c he’s not that good?
Keith Law: He’s not that good. I considered everyone with an option for the list and adjusted if I guessed wrong (I had Quintana on the list, for one).

Eric: Favorite something/other?
Keith Law: Oh definitely other. Big fan of other.

Hubert: Hi Keith, I was wondering how do you assess the Rays front office after the departure of Chaim Bloom?
Keith Law: He’s great, and I think he’ll do great things in Boston, but the Rays’ front office is very strong down into scouting and R&D and I think they can weather the loss.

Brandon J: I’m not suggesting that the dodgers don’t “go for it” every year, but if you were running the team, would you blast past the CBT to make a couple of big signings this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Do you think Odorizzi gets signed to a long term deal with the draft pick penalty or is he a player better off taking the QO?
Keith Law: I would be concerned if he doesn’t get a long-term deal. That would feel suspicious to me.

Dave: Do you have a favorite album of 2019 or one you’re particularly looking forward to in 2020?
Keith Law: I will do my annual best albums of the year post in December; I have several candidates, with a bunch of new ones hitting the last few weeks (Alcest, White Reaper, Michael Kiwanuka).

AA: If you are the Braves would you rather sign Donaldson for 3 years or trade something like Fried and Wright for Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: I’m a big Fried booster so if that’s the requirement, I’d probably pay Donaldson. If they could trade Wright and two other pitchers below Fried, sure.

Jon V : What’s your view on Oscar Mercado? Can he take another step forward next year or was this year a peak performance type year? How about another reclamation project in Daniel Johnson? Indians seem to have quantity but maybe not quality in the OF
Keith Law: Mercado’s a starter in the long run, IMO, while I think Johnson is a fourth outfielder or platoon guy.

Jay: Any thoughts on why the Yankees didn’t give Didi a QO? Seemed strange he didn’t get one, and I feel like I’m missing something.
Keith Law: Same. Didn’t understand that at all.
Keith Law: Like, if he takes it, so what – isn’t one year of a healthy Gregorius at that salary a valuable commodity in trade?

BuccoFan: You worked with Tony LaCava in Toronto. Would he be a good fit as the Pirates GM? A lot rumors about him in the media
Keith Law: Yes, he absolutely would.

Dave: Your piece on the minor league realignment proposal indicated that you were (at least) sympathetic to the idea that the overall population size of the minor leagues is currently too large. From a baseball standpoint, do you have a sense of your ideal minor league population size (and, how that compares to now)? Clearly you’d want a population large enough to occasionally hit on ‘diamonds-in-the-rough’ or late bloomers, but not so large that (for instance) I’m pitching to your elite hitting prospects; but I don’t know how to go about figuring that out.
Keith Law: I don’t have a specific league/system size in mind, other than believing the current system is too large … we don’t need the Appy/Pioneer Level at all, although I think the Rockies should be mandated to add an AZL team in that case. I’d be fine with losing that level and having every MLB org have seven teams: DSL, complex, short-season, A, A+, AA, AAA. But I think some minor league contraction would also be a function of changing demographics and market sizes. Not every town with a team is capable of supporting that team at a financially sustainable level.

greg: what was your major in school and did you know what you were doing when you went in?
Keith Law: I started out as a government major (like political philosophy), switched to a joint sociology/economics major in my third semester, and I would say I still don’t actually know what I’m doing.

Noah: You know that Emmet is Hebrew for “truth”, right?
Keith Law: I did not know that, since I speak no Hebrew at all. Thanks.

Chuck: Is Tork going #1 or do the Tigers load up on pitching with Hancock?
Keith Law: You left out option C, which might be Austin Martin, or perhaps another candidate like JT Ginn if the changeup he’s flashed in the fall is still there when he starts.

Dave: As a relatively new subscriber, I’m enjoying the newsletter so far. Have you considered a section on what you’ve been cooking lately (specific dish, ingredient, technique)? I tend to enjoy your culinary content!
Keith Law: Good idea, thank you.

Morris: My parents never hit me, and I turned out fine
Keith Law: Funny how we don’t hear that line – it’s always the people who were spanked or otherwise received corporal punishment who insist they’re okay.

Zach D: So republicans don’t like the AZ election results because a democrat won when AZ is a “conservative State” because metro areas rule the elections. I can’t keep up with their nonsense anymore.
Keith Law: Vote them all out. There is no other solution; if they think this strategy keeps them in office, they will continue to pursue it. That’s only rational.

Scott: Austin Riley had an odd year. What do you ultimately see as his big league role?
Keith Law: Extra guy.

Jacob Z: What do you think is a good path to get into the industry? Is it really Ivy league/big name school or bust?
Keith Law: Data science. That’s where the jobs are.

Chuck: Does Josiah Gray make double digit starts for LA next year?
Keith Law: How about 2021 for that?

Sok: How egregious is it that Larry Walker is on his 10th HOF ballot? Guy was an absolute stud
Keith Law: I will vote for him; I think he’s deserving. Decent shot since it’s his last year and we did clear a few names last offseason. I have pondered my ballot and there’s a nonzero chance I’ll leave at least one spot blank. There are about eight definites, and then it falls off into borderline guys.

Sam: If you were the Yankees, would you rather give Cole a deal in the 7yr/$245M (35M/yr) range or give Wheeler and Odorizzi each a 4 year deal with a combined annual value of 35M/yr?
Keith Law: Cole. I mean, option 2 isn’t bad, but I think they need the frontline guy for the regular season AND postseason.

Vandal Cunningham: The Braves are allegedly prioritizing a front-line starter, but they’ll surely be out on Cole / Stras, and Bumgarner doesn’t fall into that category. Who can they realistically target? Is Syndergaard an option?
Keith Law: They’re well-positioned to acquire someone in trade rather than free agency (can’t imagine Liberty letting them go get one of those top SP).

Sam: As a Mets fan, am I crazy for wanting them to sign Gregorius and move McNeil to 3B and Rosario to 2B?
Keith Law: No. The one downside I would see is that you might stop Rosario’s development at SS – he was much better in the second half, and I think he can do it long-term.

Ira: Should the MLB have a spending floor to force teams to at least pretend to be competitive while also not letting them take advantage by collecting revenue sharing w/o spending money?
Keith Law: I don’t like the straight salary floor idea, which would provide incentive for teams to pay for veterans who aren’t necessarily any better than the younger players they’d be replacing. I would prefer a system that says, “OK, you can field whatever team you want, but if your total payroll for this year falls below $FLOOR, you pay the rest into a union fund that the PA would distribute to unsigned free agents.” That would solve the problem of teams just pocketing shared revenue without asking anyone to field a worse team just to spend more money.

Roger: Can’t too much go wrong with young pitching for the Red Sox to be like, “Ian Anderson is the main piece for Betts.” Wouldn’t they be better off getting Waters, if not Pache?
Keith Law: If your question is just position player vs pitcher, then yes, better to get the position player, all else being equal. In this case, the Red Sox have a more acute need for starting pitching than anything else, though.

Josh G.: current book you are reading? side note: how many books do you read at a time?
Keith Law: Usually one book/ebook and one audiobook at a time. I’m reading Mary Robinette Kowal’s The Calculating Stars and listening to Safiya Noble’s Algorithms of Oppression.
Keith Law: I think my next read will be The Cloven, the last book of the Vorrh trilogy.

Connor: You wrote “inconsistent arm swing” in George Kirby’s writeup in the top 100 draft prospects. Is that something that, if unaddressed/unchanged, you think will negatively affect his command?
Keith Law: Yes, that is the #1 concern with an inconsistent delivery.

Zach D: How is releasing a whistler blowers name not illegal? And now republicans plan to subpoena the individual in a public hearing. What a s-show
Keith Law: This is the world we chose in 2016.

Jeff: Just a Reds fan, reading an old Klaw article from 2012 with my “Insider” account. “Votto’s 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack“
Keith Law: I don’t even remember saying that, so thank you.

Millennium Sports: Hearing LHP Dan Tillo is up to 98 with a wipeout slider for Team USA. He a DUDE for you?
Keith Law: Wrote about him after seeing him in the AFL, where he was throwing harder than I’d ever seen (not 98, IIRC).

Eric: How sad that Bill Gates is so worried he may have to live on $8 billion dollars vs. $108 billion if Elizabeth Warren is elected, right?!
Keith Law: The struggle is real, my friends.

Matthew : Does caffeine help with memory and studying?
Keith Law: I sure hope so!

Josh G.: when is the next periscope happening?
Keith Law: I do not schedule those … it’s a matter of having the time, and the quiet around here.

Max: The Astros should be all over Jon Gray, right?
Keith Law: Did I suggest that last week? I feel like I did.

Geraldo: I have the flu and feel like crap. Tell me something good about the Giants to temporarily relieve my pain.
Keith Law: I have a lot of trust in Farhan to modernize this org and get them moving forward again.

Dan W.: Any thoughts on what happened at Deadspin and/or on the next best way forward for those of us who relied on it?
Keith Law: Follow those writers to their new spots, and read what they write. Also, pay for some content, somewhere. You probably pay for mine if you’re here, and I appreciate that. I pay for the Athletic, Baseball America, the Washington Post, and the New Yorker, plus a cooking magazine or two (Bon Appetit, at the moment). I want to support writers i like, and to support good journalism, period. The best way to do that is with my wallet.

Ryan: How is Wingspan as a 2 player game? My wife and I love Azul, which has been our first real venture into boards, so I’m wondering if Wingspan is worth the purchase or if I should go for 7W Duel instead, thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: Wingspan works well with 2, but 7WD is ‘optimized’ for two-player.

Portmantotebag: Can you give a Tigers fan any hope?
Keith Law: There’s some pitching coming.

OC Joe: Did you have any reaction to MLB’s proposal of a free agent multi-year deadline this winter, which would have come…I believe sometime in mid-December?
Keith Law: The dumbest fucking idea of the year … in a year of some DFIs. Teams would just refrain from offering multi-year deals till after the deadline.

Dave: Scale of 1-10, what’s your excitement for Rise of Skywalker?
Keith Law: 3 or 4.

GF: is there a way to view all the articles you have written over at espn? i just subscribed to espn+ and would like to do some reading of yours but i can’t find a way to view prior posts
Keith Law: There is not an easy way to do that. I’m sorry.
Keith Law: I have asked for an index page that just lists all my pieces chronologically, but was told no.

Andy: Keith–I’m in the same boat at Chris P from last week’s chat. I would much rather read your top 50 FA list than, eg, someone’s who was repeatedly fired for unethical behaviour and doesn’t believe in using evidence. If you don’t jump elsewhere, eg The Athletic, and re-up with ESPN can you please negotiate to be able to send subscription-fee newsletter your Insider content to foreigners?
Keith Law: I am sorry about this as well.

Brian: Keith, we know the idea of “momentum” is bunk in baseball. I know you’re not a huge fan of other sports, but do you think it’s possible that it has an effect on the outcomes of games in other sports, or does the data suggest it’s total nonsense?
Keith Law: I would insist on seeing evidence before believing it is anything other than woo.

TomBruno23: It’s me again saying thanks once more for the book recs…blew through The Queen this week. What a crazy, crazy story interwoven with US Social Welfare Policy.
Keith Law: So, so good. Also, congrats to Tom Baxter, who won our giveaway of a signed copy of The Queen, provided by Josh Levin & his publisher.

Sam: Can you please explain why you ranked wheeler over bumgarner? Virtually the same age, wheelers injuries have been more prevalent and baseball related than madbums and the actual performance year over year favors madbum? Madbum seems like a much safer investment than wheeler.
Keith Law: Wheeler is way better right now. He had ~5 mph more on his FB, was worth about 1.5 more WAR last year, started more games and threw a lot more innings the last two years. I don’t think this is even a little controversial.

Dave: Just for general knowledge, the Ryan Thibs tracker is live https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!17003&ithin…
Keith Law: Excellent, great resource. I always make sure Ryan has my ballot.

Jose: Where do you have Nick Neidert’s ceiling at?
Keith Law: Fourth starter.

RAWagman: If the launch angle revolution is not largely a function of the juiced ball, what impact does that have on the importance of fielders? Thanks, and good luck with the new book
Keith Law: Doesn’t it make them more important? Balls are being hit harder, and more frequently as line drives.

Linus: During the writing of your new book- how much did you interview researchers, or were you primarily reliant on their publications?
Keith Law: My interviews were with baseball people. I exchanged emails with a few researchers – I can think of two immediately – but largely relied on their published papers so that interested readers could follow up and read them if so inclined.

TomBruno23: Your “this tweet just won the 1985 NL MVP” tweet made me smile. Talked with Dave Parker at a card show in STL several years ago and made a point to bring that voting up. “I’ve read where you think you’d be the HOF if Willie McGee hadn’t stolen your 1985 NL MVP.” “Yeah, that’s right. Where you at, McGee?” as he’s mock looking around the room.
Keith Law: I’m not sure if that gets him in the Hall, but it wouldn’t have hurt his case, at least.

TestaDuda: It’s not my money, but doing the math based on known revenue streams and free agent variables and it seems like the Red Sox should be going for it all this year and then trying to get under the tax AFTER 2020. If free agency of Betts, JDM (opt out) and JBJ aren’t enough, Price and Sale have chances to prove health (reducing underwriting on a trade) plus a new CBA all seem to make sliding under more conducive after 2020. Agree?
Keith Law: Here’s my counter to that: Who pitches? Price isn’t 100%, Sale isn’t 100%. Eovaldi wasn’t good. They have one decent, healthy starter right now, and nobody coming out of the system to help them. If they keep Betts, can they build a contending rotation through trades and free agency?

xxx(yyy): bottom of the 9th, 1 run lead in Game 7 of the World Series…do you prefer the best starting pitcher in baseball to come in for 1 inning (say G Cole? Scherzer?) or the best “relief” pitcher to come in for 1 inning (say J Hader) to close it out? Why?
Keith Law: Would depend on matchups (if you have LHB coming up, you want Hader) and how much rest everyone has had.

Ben: Do you think Carter Kieboom could be an every day starter next year?
Keith Law: At 2b, I’d say a strong possibility. I don’t see where else he could reasonably play.

Eric: At early look of the HOF ballot, I think a good ballot would be: Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, Rolen, Sheffield, Walker, Andruw, Helton, Manny
Keith Law: That’s not a bad ballot at all. You do have some of the borderline guys I struggle with, though.

Austin L.: also, favorite baseball book ever?
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm is pretty great, if dated now.
Keith Law: If you want something recent, Alex Speier’s Homegrown was a great picture of how the Red Sox built the 2018 team, with a lot of inside information from their scouts & player development folks.

scott: when does your espn contract expire?
Keith Law: In (checks calendar) 54 days.

Connor: Keith, any tips for pizza dough? Mine frequently comes out a little to dense for my liking
Keith Law: Dense sounds like you’re overworking it a bit. Also would check your hydration levels.

Rob: Thoughts on the new Opeth album? And are you listening in Swedish or English?
Keith Law: English, and I was very disappointed after the first track. Too proggy without the metal.

thatssotaguchi : A loud segment of the St. Louis Cardinals fan base is appalled that Mozeliak was just extended. Good move for the team or nah?
Keith Law: Yes, good move. Mozeliak has done a very good job, as has Girsch. I didn’t get the Shildt extension after we all just saw him playing Candyland and making Snitker & Martinez look like they were playing Gloomhaven.

Bruce: Will the Reds move Nick Senzel to second base?
Keith Law: I’d like to see that; I don’t think CF is a great fit for him, although I worry 2b isn’t going to do anything to keep him off the IL.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another Klawchat and hope to start my annual offseason dish posts (top 100 games, cooking posts, etc.) next week. Enjoy the long weekend!

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, will be out on April 21, 2020. You can pre-order it now on HarperCollins’ site.

I ranked the top 25 board games of the 2010s for Paste this week, and also wrote about some recent programming games, where players issue instructions as if they were writing code, over at Ars Technica.

Keith Law: Conquering the worm. Klawchat.

Joe Torre: No question…I just wanted to say Thank You to Anthony Rendon for bailing us out in Game 6
Keith Law: The umps got it right, though. The rule is pretty clear, and while it’s seldom invoked, the call on the field was correct – and not reviewable.

DF: Is the Pirates offense being held back by bad drafting or bad development? Picking guys with good bat to ball skills in the swing change era feels like to right approach to me, but it isn’t translating to the power numbers other teams are generating.
Keith Law: I think they had a development approach that gave up power for contact, but changed that last year.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Dodgers better off spending $200M+ on Cole than Rendon, right?
Keith Law: Not sure I agree – or disagree. Both would help.

Andy: To anyone who is happy about Deadspin dying: Do you work a job where a new boss came in, made a ton of changes that made the job less fun, less personal, and less profitable? Did you and your co-workers loudly complain about it, but ultimately did nothing? Well the writers of Deadspin didn’t. They left. It’s possible (even likely) to not agree with all the sites/writers decisions, and mourn the loss of a vibrant community somewhat related to sports.
Keith Law: Very well said. I wouldn’t say I liked all their content, or all of their writers, even. That is far from saying I don’t support them, or rue the absence of a site that revels in anti-authoritarian viewpoints.

Brian: Is the 2nd half of 2020 a realistic time frame to start seeing Lynch, Singer & Kowar brought up to the Royals or is 2021 more likely?
Keith Law: I expect them all to see the majors in 2020 if healthy.

TomBruno23: What should I tell my Royals friends who apoplectic with rage at the hiring of The Leader of Men?
Keith Law: … except that I’m not sure I want one of the worst tactical managers of the last decade doing anything with those young pitchers.

Tribe called jest: Better long term offensive profile, Abrams or Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: Lewis. But Abrams has more chance to play short.

Andy: I hope there’s a chapter in your next book about how teams make bad decisions based on interviews, instead of looking at the track record. I mean seriously, who can look at Matheny’s time at the Cardinals and think, that’s the guy who should be managing a young team?
Keith Law: Or any team, really. This is *such* a retrograde decision, and I think it’ll hold the Royals back for a while.

Karma1 Astros 0: Any chance for George Kirby to be more than a 4-5 starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Lone Star: Higher on Jung or Baty at the plate? I know Jung is a better bet at defensive value.
Keith Law: Baty. I don’t agree with that on Jung; both may end up at 1b.

Sam: How does Cole not get in the game last night? There were multiple high leverage spots they could have used him and saving him for the lead also made no sense. Is there anything to the argument you want him to start an inning clean and not bring him in middle inning with runners on?
Keith Law: This to me is the only thing Hinch did wrong last night. Cole should have been in the game sooner. But ultimately the failing was on the players; Harris is a great reliever and didn’t execute. (Also, Kendrick hit a pretty good pitch.) Harris gets that additional out and we’re not having this conversation.

Devon: True or False: the best part of the World Series was Trump and friends getting booed?
Keith Law: False. Although I think it’s perfectly fine that he was booed. The civility pearl-clutchers really lost their moral high ground when Trump mocked a disabled reporter.

Concerned Fan: What can MLB really do to the Astros about their pretty clear and brazen negative culture in their front office? Obviously they could dock them draft picks or apply some other punitive penalty, but how do you actually *fix* that?
Keith Law: I can’t agree with the premise – we don’t really know about their culture; I think you’re inferring something that might be true and it might not – but *IF* the culture is negative and pervasive, you target the people at the top who created and/or tolerated it.

Bruce: I’m a lover of non-fiction and have recently read a couple of books you reviewed including Bad Blood and Amity and Prosperity. Both were great – can you recommend any others that you enjoyed?
Keith Law: Just recently: Billion-Dollar Whale, The Queen, The Drunkard’s Walk, The Rise & Fall of the Dinosaurs, Big Chicken.

Bruce: Josh Hader for Corey Seager?
Keith Law: I would not trade Seager, a potential 7-WAR everyday player, for any reliever.

Braves: What do you think the Braves rotation looks like by mid-next year? Only three guys I feel (somewhat) confident in are Soroka, Fried, and Folty, but each have some red flags. Apparently Newcomb wants to try starting again, but where do you they the additional 2-3 starters they’ll need to get through the year come from?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t mind seeing them add an innings guy to back up that group, which could also include Touki or Wright or Wilson at some point.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe in Karma so the Nats win was not caused by Houston’s Taubman fiasco. But I have to admit to a little schadenfreude over the whole thing.
Keith Law: Agreed. The team that traded for Osuna, then proclaimed a “zero tolerance” policy on domestic violence, then taunted a reporter who took a strong, principled stand on the matter, lost, and the pitcher who recorded the last out for the other team is a two-time TJ recipient who was criticized for leaving the team to go attend to the birth of his child. Sometimes the story just works out.

Greg P: Klaw – will the balls be switching back to 2018 levels next year? Does MLB have any idea what their balls are doing?
Keith Law: So, we’re just not doing phrasing any more?
Keith Law: I get the sense MLB wants to restore the baseball’s physical characteristics to pre-2019 levels.

Steve: Have you read Poz’s Houdini book yet? Picked it up this week and it’s riveting so far.
Keith Law: Yes, tore through it in about four days. Really enjoyed it – but I just happen to really like Joe’s writing, too.

The Pirate Parrot: Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz for Archer? Who says no? ???
Keith Law: No takebacks!

Epsthoyet: Do I take a chance on an import and use only cash to get Shogo Akiyama to fill a couple of holes, or do I once again deplete my farm system and trade for Merrifield? I may have a cheaper and younger Merrifield on my team already in Hoerner though, no?
Keith Law: No idea if Merrifield is even available, but I wouldn’t trade multiple prospects for him. He’s helpful, but not the solution.

Nelson: Strasburg can do better than 4/100 on the market this winter, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

JR: Cole going to be well rested for opening day for his new team. Kidding aside, do you think Cole told the coaches he didn’t have it, or did AJ mess this up?
Keith Law: I did wonder if Cole said he couldn’t go – or even declined to pitch – and Hinch is covering for his guy. No idea, though.

Frank: We know the Giants are going to give bumgardner a QO. If you are them would you give one to Will Smith as well?
Keith Law: Probably not, but Smith is pretty good as relievers go. Just not sure he’s worth the QO salary.

Pat D: How much did this World Series increase the likelihood of robo-umps in the near future?
Keith Law: I hope by 1000%.

Mike: Will JD opt out?
Keith Law: I’m assuming yes.

Eric: Who’s reading the audio version of the new book?
Keith Law: Don’t know yet. I think we decided that in January last time around?

jack: I want to get into reading novels… any first suggestions?
Keith Law: Depends on what you like. I really got into reading in high school with science fiction, especially Asimov’s Foundation novels. They just spoke to me, but they might not speak to you. I imagine there’s a whole generation of readers out there who fell in love with books through Harry Potter.

Mike: With Brandon Marsh having a great fall league, where is he looking to be at in the Top 100?
Keith Law: Fall league performances don’t affect my rankings. He was already on the top 100, FYI.

XyXyX: What do you do this offseason if you are Texas? Houston is still a monster, they’ve got some interesting young players but they all have big questions, and the farm system is just so-so. Do you spend big this offseason with a new park opening up and try to build on a surprising 2019, or do you punt 2020 and look to contend again in 2021 or beyond?
Keith Law: Can’t imagine them punting, but I don’t think they can spend their way to contention in one offseason. Would imagine they’d make one big splash, to try to be more competitive in 2020, while also trying to build.

Mike: Weird question: need a good iPhone case — suggestions??
Keith Law: Not weird at all. I have an inexpensive case from tech21 that has protected my phone many times, plus a ZAGG screen protector (lifetime warranty, and I have absolutely used that feature).

HH: For those of us who will miss baseball until February: the Australian Baseball League is a nascent league with their season during US winters. They stream most games on youtube and it’s awesome to watch a league grow up before your eyes. Highly recommended (and I’m just a fan.)
Keith Law: Very true. Some MLB teams have sent prospects or fringe guys there to get them more playing time.

Raul: Obvs Cole and Stras make sense for the Padres. But so do Wheeler and Odorizzi. Do those types of arms push San Diego into WC contention if signed?
Keith Law: It’s all “yes if” for them. If Tatis Jr plays a full season, if Urias hits like he did throughout the minors, if one of their existing young starters takes a step forward, then they’re a player or two away from 90+ wins.

Zach D: So this is an overly simplified question, but which situation is better for manager – Mets or Phillies. (Roster, payroll, farm, ownership. Not media or family factors)
Keith Law: Philly.

Jon Coleman: You like the Bloom hire for Boston? How extreme do you think the makeover will be?
Keith Law: Love the hire. He’ll be great. I expect small changes at first, and never a big makeover.

Wamco: I cannot understand why people seem to hate Bryce Harper so much….why do you think that is?
Keith Law: I think because he was so good so young, and was kind of unapologetic about it. And now because he makes so much money. Those are not good reasons.

HeHateMeTeam: Do you ever get irritated about how intense people react to your opinions and preferences? Whether it’s your disinterest in The Sopranos or your preference for toolsy, high-ceiling prospects affecting minor differences in your rankings, people seem to go nuts over subjective topics.
Keith Law: Irritated is probably not the right word; flummoxed, maybe. Note that this almost never happens in person, though – it’s only online.

Paul: The Giants’ managerial search is “focused on” Joe Espada, Gabe Kapler, and Pedro Grifol (source: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/sources-giants-down-three-can…). Who gets your vote?
Keith Law: Big Kapler fan. He was the scapegoat in Philly, and definitely not the reason the team didn’t get to the playoffs this year. Has strong developmental experience too, which is a good fit for the Giants going forward.

E: Almost through Why We Sleep based on your recommendation. Love it. I feel like it should be required reading for every high school student in the country.
Keith Law: And every school administrator who thinks a 7:25 am start time for high school is appropriate.

Carl c: You hinted for weeks that you were reading The Unbearable Lightness of Being, but I never saw the review
Keith Law: Right here.

Bob Pollard: Unanswerable question perhaps, but assuming the Happy Fun Ball goes away, how do we even evaluate players like Soler, Schwarber, Garver, etc., moving forward? Are breakouts legit or do we have to look at them with a blanket skepticism?
Keith Law: I feel better about guys who we know had power, like the first two, than the guys who could hit and suddenly developed power, like Garver.

Raul: Half of Padres land is upset that Tingler, an unknown, was brought in instead of a “proven” guy like Washington, and that Preller is crazy considering ownership is seemingly getting impatient. My thought process is if you’re gonna lose your job, may as well go with the guy who best fits what you’re looking for instead of a name manager, right?
Keith Law: I’m a big Tingler fan, both from having met him and from his resume with Texas. Fans who don’t like a managerial hire who’s “unknown” are making a simple mistake: Just because YOU don’t know who the guy is doesn’t mean the industry doesn’t know who he is.

Jesse B : Are the WhiteSox close enough that if they grabbed Gerritt Cole they could make a playoff run this year, or are they a year away from making moves like that, ala the Cubs?
Keith Law: I think Cole or Strasburg to the White Sox would make them fringe contenders.

Brint: When do you think Spencer Howard joins the Phillies’ rotation full-time?
Keith Law: If healthy, by end of summer.

Jay: Do you think Kingery’s strong year will lead to regular playing time for a 20/20 in 2020? Pun most definitely intended
Keith Law: He has the speed for the SBs but I’ve had a hard time seeing how he’d get to 20 HR in the majors (Happy Fun Ball aside).

Brett: If you were running a front office, what effect (if any) would MLB’s ball shenanigans have on your roster/FA planning this year.
Keith Law: I’d just be wary of assuming any HR spikes from 2019 were real, and ask my R&D guys to make sure any projections accounted for this uncertainty. Also, I’d consider looking at pitchers who may have been inordinately hurt by the altered baseball – slider guys whose sliders backed up, for example.

Alex: I enjoyed your paste article on board games! Was wondering if you saw the list on greatest novels of the 2010s. What did you think? The Goldfinch was a bit high for me
Keith Law: Looking now, that’s a great list. Lincoln in the Bardo would be a contender for #1. Swamplandia! was just not that good. Station Eleven is amazing. I’ve read 7 of the top 10, then I taper off. The Night Circus is also too high. Swing Time and Americanah seem like they’re placed where they are because of who wrote them, not because they were that good. Biggest omission for me is In the Light of What We Know. I’d also throw All the Light We Cannot See and An Unkindness of Ghosts on there too.

Matt: But what happens if the owner is the one that created/tolerated that behavior? You can’t just Donald Sterling every owner that’s a prick.
Keith Law: No, but there are more remedies than just firing someone/forcing an owner to sell.

Bill: Odds we see Mackenzie Gore in the rotation midseason next year?
Keith Law: Nonzero, below 50/50.

Eric: Any consolation to be found for Braves fans today? They were a better team than the Nats all year, only to blow it vs. a pretty beatable Cardinals team in the NLDS. Every NLE team has won a pennant since they last won a WS game, and thrice now they’ve seen a team they finished ahead of in the standings go on to win the series as a wild card.
Keith Law: Nats were much better built for October, though: strong front 3 in the rotation, more patient heart of the lineup. Could see Atlanta getting there if Soroka stays healthy, Fried keeps growing as a pitcher, and one of Touki/Wright/Anderson/Wilson hits their ceiling.

Matt: In your video chat the other day, you mentioned that Carlson probably won’t see MLB in 2020 because he is only 20 yo and finished year in AA. In fact, he’s 21 and finished season in AAA. Not trying to “well actually” you, just curious if that changes his ETA for you at all?
Keith Law: He played at 20 all season; he only turned 21 last week. I use seasonal ages when discussing players. And he played all of 18 games in AAA, which, while I should have acknowledged it, is a drop in the ocean.

Andy: Despite the FO saying otherwise, seems like Cleveland will listen on Lindor. At this point do you agree with some patch that splits the middle, trying to keep competitive? Or should they just go full-on rebuild?
Keith Law: They should explore trading him now, while his value might be at a peak. Could sustain the franchise for multiple years if you make the right trade.

Buctober: Obviously accounting for your personal connection to with, curious what about Tony LaCava’s skill set would or wouldn’t make him a good GM for the Pirates now.
Keith Law: It’s a bit glib, but the two things that most sunk the Pirates recently were poor returns on trades and position players failing to develop as expected. Lacava certainly has strength in the latter, given his long player development experience. The former could be scouting, analytics, decision-making structure, or some of all of those things; I would say Tony is strongest in the third, also has long experience with the first, and showed real affinity for using analytical tools back when I worked with him in the mid-2000s.
Keith Law: I’m always wary of over-endorsing people I know well, and he was a mentor to me in Toronto, so I absolutely have a conflict when discussing him … but the Pirates would be terribly remiss if they didn’t at least interview him for the position.

Andrew: Any names to look out for in the upcoming Rule 5 draft?
Keith Law: Those rosters won’t be set for three more weeks.

Matt: What is the players union going to do about younger players not getting paid? Aaron Judge can be the face of MLB for 5 years and by the time he faces FA, no team offers him a long term deal because of his age.
Keith Law: Raising the minimum salary or adding salary arbitration for 2+ players (not just super-2 guys) would help.

Dax: Could Mike Montgomery put in a solid year as a starter in KC next year? Probably helps that he’ll no longer bounce back and forth between being a starter and a reliever.
Keith Law: I still think he’s best cast as a long relief guy.

Sean: Regarding your new book, based on the title alone I’m expecting some good analysis of, and references to the psychology of decision making. Can you shed any light on how in depth that gets? Can’t wait to read it.
Keith Law: That’s the idea, focusing on cognitive biases and illusions rather than, say, the neuroscience of decision-making. I rely a lot on popular and scholarly literature on these biases, describing how they were first identified and explaining them in lay terms. I love Thinking Fast and Slow, but that’s not a book for everybody.

JP: it appears the Red Sox did not interview a minority candidate before hiring their new Chief Baseball Officer. will MLB do anything about that?
Keith Law: There is no firm rule like the NFL has. Did they interview anyone else? I never heard another name, just that they interviewed Bloom and hired him.

Michael: Do you have any links to pieces or stories criticizing Hudson for missing game 1 of the NLCS? All I have read/heard is responses to criticism but I haven’t read any actual stories of criticism.
Keith Law: I linked to one two Saturdays ago here on the dish.

Michael: New place for your SD trip, Cafe Calabria (I think). Only certified Napolese pizza maker in SD and it rivals Bianco. In North Park, just tried it Friday
Keith Law: Much appreciated, thanks.

Ryan: I’m starting to become optimistic that Ivan Herrera will actually become a major league catcher. Do I need to slow down a bit or is he legit?
Keith Law: He’s interesting. And they sure do know how to make catchers over there.

Jordan: What did you think of Cole saying he’s not an employee of the Astros anymore and wearing a Boras Corp hat during his press conference? S
Keith Law: ?

Todd: Peter Luger’s Brooklyn got slammed in a new review. What say you?
Keith Law: I’ve never been, and since I don’t eat beef, I never will. Also, who the fuck doesn’t accept credit cards in 2019?

Zach D: Re: Astros Karma. Don’t forget blocking access for a Detroit reporter trying to do their job.
Keith Law: That never seemed to get any public resolution, but I hope MLB (and the BBWAA) don’t just drop that.

Johnny: Recent J2 classes have been producing super stars like Tatis, Soto, Vlad and more on the way like Wander, Robert, Kristian, Julio…etc. Has scouting gotten much better in recent years where top rated J2 players are converting into major leaguers? How early do you peg top prospects status on players from these classes?
Keith Law: Players in general are becoming highly productive big leaguers younger than in the past … but it’s just the guys at the top of the J2 classes, right? It’s not throughout those groups, but the stars who emerge faster. And I do think some of that is just better training, nutrition, etc. from trainers in the major countries that produce players.
Keith Law: I saw Erick Pena (KC) earlier this month. He’s 16, and while he has the baby face you’d expect, that is some kind of build on a kid that young.

Harry: When does the KLT100 drop this year?
Keith Law: I assume around February 1st. Not entirely my call.

Matt: At what point does the GOP stop attacking the impeachment process and start addressing the facts? Never?
Keith Law: Never.

Paul: Final half season of Bojack Horseman – Yay or neigh…
Keith Law: Never seen it. I did enjoy S1 of Big Mouth – just waiting for my girlfriend to catch up before we start S2 (and so I can discuss my favorite line with her).

Michael: Why don’t the Deadspin folk just start their own website and own it? Is it that expensive to do that it would be cost prohibitive?
Keith Law: It requires capital that most people don’t just have lying around.

Grover: Did it feel like people were really trying to will the “Bryce Harper must be so bitter/mad/jealous right now!” thing into existence the last week or two? Isn’t it possible he’s genuinely happy for his former teammates, and also fine with the decision he made last winter?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, that take is way too mature and tepid for online discourse. Please put your traybake back in the oven for another ten minutes and try again.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Would you give 8 years/$300 million to Cole if you felt like he was the one missing piece, or do you think spreading that around is a better play?
Keith Law: I would. He’s a difference-maker.

Jon: Did you get to see Forrest Whitley at all in the AFL? Any thoughts on what realistic expectations should be for him next season and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I led my AFL post with him. Stuff was all still there.

Ridley: Thank you for not sticking to baseball. FWIW, I’m excited about the new book and of the opinion that having all of these other interests makes all your writing, even the strictly baseball stuff, more interesting.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I do hope this book opens more possibilities for me to write about non-sportsball topics (well, aside from board games).

Sedona: i would love to hear you on a fantasy baseball podcast!! Some of your industry colleagues participate. Will you consider it?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy sports and haven’t for almost 20 years now, so, no, probably not.

John: Odorizzi QO seems like a no brainer. Will anyone sign him away from the Twins if he gets it?
Keith Law: Yes. They absolutely should offer.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think.

Al: I have heard of why we sleep. From what author however, there are several similar titles. Thanks
Keith Law: Matthew Walker. Reviewed it here.

Arnold: Did this World Series validate the importance of starting pitching over what seemed to be a growing preference for strong bullpens and openers?
Keith Law: It helped the cause of the starter, rather than validating it or disproving the alternative.

Zach D: School start time. Isn’t the rationale that school has to start somewhat around the time that adults start work? If school doesn’t start until 9am, and I have to leave my house at 7am for work. Then I need 2hrs of day care each morning to get my kid on the bus?
Keith Law: We’re talking about teenagers, whose circadian rhythms run later than those of younger kids or adults.

Anchen: How does this year’s free agent crop compare to last year? Machado/Harper/Corbin vs Strasburg/Cole/Rendon. Probably would go with last year mostly because of age of the two main stars but this year looks pretty strong as well.
Keith Law: I think it’s a little deeper past the top three this year than last.

Chris P: ESPN cut off my access to Insider earlier this year and I can’t reactivate it because I’m in Canada. It’s really going to suck the most in February when I can’t read your prospect lists, even though I want to give the company money just for that. I don’t have a question, just hoping you can let your bosses know that they are missing out on international reader’s money.
Keith Law: They’re aware, but I don’t think there’s a solution in sight. I’m sorry.

Brent: What do you like about Kapler? Phillies fans were almost all happy to see him gone. Over the top positivity, not holding players accountable, horrendous game day decisions. Girardi isn’t an upgrade? Find that hard to believe.
Keith Law: Wait, positivity is bad? Only in Philly.
Keith Law: The not holding players accountable thing is nonsense, BTW. That feels like a take distilled through the dirty filter of sports radio.

Frank: Is Marco Luciano a GUY or to early to tell?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. Too early to juice him like, say, Wander at that age.

Harry: Alex Rodriguez made a comment do Juan Soto post game “are you sure youre 21, can I see some ID, hahaha” A joke, but one in poor taste IMO. Any pushback?
Keith Law: I’m surprised that A-Rod didn’t ask Martinez about how valuable it was to have a lead that was an even number.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-14, how shocked are you that Republicans are still whining about the “process” after today’s vote? Gotta be a negative number, right?
Keith Law: Yep.
Keith Law: Y I K E S.

Erik: movies on your docket to see before “awards season” I always appreciate your reviews
Keith Law: Short term: The Lighthouse, Parasite (I couldn’t swing it this week), Dolemite is My Name, Frankie, The Irishman, The Laundromat (I hear it’s not good, I’ll probably still watch it). More coming the next few weeks though.

Ryan: Hi Keith, you seem to be fairly high on Kapler as a managerial candidate. I am curious if his handling of abuse allegations in the minor leagues from 2015 would concern you at all if you were a member of an organization considering hiring him. Im sure you probably know more about that situation than I do, so wanted to get your thoughts on Kapler’s past and how I should view him from someone whose opinions I respect greatly and generally align with my values.
Keith Law: The public story on that is simply false. He didn’t cover anything up; from talking to multiple people involved, including Kapler, it sounds like he handled it appropriately, and the subsequent accusations, which come from an employee the Dodgers fired, are not accurate. If this were a story, I’d write it, and certainly wouldn’t support a candidate who’d mishandled such cases. I believe I have the facts, however, and that just isn’t what happened.

Chris: So, I pre-ordered the Kindle version of the book. Just curious how much of a difference the paper vs digital purchase makes to the author. Thanks!
Keith Law: Virtually none, but I appreciate you asking.

HH: Feel free to punt here, but I’ve been very curious how many copies of Smart Baseball sold and there doesn’t seem to be a good way to find out. (This is just idle curiosity, since you’re the only author I know, and I have zero sense of the scale of the book market.)
Keith Law: It would actually take me a little while to get a precise number. I do get royalty statements, which do tell me that number, but it’s not easy to get to.
Keith Law: I have to take a call right now, so I have to wrap this up. Thank you all for reading, and for all your interest in my upcoming book. My rankings of the top 50 free agents should be up for ESPN+ subscribers on Tuesday, and I’ll chat at some point shortly after that. Enjoy your weekends!

Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest board game review for Paste covers Matt Leacock’s Era: The Medieval Age, an update of his Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age that lets you build your own little fiefdom with 3D plastic buildings on a peg board.

Keith Law: Call them up, tell them about the new trends. Klawchat.

addoeh: MLB’s showcase event is going on. But instead of that, we have Brandon Taubman showing the world he is a complete ass, the Astros seeing nothing wrong with what he said, and Rob Drake itching to start a ‘cival’ war. I can’t blame Manfred is he’s shouting “what the f*ck” at no one in particular today.
Keith Law: Indeed. From a straight publicity perspective, the start of MLB’s showcase event – which features one of the best teams ever against a franchise from a city that hasn’t won a World Series since 1925 – has been a nightmare. And I won’t blame Manfred if he shouts that phrase at the Astros, who bungled the Taubman thing from the get-go. Put him on administrative leave, say you’re investigating, issue a blanket apology, and the issue withers.

Bill: Enjoyed your AFL writeup and was interested in more about Josh Lowe. Will he slow down given his size? What type of slash would you expect from him in his prime?
Keith Law: We all slow down eventually but I don’t think that’s a near-term concern for Lowe. I could see middling average, good OBP with power. Those guys were usually .250/.340/.500+ before the Happy Fun Ball.

Greg: Is Girardi a good hire for the Phils? Are am I just more relieved/thrilled they didn’t hire Dusty “Basecloggers are bad” Baker?
Keith Law: I think Girardi fits the profile of a guy who’ll be much better the second time around (technically third, but year one hardly counts). Baker would have been a fine choice for that club. The hazard they avoided was Showalter, who I think would have been a very poor fit for their current roster.

Kris: Raimfer Salinas project as an everyday player?
Keith Law: Too far away & inexperienced to put that specific a grade on him.

Rob in WI: Like you, I think it’s better if a new manager has had previous managing experience. But is the trend of someone starting in a Front Office and working into the dugout (The Counsell Method?) possibly an effective one if it streamlines the communication of the Front Office and the Clubhouse? (I have other concerns about David Ross, but I guess that’s aspect is a plus?). Thanks for the chats, Keith.
Keith Law: I think we have one successful example, Counsell, who still took a few years to develop into a competent tactical manager, and that’s nowhere near enough. And Ross wasn’t even a full-time front office person.

Greg: I sort of can’t believe it’s now an open question whether the Mets or Phillies manager position was the more attractive. I know he’s not a Wilpon and he helped land Harper, but do you see Middleton as overstepping in the managerial choices? The retread manager seems like a classic overcorrection. Maybe the Kapler hire didn’t work out, but I don’t think the overall philosophy was wrong. Just the personnel.
Keith Law: IMO, the Kapler hire worked out fine. He was fired because the pitching staff fell apart, and I don’t see how that’s his fault.

Moe Mentum: Francis Ford Coppola doesn’t like Marvel movies. Why is this a news story?
Keith Law: I really have no idea. I don’t even really care for Marvel movies, but this is definitely a “sssh … let people enjoy things” moment.

Ron: Kiriloff will be in the majors next July, next September or not at all?
Keith Law: Second half. Depends on his health and where the Twins are.

Regression to the mean: Good to see you, Gerrit, it’s been quite a while.
Keith Law: It’s hard to say from watching on TV but I thought he was overthrowing (overrotating his hips?) and it cost him command.

Ridley: I imagine you’re going to get a lot of questions like this, but that’s never stopped me before: Has there been a darker day for American democracy than yesterday?

The President’s attorney argued that the President not only can’t be prosecuted while in office; he can’t even be investigated.

Meanwhile, a gaggle of Republicans broke into a secure area brandishing cell phones, knowingly breaking the law, in an attempt to invalidate the impeachment process. This despite the fact that many of them were actually entitled to be in the hearings and that the doors were closed to non-committee members as per a rule created by John Boehner.

I’m hesitant to say we’ve reached the bottom, but I’m pretty sure we can see it from here.
Keith Law: The failure of the rest of the Republican party to condemn that little circus – led by perhaps their most embarrassing member – is the most disturbing part. Nothing matters as long as you cling to power.

Bmosc: Gut instinct on where Cole is 2020? If they strike out on him, are there any contingency plans for the Yanks that you think close the gap b/w them/Houston? Also, just announced Hicks is out 8-10 months b/c of TJ surgery. Gardner/Maybin back now or other attractcive options?
Keith Law: Still think Cole has at least as good a chance to end up with the Angels as the Yanks. Quite a few outfield options available to them if they fear Gardner’s age; would expect them to go outside for that.

Brian: Did Hinch panic a little in the 7th? The intentional walk to Soto made no sense given the situation.
Keith Law: I didn’t like the IBB but I understood him trying to get to a platoon advantage there while avoiding a high-OBP, high-damage hitter against whom they didn’t seem to have a great attack plan. He wasn’t the winning run, which to me makes it a tolerable move rather than a dangerously wrong one.

JP: better trade chip for the Mets: JD Davis or Dom Smith? Seems right now neither will have a spot in the field with Alonso taking 1B and Davis not a great glove anywhere.
Keith Law: Smith. Younger, better fielder, year seems less fluky to me.

Juwan: How much has Soto exceeded your expectations? I know that you liked him as a prospect but had him slightly below the elite tier of Tatis, Vlad jr and Acuna. Are you surprised at his ascension?
Keith Law: I am quite surprised. Way better plate discipline than he ever showed in A-ball.

T: Are you worried about the future of the sport? Between the continuing DV problems, and the more transparent-than-ever anti-labor attitudes prevailing (in terms of service time manipulation and valuing ownership profits over on-field product), and now this whole juiced/not-juiced ball…it seems like the entire sport is at a bit of a crossroads, no?
Keith Law: My worries are much more about the on-field product’s appeal and the potential that we’re pricing future fans out of the ballpark than serious but transient issues like DV (which has always been there, it just feels bigger now because these incidents make news & fans are vocal about them).

Gloria: Is there any hope for curing the misinformed Drake’s of the world? It’s one thing to not support impeachment, but a whole other to falsely believe that the GOP isn’t part of the process, it’s all being done secretly, etc. Or is there no hope b/c Fox News and GOP members themselves spew these lies?
Keith Law: From an MLB perspective, he probably needs to be given a very long time off, and required to refrain from posting on any social media.

CP: Any reason for hope of a championship in the next 20 years if you’re a Pirates fan?
Keith Law: Sure. Franchises have turned around in less than half of that time.

Timmins: What’s a realistic AAV we can expect for Cole? Will someone toss him an 8/240 type deal?
Keith Law: I think he’s getting that and maybe more. Maybe more like 6-7 years but a higher AAV. Would be shocked if he comes in under $30MM/year.

Mike: Keith, the Mets have Rosario at SS & 2 of their top prospects are SS also. Gimenez is hopefully a year or 2 away & Mauricio right behind him. Would it be prudent (insert Met joke here) to see if one of them can play OF, where there is a lack of prospects in the system? Of course it’s the Mets, so one might get moved for an overpaid reliever.
Keith Law: Gimenez just isn’t the same caliber of prospect as the other two; he’s there but not really relevant. Rosario’s second-half improvement is enough to leave him at short for the next year, at the least, and Mauricio is 2-3 years away, so you have plenty of time to let that resolve itself. If that makes Gimenez a trade piece, great. They’re already in for a few pennies on 2020.

Eric: Juan Soto should be the face of baseball for the next decade, but some dope pitcher is going to throw at him for having fun, then he’ll be ripped by “old-school” dopes and they’ll ruin our fun.
Keith Law: You know what’s weird? George Springer didn’t run that game 1 double out, and I didn’t hear broadcasters or read mainstream writers complaining about how he was ruining the sport. What’s the difference between him and Ronald Acuña or Manny Machado? No puedo identificarlo.

Rob : Any thoughts on the Padres managerial hire. At least he does have *some* managerial experience?
Keith Law: Great hire. Tingler has real managing experience and developmental experience, and that’s what the Padres need in the next two years. Green is like Kapler to me – the fans blamed him when the reality is the team wasn’t good enough to contend this year, and the manager wasn’t the reason they didn’t. Tingler seems like a great choice to shepherd the development of Tatis Jr., Urias, Gore, Patiño, etc. as the team starts to move more towards contention this year.

Tim: Is there any hope left for Corey Ray?
Keith Law: Not much, but nonzero chance.

Nate: What’s the ceiling for Eric pardinho?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation if everything works out. High floor, not high ceiling.

TP: How does eliminating 42 minor league teams help to grow the popularity of the game? I get some of the facility and travel arguments, but it seems an easier fix would be realignment and MLB teams paying for upgrades. Oh wait, maybe $ is the real issue here…
Keith Law: Nobody’s going to see most of those 42 franchises. I posted some of their attendance figures; they’re not attracting fans as it is.

Kyle: Klaw, The Mets drafted Jake Mangum last year in the 4th round. Can he be anything more than a 4th OF? The system is lacking in OF depth.
Keith Law: That’s his best case scenario for me.

Vander: Quick thoughts about Jose Israel Garcia? Has he become a guy?
Keith Law: Absolutely a GUY. Maybe their top healthy prospect right now.

hotshots1812: I know you generally prefer guys with past managing experience at some level but how do you feel about someone like Tim Bogar who has been a big league coach for ~10 years? Is an extended time as a big league coach roughly equivalent to managing a few years in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t think I have enough data to answer that.

Jesse B : Assuming good health, is Adrian Morejon the Padres #3 behind Gore and Paddack in 2021?
Keith Law: If they try to make any kind of trade for an impact player this winter, I bet Morejon is in it.

T: Better baseball name right now than Jayce Tingler?
Keith Law: I saw Jax Biggers in the AFL.

AZ: Best 2019 movie you’ve seen so far?
Keith Law: I’ve only seen four, I think, but the good stuff is hitting theaters here now. Hoping to see Parasite Tuesday.

E: Prior to the W.S. the odds were around +195 for WAS and -220 for HOU. While Houston is the better overall team, who would bet on 2:1 odds in a 7 game series when the other team is a formidable opponent?
Keith Law: Those odds seem totally irrational to me. I’m listening to Leonard Mlodinow’s The Drunkard’s Walk right now, and he walks through this exact scenario; I think he’d agree 2:1 series odds would be bonkers.

TomBruno23: Is there a player of your youth that you thought was really good but when you look back on his sabermetrics now you think, “Well, maybe he wasn’t so good after all.”? For me it’s Vince Coleman.
Keith Law: Andre Dawson.

Maximus: Who is getting the job in Boston? I’m a Romero backer.
Keith Law: Every name I’ve heard is someone from outside the org. Jed Hoyer’s name comes up a lot. I don’t know if that’s real or just because he used to work there.

Robbie: Having been able to see prospects get their first taste of pro-ball (albeit a clear SSS), which teams would you say at this point had your top 3 ranked draft classes from this past year?
Keith Law: I would not change any answers based on such tiny samples.

Stephen: If you were Andrew Friedman, what would you do this offseason? Should the Dodgers just run it back, or actually try and chase the Yankees and Angles on Cole or go after Rendon?
Keith Law: Go for it. Team is built to win now. And accept that Kershaw isn’t what he was, which means signing Cole or Strasburg or Ryu, or trading for someone comparable.
Keith Law: I hear they want Rendon, who is a superstar, but they have a surfeit of infielders and I think they need more help in the rotation.

John: RE: Taubman… looks like the Astros might have karma against them this series.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that for a second. The Nats have just outplayed them.

Guest: If you’re Rendon, do you re-sign with the Nationals, knowing they have Turner, Soto, Robles, and the rotation, or do you maybe go somewhere else to either be the man or put a team over the hump? As a Nats fan I know what the easy answer is for me.
Keith Law: He’s taking the most money. I guarantee that, and why not? I would do the same.

Dean M: Hey Keith. I consider you as my top Scouting Dept and you helped me dominate for years. Just wanted to say thank you and keep up the great work!! Just one question… do you think Chris Sale’s best days are behind him? Or is this season just a one yr injury write off? Thanks again!!!
Keith Law: I don’t know – if he had just had elbow surgery, I’d be more comfortable saying he’ll bounce back in 2021, but now I really can’t guess.

Thomas: When it comes to positional prospects, the Tigers have nothing notable in their farm system (and nothing close to ML ready). The rebuild is probably behind schedule as a result. Should they be looking to trade someone like Faedo or Burrows for a hitting prospect or two? Or hang on for a couple years and see if the next two drafts help fill out the system.
Keith Law: Neither of those guys has enough value to get the hitting prospect you need.

Gloria: Fact or fiction? If the Pirates stayed the course and kept all of their guys (and got better coaches) they would have been contenders this year?
Keith Law: That’s two huge ifs together.

kglue: Speaking of Soto and plate discipline more generally, is there an asymmetric payoff coming into play? e.g. if you strikeout a lot but also hit a ton in the minors, you’ll get promoted with the thought, “they’ll get better at pitch recognition or plate discipline”, but that if you walk a ton and don’t show hit or power tools, you probably don’t get promoted. Kind of the old adage that no one walks their way off the island.
Keith Law: That was probably true 20 years ago, but far less so today.

Benji: Without much change in performance next year, what are your thoughts in general on George Springer as a FA next winter? Do you think his skill set will age well into his early-mid thirties or is any team likely going to regret committing to him long term?
Keith Law: Definitely the kind of player I’d project to hold value on both sides of the ball into his 30s.

Ted: What type of prospect is the pitcher from Korea who the Red Sox just signed?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen anything about them signing a Korean pitcher, sorry.

Snowy: What type of deal do you think Bumgarner would get on the open market? Local consensus seems to be ownership is opening the checkbook and re-signing him no matter what
Keith Law: If they want to do that, great, but they should let the market set his price. I wonder if demand will be tepid given how he looked this year.

Randy: What are your thoughts on K Bryant’s grievance? Of course Cubs manipulated time like every other team, but in 2015, both Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella got hurt and went on DL paving way for KB. Do you really think there is any way he is FA after 2020?
Keith Law: My assumption is he’ll get a financial settlement, not free agency. Yes, they manipulated service time, obviously. Can Boras prove this was the sole reason they didn’t promote him for Opening Day, enough to get a ruling that sets him free? That I doubt.

Pat D: If you go to Wikipedia’s page on the 2020 HOF balloting, for the Modern Baseball Committee, in addition to the 8 men not elected by that committee last time, they list 42 other players, umpires, managers and executives as possible candidates, most all of whom it seems you could at least have a discussion on whether they’re deserving. So it’ll be kinda sad when precious few ever get elected, right?
Keith Law: Those committees have really become an embarrassment to the Hall. I’ve had plenty to say about bad BBWAA selections, but whoa boy, we are way better than those guys.

Benji: If the Tigers were to seriously shop Matt Boyd this winter, do you think they’d be able to land a bat in the middle range of your top 100? Do you think they ought to shop him now regardless?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Ray: Isn’t it interesting how so many “patriotic” conservative pundits have never said a word about human rights abuses in China, until they saw an opportunity to yell at Lebron James for not saying enough about human rights abuses in China?
Keith Law: I posted a link to a piece from the Guardian this past Saturday that said exactly that.

Gloria: Can someone like Ray be fixed by another organization in the way you said the Astros fixed Cole or is it harder for hitters?
Keith Law: It’s never easy, but he’s had so many swing issues since entering pro ball, and yet has a good underlying sense of the strike zone, that I think there’s something there for the right development group. Would love to see what the Dodgers could do for him, to pick one example. Rays too.

TomBruno23: Finished The Mushroom Hunters yesterday, now all I want to do is try every mushroom out there. Checked out The Queen from my library today. Keep those book recs coming.
Keith Law: I have been on a similar quest for unusual mushrooms lately, but haven’t found any markets that sell them near me. If anyone has a rec for places in Philly or its environs, let me know. DiBruno’s let me down, unfortunately.

Jon G: How much scrutiny does a team that hires Gabe Kapler as a manager or front office executive deserve given how he handled allegations of abuse when with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: The public story on that does not match what I have been able to learn from talking to many people involved at the time (not including Kapler).

Todd: Florial, Garcia and Gil enough for Lindor?
Keith Law: No. The Yanks have done quite a job selling the public on Florial, but I don’t think the industry buys it.

addoeh: Regarding eliminating minor league teams, for the cities losing clubs in the east and mid-west, aren’t most of them fairly close, an hour drive or so, from another minor or even major league club? If the fans want to see professional baseball, they can.
Keith Law: And if an area has enough of a population to support another team, one will move there. Nobody in this system has any interest in keeping teams away from fans. Team owners at all levels want profits, which depend on fan bases. All of the markets I’ve heard might lose their teams are either very small or lack even remotely adequate facilities.

JR: Of the five managers hired so far (with three openings to go), all have been white guys. You think any minorities will get one of the final three positions? Any minority candidates you think that are deserving of a manager position?
Keith Law: I’m not optimistic.

Brad: What is Victor Robles ceiling? Is he a Jackie Bradley Jr.?
Keith Law: Totally different player.

Scott: Do you think Strasburg should opt out?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think he will.

Tom: Do you believe the ball has been de-juiced for the playoffs? Do you think it’s a sign of what’s ahead?
Keith Law: The baseball is clearly different. Not sure I believe it was deliberate, which is the popular accusation.

Joe: Joe Espada has twice been passed by guys who have zero experience (Boone and Ross). Is there something wrong with him as a potential hire?
Keith Law: I know nothing about Espada to answer that question, but passing over an experienced minority twice is a bad look for MLB.

Aaron Houston, Tx: What can we expect from Bobby Dalbec? Can he be a Devers type profile?
Keith Law: Totally different players.
Keith Law: Devers turns 23 today. Dalbec is already 24 and hasn’t reached the majors yet.

Salty: I vote independently and lean conservative. I don’t understand the love affair with the wealth tax proposed by the democratic candidates. It seems great in theory, but won’t the richest of the rich just use their high-priced accountants to avoid paying additional taxes like the plague? No one ever questions the candidates on that scenario? Am I completely wrong on the subject? It seems like there’s no chance the intended (hoped) revenue would ever come close to being realized.
Keith Law: Wealth is pretty hard to hide, harder than income is. I think the argument should be whether taxing the wealthiest Americans has any deleterious effects on our economy. I don’t think it does, but I don’t know the answer and I see very little discussion of it.

Pat D: Do you have an opinion about some films getting very little to no theatrical release and essentially premiering on streaming services? I’ve counted about 30 films between now and the end of the year that are set to be released that I’d like to see, so I’m not going to complain that I can stay home to watch a few of them.
Keith Law: I prefer it too since it’s 35 minutes for me to get to the Ritz art theaters in Philly.

Mike: Keith, where do you stand on the pace of play issue? It seems it takes so long between pitches now. 4 hour 9 inning games is ridiculous.
Keith Law: It’s not pace of play. It’s pace of game. There are too many commercials and too many breaks.

Rob k: NYC media is reporting there’s a potential BOMBSHELL candidate for the Mets job. Is it you?
Keith Law: It’s not, although with Tingler getting the San Diego job, there’s hope for us 5’6″ baseball dorks now.

Jason: Do you have a solution to the service-time manipulation for free agency? Regardless of where lines are drawn, teams will try to stay on the “good” side. Would age or time since signing be a better way to handle it?
Keith Law: I proposed one modest rule change back in March 2015.

Todd: How will teams get to Coors Field next season with the wall surrounding Colorado?
Keith Law: They’ll have to get really high.

Kris: Does the Girardi hire have any significance on the ability for the Phillies to get to playoffs, let alone win a title? Hard for any manager to succeed with a flawed, talet-poor roster and a franchise that’s unable to draft or develop talent. Not saying Girardi is a bad choice, but I think Kapler took the fall for a decade plus of organizational ineptitude (which doesn’t seem like it’s going to end anytime soon unless MacPhail is fired)
Keith Law: They need to go get another starter, and once again rebuild the bullpen. I do think Howard helps them in 2020, but he’s not the entire solution.

Jake: The category is: Guys who throw really hard but don’t get strikeouts because they work down in the zone and then they go to Houston. What’s the next name in this sequence: Morton, Cole…?
Keith Law: I would love to see Jon Gray in Houston.

RJ : What type of contract do you see Zach Wheeler commanding this offseason? I feel like teams might see him as a good player with great potential to take a step forward if he has an opportunity to play with better defense behind him. His advanced metrics seem to be great.
Keith Law: Buster swears Wheeler is getting 4+ years … good for him given how much time he missed with injuries. I do think he’s the third best starter on the market.

Chris: cast iron or carbon steel fry pan?
Keith Law: I own one of each.

Bruce: How well does managing in the minors translate to managing in the majors? With the handling of the players and in-game managment being so different I would think ML bench coach experience would be more valuable.
Keith Law: Is in-game management that different?

B Mand: I wanted to ask a follow-up to a question you answered last week about the Red Sox looking to see what the trade market is for Mookie. What kind of return would the Sox need to get in order to make this a worthwhile move?
Keith Law: At least two projected starters, either young MLBers or top prospects. Not just any ones, but good ones.

Eric: Went to Disney World with my family last week. Saw a guy in a red MAGA hat. It was really unsettling.
Keith Law: Well, he gave a lot of his money to one of the most LGBTQ+ friendly companies in the world to own the libs.

Larry Legend: I understand it’s not as simplistic as this but the old school scouty team beating the cold calculating really smart team makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
Keith Law: Well, the Nats aren’t really “old school scouty.” They talk analytics as much as most clubs do.

Brian Godish: I’m asking this knowing the answer is “money”, but why don’t MLB teams invest some money in making their minor league facilities/travel a little bit more adequate? Teams are investing in their draft picks to produce, it would seem a decent nights sleep should be helpful for said draft picks/international signing. It seems crazy how the minors work from a financial perspective.
Keith Law: They don’t own the teams. There’s no reason for them to invest in facilities they won’t own, and that could benefit another parent org when the affiliation agreement is up.

John: Should the Twins give Odorizzi a QO?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris B: Do you think the Indians move Lindor this offseason? If they have no plans of resigning him then this would be the perfect time to maximize the return.
Keith Law: They absolutely should. I don’t get the sense they will.

Oscar: Any cookbook recommendations for a complete novice? I’m talking super simple.
Keith Law: Joy of Cooking was the first real cookbook I ever used, and I think it’s perfect for a newbie.

Chris: If writing about baseball and board games isn’t an option, but you could write full time about either music or food, which would you choose?
Keith Law: Food. I find writing about music harder than any other things I write about; it’s the most subjective topic I hit on, and translating things I hear into words without lapsing into discussions of Phrygian modes or counterpoints is quite difficult. (And who the hell wants to read that kind of writing?)

Ricky: I’ve seen a lot of Blue Jays fans patting themselves and the organization on the back for getting rid of Osuna but…if they wanted to do the “right” thing, shouldn’t they have just cut him rather than exchange his value or something else (even if it’s at a diminished cost)? I’m not sure how much “credit” they (or any team that trades someone accused of DV for something of value) should get.
Keith Law: I have no issue with them handling it as they did. I’m actually unsure if they could just release the player under the DV policy.

Pat: By taxing “wealth”, what do do you do? These people don’t have those $$ lying around in cash, it’s in some non-liquid asset, like stock or real estate, etc. Make the wealthy sell assets to pay the wealth tax? Does that affect the value of the assets? I’m not saying high income shouldn’t pay more taxes, but, the logistics of taxing “wealth” seem fuzzy to me.
Keith Law: You open a separate argument, which is that our capital gains tax is WAY too low. We tax regular income more heavily than we tax capital gains, but capital gains tend to accrue to higher income earners and to the wealthy, not to the majority of American households.

Geralt of Rivia: Gut feeling – even with the talk of trimming the payroll, luxury tax, etc., do the Red Sox come to terms with Betts? Trade him in the offseason? Ride out 2020 with the hopes of being in contention?
Keith Law: Depends on who’s GM and what ownership wants to do, but I don’t see a good path to contention for them in 2020 with their current pitching staff.

Stu: Is toxic maleness endemic to baseball, and other male sports, or can it be fixed?
Keith Law: Toxic masculinity is endemic to any patriarchal society. It’s not just sports; they are the visible tip of a very large iceberg.

Scott: Hi Keith. Looking forward to reading book #2. What are your thoughts on Barber to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Nice guy. Don’t know much about his own philosophy, but he comes from an org that integrates traditional scouting and analytical tools about as well as any team does.

Ben: Any Seattle eats recommendations? I am headed there for work and know nothing about the food scene.
Keith Law: I haven’t been since 2001 (and it kills me).

Pat D: I find the combination of Buck and Smoltz to be pretty unbearable to listen. Do you feel that way or am I just convinced that they both hate the Yankees and make no attempt to hide that?
Keith Law: I have watched all of their games without the sound. Smoltz’s attitude on modern players and especially on analytics does MLB no favors at all. Actually, I did hear a bit of game one, and I think he referred to Scherzer “going to the computer” in Max’s brain to figure out how to get some hitter out. I mean, John, that’s what analytics departments do. So it’s okay if a player uses his fallible memory, but not okay if we use the ACTUAL FUCKING DATA?

Craig: Why aren’t more major league teams simply buying affiliates when they come up for sale? The easy way to guarantee a good location/good facilities is to own the team yourself.
Keith Law: Then you have to run the teams.

Geralt of Rivia: Are fantasy and sci-fi genres that you are less interested in? (movies/tv/books) I think I just see you talk about them less, no judgment just curious.
Keith Law: Not true at all. I’ve read every Hugo winner but four (Cyteen, the two Mars books, and this year’s winner).

Allen: Wealth is actually much easier hide then income, primarily because there is much more ambiguity in terms of what someone’s actual wealth is. Several European countries have eliminated their wealth tax because the costs of collecting it weren’t worth the revenue gained. https://www.accountingtoday.com/articles/democrats-love-a-wealth-tax-b…
Keith Law: Bookmarking this to read later, thank you.

Chris: If invited, would you ever sit for an interview on Hot Ones? And how far up the Scoville Scale could you go?
Keith Law: I would, but not very far.

Vincent Adultman: Do you think Didi would accept a QO?
Keith Law: No. He’s a top ten FA this winter.

Gloria: I’m sure some of your readers/trolls are upset by the MAGA hat comment, but I hope they realize that for me and many others it’s like seeing a KKK hood, swastika, etc.
Keith Law: If you choose to wear that hat, you are doing so with the full understanding that many people will see it and find it offensive – and that, Mr. Luhnow, is “intent.”

Sean: I believe you really liked Zadie Smith’s White Teeth. Do you plan on checking out her new short story collection Grand Union?
Keith Law: Eventually yes. Read On Beauty and Swing Time, both fine, neither measured up to White Teeth.

Buscon Bob: How awful is the Cubs pitching development part of their farm system? Baltimore bad?
Keith Law: They haven’t drafted much pitching either – their strategy was always to draft bats and trade for or sign pitchers. Hard to kill their player development for failing to develop prospects they never had.

John: Did you read beyond the Three-Body Problem?
Keith Law: I didn’t; it was fine, but felt no need to move on from there. The whole unfolding-the-proton gambit was right up against the edge of the envelope for me … I was like, okay, I think I’m good here.

Dave: re Taubman – is it normal for front office types to be in the locker room during celebrations, etc.? Was this always the case?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s normal, and I have no objection to him or any other FO personnel being there.

Pat: Agree on capital gains, it should be higher taxed. Never understood why the tax rate is tied to how long you owned the asset.How about a sloped capital gains tax % based on amount gained, similar to income tax? Maybe the top tier is 50% for any gain over $5M or something?
Keith Law: Sure, at least that’s moving in the right direction – and while it will somewhat disincentivize capital investment, I don’t think that will stop anyone from trying to found the next Amazon or Facebook either. Set it at a rate where investors will still think they can get rich, even though they may give nearly half of it to the government in taxes.

Pat: Odds that Taubman was drunk in the clubhouse? That’s my hunch. Not that that’s an excuse, but it led him to say the quiet part of what surely was an internal talking point about this reporter continuously pointing out that Osuna is a scumbag out loud
Keith Law: If he was, well, in vino veritas.

Moe Mentum: Who was more musically innovative, David Bowie or David Byrne? How about most *influential*?
Keith Law: Don’t know their oeuvres enough to answer the first one but Bowie was certainly more influential.

Patrick: Who do you believe is the top prep righty in the 2020 class? Abel? Kelley?
Keith Law: Probably Kelley right now, with Abel 2. Definitely the top two guys.

Bruce: Thoughts on The Mets interviewing Eduardo Perez?
Keith Law: Very happy for him.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks to all of you, especially the substantial portion of you named “Pat,” for reading and for all of your questions. Keep an eye out for my Paste list of the top board games of the 2010s, and for a formal announcement about my second book, The Inside Game, in the next few days. Enjoy your weekends!

For ESPN+ subscribers, I had a long piece covering all the players I saw in the Arizona Fall League plus some other notes from instructs and games I saw in September.

Over at Ars Technica, I ranked all 18 Ticket to Ride maps available on tabletop. I also reviewed the new strategy game Tapestry, from the designer of Scythe and Charterstone, over at Paste.

Keith Law: Say goodbye to conventional ways. It’s Klawchat.

Trevor: Cole to the Angels sounds like a broken record. Last I checked there’s another team in LA, that wins, with more payroll flexibility
Keith Law: That doesn’t change the fact that Cole is an ideal fit for the Angels. Perhaps the Angels are not an ideal fit for him, or would choose not to outbid other suitors, but he is exactly what they need (actually, they need two of him).

Mike: Hi Keith, what’s your take on the Sox trading Mookie?
Keith Law: They should explore the market for him.

addoeh: Other than the upcoming Italy and Japan maps, what other countries/locations would like to see released for Ticket To Ride? Canada, Australia/New Zealand, Russia, South America?
Keith Law: It’s funny, I’m reading Paul Theroux’s The Great Railway Bazaar and have been thinking about how much train travel itself has changed, and how the Ticket to Ride games (which I love) really have nothing to do with the experience of travelers. Seems like that could be a new avenue for expansions. Anyway, South America seems like the least covered region for the maps so far – perhaps an Old Patagonian Express map is in order.

Trevor: Better California legislation: NCAA Fair Pay Act or prep schooling starting no earlier than 8-8:30am?
Keith Law: Why not both? High schools should all start later, as teenagers’ circadian rhythms run later than those of younger children or adults.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation next season?
Keith Law: At some point, yes.

Lyle: Could Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez both be on the opening day 2021 roster?
Keith Law: Possible but unlikely. Kelenic is further along.

Bruce: Will Yordan Alvarez continue to be a middle of the order bat next year or do you see him regressing next year?
Keith Law: I think there’s some regression coming, but he’ll still be an above-average hitter.

Mike: Has what Royce Lewis done in the AFL given you more optimism that the swing adjustments are progressing and the talent is still intact? Kiley at Fangraphs said in his chat yesterday he’s still bullish.
Keith Law: What swing adjustments? He looked exactly the same – huge leg kick, big hitch – and did not hit at all during the regular season. Nothing is wrong with him physically, but I don’t think there’s a big leaguer who hits for average with a noisy approach like Lewis’s.

The Bilmo: Why not play the better defender, Dom Smith, at first, and see if Alonso can play left?
Keith Law: Alonso can’t play left.

Brian: Could you provide an assessment of the Toronto front office? Has Shapiro/Atkins really done anything above average in the past 4 years? Bo/Pearson appear to be great draft hits…Lots of what appear to be bad decisions. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: The ‘model’ didn’t want Bichette; the scouts had to fight to get him. The model wanted JB Woodman, whom the Jays took a few picks later and who is now completely out of baseball. Pearson was a great pick, for sure, and the early (brief) returns on Groshans are also strong. But overall I don’t think this front office has built up their farm system nearly as well as other teams have in the same time frame, and they haven’t maximized returns well enough in trades.

Greg P: Keith – what’s your opinion on the baseball being used for the playoffs?
Keith Law: The evidence says the baseball is different from the one used in the regular season. Ignore the vaporing coming from the Commissioner’s Office and go with the data.

Matt: Tim Kurkjian mentioned that he liked the Maddon hire because the Angels “went too far” into the analytics, and that Maddon can bring them back the other way. Do you agree with that assessment? Is that something that’s really even possible?
Keith Law: I did not hear Tim say that, and it doesn’t really sound like him, but I’ll respond to the general argument and say it’s balderdash. Scioscia was hostile to analytics; Ausmus simply didn’t implement them well at all. Maddon is more open to integrating analytics than either of those two guys, and that’s good. It won’t matter without more pitching, though.

Ken: With the Harold Baines induction in the HOF and Nick Markakis at 2355 hits at age 35, is there better than a non-zero chance that he is able to hang around long to collect his 3,000 hits. As a die hard O’s fan my wife would be ecstatic (I am a Yankee fan and once lovingly called my wife’s team a cute little franchise 🙂 ) but good god Markakis in the hall? I might never hear the end of it!!!!!!!!!!
Keith Law: I think if Markakis gets to 3000 hits, he’ll be the first non-PED-assumed player to reach that mark and not get in through the BBWAA vote.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for your insights! Was wondering if you thought 2020 would be a realistic expectation for the White Sox to challenge for a division title with what they currently have? I know free agent additions could change this outlook. I also know they have a lot of question marks, especially on players coming back from injuries, but I’m not sure the Twins’ run this year is sustainable.
Keith Law: Not as currently constituted, but they should be very aggressive this winter. I do think the Twins’ run is sustainable, but the White Sox can match them with improvements from internal options plus two pieces added this winter.

Bob: No question. Just wanted to say I had a chance to check out the Crack Shack on a recent work trip to SD and it exceeded my expectations. Thanks for the recommendation!
Keith Law: Can’t wait to head there for the winter meetings. I’ve grown to like those meetings less and less over the years, especially with the last two years such duds for actual baseball news, but San Diego is the best city for them.

Brian: Are you bothered at all by the coexistence of wild cards and an unbalanced schedule? Teams are competing for playoff spots while playing vastly different schedules. For example, the Mets played 102 games against teams over .500, while the Brewers played 88, the Cubs 84 and the Diamondbacks 75. I’ve never seen anyone talk about this, but it seems like a pretty fundamentally unfair structural problem. (And it’s not necessarily something that will vary from year to year; the Mets always play 4 to 6 games against the powerful Yankees, for example.)
Keith Law: Playing more teams in your division – which is probably the right schedule when division titles matter so much – will always lead to an unbalanced schedule, and there’s no real fix for that.

Dan: The Cubs have 4 “top 100” prospects. Change my mind.
Keith Law: They do not. And since I make the list, I think that settles it.

Sarah: I saw your write up from the AFL. Do you buy Julio Rodriguez as a potential super star?
Keith Law: Offensively, yes.

edward: hey keith: longtime reader (advocated for you to read anything by gaddis) and i am headed to wilmington tomorrow for an opening at the delaware art museum. i have the afternoon free – any suggestions as to how best to spend my time? thank you!
Keith Law: Uh … maybe go walk around Longwood Gardens?

Jon: Is Gabe Kapler the next manager to ride the AJ Hinch “2nd time around he’s a genius” train?
Keith Law: I think he’ll do very well at his next stop. I don’t think he was in any way the problem in Philadelphia, regardless of what the fans or some of the local media tell you. Their bullpen imploded early, and their rotation crumbled late. None of that is on him.

Jones: What are your thoughts around the managing skills of Dave Martinez. Obviously managerial skills are often soft and hard to quantify but in my mind he definitely deserves credit for keeping the team together, setting the right tone and atmosphere and enabling them to get the most out of their talent and win games. I don’t think he does a good job with the bullpen, but looking back on Trevor Rosenthal, Tony Sipp and the rest of that cast of characters, who could do a good job?
Keith Law: I think he’s been harmless, but this team is doing what they’re doing because they are ridiculously talented. It’s a very deep, strong lineup, and their top three starters rival any top three in the game.

Brandon: Do you eat concessions at the games you attend? If so, what would be your ideal menu throughout the game?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Sedona: Hey Keith! Do you project any player from the 2018 J2 class to become All-Stars?
Keith Law: I think Cartaya is on that path right now. Others have a chance but are still pretty low-probability, like Luciano or Orelvis.

Luke: Is Wingspan the best new board game of 2019? (This could also be asked “What new board game should I get the family for the holidays?”)
Keith Law: Yes, I don’t think I’m spoiling anything by saying so. It’s the only perfect score I’ve given a game since I started reviewing over at Paste.

Ron: Is this off season a good time for the Twins to trade Rosario? Would he bring any decent pitching? Your thoughts. Thanks as always for the chats!
Keith Law: A low-OBP corner outfielder who’s not a great defender and has two years remaining probably doesn’t bring back much pitching, especially if his power spike this year was more the baseball than anything new with him.

David: Any thoughts on Ron Washington vs. Jayce Tingler as the Padres’ new manager?
Keith Law: I’m more familiar with Tingler, and didn’t love what I saw from Washington the first time around in Texas, so I would lean towards the former … but recognize that Wash might be better the second time around.

BD: Besides Luis Garcia, do you have any notes on Sterling Sharp, Jacob Condra, Jakson Reetz, or Cole Freeman?
Keith Law: All my AFL notes were in that column. I didn’t see Sharp pitch at all.

Moe Mentum: What were Gabe Kapler’s primary weaknesses as Phillies manager, and who should they hire as a replacement to address these weaknesses?
Keith Law: His handling of the media was probably his downfall, which is dumb but that’s the world in which we live. They should hire the best available replacement, not someone who is the anti-Kapler.

Beni-getbettah?: The atmospheric pressure isn’t the only thing dropping in Boston, as the next bomb might be Mookie’s departure. The silver lining, if that forecast is true, may be a solid pair of young players remaining in Bogaerts and Devers. Outside of that duo, there appears to be a drought of controlled and productive young talent. I wonder what your barometer reads on Benintendi’s season? It wasn’t a disaster, but the lack of pop in a season of juiced balls raises concerns that this may be more than a blip on the radar.
Keith Law: I’m truly surprised his power has never come on, but at this point you’re probably asking for a swing overhaul to try to find it.

Chris: Thoughts on Dave Roberts’ handling of the bullpen in Game 5 of the NLDS?
Keith Law: I thought using Kershaw for Eaton was fine, leaving him in past an inning break to face one of the best RHB in the game was questionable, and not going to Kolarek for Soto was even more questionable. Roberts managed as if Kershaw were still the 2016 model, but we have a full season of pitch data that says he’s not. Using Joe Kelly in the 10th was a white flag.

Chris: Any buy-low free agents you like this offseason?
Keith Law: I’ll do that ranking right after the WS ends.

Michael: Is there a tangible reason why Cole is so much better now than two years ago?
Keith Law: Yes, with the trade to Houston he changed his approach and went with more four-seamers up.

Adam: If you’re into high-ceiling but risky prospects, are Brailyn Marquez and Brennan Davis — and not Nico Hoerner — the best Cubs’ prospects?
Keith Law: Hoerner does seem lower upside, and he didn’t perform well after an aggressive assignment to AA this year. If you think Marquez is a likely starter, he’s their best guy. If not, it’s probably Davis.

Jesse B : Can Christian Javier be a successful back end starter if he tightens up the command or is he a reliever?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me.

JR: While I love seeing top talent perform in the postseason, I’m also a sucker for a great story. Seeing a guy like Anibal Sanchez throwing quality postseason innings or Zimmerman having some huge postseason moments and his Nats finally having postseason success after all his years with the team – fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: Agreed – the Nats are a series of great stories, from a fan base that hadn’t seen their team win a playoff series to a city that hasn’t hosted a WS game in 86 years to all the players on that roster who’d never seen an NLCS let alone a World Series.

Michael: What should the penalty be for the Angels if it is proven that team employees knew of Skaggs drug abuse and if a team employee is found to have been procuring the drugs for him?
Keith Law: That’s a legal question, no? Seems like one for the lawyers.

BD: With a salary cap (excuse me luxory tax), shouldnt MLBPA push for a salary floor as well?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. I don’t think it solves much at the macro level but it would funnel more money to players.

Jerry: I’m an Astros fan. I’m in awe of what Cole is doing. That being said, a SP only plays in 20% of the games. Is it really worth it to blow up the salary structure (whether you agree with it or not) to pay Cole what he is going to demand and potentially lose future FAs like Correa, Springer, Brantley whose every day production would be, presumably, harder to replace?
Keith Law: A SP only plays in 20% of their team’s games, but has undue influence on those 30-odd games, so one great SP is as valuable as a great position player. I’d be more concerned with the question of how durable any great starter is versus any great position player.

Pat: Billy Squier? Nice!
Keith Law: I do it for fun.

Jason : Everyone in Philly is blasting the Phillies right now about how bad their farm system is and they “only” have 3 top 100 prospects. What is you opinion of the Phillies system?
Keith Law: They’ve flubbed a lot of first-round picks, especially top-ten picks, and it’s hurting them. I also think several very good prospects – their Luis Garcia and Daniel Brito among them – have failed to develop so far, and that’s got to lead Klentak et al to examine their development processes.

Matt: Is Juan Soto now the most valuable (hypothetical) trade asset in baseball?
Keith Law: Is he more valuable than Acuna, who is signed to a team-friendly deal? I don’t think so.

Jack: Have you heard about any issues with Kelenic’s makeup? I have heard from someone that has played with him at multiple levels that at least part of the reason why New York moved on from him was that he has character issues.
Keith Law: That is some serious ass-covering bullshit right there.

Larry Legend: With every pitcher seemingly throwing 95+ what separator are teams deeming most important? Secondaries, command, arm action or effort level?
Keith Law: All of those are factors. The first two are variables around effectiveness; the latter two speak more to potential durability or role.

Bruce: Are you still high on Dom Smith? Will the Mets deal him this winter to a team where he can play 1B?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think so.

Jeff: Any truth to the notion that the long layoff the Nats have right now will have them out of rhythm?
Keith Law: Nope.

Jack: How have teams not pushed back against a 5 game Division Series? Baseball is too random over a 5 game stretch and really good teams get eliminated at this level of the playoffs.
Keith Law: Players are not asking for more games. Also, plenty of randomness in 7-game series too.

James: What were your impressions of the Robot Umpire in the AFL? Did you see Jacob Heyward get tossed after that questionable call?
Keith Law: I was gone before that, but I thought it worked fine, and saw just one pitch called by the automated strike zone that I thought looked wrong (which isn’t saying it was wrong, just that I thought it was).

JL: Pardon my ignorance, but can you explain generally how age impacts a player’s performance, particularly at the plate? Reduced bat speed? Quicker fatigue? Lower ability to recover from fatigue? I’m curious why players start to decline at the plate due to age. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think reduced bat speed is the #1 issue.

Joe: I’m a suffering Reds fan. I see no path to contending for them anytime soon, but I’m sick of losing and feel like their best play is to see what they can get for Castillo, Gray, and even Suarez. They’ll never unload Votto though, so a total Houston-style fire sale is impossible. Never mind, I’m just gonna go bang my head against the wall for a bit.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t have traded three of their top six prospects (Trammell, Downs, Josiah Gray) for short-term help, but they did, and I’m not really sure how they move forward from this netherworld in which they’ve placed themselves.

Justi: Do you see Dylan Carlson having a chance to be on the Opening Day roster next season, especially if Ozuna walks?
Keith Law: Not likely.

Anthony: Jazz Chisholm: Did he right the ship in the second half?
Keith Law: Sure sounds like it.

Jerry: Barring injury, Whitley is the number ? starter in the opening day rotation, working out of the BP, or refining his stuff/delivery at AAA?
Keith Law: In AAA. Just didn’t pitch all that much this year, didn’t look right until the AFL.

Christopher: Is Jordan Humphreys on the Mets any good? As in what is you projection? Pounding the strike zone is nice. Future starter? Releiver? Thanks
Keith Law: Yes, he’s good, wrote him up in the AFL post.

Robert: Did you have a chance to see Micker Adolfo in Arizona? Do you think he can still unlock his massive tools if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Yep, can still hit, with power, going to swing and miss but will walk some and hit enough HR to profile as a regular.

Bill: What do you think about the Astros starting Greinke and Verlander over the next two days? It almost forces Houston to win both games, otherwise you’re looking at Cole on three days’ rest and the rookie or a bullpen brigade in a winner-take-all game 7.
Keith Law: Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but why wouldn’t Cole pitch on full rest in game 7?

Kevin: who would you want for the next 10 years? Devers or Torres?
Keith Law: Love both. Probably Torres for position/defense.

Colin: The Padres are screwed with Myers & Hosmer, is the best course of action to run a platoon with them and see what you can salvage? i get the feeling Hosmer would ruin the clubhouse if he were to be platooned.
Keith Law: I think Myers is a release candidate at this point. I doubt it happens, but he’s not even worth the roster spot.

Tom: Trying to lose 15 pounds by year end. Do you recommend any specific low-calorie meals/snacks that’ll tide a normal sized person over for several hours?
Keith Law: Not a nutritionist, but I know from my own perspective, as someone who doesn’t need to lose weight but doesn’t want to gain and also has some minor blood-sugar issues, I do much better when I eat more fiber from whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and nuts/seeds. I also eat yogurt with homemade granola almost every day for lunch.

jk: Keith, who is best positioned to trade for Lindor this offseason and what kind of package would you expect Cleveland to obtain?
Keith Law: Supposedly they’re not going to shop him. I don’t buy that, but that’s the rumor.

Jerry: The Astros don’t seem to be missing any of the bushel full of prospects they gave up for either Verlander or Cole. Why do I get the feeling the Greinke trade may come back to bite them at some point?
Keith Law: They gave up the least for Cole and I think the most for Greinke, but in no deal did they give up more than they should have, IMO.

Ben: Any rooting interest in the World Series? I like when cities that haven’t won in a while get to celebrate.
Keith Law: Same. I don’t care that much either way, but new WS winners are definitely fun.

JR: On twitter (I know, I know) seeing lots of “how does Bryce Harper feel right now?” Honestly, I bet he feels great having $330MM guaranteed and is probably happy and rooting for his former teammates.
Keith Law: Yep. And the Phillies love him, so what’s the problem?

pakkap: pollack, gonsolin, and keibert for mookie make sense? rids LA of an extraneous contract, deltas what they’re going to have to pay mookie to extend him, and gives boston a bottom staff SP/potential closer and a starting catcher. figure betts + cole and LA is set for the offseason.
Keith Law: it makes sense for the Dodgers. It’s a terrible deal for the Sox.

Drew: In his latest column, Boz posits that the Nats are so good because they were willing to buck sabermetric orthodoxy and found market inefficiencies by fielding older players like Sanchez, Cabrera, Zimmerman, Kendrick, and Dozier and focusing on hitting to all parts of the field instead of being so homer reliant. Do you think he’s on to something?
Keith Law: No, since those players were really just a small part of their success, if they were part of it at all. And Kendrick’s season was more of a stone fluke than anything else – he’s 36 and just posted the lowest K% and best average of his career.

Tyler: Does Daulton Varsho have a chance to stick at Catcher?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Dr. Bob: Did you see that Nancy Pelosi took the picture that Trump tweeted of her standing and pointing at him (which he thought would embarrass her) and make it her Twitter cover photo? Serious trolling there.
Keith Law: Yep. Looks like she’s lecturing him in the photo.

Sedona: is KeByran Hayes the future 3B for PIT? Will he develop enough power to start?
Keith Law: Yes, yes.

Bruce: Are you buying Tyler Glasnow long term?
Keith Law: Yes, perhaps not “best pitcher per IP in the majors” good, but good.

Stu: Is there any reason to believe that Buck Showalter can be successful?
Keith Law: With the right personnel, sure. I don’t think Philly is it, though.

Bob: Padres go out and sign Strasburg, and deal for Bryant or Starling Marte, do they make a wild card run?
Keith Law: If they did those things, yes.

Henry: Would Farhan Zaidi not taken the S.F. job if he didn’t have full control? Still surprised he didn’t sell before trade deadline.
Keith Law: Maybe he didn’t like the offers he got?

Ryan: Dillon Tate still a prospect of any kind?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jack: After a disastrous playoffs and nearly 2 decade series winless streak, this offseason is a very important one for AA and the Braves. What should their top priorities be this winter and do you see any of their current prospects playing a large role on the 2020 team? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why is this offseason so important? Because they lost a five-game series they were a few outs away from winning at one point? I don’t agree at all. I think Pache plays quite a bit in the majors in 2020 and at least one of their remaining top arms – Wright more likely than Anderson – does the same.

Eor: Are there any Blue Jays pitching prospects that excite you other than Manaok and Pearson?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay. Patrick Murphy, if healthy.

Michael: Nutritionists generally say that sugar is poison for our bodies, especially in excess. I have a sweet tooth like you. Have you cut back on your sugar consumption (guessing with the granola it’s a no) or do you have any replacements you like?
Keith Law: I don’t think any nutritionists say anything like that. My granola has some sugar but less than just about any commercial brand.

Chris: What are some things that you have recently cooked/baked for the first time that you would do again/never do again? Anything come to mind that you have been meaning to try but just haven’t gotten around to it yet?
Keith Law: Made a genoise layer cake for my girlfriend’s birthday, first time I’d tried that in at least 15 years, and I’m amped to do another one but with a different recipe to try to get a little more body to the cake.
Keith Law: I blame the Great British Baking Show, by the way.

Pat: Fan wanting to watch some actual MLB players here: Is it wrong to want the O’s to sign some competent MLB pitchers to make the 2020 season more watchable? They don’t need to have a $60M payroll, rebuild or not. They still want fans to pay to watch a big league product.
Keith Law: Not wrong at all – and I think having some competent innings guys can help you develop the young pitchers who matter because you’re not overtaxing the rest of the staff.

Trey Harris: Did you see me play at all in the AFL and do you believe that I can hit enough to be serviceable in the majors eventually (even as a bench bat)
Keith Law: There’s a chance, but offspeed recognition remains an open question.

Tracy: Keith, I am looking into reading some science fiction classics, particularly Dune and some of Asimovs earlier works such as Foundation. Have you read any of these? Recommendations?
Keith Law: The first Dune book is great; don’t bother with sequels. Loved the Foundation series, particularly the original trilogy. Other classics I recommend: Stranger in a Strange Land, The Dispossessed, the Left Hand of Darkness, Hyperion, Flow My Tears the Policeman Said or Time Out of Joint.

addoeh: Isn’t every Thomas Boswell article about how someone is going against sabermetric orthodoxy? It’s like he’s constantly mad at math.
Keith Law: Yep, it’s been a crusade of sorts.
Keith Law: It’s a shame as Boswell was once among the most progressive sportswriters in the country.

Sage: Is it still true a bad manager can lose a team many games but a good manager can only win a few games over a season?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so.

Steve: Coming in to the 2016 draft was it perceived as weak? Where was Moniak on your rankings and who did you have at the top?
Keith Law: Very weak and it’s been weaker in hindsight. I had Moniak somewhere in the 5-8 range and Corey Ray at the top. Senzel and Puk have been the two best players from the class. The guy I was WAY too high on was Blake Rutherford, whose power with metal bats has been totally absent in pro ball.

Courtney: Jeter Downs potential star? How do dodgers sort out Lux Downs and Seager?
Keith Law: At least a potential above-average regular. I think you let it sort itself out, see how Seager looks his second year back from surgery, and if he has to move you put Lux at short.

Brent: Are you a fan of the Great British Baking Show? I really like how the show displays good competition where everyone wants everyone to do their best. Less about the contestants and more about the competition.
Keith Law: I am now, and I completely agree.

Michael: Nutritionists do say that unfortunately (link removed)
Keith Law: Come on – you have to be more discerning with your sources than that. Some random television station from a developing country isn’t a reliable source on a subject like this.

Bill: Did you ever read A Confederacy of Dunces? I found to be a wildly entertaining book, and am stunned it took a decade after his death to get published.
Keith Law: Yep, a top 20 all-time novel for me.

Sedona: Do you still see Brenden McKay having #2 upside potential? Or will his low velocity FB push him down a nothch?
Keith Law: Yes, and he doesn’t have a low velocity FB.

Todd: Other than Garcia, Yankees have any upside starter prospects?
Keith Law: Schmidt maybe. Yoendrys Gomez and Roansy Contreras could be too.

Matt: Since the Mets (stupidly) went all in for 2019 with the Cano/Diaz deal and later the Stroman deal, shouldn’t they just double down on 2020 and make a strong offer for Betts? Sure, it will deplete their system even further but they’re pretty effed beyond the short term anyway and maybe they raise a flag before the dark days come back.
Keith Law: Sure. I do think at this point the best option is to just empty the cupboard, as much as I hate that they got to this point in the first place.

Walton: What’s your opinion of Josh Lowe as a prospect? Do you think that he’s made key adjustments recently that have improved his approach or is his recent success too SSS to take into consideration?
Keith Law: Read the AFL post to which I linked at the top of this page. I think he’s the first guy I discussed.

Benji: Klaw, what’s the name of the coffee press or thingy you use again? I’m trying to wean off kurigs
Keith Law: A Hario V25 pour-over cone. Uses paper filters.

Matt: The concept of the Phillies flubbing on their first round picks has come up a bunch in chats this year, and while I won’t deny that none of them look like the type of star you hope to get from a top 10 pick, all of the players (with the exception of Randolph) were taken at least close to where you had them ranked. Is this just a development issue? Or do you consider being unable to develop players, even when drafting properly, part of screwing up the draft?
Keith Law: Moniak wasn’t taken close to where I ranked him either. I do think Bohm is good and will justify being taken 3rd overall. But they have definitely failed to develop some key guys from the draft and international.

PD: Blake Rutherford was a very old HS prospect, right? Will this apply to Witt as well, where he was a lot older and looked much better due to his physical differences?
Keith Law: Rutherford turned 19 a month before the draft; Witt did so a week after his draft. I think it’s always a variable to consider, but not definitive. JT Realmuto was 19 a few months before the draft. I’m very curious to see how Brett Baty, who was about 19.5 at the draft, develops – and how fast the Mets move him.

Barry: I eat yogurt with fruit almost everyday for breakfast. If you’re having yogurt for lunch what do you eat for breakfast? Thanks!
Keith Law: At home, usually a cereal that has at least 3 g of fiber per bowl.

HeHateMeTeam: Are the Cubs one of the teams most affected negatively by the juiced ball? Seems like they already had power and none of those guys took it to the next level. Also didn’t have any pop up power hitters.
Keith Law: Their power has backed up when most teams saw their power increase. Poor timing, to say the least.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo? Will both be top end starters?
Keith Law: Puk looks like a #2, Luzardo has that upside but still has yet to have a healthy season in pro ball.

RE: Sci-fi books: Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Keith Law: Book is good, not one of my favorite PKDs.

addoeh: Super Colon Blow?
Keith Law: I’m convinced!

Nick: Is it just me or does the term “analytics” mean next to nothing now? I see it used a lot in the local media (I’m in Philly) as almost a pejorative term, and the people using it don’t seem to have any clue what they’re actually mad about.
Keith Law: I think that’s absolutely right. If you hear someone using it as a derogatory term, they don’t know what it means. The best concise explanation I could give is that it means using all available information to make better decisions on and off the field. Who in their right mind doesn’t want their favorite team to do that?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be making a formal announcement of my next book in the next week or so, and will also have some fun board gaming pieces for Paste and Ars Technica later this month too. Enjoy your weekends!

Keith Law: What the hell am I trying to say? It’s Klawchat.

BigDaddeh: Should the Mets fire Mickey?
Keith Law: They already did. That’s probably the right move, but he’s also not the reason they missed the playoffs.

Kevin: Tampa Bay Ray new stadium debacle seems to hinge on what city can build them a new stadium first and the team will eventually locate there permanently? Cant see two cities spending that much coin for 40-something games.
Keith Law: I feel like there’s no viable solution in that metro area. Why would any city there waste public funds when there’s a 20 year history of fan indifference? What economic development could they even pretend will come from such an investment?

Dave: What happened to Felix Hernandez? Just too much wear and tear on the arm?
Keith Law: The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

addoeh: How easy is it to make Kurkjian laugh?
Keith Law: He’s a jovial guy. He’s also as nice and kindhearted as he appears to be.

Wil: Years ago, Bill Simmons wrote an article on Grantland about changing the draft to a revolving pick in the attempt to discourage tanking in the NBA. It guaranteed every team a top 6 pick every 5 years. I think the idea had even more merit now for MLB as it might also improve the recent slow free agency periods. What is you take? (Article: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tank… )
Keith Law: I would favor some change to the top of the draft that discourages teams from accepting 110-loss seasons. There are numerous solutions, like a lottery for the top ten picks, or a form of restricted free agency for the top amateurs followed by a regular draft. Decoupling losing from the right to spend more on amateurs would help matters.

Bob: Do you think if the Mariners opened up 2B for Shed Long that he could grow into a solid regular at that spot or is he better fit as a utility guy?
Keith Law: He’s a 40 defender there. I don’t see it.

Phil: True or False: Joey Votto’s seven OBP titles have already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame.
Keith Law: False. No evidence enough voters care about that.

JJ: What’s your guess for Game 3 in Tampa? My prediction, based on twenty years of experience with the franchise: 6,000 fans in attendance, 4,200 of whom are actually wearing Red Sox gear. When does MLB finally pull the plug on this market?
Keith Law: See above. I bet they get 15-20,000 fans. That’s not close to enough.

Brian: Obviously Tommy Edman is not a .304/.350/.500 player going forward, but can he be a useful starter for a playoff team? Or is he more likely a utility guy?
Keith Law: I think utility guy.

Jackie: If JD Martinez opts out of his contract, can he get more than the 3 years/$63 million the Red Sox would pay him if he stayed? His market two winters ago was non-existent, and it’s clear that he’s incapable of playing the field at this point.
Keith Law: Fair question. I keep reading it’s a fait accompli that he opts out, but his market would seem to be limited, no? And he’d be hitting a much more competitive FA market overall, plus the possibility that names like Betts or Lindor will be on the trade market.

Stephen: Now that the New York Metropolitans have moved on from Mickey Callaway, I would think the follow three will be included for new mgr: Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi or Carlos Beltran? Also should the Mets look into Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Beltrán? He has zero qualifications. He’s never coached anywhere, let alone managed.

Sam: If you are the Giants do you give Will Smith a QO? I imagine if they do it would substantially hurt him in free agency and there is a decent chance he would accept it.
Keith Law: The counterargument is that he’s not easily tradeable at that salary, and the Giants would be better served spending that money on just about any other roster spot.

Moe Mentum: Name a musician or band from your teen years (1980s?) that you didn’t fully appreciate at the time until after they were no longer making new music. Talking Heads for me, no question.
Keith Law: The Smiths, although with Moz turning into a white nationalist I find them a bit harder to listen to these days.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller? He’s always been considered a top prospect, but really struggled this year once he reached the majors.
Keith Law: He is a top prospect, the first stint in the majors doesn’t actually tell us that much, but I very much believe he has to develop another third pitch because this is at least three years of him “working on” a changeup that isn’t getting better.

BigDaddeh: Is 9 straight defeats in elimination games SSS?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: 9 straight defeats over how many seasons?

Sedona: Any hope for Raimel Tapia or Tyler O’Neil to be starters within a couple years? OR are they quad guys?
Keith Law: I have more hope for Tapia as he’s a more well-rounded player who can contribute on defense.

Dean Mavrides: Are you buying in on Frankie Montas’ breakout this year or is it due to PED’s & and luck?
Keith Law: I’m not really buying him as a starter.

Rich J: It’s October, so obviously your readers have one question in mind: who are the standouts so far in the AzFL?
Keith Law: No idea. I haven’t been yet.

Tim Robinson: Is this the downside to impeachment – Trump doubling down and committing more crimes even more out in the open?
Keith Law: I mean, I think that’s probably a positive, no? Hope that he does enough to move public opinion further against him?

Santos: Do you watch the statcast broadcast? It’s awesome and I no longer twitch when I listen to baseball announcers
Keith Law: I didn’t last night because I was multitasking and had the game on with the sound off.

Michael: What ramifications do you expect from the California law allowing College Athelets to be paid for use of their name, image and likeness? Will is force a showdown with the NCAA?
Keith Law: I think it’s only positive, but I don’t know how the NCAA will respond (other than assuming they’ll do something anti-player and then give themselves hefty pay raises).

bartleby: wouldn’t the Mets benefit by hiring a manager with actual managerial experience (unlike Mickey), instead of going after a newbie?
Keith Law: Yes. That’s nearly always the best strategy.

Idaho Nuke: It sure looks like it’s Maddon’s job to turn down for LAA. Do you think Girardi manages again?
Keith Law: I know Maddon’s interviewing in San Diego, too. I expect both guys to be in dugouts on Opening Day.

Kik: Do you think Anthony Kay can be a top rotation type starter?
Keith Law: I don’t, but I think he can be a quality id-rotation starter.

HH: Are we headed for an era of tanking/rebuilding/contending/repeat waves for all but the 3-4 richest teams? Seems like that would be rational for almost everyone.
Keith Law: Yes, barring some changes to the system, that seems like the strategy most teams will take, especially since the owners like saving money.

Tim Robinson: The Mets traded away their future for .8 fWAR. If they didn’t make the Kelenic trade, would they have made the playoffs?
Keith Law: That trade was stupid the day they made it, but I don’t think it cost them a playoff berth.

Dr. Bob: Are the Cubs really going to consider the never-managed-or-coached-anywhere, former player David Ross? The recent track record of those guys hasn’t been so good.
Keith Law: Seems like it but I have no inside info on that. When I talk to front office people I don’t ask about rumors that fifty other people are chasing. They get enough of that elsewhere.

Joe: Kershaw’s looping, parabolic lefty curveball–why do lefties seem to be able to throw these while righties do not? I’m not sure if this is camera angle, or small samples, or what, but I’ve been curious why this sort of pitch seems hand-dependent.
Keith Law: It’s not hand-dependent; I think that’s just an availability bias. You remember more of those from lefties.

Jake: What are your thoughts on the strength of this years draft compared to recent yrs? What do you think KC is looking at at #4?
Keith Law: No team is looking at specific players yet.

BD: What does it say for the game when a team like the Red Sox might trade Betts for money relief?
Keith Law: It says the luxury tax is doing exactly what the owners hoped it would do. There’s a baseball argument for trading Betts, but it’s secondary to this financial consideration.

Adam: Do you believe Forest Whitley can still be a consistent starter for the Astros after this year’s disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes.

Sho: Given what he’s been, has Stephen Strasburgh overperformed or underperformed as an overall #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s performed. Neither over nor under.

John: If Yellich had played all 162 could he have beaten Bellinger for MVP in your vote or was Belli pretty far ahead at the point Yellich got hurt?
Keith Law: He had a chance had he played the whole year.

Kevin W: Do you frequent the athletic or the ringer?
Keith Law: I subscribe to the Athletic and read articles there rather often.

Rob: Seems rotten for the angels to fire ausmus after that season, doesn’t seem there was anything he could have done to change that. Do you think he is a scapegoat or maybe the FO or arte didn’t like something behind the scenes?
Keith Law: Probably a scapegoat, but did he show any growth from his time in Detroit? I don’t think he did.
Keith Law: Handsome guy, though.

Eric: I wish I knew when I went to college that Grifting was a potential job opportunity. It seems so fun to just make up things when the facts are in front of you and make boatloads of money from it.
Keith Law: Indeed. More schools should offer it as a major.

Jesse B: Does Victor Robles make enough hard contact to be a .300 hitter at some point?
Keith Law: I would bet no, but it’s not out of the question.

Kevin: When I hear that people say the game is now 3rd in popularity why should I care? It won’t go away and the amount of other fans doesn’t change my love for baseball.
Keith Law: Yeah that’s “please like my sport” nonsense. Baseball remains popular. It could do more to get fans in the seats, and to recruit/retain younger fans, but it’s not dying.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: What do you see as a fair market contract for Rendon, and what teams besides the Nationals are likely to pursue him aggressively?
Keith Law: I’m assuming Boras will be thinking 8/$250MM as a floor, probably asking for more to start. He’ll play at 30 next year, though, so I’m not expecting the length of deals we saw for Machado/Harper last winter. BTW, Rendon was so injury-plagued in his early 20s, but his lowest PA in any of the last four seasons was 597. Give him credit for newfound durability.

John: Seems to me as if the area around Nationals Stadium is an exception to the idea that stadiums don’t fuel economic growth in the area. Any thoughts? Not trying to provoke an argument, and the general rule may still hold; I just find it interesting.
Keith Law: Did the stadium spur that, or other local initiatives to develop a dead area?

Pramit: Do you believe that with heavy bullpen usage and openers that teams may not be developing starters to have enough secondary to turnover a line up 3 times?
Keith Law: If there’s a developmental gap it’s in the minors where pitchers are often restricted to pitch counts of 80 or lower so they don’t learn to turn over lineups.

Eric: Who is your pick to win the WS?
Keith Law: Houston over Tampa, NYY over Minnesota, Houston over NYY. LAD over Washington, St. Louis over Atlanta, LAD over St. Louis. Houston over LAD.

Ben: Why don’t teams simply throw balls to minor leaguers coming to the big leagues until they prove they’re disciplined? It seems like discipline is the main thing most young hitters lack, and we see young hitters come up, start hot, then never find that level of success again when teams stop throwing right at them. There are exceptions for minor leaguers with known discipline, obviously, but it seems like there is a lot of the old school “challenge them” mindset to throw strikes and just see if they can hit it when the opposite may be more successful.
Keith Law: I disagree with the premise that most young hitters lack discipline.

Tim Robinson: Doesn’t Beltran make as much sense as BVW did?
Keith Law: You make a valid point.

JP: Does news of the SI firings today impact your impending free agency on 12/31/19?
Keith Law: Uh, that’s kind of gross. A few dozen people lost their jobs today. This isn’t and shouldn’t be about me.

Eric: Do you see the Mets as a playoff team next year? Is Pete Alonso for real?
Keith Law: He’s for real, although I doubt he hits 53 homers with the 2018 baseball. I don’t think they’re a playoff team as currently constituted, but BVW will certainly make moves this winter. Mind you I didn’t say good moves. Just moves.

Jon V: Cleveland is facing the inevitable with Lindor but have now publicly stated that they won’t shop
Keith Law: I don’t believe that. It makes no sense not to take offers on him.

Eric: I know it’s still months away, but the derek jeter hall of fame voting is going to break the internets, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – he’s going to sail in, probably unanimously now that that seal is broken.

Tom: Should I be encouraged by Pavin Smith’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what is encouraging about it.

Brian: With winter meetings in san diego this year, will you visit any breweries or have a book signing?
Keith Law: Probably neither, sorry. I can’t leave the meetings for that length of time, and I’m not staying extra this year.

Eric: NL Cy Young winner?
Keith Law: I did that column last week.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: What are the requirements for minor league stadia to be acceptable for, say, AA vs. AAA? Wouldn’t it make a ton of sense for the Nationals to use Richmond as a AAA base, and for some more western team to take Fresno? I understand that you’d need to put another team in the AA Eastern League, but some of the affiliations make no sense.
Keith Law: Some is historical, some is driven by market sizes, but yeah, one East team getting stuck with a AAA affiliate in the mountains of Titan is not really very sensible.

Hank: How much do you weigh performance in the AFL vs full season minor leagues (ie Royce Lewis)?
Keith Law: Zero. AFL performance is not predictive: Sample sizes are tiny and competition is highly variable.

John: A different sort of question on Mookie Betts. If we take him at his word about testing the market, then a team is trading only for his 2020 services. That’s still valuable, but it differs from the usual scenario when the trade partner thinks it has a chance at an extension. If that’s the case, then the trade partner has to be a team that’s really close to winning it all now. There really aren’t all that many teams that (a) are in contention, (b) have somewhere to put him, and (c) have major prospects to give. Is it fair to say that it might be harder to trade him than people expect?
Keith Law: That’s a very reasonable argument. I guess I’d counter by saying that teams would make room for a player of Betts’ caliber, even trading the player he might replace, to get one year of possibly 8 WAR.

Joe: Knowing where the Tigers farm system is now, and ownership’s unwillingness to spend in FA, when do you think is a realistic timeline to think the team could contend again? Close to never with this ownership philosophy?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say that but I think they’re more in the 4-5 years away category than closer.

Robert: I heard the Rangers might look to move one of their left handed hitting outfielders. Is Nomar Mazara a good buy low candidate? He’s had a lot of at bats, but is still fairly young.
Keith Law: I wonder if he gets better with a new org, just from a change of scenery/new approach. But maybe this is just what he is.

Jeff: Do you think the Wilpons/BVW combo will make it tough for the Mets to hire a highly sought-after manager? Why would a Maddon or Girardi volunteer to work in that circus?
Keith Law: Money. If they’re willing to pay they’ll get whoever they want.

BE: Avila is talking about not rushing prospects. Is there any reason not to see Mize and Manning in 2020 other than service time manipulation?
Keith Law: Mize ended the year on the shelf and I want to see him fully healthy before I think about a timetable for his debut.

Andy: Can Trammell play CF? In everything you’ve written, he only has the arm for LF, but would his glove play in CF? San Diego has a lot in the corners, but not much in center.
Keith Law: I don’t know anyone who thinks he can play CF.

Patrick: Keith, thx for not just sticking to baseball.
Have to pick options for our next book club–heavy into mystery and romance, but want to branch them out. Anything you might recommend? (I have perused your last Top 100 for tips already!)
Keith Law: For non-fiction, perhaps Amity and Prosperity, this year’s Pulitzer winner. For fiction, how about Elizabeth McCracken’s Bowlaway or Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry?

Andy: The Braves opted to save Soroka for Game 3 due to his home/road splits (4.14 ERA & 1.303 WHIP vs 1.55 ERA & 0.963 WHIP). With a sample size that small, that’s pretty short-sighted, right? Plus, a road playoff atmosphere will be different from any he has ever pitched in.
Keith Law: I don’t think “he can only pitch on the road” is a thing, either.

Ron: Why do you suspect so many sports pundits (mostly white) are so upset about college athletes being able to…..have money? I will never understand why anyone would care about another person’s bank account.
Keith Law: I’m sure race is part of it – at the very least, you would think such white pundits would have a harder time relating to athletes of color, or putting themselves in the athletes’ shoes – but a lot of it is just defending the status quo.

Jim: Love the chats. Re something from last chat… I don’t keep up on all op-ed contributors at the major papers. What became of Bret Stephens? At WSJ he seemed to be reasonable “never-Trumper”. Something change?
Keith Law: Not sure, but now he’s doing videos for PragerU, the alt-right indoctrination video series on YouTube. The Times should absolutely fire him for that. It is incompatible with a job at a respected news outlet.

Buscon Bob: Between Avisail Garcia, Eric Sogard and Travis d’Arnaud, whom should the Rays consider 1st to attempt to sign an extension before FA?
Keith Law: None of the three for me.

Dave: Regarding the Callaway comment above about experience, does that mean major league pitching coach would be below AAA manager in terms of where you’d look to hire?
Keith Law: Yes.

LB: You’re Theo and Jed.
Keith Law: Woof, I have a hard enough time just being one person.

dave-o: Prez Pumpkinhead just requested China to go after Biden- isn’t that exactly what he’s being impeached for? WTF?
Keith Law: Forget it, he’s rolling.

JP: thoughts on the Joker movie?
Keith Law: No interest.

Dave: Is Kyle Lewis a long term solution in Seattle? Or was it just SSS at work?
Keith Law: SSS. Look at his minor league line from this year.

Ron: Betts for Verdugo, Ruiz, and Josiah Gray. Who says no
Keith Law: The Dodgers.

Jon V: Some interesting comments from Tito on Jake Bauers’ exit interview. Was his attitude a factor in TBs decision to move on from him?
Keith Law: I didn’t hear that specifically, but he did voice his displeasure with Tampa’s attempts to change his launch angle to get him more power. (That lack of power is why I never ranked him that highly; 1b only, not good there, has plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills but never projected for power.) Maybe that was a factor?

pj: Do you think pitchers with really good sliders were affected the most by the new ball? and is there any hope that with a new new ball some of these pitchers will revert back to their pre 2019 form? askin for some friends (diaz, thor)
Keith Law: I have heard this hypothesis several times from baseball people. It is plausible, at least. I’d like to see some evidence to support it.

Sage: KB + Happ for Betts ?
Keith Law: I don’t see how that helps Boston.

HH: Re more young MLB fans: Are Saturday night games really THAT much more profitable than Saturday day games? Saturday day games are the only time I’d consider taking my kid, and there are almost never games then.
Keith Law: I thought the lack of Saturday day games was a function of the Fox TV contract.

Jeff: Did the Mets deplete their farm system beyond the point of being able to make a trade offer for Betts?
Keith Law: Definitely not. Smith + Mauricio + Szapucki for a year of Betts is at least a fair proposal, even if the Red Sox might want more.

addoeh: Some of the arguments against the California college athletes bill have come pretty close to advocating for actual socialism.
Keith Law: From people who would probably tell you they’d sooner turn to satanism, too.

Todd: Think Betances gets a QO or hits free agency?
Keith Law: Guessing FA but I’m not sure.

Buscon Bob: Why is Trevor Bauer getting his own TV show?
Keith Law: Radio, right? Still, I don’t know. There are many other players more deserving of the podium.

Troy: Better next 5 year run: Flaherty or Buehler?
Keith Law: Love both. Would lean Buehler on pure stuff.

Ted: if you’re Alex A. you gotta be sliding into the DMs of yet-to-be-named-Red Sox-GM’s every day this winter right? Or would adding Mookie make the Braves too much fun for the universe to allow
Keith Law: They do seem like an ideal fit. They can give Boston young starters, and they have that spot open in RF.

Troy: Do you think Dakota Hudson has shown enough to be a mainstay in the Cardinals rotation?
Keith Law: No.

Regret: I know the Kelenic trade gets most of the “sh**iest move” press, but the Downs/Gray deal for the Reds has to be just as bad, no? Unjustifiable the second it was done–and horrific in retrospect.
Keith Law: Agreed, and then compounded by trading Trammell at his lowest value point for a fourth starter.

Jason: I asked about Xavier Edwards in Periscope yesterday, and you correctly pointed out he played more at 2B than SS. Now that Luis Urias has been freed, could he or Edwards play CF to get both of them into the lineup?
Keith Law: Edwards seems more suited to CF, although they’re at least two years apart developmentally.

Scott: Is Corbin Burnes still a starter for you long term? IIRC Woodruff followed a similar development pattern on his way up.
Keith Law: If healthy, absolutely.

Stu (UK): We chatted last week about my upcoming visit to the USA where I’ll be attending a World Series game- interesting insight into Minneapolis! Thank you! Where would I NOT want to go? Has to be Tampa, no? -Cheers, Stu
Keith Law: Tampa would be the worst of the 8 cities left, since the team itself actually plays in St. Petersburg, the stadium isn’t near anything worthwhile, and getting around that area is not easy.

Eric: When you listen to audiobooks, do you actively listen, or passively listen while doing other things? If the later, how well do you feel you retain the book vs. reading?
Keith Law: I listen while driving, cleaning, or cooking. While driving it’s passive listening, but the other tasks let me focus more on the book. Current audiobook is Josh Levin’s The Queen, which is very very good.

Fellow Little Man: We have a AAA quality park here in AA Hartford, just a hop, skip and a jump from DC. I nobody here has any say over these decisions but if I keep putting it out into the world maybe it’ll happen.
Keith Law: Incredible park. One of my favorites.

Chris: A bit of a delayed reaction here but my nieces and nephews won’t let anyone else make pancakes bc of my whipped egg whites. Glad to know the technique is Klaw-approved!
Keith Law: Huge difference. Do that and cook them in a thin layer of bacon fat for the best scratch pancakes ever.

Tom C: But you will leave the meetings to go to Juniper & Ivy right
Keith Law: I have to eat, Tom.

Tom: Re Pavin Smith: I was referring to his improved Avg and OBP, while still maintaining low strikeout rate, against AA pitching. I thought it was encouraging
Keith Law: No power. He’s a mediocre 1b without power.

Buscon Bob: Is 2020 the year that Tim Tebow decides that he should quit sports?
Keith Law: Maybe Callaway was sacked for opposing a Tebow callup.

JG: If you’re the Twins and could only keep one: do you extend Rosario or Buxton?
Keith Law: Extend Buxton, trade Rosario.

Andy: The President is using Nickleback memes.
Keith Law: Fitting.

Zach: Eh Prager is garbage brain washing, but it’s more hard conservative than alt-right
Keith Law: They’ve really veered into alt-right crapola lately.

John: Any recommendations via your daughter for YA fiction or fiction that’s adult-level reading but thematically appropriate for teens?
Keith Law: I’ll ask her what she recommends when she’s home from school. I know she read & liked my friend Kelly Swails’ This May Go on Your Permanent Record. She loved the Marissa Meyer Lunar Chronicles series too.

Richie O: Are you still upset at the Jays for firing you?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t fire me, I quit to join ESPN … most fired people don’t start a new job the day after their last one at the old company. Facts still matter around here, Dick.

addoeh: Hey Keith, you live in Delaware. Could investigate the Bidens as well?
Keith Law: I have some very good dope about Ashley Biden’s sixth birthday party. Just waiting for the New York Times to call.

JL: Re: Soroka and the road… I don’t know if there’s truth to it, but David O’Brien and Eric O’Flaherty have mentioned on a podcast that some Braves pitchers believe the mound is too short in ATL. Could be Soroka is not as comfortable on his home mound. Just the messenger. Do you have thoughts on that as a possibility?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. If the mound is low, and it’s bothering THEIR OWN pitchers, you don’t think the Atlanta brass would address it?

Matt: Speaking of Bill Simmons, didn’t you guys use to try to have a longest chat record? I think he won w/ like 6 hours but I could be wrong.
Keith Law: I used to do long chats but he always had the record as far as I know.

MIke: At what point does tanking become a diminishing return? I mean the Blue Jays can’t be thrilled about losing 95 games for the priveledge of drafting 6th (and its accompanying draft pool).
Keith Law: Agreed, and that fan base seems like one of the angriest at the current leadership.

Mike: Acuna/Pache/Betts OF? Yikes.
Keith Law: Right? Will they give up any doubles all year?

Robert: Did you see the Phil Rogers take where he asserted that the Cubs collapse in the last two seasons was a result of taking Russell off shortstop for Baez in the second half last year? Quality analysis—playing the better player instead of the domestic abuser leads to losses.
Keith Law: I saw it, but it wasn’t backed with evidence. That claim requires support.

Andrew: Bryan Reynolds…is he a legit MLB hitter?
Keith Law: MLB regular, yes. .400 BABIP guy, no.

JA: Any interest in returning to a front office role in the future?
Keith Law: Not really.
Keith Law: I never say never, but that fits my current life less than it ever has.

A-A-Ron: Is your name pronounced “Claw” or “Kay-law”?
Keith Law: Rhymes with “claw.” It’s been my nickname since high school.

Rob: Nice call on Jose Garcia prior to season. Can he be an above average regular at shortstop for the Reds?
Keith Law: Sure sounds like it. I should share credit with Eric Longenhagen, who was on him just as early as I was.

Sedona: BA seems to be buying in on Bryan Mata? What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I have delivery questions. Great arm though.

John: Do you have any “never miss” podcasts that aren’t really well known? I do a ton of driving and would like to put a new one in the rotation. Thanks.
Keith Law: I listen to The Hidden Brain, Grierson & Leitch, and BBC’s The Inquiry, which are all weekly. I subscribe to some others that come and go, like Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot, and have done some single-season ones too.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: Why do any Democrats think the impeachment process is a bad idea, or that they should whip through it as quickly as possible? At the very worst, you’re getting all of the evidence (that you look for, at least) out into public record and forcing the GOP to defend Cheeto Benito’s actions before voters. People talk about his popularity, but Nixon was WAY more popular pre-hearings than Trump ever was, and look how public opinion turned against him.
Keith Law: This is my thought exactly. I’m neither a historian nor a political pundit, but my common sense meter goes bananas at the thought of a deliberate, thorough impeachment hearing.

Joe: Should the Phils dump Klentak/McPhail, Or Kapler? Or clean house with all of them? Should the injuries spare Kapler?
Keith Law: Keep them all. Who do you blame for the whole bullpen getting hurt?

Tom C: I was reading how attendance hit a 7 year low this year, with one theory being fans don’t like the happy fun ball results. But looking at the standings, there seems to be a lot of lousy to middling teams, and that would seem to me to drop it more because what’s the incentive to go watch teams like that?
Keith Law: Agreed – who is buying a season ticket package, even a partial one, to go see a team that isn’t trying to win and doesn’t bring up its prospects because service time.

Nick: Do you think Marcus Wilson is good enough to be an everyday starter in Boston?
Keith Law: I do not. .319 OBP in AA with a huge K% doesn’t bode well.

Bob: Forest Whitley seems to be pitching well again in the AFL. What does he need to do to give the Hou FO confidence that he can contribute in the rotation next year?
Keith Law: Just pitch well, really. I think they were ready to give him 10-15 starts this year until he struggled, and I don’t know if that was the Happy Fun Ball, or some physical issue, or something else.

Andrew: Random Question–I feel like its rare to find Left handed Catchers…is there a baseball reason for that, like its harder to throw the ball to a certain base- etc.
Keith Law: A left-handed thrower with that kind of arm strength probably ends up on the mound as a kid.

Ryan V.: I came across this longform story about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. I, for one, am *super* proud to live in a nation where the administration cares not a whit about the murder of a U.S. resident by a foreign government… https://www.insider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10
Keith Law: Thanks, I’ll check this out. And yeah, we used to stand for some things.

Bill: In terms of music, do you have any guilty pleasures (songs or bands) that you wouldn’t be overly eager to disclose to others?
Keith Law: You see my monthly and annual playlists – I don’t hide anything on there. If I like a pop song, it goes on the lists. Someone will always make a derisive comment but my tastes are what they are.

James: Do you think the Fair pay to Play act could potentially influence tough sign HS draft prospects in CA? Could they use it as leverage to get more $$$ from MLB teams?
Keith Law: I hope so, but college baseball players don’t have the personal revenue potential of football/basketball players.

Mark Emmert: How dare college athletes try to make money off their name and likeness, that should only be for the schools to do!
Keith Law: And for you personally, of course.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to book writin’, although I’m near the finish line, at least. I appreciate all of your questions and will be back writing for ESPN+ next week after I visit the AFL. Enjoy your weekends!

My ESPN+ column listing my (hypothetical) postseason awards ballots went up this morning.

Keith Law: Birth. School. Klawchat. Death.

addoeh: Who would bring back the Cubs a greater return; Baez or Bryant?
Keith Law: I have to think Baez given positional scarcity/flexibility, right?

Sad Canadian: Hi Keith. I live in a country where the voters are probably going to re-elect as Prime Minister a “woke bae” who has been found to have, on at least 3 occasions, worn blackface. Any reason why I shouldn’t dig a very large hole and hide in it for, I don’t know, forever?
Keith Law: It does depend a bit on the alternative, no? I mean, I’d vote for Woke Bae if it were him vs. Trump.

Sam: Who do you think is more likely to still be employed as manager of their current team this time next week: Joe Maddon or Mickey Callaway?
Keith Law: Maddon. Not that I entirely blame Callaway for the Mets missing the playoffs, but I feel like he’ll be the scapegoat.

Brian G: Good day, Keith – CBA expires season after next I believe. Rough odds we’ll have a work stoppage? (Full disclosure: I have cc’d Rudy Giuliani and Willy Barr on this message to you, normal stuff.)
Keith Law: excellent, I can trust those two guys to keep a secret. I say 20% odds. I hope I’m being pessimistic.

Nelson: Despite the juiced ball, why has there has been only 1 50HR season in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: Well, two of the players most likely to get to 50+ missed too much of this season to injuries to do so. We’ve also got a player at 49 this year, and in 2017 we had two guys cross 50 (the same two who missed part of this year). But I think the best explanation is that juicing the ball isn’t going to help every player exactly the same way, right? It’s not some linear function where we just add X feet of distance or multiply every distance by (1+x) where x is somewhere between 0 and 0.2 or something.

Mike: With Giminez coming soon, do you think Rosario can move to CF? Unfortunately, Cano will be holding onto 2nd base for a while longer.
Keith Law: Gimenez had a .309 OBP in AA, and doesn’t project to hit for power. I don’t think he’s coming soon.

mark: My kids are big pancake fans. I find mine tend to be a bit flat. What is the secret to a big fluffy pancake?
Keith Law: Separate the eggs, then whip the egg whites (with a pinch of cream of tartar) to stiff peaks before folding them into the rest of the batter.

Carl: Tommy Edman more than a 4th OF for the next few years?
Keith Law: I think he’s an extra guy, not a regular.

John : What are your thoughts on the dynasty fantasy baseball industry and how it affected your industry? Your articles and rankings (along with others ie. BA, Pipeline) are the main tools used in group chats, trade proposals, etc. etc. Would you participate in some way within this community?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy, but of course I am happy to have folks read & use my content for that.

Sedona: Has Tony Gonsolin shown enough to win a rotation spot next year? What do you think his ceiling is?
Keith Law: Ceiling of mid-rotation starter. Five extra points for the hair.

Sam: The Giants will undoubtedly extend a QO to Maddison Bumgarner. Considering his declining analytics, age and the amount of innings he has thrown do you see much a market for him this offseason. Is he going to be this years Dallas Keuchel where he may have to wait until after the draft to sign because of the QO? Thanks
Keith Law: Keuchel was hurt a bit by concerns about his injury history and durability. I don’t think Bumgarner faces either, although I agree with your points about declining fundamentals and general workload.

Buscon Bob: Position players who can draw walks and hit for power are seemingly the must-have for all baseball teams, why does it seem as if Avila is allergic to this in Detroit?
Keith Law: I think the Tigers are targeting different players than the rest of the industry across the board, and I don’t exactly know why. It does seem like, in the draft at least, they tend to take guys who are more famous – and more toolsy – than guys who pass the sort of contemporary filters teams use, which includes Trackman or similar data.

Sedona: Amed Rosario has taken a huge step offensively this year at age 23. He’s improved his #’s year over year. What do you think his ceiling will be?
Keith Law: I think by 26-27 he’ll be a star. I am no longer sure where he’ll play, as he has regressed on defense since reaching the majors, and I don’t know if 1) I overrated his defensive ceiling or 2) the Mets are just not good at developing gloves.

Aaron: Joey Votto recently mentioned that he would rather retire (quit) than struggle thru the last years of his contract. The reds could never publicly support this. Buttttttttttttt, what percentage chance do you think they quietly hope he does this before his play turns into a Albert Pulojis type situation (or do you think it does with him).
Keith Law: I’m sure they hope he does so, or takes a buyout, or there’s an injury that gets them an insurance payment.

JR: I’m trying to reconcile this Mets season. On the one hand, it was very entertaining with some great performances by deGrom, Alonso, McNeil, Conforto. On the other hand, nearly everything went right with the starting rotation and the key positional players were mostly healthy and this is the best they could do (obviously the bullpen weighed them down). There is every reason to expect some regression next year – especially from the rotation and they’ve sacrificed their top prospects in the meantime. In sum, I enjoyed this season but the short term benefit does not outweigh the long term cost they paid to field this team.
Keith Law: I agree, but I think they’ll go all in for 2020 now that they’ve traded Kelenic/Dunn and acquired Stroman (trading Kay and SWR). Because they’ve gutted their system – which still has some prospects of value – they’ve increased their incentive to win in the short term. The long term looks much worse.

Brad: Keith, I think Trump relishes this latest development: (1) He KOs Biden, who he considers the main opponent, with lies and smears; and (2) He again sucks out the room’s oxygen by dominating the news with his persecution complex while Dem candidates and key issues again get bumped off the airwaves.
Keith Law: Thirteen months before the election probably mitigates your second concern. As for Biden, uh, okay, bye.

Corey: If a billionaire with a sports empire who owns one of the richest clubs in pro sports trades off one of the best 5 players in the game in his prime to save $ + get under an arbitrary threshold, i’m thinking it’s time he sell the team Is Boston really going to do something that dumb ?
Keith Law: There’s a good baseball rationale for trading Betts, but they have to get an impressive return for him, and that’s not easy – also, they don’t have a GM yet.

Dean Mavrides: Is Vidal Brujan TB’s future 2b?
Keith Law: Yes.

Craig: Dom Smith for Trent Grisham. Who says no?
Keith Law: Does Grisham fit the Mets? Not a bad deal for value but I’m not sure it addresses a need for NY.

Buscon Bob: Joe Ryan or Shane Baz, better floor and better ceiling?
Keith Law: Baz better both. Ryan’s a prospect though.

Ben: Can Mauricio Dubon be a legit starter, or is he a utility guy at best?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance he starts. Love the player, will get the most out of his tools.
Keith Law: Turns out the electric kettle only works if you plug it in!

Nathan: I noticed Arraez not in the top 3 for AL ROY? How far behind the other 3 was he, and can he be anything more than a good UT going forward? His contact rates are insane and he’s been walking
Keith Law: I only ranked 3, sorry, I didn’t rank anyone past that and I don’t think he’s ahead of any of those guys (not by WAR, certainly). Probably a good UT, chance for a regular (grade 55 ceiling, if you are inclined that way).

Joe: I’m not sure if you want to comment, but: do you have a list of things (not including money) that you’d like to have (e.g. your own podcast) if you returned to ESPN?
Keith Law: I do have a list, but I don’t know that I should share it. The people who would make such a decision know what matters to me.

Ken: with the Orioles farm system in the bottom 5 pre 2019 draft and moving to the mid teens post draft. Is there anything reason they shouldn’t have a top system system this time next year
Keith Law: They’re in the mid-teens? I think they’ve improved, but I haven’t reranked.

John: 2020 Red Sox first baseman — FA signing, or Chavis/Travis?
Keith Law: I could see them trading Betts and then signing a 1b. I’d like to see Chavis get that shot, though.

Dallas: The NBA today has come out and said that everybody has to give their exact age and height; no more fudging. I’m 5’7 and 3/4″; if the NBA doesn’t list me at 5’9″, I riot. Thanks for your support.
Keith Law: Can we do that in baseball? And add weight?

Derek: Is this enough to get republicans to stand up or will they just be concerned about it and move on?
Keith Law: My guess is they just voice concern and continue to confirm appointees. If the House impeaches Trump, however, we’ll actually force everyone to make some public stand.

Brian: Gleyber Torres has a 125 wRC+ on the year but it goes down to 103 if you remove games vs the Orioles. Which do you think is closer to his true talent level?
Keith Law: I think he’s closer to the latter, but his ceiling is the former and then some.

xxx(yyy): Good Afternoon Keith! I have an itch to make some new stuff but not sure what to make…where do you look for new culinary ideas/recipes/food?
Keith Law: Either from things I eat at restaurants that inspire me, or when I see a recipe online/in a magazine that really catches my eye. I did that last night with something I saw in Bon Appetit, chicken legs braised in coconut milk and thai green curry paste. It was good but I think needed more salt and a lot more lime juice than just “serve with lime wedges.” Good with rice to soak up the cooking liquid.

Joules: Hey Keith. If the Braves extend Donaldson should they seek to move Riley or is he more of a bench bat at this point?
Keith Law: Could try Riley in RF, or keep him as Donaldson insurance. I feel like his trade value would be slightly depressed after the rough rookie year.

Eric: My wife and I are thinking about a move from the big city (LA) to a more rural/smaller town within the next few years. We have two little kids. Any advice on a decision like this, since you have made a number of moves over the years, and settled in a smaller city?
Keith Law: I’m really close to Philly, and in the NY-Washington belt you’re never really far from a big city, so I get the best of both worlds. But there are some wonderful small cities around the country that still offer a lot of the art, culture, food, etc. I’d want. Nashville, Louisville, Minneapolis, hell even Omaha (not very diverse, otherwise wonderful) have all impressed me on my travels.

Dave.: Trout or Bregman for MVP?
Keith Law: That column went up today.

xxx(yyy): what is (or should be) the next logical step for Lauren Mayberry?

girl has 70+ grade vocal talent but has probably done all she can with CHVRCHES at this point, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, I think she’s constrained by their musical style and also seemed to mail in the lyrics on the last album.

Jason: Do you have any sense of why you were shut out on awards voting two years in a row? Is it just random or is there some metric by which they select the writers who vote for particular awards?
Keith Law: (shrug)

Kevin: Tigers have 1st pick in next year’s draft. Narrative suggests Torkelson is pick for a position player starved farm system but could Austin Martin uptick in power and be choice? Any other reasonable possibilities now?
Keith Law: Torkelson is famous, not necessarily the clear 1-1. It’s a loaded class with college bats and pitching, and I think it’s folly to just assume Torkelson is the clear top guy right now when there are plenty of other candidates.

Rob: If you’re the angels do you pay Cole $250 million this off-season? I know they need pitching but I’m uneasy, should I not be?
Keith Law: You should be uneasy but he is by far the best fit for them.

Brian: Small sample (less than 50 games), but is there any indication that Bo can stick at short?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he will.

Brian: what’s your top 3 MLB stadiums strictly based on food and drink options
Keith Law: I very rarely eat in MLB stadiums, but if I do I find a local vendor in the park.

Dallas: It’s no secret that HS RHP are incredibly volatile. I know last year’s draft didn’t have a top of the draft HS RHP but do you think the days of HS RHP going in the Top 10 are gone?
Keith Law: Not gone but definitely trending down. There will be years where the college crop disappoints and HS P get elevated, though.

TP: Agree that BVW got fleeced in the Cano/Diaz trade. What should the Mets have offered at the time to get a deal done? Not saying it was a good idea, but how much did they overpay?
Keith Law: It was all Kelenic for me. Take him out of the deal, replace him with some other prospect from their system, it’s nowhere near as bad.

Ben: In your opinion, is an offensive “core” of Riley Greene, Paredes, & Tork (or any other 1-1 bat) a good enough compliment to Mize, Manning, Skubal, Wentz, etc. to make a winning baseball team? The Tigers would have a lot of money to spend as well on additional bats as well
Keith Law: I think you’re overrating that offensive core. They’ll have money, but they’ll have to make better decisions on hitters.

Jerry: I’m a 50-something unapologetic progressive. But even I can see that the upcoming, imminent collapse of the gop is probably not a good thing for the country. Or am I overrating the appeal of checks and balances from opposing sides/povs?
Keith Law: I am hopeful a more rational conservative party will emerge after this is over – one that argues for smaller government, say, but doesn’t deny science or oppose basic human rights for anyone other than straight white men.

Gest : Who do you like more in 2020, Giolito or Paddack?
Keith Law: Giolito, although bear in mind he’ll pitch in the AL in a good hitters’ park, while Paddack will be in the NL in a good pitchers’ park, so if this is a fantasy question I might go the other way.

Phil: True or False: Bryce Harper is having a pretty damn fine season.
Keith Law: True.

Gest : Do you play the Catan expansions? Would you say it’s worth the added investment?
Keith Law: They make the game longer, so while I like their concepts I don’t play with them.

Sage: Any tips to change chords quicker?
Keith Law: Practice, and maybe considering alternate fingerings that set you up for the next chord.

Kendra: I get that reasonable minds can disagree on things, but how did we get to the point where if you are a dem the sky is blue and if GOP it’s green? Objectively speaking both the Muller report and the whistleblower report show impeachable offenses. It’s so sad to see the “greatest country” on earth be a banana republic and “reputable” men behave the way they are. Not one GOP rep asked a question about the actual report today when talking to the DNI. It’s insane.
Keith Law: We got here because it worked for the GOP. Their irrational statements are rational if you assume their sole goal is to get and hold office. If people stopped voting for them when they said climate change was a hoax or handwaved away Trump’s various offenses, they’d change their tune. Political parties are pretty responsive to voter habits. If the GOP gets trounced in 2020, they’ll pivot.

Adam: What band has had the most influence over your musical taste?
Keith Law: I would say Nirvana, specifically with Nevermind, did the most to form my musical taste as an adult, both for the specific sound of the album and in creating a still-ongoing interest in finding new music outside of the mainstream.

FTN: Keith, is Austin Hays back to being a top 25 prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: Well, he never was one, so … no.

Dallas: If the current state of baseball remains, the home run numbers are really going to skew arbitration values. I think we may see a lot of hearings this off-season because players like to go off of good seasons and I think the LRD is going to want to curb values. Only way to do that is to go and win arb cases to prove your point.
Keith Law: It’ll be hard in year one because you use comparables from the recent past and so many current players will have higher HR and SLG than the players to whom they’re being compared from 1, 2, and 3 years back.

Mitchell: I see many (far too many, imo) Brewer fans that do not like to give Craig Counsell any credit for the way he manages the Brewers. I’m not sure how much of an impact a manager can truly have, but it appears his strategy, especially in pitcher usage, has paid great dividends. How much credit does Counsell deserve?
Keith Law: He’s good, no? I think he’s done a really nice job, and has evolved over his tenure.

Mike: Vlad is going to be fine…….right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Do you (and perhaps your ESPN) colleagues negotiate directly with the company, or do you have an agent?
Keith Law: I have an agent who negotiates with the ESPN talent office. My boss isn’t directly involved, and I’m not really either. It’s better for maintaining these relationships going forward.

Kendra: My son’s friend is a really sweet, kind kid. I was hanging out with his parents and the Dad called a NFL player the n word. I told him that I find that talk objectionable, ended my time with him and don’t plan on hanging out again. I agree with you in cutting racists out of your life, but what would you do if this was your daughter’s friend? Does she still get to play with him?
Keith Law: I’d probably decline to let my daughter go to that house again, knowing that such language is probably typical (you don’t just bust out that word in front of company).
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say she couldn’t be friends with the kid, though.

Sedona: Do you see similarities between Paddack and Jefferies?
Keith Law: I do not.

Ben: Keith, regarding your response about the Tigers, would Torkelson be a more likely 1-1 candidate for the Tigers than anyone else? Famous, and loud tools, but with positional/value concerns that a more modern FO would shy away from?
Keith Law: Heh, I didn’t think of that, but it’s a good point. I think the industry sense is that the Tigers are a good bit behind other teams in the analytics department.

John: Any rumblings about who the Phillies are considering for the Almaraz vacancy?
Keith Law: Yes, but nothing I can share, sorry.

Bill: Can we start with the idea that a U.S. President can’t ever have a conversation with another foreign leader about investigating his opponent…and go from there? I can’t believe we even have to argue that point.
Keith Law: Well, we had previously said that a US President had to divulge his tax returns, and divest himself of most of his assets, and not use the office for personal financial gain, yet here we are.

dave: Did you see bernie sanders tweet saying Billionares should not exist?? smh..
Keith Law: I did. I understand his point, although I’m not sure that sound byte is going to hit well with enough voters to make it beneficial. People get to billion-dollar wealth because our economic system allows it, and because our capital gains tax rate is so low.

Zac: Jack Morris just said if the Tigers rank Torkelson and Hancock the same they should take the pitcher because he says pitching prospects hold more value than hitters…What are your thoughts on that?
Keith Law: I know you’re shocked, but he has it backwards.

jimmyb: As a pretty accomplished home chef, I’m hoping you can help me with something I’m struggling with. I’ve been using (brand) for dinnertime, and really am enjoying the convenience and ease of meal prep, but without sacrificing complexity or flavor. However, I feel like I’m cheating. I’ve got a busy schedule, so meal planning is kind of out of the question – is there something wrong with using these services?
Keith Law: Sorry, I took the brand out just so it doesn’t look like an ad, but jimmyb is talking about one of those companies that deliver ingredients and recipes to you. I see absolutely nothing wrong with using them if you’re happy with the ingredient quality. You’re cooking, and that’s better than eating out or eating lots of highly processed foods.

Chris: Do you see the baseball changing next year?
Keith Law: Yes but I have no idea how.

Ron: Taking my 10 year old daughter to Cooperstown next month – Have not been there for 25 years maybe (all I remember is the who’s on first movie) – any suggestions on exhibits to avoid and must see – thanks
Keith Law: I actually haven’t been since 1989.
Keith Law: It’s not close to me … or to anything else.

Moe Mentum: Which movies from your own childhood (70s or 80s) have you shared with your daughter? And were they met with adulation or contempt?
Keith Law: She bailed on the Dark Crystal! That was a bummer. But she loved Who Framed Roger Rabbit? and I loved it just as much as an adult.

JR: Do you cook as much as you used as a single guy? Obviously if you are with your daughter/GF I’m sure you still do, but do you enjoy “cooking for one” or do you eat out more instead? If so, what’s your game plan when cooking solo? small portions or plan on leftovers?
Keith Law: Plan on leftovers, usually. Good nights to experiment; I can always feed myself if something goes horribly wrong. Now that the season is ending I’ll also probably go see some movies in Philly on those nights and eat up there.

Dallas: According to report from Tim Britton on the Athletic, the Mets worked with Amed Rosario on positioning his feet. Since the work, I’ve noticed his DRS which was horrendous has basically stayed the same while his UZR has improved to just about average. I think a little more experience for Amed may end up in making your grades on him look good.
Keith Law: I didn’t see that, but thank you, I’m glad to hear it as I saw Rosario as a prospect and never thought he’d struggle this much in the field.

Chris: O/U on Wheeler total dollars this offseason: $65M
Keith Law: Buster thinks over and he tracks this more than I do.

Stu: Do either Zach Collins or Jake Rogers have futures besides maybe backup catching?
Keith Law: Rogers is a perfect backup for me – good defensive catcher without much bat. Collins is a really bad catcher with power and I don’t know what that is in MLB today

Chris: O/U McNeil BA in 2020: .300
Keith Law: Probably the under; he’s way under that in the second half. Seems like he’s selling out just a little for power, which isn’t a bad tradeoff.

Nick: Hey KLaw, no question, I just wanted to say thanks for all you do. We had a very slight dustup a few years ago when I was in college over Austin Romine and his defensive abilities at catcher. All these years later, I just wanted to say, you were very right at the time. I subscribe to insider entirely for your content. And your openness with mental health has helped me a lot. Thanks again, I really enjoy reading your work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t remember the dustup but I’m glad I was right. (I kid!)

Joe: Do team executives from losing clubs believe the only way to become competitive is to lose as many games as possible for several years in order to build their prospect base? Since Houston and the Cubs were successful, it seems like this is a road map for many teams.
The system has to change – five teams began this season in a race to the bottom and its not likely to change next year. As much as I hate the NBA lottery system, it seems like the way to go – MLB should provide no incentive to build a last place team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: It’s an easy (lazy?) strategy. I would love to see MLB alter the top of the draft to discourage this.

TomBruno23: Great call on Omaha, we took our three kids (ages 7,5,3) there last Thanksgiving weekend and were very impressed with all the things to do and food to eat)
Keith Law: Very walkable downtown with lots to do/eat. Great board game cafe maybe 10 minutes outside of downtown called Spielbound.

Jw: Wait, you were asked a question about coming back to ESPN. What did I miss? You posted a story on espn today. So confused.
Keith Law: Sorry to confuse everyone – I am still at ESPN, but my contract is up on December 31st. I have made no decisions on my future yet.

Todd: Josh Stowers or Caanan Smith legit OF prospects for the Yankees?
Keith Law: I mentioned Smith in a previous chat – I think he’s a potential extra guy, maybe a little more. Not a Stowers believer.

Hector: Would a package starting with Vaughn and Madrigal be enough to get Mookie on the South Side. Would it be worth it for the White Sox with no assurances Mookie re-signs with them
Keith Law: I don’t see what Madrigal does for the Red Sox.

Arnold: Just curious…who are the top high school or college prospects that you hope to personally go see in the Spring?
Keith Law: I’ll decide that as we get closer; it depends as much on budget and my own schedule – I have a book coming out in April, and that will require some of my time too – as anything else.

Drew: Are you a Baroness fan, and if so, what are your thoughts on their latest record?
Keith Law: I’ve listened to a bunch of their previous stuff but nothing ever grabs me. It’s great from a technical perspective but I don’t connect with the songs.

Sedona: Has Brady Singer’s AA performance changed your valuation at all?
Keith Law: No, since nothing about him has changed.

Joey: How do you grade pitchers deliveries? You talk a lot about “bad delivery” but you never once have indicated what it is you like/dislike
Keith Law: That’s utterly and completely false. When I write up players, I explain what I do and don’t like about their deliveries.
Keith Law: If you’re only reading my chats, well, the bulk of my content is on ESPN.com.

Jeff: Is Tatis the most probable candidate to be a perennial MVP the next 10 years?
Keith Law: Acuna certainly gives him a run for his money there.

Ryan: What do you think the floor is for Tatis next season. 30/30 with maybe outside shot at 40/40 if he stays healthy for the whole season?
Keith Law: I wonder if they try to get him to steal a bit less so he doesn’t get hurt.

J.: Weeks ago you mentioned something about the Tigers not having any all-time draft busts – care to share the reason why?
Keith Law: I didn’t say that.

Stu (UK): I’m going to a World Series game! What city should I be hoping for? What would be most disappointing? -Cheers, Stu
Keith Law: I mean, hard to beat NY or LA. Oakland means you can stay in San Francisco. Don’t sleep on Minneapolis which is a wonderful city, even when it’s cold.

Buddy: Scherzer is still great obviously, but lefties roughed him up a bit this year. Any concern on your end?
Keith Law: Not yet. One-year platoon splits can be misleading.

Joey Joe Joe: Jakson Reetz back to being a prospect?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jeff: A lot of comparisons between Judge and Alonso – is Judge the better overall player?
Keith Law: Fully healthy, yes.

Zach: Re: Meal Prep. I used meal prep in the past to learn new recipes and/or cooking techniques. Not to use 52 weeks a year. Sometimes cookbooks can be too intimidating, it’s different when the ingredients are already there and you’re “forced” to try
Keith Law: Great point. I’m never going to shame anyone for cooking their way and not “my” way. Hell, my way is a bit over the top because I work from home and I can start dinner at 2 pm if I want.

Nick: Fan of The Good Place? Final season premier tonight!
Keith Law: I am, but haven’t watched S3 yet. That’s a show I have to binge … the episode cliffhangers stress me out.

Todd: If you think billionaires should exist, something inside you is broken
Keith Law: That’s not helpful either. There is actual research on the harm of income inequality, such as in rising crime rates, but simply attacking billionaires for being billionaires isn’t going to change anyone’s minds.

dave: whens the last time a team had a 1-2 punch like the stros do/ are they WS faves for you?
Keith Law: I would pick them right now but I don’t really think there’s such a thing as a playoff “favorite” since any team that gets into the playoffs can win, and statements about any team being much more likely than another one to win a series/the whole thing are not supported by history.

Buddy: Whatever you decide, PLEASE keep these chats going next year and beyond.
Keith Law: They’ll still be here, trust me.

Jeff: Is Mike Trout the best player you’ve ever seen in all your years of doing this?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mevo: If you are Theo Epstein, would you trade Biaz for luis Severino 1 for 1? Would yanks do that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade for Severino coming off a year where he had a significant shoulder issue.

Buddy: Doesn’t “utterly” mean the same thing as “completely”?
Keith Law: Totally.

Cameron: I asked on periscope what the best restaurant in Houston was and I didn’t write it down and slipped my mind. Can you remind me, please. Thanks.
Keith Law: Xochi. Get the duck and the chocolate river/rocks thing.

Jon: FWIW, I just red Tom Cotton said “no comment” on the allegation of WH trying to bury the report. The fact that a guy like him didn’t jump to “this is all a farse by the democrats to renew the mueller report” is, in my view, a little telling that this is a bigger deal.
Keith Law: That’s interesting. Also, Red Tom Cotton is a pretty good nickname.

Andy: LOL@ Tigers not having draft busts. It was only 22 years ago that 1-1 in the draft was a relief pitcher.
Keith Law: Yeah and they’ve whiffed on a lot of high picks. Scott Moore. Jacob Turner.

Robbie: Hey Keith, appreciate the chat as always. Do you see there being anyone in the braves minor league system with the potential to be a star outside of Pache?
Keith Law: Sure, several guys. Waters maybe, although I’m a little lighter on him with his low walk rate. Contreras could be. One of those pitchers has to be a star … it would be improbable that none of them turns out to be more than an average starter.

JP: Report on Jaleo….amazing (and pricey, obviously). Croquetas, gambas al ajillo, and chorizo were all out of this world, along with the spanish wine. disappointed we didn’t get the paella. highly recommend.
Keith Law: Dying to get down there to support Chef Andres.

Craig: You’ve talked about guys that you got wrong. Which scouting report are you most proud of, where you nailed a guy’s potential (or lack thereof) exactly, while most of the industry was wrong?
Keith Law: Part of why I don’t love talking about that is that so many are of the form that I said a player wasn’t good, got shit for it, and was right. It feels a bit tacky. I am pleased to see Lucas Giolito justify my long-held faith in him, or Jorge Soler finally show at least some of the potential I saw from him back in the AZL.

Diamondbacks: Purely scouting the stat line here, but Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system put up some pretty good numbers. Very little out there about him though…what’s the story? He’s 25, so maybe a little old for his level. Is he a butcher in the field or something?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really have a position, not a good swing either.

John: What position is Devers long term?
Keith Law: Third base.

Joe: Better than Bonds?
Keith Law: Bonds was already huge when I saw him, and no longer the elite defender he was in the 1990s.

Chris: Your readers enjoy these chats. But why do you?
Keith Law: Why not? It’s fun to talk to you guys (most of you guys, at least!). I get to crack jokes and answer questions that many of you have, and sometimes I learn stuff too, or get ideas for future content. It is tiring, because I have to be “on” for an hour or more, but I do enjoy them.

Ted: More likely to get more starts in the Rangers rotation next year? Brock Burke or Palumbo?
Keith Law: I feel like both guys get 20+ starts.

Tim Robinson: The President basically suggested the whistleblower and source should be killed. Perfectly normal Thursday here.
Keith Law: Yep. And, again, the GOP falls in line. Mo Brooks did. Thom Tillis did. It’s astonishing.

Adam: You should try Crujiente while youre in PHX. Best Tacos I have ever had!
Keith Law: I tried to get there in the spring but there was something … maybe weird hours? … that prevented me. Thanks.

Jeff: Any general advice for a new parent?
Keith Law: Buy “The Happiest Baby on the Block.” And try to get whatever sleep you can. My ex-wife and I eventually settled on alternating nights – I would feed our daughter one night, she would feed her the next – so every night somebody got something approximating a full night of sleep. It worked for us; experiment and figure out what works for you.

Eric: The New York Times just basically gave really specific identifying information about the whistleblower. Dean Baquet should be ashamed of himself for putting that info in the paper of record.
Keith Law: I’ll add it to the list of things Baquet should be ashamed of, behind employing Bret Stephens and Bari Weiss for their opinions.

Andy: Your long-time readers remember the ones you got crap about for saying they weren’t very good. Junior Lake is dominating the Mexican League though.
Keith Law: Yep. Not the only Cub on that secret list of mine, either.

Eric: Advice for a new parent: onesies are stretchy at the top so they can be put on/taken off from the bottom without having to go over the head. helps a lot when a newborn is sleeping.
Keith Law: Oh god, I forgot about onesies…
Keith Law: My daughter is 13, folks. Longtime readers probably remember me talking about her when she was a baby, doing chats while she napped. They grow up fast.

Eric: I don’t know a “Bret Stephens.” Only a “Bedbug Stephens.”
Keith Law: Yep, my mistake. That’s the guy.
Keith Law: Thanks for all the questions this week! I will try to do one more next week and then skip the week I’m in Arizona. I am buried in book-writing right now – past 3/4 of my word count, at least – but I’m trying to at least keep to a regular chat/Periscope schedule for the time being. Enjoy this last weekend of regular-season baseball!

ESPN+ subscribers can see my annual list of players I was wrong about, which includes Shane Bieber and Jeff McNeil.

Keith Law: The wind will carry us. Klawchat.

Dana: I’m curious what you thought of Brett Gardner as a prospect. Probably didn’t think he’d be a consistent 15-25 homer guy?
Keith Law: I think (hope) he was on one of the earliest versions of the “guys I got wrong” column. He had no power in college and his swing wasn’t geared for it at all. He really remade himself into someone who had average power and could take particular advantage of Yankee Stadium’s RF fence. That plus CF level defense in LF made him kind of a star, if not necessarily widely known as one.

Marani: So, who wins AL MVP now?
Keith Law: Trout.

Moe Mentum: Have you seen any evolution in how Gold Gloves are awarded in recent years, or is it still pretty much a joke? Do you think these awards will ever improve their perception among the Smart Baseball generation?
Keith Law: I know the process is better than it used to be but I still do not take them seriously.

TP: You have mentioned Austin as a potential MLB expansion city. While there would be a lot of interest down here, there has also been a lot of backlash to using public land for the new, privately financed MLS stadium. Politically, Austin is similar to Portland, OR, and it is unlikely that there would be political support for a publicly funded stadium within the city limits. Austin has a long history of opposing such ideas (which is one reason the Express play in Round Rock). San Antonio might be more realistic if MLB wants a third team in Texas.
Keith Law: I would think any stadium location would be chosen to take advantage of both metro areas, which are only about 80 miles apart and could make a mammoth media market – especially with just one major league sports team (the Spurs) between them. Austin has somewhat better demographics, though.

BigDaddeh: Do different teams treat the AFL different or is it just a year by year thing? The Yankees seemed to really punt on this year’s attendees
Keith Law: Some teams always send org guys; some send real prospects. It’s a philosophical thing. I would always send guys who were either real prospects or 40-man bubble guys.

Moe Mentum: Fill in the blank for yourself (past or present) : I’m likely interested in any movie that has _______ acting in (or producing or directing) it.
Keith Law: I’ve seen about 20 Hitchcock movies and maybe 15 Cary Grant movies. I’ll also watch anything Billy Wilder did.

AJ: Who plays (or should play) the middle infield positions for the Reds in 2020? VanMeter just doesn’t look like a regular at this point, nor does Peraza.
Keith Law: I’d return Senzel to 2b and try to find a better CF option.

Nate: Keith, when trying to evaluate pitchers, the difference between fWAR and bWAR is confusing. Reynaldo Lopez, for instance, has been worth 2.3 fWAR (this year and last) while only being worth 0.6 bWAR. How would you best look at these two numbers in trying to evaluate whether he should be used as a back-end starter or potentially high leverage reliever moving forward?
Keith Law: Part of that difference is fWAR’s assumption that his LOB% is going to regress to league-average levels. Given how homer-prone he is, and the fact that he wasn’t appreciably worse from the stretch this year (he was actually better!), I’m not sure I buy into that. I always look at both versions, but I think the 2.3 for this year probably overstates his future value.

Jackie: Did you know that Matt Barnes is tied for third in most career wins for the Red Sox in this century by a homegrown pitcher — tied with the immortal Felix Doubront, behind Lester and Buchholz. Why have the Red Sox been so terrible for so long at developing starting pitching? Everyday players, they’re great — Betts, Boegarts, Devers, Benintendi, etc. But they can’t draft a pitcher to save their lives. Is it an incorrect organization philosophy, bad luck, bad minor league coaching?
Keith Law: It’s not the drafting … Trey Ball was a huge miss, but since him, they’ve taken Groome (consensus top 3ish guy in the class, still a prospect), Kopech in the comp round (still a great prospect, used to acquire Sale), and Houck (role unclear but absolutely a prospect). Look out for Thad Ward too – fifth rounder from 2018. They’ve traded some guys and had some developmental misses, but I think on the whole the bigger issue is a lack of numbers. They haven’t used that many high picks on pitchers, preferring to draft bats and trade for or sign arms.

Portmantoter: Hi Keith. I’m listening to the audiobook of ‘Smart Baseball’ right now and really enjoying it. I wanted to ask if you had input into who would be the narrator — I was hoping to hear your voice when I turned it on. And couldn’t anybody tell the poor guy that it’s pronounced Laj-a-way? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: They asked me if I wanted to listen to the three candidates but I said no as I was in the middle of something – maybe writing my top 100.

BigDaddeh: I know it’s just a few months into the career, but seeing Witt Jr in the top 10 of prospect lists seems off. Are you still all in?
Keith Law: He’s not in my top 10.

Mark: What’s a realistic trade for Mookie Betts this offseason and should the BoSox consider it given their financial commitments on the books and what it would take to sign him long-term? Would 1 year of Betts be worth multiple top 100 prospects to the team getting him? Is 1 top 25 prospect enough?
Keith Law: If you’re a team on the cusp of a playoff spot, yes, it’s probably worth giving up two of your top prospects for the boost Betts would give you. I can see many teams that would love an immediate six-win gain (conservatively) in the standings.

Jerry: Astros are about to make it through a full season without issuing an intentional BB. Assuming this makes KLAW happy….
Keith Law: Extremely.

Arnold : Nice scene at Fenway the other night with Mike catching Granddaddy Yaz’s 1st pitch (a strike!), then homering and expertly playing a ball off the Green Monster like Carl used to do. Young Yaz’s 20 jacks is more pop than the Giants have seen in years. Is that repeatable or is it likely that pitchers will figure him out with a year’s worth of scouting?
Keith Law: I think this is entirely the juiced ball. He’s never been a prospect beyond maybe an emergency callup.

Mark: Has Tim Anderson and Moncada shown enough defensive skills to stay in their respective positions long-term? Do you believe changing positions can negatively impact a player’s offensive production?
Keith Law: Yes to both players, yes to the latter question but it will vary by player.

Harper – Bat speed: Is there any chatter in the scouting community about Bryce Harper’s bat speed and/or ? His exit velo numbers aren’t awful, but watching him in person it really looks like he’s cheating to pull and it leaves him really exposed to high and away fastballs. He’s had a ton of injuries at a young age, and I worry we’ll never see anything resembling his 2015 season again.
Keith Law: Nope, have neither heard nor seen any such thing.

Felix: I’ve heard rumblings in chats that Casey Mize wasn’t the same when he came back from injury. What was the issue and how much concern should there be?
Keith Law: Don’t think he came back healthy. Stuff was much less crisp. Hoping it’s nothing, but aware there’s a good chance it’s a serious injury.

JT: I’ve been curious about a component of BA: is it possible that the lower the level of competition it is, the more important it becomes?
Keith Law: In general, no. There are, however, absolutely reasons to be concerned when, say, a guy with a plus hit tool fails to hit for average AND isn’t making quality contact on top of that.

Epsthoyer: Enjoy your chats, Klaw. My dilemma…JHey is not opting out, so do I trade Schwarbs and resign Castellanos or allow myself to believe that 2nd half Kyle is a sign of better things to come and fix the lineup through free agency (hello Rendon)?
Keith Law: Don’t you have to make a run at Rendon? Every contender that can sign him should be trying to do so. Best FA bat on the market, bar none.

Ian: Should Justin Trudeau resign and/or end is campaign?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rich: Did you see Chris Paddock having the year he did? Can he front a playoff caliber team’s rotation or do you think he’s more a #2 type in a playoff rotation?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m all in on him, as I mentioned in today’s column.

Champdo: Can Isaac Paredes be an above average regular?
Keith Law: Can, yes. Will, ehhh … needs a position, for one thing, and there is no projection left there whatsoever.

Brian: What do you think the Padres should do at 2B next year? Do they give Urias the first crack at the job?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brian: Is Ronny Henriquez going to be a big riser in the prospect rankings this winter? Numbers are impressive for a 19 year old in A Ball.
Keith Law: Age relative to league is a much less important indicator for pitchers – and his numbers are a mixed bag. Not saying he’s bad, just that your premise needs work.

Ben: What kind of MLB player does Austin Martin project to be? More Swanson or Bregman?
Keith Law: He’s not like either of those guys but I think he has star upside.

Ben: Who puts up better MLB OPS’s: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: I don’t like or use OPS. It’s a math error. Vaughn is the better pure hitter. Torkelson will hit for more power.

G: I understand this Vazquez situation was out of the Pirates organizational control, but the entire team is in disarray, fights in the clubhouse, and their development of pitchers has been terrible under the current administration (Morton, Cole, Glasnow all improved dramatically after leaving.) Should everyone from the President down be fired at this point?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler pointed out on Twitter yesterday that ownership was totally absent when the Vazquez news broke, and to me that’s a real symptom of the bigger problem there. Yeah, Hurdle’s probably toast, but he was put in an impossible situation.

Brian: What are you looking for next season to buy Jhoan Duran as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s been missing more bats with his fastball which I’d say is a very good sign.

Scott Upham: Like the Eugenio Suarez trade debacle, will Red Sox fans eventually regret the huge package Dombrowski sent to the White Sox for Sale (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz)?
Keith Law: It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?

Mike: I think Brandon Woodruff is a prime guy to become a #2 next year, what are your thoughts on him, health permitting?
Keith Law: Yes, he got an honorable mention on my breakouts column in March, and kind of made me look bad for not talking him up more until he got hurt!

Matt: Why isn’t my [player from my favorite team] on your list of players you were wrong about. I know you get dumb questions like this about specific players, but what sorts of things make you think a player is different than what you expected as opposed to over-performing and due to regress?
Keith Law: Two things: Some sustained level of performance at a new level – so, you know, half a season ain’t it, chief – and some tangible explanation for why the player is different. That could be a chance in mechanics or stuff, or something I missed when evaluating him.

Dallas: Dumb question: is it more likely someone trying to throw high strikes misses down (thus middle of the plate) or someone trying to keep the ball down misses up (middle of the plate)?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. My gut says neither, but that’s pure guessing.

Yan: How do you assess Corbin Martin assuming he fully comes back from TJ? Still a #2-3 type arm?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: When evaluating AJ Preller’s tenure as GM of the Padres, are the Myers and Hosmer contracts fireable offenses?
Keith Law: No, and besides, you don’t know if the Hosmer deal was Preller – it is unlike every other deal he’s done – or ownership.

section 34: Can you say nice things about the Orioles?
Keith Law: Their minor league pitching looks improved.

Carl: Miguel Yajure – What kind of upside does he have? How would you rank him against Gil, Roansy Contreras, and Luis Medina?
Keith Law: More chance to start than Gil. Medina is still kind of a wild card – seemed like he figured out some consistency late this season, always had the athleticism and enough of a repeatable delivery to get to this, but you have to see him do it for more than a third of a year.

Jack: Who should the A’s start in the Wildcard game? Fiers? Manaea? Hendriks (lol)?
Keith Law: Isn’t Fiers hurt?

Scott Upham: Is Tanner Houck a legit SP? Where does he slot in the Sox rotation eventually? Looks like a back end starter/middle reliever to me.
Keith Law: I think more likely reliever but am not at 100%.

Jimmy Kimmel: When looking at Pacific Coast League offensive statistics, are wRC+ and wOBA the only stats worth note?
Keith Law: No. I actually never look at wRC+ or wOBA for minor leaguers. It can be wildly misleading.

Reader: Parker Mushinski had a nice little season in Fayetteville albeit older for the level. Does he have MLB potential?
Keith Law: Saw him last week. He does not.

Marc: Not so much a question, but looking back at your older annual players you missed on pieces a lot of those guys actually didn’t turn out to be very good. Most of them were 1-2 good year(s) and done guys. Maybe you need to do a players I thought I missed on, but actually I was kind of right about column.
Keith Law: I’ve noticed a few of those but talking about it feels crass. No takebacks, right?

Jordan: What do the Astros do with Kyle Tucker next season? He has absolutely nothing left to prove in Triple-A, but the outfield is still crowded with Springer, Reddick and Brantley. Do they try and move on from Gurriel and stick Tucker at 1B?
Keith Law: I think he’s trade bait.

Dallas: Cavan Biggio hit for the cycle yet he wasn’t listed in your “I’m wrong” column? I’m confused.
Keith Law: That was funny.
Keith Law: I did point out to some crank on Twitter that other recent cycles came from Brandon Barnes (0.8 career WAR) and Jake Bauers (-0.6).

Reggie: Does Emerson Hancock have a Mize level ceiling if he puts together another big year?
Keith Law: I don’t quite think so.

Colin: Not really a question but just want to say that I’m happy Kolten Wong finally broke out after getting away from Matheny and want to give you credit for always being high on him even as Matheny dicked him around.
Keith Law: To be fair, I was low on him at first, then realized he was better than I thought, and got on Matheny for dicking around with him.

Dan: Yordan Alvarez tore up the MLB like the fucking dance floor this year, to the tune of a .318/.419/.671 line in 339 PAs with a 50 HR full season pace. I know you weren’t high on him as a prospect but has this year changed your expectations for his longterm potential, provided he can play at DH?
Keith Law: I never said anything remotely negative about his bat. It’s all about his lack of a position and the poor long-term outlook for a player with his body and poor athleticism. He can certainly hit and has power, although the 50 HR pace isn’t quite so special as it was a few years ago.

Jax: Adrian Houser’s starts have been somewhat uneven this year. He still project as a starter for you? He was tremendous out of the bullpen. Maybe he’s better suited there?
Keith Law: Still has starter stuff/build.

Pat D: Considering all of the stonewalling by this White House (evidently continuing as we speak), how am I supposed to think that this won’t be the norm going forward, regardless of what party occupies the WH and Congress?
Keith Law: I share your concern that this – not just the stonewalling, but the persistent lying and gaslighting – is the new normal.

Reader: The Astros sent Cody Deason to the AFL, did you get to see him in the Carolina league? Anything there?
Keith Law: Saw him too, and no, not really.

Curious George : I read an article about growth plate testing done on Ohtani as an amateur to project his growth expectancy at maturity. Is this common practice by organized baseball as part of the amateur scouting process?
Keith Law: I have never heard of this before and it kind of weirds me out, to be honest. I don’t want DNA testing either.

David: Keith, who do you think the Red Sox will target as their GM? And is there any chance Raquel Ferreira stays in charge?
Keith Law: Someone from outside the org with some name value. I have not heard anything to make me think Ferreira will or should stay in charge.

Craig: Orlando Arcia has been a replacement-level shortstop for the last two years and has been discussed as a possible non-tender candidate for this off-season. His talent and potential are obvious, but so is his lack of production. Should the Brewers keep him around in the hopes that he will realize that potential (like Carlos Gomez did) or stop throwing good playing time after bad?
Keith Law: If they’re trying to contend in 2020, they should at least explore other options. He’ll be 25 next year, young enough to still improve, but their ability to wait on that – and risk another cipher year at the plate – depends on their overall plan for the year.

David: Do you drink dairy milk?
Keith Law: Yes. Lactose-free, of course.

Ricof: Buying or selling Griffin Canning moving foward?
Keith Law: Buying if healthy but higher than average injury risk.

Mike: Can the pirates just cut vasquez right now?
Keith Law: No, they can not.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Who ends up being a more successful starter on their career – Puk or Luzardo?
Keith Law: I lean Puk.

Jake: Thanks for doing the “Players I was wrong about” articles. I find them fascinating because you not only admit you were wrong, but examine why you missed on a guy, what he’s changed or what you might have missed. The Castillo bit was the most interesting because you discussed how being wrong about him has had an impact on how you rate Paddack. I get to the end of this and realize I don’t really have a question, but I did want to let you know I appreciate what you’re doing and sharing the process with us.
Keith Law: It’s why I do them. Glad you enjoy those columns.

Mark: I like your music write-ups and use them to find new artists, songs, etc. Have you watched any of the Ken Burns Country Music episodes? Outside of my fondness for Johnny Cash, I wouldn’t call myself a country fan, but Ken Burns has done a fantastic job IMO.
Keith Law: Really not a fan of country music.

Bradf: You wrote earlier in the year that Austin Beck didn’t look good and he backed it up with a subpar year. Are you optimistic that he still possesses the tools to improve and eventually make it as a solid contributor in the majors? Thanks Keith.
Keith Law: I would say I’m pessimistic.

Andy: As I Lay Dying has a new album coming out. Everyone should entirely avoid this right? I mean dude served his time, but is still a giant POS.
Keith Law: Never liked their music anyway, but yeah, I could not fucking believe he was out of jail and recording again.

addoeh: From your article today on players you’ve missed on, it looks like Luis Castillo’s success has made you re-evaluate pitchers with a similar profile like Paddock. Have any other players had an impact on how you evaluate similar players going forward?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Every miss is a learning opportunity.

Adam: Does Soroka have better velo now than when you were not as high on him? (the delivery was your main contention i believe)
Keith Law: No, don’t think that’s changed.

Drew: Will the Cardinals sending Dylan Carlson home to “add muscle” instead of playing in the AFL benefit him?
Keith Law: I would have loved to have seen him play more, but he must also be exhausted from the long season. He’s played a lot, and very well, against tough competition.

JR: Enjoyed the guys you were wrong about column. Of the players you mentioned, who do you see as most likely to sustain their current production, and who do you see regressing?
Keith Law: I led with Bieber because I think he’s the most ‘real’ of the group. McNeil has already shown some regression, so while I don’t predict a big flop I think we may have seen his peak.

Jerry skurnik: While we in NYC focus on Edwin Diaz’ disastrous record, “proven closers” around MLB have been pretty terrible all season. Do you have any thoughts on why? Juiced ball?
Keith Law: The changed baseball has absolutely affected some pitchers more than others – for example, I think it’s played havoc with Diaz’s slider.

addoeh: Will Joey Bagodonuts or Tommy Hackenstein make your new book?
Keith Law: Joey Bagodonuts is in the new book. I can confirm this.

A big dumb idiot: What are the mechanics of a guy like Jordan Groshans being a decenly regarded mid first rounder to a consensus top 100 guy despite missing the whole season? It it similar to amateur scouting where a few looks displayed new and real skills?
Keith Law: For me, it was hearing a few pro scouts who caught him early say they bought his approach and power.

JJ: Speaking of Trout and the MVP, it seems like every years there’s an argument of Trout’s individual greatness vs. the non-competitiveness of the Angels. This seems, in large part, to be fueled by the BBWAA’s (intentional?) vagueness in defining the MVP. If you were asked to boil the award description down to one sentence, what would you say?
Keith Law: Which player did the most on the field to increase his team’s win total in that season? He’s the MVP.

Mike: Is the reason Felipe Vasquez wasn’t traded before the trade deadline due to the recent news? Did teams know?
Keith Law: Nobody knew. That’s kind of gross.

Steve: “It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?” Unless you’re one of the vast majority of MLB owners and GMs who seem to value cost control and “glide slopes” above all else.
Keith Law: Yeah, winning the efficiency trophy isn’t really the ideal goal. I’m a prospect guy, and I still say trade prospects if it gives you a chance to win.

WhiteSoxAndy: Has the juiced ball reduced the value of outfield defense? Since the ball is flying out of the park anyway, is it better to just have power bats out there and not be concerned with average at best defense?
Keith Law: No, that doesn’t quite make sense … some balls that would have fallen in just behind the infield become playable for outfielders, and balls are coming at all fielders faster than ever.

Josh Nelson: Who doesn’t make the playoffs: Nationals, Cubs, or Brewers?
Keith Law: I think the safe guess is the Nats make it and the other two are in a dogfight that goes to game 162 (or 163!).
Keith Law: Yikes, Domingo German is on administrative leave for a possible domestic violence policy violation.

Kevin: Is Matthew liberatore a part of Tampa’s rotation in mid 2020?
Keith Law: Too soon.

Scott: I was happy to see Jeter Downs get honorable mention in your Prospect of the Year column.
Do you think his bat profiles well enough to carry him regardless of a possible position switch to CF?
Keith Law: Yes, it does, but why not 2b?

Jacob deGrom: Did anyone think I would becomne the best of the Mets starters? I was never ranked a shigh as Harvey, Wheeler, Matz or Noah
Keith Law: I think I can say this safely now. I know one person who believed in deGrom before anyone else in the industry: Paul Depodesta.

Brian: How come the Tigers seemingly always have solid pitching prospests but can never draft a postional player. Avila seems to be doing the same thing Dombrowski did. Hill was the last ” guy”
Keith Law: I think they still overdraft ‘name’ guys and focus more on traditional tools than most other clubs. They’ll nearly always be in a position where they think a player slipped to them, but in fact the rest of the industry has decided based on additional information that the player isn’t as good as previously thought.
Keith Law: Hill is a bit of an exception, though … his defense was there, he just hasn’t hit consistently or developed enough of an eye at the plate to get to it.

Steve: If Miguel Yajure makes it in MLB, I hope his nickname ends up “Force Yajure”.
Keith Law: That is excellent.

Ian: Cycles aside, Cavan Biggio’s combination of baserunning, defensive versatility, and power/patience at the plate seems at least interesting. What are the red flags? Where do you see him regressing?
Keith Law: He’s not good at any position, and what power? I checked yesterday and he ranked around 180th in HR this year – with 4 of his 14 coming off the Orioles, the worst pitching staff in baseball (en route to 300 HR allowed this year). The sudden optimism seems to be mostly because he’s had an outlier September.

Portmantotebag: Is Victor Reyes (.298/.329.421 with speed) growing into a regular, even if a second-division regular, instead of a 4th OF, or is it all still SSS?
Keith Law: Chance for a regular. Definite fourth OF.

Mikhail Bulgakov: I would love a return to the old baseball, but what incentive does Manfred have to make sure that happens?
Keith Law: The union could go a long way to making it happen. Pitchers aren’t happy.

JR: you’ve been doing these chats for about 15 years now, right? (Thank you BTW). How have the questions changed over the years, if at all? Do you think you get better questions now or the same? Do you get accused of bias as often? just as many dumbasses?
Keith Law: Over 13 years. First one was July 2006. Question quality improved when I had to move them here from ESPN.com. Still plenty of trolls and dumbasses, but I think the regulars among you help drown them out.

Arnold: If Yaz’s 20 HRs are entirely the product of the juiced ball, what does that say about the rest of the Giants’ team, where only one player, Pillar, has more HRs (21) in 200+ more ABs?
Keith Law: It says exactly what you think it says, and I’m sorry.

Josh: There seems to be some between the lines discussion about Will Smith’s catching. Talk about Ryu not as good with him, etc. Just noise or a little signal there? Not sure how much you have watched him since he’s been in the bigs
Keith Law: That sounds like bullshit to me. Nothing but raves for Smith’s catching all the way back to Louisville where he caught McKay.

Andy: Keith–your thoughts on DD being fire for doing what was seemingly his exact effin’ mandate?
Keith Law: That’s not really accurate.

Tim: You’ve written that Trevor Bauer’s 2018 season now looks like an outlier. Going into this year, were you thinking it was probably a fluke year?
Keith Law: I will be honest: I don’t think I gave it enough thought either way.

Scott: If the season ended today, who is Keith Law’s NL MVP?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Ridley: On Twitter, Geraldo Rivera asked “At what point should a guy’s past no longer be counted against him?” Is it just me, or was that more of an admission of guilt than a question?

(p.s. The issue was as much with Kavanaugh lying about his past as with the contents of said past.)
Keith Law: Yikes. Also, the lying is the problem here. He lied under oath to Congress. That should be a disqualifying condition for any judicial candidate.

Alex: Whenever my brother-in-law starts getting on my nerves, I will invariably tell him, “At their peaks, Nomar was better than Jeter, and you know it.” It drives him nuts when I say this, but is it accurate?
Keith Law: Depends on how you say it. “Nomah was bettah than Jeetah” would be more powerful than the way you wrote it.

Todd: Can Jonathan Loaisiga be a real back end of the pen option?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kyle: Pete Alonso would be the most negatively affected player if the Happy Fun Ball goes away next year, right?
Keith Law: He’d still be an above-average regular, but guys like him and Suarez wouldn’t be 50 HR hitters.

Heather: As a Red Sox fan, in the last few years I’ve enjoyed watching Devers, Xander, and Mookie get better from year to year. Andrew Benintendi, however, doesn’t seem to be getting any better. It’s like he came into the league as a slightly above average player, and has never changed. Does he have another level, or is this it?
Keith Law: If anything he’s gone backwards this year. It’s surprising as he’s had a solid year vs LHP, which seemed like his big weakness, but it turns out he’s just not hit for anything close to the power projected for him (including myself in that, I would have thought the Happy Fun Ball would mean 30 HR).
Keith Law: I want to believe there’s another level but have no specific reason to argue that.

Bruce: Corey Seager came back this year after a couple of major injuries. What are your thoughts on his season and do you expect him to put up better numbers offensively next year after having an offseason where he does not have rehab? Do you expect Seager to move off SS for Lux in the near future?
Keith Law: The Dodgers seem disinclined to move Seager, and 3b is occupied at the moment. Not sure where else he would go.

Lee: Why is everyone talking like the Red Sox won’t re-sign Betts? Seems to me that with the Price and Sale contracts, they are pretty well committed to going over the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. Why would they all of a sudden pull back when one of the best players of his generation is up for free agency?
Keith Law: People are assuming that the Dombrowski firing indicates, at least on some level, an unwillingness to continue to blow past the LT threshold.

Nick: What is Zac Gallen going forward? Seems like a nice get by the ‘Backs.
Keith Law: Nice get for them indeed. Starter, not a high ceiling one.

Tony: Do you avoid use of the word “clutch” altogether? I get the samples are too small to have statistical significance, but is it colloquially fair to just say a walk-off HR is a clutch hit?
Keith Law: There are clutch hits, but not clutch hitters.

Chris: It turns out that I did indeed have that third pull of intelligentsia Black Cat the other day. So thanks for the confirmation in your video chat. Much appreciated.
Keith Law: Always a good choice. If my stomach could tolerate it I’d drink coffee all day.

Dan: Kind of a vague question, but when you’re cooking – how crazy are you about cleanliness? I see some of the Alton Brown stuff and, sorry, but I just don’t have the wherewithal to have separate poultry-only cutting boards or wear gloves whenever I touch a piece of meat.
Keith Law: I am not at that level either. I do have cutting boards I only use for raw meats, and a wooden cutting board I use for everything else. I stopped wearing gloves to handle raw meat in most cases because it seemed wasteful.

Luis: Not really a question but just a thank you for all the content (especially on board games). We just started out collection of board games and have established board game Thursdays as date night with my wife. Enjoying it very much and all thanks to your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great to hear! Much more to come this fall on that front.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Hey Klaw, any reports on how Moniak looks in AFL? Do you still see him as a 4th OF/AAAA guy?
Keith Law: Saw him three weeks ago. Still the same.

Chris: Mariano has been my favorite player since 1995, sad I had to cancel him after the gag-inducing sight/sound of him walking into Roosevelt Room w Cheeto to Enter Sandman.
Keith Law: I mean, you can still love what he did on the field, right?

Jon: Paul Depodesta, the fat guy in Moneyball?
Keith Law: No, that was Peter Brand.

Mike: When the Tigers traded Suarez was he considered a “prospect”?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think they evaluated him correctly internally.

Todd: Been on anti anxiety meds for 3 years. Starting to get off them now. Any advice?
Keith Law: Do it slowly. Some new research showing that people tapering too quickly have very negative experiences.

Chris: It blows my mind how many so-professed “cooks” that I know acknowledge never using a thermometer like a Thermapen when cooking (particularly grilling meat or fish). Am I making too much of this?
Keith Law: Every serious home cook should have a thermometer and a scale. The thermometer I use most cost about $9. You can get a good digital scale under $20. They’re essential.

Frank: Thoughts on Bochy getting his 2000th win last night? Is there any doubt he is bound for Cooperstown?
Keith Law: He’s definitely getting into the Hall.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Love your chats Klaw, If you had to pick between tatis and Lindor for the rest of there careers who is your choice? Personally i’d take Lindor especially w the consideration of home ball park.
Keith Law: Love both. Tatis has more overall upside.

Jeff: There have been talks of the Diamondbacks relocating to Las Vegas or Henderson, Nevada. Do you think MLB will ever put a franchise in the Las Vegas area?
Keith Law: No. I answered this somewhere recently – maybe on Periscope? – but Vegas’ demographics are awful and they will now have two major league franchises there already.

Greg: Is Klentak’s most fireable offense not just failing to sign Keuchel, but showing almost no interest in doing so? Given the dearth of starting pitching, I still don’t understand how they weren’t seriously looking at him in June.
Keith Law: At the time, it seemed like their bigger need was the bullpen, not the rotation. Should they have signed Kimbrel? You should be glad they didn’t. So no, I don’t think Klentak has committed any fireable offenses.

JT: As a Canadian, I can’t say I’m not miffed at Trudeau’s unfortunate brown face, but his principal opponent is a guy who refuses to apologize for being anti LGBTQ today. Trudeau embraced Syrian refugees; his old opponent promised to stop accepting them.

The left eats itself; the right carries on, gaslighting and awful.
Keith Law: That’s a separate issue; there’s no way Canada should vote Conservative given how much that party has embraced the white nationalist and anti-LGBTQ movements.

Dan: Iced coffee? Cold brew? Or iced americano?
Keith Law: None.

Luis: My 7-year-old daughter loves Catan Jr. Im just worried that she is getting too good at the game (hahaha). Is there another boardgame you would recommend to play with a 7 & 5 year olds? My 5 wont commit to Catan Jr. for the whole game but she will at least play 50-60% of the game before she needs to turn her attention to another thing.
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride is great for those ages.

Andres: How in the world does Mike Minor have a higher WAR than Verlander? Minor has allowed more hits, runs, higher ERA, higher WHIP, less SO, more walks, less innings pitched … How is it possible? Defense alone cannot be it, can it??
Keith Law: I posted a link to a great Twitter thread on this from James Smyth.

Robes-4: Who is the next six gm? Keith law?
Keith Law: Hah, thank you, but that’s not happening.

JT: Vote splitting on the left in Canada (3 parties) leads to 37% majorities for the right.

Similar effect to the Stein/Sanders holdouts in ’16.
Keith Law: Yeah. Please don’t do that. The last thing we need is Trump Lite up there.

Bill: Not to be grim, but what musician’s death would impact you in the way that Ric Ocasek’s or Eddie Money’s has for many?
Keith Law: Prince’s did. Cobain in his era, especially since I was 20 and music was more integral to my life at the time. I still love music, of course, but it’s less central now.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – back to book writing and a haircut appointment today. I plan to send out another issue of my email newsletter tomorrow, and this edition will talk about my new book, due out in April of 2020. Thank you all as always for reading and for your questions!

ESPN+ subscribers can read my Prospect of the Year column for 2019.

Keith Law: A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.

Lyle: How soon could the M’s run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law: Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn’t performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.

addoeh: Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects? They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there’s still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law: I think they’ve drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.

Sam: When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law: I mentioned in this week’s newsletter that I will have information on it soon.

Moe Mentum: I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law: Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.

Jim: North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law: Totally unsurprising.

Richard: Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he’ll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on this year’s performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I’d buy in.

Richard: Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because I don’t think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.

JR: Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry – LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law: Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won’t disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.

Dave: Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law: No. He wouldn’t be up if they hadn’t had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he’s ready to be an average regular.

Chris: Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law: What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They’ve done it before.

Craig: Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law: Disagree that he’s “slept on.” High draft pick, well known within the industry. He’s very good.

Jerod: Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law: I’m buying. He was very much in that “guy you thought would hit but were wrong about” category for me till this year.

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of times you get people trying to play “gotcha” on you with players you’re not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see more than a full year for that. I don’t always have that luxury of time, but we’ve seen so many players have fluke years that it’s too easy to say “welp, I was wrong,” only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.

JR: Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law: Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.

Jeff: Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law: If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.

Craig: You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law: I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a “full bore metal” one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.

Bryan (Montclair): Do you think that J.D. Davis’ bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law: I’m inclined to the latter.

Eric: North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law: That works, especially with the whole “several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature” comparison.

David: Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it’s a disaster there.
Keith Law: It’s gotten a lot weaker, but I don’t think it’s a disaster, and some of this stuff (Groome blowing out, Flores passing away) isn’t anyone’s fault.
Keith Law: I think that was a factor. I can’t believe that would be THE factor.

Chris: Do you like Tool? Listen to the new album?
Keith Law: Not a fan, sorry.

Jerod: Last year the Brewers got within one game of the WS with an average run differential. This year they are negative and near the second wild card. Is this just noise or are they doing something different than other teams?
Keith Law: Some luck but also generally great bullpens.

Ben: With Yelich out, who’s your favorite for MVP – or is it still him?
Keith Law: It was never him, FTR. Bellinger has had the edge over him all year.

Luke: This is probably a dumb question, but why does the minor league season end with a month left of major league games?
Keith Law: Aside from this is how we’ve always done it? I think so teams could recall players for September.

Andrew: Thoughts on Blue Jays C prospect Alejandro Kirk? Posted a 153 wRC+ in high A this year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure how long he catches, given his body, but he can hit.

Zac: Do the Tigers have a hitting prospect that you are excited to watch or is it only pitching?
Keith Law: Riley Greene for sure. Paredes can hit, but I’m not sure where he plays and he has no projection at all. Hill can really run and defend but the bat has never progressed.

TK: I feel things like “clubhouse culture” are a bit overstated, but the Pirates must have serious problems in theirs. Three separate incidents (including a fight that has now caused a pitcher to miss the rest of the season) with their bullpen? Something has got to change there, no?
Keith Law: At some point, the manager has to take the fall, if only for failing to prevent such incidents.

Andres: 5 more good-to-great seasons, is Jacob deGrom a future HOFer? Despite the low counting stats.
Keith Law: No, that’s not close to enough. The bar is really high for modern starters and what you’re talking about probably leaves him short of 60 WAR>

Cole: It’s probably too early for this but who do you see as the major players for Gerrit Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Any contender should be interested, but I assume the Yankees and Angels will both be bidders and could blow anyone else out of the water. They both have the resources and the critical need for him.

Jeb: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz? Could he be a top 20-25 prospect by mid-season next year?
Keith Law: Way too optimistic.

Dan: How does Mickey Callaway still have a job? Dude constantly seems overwhelmed.
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the manager most likely to be fired by October, followed by Hurdle and perhaps Kapler. (That’s not my opinion on who should be fired.)

Jordan: I know it’s only 42 games in rookie ball, but it feels like Francisco Alvarez really has a chance to be something for the Mets. A 17-year-old catcher with that kind of pop in his bat is fun to see. Think he should start next year in Columbia?
Keith Law: I would probably start him in extended … after seeing the Phillies push Luis Garcia from the GCL to low-A, only to have him flop, I’m a little loath to suggest other 18-year-olds make that leap. Franco was an obvious exception, but I don’t know if Alvarez is ready – and 35 games in the Appy, while better than the GCL, don’t tell us a ton.

Ian: Would you agree that you enjoy being wrong about players? I always laugh when people get mad at you like you’re some kind of prospect magician.
Keith Law: Yes, if I were always right, this job would be boring. I get frustrated or even upset when I’m wrong for specific reasons – e.g., I didn’t listen to the opinion of someone I trusted, I didn’t see a player (at all, or just enough) and thus missed key information. But you can’t do this job unless you embrace being wrong.

Aaron: How many states would you refuse to live in based on politics?
Keith Law: Woof, probably 15-20 right now.

Guest: Matt Olson has been among 1b leaders since 2016 in drs/uzr/uzr150. When he was a prospect even the most optimistic outlets projected him as an average defensive 1b. Where do you think the disconnect between drs/uzr and the scouting community comes from?
Keith Law: I don’t think UZR/DRS do a very good job measuring 1b defense.

danny: I think you mentioned recently having The Nightingale on your list of movies to see. It’s fairly long, quite grim, with multiple rapes and killings along the way. I wouldn’t say it’s a bad movie overall, but really grim.
Keith Law: Yeah, a few readers have suggested it, but given how many other films I’d like to see + the fact that it’s not really new (it came out in 2018 in Australia, I believe), it’s lower priority.

Sean: Is Miguel Vargas a top 100 guy for you next year?
Keith Law: Possibly.

Mike: As a fellow liberal, how do we reconcile support for affirmative action and unions with the fact that Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz have jobs?
Keith Law: I don’t see the disconnect. You’re conflating a macro issue with individual examples.

Pat D: I know he was an older rookie and not really that good a player, but what do you make of Daniel Palka’s season? Can he replace Kevin Maas in the baseball lexicon?
Keith Law: I think he can be a solid bench player.

Sean: Who has a higher ceiling between Matthew Allan and Manoah?
Keith Law: Allan. But much further from his ceiling than Manoah is.

Stu (UK): Cheers, Keith! My mates and I are big into baseball and have adopted the White Sox (don’t ask) – Will Luis Robert be great, or merely very good?
Keith Law: Either one of those outcomes is possible. It will depend on how he handles ML pitchers who have better stuff and can locate it more – I’ve spoken a few times about his issues with velocity inside.

Mike: Do you attend many music concerts (live)? Or do the ridiculously high prices of most concerts turn you off?
Keith Law: Saw Phish twice in June, tickets for another show in October, couple of others I might hit this fall depending on my own schedule. I can’t imagine going to a big stadium show but seeing a show in one of the many clubs around Philly isn’t very expensive.

Darin: Which would you rather see in person?

Immaculate inning

Unassisted triple play
Keith Law: I don’t even notice the whole “immaculate inning” thing.

Derek: Miguel Yajure another pop up Yankees prospect with starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes.

Johnny: It sounds like the Jays are not going to do much this off-season since they’ve repeatedly said they’ll spend when the team starts winning. What do you think they should do this off-season, and how far away are they, really?
Keith Law: There’s a small issue with that in that they may not start winning (enough) until they spend more money.

Jason: What’re your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Can he be a reliable starter or 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Someone else asked how I ranked the Yanks’ three reclamation projects this year by confidence they’ll sustain their gains and I feel like Tauchman is third of the three, with Voit first and Urshuela second.

Zach: Mitch Garver has 30hrs in <300 PA. That’s Just Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Nice player, but come on. The Happy Fun Ball has screwed up everyone’s stat lines.

Steve: long term outlook on Austin Riley? He got hurt, but slumped badly both before and after. Should the braves attempt to resign Donaldson?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy Riley ever being a regular. Bat speed has always been questionable and we saw in the majors how that led to unworkable BB and K rates.

Marc: Julio Pablo Martinez looked like he started to turn things around the second half of the season. Any chance this turnaround is for real and he turns into the player the Rangers hoped?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he has the tools to be more than an extra OF. He’s really small. ++ run, maybe there’s a leadoff type (OBP and speed) if he’s strong enough to get to it.

mike sixel: Would you call up Kiriloff at this point? thanks<
Keith Law: Probably not.

Alex: Who should I be listening to if I liked Botanist’s Shape of He to Come? Also — over the next 10 years, what’s the over/under on additional Soroka All-Star appearances? Two?
Keith Law: I’m not sure who to compare to the Botanist … I’m not particularly a fan of black metal in general or that sort of largely non-melodic extreme metal in particular. Insomnium and Alcest both had new recent tracks I liked that had some death-metal vocals but also far more interesting music. If you put the O/U at 2.5 I’d probably take the under.

Pat D: Considering all the time he dedicates to it, would you consider yourself a bona fide celebrity if Trump started picking a fight with you on Twitter?
Keith Law: Not sure if that would be worth the aggravation.

Santos: Overall Kingery looks really good this year. Good defense, versatility, speed, decent power, etc. But his OBP is low. What’s your outlook on his on base skills going forward?
Keith Law: He’s never been a high OBP guy but I think he can hit for average and bring his K rate down over time. I still think he’s a ++ defender at second. Maybe after this year they turn the position over to him.

Sean: What is Ketel Marte’s “real” talent level at this point? Can he be an annual 5+ WAR player for the next few years? If this year is a mirage, what will change?
Keith Law: I think he’s a legitimately good hitter, although the .342 BABIP and the HR rate both feel like functions of the Happy Fun Ball … but if you told me he averaged 4 WAR over the next five years, with maybe 20 HR/year and a .320 BABIP, I’d buy it.

Jerry: Do either of Urquidy or Tucker have a chance to make the ALDS roster? How much of an impact can Toro make or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Toro’s the least valuable of the three for the playoffs, I think. I’d try to get the other two on the roster.

BigDaddeh: Do you think McCleod has a good job scouting for the Cubs or is this a case of letting a guy do something different?
Keith Law: I assume the latter. Maybe getting him off the road so much. The travel of amateur scouting in particular really wears guys out. I couldn’t do it.

Pat D: Building off the refusal to live in a certain state question, would population size be a factor? Like is North Dakota more preferable to North Carolina because there’s less people to deal with?
Keith Law: North Carolina has both Raleigh and Durham, sizable urban centers with progressive populations, diversity, and the kinds of services I want in my community. I’d take that over an entirely rural red state like ND.

Bruce: Will Smith is off to a great start as a hitter – is his power for real? How does he rate defensively?
Keith Law: Power was there last year too and I wrote on my offseason top 100 that it was legit.

Rob: i know you like Elizabeth Warren. Any other D candidates that you hold in high regard?
Keith Law: Of the likeliest candidates, it’s her or Harris for me. Maybe Booker. I’m way out on Biden or Bernie.

Chewy Rich: Are you high on Jose Devers?
Keith Law: Not really.

Matt M: Best chance to become a 1 or 2 in a big league rotation: Spencer Howard or Luis Patino?
Keith Law: Patino has #1 upside; Howard doesn’t. Howard could pitch in a MLB rotation next year; I don’t think Patino could.

Jesse: Does Rendon make sense for the White Sox or should they be focusing more on wheeler or Hamels ?
Keith Law: Pitching.

Yan: Thoughts on Phillies pitcher Francisco Morales? Do you think he can be developed into a front of the rotation arm to pair with Nola/Howard?
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Matt M: When do you see Oneill Cruz debuting with the Pirates, 2020? Is he the SS of the future?
Keith Law: There is a 0% chance he’s a MLB shortstop for me.

Boris: Is the hate against the new ball old man “get off my lawn” nonsense because baseball is different than when i was a kid or are there legit reasons to be mad about it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “get off my lawn” nonsense when homers are up 22% from one year to the next. That’s a vastly different game.

Matt the Brewer Fan: Does Trent Grisham have enough arm to be a right fielder, so Yelich can move back to left next year? Is Grisham a .350 OBP guy, long term? Love your stuff …
Keith Law: I’d try Grisham in RF – yes on the OBP, I am really not certain about his arm.

Todd Boss: So, if Rendon walks and Strasburg opts out, the Nats are in serious trouble no? Either that or they commit $60M/annually for both guys on the wrong side of 30. WWKLD?
Keith Law: I think they could survive Strasburg leaving but without Rendon they don’t have a viable second option.

Pat D: Ever watch The Dark Crystal or have any interest in the Netflix show? Gotta admire that they kept it “low tech” and it looks phenomenal.
Keith Law: Loved the movie as a kid. Will watch the show this offseason.

Mike: Which prospect do you think the Reds will regret giving up most? Don’t know what to make of Trammell right now, but Gray seems special.
Keith Law: And Downs. It’s not really been a banner year for them, trading three of their top ten (maybe top five?) prospects, plus losing Greene to TJ.

Scott: If James Kapriellian stays healthy (big IF), is it reasonable to expect him to push for a rotation spot in Oakland next spring? It sounds like his velocity is almost all the way back finally.
Keith Law: I just don’t know if you can count on him to handle a starter’s workload in 2020, if ever. Loved him prior to the injuries but he has 97 professional innings over 4 full seasons plus one summer since he was drafted.

Dr. Bob: Riffing off of you Blue Jays take, both the Astros and Cubs–the two most successful tanking operations–stopped spending money and concentrated on acquiring young talent. Then when the talent was ready, they opened the pocketbooks for FAs. Right? The problem for other tanking teams (hello, Detroit) is that they don’t seem to be very good at building the farm system and getting the young talent.
Keith Law: Right, that works better if you draft in the top 5 a few times, nail many of those picks, and are aggressive at spending a bit before it seems like you’ll need to.

Joe: While it seems like the Orioles’ pitching prospects took a collective step forward this year, is it fair to say that the hitters took a step back? Feels like none of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, McKenna improved.
Keith Law: I would agree with all four of those assessments. Adam Hall took a step forward.

Yinka Double Dare: Every time I see Mitch Garver’s name I think of “Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute” from SNL – is it just me?
Keith Law: Well, not any more.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Should I be a believer in Amed Rosario for the long term? Over Giminez?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Jason: You are the new Red Sox GM. What are you doing with Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Throwing large piles of money at him.

Tom C: Was listening to a podcast the other day and the usual “how can Trout be MVP, the Angels could be way under .500 even without him, it’s only cause of WAR, but wow the Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without LeMahieu.” Do people not realize that by their own logic there that NYY would still be in first place without LeMahieu?
Keith Law: No, they don’t, because they are not using logic.

Nicole: Will Gore pitch for the Padres next year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably midyear/later but yes.

Peter Hook: Do GM’s ever take into consideration a player’s popularity among fans when deciding whether to re-sign a free agent? Or is it strictly performace and cost?
Keith Law: Owners probably do, but good GMs should never consider that.

Mike: I know you don’t like the sac bunt, but do you want a hitter going to the right side with a runner on 2nd & no outs or would you want him to just focus on a hit?
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard. Especially with the Happy Fun Ball.

Eric: Just a reminder that someone screamed at you incessantly that Ryan Howard was the preeminent power hitter of his time and his contract extension was a good idea.
Keith Law: And that someone is, last I checked, still employed to scream at people.

Boris: Does Elizabeth Warren’s stance on nuclear power concern you at all?
Keith Law: I disagree with her – nuclear power is pretty safe and doesn’t contribute at all to climate change – but 1) no candidate is going to match all of my views and 2) she’s shown herself to be fairly pro-science and may change her mind.

Joseph: Has Jordyn Adams impressed you this year? Just held his own?
Keith Law: Scouting reports were not favorable. He came into pro ball with less experience than most HS hitters, and the low K rate/total are promising.

Anthony: Do you think Willie Calhoun will hit enough to be an above average regular in the OF?
Keith Law: No, if we’re considering the value he’ll give back on defense.

Dave: You should look into adding chorus and delay pedals into your setup. Both add so much to guitar playing
Keith Law: It’s just me around the house, though. If I were playing with a band or even with friends, sure, but I’m just a hobbyist.

Preston: Assuming Soroka, Fried, Teheran & Folty are locks for starting rotation spots, who is the fifth starter for the Braves next season? Or instead of one guy, mix and match Anderson, Wright & Wilson?
Keith Law: Teheran has one year left on his deal and a 4.29 FIP this year. Folty can’t be counted on as a lock for 30 starts; neither can Soroka. I think they need to think more flexibly about their rotation for 2020 than assuming those four guys are locked in and the guys you mentioned + Touki are fighting for one spot.

Sean: What is the best case for Puk next year? ~20 starts and finishing the year as a power bullpen arm around 130-150 total innings?
Keith Law: Sure. Maybe on the lower end by innings, but it’ll depend on how he holds up.

Buddy: Do you follow the NFL? If so, did you see that OBJ wore a $300,000 watch during a game?
Keith Law: I did see that but I don’t understand why it was a big deal. If anything, shouldn’t he be concerned about breaking it?

Ben: Do you have a favorite one-player game?
Keith Law: I think Coffee Roaster is the best I’ve tried, with Friday a close second and definitely easier to learn.

Mike: I’m a pro-science guy, but I have to admit I’m really not a nuclear power fan. Yes, there are benefits to it, but that downside….I know, it’s very unlikely to happen. But I view nuclear power plants like idiots who ride motorcycles without helmets. Odds are nothing bad will happen, but when it does, oh boy!
Keith Law: We could start by, say, not building nuclear power plants on or near fault lines or on coasts that might be hit by tsunamis. The history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions, not really problems with nuclear power per se.

Jim P (TN): Do you think the success of BVW will lead to other clubs adopting the Mets model?
Keith Law: (spits out coffee)

Brent: Do you own an electric guitar as well?
Keith Law: Yep, a strat I’ve had for probably 20 years.

Josh: You watch (or watching) The Magicians show? My wife and I enjoyed the books, but the show seems much…lighter?
Keith Law: It’s on my “maybe some day” list. Loved the books.

Sean: Has Happy Fun Ball helped certain hitters more than others?
Keith Law: Of course it has, but I don’t think we really know who it’s helped more/most and won’t until the ball changes back – and it will. I don’t know what the baseball will be like in 2020, but I feel confident it won’t be the same as it was in 2019.

Joey: Hi Keith. As a recent divorcee who’s daughter has really taken to my new sig other, congrats. Moving on is always hard and having a child makes it scarier. But I’m glad you and your daughter nailed the landing.
Keith Law: Thank you. My daughter has really made me proud with how well she’s handled everything and how much maturity she’s shown in a situation where it would be perfectly fair and understandable for her to act like a kid, which she still is.

Sean: For anyone that thinks that the “downside” of nuclear power (catastrophic failure) makes it far worse than the benefits it provides, just retort with airplanes. Modern engineering is so ridiculously rigorous and robust that failures at a nuclear power plant require some sort of human-induced flaw and multiple steps before anything catastrophic happens.
Keith Law: Good points. Also, the downside of fossil fuels is a lot worse than the downside of nuclear power plants, and the former happens merely by using those fuels, whereas the latter only happens when there’s an actual disaster. (Availability bias!)

Joey: Luis Urías deserves at least another yr or 2 right? I get the Padres want to move to contention, but trying to rush development on a 22 yr seems like a sure fire way to sabotage a rebuild
Keith Law: For sure.

Jason: Is this the real Jorge Soler?
Keith Law: I think so, allowing that the Happy Fun Ball may be helping too.

Will: What should the Reds do with Gausman this off season? He’ll likely command $10MM+ in arbitration.
Keith Law: I’d give him that chance. The upside is there, and while the odds keep slipping … if that clicks, you get way more than $10 million in value.

Dr. Bob: If you get any more pedals, then you’ll need a pedal board to mount them on, add a tuner, maybe a volume pedal, then a better amp, and soon you’ll be haunting Craigslist looking for a deal on a Les Paul. It grows.
Keith Law: Yeah I love the hobby but I’m not looking for ways to spend more money or even acquire more stuff.

Matt M: Does Alek Thomas make it to big leagues sometime in 2020? Is he the future Dbax table setting lead off hitter?
Keith Law: He’s 19 and played just 23 games above low-A. That does not put any player on a timetable to see the majors a year later.

Jordan: Shane Baz started off early in the year with good BB/9 but it progressively got worse as the year went on. Control/command has always been the question about him. And while his BB/9 was manageable, I saw a lot of publications instantly move him up into their top 100. But I don’t think he is there yet.
Keith Law: Whether he’s on a top 100 – he was on mine – is not a function of his BB/9 (use BB% instead, by the way), but of his stuff, delivery, and projection.

Oscar: To play devils advocate on the nuclear power discussion, you say “the history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions.” But bad decisions ARE going to happen, inevitably, so don’t we want the results of those bad decisions to, I dunno, not kill us all?
Keith Law: The results of fossil fuel usage will kill us all.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Do I resign Wheeler? At what price? Seems like he’ll get $15-$20m or likely more a year for multiple years from someone, but I don’t think I can replace what he’s done— and in NY…
Keith Law: Make the QO, maybe offer 2-3 years, but my guess is someone outbids the Wilpons.

Raul: Manuel Margot since July 1
Keith Law: .254/.347/.486. Not quite the player I envisioned: I would have guessed more AVG/OBP and less power. He doesn’t strike out much at all, which is one reason I haven’t given up on him.

Guest: At some point does MLB have to realize that broadcasting playoffs games on FS1–with its relatively limited availability (especially in hotels)–is detrimental to expanding the game’s profile?
Keith Law: Well, that would mean MLB taking less money in the short term to grow the game in the long term, and the entire history of the league dating back to the 19th century says they won’t do that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions. I should be back as usual for a chat next Thursday and a Periscope either Tuesday or Wednesday. Book details soon … just not quite yet. Thanks again!

ESPN+ subscribers can see my column on prospects who’ve gotten the call this September.

Keith Law: I’m being held up by invisible men. Klawchat.

JR: If Alonso was having this type of season 20 years ago (or even 10) would he be a lock for NL MVP (or at least top 3 candidate) solely based on the fact he leads MLB in HRs (assume for purposes of my question he does end up as league leader)
Keith Law: Probably, given how voters thought 20 years ago. I’m not sorry that this has changed.

Joey: Is Wil Myers toast?
Keith Law: Seems dramatic … but he’s been so bad for just about two full years now I don’t see any reason to forecast an improvement.

Guest: Klaw, Thanks for the chats. Appreciate your time and insights. any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?
Keith Law: Saw him pitch on Sunday (as those of you who follow my mostly non-baseball Instagram account @mrkeithlaw know) and he was 96-100 for six innings with a plus slider and below-average changeup. It’s not a great delivery for a starter, and every scout I’ve asked about him has said they wrote him up as a high-leverage reliever. I think I’d feel better saying he could end up a Hader/Aroldis type out of the pen than saying he could be a mid-rotation stater.

addoeh: Why is the President more concerned about a state Dorian won’t come within a couple hundred miles of than states and territories and it has/will hit?
Keith Law: Might have to do with the electoral map.

Joe: Would you give Hunter Harvey another chance to start or just keep him in the pen?
Keith Law: I can’t see him starting after all those injuries and the extreme cross-body delivery he adopted back in low minors.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for doing these chats. I fail to see the logic of the opener, especially when they are followed by a bulk pitcher. Why use a good reliever in the first inning, followed by a bulk guy. It seems more logical to use the good reliever late in the game when there are fewer innings to recover from giving up a run. Please help me understand. Thanks!
Keith Law: The logic is that the first inning is the one inning where you’re guaranteed to face your opponent’s best hitters (1-2-3). You seldom get such an opportunity to line up your most effective one-inning arm against the best hitters in the other team’s lineup.

BigDaddeh: Is the prospect dream over for Florial?
Keith Law: No. I’ve never ranked him that highly because his pitch recognition is so bad, but you can also point to his youth and the fact that he’s had two significant injuries (hamate and wrist) in the last two years that probably hurt his performance as well.

Ben: What has Lux done differently to his game this season? It can’t be just the ball.
Keith Law: Just physical development, as far as I can tell.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw.

Benyamin Bailey is putting up an interesting .324/.477/.454 slash line in rookie ball as a 17 year old, with a 21% walk rate (with a 16% K rate). I’m having a hard time finding much info on him. What can you tell me about him? Is he a legit prospect? Thank You.
Keith Law: He’s not in rookie ball – he’s in the DSL, which is a step below that. I don’t pay any attention to stats there because the level of competition is so uneven.

mike sixel: Berrios seems to be fading again this year. A: Is he, or is it random? B: what, if anything, can be done about it (this year or next)? thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t realize how pronounced his career splits were by time of year – he’s clearly less effective in August and September, at least. Better question for the Twins people, obviously, who might have a better handle on any biomechanical indicators, but I would at least ask if using him less early in the season would help him hold his performance later.

Ben: Your thoughts on the AFL beginning almost a full month earlier than usual?
Keith Law: I understand why they did it: teams didn’t like shutting pitching prospects down for almost a month and then having them ramp back up to pitch in the AFL. That’s a good reason. But it sucks for just about every other stakeholder, including scouts – and most teams seem to value the scouting reports they get from that environment.

barbeach: Thanks as always for doing these chats. This week was another reminder that Brodie’s bullpen construction borders on malpractice. Is there anyone in that group with a real future?
Keith Law: First, I don’t think Diaz is toast; I’d bet on some regression to the mean next year, and I wonder if the altered baseball is helping make his slider so ineffective. Lugo’s been good and I think he’ll continue to be so. I think guys like Gsellman and Sewald are capable back-end relievers. It’s not a good group on the whole, but the Mets aren’t starting from scratch in 2020 either.

James: Last week the Royals bunted for a single, sac bunted which resulted in an error, then sac bunted again which also resulted in an error. The announcers talked about the great strategy. Then an assistant to the GM said that one of the stats that he thinks is UNDERAPPRECIATED is the RBI because not everyone can drive a guy in from second base with two outs.
Keith Law: Well, this might explain why they’re 13th in runs scored.
Keith Law: By the way, did I see a rumor that their new owner wants to extend Moore’s contract? Is that even possible?

BigDaddeh: The Rangers have been playing Solak at 3rd base. Even good shifting can’t hide the glove, right?
Keith Law: I’d agree with you on that.

J.P.: Do you concur with the decision not to call up Robert?
Keith Law: I understand it. The flip side is that he’s getting away with stuff in AAA that major-league pitchers will exploit, and for him to keep developing he has to come to the majors.

PA Prospects: Any chance Spencer Howard can legitimately help the Phillies over the final 3 weeks, or not worth the risk of health or mental issues if not ready?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea at all. I wonder if they’ll call him up when Reading is done, and thus have him skip the AFL.

Mark: Anthony Rendon is really turning on the Jets towards the end of the season.Does he enter into the MVP discussion in the N.L ?
Keith Law: His stats are virtually indistinguishable from Bellinger’s and he’s not far behind Yelich. He should already have been in the MVP discussion, if we’re discussing serious, worthy candidates. I don’t know if voters have already made up their minds though.

Sedona: Will Canario be in consideration for Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I don’t know for sure but right now would say probably not.

James: Did you play Tapestry and do a write up of it?
Keith Law: The game isn’t out yet. My review copy should be here in a few weeks, and I will review it. That’s a priority game for me even though my review queue is at least a dozen titles long (just for Paste etc., not counting games I’ll review on the dish).

Tim: Is there a plan with Vlad Guitierez usage next year? He was dominant last month as a starter. 10-15 starts for the Reds next year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long-term.

Chris: So…Good Eats: The Return. Must-see TV for you?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: What do you make of James Karinchak? Clearly he’s not a viable major league pitcher with his current walk rate, but the K rate is so absurd, is there possibly anything to dream on?
Keith Law: Just a novelty until he stops walking guys. Relievers sometimes turn that corner without warning – look at Kimbrel’s walk rates in the minors – but I have never thought we know which guys will do so.

Dana: I know the BABIP is unsustainable, but Bryan Reynolds has been incredible and he hit everywhere he’s been. Why was he never a top prospect?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit everywhere he’s been. He only slugged about .450 between high-A and double-A and was a touch old for both levels. Bear in mind I ranked him as a first-rounder out of college, so I thought those years were disappointing, but I also couldn’t rank him highly when he showed so little power for a corner OF.

Johnny Asel: What is wrong with Trevor Bauer this year?
Keith Law: Last year was the outlier.

JG: Should the Twins have concern about Buxton’s health going forward? Royce Lewis did play CF earlier this week…
Keith Law: Lewis can’t play SS. He has to move somewhere and CF makes the best use of his skills. I think that’s independent of Buxton’s injury history, but if BB doesn’t show he can stay healthy Lewis could usurp him.

Nick P: Have you read Fearless by Eric Blehm? Phenomenal read!
Keith Law: No, not really my genre.

Andy: Should the Tigers DFA Cabrera in the offseason? I’m not sure his spot on the major league roster is actually hurting the team long term?
Keith Law: I see 0% chance of that happening.

Nick P: Who is more valuable, Mike Soroka or Acuna Jr?
Keith Law: Acuna Jr. Not close.

Aaron G: Are the Astros the only (postseason) team with more than two starters that could reasonably get 3+ times through the order with any degree of confidence? I guess the Nats also fit that description, but that seems about it.
Keith Law: At a glance, those two are it.

mike: your weekly Biggio question, Defence is below average, good eye – seems to have average power but he’s nothing for a Jays fan to be excited about. Maybe a utility type bench guy right
Keith Law: Not even since he has no position. I enjoyed one Jays fan trying to troll me when Biggio had one good game, though. Stay dim.

Jubilant Earl: Last year, around this time, I asked if Christian McCafferey was going to be a top 5 RB in PPR. You’re response was terse; “what sport is that?” I need to know this year: will Aaron Jones be a top 5 RB in PPR?
Keith Law: Not close. Saquon, Elliott, the aforementioned McCaffrey, Kamara, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Gurley, Josh Jacobs … is Jones even top ten?

Hank: Has the Fernando Rodney trade lottery ticket Dakota Chalmers piqued your interest at all to follow in the AFL?
Keith Law: It’ll be interesting to see him but his delivery was pretty rough before the TJ. Maybe a two-pitch reliever?

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Rick: Hi Keith, Do any teams use RBI’s to judge players anymore. I sure hope not. Yet you will hear GM’s mention a players RBI’s many times Is the GM usually doing that because that is what the fans want to hear?
Keith Law: Probably yes, and because it’s easy (or lazy) to do so. But I don’t think any GMs still actively use RBI.

Hank: If Twins make a move for a frontline pitcher in the offseason, who would you rather hold on to: Kiriloff or Larnach?
Keith Law: Keep Kirilloff. I think he’s a superstar. Shame he was also pulled from the AFL.

Mr. Bergstrom: Hi Keith: would it make sense for MLB to return to a 154 game schedule in order to introduce another round of playoffs? Is there any reason to not do it?
Keith Law: Yes. One reason is that it takes 8 games (4 home games) away from ~18 of the teams. The other reason is that I fucking hate it.

Buscon Bob: Carlos Colemaneres, Venezualen SS, Top 2020 IFA?
Keith Law: No clue. Better question for Jesse Sanchez or my friends at Fangraphs.

Jon: Thank you for the chats Klaw. Thoughts on Joey Cantillo’s future? I know the velo isn’t there but it seems deceptive. Thanks
Keith Law: Correct, deception over stuff. Has value, hard to project starter.

Jared: Do you think James Karinchak will be closing for Cleveland by early 2020?
Keith Law: No. See above.

Mitch: What’s Patrick Sandoval’s ceiling? Mid rotation starter?
Keith Law: More back end.

Eric: fun stat:

In 2007, a 42-year-old Barry Bonds had a 1.045 OPS, and couldn’t find a job the next year because of reasons.

In the 12 years since, only 12 players have eclipsed that mark.
Keith Law: NO COLLUSION!

JG: Would you consider this a “bounce-back” year for Nick Gordon? Any improvement in his stock?
Keith Law: No. League-average OBP and below-average SLG while repeating the league.

Connor: Is Framber Valdez going to be anything more than a back end starter? That command just seems poor
Keith Law: Below-average for a starter, likely a reliever.

Jordan: I find it absolutely ridiculous that some Mets fans don’t care about losing Kelenic because he’s “just a prospect” and then they allude to guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Do they not understand that the deal was bad no matter how Kelenic turns out because Van Wagenen completely undervalued him in a trade for a reliever, the most volatile position in the sport? Diaz posting a 5+ ERA this year is just the cherry on top of an already terrible deal.
Keith Law: Exactly. And he also undervalued Dunn. And overvalued the guys he got. It reeked of a GM in over his head, trying to make a big splash in his first week on the job, and DiPoto saw an easy mark.

Mike: Do you see a guy like Brujan looking like a candidate to substantially boost his hitting profile once he moves up to AAA/MLB playing with the juiced ball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t really think the premise works – everyone hits better with this juiced ball.

Max: So, Jack Flaherty looks like an ace in his last 10 or so starts. Could he become that? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: I think I’d previously said #2 for him and would stick with that, but I’m not arguing. He’s good. Harvard-Westlake should produce more pitchers.

Max: Does Miguel Vargas have the potential to be the next great Dodgers position prospect?
Keith Law: He is a good prospect. The hyperbolic questions don’t really help, though.

Matthew: Tarik Skubal seems like a pop-up guy to a degree. His Double-A stats are pretty fancy though. Might he have a mid-rotation ceiling?
Keith Law: Answered last week. Real prospect, not a pop-up guy.

JR: Who’s the favorite right now for NY Cy Young?
Keith Law: DeGrom. Scherzer leads him in fWAR but DeGrom’s innings lead and counting stats will probably carry the day.

Eric: hey keith, can i go ahead and borrow some guns? a us representative said it’s cool to do that willy nilly.
Keith Law: Yep. Also drive my car. Doesn’t matter if you have a license.

Pete: Will Smith LAD is good but he’s playing over his head right now right? Is the ceiling a .350 OBP/30 hr bat?
Keith Law: More OBP. Maybe 25 HR but that’s quibbling.

Buscon Bob: Are you surprised more about Austin Meadows nearing 30 HRs or Travis d’Arnaud reaching 20?
Keith Law: Literally nothing surprises me with HR totals.

addoeh: The Cubs seem to have such an patchy record with developing their position players in the majors. Baez and Contreras have improved over time, but Almora, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, and Happ have either stayed the same or regressed. Are these outcomes about what one would expect or is it a concern?
Keith Law: Throw Russell out, not literally but … okay, well maybe literally. The others are all kind of surprising to me especially Almora. Thought he’d at least hit for empty average.

Matt: Give me some optimism here Keith, spencer Howard, how high is his ceiling? Did the Phillies finally find a gem in the draft with him?
Keith Law: See my post on him from last week.

ARod: You definitely would rather have a 2-run lead than a 13-run lead because even leads are gold.
Keith Law: He said that two straight weeks. It’s like he heard “sabermetrics” and googled “numerology.”

HH: If you had the choice between expanded rosters in September (as now) or expanded rosters in April, what would you prefer? I kinda think the latter would be more fun, and less disruptive to playoff races.
Keith Law: Yep and I think it would allow for slightly shorter spring training too, which I believe most players would favor.

Joey Joe Joe: Are you still in on Jakson Reetz? Seems to have put it together this year.
Keith Law: 23 repeating high-A. Wasn’t good when I saw him in the first half. Really need to see him do it at a higher level to buy in.

Stephen: I had submitted my question too late on Friday, so i will try it here: How would you rate the drafting decisions of Damon Oppenheimer over the last 4 or so years? in 2015 he drafted James Kaprielian & Kyle Holder while skipping over players like “Walker Buehler” “Austin Riley” not qbing from a distant, I just wonder if a team that will always be drafting low it is imperative that they hit on those picks. DO seems to miss more often. 2016 Blake Rutherford over so many others with more upside
Keith Law: Buehler needed TJ at the time and that may be why they passed – and why they took the same risk on Clarke Schmidt two years later. They’ve also found a lot of value lower in the draft.

Kevin: What is the bail amount set on Solar for murdering that baseball last night ?
Keith Law: That was a monster shot with any baseball. I go back and forth on how much of his breakout to buy, given how power-centric it is.

Ben: If you had only two nights in Chicago where would you eat for dinner those two nights?
Keith Law: Monteverde and Purple Pig.

romorr: DL Hall had a good season in A+ ball. The walks are a worry to me, but all I see is the stat line. Do you think it is a worry, or something fixable? Keeping him in A+ to work it out seems the smart play for 2020, right?
Keith Law: Great athlete with good delivery. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t improve.

Dylan: You say Brailyn Marquez has a below average changeup and is likely a reliever. But if I take this sharpie and add a few lines to his scouting report, he becomes a future #1 starter.
Keith Law: Yes, Mr. President. The truth is whatever you want it to be.

Keith: What is your POV on how teams should be handling high school pitchers in their first year after the draft? What were the varying approaches that different orgs took, and what are the pros and cons of each?
Keith Law: Other than being conservative with in-game pitch counts, which we know is a good idea, I think teams are mostly just guessing at how to keep them healthy.

romorr: Santander has been a bright spot for the Orioles this year, it’s not a seasons worth of ABs, but the results are there. Think he can be a viable starter in RF for 150+ games a year? I remember he wasn’t a nothing prospect, just lots of injuries.
Keith Law: Yeah I’m buying that one. Average regular.

Jerry: Thoughts on the Astros/Verlander flap with the Detroit reporter. I found it disappointing that the Astros and Verlander were that petty. One of the Astros former beat writers said on Twitter that this wasn’t the first time they’ve done something like that.
Keith Law: Astros were completely in the wrong, as was Verlander. Unequivocally so. If there’s an issue with the writer, it has to be handled at another time. The team is obligated to respect his credential.

jack: Can Alec Bohm be a competent 3rd baseman for a few years? Until the NL implements the dh
Keith Law: If “competent” means average, no. If it means a 45, yes.

JR: when you do the podcast with Buster, do you know what questions he will be asking you in advance so you can prepare? Or just shooting from the hip?
Keith Law: He tells me a few things before we start recording but that’s it. I think I do better when it’s extempore anyway.

John O’Reily: What is Roasny Contreras best case scenario
Keith Law: Tightens the CB and becomes a #3 starter.

Robert: Luis Basabe has had a better second half. Could some of his issues in the first half be related to the broken hamate? Is he a candidate for a bounceback in 2020?
Keith Law: I believe all of this is true.

Dice Throne: Have you played any of the games in the Dice Throne series? Hearing good things and wondering what you think
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Chad: Does Seager or Lux profile better as a shortstop going forward?
Keith Law: Lux, for me.

SK: So we’re now two years into Max Kepler hitting lefties as well as he hits righties. Considering how bad he was against lefties earlier in his career, is this sustainable?
Keith Law: I’m in. Now MLB needs to get his face on billboards all across Europe.

Buscon Bob: With the FSL playoffs cancelled, should Wander Franco be given a taste of AA?
Keith Law: Why not? I see no downside.

Ira: Aren’t the Yankees best served letting Didi walk and moving Torres to shortstop and using that money on a front line starter? I assume Didi will want long term deal.
Keith Law: I would.

Dan: Are there any literary classics like 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird, Catch 22, etc. that you make a point to read every so often just to make sure they’re always fresh in your mind?
Keith Law: No, just because there are too many other books I want to read.

Sarah: This was reported in late June – given the year he’s had, do you think it explains Bauer’s struggles? “On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.”
Keith Law: Of course, yes, it’s the reed.

Andy: I must have missed all the articles about how attendance plummeted for the White Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers. I was told (by others) that was the only possible outcome of extending the netting.
Keith Law: Yes, please send me those links.

Dallas: Do you have a preference between DRS and UZR? They can be so different for example Bogaerts is -20 DRS but 1.8 UZR; Rosario is similar -14 DRS -1.8 UZR?
Keith Law: I look at both, but prefer UZR slightly.

Henry: Your cat was outstanding on Baseball Tonight a a couple of weeks ago. Can’t wait for your new book.
Keith Law: He made a real racket this morning and I have no idea why. Thanks.

Guest: Small sample size for Aristides Aquino? Legit or somewhere in the middle?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the middle.

Scherzer’s Third Eye Color: With the likely Cole departure, and A’s getting Manaea,Puk, Luzardo and Montas back in the rotation. And a full season of Murphy at catcher, can A’s challenge Houston for the division in 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t necessarily buy that rotation. All four have had injury issues this year. Three have had multiple injuries in their careers. Montas never projected as a starter for me. How many total starts do you think the A’s get from that quartet next year? 75?

Anchen: Phillies fans seem to mostly hate Gabe Kapler at least as their manager. Do you have any views on him either on field decision making or off field? Example, he has for the most part not benched players who didn’t hustle. What do you think of the general cost/benefit of benching a player for something like that?
Keith Law: I don’t quite get the vitriol directed at him – my gut says that a lot of it is “he’s different, so we don’t like him.” He’s made good moves and bad moves, been good for some players and maybe not good for others, but I think he’s been a net positive, and I don’t blame him for the utter implosion of their opening day bullpen.

JM: If Rendon walks, can Kieboom play 140 effective games at 2nd or 3rd in 2020?
Keith Law: It’s an enormous drop in production. I think he needs to play 2b over 3b.

Jason: Can you name the one prospect whose stock has increased the most this season, and one whose stock has dropped the most?
Keith Law: Not right now. Maybe in December or January when I’ve taken a thorough look at everyone.

Dallas: Sheldon Neuse’s BP defensive rate stat FRAA is very good at 3B while in Triple-A; could he start at 3B for other teams giving Oakland a nice trade piece?
Keith Law: I don’t use that stat. Having seen him in the low minors, I think he could be average at third, probably the same at second.

Vincent Adultman: Have you traveled to Japan and how long of a stay would you recommend for a first time visiter?
Keith Law: Never been. Would love to go, for work or tourism.

romorr: Orioles have been bad, no denying. But this is a good bad right, giving guys playing time to see if anything sticks. Maybe find some value to build, or trade.
Keith Law: Yes. Elias et al inherited a very weak foundation.

Mike: Thoughts on Braxton Garrett this year? Any chance he’s going to crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he on my midseason top 50? He was a top 50 prospect before the injury – chance for plus command with an average fastball and plus breaking ball. Stuff is definitely back.

Ryan: Pavin Smith has had a very good season, and he really turned it up in the last couple of months. Have you heard about anything he may have done to improve in the second half? Thank you!
Keith Law: He’s had an okay season, for a first baseman. Still nowhere near enough power.

Matthew: Since acquiring Carson Kelly, has the door closed on Daulton Varsho as a catcher? Might he be a part-time backup?
Keith Law: Other teams doubted Varsho would stay at C before the trade, between his own defensive issues and the desire to get a bat/athlete like him to another position. So I think he moves permanently in the next 12 months.

A. person: First trip to NY in a few weeks. Staying in Manhattan. What should we eat?
Keith Law: I mean, it would depend entirely on what you like to eat. NYC has just about everything. You could go full New York and focus on pizza and bagels and Jewish and Italian-American food … but you could also take advantage of the cornucopia of cuisines available in the city’s innumerable ethnic communities.

Chris: Logan Gilbert seems to have answered most of the doubts some had about him at draft time. Is a #2 starter too lofty of a projection?
Keith Law: It’s within reach.

Brett: Do you ever wear hats? You strike me as someone who doesn’t wear hats.
Keith Law: If I’m at a game I almost always have a hat on.

Adam: Thoughts on the season Gabriel Arias is having?
Keith Law: So young for high-A … glad to see the good contact, but the low walk rate/moderately high K rate aren’t great. I hold to the fact that he’s just 19 in high-A, though.

Bill: Hey Keith. What was the most recent election in which you voted for a Republican?
Keith Law: 2004, I think?
Keith Law: Actually I may have voted for one or two downballot in 2008, when I lived in Massachusetts and there often weren’t two candidates listed for certain offices.

Jeremy B: Keith, no real question, just a thank you for suggesting Juniper & Ivy in past chats. Was in SD two weeks ago. Not sure I’ve ever had a meal that good. Thanks again
Keith Law: I haven’t been in 2+ years but am going in December come hell or high water. It’s one of the best restaurants in the country.

Jason: How easy is it to teach a group of people to play Everdell and to understand the game quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s easy to start. The game is structured in a way that the beginning round is simple, and the complexity increases as you go along, so you’re not just thrown to the wolves in round one.

Sam W : RE- Cy young. With the way he’s pitched the last two months and the cardinals ascent to the top of the division seemingly in conjunction, do you think that Jack Flaherty should be in the conversation with seemingly no clear front runner at the moment.
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This is a full-season award, not a last-two-months award.

Eric: while it’s more fun to make drawing on a hurricane map the news cycle for four stupid days, let’s not forget that there are children being locked up on our border and families being cruley separated every day. this should never be out of the news cycle as long as it is happening.
Keith Law: And efforts to legislate trans people out of existence. And rollbacks of environmental regulations that threaten our water supply, air quality, and global climate. And persistent attacks on women’s rights. And now the gutting of funds for our armed forces. And just wait until the next epidemic hits and we’re underfunded or just unwilling to send help.

Guest: Is Derek Hill’s glove still good enough to make him an everyday starter in Detroit?
Keith Law: He’s at least a half-grade of bat from that. The glove/speed make him a bench piece.

Aaron: What kind of upside do you think Simeon Woods has? Top of the rotation potential?
Keith Law: Hah, no, not close. Wrote him up here.

Chris (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — No question, just wanted to say thanks for all the great columns, chats, etc. I look forward to reading them every week. When you write your next book maybe you could consider a book signing in the Raleigh/Cary area. It would give you an excuse to partake in some of the food options here…
Keith Law: It’s on my personal short list of places where I didn’t do signings last time but would love to hit this time.

Mike: Re: Garrett – would you believe I looked at the 2019 and 2018 lists, but not the midseason? Apologies Keith – love the chats!
Keith Law: Thanks, I was unsure if I’d included him when you asked.

Mike: Favorite Minneapolis restaurant?
Keith Law: Revival.

Paul: I appreciate you keeping us up to date on your varied interests. What do you do to stay active? Are you into Tennis, Golf or anything like that?
Keith Law: I bike around the neighborhood in the spring and fall, usually with my daughter, and go to the gym in the winter. Never cared for golf. Would play tennis but am terrible at it.

Mark: So you went to Jamaica and stayed on the resort with a bunch of white people?
Keith Law: Good try, but no, the guests were mixed, whether by race or national origin. The only thing we all had in common was that we were all adults.

Kendra: You need to try Cloak and Petal and King and Queen Cantina in SD. Both just up the street from J&I. Also Craft and Commerce for drinks. And there’s a Salt and Straw there too. Really a great food city.
Keith Law: Excellent. I think I tried C&C once a few years ago. Thank you.

Jason: I’m very enthused by the start both Will Smith and Gavin Lux have gotten off to, but would you have traded one or both for a lockdown Closer like Vazquez knowing that it’s awfully tough to get to the World Series 2 yrs in a row, let alone 3x
Keith Law: No.

GOTCHA: why do people come to your chat to try to get you, like dumb mark?
Keith Law: It’s one dumb guy, pretty much every week. He doesn’t learn.

Brett: Are you an Apple Watch guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. I need fewer devices, not more.

Nick: When you say that a pitcher could be a 3 is that like Tanaka? Eduardo Rodriguez? The rotation is so different for each team a comp would be helpful.
Keith Law: I have two definitions I try to use for that. One is that there are roughly 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, 30 #2s, 30 #3s, etc. The other is that a #3 starter should be league-average, and you work outward from there. Both are a bit wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey but you get the gist.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m hoping to resume semi-regular periscopes now that the season is winding down, and my email newsletter should become more regular too. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Thanks again!

Keith Law: I guess I didn’t know. Klawchat.

Otto Adamvino: With Deivi Garcia, Schmidt, Gil & Medina all looking good lately, has the Yanks’ minor-league pitching taken a step forward overall this season? Do you project any/all of those four to be good MLB starters?
Keith Law: Garcia is the highest probability starter of the group for me. I’d project Schmidt to start, with some caveats about his durability. Medina probably has the highest ceiling, based on pure stuff and delivery, but the shortest track record of adequate performance (he’s been great recently, a complete turnaround from everything that came before). You didn’t mention Roansy Contreras, who I also think is a definite starter, or Luis Gil, more likely a reliever than the others in the group but nonzero starter potential. So yeah, pretty solid crop.

Bruce: Will Bo Bichette stay at SS? Does he have an All Star hit tool?
Keith Law: I would bet on him moving off shortstop, but I think he has at least a 60 hit tool.

Will: How close are Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano to their ceilings?
Keith Law: I would say they’re both at or right near their ceilings. Laureano has even exceeded my expectations for him when I saw him and wrote him up positively after the AFL in 2016, before the Astros tried to change his swing.

Tony: Man, Rhys Hoskins looks terrible. I know he’s not as good as he looked when he first came up, and probably isn’t this bad, but it really is starting to seem like he’s more Pat Burrell than Paul Goldschmidt at this point
Keith Law: A 120 wRC+ isn’t terrible; I think you’re reacting to how he gets to that figure (power and walks, lot of Ks, low average) rather than considering the total production. I’d say I’m more concerned about his defense than anything else.

VernRudyVanceDerekKeith LAW: The Pirates seem to have several rookies & young vets having pretty strong offensive years. I know they have no pitching, especially given Taillon’s injury, but is there enough of an offensive core there to build a contender?
Keith Law: Yes. But they need a lot of pitching to get there and right now I don’t see it in the system.

Danny: So I’m torn. I want Trump gone because he’s the most divisive and destructive American politician we may have ever seen. Recessions are terrible, although inevitable in economic cycles. Am I wrong to want this recession within the next year or so if it means helping get him voted out?
Keith Law: I had this same conversation with someone the other day … you can’t root for a recession, not if you have any sort of conscience, but the realistic view is that 1) recessions are inevitable, as you said, and 2) they often bounce a lot of incumbents, especially the President.

Paul: Hey Keith – my wife and I are trying to plan a trip in early December. Somewhere tropical, looking for something adults only, nice beache etc. I know you have been to a few any place that you have been that you would recommend?
Keith Law: My girlfriend and I just stayed at Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica, this month, and we thought it was fantastic – adults only, all inclusive, never had any need to leave the resort, incredibly friendly and helpful staff. The food was better than we’d expected too. We did see the largest stingray either of us could ever remember seeing, right on the beach, maybe three feet from the water line, so … swim carefully.

Tony Gonsolin: I have a legitimate 4 pitch mix with + grades and pitched well against NYY, ATL, STL and @ COL. What is my realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Slow down. You do not have four pitches with plus grades.

Sedona: Will Joe Palumbo and Justin Dunn be in their respective rotations in 2020? What are their ceilings?
Keith Law: That feels like a strong maybe in both cases (better than even odds, far from definite). Dunn potential #3 starter, Palumbo maybe a tick below that. I believe both guys can start.

Tevin: It got very little publicity at the time, but is the Randal Grichuk extension by the Jays the most confusing deal of the year? They gave him $50+ million for 5 years despite having him under control through 2020. He’s already 27, he’s a 1-2 win player (this year he’s even less) at a non-premium position.
Keith Law: I have always been befuddled with industry evaluations of Grichuk as more than an extra outfielder, which date back to when he was in the low minors. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear and I don’t think they’ve changed at all since he was a prospect, have they? That’s not a core player you try to lock up. You keep that guy, and pay him fairly, but save your long-term investments for guys like Bichette.

Sedona: Why can’t lefties hit lefties while righties can hit righties?
Keith Law: Right-handed batters have platoon splits; they’re just not as severe. I think the main reason is that there are so many fewer left-handed pitchers, so left-handed batters don’t get the same quantity of reps against same-side arms as RHB do. There could also be some selection bias at work, with teams particularly favoring LHP who have the breaking ball(s) to get lefties out.

Mark: Were you surprised Blake Swihart passed through waivers ? Kind of feel bad for the guy, the ankle injury ,parasites,his brother passing away. Is his career likely over ?
Keith Law: Surprised, a little. Career over, not at all.

Hank: Bryan Reynolds. How much of this is mirage, how much of it is sustainable?
Keith Law: The .410 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, by a large margin. His secondary skills are enough to make him a regular even when that bubble bursts.

Jason: On Monday, Atlanta had Billy Hamilton on third with 1 out, down by 1. The hitter (not very good) walked, bringing up the pitcher’s spot, and the two options were Tyler Flowers and Hechevarria. Although Hechevarria hit a sac fly to score the tying run, was that a rare situation where an out in play would probably have been preferable to a walk?
Keith Law: I may have missed something in your question, but I don’t see why that’s preferable; the walk loads the bases for whoever was on deck, who was not the pitcher.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw. You wake up tomorrow as Rick Hahn. Do you view your team as ready to compete for the playoffs next year? If so, what moves do you make? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do view them as contenders in 2020. First order of business would be adding a starting pitcher, probably via free agency.

Chris: O/U on David Peterson innings next year in majors: 100
Keith Law: With most teams I’d say over. I can’t figure out anything the Mets are doing; they are operating with such a short horizon that I find it hard to predict how they’ll use players or even who they’ll keep.

BigDaddeh: Would you be in favor of a mercy rule in baseball? And at what point? Up 12 runs after 7?
Keith Law: In the majors, no, please God no. In the minors, I’d be open to that rather than having position players pitching, because at that point the development is over.

davealden53: James Kaprielian keeps putting up competent or better 4 to 5 inning starts in Double-A. Might he be multi-inning option for the A’s in September and a #4 starter next year?
Keith Law: Yes to the former. I can’t predict his health after the TJ and long recovery … I thought he had #1 starter potential before he blew out, but can he hold his stuff and handle a starter’s workload? I don’t think anyone can reasonably answer that question.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Here in LA it felt like the Dodgers chances to win the WS dropped from 33% to 20% after the Yankees beat up Ryu and also will likely get home field advantage — and the Astros might too. Over-reaction to one 3 game series?
Keith Law: There is no reaction to a 3-game series that is not an overreaction.

addoeh: While he’s in Poland next week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II, do you think the Chosen One will pull aside the Czech Republic leader to ask if the Sudetenland is available for sale?
Keith Law: No, he’ll ask Czechia to give the Sudetenland to Putin.

Jon: Do you think the Phillies should bring Spencer Howard up in September?
Keith Law: If the weather holds, I’ll see him tonight. I have heard the stuff has tapered off since he came off the IL.

NMN: Please weigh in on Joe Girardi using R+RBI-HR, in two-thousand-freakin-nineteen, to come up with an MVP candidates list.
Keith Law: I missed that, and oh my god, no.

Kik: What are your general thoughts of the Jays pitching prospects besides Pearson?
Keith Law: Manoah is next in their pitching prospect rankings. I haven’t seen Murphy this year around his injuries, but the stuff has apparently been legit for a starter … if he can stay healthy. Maybe he’s a multi-inning reliever, but either way, he’s a real prospect. I think there’s a big dropoff to their next arm – they have some intriguing bats in short-season, but the pitching is pretty short.

Sebastian: Francisco Alvarez’s stat line looks great for a 17 year old in the Appy league. Top 3 prospect in the Mets system?
Keith Law: Top 5.

Chris: Amed Rosario has looked better at dish. Is his glove at SS league average?
Keith Law: It hasn’t been, and maybe they decide to give up on him there because they believe in Gimenez, but I don’t see any tangible reason Rosario can’t be a competent shortstop – not tools, not mental skills. His regression has been shocking.

Steve: I know they won’t do it, but given that the Rays are locked in a battle for a wild card spot would calling up Wander Franco be worth it or would it be too premature?
Keith Law: Premature.

Johnny Utah: Any restaurant recommendations for Maui or the Big Island?
Keith Law: Never been, unfortunately, only Oahu and Kauai. Enjoy, though – I’m jealous. Would love to see Volcanoes National Park.

Matthew: I completed my first ever script late last year for a potential tv show and I’m debating writing a fiction book or another script about a redemption story and how love of a sport brought a family together from turmoil and I’m wondering if it would be better it being a book or a screenplay?
Keith Law: I feel like you may have asked this before … it’s really a question for either a literary agent or someone on the publishing side. I don’t know anything about it; I just writes the words.

Mark : What was the difference between Billy Hamilton as an amateur SS in the minors and Trea Turner as an amateur SS defensively in the minors?
Keith Law: About four grades.

Zac: Of the Erie Seawolves rotation (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Wentz) who are starters long term and who is a reliever
Keith Law: Skubal, Manning, and a healthy Mize are all good starters. Faedo is a reliever for me. Wentz is in the middle.

John: Would you say the Phillies biggest issue right now is player development or bad drafting? Or is a combination? How do you quickly and efficiently overhaul and entire dev department or scouting department?
Keith Law: They’ve had very poor results in the first round in particular, and I think you have to start there, but it is also fair to point to all the players who’ve regressed in their farm system over the last two years as well. The system-wide hitting approach this year really hasn’t worked out.

Coffee Grind: New to French Press but such a production for one cuppa coffee! Buying coarse ground coffee at local roaster but when do u get accustomed to the labor of warm up cup, carafe, presumably buy a kettle with temperature gauge , wait 4/5 min, then have coffee get cold some 10 min after plunge?
Keith Law: I don’t use a french press – I use a V60 pour-over – but really, you don’t need to do all that. Boil the water, wait about 30 seconds, and pour over the grounds. Splash a little of the extra hot water in the cup so it’s not cold when the coffee hits it. Steep the coffee for four minutes and pour. That’s it. The rest is eyewash.

MikeM: Whats Glyber’s ceiling? Hes 22 and hitting for more power than anyone projected (juiced ball caveats apply) and seemingly improving. Is he in the same class of player as Acuna and the other young phenoms?
Keith Law: He’s in the same class as Acuna for me, although I think both guys have benefited a lot from the juiced ball and Gleyber has especially benefited from, uh, his strength of schedule.

NMN: What’s current boardgame #1?
Keith Law: I’ve been debating that this year, since I’m about 2.5 months from my annual top 100 update. Tough to dislodge Carcassonne but all else being equal I think I’m more likely to pull out 7 Wonders if we have enough players and they’re okay with the game’s slightly more complicated rules.

Hank: Can we expect to see Luis Robert this year? If so, what can we expect? I know he doesn’t seem to hit when you are there, and you had concerns with his hit tool in the past.
Keith Law: I don’t know if he comes up this year due to service time/40-man space, but if he does I expect a lot of inconsistency with some real high points. A lot like Moncada so far, actually, at least in terms of the production. Major league pitchers are going to exploit Robert with velocity in, in a way he hasn’t seen much in the minors, and he has to show he can adjust to that.

addoeh: How would you rank the Caribbean islands you’ve visited?
Keith Law: The Jamaica experience was top-notch, but it was all within the resort, not about the entire island (friends of mine who were born there discouraged me from exploring). Aruba is probably my favorite and the most user-friendly. Puerto Rico has the benefit of an urban environment and culture that lets you get the best of both worlds – beach in the afternoon, dinner or nightlife in the evening. Bear in mind I haven’t been to PR or St. Thomas since before the twin hurricanes, though.

Trevor: Daulton Varsho in consideration for a top 100 update?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on mine?
Keith Law: Also, probably not a catcher. Seems like AZ agrees.

Juice: Where do you land on Tahnaj Thomas? Is he getting by solely on velocity or is he a legit arm in the Pirates’ system?
Keith Law: Big velocity guy. Not enough of a complete pitcher.

Jake: What are your impressions of Bubic this yr? Has he made any adjustments you are aware of or just a case of needing to be moved up/challenged?
Keith Law: Too advanced for A-ball, but the stuff is a lot of average. Back end starter without real upside.

Moe Mentum: Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law: Heard of it but haven’t read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

John : When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law: That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.

Moe Mentum: At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law: Yes to all three (and I’d vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.

Alex: Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law: I would not. That’s a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.

Amir: You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: Hate it, but I accept it’s inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it’s not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
Keith Law: This is essentially my take on prostitution … I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it’s going to exist whether it’s legal or not.

Beeds: Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods … where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law: Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I’d say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that’s at least comparable.

JT: I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I’ve only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren’t as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law: There’s some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think – this is a better question for researchers, I’m just cribbing what they’ve found – that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don’t throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.

JT: You’ve never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there’s a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he’s got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you’re unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law: Not at all. He’s not worth the roster spot.

Jason: My apologies for not being clear enough. The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow). With Hamilton on third, it doesn’t take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law: Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I’d need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it’s high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law: The tools aren’t really there – he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.

Nick: Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M’s rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law: He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.

Steve: You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation. You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously. Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law: I’m divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don’t mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.

Pat D: It’s pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right? I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law: It’s sad when you can read that question in the President’s voice and find it totally plausible.

David: What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law: I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven’t booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.

Matt: Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that’s gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law: It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?

Jason: Keith…is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably yes.

Ridley: So…trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says “There is no one more X than me,” or “I’m the least Y person in the world,” that’s a helluva tell. I’d love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law: The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices – we often hear of countries ‘dumping’ goods, although that’s often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs – would restore long-term balance. I’m pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you’d be right in just about each individual case.

Nick: Who’s your NL ROY?
Keith Law: With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?

Pat D: Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year? Would you watch “Joker” if it garners any nominations, even though it’s ostensibly a “comic book” movie?
Keith Law: Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon…, haven’t come out yet. I’ll watch Joker if it’s supposed to be good, and not just “good for a comic book movie.”

Mat Ji: What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

MTL: Mike Yastrzemski has been a good story for the Giants this season. Is he for real?
Keith Law: Extra OF, tops. Juiced ball has helped him, as well as just small sample size.

Zach: Do you think the ball has made GMs pause for a second for locking up young players? As a Yankee fan, watching Torres hit 40hrs as middle infielder, but if MLB changes the balls back to “normal” is he suddenly “just” 30hr power? (Yes the power numbers are just round numbers for this hypothetical).
Keith Law: To your general question, yes, it’s affecting how teams value players, and we’ll see that more this offseason (I think). Torres is pretty great at 20 HR, though.

OC Joe: @Johnny Utah: Mama’s Fish House in Maui is fantastic. Book well in advance.
Keith Law: Multiple people responded with this suggestion.

Kevin: Could Gilberto Jimenez be the Red Sox best prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: I saw him, and I like him, but I’d be very surprised if he made that large of a leap over guys like Casas and perhaps Groome now that he’s back and pitching.

Erik: how far along are you in Doctor Who? thoughts?
Keith Law: Finished S4, including the specials. (They really do lay it on thick when an actor leaves, don’t they?) I enjoy it, even though a lot of it is silly; they poke sufficient fun at themselves, and the point is nearly always the relationships between the Doctor and Companion(s), and the Doctor and certain other recurring characters.

Jay: Riley Greene has been struggling a bit at the plate since his move to full-season A. Is he still just getting adjusted to professional-level pitching or do you think it’s a bigger issue of swing mechanics?
Keith Law: That’s a huge jump for a kid who was still in high school three months ago.

Dylan: you have said previously that you do not believe zack collins has made any adjustments but Rick Hahn and the stats seem to indicate that he has (.365/.464/.713 with 10 hr and 21 bb in 33 games since he has returned to AAA compared to 9 hr 36 bb .2500/.374/.482 in the 50 AAA games prior to his call up)
Keith Law: I saw him. It’s the same guy. Be careful slicing that thinly or you will see what you want to see.

Roxanne: I hate Christian Yelich.
Keith Law: Roxanne, you don’t have to click that send tweet button.

Zach: Thoughts on non-meat alternatives reaching “mainstream” fast food restaurants? Yay for alternatives, but Nay for 900 calorie sandwiches?
Keith Law: Yay for alternatives, especially since many of these are substantially more environmentally friendly than beef. If you want to eat a 900 calorie sandwich, it’s your body. I don’t love policing how healthful others’ diets are; I’m more concerned with ensuring sustainable food and water supplies.

Tom: But seriously… What would you do if your parents were serious Trumpers? It really sucks since, you know, I love my parents. It’s just unfathomable to me how they’ve gone this far. It really is the Fox News effect.
Keith Law: I haven’t faced anything like this, fortunately, but I would cut off any family member who was a serious Trump supporter. You can’t approve of the white nationalism, the anti-LGBT policies, the environmental destruction in the name of profits, and still act like we have some sort of emotional bond. If you don’t think trans people are people, well, fuck off.

Julie : I’m an O’s fan looking for good news in the minors, and I realize I should take overall team performance there with a large grain of salt, but is there anything positive to be gleaned from Delmarva’s success this year? I feel like just being in a winning environment has to help the psyche a bit, although obviously that does not necessarily translate to success down the line. I know you’re not as high on Grayson Rodriguez as some are, but outside him and Adley, are there any solid ML prospects there? Also, it’s cool that Ryan Mountcastle won the IL MVP, but I already knew that didn’t mean a whole lot historically without even looking at the list, then saw that last year’s league MVP is already playing in Japan.
Keith Law: Adam Hall for Delmarva has also had a good year and I think he’s a regular. Some quality relievers there. There are some signs of hope in the low minors. I’m not a big Mountcastle believer, though; he lacks a position and his low OBPs are probably chronic.

Larry: That Nick Solak players I missed on article is writing itself.
Keith Law: After 25 at bats? Go call the people who tried to troll me when Austin Riley had a great first two weeks and see how they’re doing. I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Bret: Keith – has a certain type of pitcher been hurt by the juiced baseball or is it something that affects everyone equally? Thinking a guy who might make a rebound of sorts…assuming they change the ball back. Thanks.
Keith Law: Probably yes. Almost certainly yes. I would love to have Statcast data to explore that question, as I think that’s where you might find them.

Dylan: Do you see Nick Madrigal being able to sustain his 3% k rate in the majors next season?
Keith Law: No.

KC: Kyle Hendricks is a player you missed on. No biggie of course. Is there a way to ID any other 88 mph wonders?
Keith Law: He was in one of my year-end columns on those guys, too. I’d still bet against any RHP throwing a below-average fastball; their margin for error could be measured in microns.

Danny: Re comic book movies- did you watch/enjoy the second Christopher Nolan Batman- fun thriller with some great individual performances but you do have to ask why this dude is running around dressed like a bat growling like a schmo
Keith Law: The Dark Knight was fine, but I didn’t quite understand the acclaim. I thought it had one incredible performance, was generally well written, but still relied on conventions of the genre and went on a bit too long. I never saw the Dark Knight Returns.

Glenn T : At an A’s meet and greet event in Tokyo during the Opening Series in March, an A’s official hinted at the A’s returning to Japan within the next few years. Are you privy to any future plans MLB is considering for visits to Japan and other countries?
Keith Law: London again next year. Regular trips to PR/Mexico/perhaps somewhere else in Latin America. The rumor I’ve heard, but that is totally unconfirmed, is that MLB would like to play games in continental Europe. The Netherlands seems like such an obvious spot if they can find a facility, since the sport has a real following there.

tj: Now that you saw Clarke shmidt, would you say all things combined u like him better than Garcia?
Keith Law: I would not.

Tevin: Soroka for NL ROY over Alonso, no?
Keith Law: I’d vote for Alonso over Soroka.

Matt: How do we sign up for your newsletter?
Keith Law: Sign up here. I send them once every two weeks or so, when I have content to tell you about.

Sean: Do you think Jhoan Duran’s emergence this year is real and what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Real, yes. Whether he’s a mid-rotation starter or high-value reliever, I don’t know. I hear both. Maybe that ‘splinker’ is more than just a once-through-the-order weapon?

Zach: Republicans/Trans people – I feel like most Republicans are pissed they “lost” the gay rights battle, so they’re going all out not to “lose” the trans rights battle.
Keith Law: That’s a good point, and at least has the ring of truth. Also, I think GOP strategists have found more ignorance of or outright prejudice against trans people, and they’re exploiting it. It’s venal.

Jon: When Conforto was coming up through the minors, did you ever view him as a streaky hitter? He gets bashed by a lot of Mets fans because of this, even though his overall numbers are still very good.
Keith Law: No, I never thought that. Not really sure ‘streaky’ hitters are a thing … a hitter’s hits are never going to be uniformly distributed throughout the season.

Paul: Is the juiced ball here to stay? Per that earlier question, if this is the new normal, and teams are valuing players based on that – it can really screw something up long term. For instance a player like Alonso, probably loses a lot/all? of his value if he is more of a 30hr guy at 1b.
Keith Law: MLB will almost certainly tinker with the ball this winter, but we can’t predict how, or what the effects would be. To your point, however, yes, I think we will see some contracts that look fine in this high HR environment that suddenly look worse if the ball even goes halfway back to where it was. I’m trying not to sound like I’m yelling at a cloud, but seeing one baseball in the majors and another in AA and below is kind of maddening when it comes to writing about or evaluating players.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for the many notes of support and empathy that I didn’t post for the public. I really appreciate the kind works. With my daughter back in school the chats should be more regular and I will try to get back on to an every Thursday schedule starting next week. Thanks for reading. Have a safe Labor Day weekend.