A Summons to Memphis.

My NL ROY ballot will go up tonight for Insiders, once the winner is announced; my last post over on that other site is on the Craig Kimbrel trade. My favorite comments so far have been tweets telling me I’m wrong, from people (at least three) who haven’t actually read the article. Yay Internet.

While working my way through the list of winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (until 1948 the Pulitzer Prize for the Novel), I’ve been somewhat surprised at how few winners have remained actively read books over the years. Some of the winners were duds, and only a handful made my own top 100 list, but the majority have at least been good books – above-average novels, at least, which should be enough to keep them around; perhaps it’s just the flood of new titles that pushes them off of the mainstream reader’s radar. Peter Taylor’s 1987 novel A Summons to Memphis is one of these – a good novel, amusing and serious, distinctly American in theme and outlook, enough that I’d recommend it but wouldn’t put it on my own rankings.

The narrator, Phillip Carver, gets the titular summons from his two spinster sisters because their widowed father, now 81, plans to marry again, to a somewhat younger woman, which of course raises questions of inheritance as well as of public perceptions. The sisters are comic entities in themselves – virginal in fact and in behavior, as if their emotional development stopped at age 15 while their bodies continued to swell to near-obesity in their fifties – while Phillip, more put together, has also never married, bearing the same scars as his sisters do from the traumatic move of their childhood. When their father was caught up in a scandal in Nashville, he had to move the family to Memphis and restart his career, uprooting them all, including their mother and another brother who later died in World War II, from the comfortable life they knew in the genteel city that sounds like Margaret Mitchell would have approved of it. Memphis is depicted as rougher, déclassé, foreign to the family, with each of the three children having to give up a potential marriage somewhere along the way due to their father’s disapproval or outright meddling. Although the novel opens with the summons, Phillip doesn’t make the actual trip to Memphis – the first of several, as it turns out – until about two-thirds of the way through the novel, after he’s told the reader of his childhood and the lost loves of the three siblings via a series of flashbacks.

There’s an element of King Lear in this book, although it’s not as explicit as the allusion made in a later Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, the torpid A Thousand Acres. King Lear had three daughters, two of whom earn his favor through false flattery with an eye toward increasing their inheritance at their sisters’ expenses, but Lear descends into madness in his old age and the infighting between the siblings leads to … well, it’s a tragedy by Shakespeare, so you know they all die. A Summons to Memphis relies instead on emotional violence: the father wrecked the lives of his children, especially the sisters, so they have now come around to wreck what remains of his by blocking his attempt to marry again. Phillip, the one child who moved away from Tennessee and thus has escaped somewhat unscathed (a slight parallel to Cordelia, especially as both characters are reserved when discussing their emotions), ends up the one with some semblance of a thawing of his relationship with their father, even as the girls continue to plot their revenge to the bitter end.

The move a few hundred miles west, without even crossing state lines, seems to underscore the extent of the betrayal by the father’s business partner, who engineered the kind of financial scam that will never go out of style; while the elder Mr. Carver was cleared of any wrongdoing, it seems that he was unable to escape the shame in his own mind of his involvement, and, more importantly, of the fact that a man he considered his best friend was capable of such treason. This one event fractured their life as a family twice – once when he relocated the whole unit, including their servants, to Memphis; then again, when he exerts his authority over each family member to bend them to his will. So many individual moments and elements of the book are humorous, but the overall effect is one of deep emotional scarring.

I looked to see if any critics inferred the Lear comparison, and one of the greatest living American novelists, Marilynne Robinson, did just that in her 1986 review of the novel for the NY Times. Robinson, author of Housekeeping and the three related books that began with her own Pulitzer winner, Gilead, is a master of words and of characterization, so if she agrees with me on something, I view that as an enormous validation.

Next up: Another forgotten winner of the Pulizter, John P. Marquard’s 1938 satire The Late George Apley.

Saturday five, 11/14/15.

I have analyses up for Insiders on the Aaron Hicks-John Ryan Murphy trade, the Andrelton Simmons trade, and the Craig Kimbrel trade. I also held my weekly Klawchat here on the dish.

My various offseason buyers’ guides all went up this week:
Catchers
Corner infielders
Middle infielders
Outfielders
Starting pitchers
Relief pitchers

Plus, you all saw my ranking of my all-time favorite boardgames, right?

And now, the links…

  • One of the bigger surprises on Art Angels, the outstanding new album from Grimes (née Claire Boucher), is the presence of the female Taiwanese rapper who goes by the name Aristophanes. Fader has a little more info on her with some Soundcloud links.
  • The Atlantic has a good review of Art Angels that talks about Grimes’ emerging fame and choice of musical direction. I’ll try to get a review of the album up early next week.
  • Public schools in Louisiana are teaching kids Christianity and creationism, a blatant violation of federal law and of the students’ rights.
  • The New Yorker has an excellent piece up on using “free speech” to distract from discussions of racism, focusing on the protests at Yale and the University of Missouri. The Yale controversy has seemed particularly easy to parse to me: You don’t get to go around in blackface in a closed environment and then claim you’re exercising your free speech rights. You get expelled.
  • Pennsylvania has the second-worst student immunization rate in the nation, but there are bills pending in their legislature to end the “philosophical exemption” (that is, the opt-out for parents too stupid to understand basic science), while the state’s departments of health and education are working to end the “grace period” that allows kids to attend school before they’ve gotten all their shots. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette‘s editorial board supports these moves, as do I, not least because the state of Delaware told me building a border wall was too expensive.
  • Doctors need to do a better job of encouraging parents to give their kids the HPV vaccine, according to Aaron Carroll, Professor of Pediatrics at Kyle Schwarber’s alma mater (well, technically at IU’s Medical School). The problem, in Carroll’s view, is that it touches on ignorance about vaccines as well as the dirty dirty subject of teens having sex.
  • J. Kenji Lopez-Alt talked to NPR’s Here and Now, and the resulting interview includes three recipes from his new cookbook The Food Lab: Better Home Cooking Through Science.
  • The BBC has a quirky story up on a brand-new record store in Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia. And if all you know of Mongolia is “Mongolian barbecue,” well, that’s Taiwanese, sorry.
  • Last week’s links included a story on Elizabeth Holmes, the Stanford dropout whose blood-testing startup Theranos may have lied about its product’s capabilities. The Washington Post has a story on how the NY Times erased Holmes from a story on tech heroes, as well as failing to discuss a potential conflict of interest by that story’s author.
  • This story by a pro-science skeptical blogger about an vaccine-denier nut job is a bit inside-baseball, as the saying goes, but highly amusing.

Klawchat 11/12/15.

My analysis of the Yanks/Twins trade is up for Insiders, as is my buyers’ guide to starting pitchers. As always, questions go in the box here, not in the comments. Thanks!

Klaw: If there’s a new way, I’ll be the first in line. Klawchat.

Brandon: What do the Angels have to give up to land Tehran? Seems like a GREAT buy low guy.
Klaw: What do they have to go get anyone other than Newcomb? System is very thin and much of what’s good is so far away that the trade value is limited.

Nick: What type of ceiling offensively do you see for Conforto?
Klaw: .300+ average, 20 or so HR, high high OBPs. I think he’s a hell of a hitter.

Kevin: What do you think of the return the Padres got for Benoit? Is Nelson Ward a legit SS prospect?
Klaw: Very meh. Ward played six games at short all year, by the way. He’s a 2b.

James: How ridiculous is Simmons not winning the gold glove?
Klaw: Almost as ridiculous as caring about the Gold Gloves. I gave up on them.

Patrick: What’s keeping Christian Colon from being an everyday 2nd baseman? Not consistent enough stick?
Klaw: Yes. Although those high-contact no-power guys often hit their way into more regular playing time.

John: Is Herrera a reasonable upgrade at 2B for the Mets?
Klaw: I think so; what I saw of him in the minors told me he’d be an above-average defender at 2b, but he was erratic in the majors when he played there.

Dan: Not a question, but want to point out to those that call you arrogant that you listed Schilling on your fake HOF ballot. You personally oppose many of his viewpoints (and have had repercussions because of it) yet you are able to put that aside and recognize his accomplishments.
Klaw: I appreciate that, but people who call me this or that aren’t going to change their opinions based on facts because their original opinions weren’t based on facts either.

Addoeh: So no Math 55?
Klaw: Math 21 (multivariate calc with vectors) was it for me. I regret it – I would have enjoyed more math classes but felt burned out on math after HS and didn’t fully grasp what other areas of math (e.g., number theory, topology,, statistics) were out there to study.

Marshall: Speaking of political philosophy, can you recall a presidential primary so devoid of facts as what we have seen thus far on the Republican side?
Klaw: Are any of them ever built around facts? It’s more rhetoric and sound bytes, right?

Jason: Are the Braves truly and honestly rebuilding? Or is there a sense that Liberty Media is in cost cutting mode and mandating some of these trades?
Klaw: They’re rebuilding. I have talked to lots of folks there and no one has said anything about ownership mandating cost cutting.

Sean: 50 games for smoking pot? That has to be one of the most ridiculous things I’ve heard in a long time.
Klaw: And only for minor leaguers. I don’t get why MLB wanted it, or why the MLBPA signed off on it. If they want to come down harder on cocaine, I’d be fine with that – use that and you’re a serious danger to yourself and possibly your teammates, and it can clearly affect your performance negatively. Marijuana? Not so much. And it’s increasingly legal across the states.

Owen (London): What actually gets asked in managerial interviews ? Are GMs and owners looking for dazzling examples of in-game acumen or are they sounding out guys who agree to give good copy and toe the line ? In other words, what magic sentence did Dusty utter to land the gig ? I’m still baffled.
Klaw: I don’t know what exactly is asked, but a lot of those interviews are just eyewash – they’ve already decided who they want to hire, but have to go through the process for everyone else to see it. I do know a few clubs who ask very specific questions on tactics or on developing players, and I think those folks – Tampa Bay is one certain example – get better results.

Todd: Hardest class you took at Harvard?
Klaw: Never took anything that hard (partly my fault; I didn’t exactly seek out the challenges) but had some that were so excruciatingly boring that I didn’t fare so well. I remember a government (political philosophy) class my freshman year where we had to read the classics of the field – Locke, Rousseau, Mill, Huntington – and for the first and only time in my life, I hated reading.

Scott Upham: Alex Meyer had a trying season in 2015 (being polite). What is his future outlook – closer/reliever or starter?
Klaw: Has to be reliever at least for now.

Pat: Lot of angst about giving up Shelby Miller for Heyward, but what people don’t understand is that Heyward now understands what is means to play for the Cardinals. That has to go a long way in getting a hometown discount. Can you see the Cards getting him and a front line starter like Price if both take a little less to win?
Klaw: Hometown discounts don’t exist, and also, it’s not his hometown – Atlanta is, more or less. And by the way, players can get full freight and still go to a winner. It’s not like Heyward would sign with, say, Boston or the Yankees and never sniff the playoffs again.

Marshall: Adam Brett Walker has immense power, but horrid OBP skills – given his age is there much precedent in him developing that ability enough to be a useful MLB player?
Klaw: I can’t think of an example of one. He’ll get an opportunity, but he won’t succeed barring a huge change in approach.

Sam: Do you think Kelby Tomlinson has the tools to play the outfield as the Giants hope?
Klaw: No, nor do I think he’ll hit enough to play every day.

Jay: Chris Young a perfect Schwarber caddy?
Klaw: Yes, but I wouldn’t want to platoon Schwarber – let him face lefties and learn to hit them.

Jason: Keith, did you see Jacoby Jones in the AFL? What do you think is his ultimate position, IF, OF, or both in some kind of UT?
Klaw: Utility only. Don’t think he’ll hit enough to play anywhere every day. And not a shortstop at all.

Archibald Meatpants: How do most scouts weight fastball velocity vs. fastball movement/command when evaluating pitchers? Just asking, because there are some guys in the upper 90s who seem to get smashed, while other guys really make 91-93 play up.
Klaw: Should be two separate categories. You can have an 80 fastball with 30 life. Seriously, you can have it, because I don’t want it.

Todd Benzinger: Would a Betts for Thor trade work for both sides?
Klaw: That’s a lot better although I’d still rather have Betts.

Glen: Is Ian Clarkin going to turn into a decent starting pitcher?
Klaw: If healthy, he should. Still has the size and the breaking ball. Arm actually works fine. Pitching is brutal, man.

Matt: Would you really consider the White Sox having a “surplus of pitching”? Outside of Sale/Quintana/Rodon there isn’t much quality there, right?
Klaw: When I was doing the starting pitcher trade targets today, one thing became pretty obvious: No one has a surplus of pitching, really. Even the Mets are five deep and only five deep. If someone – I’m not even saying a name, not that I believe in such woo but I don’t want to seem like i’m wishing for it – there gets hurt, who steps in? They’ve traded any possible fill-in starter who was close.

Moose: Is Christian Arroyo for real? MLB comp?
Klaw: Can hit, not a shortstop.

Scarface Joe: What kind of package is Chapman going to bring back? He’s dominant, but it’s one year for a reliever. Who’s the team that pays up for that?
Klaw: Dombrowski? Has to be a team with an ardent desire to win now and willingness to move prospects for immediate value.

mike: Haven’t heard the Russell hot rumor but what dj you think about a quintana for baez package?
Klaw: I would want a little more for the White Sox there. Baez has a very high beta – still a good chance he’s not even a regular. Quintana’s very good and cheap.

Flaming Buns: Let’s say Gray and Sale are truly unavailable. Who’s the most logical young #1 starter target for Boston? Carrasco, Ross, Archer?
Klaw: Carrasco. Not saying he’s AVAILABLE, but that I think they’d listen to a rich offer. That’s a guy I’d go after with Swihart.

Tyler: Did you get a look at Manaea in AZ? Possibility for a midseason call-up?
Klaw: Yes. Better than I’d seen him in July. Check my AFL blog posts for more details.

Ken Rosenthal: Benoit to M’s
Klaw: I had this written for the buyers’ guide for tomorrow (and will now be taking it out of the piece): Benoit is a “good when healthy” guy, although even that underrates him a little since he’s thrown at least 54 innings in six straight seasons, just missing most of the last six weeks of 2014. The Padres picked up his $7.5 million option for 2016, which seems awfully steep for a guy who might be worth a win above replacement if he throws 65 innings, but they may also have figured he has some trade value if they agree to pay a third or so of his salary. He’ll show three above-average pitches, with the changeup plus, and was in the top dozen relievers in the majors for contact rate (according to Fangraphs) in 2015. He’s 38 with quite a bit of mileage on him, but would be an upgrade for a lot of teams in the 8th inning.

Ryan: How would you vote with the 10 person limit? Do you just pick the best 10 or do you try to “game” the system and leave off the sure thing to get some other guys in there?
Klaw: Ten best guys because I think that’s the mandate. I don’t like gaming the system even though the system is a bad joke.

JA: What do you think of Baggarly’s proposed trade of Maybin and Teheran for Pagan, Strickland, Beede, and Williamson?
Klaw: Don’t like it for Atlanta. Beede’s value has dropped with his velocity as he’s now a sinkerballer with poor control.

Glen: Thoughts on Mateo possibly moving to 2nd base?
Klaw: Don’t get it – thought he had at least average defender potential at short, maybe more. Certainly fast enough to play anywhere on the field.

Roddy: I truly believe the White Sox are going to surprise people next year. With a surplus of pitching do you see them moving Quintana? Hot rumor is a trade with the Cubs for Russell to replace Alexei.
Klaw: That’s a hot rumor that makes no sense for the Cubs.

Michael: Is the contract Heyward gets a sort of litmus test for how far sabermetrics have come in front offices? It seems like 10 years ago, he would have been way undervalued.
Klaw: I agree … and I agree.

Joshua: Swihart to Nats for Reynaldo Lopez? Start to a discussion, or a complete hang up?
Klaw: Nowhere near enough for Swihart. I think Lopez is more likely to end up in the pen.

Bruce K: My son is 12 years old and a high level reader. It is tough to find books that challenge him that are still age appropriate. Do you have any suggestions?
Klaw: Running into similar trouble with my daughter. Have you tried Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer? That’s a series now, and the vocab is appropriate.

Tyler: Did the Hall Board reject the increase from 10 to 12 names on the ballot as a backdoor way to make it more difficult for PED guys to get in? Otherwise, I don’t get the “not the right time” talking point.
Klaw: There is no question in my mind that that was their intent. All the more reason for us to vote for Bonds and Clemens!

Chris: Any favorite slow cooker recipes?
Klaw: All questions allowed. Still a big fan of throwing a pork shoulder in there for carnitas. Also love short ribs with dried figs and a bright red wine.

Jack: Just curious, at what point after posting a question should I assume that specific one won’t be answered – 5 minutes or so?
Klaw: I could probably stop taking questions now and be set for the rest of the hour. I see all the questions but can’t possibly answer them all. Sorry.

Georgia: Even taking away the “I won’t vote for him first year” crowd, how does a HOF candidate go from 55% to 75% over a few years? Are voters not taking it seriously? If you think Raines is a HOF guy, or not, it shouldn’t change much this year to next.
Klaw: But it does/has over history. The process is awful, and it allows for way too much wanking by the voters over their own ballots. Part of me would like to get that ten years in and get the ballot. Part of me would like to drive the bulldozer that razes the building to the ground.

Mark in Toronto: Have your thoughts on Rowdy Tellez’s chances changed?
Klaw: You’d know the answer if you read my AFL posts…

Chris: Would you trade Swihart for pitching assuming Vasquez comes back?
Klaw: Yes, if the pitching was high-end enough. I think Swihart has a chance to be a star too, a plus defensive catcher who hits. It may take time to get to that value, and that is the only reason I’d be willing to discuss moving him.

Bob Pollard: Max Kepler – star or just a guy?
Klaw: Chance for a star.

Andy: What are the chances of Bagwell getting into the Hall on this years ballot?
Klaw: I think Piazza and Junior – who, by the way, was well-known within the industry as an unpleasant person (I’m being kind) while he was a player, yet is revered by fans who revile other players of higher character – get in, and Bagwell makes a big move up. Raines is the one who worries me most – he needs a big jump this year to get in spitting distance for the final-year bump.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Percentage of GM Speak we should believe: 18%. Over or Under?
Klaw: Under. They have little incentive to tell us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Michael: A lot of Yankee blogs suggest Gary Sanchez has matured–apparently he had a kid. Is that not what you’re hearing or are you basing your opinion on old reports?
Klaw: If they reported he had a kid I’m sure that’s true. I just saw the guy play in the AFL a few weeks ago, so “old reports” doesn’t apply here.

Haymaker: Cubs and Royals are apparently asking Boston about Jackie Bradley, Jr. Do you think his bat will play at the Big League level long-term? Also, what is your best guess as to what it would take from the Cubs to entice Boston to move him (based on your knowledge of both systems/needs)?
Klaw: I think it’ll play, without much power. He’s better when he stays short to the ball and uses the opposite field. When he gets long to try to hit the ball out, the strikeouts pile up. Maybe eventually he can do it all at the same time, but I haven’t seen any of that from him.

Scott Upham: Which current minor leaguers resemble the Mike Trout- / George Springer / Mookie Betts multi-tool profile?
Klaw: Benintendi has a lot of that – CF, run/power combo, people love the feel to hit, although he doesn’t have the explosive speed of the guys you mentioned. Lewis Brinson comes to mind too.

Gary: I’ve scene you review a lot of sci-fi novels. Have you ever read Asimov’s Foundation trilogy? If so, thoughts? I’m getting ready to start Foundation.
Klaw: Read it in HS and loved it. Books 4 and 5 started to slip and I never read the books in the series by other authors.

Michael: What would you realistically do if Mike Trout did what Jose Reyes allegedly did? Would you actually release or trade the best player?
Klaw: I’d trade him, yes. Or I’d quit. But you all know I’m weird like that.

Jake: Would the Padres look to deal Ian Kennedy if he accepts their QO?
Klaw: They can’t until June 15th.

Alex in Austin: Aoki’s $5.5M option seemed like a given. Instead Giants buy it out for $700k? If you exercise, at worst is that not a tradeable asset?
Klaw: Probably a tick overpriced given age/health concerns (just in the sense that he’s probably not a 140-150 game player). But salaries are moving up so fast that it could end up seeming like fair value by February.

Mike P.: Would you move Giles no matter what? Or only if blown away? And what would it take to be blown away?
Klaw: He’s in tomorrow’s buyers’ guide post. Only if blown away.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can the Nats actually expect to field a lineup that has Taylor, Ramos and Escobar/Espinosa and expect to compete?
Klaw: I have a feeling, based on nothing but my own gut, that they’ll do something in CF. Can’t see them running Taylor’s bat out there every day.

Tim: Did you care for the new Grimes album? Any standouts?
Klaw: Loved it – one of the best of the year. Flesh Without Blood, California, the new version of REALiTi, the title track, Venus Fly all great.

Archie: I know you mentioned him in your write up, but do you think Kepler starts Opening Day now that Hicks is gone?
Klaw: I think he’s ready, and he’s already on the 40-man, and this is the team that pushed Hicks to the majors before he was fully ready (so it’s not like they’re wildly service-time conscious). I think there’s a decent chance, at least.

Bob: Thanks for the board game list. However, I’m suffering form information overload here. My wife dislikes board games because I’m too competitive or they’re too complicated. Knowledge-based games are no good because I know so much strange stuff. Therefore, we haven’t played a new game since Trivial Pursuit. Thoughts on a good two-person game that might bridge the gap?
Klaw: I put a list of the best two-player games below the main list. Start at the top of that and work your way down…

Scott Upham: With Hicks now a Yankee, who is the odd men out in Minnesota’s OF between Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia et al
Klaw: I think Rosario is probably out, and I would guess Arcia is/ends up on the outside too. A lot depends on whether Sano can handle an outfield corner.

Justin (DC): Love the board game lists. I didn’t see much turnover this year over last year though. I think Broom Service at 17 was the highest new board game. Quiet year, or just the best games are already out there?
Klaw: That’s correct. Broom Service won the Kennerspiel des Jahres, so I’m not alone in thinking it was the best of the year. Nothing came along like Splendor to upend the whole market.

Mike: Mark Simon wrote an article today about a hypothetical Mookie Betts for Matt Harvey swap. Good deal for both sides?
Klaw: I’m not dealing five years of Betts for three of Harvey.

Tim: Noticed you didn’t include Jay Bruce in your outfielders offseason guide. Is his value (with the option) so low that trading him wouldn’t get the Reds a decent (#75-100) prospect in return?
Klaw: He might – those guides aren’t supposed to name every single player who might be traded. I pick a few I find interesting/likely but I will miss a few who get moved.

Busty Daker: What do you think the Dodgers would realistically have to give up to make a Simmons trade happen?
Klaw: I’ve talked to a few folks in Boca who said the Simmons stuff is overblown – everyone’s talking every player, but unless Atlanta gets blown away, he’s probably not going anywhere. His contract is so cheap they really can ask for the sun and the moon – Seager and DeLeon too much? OK, we’ll keep Simmons instead. Thanks.

Michael: Do teams use advanced stats from minor league games or is evaluation 100% based on scouting?
Klaw: Lots of advanced analysis on minor league data going on.

Marshall: A team like Detroit seems to be stuck in a sort of purgatory – not going to win their division, not many good prospects, aging players signed to long contracts. Do they keep spending until the wheels fall off of Miggy, or make everyone (including Miggy) available right now?
Klaw: Sounds like they’ll spend to patch the major-league roster now while slowly trying to build the system back up. Dombrowski viewed the farm strictly as currency for trades. Avila views it as a real farm system, one that should produce players for the major-league roster too.

JA: Would you buy low on Doug Fister? Do you believe he can be a quality starter in the rotation again?
Klaw: I would, but recognize the risk. You could get him and he posts a 6 ERA by mid-May and you have to release him. It’s not likely but it is a nonzero probability outcome.

Geoff: What can you tell us hopeless Rockies fans about Antonio Senzatela? He doesn’t seem to get mentioned with the other promising arms in the system but his stats suggest he should.
Klaw: I had him 14th in their system going into the year. Strike-thrower without great stuff, needs a better swing-and-miss offspeed pitch.

Tom: White Sox do have a pretty decent “surplus” of pitching prospects, no?
Klaw: They do? I’m not sure anyone really has that right now, but I don’t think the White Sox do. Houston would have a good argument that they have the biggest collection of potential SP prospects.

Rich: Another thank you for the board game list, specifically the mention of the games for which quality apps are available. I can’t decide if having my books and games on my iPad is progress, or something else, though.
Klaw: I do both – apps and physical games, dead trees and ebooks. Sometimes the ebook is just cheaper. And you can’t exactly bust out Stone Age on the plane.

Bob: When Houston tanked a couple of years ago, did they build up the farm system through the draft or through trading vets for prospects or a combo? My real question is if it’s really possible in this environment to significantly upgrade your farm system through trades?
Klaw: Both. They picked first overall three straight years. They hit on a handful of lower-round picks. They traded sharply. It’s a model for other teams – not THE model, but A model that works if you have the right personnel in your front office and on your scouting staffs.

chris: read that the yankees should sign heyward, where exactly would he fit in with that roster? nobody will take beltran to ellsbury
Klaw: Beltran’s got a year left, so that’s just dead money they could even release. Ellsbury is harder to figure – is he a sunk cost at this point? Could they swap him for a bad pitching contract?

Barry. Florida: Would you describe yourself as a progressive or libertarian?
Klaw: Probably neither. I just am.

John: How far away is Dom Smith?
Klaw: Figure he starts at Binghamton, and if he does what I expect, finishes in triple-A and could make his debut as early as September but more likely next year.

Rob: Do you think you’re going to try Pandemic Legacy, or does that concept not really appeal to you? You ranked Pandemic highly and PL is zooming up the BGG charts.
Klaw: Don’t like the concept of destroying the board. Plus the idea of playing a single game 15 or 20 straight times … have you seen my collection? Not happening. The BGG charts are useful but often bonkers. Lots of 3-4 hour games all over the top of their rankings. Those are not my people.

Chris: Would you tender Ruben Tejada at $2M or so? Read something about Mets considering just going w/ Reynolds and Flores next year. That wreaks of cheapness, to me.
Klaw: Feel like you could tender and trade him. That’s peanuts for a second-tier starter/good UT.

Andrew: Does the Astros IF future have Bregman at SS and Correa at 3B?
Klaw: Doubt it. Correa’s a better defender than Bregman.

Jack: Any update on Nimmo? Feels like he isn’t really progressing. Is he a 4th OF?
Klaw: Yes, I’m in that camp now. Gave him a lot of chances, but can’t play CF and has too little power/doesn’t hit LHP well enough for a corner.

Sam: Should I be concerned that mets prospects seem too far away. By the time they are producing, pitching will be close to free agency.
Klaw: I agree. It was the price of those big acquisitions this summer.

sam: I know the thought of a 6 man rotation seems ridiculous, especially given the diminishing return of a 6th starter, but given all the injury concerns for the Yanks (& Severino’s awkward delivery & small frame), would you try it if you were them to try to keep all 6 as fresh & productive as possible? That way, if one breaks down 2 months into the season, you still have a 5 man rotation that’s had its innings reduced for 1/3 the season.
Klaw: Someone’s going to try it soon. I think we’re coming up on an era of experimentation with the whole pitching paradigm. The Rays had three starters in 2015 who were twice-through-the-order guys. Maybe someone goes with a 4-man rotation where no one ever faces more than 18 batters?

Ryan: Reading Lance Lynn knew there was something wrong in June but refused the idea of surgery. He went on to have a pretty poor September and was a non factor in the playoffs. At what point is it the player’s responsibility to recognize you are injured and stop trying to tough it out?
Klaw: Maybe he thought he was helping the team … I agree that players should speak up when hurt but don’t like the idea of criticizing a player for trying to stay on the field.

Marshall: KLaw you raise a salient point, people act as if there is A singular model to building a team. In the end, the teams that most accurately judge and and acquire talent are the teams that win. In a lot of cases that ability is not something that can continually be sustained over the long haul.
Klaw: For example, what Kansas City just did probably isn’t replicable. It took them nearly a decade to win the WS – not criticizing them, BTW – and they had to have so much go right the last two years, in terms of players all developing at the same time, maxing out returns on major trades (the Greinke deal went from “okay” to “holy crap arrest Dayton Moore for larceny”), and key guys staying healthy. You can’t just put that in a business plan.

Johnny: Where the hell has Top Chef been??
Klaw: December 2nd return. Can’t wait.

Chris: Ugh just remembering the Mets traded Meisner for Clippard AND Robles was probably more effective down stretch is nauseating. How could a club give Clippard more than a year in FA?
Klaw: I wouldn’t – that’s why I didn’t list him on my top 50. Everything pointed down for him in the first half; that’s why there wasn’t much of a market for him until the Mets showed up.

Tom: With your characterization of Griffey below, is the lesson to be learned between him and Bonds is that, if you’re going to be a jerk, don’t do it where the public can see you?
Klaw: No question.

Steve: Hi Keith. A difficult question to answer, I’m sure, but here goes. I’m married to a woman from Vietnam, and she’s interested in learning new approaches to critical thinking and logic, because her formal education in those skills just wasn’t very good (her opinion). Do you have any recommendations that might help her improve in those areas? For example, a certain board game, or book, or anything else you think might help her better develop these specific skills. Thanks a lot.
Klaw: That is a difficult question. Most great board games are built somehow on math or logic, even if it’s not directly visible to the players. Knizia’s games, like Samurai or Tigris & Euphrates, have that as a huge component. I’d also suggest books like The Invisible Gorilla or Think Twice as highly accessible books that discuss things like cognitive illusions and improved decision-making. Oh, and don’t watch the Republican debates.

Andrew: There is a narrative out there which suggests that the Astros have a negative reputation and will have trouble attracting FAs. Is this overblown and/or has recent success diluted this notion?
Klaw: Nonexistent. What a dumb narrative. You know what attracts free agents every time, without fail? Money.

Michael: Do you know what it is about baseball that makes injuries to a star or great player diminish him so much that almost any replacement could be better? Is the difference between being good and bad that small?
Klaw: I would guess – no science here, just a quick reaction – that it is a function of the minuscule degrees of timing required in hitting a baseball or throwing one well enough to hit a spot or miss a bat. Interfere with that in the slightest way and the player is a fraction of himself.

Eric. Florida: Are you for free-speech zones? Do you think this is very progressive?
Klaw: I don’t even know what that means. Free speech is a right guaranteed us all by the First Amendment. It means if you want to run around in blackface, the government can’t arrest you for being a racist asshole. But if you want to run around in blackface on campus, the college can suspend or expel you, because that’s a private institution. Do it at work and your employer can fire you. Do it on TV or on social media and the same can happen. Free speech doesn’t protect you from private consequences. It only means that the government can’t stop you or punish you.

Michael, DC: What do you think is the most efficient way for a small market (read, cheap owner) team like Cleveland to allocate its offseason resources? Trading from SP depth to get a power bat, buying a few mid-low level FAs or continuing to develop from within?
Klaw: Developing from within is always the answer, but isn’t an offseason plan: If the players aren’t there yet, you have to do something else. Trading a starter for multiple young pieces when you know you can’t go buy stars in free agency makes sense. You take on the risk and the time lag (acquiring players who might produce less in 2016 than the established pitcher you gave up) as the cost of doing business with low revenues and a tiny payroll.

Tom: Keith, Zack Greinke is the only free agent who said he went to a team (Dodgers) because they offered him the most money. Every other free agent wants a chance to win. That’s what they say. So I think you’re WAY off there.
Klaw: Oh, well, if that’s what they say, it must be true, because no one ever mouthed a platitude to the media just to satisfy the likes of you.

Forsyth: Does JBJ for Carson Smith of the Mariners make sense for both sides?
Klaw: Not at all.

Alex: Do the Cubs benefit more from trading say Baez or Soler or Castro for pitching, and signing say Heyward? Or signing Price, and holding on to the kids a bit longer and see how things shake out?
Klaw: I say keep Soler, who has the best combination of upside and the probability of reaching it. Trade one of the other two, because there aren’t enough AB to go around otherwise anyway: Bryant 3b, Russell ss, Baez/Castro 2b, Rizzo 1b, Schwarber LF, Soler RF.

Dave: How would you rate the Mets big 5 pitchers going forward? Would you think of trading any of then for a bat?
Klaw: Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, Matz. I’d deal Matz, who has the worst history of durability of the group. But then they’re short a starter.

N: Out of the box question klaw. First off, thank you for all the non-baseball stuff you indulge in on your blog, perirscope, twitter and here in the chats. I recently started dating someone who considers herself to have a mild anxiety disorder and has been diagnosed as manic-depressive. We’ve been together for a few months and things have been great and are getting serious. Considering your background with anxiety, do you have any recommendations for someone on the other side of it in a relationship? I don’t suffer from either of those illnesses, but want to be as sympathetic and supportive as I can.
Klaw: That’s not an easy question – and I’d advise you to talk to a therapist who deals with such issues if you can, just to better acquaint yourself. Learning to recognize the signs of someone who’s “off” is probably the biggest key; whether it’s forgetting to take whatever meds she’s supposed to be on or facing a trigger like stress or otherwise losing her routine, it can change her personality, and you have to be ready to provide support while also managing the change in her mood, demeanor, even language.

Drew: Any chance you see Roark bouncing back to anything approximating his 2014 form? Or should the Nats replace him with Cole?
Klaw: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Roark, Cole. Did I forget someone?

Noah: Is Maikel Franco a future superstar?
Klaw: I do not think so. I think he’s an above-average regular.

Richie: Any chance the Mets look to trade Plawecki considering they need a bat and arent likely to trade any of their pitchers? What could a guy like him bring back?
Klaw: I think someone asked me that in the periscope yesterday and I don’t have a good answer. D’Arnaud could be an All-Star, a top 25 player in the league, if he could stay healthy and catch 130 games. I don’t have a ton of confidence that he’ll do that. If you keep Plawecki, you can move d’Arnaud around, give him a few days off now and then when he needs it, and still get production from behind the plate. If you move him, you will get a lot of zeroes from back there.

Jay: Are the Braves in on other international FAS besides Kevin Maitan? And is that handshake deal still legit?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about others but I haven’t looked into it. Those deals are totally illegal and nobody cares.

@RationalMLBfan: Lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner. Granted, he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup and has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons, but isn’t a valuable player valuable, regardless of distribution of success of handedness? And he has an affordable contract. What is the urgency to trade him?
Klaw: I don’t see the urgency. I could see them saying they want to move Ellsbury for another bad contract, but Gardner in LF and Hicks in CF and any non-Beltran solution in RF looks pretty good to me.

Drew: Ross is the other potential Nats starter I had in mind. Does he need more time in AA/AAA?
Klaw: Ah, you’re right, I did forget someone. I’d put him over Cole in the depth chart and probably over Roark, although that may be my longtime affinity for Ross speaking.

Patrick: I must have missed your comments regarding Gary Sanchez. Do you think he can be a backup this season and eventually the #1 in NY?
Klaw: I think he needs to go to AAA and catch every day so he can work on receiving, framing, and being focused on every pitch. The one thing he can really do back there is throw, though.

Sean: Cubs need two SP. Would seem one will come from a trade but instead of huge $ pitcher with Arietta voming up mext year, how about Leake? Seems it would be reasonable $/ouput and be a more consistant Hendricjs type of pitcher with more track record and ground balls. Agree?
Klaw: I do agree, but I think Leake is a fit for about 20 clubs, and also I read that as “Arietta vomiting up” next year, which disturbed me.

Jason: With the latest setback for Reyes is he going to be able to break the rotation next year in St. Louis?
Klaw: Maybe midyear? Stuff is there, command isn’t, also missed a lot of time with that shoulder issue and the delivery isn’t helping matters. Don’t think the suspension costs him that much.

Bret: Keith, I know you’ve written about how medications for your anxiety has made such a difference for you. How would you suggest speaking to someone about opting to try medication for mental health challenges if they don’t seem open to the idea?
Klaw: Send him/her to a therapist first. I was fortunate in the sense that I have people close to me who were already taking SSRIs and I knew how they worked and that that was what I needed. Talking to a professional might help your friend.

Noah: if your the Phillies and you’re picking first, do you draft one of the top players that’s willing to sign below slot?
Klaw: If there is no clear 1-1 on draft day – there isn’t one yet – then you make your board, talk to the top 2-3 guys, offer each of them slot for #2 (or maybe #3) and see who takes it. You want that savings so you can go over slot with your next pick, maybe your next two.

FireDrayton: Sorry for re-posting, but figured I’d try again. What level of starting pitcher has comparable value to an elite closer? In other words, you’d rather have X starting pitcher than Chapman, with X being the worst SP who is still more valuable than an elite closer.
Klaw: I’d rather have a mid-rotation starter than an elite closer. 200 innings vs 60. WAR tends to agree with that. You have to place a very high value on performance in high-leverage spots to favor the closer there.

Jason: Who is the best prospect that no one knew of at the beginning of the year?
Klaw: Willson Contreras?

Jack: Was d’Arnaud exposed defensively in the WS like people seem to think? I mean, it was the Royals after all.
Klaw: The Royals exposed a lot of people this year, by which I mean they were just a really fucking good baseball team. That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for coming and firing so many questions at me. I’ll chat next week on Thursday, most likely, and I’ll reveal my NL Rookie of the Year ballot on Monday when the results are announced. Cheers.

Top 80 boardgames.

This is now the eighth iteration of my own personal boardgame rankings, a list that’s now up to 80 titles, up twenty this time from last year’s list. It’s not intended to be a critic’s list or an analytical take on the games; it’s about 80% based on how much we enjoy the games, with everything else – packaging and design, simplicity of rules, and in one case, the game’s importance within its niche – making up the rest.

I don’t mind a complex game, but I prefer games that offer more with less – there is an elegance in simple rules or mechanics that lead to a fun, competitive game. Don’t expect this to line up with the rankings at BoardGameGeek, where there’s something of a bias toward more complex games, which is fine but doesn’t line up perfectly with my own tastes.

I’ve expanded the list to include several games I have only played via iOS app implementations, rather than physical copies. As always, clicking on the game title takes you to amazon.com; if I have a full review posted here or on Paste magazine’s site, the link to that will follow immediately. I’ve linked to app reviews where appropriate too. I’ve got most of these games in my aStore on amazon as well, unless they’re totally out of print.

I’ve added a list of titles at the end that I have played at least once but not enough to offer a review of them or rank them. Many of those will appear on a future list once I get to play them more – I might update this list in a few weeks as we keep playing, as I’ve got a pretty long list of games to try out.

Finally, as with last year’s list, you’ll find a complexity grade to the end of each review, low/medium/high, to make it easier for you to jump around and see what games might appeal to you. I don’t think there’s better or worse complexity, just different levels for different kinds of players. My wife prefers medium; I’m somewhere between medium and high. This isn’t like ordering a filet and asking for it well done.

80. XCOM: The Board Game. Full review. A moderately successful adaptation of a wildly successful cooperative videogame, where players work to protect the planet against a massive alien invasion, facing multiple types of mounting threats as the game advances. Comes with a free app that helps run the game session. I just found the game a bit too complicated no matter how many players we had. Complexity: Medium-high.
[Read more…]

Mona Lisa Overdrive.

My buyers’ guide to the outfielder market is up for Insiders. Also, I’ll have my annual boardgame rankings post up later this week, but as a preview, my #1 game is still Carcassonne and it’s on sale now for $22.59 on amazon.

William Gibson’s Sprawl trilogy began with the seminal 1984 novel Neuromancer, which was the first book to win the trifecta of sci-fi awards (the Hugo, the Nebula, and the Philip K. Dick); the book kickstarted the cyberpunk movement, foresaw all manner of cultural shifts that would come about due to the wiring of the world, and may have even helped shape some of the Internet’s early development. I read it in 2005, and it still stands out as a unique work of speculative fiction, one that is overwhelmingly intelligent without ever becoming inaccessible, with a bleak yet expansive vision of a future that isn’t quite dystopian but is certainly light on flowers and rainbows.

I read the sequel, Count Zero, around this time last year, and it didn’t move the needle much for me, as the tripartite storytelling technique felt disjointed, and it was never quite clear why I cared about any of what was going on. The conclusion of the trilogy, Mona Lisa Overdrive, ties the Count Zero plot together with threads from Neuromancer (bringing back Molly, one of that book’s two protagonists), in a highly ambitious storyline that was engrossing but never gets the coherent ending that Gibson probably had in mind.

The narrative of MLO starts from scratch, as we are dropped into four subplots that, as in the preceding book, will all come together by the conclusion, including a not-quite-dead hacker on a stretcher who is comatose and permanently jacked in to the “matrix” and the simstim (a sort of cyberspace reality TV show) star Angela Mitchell whom we met in Count Zero. Someone is after these two people, for reasons that even at the end of the book aren’t exactly clear, leading to a sort of creeping chase throughout the novel where, at first, the targets aren’t even aware anyone’s after them, and various other characters are “used” without their knowledge as part of the hunt.

Gibson’s brilliance in Neuromancer was in his foresight, seeing the potential gains and dangers of the then-nascent technology and concocting a fictional environment that built a culture around the tech – being connected, or interconnected, will change us all in substantial ways, from how we work to how we interact with each other. (It already has, in the First and Third Worlds, albeit in differing ways.) He became a cyberpunk prophet for the depth and incisiveness of his vision; he didn’t just talk about hacking, but about what hacking and hackers might be like. It’s not hard science fiction where we get lengthy explanations of how stuff works; Gibson takes that as a given, which can make his prose a bit confusing at times due to his neologisms and colloquial dialogue, but also has the effect of putting the reader more directly in the story while allowing him to focus on character and emotion.

However, Mona Lisa Overdrive‘s climax falls quite a bit short of his lofty goals. Gibson began to touch on the topic of digital immortality, of uploading one’s “personality” into the matrix to continue to function after the death of the body, but it becomes a mere plot device here, with no exploration of any of the myriad questions around the possibility. The reasons for the conspiracy to kidnap Angela Mitchell or the hunt for the comatose man are still ambiguous after the conclusion, while the actual denouement seems deliberately open-ended and rather unsatisfying. I read Gibson for his vision, but I think here he didn’t offer enough of it.

Next up: Peter Taylor’s 1987 Pulitzer-winning novel A Summons to Memphis.

King of Tokyo.

I’ve owned the great, silly family boardgame King of Tokyo for over a year, but we always seemed to overlook it for other games I needed to review for Paste* or in favor of a longtime favorite of my daughter’s (like Splendor). We broke it out this weekend, however, and after a few more plays I can give it a fair review: It’s awesome, one of the best games we own that’s not just suitable for her to play (she’s nine), but which she can fully understand without making us feel like we’re playing something dumbed down for the kids.

* My latest review for them covers the app version of Camel Up; I have a review of the new edition of Mission: Red Planet coming up next week.

Designed by Magic: the Gathering creator Richard Garfield, King of Tokyo does have one major difference from most of the games I review here and for Paste: Players can be eliminated, and in fact one of the two victory conditions is to be the last player standing. That doesn’t always go over well with the young ‘un, especially since an eliminated player might have to sit around (or go watch Littlest Pet Shop) and wait for the game to finish. There’s also a way to win without elimination, just by becoming the first player to reach 20 victory points, which in our experience was the more common outcome.

Players in King of Tokyo – not to be confused with our variant, King of Totoro, or the perpetually-hungry King of Town – represent monsters fighting for control of Tokyo. Each player begins the game with 10 health points and zero victory points. Only one monster can control Tokyo at any given time, and once there, s/he becomes the target of attacks by all other players – and can, in turn, attack everyone else at once. Each player rolls six dice on his/her turn, which can result in combinations of points, healing, attacks, or energy cubes which become currency with which to purchase cards that grant additional powers or points. The dice have six sides: 1, 2, 3, attack (a paw mark), energy, or healing (a heart). On a turn, the player rolls all six, then may reroll one or more of the dice, and reroll one more time before settling on the six results. If the player gets at least three dice showing the same number on its face, s/he earns one victory point per die – so anywhere from three to six points on the turn. An attack die takes a health point away from an opponent: if you’re in Tokyo, all your opponents lose a health point, whereas if you’re not in Tokyo, the player who is loses a health point. Each heart you roll gets you back one health point, but only if you’re not in Tokyo.

If you’re in Tokyo and are sick and tired of those monsters attacking you, you can choose to cede Tokyo to any attacking monster right after you’ve been hit. But if you stick it out, you get two victory points for every one of your turns you begin in the city of Tokyo. Any player who moves into Tokyo gains one victory point for doing so, including the first player to occupy the city by rolling the first attack (paw) of the game. In games with five or six players, the second Tokyo space, for Tokyo Bay, also enters play, so two players can occupy the city at once, and their attacks on other players don’t affect each other.

The key to the game is the cards, unless someone has exceptionally good luck early with dice rolls. Cards can cost two to eight energy cubes, with three on the market at any given time, and offer all kinds of benefits – altering game rules, dealing quick damage to opponents, and so on. The right card or two can sway the balance of the game toward you … until someone else plays another card and sways it back. Some cards introduce additional elements to the game, such as “poison” tokens (the victim loses a health point per turn until s/he uses a heart die to remove it) or the Mimic card (which can copy any card any other player has in play, with a cost of one energy cube to change the target card at any time). It adds some complexity and strategy to the game so that it’s not quite so dice-dependent, but still has a random element from the huge deck of cards from which you’ll likely only see a handful during the game.

The game plays two to six, although we’ve found playing with two doesn’t work very well, with a recommended age range from eight years old up, which is in our experience quite fair, and would even be fine for gameplayers under eight if they can handle something like Ticket to Ride. A full game with the three of us lasts 20-25 minutes; I would guess a game of six players would take longer than the 30 minute time suggested on the box, but maybe with that many players you’re just beating the tar out of each other early and reducing the player count. It’s a must for any collection where the typical game group includes a mix of kids and grown-ups, and maybe even without the kids if the grown-ups like to drink and play.

Ada’s Algorithm.

My top 50 free agent rankings went up Friday for Insiders, following by the “deleted scenes” post with capsules on four guys whom I wrote about before their employers picked up their club options. I’ve also got buyers’ guides to catchers and to corner infielders up, with middle infielders due on Tuesday.

Everything seems to be coming up Ada Lovelace lately; largely overlooked in her own time because she was a woman in the early Victorian era and was better known as the one legitimate offspring of the rake Lord Byron, she’s now widely recognized as the creator of the first machine algorithm, the primary ancestor of the modern computer program. The Department of Defense named a programming language (Ada) after her in the early 1980s, and she’s appeared in numerous works of fiction (such as William Gibson’s The Difference Engine) and non-fiction (including a brand-new short work aimed at schoolchildren called Ada Byron Lovelace and the Thinking Machine) over the last 25 years. Since my daughter was working on a short presentation on Lovelace – all the kids were asked to pick a scientist, and she was pissed off because there was only one woman (Marie Curie, of course) on the original list of assignments – I picked up James Essinger’s 2014 biography, Ada’s Algorithm: How Lord Byron’s Daughter Ada Lovelace Launched the Digital Age, which had most of the key details but is padded with a lot of less critical material.

Ada Lovelace’s place in history comes from her friendship with Charles Babbage, who designed (but never built) the first computers, one called the Difference Engine, of which he built one-seventh, and another called the Analytical Engine, which he never built at all due to the prohibitive cost and lack of manufacturing facilities capable of building all of the cogswheels the device required. Babbage was a bit of a mad scientist, prone to emotional outbursts and self-destructive arguments that cost him any shot to gain the funds necessary to build even part of either Engine beyond what he built. He also lacked Ada’s communications skills, and when the Italian mathematican (and later Prime Minister of Italy) Luigi Federico Menabrea wrote a paper describing Babbage’s Analytical Engine, Lovelace translated it into English and supplemented it with her own Notes, the latter of which ran more than twice as long as Menabrea’s original article, and included the algorithm that earned her posthumous fame. She saw the potential of Babbage’s machine that even Babbage did not – that programmers could use it to solve all kinds of mathematical problems beyond mere arithmetic, as long as the programmer could conceive the necessary series of steps for the calculations.

Lovelace died of uterine cancer at 36, and much of the detail of her life is lost both to time and, it’s believed, to her mother’s decision to destroy much of Ada’s correspondence after the latter’s death. Even many of the letters she exchanged with Babbage are gone, leaving any biographer with relatively meager material from which to construct a story of her life. Essinger barely makes it past 200 pages, and even to get to that point he has to fill with material that’s not all that relevant to the reader primarily interested in Ada’s Notes and the algorithm of the book’s title. For example, we don’t need two chapters on Lord Byron, and I was certainly glad I got the book away from my daughter (who found it boring anyway) before she got to the mentions of his incestuous relationship with his half-sister Augusta or the story of how his nanny would take him into her bed, masturbate him, and then later turn around and beat him, often doing both things in the presence of her friends. (That material would seem essential in any biography of Byron himself, though, since it probably explains his later promiscuity and other “immoral” behavior relative to the mores of the era.) Byron was out of Ada’s life for good while she was still an infant, and including such details on his life seems more than just out of place but almost pandering.

Essinger gives us too much of the text of some of her less relevant letters, and inserts his own speculation on things like whether she might have met certain personages of the era, like Charles Darwin, or whether Babbage was in love with Ada, for which there’s no tangible evidence. The first hardcover edition also has numerous typos and minor errors in the text – for example, using “inconceivable” when he meant “conceivable,” which is kind of a weak word anyway – that further added to my impression that I was reading Essinger’s thoughts and opinions rather than a narrative rendering of her life. It seems that we don’t know enough about Ada Lovelace for a full biography, but that doesn’t quite justify surrounding what we do know with speculation or tangential details.

Next up: Speaking of Gibson, I’m reading Mona Lisa Overdrive, the third book in his Sprawl trilogy, which began with the Hugo-winning Neuromancer.

Saturday five, 11/6/15.

My annual ranking of the top 50 free agents this offseason is now up for Insiders, and I held my weekly Klawchat right after they were posted.

I reviewed the app version of Camel Up for Paste this week. Since I wrote that review, there’s been a minor update that cleaned up some of the issues I had with the graphics, notably the info available on screen to you. It’s available here for iOS devices or Android.

And now, the links…

  • Well this just sucks: Kevin Folta, scientist and advocate of genetic engineering of food crops and generally of the safety of food science, is removing himself from public debate. He’s been attacked by the FraudBabe and the dipshits at U.S. “Right to Know,” a group that uses the veneer of consumer rights to mask a blatant science-denial/anti-GMO policy. They’ve been using FOIA requests to try to scuttle legitimate research and discussion. The only solution I see is for more of us to speak up and out about science.
  • Peet’s Coffee has purchased a majority stake in Intelligentsia, their second such move into high-end craft coffee after their purchase of Stumptown. I don’t know what this means for the space; I don’t see a natural synergy here but fear it’s more a move to neutralize competition from a higher-margin competitor
  • We forget that the people pictured in certain memes are actual human beings, such as the skeptical Third World kid, so the BBC has done a story on that picture, finding the aid worker pictured but not the child.
  • Canada’s new government seems about as pro-science as it gets, including the creation of a new post, Minister of Science. Can you imagine any of the current Republican candidates for President doing such a thing? So many of them have staked out one or more denialist positions that this seems out of the question.
  • Some good sense from the Environmental Defense Blog on what the news about China’s coal consumption really means. Tip: Climate change is still real, and the CO2 measurements aren’t affected.
  • Thanksgiving is coming and it’s never too early to start cooking, at least when it comes to preparing stock, as Michael Ruhlman explains. I actually make a brown chicken stock instead, since I always have chicken carcasses in the freezer (bones and necks, and sometimes wings) but rarely have turkey.
  • Smile You Bitch: Being a Woman in 2015” lives up to its provocative title. Rape culture is everywhere, and it’s ingrained in many young men from childhood.
  • Speaking of treating women like navel lint, I give you the NFL’s attempt to hush up Greg Hardy’s domestic violence case.
  • So the demise of Grantland led to a lot of thinkpieces (and a few readers telling me they were canceling their Insider subs, which, to be perfectly honest, just punishes all the wrong people here), but one I liked was from Fortune, talking about its implications for the business of longform journalism. I didn’t read a lot of Grantland’s stuff, but I do believe their mission mattered, and I hope the end of that site is just a blip.
  • From Forbes, a good piece looking at the limited research to date on pediatricians who turn away vaccine-refusing parents. That’s a lot better than the nonsense hit piece on Bryce Harper the same publication ran earlier last week.
  • I’ve often wondered about whether linking to Spotify in my music posts was helping or hurting the artists in question, but Cameron from the band Superhumanoids told me in September that it was the former, and now FiveThirtyEight has a piece supporting this with data.
  • The long-running TV series Mythbusters is ending after its next season, and the NY Times offers an appreciation, crediting the show with rising interest in STEM education and careers.
  • New research on the lizards called tuataras supports the theory that the penis evolved just once for mammals and reptiles and has just, well, hung around.

Klawchat 11/6/15.

My top 50 free agent rankings are up for Insiders.

Klaw: Too late to beg you or cancel it, though I know it must be Klawchat time.

David (Fort Worth, TX): If offered will Gallardo be the 1st to ever accept the Qualifying Offer?
Klaw: I’m thinking Estrada might be the first to accept. If anyone makes him a better offer, I hope they have some prayer beads.

George Evanko: What, in your opinion, is Lucas Giolito’s ETA in the big leagues? And how does he compare in terms of long-range career projections and immediate impact to Harvey, deGrom, and Syndegaard?
Klaw: Mid-2016. I think he could help sooner, but there’s no reason to rush him and there are things he could still work on (e.g., command and feel for the changeup).

Zack: On the 20-80 scale, how would you rate your arrogance? Advance scouts are saying you’re a first ballot HOF.
Klaw: Big talk from a guy who obviously doesn’t know what advance scouts do (or that they barely exist any more).

Marc (Las Vegas): I have a quick book question for you as you read about as often as anyone I am personally aware of. I love reading, but have a tendency to become extremely tired within the first 10-15 pages. Even if the material is right up my alley I just can’t seem to avoid this. Any chance you have any advice on overcoming this and being able to actually enjoy the books I read without being half asleep? Thanks again and your chats are as insightful plus entertaining as anyone out there.
Klaw: No joke: Better lighting. And try getting more sleep in general, of course, but I’ve noticed (as someone who can often fall asleep at the drop of a hat) that lighting makes a huge difference.

Jack: If you were a GM would you ever sign a top 25 free agent? I don’t disagree with your assessments, but your ideal contracts are very far below what they will actually receive. If there’s a good fit for a winning team do you just need to bite the bullet and realize you’re getting ripped off?
Klaw: Those numbers I offer are pretty abstract because the marginal revenue product of a win varies from team to team. If you’re the GM of an 87-win team on paper, adding a six-win player is worth a hell of a lot more to you than that same player is to a GM of a 70-win team. And market size matters too, and revenue elasticity relative to win total. Add to that the winner’s curse – in an open auction, the bidder with the most optimistic (and therefore likely too favorable) projection is the probable winner – and you will find nearly all of my “recommendations” are lower than the actual market values.

Owen (London): Hello Keith- While the Lerners seem to make their fair share of new owner mistakes, shouldn’t we give them credit for batting .500 in minority hires for manager ? That comes with the obvious caveat that it appears Bud Black was offered the job first but when that fell through they didn’t try to lure Davey Johnson back and win a PR exercise. It would be nice if other clubs did more than just go through the motions.
Klaw: I have no complaint with that. But how about giving one of the many qualified, not-famous managerial candidates of color a chance, rather than the guy who has shown no ability to improve or adjust over his last three jobs?

Nick (DC): Yesterday in his introductory press conference, Dusty Baker said: “Supposedly I ruined [Cubs pitcher Mark] Prior. There was no such things as pitch counts, and we had unwritten pitch counts ourselves.” No one called him out on this, but I find it hard to believe that in 2003, pitch counts were not on everyone’s radar as a major concern. Any thoughts on this?
Klaw: There were absolutely pitch counts, and Dusty ignored them. Worse, in my mind, is that game 6 when Prior was visibly laboring in the 7th and Dusty sent him out for the 8th with no one up in the pen. If you couldn’t see that Prior was done, you can’t manage a team.

Brady: Not a question, but I was worried you left ESPN. No chats on there any more and no content for a bit until the organizational rankings. Glad you’re not gone and that I found this chat. Can you post something on ESPN telling people where to find your chats? Thanks!
Klaw: I’ve been chatting here for two months, but since I don’t have any editorial control at ESPN (I don’t even post my own articles), I can’t help you with the latter point.

Dan K.: I know you were high on soler’s upside. Do you still feel the same after watching his defense this past year? Would you trade him if you were the Cubs for pitching? Thanks for your great insight.
Klaw: Still a big believer in the offensive upside. Defense has been less than expected. I would be willing to make him, Baez, Castro available in trades just because I think they have a surplus of bats.

Andrew: Overall thoughts on Reds naming Dick Williams GM ? I know Walt will still be in an “advisory role”. Have you had any interactions or what others are saying about the move ? Thanks !
Klaw: Don’t think there’s any substantial change in direction there, although it does allow them to skip a full GM search next offseason when Jocketty was expected to retire.

James: Hey Keith thanks for the chats, I’ve always loved them. So Dave Cameron predicted the Rangers sign Yoenis Cespedes for a huge deal, but do you really see them adding another 100 million dollar player to their roster? I mean it’s impossible to get rid of Fielder’s deal, and Choo’s in the same boat it seems.
Klaw: I wouldn’t recommend they do so given the presence of Mazara, Brinson, and perhaps Gallo as cheap, productive outfield options.

Tyson: How much is a prospect’s stock affected by how well they do in the AFL?
Klaw: For a significant prospect, not at all. For a fringe guy – maybe someone you’re considering protecting from the rule 5 draft – it can make a difference because scouts are bearing down a little more. Most AFL scouts have lists from their teams of guys to focus on because they might be exposed to the rule 5 or otherwise available in trade.

Anthony: Recommended course of action for the Mets this offseason? I presume it doesn’t include resigning golfing enthusiast Yoenis Cespedes or GLAAD award nominee Daniel Murphy, right?
Klaw: Nope, but spending on one bat wouldn’t be the worst idea. The problem I see is where: You probably want Herrera at 2b, Conforto and Granderson are locked in the corners, finding a CF who’s a real upgrade over a healthy Lagares (grade 80 defense with a smidgen of bat) isn’t easy. Shortstop isn’t easy to upgrade either.

Konk: Didn’t know you were into craft beer. Your stock is rising Mr. Law
Klaw: Zack the Coward thinks I should only drink Arrogant Bastard, though.

Aaron (Texas): KLAW, how did the “bathroom” scare tactic obtain almost 2/3rd of all votes? Also what are your thoughts on turducken?
Klaw: Because there are a lot of bigots out there and equal rights should NEVER be up for a popular vote. Turducken is an abomination, though, no matter which bathroom it uses.

Hermione G: What is the best thing to cook in a slow cooker? And why don’t you post the recipe for that pie you use as your twitter avatar?
Klaw: The pie is the peach pie from Baking Illustrated, and the easiest/best slow cooker meal is carnitas – slice some onions, season a boneless pork butt (shoulder), rest it on the onions in the slow cooker and give it 6-8 hours on low.

Alex: Is this the year someone accepts a QO and if so who do you think is the most likely to do so?
Klaw: Yes, see above.

Ivan: Will Hayward get interest from teams looking for a center fielder
Klaw: Yes, but I would not sign him there. I think you’re giving up a huge advantage from having his glove in RF and I would worry about him staying healthy in CF as well as he’s done so in right.

Derek: Would Melvin Upton’s poor performance the last few years give you any pause in signing Justin Upton at a similar age? One part of the process is looking for comps, and there are plenty of reasons to think Melvin and Justin aren’t good comps. But isn’t it possible that the bloodline provides some insight into aging that we might not get from using statistically similar comps? What I’m saying is not that Justin is going to play like Melvin, but that maybe Melvin’s experience should cause us to think Justin might “get old” faster than some of his similar comps.
Klaw: I believe a huge part of Melvin’s problem was Atlanta’s hitting coaches, who screwed up quite a few fine young players through 2014, including Heyward and Justin too. Melvin actually had a decent season for San Diego, I think his best since before he left Tampa.

Brian: Loved a Confederacy of Dunces. Any similar books you would recommend? Ever read Lucky Jim? Thanks!
Klaw: Loved both. ACoD stands a bit alone in that I’m not sure I’ve ever read anything quite like it, but I think Infinite Jest, Inherent Vice, and some of Philip K. Dick’s works have similar elements.

Kyle: I may have missed this, but what are you reactions on the M’s front office moves? After such a horrible string of player development, I have to admit that I’m excited. Thanks!
Klaw: Progress, certainly. Tom Allison deserved another shot to oversee amateur scouting; his results in Arizona were good then and only look better in hindsight. I know nothing about the guy they hired to oversee player development. I also know they let some good people go in the shuffle this summer and fall.

Chris: Please rank these options for next year at Mets SS: Tejada, Drew, Rollins.
Klaw: Tejada, no, no.

Mike: Joey Bats trade value will never be higher, do you think Shapiro would trade him to restock the farm System based on his comments.
Klaw: I speculated that on TSN 1050 the other day. You’re not re-signing him or Edwin, so do you trade one for prospects, or do you just ride out the window and go for it one more time? I’d choose the latter. I think Shapiro would choose the former.

Tom: When Klentak says the Phils need to strengthen their pitching as step #1, aside from their arms getting promoted here and there would that include some fliers on mid level guys like bringing Happ back? Based on your description on his presumed price/commitment and potential to firm up positive results from last year is that the kind of arm we’re looking at? Does Thompson get called up sooner rather than later to the big league rotation?
Klaw: I think that’s exactly the kind of move they’d make – sign some depth guys without big upside but who won’t hurt financially, maybe adding one more significant starter to a 3-4 year deal who’ll still be able to help when the big club is better. I don’t think Thompson will be rushed in that scenario, especially with Nola and Eickhoff probably locked into rotation spots.

Silv: In anticipating the Dodgers offseason plans as to pitching a couple of weeks ago you neglected to include Ryu’s return at (anticipated) full strength in 2016. Given that, and making the reasonable assumption that Greinke is resigned, do they really need to put added dollars into Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Wood/McCarthy? Lee, Bolsinger, and even potentially DeLeon and Urias are there if anyone falters. This also goes into my question as to how much roster flexibility the Dodgers actually have? Peraza and Seager seem locked at 2b and SS for 2016 (assuming Kendrick doesn’t accept the QO, which he won’t). If they can’t move an OF or find a substantial upgrade at 3b (and Turner is pretty much fine there), do you see them completing any material transactions?
Klaw: I didn’t neglect him; I wouldn’t count on Ryu at all. He had surgery to fix a torn labrum, not TJ, and if he comes back with less velocity he’s not going to be close to his prior level of production. I also don’t think Lee or Urias is likely to contribute anything in 2016, and McCarthy may be back in late April but I wouldn’t pencil him in for 27-28 starts in his first year back. They absolutely need some depth. I could also see them upgrading the outfield and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they traded Puig.

Anonymous: I realize it is early, but what is Dylan Cease’s ceiling and probability? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Number two starter, still a long way off especially due to command.

Dave: Is it frustrating that you basically have to re-write your Top 50 Free Agent intro to answer questions about it right after posting it?
Klaw: No one ever reads the intro, ever.

Derek Harvey: Last week you said you think Josh Hader is a reliever. Is that because he doesn’t have a good change-up? His command? His delivery/mechanics? Something else?
Klaw: Delivery/mechanics. He’s a max effort near-sidearmer.

Tom: Do you have any information on what Bud Black was asking for and what the Nats offered that they could not reach a deal? I cannot remember anything like this happening in the past. Thanks.
Klaw:All secondhand info, but it sounds like the Nats lowballed him and he justifiably balked.

Rob: Did you ever read Grantland? And, if so, what were your favorite aspects of the site?
Klaw:Sometimes, but never their sports stuff – only the pop culture and entertainment material. I loved the concept of the site – hire good writers and let them go long, rather than hewing to the dead model of column-inches as a scarce resource – but if it wasn’t profitable, I can’t blame my employer for shutting it down. (Disclaimer: I know nothing of Grantland’s financials beyond what’s public.) I feel terrible for the writers affected, though. In a tough environment for professional writers, watching a good, seemingly secure job vanish in a matter of months has to be devastating.

Bill: Unfortunately, when you reference a previous chat answer we have to “see below.” Any chance you could fix the direction of the scroll?
Klaw:I can’t – not my software. I post a full text-only transcript after the chat is done.

Kingpin: Did you get to see Patrick Wisdom? Derrick Goold reported that Wisdom had made significant swing changes. If you observed Wisdom, do the changes make a huge difference? Is he still a fringy, at best, prospect?
Klaw:Yes. Not good.

Michael: I’m pro-LGBT rights, but equal rights should never be put up for a vote?! America’s foundation–both good and bad–is built on letting the people decide for themselves.
Klaw:No. We’re a republic, not a direct democracy. Besides, the 14th Amendment kind of cleared this up forever: Everyone gets equal protection under the law.

MJ: Was Juan Uribe considered for the back end of the top 50? What are your thoughts on him as a player and prediction for the deal he’ll sign (and team)?
Klaw:No, because it’s all character and makeup but no production. I’d hire him as a bench coach straight off, though.

Huh?: Bad contract swap: Bourn, Swisher, Maybin for Hanley? Boston takes on more money but for only this year while Braves take the 3 remaining years of Hanley.
Klaw:Maybin’s isn’t a bad contract.

DO: I’ve seen varying reports on Moncada’s timeline — some say not until 2017-2018. Is it possible that he could get to the big club at the end of 2016 (provided he gets to at least AA)?
Klaw:It’s the “provided he gets to at least AA” part that stops me. He’s not that advanced yet, and he might just get to AA and stop there in 2016. He didn’t tear the Sally League apart, and while I still rate him very highly as a prospect I have no tangible reason to forecast a big step forward in productivity (or just in approach) now.

Tito: Klaw, if you had to pick between Gleyber Torres and Franklin Barreto for the first 6 years of their major league careers is one a better choice than the other? Who has more offensive upside?
Klaw:Torres has more overall upside, Barreto has more of a now hit tool.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: What’s your opinion of Anthopolus trading the farm this past year?
Klaw:All good with me. You trade the farm to put your team in the playoffs. You don’t trade the farm to save your job or make a bad club mediocre.

Patrick: Will this Mets generation of pitchers redefine pitching for the next century?
Klaw:This pretty much never works out, right? Atlanta’s big 3 is the last example, and even they were the big 2 for a while when Smoltz got hurt and went to the pen.

Dave: Were you to be the GM of the Red Sox, what is the approach to adding pitching this offseason? One “ace” and fill out the rest with their in house options, or trade/sign 2 front line starters?
Klaw:Sign one, trade all this offensive depth for one.

Hugo Z: Melvin’s OPS in the first two months of his first season with Atlanta was .476. Those coaches must be fast workers.
Klaw:They altered his swing right away, that first spring training.

Jay: Sorry…but I lost track of your chats while moving and traveling for the past six months. I found this on FB…is this the place to look?
Klaw:All chats are here now. Click the “klawchat” tag below this post to get the archive of all of the past ones (I think this is the 9th one since we moved here).

Bob: In games 1 and 2 of the WS, the Mets seemed not to make pitching adjustments against KC. Only two Ks for each starter and the constant contact by Royals’ hitters eventually turned into runs. In game 5, Harvey seemed to make adjustments and pitched a shutout through 8 with 9Ks. Surely, advanced scouting had prepared them for the way that KC hits. Why were they unable to make those adjustments ahead of time? That may have been the key factor in the WS. Do you agree?
Klaw:I don’t agree. If it were that simple…

Tommy: Klaw I saw Harrison Bader hit some this season… He looks like he could be an impact hitter…Am I what you call a bad scout or does he look like a good hitter?
Klaw:I was not a big fan – saw a very stiff body and just adequate bat speed.

Jimmy: Dombrowski is talking about bringing Barnes in as a reliever in 2016. Is that a good move?
Klaw:Yep, two-pitch guy who throws a lot of strikes, should succeed there. But I also think he could have value as a starter for another team.

Allan: Would you skip High Desert with Luis Ortiz and Dillon Tate? Or would experience in that environment benefit them?
Klaw:It might help them the way Mark Watney’s experience helped him.

Fred: Is Miller for Karns an equal opportunistic swap for both parties involved? (No tread on the other guys)
Klaw:Seattle got the best guy (Karns). Rays filled two, possibly three smaller holes on the roster and had the depth to deal Karns. Seems reasonable for both sides, if not very significant.

JR: I realize you don’t watch much TV, but I would highly recommend adding Fargo Season 1 and Season 2 to your list – it’s a really, really good show.
Klaw:No interest. I didn’t love the movie … very well done and smart, but so grim and misanthropic.

AN: This is a few years old so you may have already read it: http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-curse-of-reading-and-forgetting I thought of how much you read in a given year while reading it and wondered whether you experienced forgetting something you’d read pretty recently given how much you read? Is it something that concerns you? Lastly, Span to the Mets make any sense?
Klaw:I keep (mentally) what I enjoy, and forget what I don’t. It’s not a system, but just how my head works. Span to the Mets might make sense on paper but if his medicals give the team any pause about him staying in CF I’d stay away.

George: Another Nats prospect: Victor Robles. What are your thoughts on him?
Klaw:Haven’t seen but have gotten rave reports. I wrote a sentence or two on him in the Future Power Rankings.

Rob: What would the White Sox need to give up to get Profar (assuming he’s possibly available).
Klaw:I don’t believe he’s available at all, but if he were, hypothetically, I’d probably ask for Rodon (and expect to be shot down).

Michael: If the Jays made Osuna a starter, how quickly do you think he could get back to the big leagues?
Klaw:Midyear? I think the year closing would prove to be very valuable experience, but I would also be ultra-cautious in stretching him back out. That’s a great arm that has already blown out once.

Ray: How many “scout wanna be’s” do you see when you are scouting? Are there people that want to be a scout traveling the country or just local games?
Klaw:Not that many. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be a scout, certainly, but yes, I do see folks who are trying to play the role.

Casey: Did you get a chance to take a look at Chad Pinder and/or Renato Nunez? Thoughts?
Klaw:Pinder looked like a 4A guy. Nunez still has a chance to be an everyday player thanks to the pop.

Roy: Was it a mistake for me to pre-order an Anderson Espinoza Jersey last week??
Klaw:Nah, you should be good.

Steve: Enjoyed the Top 50, as I do every year. Quick questions: Assuming no Maeda because we don’t know if he’ll be posted? And do you not think David Freese is worth even a few million dollars on a one-year deal?
Klaw:What little info I have made me think he won’t be posted. There are a lot of guys who didn’t make the 50 but would be worth that 1 year/$3 million or so hypothetical offer I suggested.

Ben: Any thoughts on Peet’s buying up Intelligentsia?
Klaw:It’ll be in the Saturday links post (and they only bought a majority share).

Gus: Keith, this year will be the first that I am deep frying a turkey for Thanksgiving. Have you done so before and do you have any tips/recommendations (aside from defrosting the turkey)?
Klaw:Yeah. Get a good fire extinguisher and don’t do this anywhere near the house. I’ve never done it because I don’t want to burn anything down.

Mark: You have mentioned many times how the Jays’ shortening of Sanchez’s stride has resulted in higher effort and less command. Two questions, 1) why do you think they made the change and 2) does this make it less likely for him to be a viable starter long term?
Klaw:I don’t know if they did it or he did it, and I really don’t know why he hasn’t changed it. You don’t see short-stride starters stay healthy.

smith: Eduardo Rodriguez. Possible #1, 2? something else?
Klaw:It’s ace stuff. I think he will get there in time.

Bob: Who makes a good scout? Former players? Former coaches? Or just people with good observational skills? I doubt that I could do it, but I’m not sure what kind of mind works.
Klaw:I think good observational skills, critical thinking, and an understanding of the vagaries of “the game” are all key. You don’t have to have played, but of course I’ll say that as someone who probably couldn’t turn on a 40 mph fastball.

Mike P.: If Alfaro doesn’t stay at catcher, where could you see him playing? I’ve heard “too athletic for 1B” a couple of times – so I’m just curious where else you could see him playing?
Klaw:I’d put him in right field. He’s still not that great a receiver.

Kevin: A couple years ago you had Montreal Robertson as a sleeper for the Tigers. He is older now (26 I believe) but seems to had a bit of a comeback after a very rough minor league start. Have you seen him at all and think he still has a shot as an effective bullpen arm in the next couple seasons?
Klaw:Saw him, great great stuff, below-average command.

Michael: Do you ever read a book, such as a classic, just because you think you should read it? Plenty of classics imo are boring (see Moby Dick and A Tale of Two Cities), but I still feel somewhat obligated to read them.
Klaw:I’ve read a ton of them – I was going to say “most” but I don’t know what the actual total list would be – and some turned out to be shockingly good (Return of the Native, Middlemarch) while some were abysmal (Moby Dick, An American Tragedy).

Andy: One of the things that I noticed most about Kang in spring training and from reading about him in Korea, he had really good power to right center. Does Park have that or is he all pull power?
Klaw:Looks like more pull power.

Owen: In response to Gus about the turkey; heat your oil to 400 degrees before (slowly) lowering the turkey in – that will keep the skin crisp and non-greasy. I fry one every year.
Klaw:Thanks. BTW, I assume “Gus” was a reference to Delirious. It’s my house…

Joel: It seems almost inevitable that Grienke goes back to the dodgers but don’t the Giants have to be involved if nothing else but to drive up the price the dodgers have to pay?
Klaw:Every team that is near contention and needs a starter should be involved. So, not the Mets, but every other contender.

Tom: I understand the need to be patient but for a big market team with a much improved farm system when do you think it’s advantageous for the Phillies to go for it in free agency? Not trading prospects but make moves that get them closer to an 80 win non embarrassment as they wait for the kids. This offseason or 2017?
Klaw:Be opportunistic now, “go for it” after 2017 probably when more of the kids have arrived and started to establish themselves.

Jack: Cecchini/Herrera middle infield by the All Star Break?
Klaw:I like Cecchini, but if his throwing doesn’t get to be more consistent they’ll hesitate to hand him the shortstop job. He’s definitely feeling for the ball a little bit.

JR: In 2012 when you wrote your “re-draft of the 2002 draft” (one of my favorite annual columns, btw), you wrote something to the effect that Kazmir was done (not criticizing as that was the common view at the time). How impressive has his comeback been these last few seasons? He’s gone from being toast to being on your top free agent rankings and will be getting one more nice payday. Impressive.
Klaw:Absolutely unbelievable – and a great story. BTW, that’s a completely fair criticism. I said he was done, and he wasn’t. I don’t feel bad about that mistake, because how on earth would I have foreseen it … but holy cow, he’s remade himself completely AND seems to have gotten over some chronic arm problems too.

Ray: Alex Verdugo: org guy, avg big leaguer or future all star?
Klaw:Huge beta. If he’s a big leaguer he’s probably an above-average one (or more).

Tom: When teams sign players in their 30s to 7-10 year contracts, is their logic that they are paying a total sum rather than thinking they’re going to get actual value from the players in the last few years of the contract?
Klaw:Yes, but they can’t even think of it as “logic,” right? Those deals don’t work out and often you’re fired or gone before the deal even hits the midpoint. Jack Z won’t be around for years 3-10 of Cano, and DiPoto will have that but won’t have years 6-10 of Pujols

Gus: Would you say that deGrom was the Mets best starter this year, Harvey will probably be the best in 2016 but Thor has the potential to be the best of the 3?
Klaw:I think that’s a reasonable possibility, but if you asked me which guy I think provides the most total value over the next five years I’d take Harvey.

Michael: You are outspoken about violence against women. How do you view a person like Patrick Kane after his accuser refused to go forward with the case and there isn’t too much public evidence?
Klaw:My personal opinion is that the vast majority of rape accusations are true (the false accusation rate isn’t known precisely but is somewhere under 5%), rapes are underprosecuted to begin with and are difficult to prove, so in any specific case I’m more likely to assume guilt than innocence. To put it another way, I think the guy walking around two weeks ago at Epcot in a Patrick Kane jersey (while charges were still possible) was being an asshole..

Andy: So Clippard pitched 32 innings of perfectly fine relief ball for the Mets and 7 innings of poor relief in the playoffs. It’s odd there were people arguing that trading a pitching prospect for that wasn’t overpaying.
Klaw:You said it, not me. 0.2 rWAR, too.

Rob K: Mets added Josh Smoker to the 40 man. Possible he starts the year in the big league pen?
Klaw:Another great story, BTW. I assume it’s a possibility entering spring training, depending on how he pitches.

Sean: No Aoki or Byrd in the FA rankings, were their options declined too late to be ranked, or neither made your top 50?
Klaw:Neither made it. Aoki would have fit, Byrd no.

Ray: Who has the better career: Nick Williams or Brett Phillips?
Klaw:I’ll take Phillips. Big fan of that toolset and makeup.

Bob: If Shapiro trades major league talent to restock the farm, then he is not only repudiated AA’s work, but is punting on 2016. They were so close in 2015. I think I would be upset if I were a Toronto fan.
Klaw:Absolutely you should be. This process was poorly handled from the start.

Chris: Is Mickey Jannis any good? I’m hoping he has some Dickey in him!
Klaw:I didn’t think so – but knuckleballer development is like quantum entanglement. Even people who understand that stuff don’t always know exactly how it works.

Kevin:
What moves would you make to help improve the Padres? Is there hope in the near term?
Klaw:Get a shortstop and a centerfielder, get some balance in the lineup, either play Hedges or send him to AAA every day, see if you can trade Shields for a few (lesser) individual pieces and try to develop some of your own starters again since your home environment is so favorable.

Michael: It was a long time ago, but did you get a sense that any of the corporate suits at Rogers knew anything about baseball? That’s my fear as a Jays fan…
Klaw:No but they left us – really, Paul Godfrey and JP Ricciardi, not me – alone.

Adam: Is Pierce Johnson destined for bullpen duty?
Klaw:IMO yes.

Corey: Gordon worth giving up the 12th pick if you’re Boston? and then including JBJ in a trade for pitching ?
Klaw:I hate giving up draft picks … but if you’re going to give one up, maybe do it for a top-end starter? That seems like a bigger need.

Kevin: Does Michael Fulmer have a #1 starter ceiling, or is that a bit bullish?
Klaw:I think a #2 is more realistic.

Franklin: Do you see S.F.’s refusal to pick up the options on both Aoki and Byrd a sign that they are going to be in the market for a bat like J. Upton or Heyward?
Klaw:I read it as a recognition that neither guy was likely to be worth the cost. Byrd especially seems to me like a guy who’s nearly out of value.

Anthony: I was surprised to see that Soria didn’t make your Top 50 Free Agents list. Is he really not a better player than Rich Hill?
Klaw:Soria was down across the board this year – stuff and results. I gave him a lot of consideration but couldn’t put him in the top 50. I think I was quite clear on what Rich Hill is (or, that we have no freaking idea what he is).

Ian: Have you read Kenji Lopez Alt’s article on spatchcocking a Turkey? Having successfully tried that approach with a chicken, I would imagine its equally as impressive with a turkey. Have you tried anything similar?
Klaw:No but I think I’m going to do this for Thanksgiving now, since I am feeding more people than usual and will want more empty oven time.

Esau: Carson Fulmer, Dillon Tate, Blake Snell, Sean Newcomb. What order would you rank them as future starters?
Klaw:Snell, Newcomb, Tate. Fulmer is a very very likely reliever for me. Yes, I’ve said the same on others who made it as starters … but I still can’t believe that high-effort delivery and lack of command is going to work in the rotation.

Scott: The Padres had Trea Turner………………..ugh!!!!!!
Klaw:Yes, yes they did. That’s all for this week. Our chat has ended, let us go in peace. I’ll see you all next Thursday (most likely).

A Fable.

My ranking of the top 50 free agents for this winter, with scouting/stat notes on each player, is now up for Insiders.

…thinking how war and drink are the two things man is never too poor to buy.

William Faulkner is, I think, a pretty divisive figure in American literature; his lengthy sentences and often obscure descriptive style can make you insane, but he tells vast, emotionally complex stories that capture huge swaths of American history (especially of the South) through the lens of just a handful of characters. The connected novels Absalom, Absalom! and The Sound and the Fury are both on my top 100, as is The Reivers, one of two novels for which Faulkner won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (posthumously, in this case). The other, A Fable, is largely overlooked today even within Faulkner’s oeuvre, despite its grand scale and rich subtexts, which seem ripe for literary analysis, but it may suffer from Faulkner’s obtuse prose and adumbration of character descriptions and plot details. (And his vocabulary; “adumbration” appears at least twice in the text, and Faulkner engages in his own wordsmithing at times, such as “cachinnant,” a Latin word that means something like “laughing immoderately.”)

A Fable is a highly allegorical work that takes the Christ-like Corporal Stephan, referred to for most of the book merely as “the corporal,” and puts him in the trenches in World War I, where he leads a group of 12 other commissioned officers in a mutiny of peace. The novel opens just after the corporal and his disciples have convinced an entire regiment of three thousand French soldiers to refuse to fight, after which their German enemies similarly lay down their arms, causing a spontaneous outbreak of peace in the midst of a war. The book itself covers the various reactions to the corporal’s move, where the French army wants to execute him while also covering up the incident so that the war can continue. Woven into this is a second, loosely related story of an injured American racehorse whose rider and trainer rescue him from either death or work as a captive stud, traveling to small towns where the horse still wins various races even though he’s running on three legs, with the rider becomes a sentry in the war and the trainer adopts a new identity and travels to Europe to find his partner.

The corporal’s Christ allusions are blatant, perhaps too much so for modern analysis. He’s 33 at the time of the mutiny and eventual execution. He’s tempted by his father (“the general”) before the order for his execution, and the night prior to his death he has a last supper with his disciples, including the one who betrays him and the one named Piotr who denies knowing Stephan three times. His mother was Marya, and his fiancée was a prostitute from Marseilles. After his death, his corpse disappears (thanks to a German air-raid). Even his name alludes to Christianity – Saint Stephan, who is mentioned in the New Testamant, is considered the first martyr in the history of the Christian Church.

The novel is virulently anti-war, as you might expect with a Christ figure at its center, but there are elements of the picaresque in the book as well, such as the ragtag group of soldier’s at the book’s conclusion who need to find a corpse to bury in the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Paris. I don’t know if Joseph Heller read A Fable, but there’s a similar vein of lack of respect for military authority and an awareness of the absurdity of war as a solution for most international problems and of the war machine’s desire to keep the combat going as a way to feed itself. Faulkner thought of this novel as his masterpiece, which leads me to believe that he viewed it as a strong pacifist statement that would incorporate satire and religious/moral arguments as a statement against war, with World War II ending around the time he began the novel and the Korean War occurring while he was still writing it.

I found the reading itself to be difficult, in part because his prose is too prolix, perhaps Proustian, but even more because he refuses to use his characters’ names, sometimes failing to name them at all. Keeping the corporal, the runner, the sentry, the general, and so on straight is hard enough without using their names, and it’s worse when there’s another general (Gragnon, who oversaw the mutinous regiment and realizes his career is over when they stop fighting) and a handful of corporals running around the book. There’s one point where Faulkner connects the horse’s groom (Mr. Harry) with the sentry, but I kept forgetting the two were the same character because he never uses the name with the term “the sentry,” who’s also a bit of a loan shark in his new regiment. A surfeit of descriptive prose can be acceptable if it’s actually descriptive, but much of the first third of A Fable felt shrouded in fog to me, including the opening section with the mutiny and the scene where a German general flies through a faked firefight to reach a negotiation to resume combat. So while the plot itself is elegant and simple, with much to ponder and analyze, it’s a book that probably requires a second or third reading to fully grasp the specific details of the story. That’s the best reason I can conceive why it’s so little read or discussed today, even as less ambitious works like As I Lay Dying continue to receive copious praise.

Unrelated: So a smart, professional person of my acquaintance saw I was reading this book the other day and mentioned how she heard Faulkner speak at Montgomery College about “five to seven years ago.” Faulkner died in 1962. I didn’t know what to do with that so I just smiled and nodded.

Next up: James Essinger’s Ada’s Algorithm, a biography of Ada Lovelace, the daughter of Lord Byron and the creator of the world’s first computer algorithm, about a century before we had the first true computer.