→ April 15, 2017
→ By

Stick to baseball, 4/15/17.

I updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors this week; there’s minimal reranking in there, just status notes on players, with guys moving up to replace those already in the majors. (Jesse Winker was promoted after the piece ran.) I wrote a long draft blog post on Hunter Greene, Brian McKay, and other draft prospects I’ve seen so far. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

And now, the links…

  • The one great longread I saw this week was from Backchannel on what’s happened to Google Books, the tech giant’s stated effort to scan every book, ever, to make them all searchable. I’ve used this feature quite a few times, including during the research for Smart Baseball, where I could search for certain terms or keywords in books I couldn’t get my hands on.
  • California passed a tougher law on childhood vaccinations, and, lo and behold, inoculation rates went up about 3 percentage points.
  • The handful of loonies who opposed the law largely claimed “parental choice” as a reason why they should be allowed to deny their children a safe, effective treatment that can prevent debilitating and sometimes fatal diseases. It’s a terrible argument, because those “choices” affect everyone, not just your children. (Also, that choice isn’t for you – it’s for your child, who can’t choose for him/herself, and depends on you to take care of his/her medical needs.)
  • If you’ve seen a vaccine denier point to measles outbreaks in China as evidence the MMR vaccine doesn’t work, well, the outbreaks occurred among unvaccinated groups. Facts may not carry the day with deniers, but it is on the rational among us to make sure the truth is still out there for people who might be on the fence.
  • A Utah judge praised a convicted sexual abuser during sentencing, with at least one of the victims present. This kind of behavior will only discourage victims from coming forward in the future. Utah judges may be removed from the bench via a judicial conduct commission censure or a 2/3 vote of the legislature, so if you live in that state, get on the phone.
  • I think my new least favorite food buzzword is “clean.” Panera, which is a decent chain choice if you want something vegetarian while traveling, claims its food is 100% “clean,” which means absolutely nothing unless previously they were rolling their bread dough out on the floor. It’s also a buzzword for people who eat weird, ultra-restricted diets that probably don’t provide enough nutrition because so-called “clean eaters” often skip dairy or wheat, foods that are often demonized without scientific basis. I’ll keep eatin’ dirty, thanks.
  • Dr. David Dao, the passenger beaten and dragged off a United flight last week, has filed court papers in preparation for a lawsuit and compared his treatment to what he experienced while fighting in the Vietnam War. Tim Wu of the New Yorker wrote about why he stopped flying United after it merged with Continental. Deadspin’s Albert Burneko discussed the absurdity of backing the corporation in such cases.
  • An American doctor has been charged with mutilating the genitalia of two girls under the age of 10, a barbaric practice common in eastern African countries and in Indonesia known as female genital mutilation.
  • New Mexico has banned “lunch shaming,” the cruel practice of embarrassing children whose parents have unpaid school meal debts.
  • I listened to the entire seven episodes of the podcast S-Town, and I’m not sure if I think the time was well spent. Did I really get anything out of it? Was John B. McLemore, who was most likely a manic depressive on top of the later medical issues revealed in the final episode, someone worthy of a seven-hour biography? The Atlantic also asks about the ethics of revealing so much of his life after his death, and the details of other characters in the play. The Guardian went to Woodstock, Alabama, to interview the locals about their sudden bit of fame, and most didn’t seem to mind the portrayals.
  • I was apparently behind the times, as I was unfamiliar with the Twitter replies-to-retweets ratio until this past week.
  • Paul Krugman wrote that publicity stunts aren’t policy and then Trump ordered (or simply handwaved along) the dropping of the ‘mother of all bombs’ on Afghanistan. It’s working, though: Compare media coverage of the Russian connection, or of GOP rollbacks of Obama policies, to coverage of the Syria and Afghanistan bombings and now our taunting of North Korea. (For what it’s worth, the North Korean government has always been the one that worried me, because it’s essentially sociopathy in government form, and they’re well-funded enough to do mass damage to someone, South Korea or Japan or us. But I would prefer to see a long-term policy solution to the issue, not threatening to Pyongyang to wag the dog.)
  • There can be no beatings and imprisoning of gays in Chechnya because there are no gays in Chechnya, say Chechnyan authorities. This Guardian report says otherwise.
  • I enjoyed this interview with Dana Cree, pastry chef for Chicago’s Publican restaurant group and author of the new cookbook Hello, My Name Is Ice Cream: The Art and Science of the Scoop. Within the Q&A she discusses which ingredients serve as stabilizers to minimize the size of ice crystals in ice cream, providing a smoother texture. I personally do not like the eggless ice cream known as Philadelphia-style, which is just dairy, sugar, and flavors, for that very reason. I prefer frozen custard, sometimes called New York ice cream, which includes egg yolks – often a lot – and less butterfat, because the yolks contain lecithin, which emulsifies the fat and the water in the base and thus prevents large crystals from forming. Lecithin can break down at subzero temperatures, however, so vegetable gums may be better if you’re going super-cold, if you can’t eat eggs, or if you don’t want that slight eggnog note in a delicate flavor like vanilla bean.
  • The first part of this NPR Fresh Air interview with author David Owen, about the Colorado River, is interesting and particularly relevant to me, because one of the main reasons I did not want to remain a long-term resident of Arizona was that the state has no strategy for dealing with the coming water crisis in the region. The Colorado River is overtaxed, badly, and Arizona’s idea of coping is storing a few years of water in underground reserves. He has a new book out on the topic, Where the Water Goes, and discusses some of it in the Q&A. Then he talks about golfing with Donald Trump and I moved on with my life.
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→ April 14, 2017
→ By

Tough Guys Don’t Dance.

I’ve had mixed results with Norman Mailer’s work in the past – I loved The Executioner’s Song, which won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction even though it’s pretty clearly a work of non-fiction, but bailed on The Naked and the Dead after just a handful of pages because of its turgid prose and Dickensian attention to detail. When I read that he’d written a noir-ish detective novel, though, I figured the genre would at least make up for any obstacles I found in his writing, and contemporary reviews of the book, Tough Guys Don’t Dance, were so positive that I gave it a shot. It’s somewhere in the middle for me, overdone as a work of genre fiction, but also, I think, exploring a theme that’s basically absent from the first fifty years or so of hard-boiled detective stories.

Tim Madden is a writer who never seems to write anything, and whose wife has walked out on him, apparently for good this time. Their relationship is built on nothing much at all, but he’s broken up about it, and goes on a bender one night after meeting a couple from California in a bar in his adopted home of Provincetown (a small town at the tip of Cape Cod that, then and now, is known as a gay haven, which turns out to matter substantially in the story). He wakes up the next morning to find he has a tattoo with the name of a woman he doesn’t know, blood all over the inside of his car, and, eventually, a woman’s head in the place where he stashes his marijuana. He’s then left to try to figure out what happened – including who the woman was and whether he killed her – while various people from his past and present show up, including the woman he once dumped for his wife after they went to a swingers’ party, and complicate his efforts to solve the crime.

The novel’s style seems a clear callback to the hard-boiled novels of which I am so fond, although Mailer’s prose is more involved than the clipped tones of Dashiell Hammett or the sparse artistry of Raymond Chandler. It’s almost too well-written for the genre, in that you can tell this is a very good writer trying his hand at an unfamiliar type of writing. Nearly all of the side characters are straight out of central casting – dimwitted hoods, ex-boxers, corrupt cops – but Tim himself is unique, a writer rather than a detective, a child of privilege who got kicked out of Exeter, a former drug dealer who did a stint in prison where he met a former Exeter classmate of his who’ll also figure in the present mystery.

I’m completely interpreting here, but I think Mailer was trying to explore questions of masculinity, especially as it related to homosexuality, something that’s even telegraphed in the novel’s title, which comes from an anecdote within the book where a mobster utters that line, as if dancing would erode his toughness. (It also called to mind the Belle & Sebastian line, “We all know you’re soft/cause we’ve all seen you dancing.”) Most of the male characters in the novel are grappling with maintaining some sort of facade of manliness in the face of emotions that, I think especially in the 1970s and early 1980s, would have marked them as effeminate, if not as “gay” in the pejorative sense of the term. There’s a lot of just plain ol’ fashioned heterosexual depravity in this book, and of course given the time of its writing (published in 1984), there’s quite a bit of homophobic language, including a reference to “Kaposi’s plague,” which refers to a rare cancer that became common among gay men at the time and turned out to be associated with AIDS. But so much of that content read to me like men trying to prove they’re men – I’m not gay, see how I say awful things about gay men, they’re all (bundles of sticks), I’d like to kill them all, etc. The straight men doth protest too much.

And while I doubt “toxic masculinity” was even a term back in the early 1980s – as far as I can tell, it was coined well after the book was written – there’s a huge element of that within the book and behind the crime itself. Without spoiling the whodunit, I’ll say that men trying to either prove their masculinity or suppress characteristics that might be labeled as feminine or gay loom very large within the story, enough that when I finished the book, I found that theme was much more on my mind than the plot itself, which was a little too convoluted, with the murders kind of too pointless for this style of novel. That makes it a cerebral detective story, but maybe not as compelling of a mystery as the classics of the genre are.

Next up: Robert Charles Wilson’s Hugo Award-winning novel Spin.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: , , ,
→ April 13, 2017
→ By

Klawchat 4/13/17.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. The book now has two positive reviews out, one from Kirkus Reviews and one from Publishers Weekly.

Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

My updated ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors is up for Insiders; you’ll see references to it in the chat below.

Keith Law: When your world is full of strange arrangements … Klawchat.

Aaron: This is the obvious small sample size chat. I’m asking this because his hot start has me intrigued, but did you hear anything about Alex Jackson from Braves spring training? What are your thoughts on his bat?
Keith Law: I saw him in Orlando. He looked awful. Still leading with that elbow, cutting up through the ball, and way bigger than he was in HS.

RSO: Is James Kaprelian’s career over after TJ surgery?
Keith Law: Dramatic much?

Tim: Is MItch White a top 25 prospect come the end of the year? Same question with Buehler
Keith Law: Hard to say that now, but I would say unlikely. White might be more likely to shoot up than Buehler, since he’s a lot more physical than Buehler is.

Important Question: Thoughts on Giolito? Very nervous…
Keith Law: Nervous why? because he had a mediocre first outing? That doesn’t make sense – one outing or a few games of at bats shouldn’t sway your opinion up or down of anyone.

Jim : Hi Keith, What is the ceiling for Beau Burrows??? Can he be a #2 or higher??
Keith Law: Don’t think he has that kind of ceiling. Hasn’t shown enough propensity to miss bats.

Johnny Bench: Who can the Cubs trade to get a cost control pitcher?
Keith Law: If they told teams they’d include Eloy and Happ in a deal, they could probably get anyone on the market.

Jack: you didn’t mention seranthony dominguez in your phillies review, what is your opinion on him?
Keith Law: He was in my Phillies org report.

Josiah : US just dropped the MOAB… escalating to the biggest-non-nuclear weapon we have this early in a presidency doesn’t make me feel very safe. What do you think?
Keith Law: I agree. Gotta wag that dog, though.

Danny: Should Albert Abreu have started in Tampa? His throwing 100 doesn’t solve the questions about him starting right i.e. breaking pitches and repeating delivery?
Keith Law: Right, getting hyped already (it’s as if folks decided, well, Kap is hurt, we need to replace him with another Yankee arm in the hype machine), has a great arm, still has a lot of developmental milestones to hit. I imagine he’ll spend much or most of the year in Tampa though.

Julian: Mitchell White, RHP for the Dodgers, is picking up some nice reports. Is his upside as high as the top Dodgers pitching prospects sans Urias? Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote about him in March and put him on the top 50 I posted earlier this week.

Drake: Hey Keith. What about Eduardo Rodriguez intrigues you so much? It seems like he has a really hard time staying consistent throughout the game.
Keith Law: Above avg fastball, plus changeup, will show an average slider, has shown control in the past. I think he gets beat too often on pitch selection – too many fastballs, especially up, in changeup counts. Also needs to throw the slider more to get more consistent with it.

John: What from the Reds hot small-sample-size start can we take as real? Those bullpen arms look solid, though a couple should return to starting.
Keith Law: Don’t take anything from the first week as real.

Cory: You are probably tired of this question (sorry if that is the case) but I’m hoping the Twins take Hunter Greene, but wouldn’t be sad about Brendan McKay. Who would you choose if you were in charge of their draft?
Keith Law: Greene. Chance for a generational talent there. McKay is very solid, not likely they ever regret taking him, but Greene has the raw elements to develop into a superstar and you rarely get a crack at guys like that.

Julian: Too early to be alarmed by Bellinger’s K%?
Keith Law: Too early for everything. It’s April 13th.

Daniel: Lets get the obvious out of the way… Mets fans are already clamoring for Amed Rosario (due in large part to Reyes awful start). When do you project Rosario to be ready to help the Mets? When would you promote him?
Keith Law: Midyear? I worry that Vegas isn’t going to help Rosario develop at the plate at all, because it’s a good hitting environment where mistakes aren’t necessarily punished (and sometimes get rewarded). He may end up needing a promotion to continue to develop as a hitter, especially in recognizing breaking stuff and laying off those pitches out of the zone.

Jay: Had the dark chocolate gelato at Frost last night affogato. It was great, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Keith Law: I was bummed I only got there once on our Arizona trip this year.

Davey Johnson: How does the rest of Eugenio Suarez’ career shake out? Seems to be a lot of tools there.
Keith Law: When he was still with Detroit I thought he had the upside of a regular at short. That’s probably still his maximum potential.

Jim: How come only liberals can express their views on ESPN?
Keith Law: Aw, I’m sorry, snowflake. Did you need a safe space?

JV : Any word on aiken’s velo in his first start?
Keith Law: I know he was only in the upper 80s in March.

Tim L: What are your thoughts on O’s Cedric Mullins? Great spring and buck loves him.
Keith Law: I saw him when we covered their game at home vs Boston – he was in my O’s top 20, pretty athletic, quick-twitch kid with power and some speed too. I know Buck loves him (he told us pregame, compared him to a pretty great historical player) but he wasn’t young for the Sally League last year and needed to make a big jump. Double-A is perfect. I don’t think he’ll hit .500 all year though.

Tyrone: What do you make of Amir Garrett’s good start to the season? Does his athleticism make up for lack of overpowering stuff?
Keith Law: I think it’s two starts, I think you’re underselling the stuff, but I think he’s a hell of an athlete who will continue to improve even after he’s been in the majors a year or two.

Sean: First, thank you for all of the work. I can’t wait to read your book. Second, I am assuming you have seen Buxton this year. He looks awful at the plate. How do the Twins and Buxton fix this?
Keith Law: I said on BBTN that I think it’s become mental. He’s getting killed low and away, and I’m sure the Twins have told him to try to lay off those pitches, but apparently the fear of striking out has overtaken him. If he can’t make that adjustment in the majors, he’ll have to go back to triple-A to clear his head and work very specifically on that problem. A ton of his swings and misses were in that part of the zone, on all pitch types.5

Logan: Have you had a chance to see or hear anything about Austin Beck’s rise on the draft boards?
Keith Law: I saw him and included him in my last draft blog post. I have heard him in the top 5 (Padres, Rays) but I don’t think he’s that kind of prospect. Too much effort in his game.

Phil: Keith, I’ve read some good things about Columbia RHP Colin Holderman. He had a great first outing. Any thoughts on him? Is he potentially the next “Warthen surprise”?
Keith Law: I think he had a great first outing. That’s it. He’s not a better prospect than he was a week ago, when he was a fringe guy starting a little lower than he should given his age.

Charlie: Look forward to reading Smart Baseball. Exit Velo getting a lot of recognition on broadcasts this season. If you were to rank its importance as against other hitting metrics, where does it fit?
Keith Law: It’s a different kind of metric – its use is entirely predictive. It doesn’t tell us whether the ball put in play was successful at all. But in combination with other batted-ball data it might give us insight on what a hitter is likely to do, or merely capable of doing, going forward.

Important Question: RE: Giolito. Mainly, his velo has just totally fallen. That’s why we should be a bit nervous.
Keith Law: He was throwing two-seamers at 90-91 his first start. That’s about right for him. So, fake news, maybe?

Drew: Is Hunter Greene a generational talent or a good player who throws really hard.
Keith Law: He’s a lot more than a guy who “throws really hard.”

Matt : What do you think of Matt Adams in left field and MIKE Matheny in general…
Keith Law: Matt Adams shouldn’t be allowed off the infield dirt, for the safety of himself and everyone around him.

Jay: Jake Junis made his debut last night for KC. Is his upside as a starter, or do you see his future in the pen?
Keith Law: If he’s a starter it’s near replacement level.

Jimmy: Is Reynaldo Lopez still a reliever for you or has his SSS this year (including spring training) given him more of a chance to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s a small sample, but he’s walked nearly a man an inning so far. How would that change my opinion?

Dave H: Thoughts on the Mariners moving Joe Decarlo to catcher?
Keith Law: Irrelevant because he can’t hit. He had a slow bat the day he was drafted.

Scott: Thoughts on Nicky Delmonico? Reports of scouts raving about his swing this spring. Anything there?
Keith Law: He’s always had a good-looking swing; he has had trouble staying healthy, more than anything else.

Jay: Does Sandy Alcantara make jump to StL this summer?
Keith Law: Possible but I think very aggressive.

Valentine Michael Smith: It looks like Joey Gallo will be the Rangers’ third baseman for at least the next month or so due to Beltre’s calf injury. Gallo is slashing .192/.323/.500 so far — is that around the range you think would be reasonable to expect him to put up going forward while Beltre is gone? And if he does, when Beltre returns, do you send him back to AAA, put him in LF, or put him at 1B?
Keith Law: I think he can hit more than that, of course. If he were hitting .240/.323/.500, would anyone blink? Is it just that the very first digit is a 1 that makes it bother us? It bothers me, even though I know all those walks and homers give him a lot of value.

Another Tim: Bryan Price has been mixing in a lot of multi-inning relief appearances, which has me excited. For a guy like Raisel Iglesias, what is the max number of innings he can throw with this usage pattern?
Keith Law: I think it depends on days off between outings. Iglesias is supposed to be unable to handle a starter’s workload, and if that’s true, then two innings one day should mean at least a full day of rest before he pitches again. I don’t think 100 innings is out of the question for a pitcher used in a judicious fashion that gives him days off.

Scott: Have you read the Handmaid’s Tale? Are you interested in the new TV series?
Keith Law: Just read it a year ago. It’s superb. Not sure I can handle watching it – it’s bad enough watching Texas and Arkansas and Iowa strip away women’s rights in reality.

OklahomaBrave: *I know it’s early but Demeritte cut his k% in the AFL and the trend seems to be contuing. Fair to be cautiously optimistic?
Keith Law: No, it’s really not. 5 K in 26 PA is absolutely within the range of normal variation for a guy who might have a ‘true’ K rate of 30%. You need a much larger sample to draw any conclusions at all that he’s different from last year (33% K rate).

Chris: Hi Keith, I’m the one who tweeted at you about Kap. Isn’t this pretty much the single worst thing that could happen wrt the Yanks’ youth movement? They have far fewer top end pitching prospects than positon players, and he seemed like the only one who might end up a true #1. Plus generally buying pitching is much more pricey than position players.
Keith Law: I’m not happy to see it, but guys do come back from TJ just fine. Buehler came back with velocity he had never shown before, since it turned out he’d been pitching hurt for some time. if Kap is one of the 10% or so who just don’t recover, that’s awful for everyone, but I still think he’s going to end up a very good big league starter.

Noah: Do you think any college pitchers in this draft have ace potential?
Keith Law: Probably not. Seeing Faedo tonight and Wright tomorrow here in Nashville, but neither has had a great spring so far.

Joe: What surprised you most when it came to writing the book? What was hardest?
Keith Law: I wasn’t great at tying chapters or sections together. I write such short pieces normally – 2000 words is very long for me at ESPN, and on the dish I doubt I’ve passed 1500 on anything that wasn’t a list or ranking – that it felt unnatural for me to write 5000 word chapters and then have to fit them into the larger work in ways that kept it coherent.

Zach: Where do you rank Pavin Smith in this year’s draft? Do you buy that the Twins may be considering him at #1?
Keith Law: I do not buy that and do not think he’s a top 20 talent in the draft. He’s a very good hitter and he’s a college 1b, among the worst buckets in the history of the draft to take in the first round.

Jason: Hey Keith- as a veteran who is really familiar with ordinance on the business end- the MOAB is basically useless in that environment – big boom doesn’t cut through MOUNTAINS. This clown is just offensive
Keith Law: It did get a lot of headlines, though. Walking through the airport all I saw was Mr. Holocaust Center on every TV with a chyron saying it was the biggest non-nuke bomb we’ve ever dropped. (Yay, America?)

Nick: Thoughts on Judges approach so far this year? I know SSS but he seems to be making more contact.
Keith Law: Again, SSS. However, I’ve said before that Judge’s history is that he struggles to control the entire width of the zone each time he’s promoted, and each time he’s made adjustments after a few months of at bats, learning to control both the outer third and the inner edge. The fact that he’s done it before tells me he can do this going forward, although we can’t say that he’s done it now.

Hinkie: What is most likely: Bryce Harper hits the open market, Manny Machado hits the open market, both hit the open market, or neither hit the open market ???
Keith Law: I think both.

Delroy Lindo: Rank which upcoming albums you are most excited about: Phoenix, LCD Soundsystem & Haim
Keith Law: Phoenix yes, LCDS maybe, Haim heck no.

Sean : Is Mark Vientos a first round draft pick?
Keith Law: Probably yes. Didn’t see him while I was in FL because he went to the NHSI.

addoeh: Is the gap between what advanced statistics fans/media uses to evaluate value and what teams use more incremental or revolutionary? How soon will these stats start to filter down to public use?
Keith Law: It exists now and is getting wider over time.

Joe: What’s worse? Reyes batting leadoff? Conforto playing CF? Terry Collins still writing the lineup?
Keith Law: Conforto out of the lineup seemingly every time he has a big day. Collins should be fired if he won’t play Conforto every day. This has descended into cheap farce.

addoeh: Will Smart Baseball introduce us to any new stats?
Keith Law: If you’re here, probably not. That was very clearly outside of the goals we all set out for the book.

Kenny G: Saw Walker Buehler on Monday. Multiple Front Office members present, and plenty of comments he’ll be up with Dodgers by end of this season (not by Front Office personnel). Would you agree with those comments?
Keith Law: He’s going to be on an innings cap of some sort, which will almost certainly preclude a callup.

Jon: If Gravmens Velocity stays up around 96 or 97 how does that change his outlook? Thanks
Keith Law: That’s not where Statcast had him sitting, but to answer the general question, yes, he’s got a much higher upside than he did at least year’s velo, when he was basically a fifth starter type. Averaging like 94.5 with that kind of sink would probably make him an above-average starter.

Dallas: You mentioned Adell as a pitcher; are teams looking that way or is he still being drafted as a hitter
Keith Law: I think he prefers to hit, which may dictate who drafts him and how much money he gets.

Brian: Without rushing to judgment, Rhys Hoskins seems to be hitting at yet another level. At what point does his production overwhelm whatever tools seem to be lacking to scouts? Or is he someone who people think the flaws won’t show up until major league pitchers exploit them?
Keith Law: I think there’s a flawed assumption here; I’ve certainly been favorable toward Hoskins the last two years. He’s a first baseman with questionable power, which is a real issue at that specific position because the threshold to be a regular at the plate is so high.

Chris (Chicago): How long do you think you’d last as a vegetarian?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’d have any problem with this as long as I could manage my blood sugar properly.

Dallas: Have you heard any draft movement with Sam Carlson? I saw he was 92-96 topping at 97 (rumor of a rogue 99 was probably just that, rumor; or bad gun). Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s only made one start so far, so I don’t know if that’s where he’s going to pitch all year. He’s had first-round potential since the summer; if he really does sit 92-96 all spring (by “all spring” I mean the six or seven starts he’ll make before the draft) then he’d probably be a top 20 pick.

Ridley Kemp: It doesn’t look like my local bookstore in Austin is going to bring you to town. That being the case, what way of purchasing your book does you the most good? Is amazon better because it benefits your sales ranking, or is there another avenue that is better for you?
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. All I ask is that you buy it however you like to buy books. Physical copy or ebook, doesn’t matter. I want you to buy it, read it, and enjoy it. And no, no bookstore in Austin reached out to Harper Collins that I know of.

Chris: Any chance Adam Haseley goes top 10 or maybe 11 to chi sox? Seems like he has Benentendi helium..
Keith Law: He’s going top 20, I feel pretty confident of that. I don’t think he’s Benintendi, not that kind of pop, but one of the best pure hitters in the class, a CF, and has some power at least.

Harry: Keith, just bought the book and I can’t wait for it to arrive. Would like to go to a book signing in San Francisco. Just wondering how many hours a day do you usually sleep. Father, foodie, blogger, traveling for work. You can’t sleep that much. I’m guessing 5 hours a day max.
Keith Law: Oh no, seven hours or I’m a mess, eight when I can.

Eric: Any word on whom the Braves might target at #5?
Keith Law: Guys they’re not getting. Not sure what the realistic plan will be.

Pat D: I saw you’re coming to Philly for a book-related event on May 8. Any ideas if you might get a little further north to Lehigh Valley at all this year?
Keith Law: I don’t have any minor league games scheduled yet because of draft work and the book. I’ll probably pick that up more in May.

Nick: Sounds like the Yankees were pushing for Kap to get TJS last year but he opted for rehab. Now same thing happens a year later.
Keith Law: Some guys do rehab it successfully though, as long as it’s not a full tear. Besides, it’s his elbow, right? Easy to say “go get this major operation” when it’s not your skin getting cut open.

Logan: Thanks for the answer regarding Beck! Had seem some mention the Braves, but doesn’t seem like a great fit in my humble opinion.
Keith Law: I would agree; I think they can do better at 5. Heck, Mackenzie Gore is a better prospect in the same state.

Nick: I know you’re not a big believer in Jordan Montgomery but he got a lot of swings and misses yesterday and look like a solid major league starter with room to get even better.
Keith Law: TL;DR. I think you’re saying a pitcher had a decent start.

Neil: I don’t think it is too early to think Matt Cain isn’t good anymore. Would the Giants be better off letting Beede have a go at the 5th spot in the rotation?
Keith Law: Yes, they would. Cain has stunk for two-plus years now.

James: Still out on Mike Soroka as an elite prospect?
Keith Law: This is a stupid question. I have never said anything of the sort.

Jason: Should the boycott of major sporting events apply to states that don’t have laws against sexual-orientation discrimination (or partial laws, like just for state employment), or only ones that pass laws forbidding their cities and counties from passing ordinances?
Keith Law: Isn’t the latter an active act of discrimination (or, let’s call it what it is, creeping theocracy), while the former is, at worst, a passive one?

Rick: Keith, any examples of guys you were “most” wrong about? Both better than you anticipated and worse?
Keith Law: I do a column on that every September.

Scott: Did you see Pedro comparing Jharel Cotton to himself mechanically? How much upside does he realistically have?
Keith Law: I heard about it, and I think the only person who can compare a pitcher to Pedro is Pedro. Cotton’s probably an average big-league starter in the end.

Greg: Keith, I like your stuff a lot but weren’t you at least a little hesitant to title a book Smart Baseball as if you claim to know what is the absolute smart way to view baseball? That didn’t give you even the slightest hesitation?
Keith Law: One, it refers to a running gag on Twitter. Two, “as if you claim” is your problem here. I didn’t claim what you said. I didn’t come close to it. You just made some shit up.

Tom: Keith, maybe this is too personal but… do you have any interest in returning to work for an MLB team? What would sway you to accept a job? Is there a specific role ie scouting director that would most appeal to you? Rumor has it you turned down a job with an AL West team a few years back. Do teams often contact you?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine doing so at this point in my life. Yes, I turned that job down, and it was almost entirely for family reasons. (Another reason: I didn’t want to raise a daughter in Texas.) I’m with my daughter a lot more in this job than I would ever be in a front office or full-time scouting job. That’s the most important criterion to me.

Evan: What’s the biggest surprise to you from this season so far?
Keith Law: Absolutely nothing.

mike sixel: It’s April. He’s 23. He only has 500ish ABs in the majors, but when should we worry about Buxton if he isn’t hitting well?
Keith Law: I think you can worry about him now, given that he struck out a ton last year before September too. And if he starts to make more contact right now, I’d want to see him do it for a few weeks or months before thinking he’s turned the corner.

Evan: What’s your opinion on what happened on the United flight? Should the guy sue? And if you think he should, how much do you think he will get?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has any case against the airline, does he? The contract of carriage says they can deny you a seat you paid for.

Brian: Why are so many of the top draft prospects out of college not highly drafted out of high school? I would think most guys take something similar to the Gerritt Cole path in which they are very highly regarded out of high school and 3 years later maintain that same outlook. Are most of the top college prospects guys who had tremendous development post high school? Were “missed” out of high school? Were such strong college commitments that they weren’t worth a high pick? Something else?
Keith Law: Right – guys who went to college and got stronger, or grew, or threw harder, or proved they could hit better pitching after playing high school ball against bad competition. Some were hurt in HS. Lot of logical reasons.

( * >* ): Is too early to ask if the Phillies are leaning towards a prep player or college player at 1-8 ?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’ll lean either way. I think they’ll take BPA.

Bob: Keith, how split are teams on B. McKay in regards to pitching prospect or hitting prospect ? 50-50 or more like 70-30 on the pitching side ?? I ask as a Reds fan and rumblings they prefer him as a hitter. Thanks !
Keith Law: I think 60/40 is about right. I would take him as a LHP, though.

Chuck: My wife’s aunt who is anti-gmo -anti-vaccine is coming to Easter dinner. And she is a cardinals fan coming into our Cubs loving house. Do the rules of normal civilization apply here. Thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: Go at her full bore. Bring the science.

Munchkin: What do you think about PRP Injections and stem cell therapy? Effectiveness and potential pitfalls
Keith Law: I’m interested but I haven’t seen any research (which may exist, I just haven’t seen it) on their efficacy.

BD: You are an adovocate of HS pitchers declaring for the draft (injury risk, coach overuse, etc). Ignoring family financial situation, what round/slot figure do you start to think “OK, maybe go to Juco for a year and try and increase the offer?”
Keith Law: After day one, which is two rounds, you get a chance to negotiate overnight with interested teams to take you high on day two and overpay you. But whether the number is $500K or $1 million is going to depend a lot on whether that difference is life-altering for your family.

Ricky: If/When Otani comes over, is he viewed as a two way player?
Keith Law: Nope. This is going to be the most-asked question of 2017, I think. NPB pitching is not close to MLB pitching as a whole.

Josh L: What would you say Corey Ray’s ETA is? Summer 2018?
Keith Law: Probably, since he’s not going to play a full season this year as he comes back from knee surgery.

Touki: Juan Soto getting some notice this week. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Was on my “just missed” column in January. Essentially prospect #101, although I don’t rank beyond 100.

Jake: As a veteran myself, the bomb is exactly what was needed. If that veteran from earlier looked at a map. Or even knew where Nangarhar was, he would know that a bomb is needed for the extensive tunnel systems they have underground.
Keith Law: I truly know nothing about the subject. I just 1) don’t particularly like how willing we are to drop bombs on other countries and 2) don’t like what appears to be a cavalier attitude on the subject by our current president, after Pres. Obama was himself too enthusiastic about using drone strikes.

CT: There was an article today stating that the Astros renewing Correa for the minimum may be hurting their chances to sign him to a long term deal. Do you think there’s validity to this or was he headed for the open market regardless? In general, do you feel teams should reward players by paying them higher than the minimum when they don’t have to?
Keith Law: No, that’s bullshit, whoever said that doesn’t understand how the system works.

Matt C. (Fort Collins): So many writers invoke SSS all the time, then ignore it regularly (you are an exception). Always makes me laugh.
Keith Law: This is the first question I’ve ever seen from you, but it’s brilliant, so I think you’re awesome.

Metro: As a Mets fan I think it’s pretty cool (rare) to find a good local talent. Any thoughts on Queens native Quentin Holmes? Around where do you project him being drafted?
Keith Law: Probably goes in the 25-50 range. Toolsy, big question around the hit tool and ability to make contact.

Nick: Can a starter like Graveman who throws one pitch 95% of time, as he’s doing with his sinker this year, succeed as a starter?
Keith Law: Bartolo Colon used to throw about 95% fastballs when he was younger.

Brian: Just to clarify—you’ve been positive towards Hoskins. But he doesn’t get much buzz more broadly, and he’s never sniffed top 100 lists. I understand the 1B/power thing, but you have to forgive us Phillies fans for seeing a guy who hits for average and gets on base at every level and getting excited. We’re not used to people who can post an OBP over .315.
Keith Law: Gotcha. I thought you were using his absence from my top 100 as a proxy for lack of scouting support or interest in him. I think teams see what he’s doing and value him – more than they do Cozens, certainly – but think of all the college 1b we’ve seen fizzle out in the high minors or majors. It’s a really high bar to clear. I think that’s why the world, myself included, was so skeptical of Goldschmidt as he came up – he raked where others had raked before, and he was of a class (although he was drafted lower) that has a huge bust rate.

Will in Vero: Cody Bellinger … is he a good enough outfield defender to earn regular ABs there if Gonzalez stays healthy at 1B?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, but I don’t know if the Dodgers want to do that or just keep him at 1b.

josh: ASU baseball is a mess rught now with fumors that the players cannot stand T. Smith. How could he possibly have screwed this job up?
Keith Law: Hadn’t heard any of that. You’d think it would be an ideal job – recruiting couldn’t be easier. “Look at our weather! Our campus! Our facilities!”

Greg: Where does Royce Lewis go? Is he a top 3 pick, or could he fall to 5?
Keith Law: No idea. Draft is two months away and he’s only been playing for four weeks.

Nick: At the time I seem to recall you liked the Jake Johansen pick. What went wrong with him? That whole draft is a mess for the Nats.
Keith Law: I didn’t like that pick. But then he lost most of his fastball after he signed.

Greg: Is Soroka just a midrotation starter? #3? #4? He just keeps producing.
Keith Law: Jose Berrios produced everywhere in the minors, and while I still think he’ll be a good big league starter eventually, look at his MLB work to date.

JWR: Ian Happ hit his 5th HR of the season this morning. Do we still waive it away as SSS or is that enough HR in a short period of time to have significance?
Keith Law: Zero significance. ZEEEEEEEROOOOOOOOOOOO.

Greg: You seem very angry.
Keith Law: Nope. Bad reading job by you.

Kyle: I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to do these chats. I learn a lot from you.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I hope you learned this week that nothing is real and 8 games of baseball stats are merely numbers spit out of a random number generator. Good times! I will be at the Florida/Vandy games tonight and tomorrow and hope to see a few of you there. Thank you for joining me and for all of your questions this week, especially on such short notice since I wasn’t sure I’d be in my hotel room in time to do this. Twelve days to Smart Baseball!

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Stick to baseball, 4/8/17.

I had one Insider post this week, on the most prospect-packed minor league rosters to open the season. I have already filed a draft blog post on last night’s outing by Hunter Greene, with additional notes on a half-dozen other draft prospects, including Brendan McKay and Austin Beck. (EDIT: It’s up now.) I held my regular Klawchat on Thursday.

I resumed boardgame reviews for Paste this week with a look at the reissue of Sherlock Holmes: Consulting Detective, specifically the Jack the Ripper & West End Cases set, but found it more like a solitaire puzzle than a cooperative game.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. The book now has two positive reviews out, one from Kirkus Reviews and one from Publishers Weekly.

Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

And now, the links…

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→ April 8, 2017
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Sarasota and other Florida eats.

Florida spring training kind of sucks, in my professional opinion, because the sites are so far apart and several are wastelands for decent food. I found a handful of decent spots in my week there this year, along with a lot of mediocrity, but I’ll just focus on the good here, including the fact that Sarasota of all places has a decent little food and coffee scene happening.

Baker & Wife is a farm-to-table type of place in Sarasota, recommended to me by a friend who lives nearby, and I was impressed by both the vegetable dishes and, as you’d expect from the name, the dessert. I went with two starters rather than a main, a salad of roasted yellow beets with goat cheese, pesto, and pine nuts, along with crab cakes with a spicy green papaya slaw; of all of that, the only aspect I didn’t care for was the slaw, which tasted too much of fish sauce. The beets were really spectacular, although I am a fan of roasted beets in any form, but I think they pair so well with goat cheese, any kind of nuts, and the salty, bright punch of the pesto. Dessert, I had the “baker’s bannoffie pie,” and I’ll let the menu describe it: “pecan and graham cracker crust, house made banana & vanilla bean pudding, chocolate chips, caramel, cream.” It was that good and then some. It all worked so well together.

Perq is a new third-wave coffee bar in Sarasota, using beans from various artisan roasters around the country, and offering numerous cold-brew and single-origin espresso options along with the usual. It’s a sizable cafe too, unlike a lot of third-wave spots, and they appear to rotate through various roasters – they had a number of I knew from my travels and when I chatted up one of the baristas, he mentioned several other great roasters they’ve used, like heart, Sightglass, Four barrel, Counter Culture, and more.

I had half a decent meal at Selva, a Peruvian restaurant downtown, where the ceviche was very good and the entree I had was not. The ceviche isn’t truly traditional; they have numerous combinations that include various fruits, acids, and types of fish, and the tuna/watermelon ceviche I got had larger pieces of fish than I’m used to seeing in ceviche. It came with a spicy lime sauce for dipping or pouring to taste, and I would recommend using that if you end up here. But the main course was kind of a mess – a duck breast that was cooked very inconsistently, and served with a risotto that was anything but.

There’s also a tiny Buddy Brew location right near Selva, at the entrance to the parking garage downtown not far from Tamiami Trail. I would go to Perq before this, but Buddy Brew is solid.

Elsewhere in the state, I discovered the brand new Foxtail Coffee in Orlando’s Winter Park neighborhood thanks to a scout’s recommendation, and both times I went there was a line out the door. They had four coffees available from different countries; I tried their espresso one day and an Ethiopian Yirgacheffe pour-over the next, the latter of which came with a roasting demonstration from Iain, one of the owners and a baseball fan as well. It’s right near the old location of the Ravenous Pig, which has moved into the old Cask & Larder space but which I can report is still some of the best food to be had in the Orlando area.

Near the Jupiter complex is a very unassuming little coffee shop and roaster called Oceana, which does a lot of single origins as well but roasts most of them darker than I tend to like. Their pour-over options are the way to go – I had an Ethiopian the first day I was there, and I’ll be honest in that I was so in need of the caffeine I don’t remember much beyond the sheer pleasure of feeling it hit my bloodstream. Pass on the espresso as their extraction rate is way too high and the result is watery.

Merritt Island’s Cuban Island Cafe is worth a stop if you’re in that area, which I’d never visited before; I went for my standard choice, lechon asado, which in this case came with some amazing black beans, one maduro, one tostone, and well over a half-pound of pork.

I’ll also mention Harry’s Pizzeria in Miami, which appeared on a list of the best pizzerias in the U.S. a few years ago that I’ve kept on hand for my travels, hitting more than half of the 48 places they listed. The pizza itself was just average, but I had an escarole salad to start that was tremendous – lemon, anchovies, parmiggiano, and bread crumbs. It hit a little of everything, adding salty, sour, and umami notes to the slight bitterness of the raw greens. They have a few non-pizza options that might be worth trying if I ever go back to have that salad again.

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I Contain Multitudes.

You are currently covered in bugs.

That’s the fact that drives Ed Yong’s book I Contain Multitudes: The Microbes Within Us and a Grander View of Life, his highly acclaimed 2016 book about the microbiome, a relative neologism that refers to the interconnected world of microorganisms that exist in, on, and around all other life on earth. Without these bugs, we almost certainly wouldn’t exist, and the best estimates Yong has have bacteria and other microbes in and on our bodies outnumbering the cells of our actual bodies by a margin slighter over 1:1. You do not just contain multitudes, Yong quips (borrowing a line from Walt Whitman), but you are multitudes.

Yong spends as much time dispelling myths as he does explaining the new science of the microbiome because everyone who reads this has probably grown up believing one of two things about bacteria and other microbes: They’re dirty and bad and cause illness and death; or, some bacteria are good and we want lots of them but not the bad ones. Yong says neither is accurate; there aren’t “good” or “bad” microbes per se, but that the effect a microbe can have depends entirely on where it lives and thus what it’s able to do.

Microbes make the complexity of life on earth possible, sometimes serving as the difference between life and not-life, as in creatures that live in inhospitable, lightless environments at the bottom of the ocean near steam vents that bring geothermal heat out into the water. Scientists discovered creatures there that seemed to have no business existing in the first place, such as a worm that had no mouth or digestive tract. It turned out that the worm in question plays host to bacteria that provide it with all of the energy the worm needs by converting sulfur compounds found in that dark environment into chemicals the worms can use.

He also explains how evolution works differently – and apparently faster – in bacteria than it does in multicellular organisms, thanks to something called HGT, Horizontal Gene Transfer. (As opposed to, say, the Mariners moving Segura to second base if Cano is hurt; that would be a Horizontal Jean Transfer.) Bacteria have the ability to swap genes with other bacteria in their environment, meaning they can alter their genome on the fly while still alive, as opposed to humans, who are stuck with the genes that brought us to the dance.

Perhaps most relevant to the lay reader are the two chapters near the end of the book where Yong talks about how probiotics don’t work and how we might use bacteria, including their HGT superpowers, to fight diseases like dengue and Zika. Probiotic products are all the rage now, but there’s no evidence that swallowing these bacteria – which appear in tiny amounts even in products like yogurt – alters your microbiome in any way. Your gut flora are largely a function of what you were born with, meaning in turn what you got from your mother in birth (vaginal delivery exposes the infant to the bacteria in the mucosal lining) or via breast feeding (which contains more bugs plus compounds that encourage the growth of helpful bacteria in the cut), and what you eat now (more fiber, please). So skip the kombucha and eat more plants.

Mosquitoes that spread disease often do so with the help of bacteria they host, but there’s an effort underway in Australia – a country far less hostile to science than the United States is – to release mosquitoes of the same species that carries viruses like dengue or chikungunya, A. Aegyptes, that have been infected with a Wolbachia bacterium that renders the critters immune to the viruses. These mosquitoes would then move into the environment, mate with other mosquitoes, and thus spread the bacterial ‘infection’ through the population, thus dramatically reducing the number of bugs flying around with the disease in the first place. A separate but related endeavor aims to do the same with the mosquitoes that carry the parasite that causes malaria in people, a disease that has proven particularly obstinate to the development of a vaccine (in part because it’s neither viral nor bacterial).

Yong’s book seems comprehensive, although I came into it knowing extremely little about the subject. He gets into fecal transplants, including why they’ve helped people with deadly C. dif infections where traditional treatments failed. He discusses antibiotic resistance, of course. He provides copious examples of symbiosis and dysbiosis in the wild, and how many species, including animals, deprived of their normal microbiomes fail to thrive. And he gets into how climate change is altering microbiomes worldwide, leading to mass deaths on coral reefs and the spread of a fungus (also highlighted in Elizabeth Kolbert’s The Sixth Extinction, the most recent winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction) that has already wiped out numerous species of tropical frogs.

Most important, however, is that Yong keeps this all so accessible. I find the subject interesting anyway, but his prose is readable and his stories quick and quirky enough that the audiobook held my attention throughout, including during some rather dreadful trips between spring training sites in Florida. Granted, it might make you think very differently about shaking hands or touching various surfaces, but I Contain Multitudes might also encourage you to eat better, get a dog, and throw out all your triclosan, while giving you a new appreciation for germs.

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→ April 7, 2017
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Neruda.

I admit to knowing less about how the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences settles on its five nominees for Best Foreign Language Film than I do about the other major awards, so when I say I don’t understand how Neruda wasn’t nominated for the honor while A Man Called Ove was, I mean that quite literally. Not only is Neruda a smarter and better film, but I find it hard to accept that a large number of movie industry people saw both and said, hey, the mawkish claptrap about the grumpy old man is the better choice. (Neruda is available to rent on amazon and iTunes.)

Neruda, Chile’s submission for the prize for 2016, was directed by Pablo Larrain, who also directed Jackie, which earned Natalie Portman a well-deserved Best Actress nomination. It’s a fictional story that stars the very real and very famous Chilean poet, Senator, and dissident Pablo Neruda’s flight from an anti-communist government in Chile in 1948, first in exile within his country and eventually in France. Through the movie, he’s pursued by the obsessed detective/inspector Oscar Peluchonneau, but Neruda has a strange plan in place, taunting the inspector with copies of books and handwritten notes while always remaining one step ahead of his predator.

As a chase film, Neruda stinks, so don’t rent this one looking for high adventure; there’s more comedy in the cops’ regular failures to find Neruda, even when he’s right under their noses. This is a far more philosophical work, one that is even structured like a poem, and that meditates openly on the nature of character and even on whether we are ‘real’ or merely the fictional products of someone else’s imagination.

Larrain has adopted a specific visual style here, where he cuts conversations up by settings, so that characters in the middle of a deep dialogue will suddenly shift positions, rooms, even ending up outside, but appear oblivious to the change in scenery. Part of this seemed to be an attempt to mimic the free verse of Neruda’s poetry, while it also seemed to underline the metafictional aspects of the story – that is, since these jumps are clearly not possible in reality, are we to suspect that other portions, even entire characters, are not real, but are merely projections of the creative genius of Neruda.

The title character is played by Luis Gnecco as a corpulent, arrogant libertine, as sure of his flight plan as he is of his literary talent, and not above the occasional champagne-soaked orgy. (There’s something inherently amusing about a man who is overweight and balding attracting women in twos and threes by virtue of his words.) He brings two voices to Neruda, one for regular dialogue, one for his poems and speeches, a gearshift for a character who, in reality, was certainly aware of his public profile and eager to play a role in his country’s history.

Oscar, played by Gael García Bernal, is the more demanding role, however, as the cop undergoes an existential crisis during an assignment that will make his career or end it in humiliation. He plays it with the veneer of the noir detective, dashing in suit and hat, betraying little emotion, always confident that the next raid will corner his prey, but little details in the performance and even his look – the unmade ties, the collar askew – show the doubt beneath the surface. In a story that truly has just two characters and focuses on the dance between them that keeps them apart until the final few scenes, García Bernals performance was literally essential, giving life to a film that could have descended into caricature or farce.

Neruda is in Spanish, and a little French, with English subtitles, which I only mention because I’m fairly sure I lost some of the benefits of understanding Neruda’s speeches and poems in the original language because I was also reading the English to make sure I didn’t miss anything important. I can understand a little Spanish, but apparently the letter “s” is banned in Chile, so I found much of the dialogue hard to grasp. Perhaps I’ll need to see about a sabbatical in Santiago; I hear they have good food there.

The real Neruda’s flight was far less daring or courageous; he was smuggled from house to house for three years, didn’t appear in public, didn’t taunt his pursuers, and eventually fled to Argentina and then France on a friend’s passport. He also earned criticism within his lifetime for his refusal to condemn communist leaders who suppressed journalists and other writers, putting party over principle, so to speak. This film version, while flawed in his personal life and his general arrogance, is far more heroic than the actual Chilean was. It’s a forgivable offense because of what it brings us in the interplay between him and Oscar, who turns out to be the real star of the show.

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→ April 7, 2017
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Commonwealth.

I’ve been a devotee of the fiction of Ann Patchett since reading her magnum opus, Bel Canto, an ensemble story that takes inspiration from the 1997 incident when Tupac Amaru fighters took over the Japanese embassy in Peru and held 72 people hostage for four months. Patchett built from that story to create a deep, rich web of complex characters and wrote a literary fugue that she later said was her attempt to recreate Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain. (I’m not a fan of that book, so I’d say there’s no comparison.)

Her latest novel, Commonwealth, is the only other novel she’s written that tries to tell the same sort of broad tapestry of a story, with at least five and as many as ten well-defined, realistic characters in a book that plays with time as she reconstructs the history of two families. The book starts with a christening party and a drunken kiss between a husband and a wife who are married to other people, a kiss that begets an affair that begets divorces, marriages, a death, and six children becoming stepsiblings and forging bonds that will last for decades.

This isn’t Bel Canto in format, however; that book had epic scope but was told in linear fashion. Commonwealth jumps around in time based on what details Patchett wants to reveal, a gambit that started as disorienting but improved as the story went on because each section reveals something about one or more characters that proves useful in the next. I still might have preferred a linear timeline here, largely because that makes it easier for me to immerse myself in a story, but Patchett is such a skilled storyteller that she can make the future into prologue and still have it all tie together.

Although the four adults involved in the two marriages that become an affair, two divorces, and another marriage set the plot in motion, this book is much more about the kids involved than anyone else: two sisters from one marriage, then four kids, two of each sex, from the other. They’re not an easy mix at any point, but because Bert and Beverly, the couple who kissed and eventually divorce their spouses to marry each other, are kind of half-assed parents, the six kids end up partners in crime, the older ones mostly taking care of the younger, but also getting into all sorts of trouble, some trivial, some tragic.

Each story focuses on different kids, but Albie, the second-youngest of the six children, is easily the most interesting, I think because Patchett has written him as someone who today would be considered “on the spectrum” of autism but who in this book’s time period would never have been diagnosed. He’s just weird in the eyes of his siblings, who hand him Benadryl tablets and tell him they’re candy so he won’t be such a pain, and grows into a self-medicating, risk-loving teenager who can’t stay in school or keep a job and really doesn’t find any stability until at least his 20s. But as he gets older and the family situation keeps changing, some of his bonds with siblings, especially his stepsister Franny (the second best-developed character in the book), become the novel’s true center.

There’s also a bit of fun metafiction within Commonwealth, where Franny, who feels as I do about books (hand me a supply of books and then just leave me alone for a few weeks), meets a literary idol of hers, Leon Posen, and eventually becomes his lover and sort of amanuensis. Leon eventually takes her stories of her childhood and writes them into a novel, Commonwealth, that restarts his literary career, becomes a bestseller, and narrowly misses winning the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. That last bit may prove prescient; the book is considered one of the favorites to win this year’s award, which will be announced on Monday, April 10th, but is probably less likely to win than Colson Whitehead’s The Underground Railroad.

Patchett’s prose is as lush as her characters, and here she marries the two with a story worthy of her words; when she hasn’t succeeded, it’s been in books with weak stories, like Run or Taft. Commonwealth is a huge success, however, a story of and for everyone, one that is simultaneously about nothing and about everything. Every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, and Patchett gives us a whole new unhappy family to enjoy.

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→ April 6, 2017
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Klawchat 4/6/17.

Questions go in the frame below, not the comments!

We’re also just 19 days from the release of Smart Baseball, which you can preorder now via Harper Collins’ official page for the book.

Keith Law: Getting what you want can be dangerous. Klawchat.

addoeh: How big of a gap is there between the value of J. Baez and I. Happ? If included in otherwise similar packages, is it the difference getting a #1/2 starter and a #2/3 starter?
Keith Law: I think Happ’s probably about as valuable as Baez is, given Baez’s known flaws and additional year of service. I’m not sure either headlines a deal for an ace – Eloy probably has to be in such a trade either way.

EricVA: What ever happened to Jesus Montero? Was he just overhyped? Did the Mariners make an adjustment that ruined him? Was he just a spectacular bust?
Keith Law: PED guy with what turned out to be very questionable makeup.

Gabriel: Hey KLAW, when is your first mock draft coming out?
Keith Law: Mid-May. I don’t think mocks this early have any value to readers. They’re just wild-assed guesses.

Dan: I know you are not a hitting coach but how would a long swing turn into a short swing (i.e Jason Heyward)?
Keith Law: When a player has a shoulder injury and changes the swing to prevent pain.

Woland: Hey Keith, any thoughts on Brandon Finnegan for this year? SSS obviously but he looked great in his start. Is he a potential top of rotation guy, or more middle of the road? thanks!
Keith Law: I think he ends up in the bullpen.

Josh Meyer: Do you see the Twins drafting Hunter Greene with the top pick?
Keith Law: No, I think it’s more likely they take a college guy like McKay there. But I would probably take Greene myself, given what I know now. I’m supposed to see him pitch tomorrow.

S.S. Size: Wow, can you believe it!? Mad-Bum is on pace to hit 60+ home runs!
Keith Law: Go away. I don’t want to hear from you until at least Memorial Day.

David: Steven Matz ever pitch a full season?
Keith Law: Maybe once. Cashner and Ross both did it, and both came in with injury and/or delivery concerns.

Travis: What are your thoughts on Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: First rounder. CF who never strikes out. I was skeptical of the power but he’s hitting the ball harder this year.

Dan from Cincy: When do you start hearing who specific teams seem to be targeting in the draft? Have you heard anything yet on the Reds at #2?
Keith Law: For most teams, not until May. However, the Reds are high enough in the draft and clear enough in their actions so far that I would say it’s 90% that they take Greene or McKay.

Darren: Hello Keith,
I have a friend with a son that is starting to experience issues with anxiety. I recommended she have her son read your work as you speak out about your personal issues. What would you recommend for a young boy first trying to come to understand and deal with this illness. Thanks for all you do.

Darren
Keith Law: Therapy is key, because he will need someone to help him understand what emotions/feelings are normal and what are the anxiety taking over. I also always counsel folks to consider medication, and to look at meditation, exercise, and possibly adjusting their diet (especially if the anxiety is affecting his stomach) too.

Ryan: Complete Cards homer so I admit bias but I would like to respectfully disagree with your opinion that Yadi does not belong in the HOF. He is currently sitting around 33 WAR which is pretty low by HOF standards. My issue is that Yadi’s best skill set is probably the one thing WAR is the worst at quantifying. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Yadi has had as good if not better defensive career than Omar Vizquel who is currently 7 dWAR ahead of him.
Keith Law: 33 WAR is absurdly low by HoF standards, even if we just look at catchers, and if you’re gifting Yadi a bunch of wins for catcher woo, you have to gift some to every catcher already in the Hall for a fair comparison.

Kyle KS: Preordered the book, excited for it! Speaking of baseball books, do you ever get into biographies like Ankiel’s upcoming one?
Keith Law: No interest in that.

J: So, the endless fattening of pitching staff calf is starting to get comedic. While I love the Bethancourting of rosters, it’s frustrating and boring to have a three-man bench. After the Indians postseason bullpen usage, and the Reds claiming they will have multi-inning relievers abounding, do you think there’s a chance of a team making the move back to an 11-man staff, leaving room for an actual 5-6 man bench? The team that does it and succeeds…. all the base with belong to them.
Keith Law: I think it’ll be a while before any team tries that (the smaller staff) because everyone is so terrified of overworking pitchers. (Except the Orioles, I guess, who ran Bundy out there for the seventh when he was throwing 88-90 last night.) First we’ll have to see managers develop a new model for using multi-inning relievers, and then you might see a team willing to back off the eight-man bullpen, which I agree is utter insanity.

Zeon: Did you ever play any baseball simulation video games, like Micro League, Tony LaRussa or OOTP? If so, which was your favorite(s)?
Keith Law: I played some Micro League and Earl Weaver Baseball as a kid.

Dana: Suzyn Waldman is the latest media member to take a shot at Clint Frazier. Are there character issues with Frazier or is this just a guy who rubs some people the wrong way because he dares to have fun playing baseball?
Keith Law: Apparently she made the whole story up, for which she should be suspended. I wouldn’t say much for her bona fides as a journalist, but she is a member of the press, and fabrication is a cardinal sin.

John from Northern Virginia: I know medication can help keep depression and anxiety in check when the insanity of the word comes crashing in around one’s rational view. Do you have any favorite strategies for coping when the meds just aren’t enough? (other than starting to drink heavily, of course). Thanks again.
Keith Law: Yeah, I don’t recommend booze as a long-term strategy. But you’ve probably noticed I’m taking in more movies and haven’t slowed up at all on my reading. A little escapism helps as long as you don’t lose contact with reality.

Chris: I’m interested in getting your take on the Cards extension of Molina (3 yr /$60M.) As a Cards fan, I don’t mind overpaying a little for fan sentiment as long as it doesn’t seriously hamper the teams ability to compete down the road. Does this deal seam to find that balance?
Keith Law: I think that deal may also include the price of him mentoring Carson Kelly for a transitional year or two. I hope so, actually, because I think it’s a good use of Molina’s skills and because I think it can turn Kelly from a potentially above-average regular into a star.

Andy: Now that the season has started, we can definitively say that the Giants haven’t figured out their bullpen, Cleveland will be carried by their hitting, and that Seattle and Texas won’t attain last year’s heights. We know all this so why watch anymore baseball this year? Things are decided.
Keith Law: You forgot that the Blue Jays are doomed.

Nelson: What do scouts mean when they said ” that player doesn’t have a good make up”?. What is make up ?
Keith Law: Character. Personality. Work ethic, aptitude, perseverance, ability to work with others. It can also include off-field stuff, so “bad makeup” might also mean he drinks too much or has had problems with the law.

Brady: Coming out of HS, were there character questions with Clint Frazier in his scouting report?
Keith Law: Not at all. Cocky kid who could back it up. I’m pissed that Waldman decided to sandbag the kid like that.

Andy: So Ian Kahaloa cost himself probably much needed development time. Is that a 20 mental makeup? I mean, I don’t want to yell at a cloud here, but it seems like posting a video of you doing illegal drugs is more than just a youthful mistake.
Keith Law: It sounds like addiction rather than just stupidity. He needs help and I hope he’s getting it.

Nick: Yo that Earl St. Clair from your playlist is smackin’!
Keith Law: Contrary to what he says, he’s got it like that.

Erich: Watched the Orioles game last night and Bundy’s stuff looked as good as I have ever seen. IF (big IF) he remains healthy, how high is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Except it wasn’t. His fastball was down from last year, and way down by the end of his start.

Nick: Do you watch Archer? Some of the best comedy writing I’ve seen.
Keith Law: I used to but dropped off around season 4 when they tried that Vice storyline that kind of ruined the show.

Derek: Scouting report on Trea Turner’s defense at SS? My recollection is that you thought he’d have enough arm to stick there. So far he looks good – seems to have good range to his right and his arm is solid and accurate (if not a cannon). One would expect his athleticism to play there…
Keith Law: Arm was there, footwork was fine, worried about his slight frame holding up under the work of a middle infielder but I think he’s filled out better than i expected.

Jeff: What does Michael Gettys’ hit tool need to be to be an average or better major leaguer? Likelihood he gets there?
Keith Law: He’s not getting there. I don’t think it’s even a 10% chance. He can’t find a swing that works, and he’s been through quite a few already.

Robert: Twins opening day broadcast, Dan Gladden comments how it’s such a great day for sons and fathers. Sent my wife through the roof. She also loathes every ‘women, wine, and baseball’ type of event. It’s this kind of passive sexism that needs to be changed if MLB wants to grow. Women can enjoy sports just like men, without having to wear pink jerseys, drink wine, and told that it’s worth going to see Kris Bryant in tight pants.
Keith Law: When people complain about hearing women (like my friend and colleague Jess Mendoza) on sports broadcasts, I’d like to send them this comment and see if they are similarly bothered by 19th century sexism too.

Burns: Higher ceiling, Franklin Perez or Forrest Whitley? Which is more likely to reach it?
Keith Law: Whitley definitely has the higher ceiling for me.

Brett : How many of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Polanco will become above average everyday regulars?
Keith Law: Yes, yes, yes, no, maybe.

Poppy: What are some good coffee places in San Diego? As a coffee novice espresso seems a bit strong what would be some of your recommendations for trying to get into it?
Keith Law: Love Bird Rock there. James and Copa Vida are solid. Espresso doesn’t have to be strong, but you might start by asking for a gibraltar (or a cortado), a drink that has some milk in it but not enough to drown the coffee out like a latte would.

Jeff: I’m a huge fan of your work. Have you ever considered writing a book? I bet it would be great.
Keith Law: I have indeed considered that.

Moltar: So Lugo and Matz are down and Montero looked Monterrible in long relief yesterday. After Three Children In An Overcoat (aka Sean GilMartin), I have to imagine an off the board guy will make some meaningful starts for the Mets. The guy I’ve pegged is Chris Flexen. He’s had some injuries, but with some Warthen tutelage I think he can be this year’s Gsellman. What say you Klaw?
Keith Law: Flexen could be that 12th man type who helps, but what Gsellman did last year (adding a full grade of fastball) is kind of nuts and I wouldn’t predict that for anyone.

Dante: When a pitcher is coming off a major injury (shoulder, elbow), how much do they usually work on fixing mechanics, or changing pitch mix (i.e., changing what likely got them injured in the first place)? It seems most pitchers go right back to what they were doing before, which likely leads to the injuries coming back.
Keith Law: Depends on the organization. Some teams will use that opportunity to rework a delivery. Marcos Molina’s stuff is down, but post-TJ he’s got his arm slot back up close to where it was when he first signed.

Nelson: Can you help me out: Is it incorrect to say “a high rate of speed” when refering to something going fast? I always thought that was wrong but then I saw it in a NYTimes piece so maybe Im the dummy
Keith Law: I thought the word for that was velocity.

Marcus: In your opinion, when is the right time to call up Cody Bellinger? By all accounts (aside from his ST batting average) he looks every bit a big leaguer right now. I’m sure they feel like Toles has earned a spot, but would a Bellinger/Joc/Puig OF be better?
Keith Law: They may want him to come up as a 1b, in which case there’s an immovable object that will slow his timetable.

Matt : Who do you think is second on padres board (after Greene of course)
Keith Law: I’ve heard Austin Beck for them and the Rays, which was why I raced down there on Monday (and saw him do squat).

Wood: Do you think Andruw Jones belongs in the HOF?
Keith Law: Probably not, but he has a better case than Yadi. I just think Jones’ career was too short; how many HoFers were done at age 31 other than guys who died young like Addie Joss?

Matt : Going to have new draft rankings coming out soon?
Keith Law: Later this month – we’ve pushed some things back because the draft is late (June 12) and so I can do a top pro prospects update next week, by which point #1 and #2 will have graduated along with Josh Bell.

Dmitry : My patient, who is a Murray Chass old school kinda guy bet me a dinner at Rao’s (he has a table) that Beltre will not make the HOF within his first 2 years of eligibility. I say he does. Do you agree or is too much of his value tied to underappreciated SABR metrics?
Keith Law: I think he does because of two factors. One, the electorate is slowly changing. Two, the old school is going to recognize his milestones – he’ll get to 3000 hits this year and probably retires with 500 homers – and will simply consider his defense and clubhouse effects as additional positives.

Darren: Hi Keith, What are you thoughts on Braden Shipley. Can he recover from the mismanagement of the previous regime. Did you happen to see him? What is his ceiling now? Thanks.
Keith Law: I’ve heard the new regime is trying to work on his delivery to restore some of the lost power but I haven’t seen it myself. I didn’t put him on my breakouts list, despite past faith in his offspeed stuff, because I heard in spring training that it’s still a lot of average.

No Pepper On The Grass: My team can’t score a touchdown, so I’m going to invoke the nuclear option and change the length of the football field to 80 yards.
Keith Law: That seems fair.

LA Baseball Fan: Hi Keith. Love the chats. Do you think Hunter Green is a first round talent as a SS? If so why? Is his arm at that position enough?
Keith Law: Yes. He has a 70 arm at short. top ten pick as a SS.

Harrisburg Hal: At what Eastern League parks are you most likely to be seen? Reading? Trenton? Would love to catch you in Harrisburg.
Keith Law: Reading and Trenton most likely. I’ve been to one game in Harrisburg and two in Bowie since I moved here.

Niklas: Why is there a rule 5 draft? It just seems like a lot of times it actually hurts the players that are drafted. Tyler Goeddel sat on the bench on a bad team for a whole year when he really needed at bats. How does that help the development of these players?
Keith Law: Its purpose was to help players from becoming trapped in loaded farm systems when they could help a major-league club. The rule change about ten years ago undid a lot of that, so now eligible players are often too far away to handle the jump. Goeddel should have played more in the second half last year, though. I don’t understand the Phillies taking him, keeping him all year and all winter, not playing him enough for a real look, and then dumping him this week.

Tim (NJ): Finnegan’s start last night for the Reds got a lot of buzz in Cincinnati – up to 94-96, vastly improved changeup. Know you were on him as reliever a while ago – anything change since then?
Keith Law: Answered above, but I’ve seen him hit 97 before.

Erik: Did you get a chance to listen to any audiobooks during all your driving? If so, any new recommendations? You’ve been 2 for 2 for me so far with Ballad of the Whiskey Robber and Undeniable.
Keith Law: I listened to Delusions of Gender (interesting but dry) and I Contain Multitudes (a strong 70 for me). I’m now listening to S-Town like all the cool kids.

John: If you were the Astros, would you include Martes and Tucker in a deal for Quintana?
Keith Law: Yes, I would, but I don’t think that reported deal was ever on the table.

RobertM: Congrats on your new, and I gather first book. That’s has to be exciting. I know this has been asked previously, but will there be any bookstore signings, or perhaps at other types of locations?
Keith Law: Thank you, it is indeed my first but I hope not my last. I know I’ll be at the Georgia Center for the Book on May 16th, and have been invited to one or more Pitch Talks events, including one in Toronto on June 26th. I’ve talked to Changing Hands in AZ about doing one in October too. Interested bookstores or other venues should contact Danielle Bartlett at Harper Collins; if I can accommodate something in my regular travels, I’m happy to do these.

Greg P: Are the Royals stunting the development of Raul Mondesi by having him start at the major league level? Would he be better off getting some time in AAA?
Keith Law: I think so. But I also didn’t agree with how they developed him in the minors, such as asking him to bunt for hits when he hadn’t figured out how to work the count effectively.

Hinkie: Is Pavin Smith the best hitter in this year’s draft? Also, will he be there at 1-8 for the Phillies?
Keith Law: Not the best hitter, or in the top five. He’ll be there at 8 and I bet he’ll be there at 9 too.

RobertM: Just saw the news on James Kaprielian. Hopefully rest cures what ills him, but doesn’t look encouraging. If you had to guess, is the rise in TJS all velocity related? And related, did you ever see the film Fastball and your thoughts.
Keith Law: I think year-round pitching is one major reason, higher velocity a minor one. Jeff Passan’s book The Arm is the must-read on this subject. Never seen that movie.

Justin: Do you see Adam Frazier ever becoming anything more than a decent bench player?
Keith Law: I do not.

CB: Remember all the people who said that voting for Clinton and voting for Trump were one and the same? I wonder what happened to all of those people?
Keith Law: Actually I ran into a few online who called me a few names and said I was just falling for the corporate whatever it was I stopped listening.

Doug: Do you think Miguel Diaz is a potential starter for the Padres? He’s looked nasty against the Dodgers so far this season.
Keith Law: Because he’s throwing one inning at a time. Last year was the closest thing he’s ever had to a healthy season, and he didn’t reach 100 innings or pitch above low-A. I think he could be a really good reliever.

Chris: Any insight into Szapucki’s arm issues? I’ve heard something is up.
Keith Law: He has a shoulder impingement. That’s public info.

Chris: Soooooo the Mets are definitely ruining Conforto right?
Keith Law: They’re ruining their lineup.

Wade: How much do you pay attention to college seniors?
Keith Law: Only if they’re tabbed as prospects, like Wil Crowe (technically a redshirt junior, but he’s going to be 23 in september).

Chris: First in the queue for the book at Portland PL! Does it make me a bad person for not buying it? (I do pay for Insider mostly for your work fwiw)
Keith Law: Read it and tell the world it’s wonderful and I’ll forgive you.

Andy: Will Shohei Otani be able to hit and pitch in MLB?
Keith Law: No. His bat is way overhyped.

Scott: Braves were really aggressive by promoting Allard and Soroka to AA. Seems like they?re rushing them a bit, no?
Keith Law: It’s aggressive. I think Allard can handle it, might even need it so he’s not just getting by on that curveball. Soroka surprised me more, but they have so many starters they needed to bump someone up to make room.

Josh: Cedric Mullins: is he a prospect worth watching, and what are your thoughts on the Orioles starting him in Bowie? Seems uncharacteristically aggressive.
Keith Law: He’s a good little player, made the end of my O’s org report based primarily on one good scouting report on him. I saw him homer in a big league game last week – good athlete, can run, little dude but strong hands.

Nelson: How’s your dog doing?
Keith Law: She’s insane. Although right now she’s sleeping because I ran her ragged earlier.

Snitker: Will Ronald Acuna be in AAA by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I don’t understand why Atlanta fans all want to rush Acuna. Look at how little he’s played anywhere above short-season.

forever it: How much does MLB bloodlines factor into prospect evaluations? For instance, every item I read on Vlad Jr. mentions his dad’s approach and body type, but I’ve never once seen someone note a guy’s non-MLB dad is, say, morbidly obese or something and say he may have weight concerns later on. Do teams overvalue this, dreaming on a Bonds or Griffey, even though they’re more likely to get a Gwynn Jr.?
Keith Law: Non-MLB dads and even moms can be considerations in the draft. I remember seeing one first-rounder’s parents, who probably combined to weigh about seven bills, and factored that into where I ranked him. (He didn’t pan out, but I don’t want to shame the kid’s parents here.) Scouts absolutely look at that stuff.

Matt: Huge fan of yours. I wondered if you ever read books along the lines of “I’m just reading this to learn something” as opposed to fiction/nonfiction books. They’re not the greatest examples, but the first that come to mind; books like Blink or Tipping Point. If so, do you have recommendations for any books that aren’t novels that will open windows into some new learning views?
Keith Law: Yes – if you search the dish you’ll find reviews for books like Thinking Fast and Slow, The Invisible Gorilla, Predictably Irrational, and Superforecasting, which would all fit what you’re looking for.

Jeff: A NYT story this week suggested the showcase circuit has destroyed fundamentals, down to the ability for college prospects to play catch. Is this an actual thing?
Keith Law: That’s a histrionic take on a real issue. Kids are absolutely taught to show off for the scouts at those events rather than to play real games and thus develop greater feel.

Tu PAC : The buzz at the back fields in Surprise for the Rangers was Leody Taveras, which was to be expected, but also Cole Ragans. Did you get a chance to see Ragans this spring, and is he someone who could shoot up the prospect lists this summer?
Keith Law: I didn’t, because they only played one game while I was there (I think). I have heard good things, mostly because he has uncommon feel for pitching for his age. It’s not a huge fastball.

Jack: Which Phillies prospect are you most interested in seeing?
Keith Law: The whole Lakewood rotation, really.

Kendall: As someone who suffers from anxiety, I second Keith’s comments. Therapy, once I finally went, helped me understand what was happening, and was immensely helpful.
Keith Law: Just passing this along.

Tevin: If you?re the Twins, how do you pass on Hunter Greene? 102 at 17 y/o? Lord. They need pitching, but he gives you two potential players in one to bank on. Also, Falvey known for developing pitchers in CLE ? great match. Kid seems like he ?gets it? too.
Keith Law: I think you take him, you send him out this summer as a shortstop, with the plan to pitch him in 2018. Maybe he does something either way as a hitter in the GCL to change your mind or reinforce it.

Jeffrey: Any plans to go to the Pacific NW and check out the #1 rated Oregon St. team?
Keith Law: No. Good college team doesn’t necessarily mean good draft prospects.

T: Kaprielian headed for an MRI. On a 1-10 how despondent should I be?
Keith Law: Start at 4, but keep your hand on the dial. Soon as you hear it, pump up the volume.

TJ: Saw former Tiger prospect Kevin Ziomwek retired after not being able to come back from thoracic outlet surgery. What sort of prospect did you see him as?
Keith Law: Probably a reliever in the long run. I guess the stuff never came back.

Jim: Travis Blankenhorn look like the future 3B of the Twins?
Keith Law: You know, I saw him last week in Fort Myers, and 1) oh my god is he huge and 2) he actually wasn’t that bad at third for a guy his size. Maybe he’s a 2b instead, but he can scorch the ball.

Rod: Does Hader get called up before Martes?
Keith Law: Hoy es jueves, entonces creo que no los vemos antes de martes.

Scott: Hi Keith. What would your best advice be to a father of 10-year-old daughter who wants to know why she only has the option of playing softball while boys get to play baseball (which is what she wants to play, although not with boys)
Keith Law: Ah, that’s a tough one. She should be allowed to play with boys (except in Iowa or Arkansas, where they have yet to turn the clocks to 1950 yet). But your question is a tougher one, the kind of thing that book Delusions of Gender gets at – girls do less because we condition them to do less, not because there’s anything different about their brains.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: So I’ve been reading your chats every week since you started on ESPN, but I’m curious, what more would you like to accomplish professionally?
Keith Law: Another book, not about baseball. Then we’ll see.

Skippy: Currently watching the Cardinals game and cubs abnouncer is making a big deal about Matt Carpenter being a coaches child and about how important that can be. I’m sure it has its positives if your dads a good coach but does it really make THAT much difference like so many announcers seem to believe? I hear it pretty often about certain players. It kinda feels like the same thing as when we refer to small framed white players as “scrappy” to me
Keith Law: I think that can go both ways. I’ve met players who were sons of big leaguers and showed shockingly little feel for the game. A couple were even to the point where I’d call them entitled.

Chris: What are you expecting from Zach Wheeler this year?
Keith Law: Maybe 100 good innings as a starter and long reliever.

Scott: Who has the best slider in baseball? Saw Sale from behind home last night, and I would be impressed if there’s one better.
Keith Law: Kershaw? I agree that Sale’s is up there. I’ve told the story before, but he didn’t have that pitch in college. I remember talking to a scout after Sale pitched against Lipscomb and the scout called Sale’s breaking ball that day a 3 (or 30).

Keith Law Disciple: Do you have any insight on what happened to Javy Guerra last year? Overhyped to begin with, injury, new team, other? Thanks!
Keith Law: A medical issue that I think has been mostly resolved, at least enough for him to resume his career.

Justin: Any chance Piscotty just cost himself a LOT of money with that extension? I get the security aspect, but even if he improves marginally from last year that is a steal for the team
Keith Law: I agree it’s a potential steal for the team but that’s a lot of security too. I will never criticize a player for taking the money, whether it’s choosing the higher offer in free agency or choosing security with an early long-term deal. Good for him.

Dan: I found Jayson Stark’s column on how no current MLB players are among America’s top 50 favorite pro athletes.I think attitudes of the Ian Kinslers of the world are contributing. While his commentary had a healthy dose of “we aren’t like THOSE people” referring to Latin players, there are surely plenty of American born players with personality and passion, who would love to express it without the risk of retaliation. I mean, Jose Bautista celebrates a huge postseason homerun and the next season the Rangers were still out for revenge. For celebrating the biggest hit of his career.
Keith Law: I think there’s something to this; we should be encouraging players who have some flair or personality to show it. But even the local media ran Bryce Harper down for being an enthusiastic, emotional player, and he posted one of the best seasons in MLB history two years ago.

RobertM: I’m nor sure if Waldman fabricated it, but she took someone’s word on it, and never verified it, and then spread it on a radio show. That’s even worse.
Keith Law: Yes, I would put that in the same bucket, and there has to be a consequence for that.

Gerald: I read your brief update on Matt Manning…did your or your sources see anything wrong with his delivery? Is he working on stuff that may lead to a loss of command? Is he destined to be a reliever long term? As a Tiger fan who sees the need for new blood on the horizon, your report really made me worry.
Keith Law: You probably should worry a little bit – he took a step backwards.

JB: Any thoughts on Kyle Wright’s less than stellar season thus far? Could he be this year’s Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Don’t think he falls anywhere near that far, but he’s definitely hurt himself with his lackluster showing. There are more guys in this draft going down than going up.

Rob: Does Franklin Perez have ace ceiling?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think more mid-rotation towards back-end.

David: What could the Yankees get for Betances in July? Robles from the Nats?
Keith Law: If you based it off the Miller and Chapman deals, yes, that’s a fair starting point, although the Nats may not see it that way.

Ted: Did you see the ESPN mag piece on Yoan Moncada? Seemed to imply there were maturity issues – does behind scenes chatter indicate something like this may impact his development? Or just typical young kid with money (i.e. no big deal)?
Keith Law: I didn’t read it, but there are maturity issues, for sure.

Andy: What do you think of Gorsuch as a Supreme Court candidate?
Keith Law: I think he’s an excessively strict constructionist, which foretells a rollback in civil rights.

Danny: Do you make anything of Chance Adams starting at AA instead of AAA? If he has to work on pitch sequencing or any individual pitch, wouldn’t he better served doing it in AAA after dominating AA?
Keith Law: Or the Yanks just don’t think he’s that great a prospect?

Bill: My real question – is there any way that the WBC could become worthy of your time? Is any World Cup style/Olympic system automatically less compelling because its an exhibition?
Keith Law: Doing it midseason with greater participation would help tremendously. I don’t find exhibitions automatically less compelling. I do think the US winning was a terrible outcome for MLB, though. The league gets much more value from another country winning, especially if it’s a team that hasn’t won before.

Jeff: Rosario is going to tear it up in Vegas, right
Keith Law: Yes, but it’s Vegas, so it shouldn’t make us overrate him.

Erich: Why do you think Stroman struggled so much at the beginning of last year? Bad luck? Overuse of sinker? Stuff translates to better results id think.
Keith Law: I thought bad luck. Will never forget seeing some jays blogger saying in June that the team should send Stroman to AAA. It was like message-board level overreaction.

Aaron: Over the last couple years, Anderson Espinoza’s star seems to have fallen slightly. Is there any concern from your end? Probability of reaching ace ceiling taken a modest or huge hit?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s fallen at all, actually.

Brandon: I wish more athletes realized this is an entertainment sport. As Cam Newton says if you don’t like me celebrating, don’t let me score. It’s that simple. You can celebrate without being dick pretty easily but not faux outraged has entered into sports. More enthusiasm is good for the game.
Keith Law: In baseball, if you’re not actively trying to hurt someone, it’s probably OK. Just don’t throw at anyone’s head or slide in spikes-up.

John: What is different about the spiked curveball that a lot of pitchers (e.g. Kluber) are throwing these days? I think I get how the grip is different, but what about the action?
Keith Law: Harder break, sharper to the eye, but more difficult to command.

Erich: You dont seem like the kind of person who would work at a large corporation like espn (with them becoming more and more of a hot take machine.). Have you ever considered branching off and doing something on your own?
Keith Law: They have never asked me to do hot takes and when the new baseball editor took over last summer I told her specifically I didn’t want to do that. She agreed completely and it hasn’t changed one bit. As long as they treat me well, I don’t feel like I need to go out on my own.

Marshall MN: Do you have any plans to stop by the Twins Chattanooga AA team this year, because selfishly I would love to hear an updated scouting report on pitching staff? Both the rotation (Gonsalves, Stewart Romero, Jorge) and the bullpen (Burdi, Jay, others) are loaded with guys to watch.
Keith Law: No, I don’t fly to see minor league stuff, only draft guys. Minors I’ll do what I can around here (which is a lot), then Futures Game and AFL.

CKS: Heard a few reports that labelled Braves 3B Rio Ruiz as the ‘most improved player’ in spring training this year. Does he have the ability to be an everyday guy or is that wishful thinking?
Keith Law: ‘most improved player’ = (wanking motion)

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Beyond Soto and Robles, who is the Nats prospect you’re most intrigued by?
Keith Law: Luzardo when he’s back. Also drawing a blank on their big Latin American signing.

EricVA: About to have my first kid and everybody tells me to freeze a bunch of food for after. However, I cook for us every night and find it therapeutic. I firmly believe I’ll still want to cook dinner every night while my wife watches our baby. Am I insane?
Keith Law: I kept cooking after my daughter was born. But I will suggest you keep it simple, because you’ll be too damn tired to do much cleanup.

Bob: Ok, his bat is overhyped but will Otani be a top 20 pitcher in MLB? Top X?
Keith Law: Top ten. Maybe top 5.

Alex: Top 10 for Kopech seems high considering (iirc) you saying he has a legitimate chance to be a reliever. Is the upside just so enormous that that outweighs the risk?
Keith Law: Correct. It’s potentially a top 5 starter in baseball.
Keith Law: He’s, not it’s.

Dan: Good luck with the release of your book! Can’t wait to read it. I enjoyed your write-up about the day you went to Cardinals camp to see the minor leaguers. Was your overall impression better or worse than you expected? As in, could that group in the lower minors lead the charge to a top five ranked system in a couple years? Thank you!
Keith Law: Hicks was the big surprise – I’d heard about the 101 mph, but 92-97 with plus sink is even better than a straight 101. And he’s got two other weapons, and the delivery works. The other guys I saw were all close to expectations; I might say Junior Fernandez looked more relieverish than I’d hoped.

Steve: Ryon Healy. Potential 30 Hr and 300 average guy?
Keith Law: No, I’d bet the under, a lot.

Kvothe: Thoughts on every pitcher’s velocity being higher because of Trackman tracking velocity right when the ball is released from pitcher’s hand?
Keith Law: Nothing to say. As long as we all know that, we’re good.

JJ: I think most Red Sox fans are down on the Kimbrel and Pomeranz trades and the resulting dings to our minor league system, but the Sale for Moncada/Kopech was probably a win-win for all Sox involved, right?
Keith Law: I thought so at the time. I thought they overpaid for Kimbrel but it was in line with what Miller and Chapman fetched.

Erich: Do you ever voice displeasure with other espn analysts for hot takes? Its very frusterating to see guts say things just for attention.
Keith Law: If it’s a baseball take, I will.

Virat: Do you think Conforto could handle CF on a daily basis? and is his bat worth playing him there?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a major league caliber CF.

Steve: Does Brendon Rodgers have the ability to stick at shortstop or is Trevor Story there for a bit
Keith Law: Definitely a shortstop, but not soon enough to worry about Story. That will work itself out somehow.

Tommy: It seems to me that both political parties look to appeal to the largest group they can get votes from, which usually means people who are less than educated, to put it mildly. How about setting up the voting machines to give a quick 3 question quiz to root out all of the people who haven’t the mental capacity to vote on important issues? Everyone can feel like they voted, but only those who can pass a simple quiz will have their votes count.
Keith Law: I assume your question is well-intentioned, but that’s basically a literacy test, which has been illegal in US elections since 1970.

JJG: Is Matt Chapman similar to Mike Olt in tools, or just statline?
Keith Law: Much better fielder. More similar to Matt Dominguez in that respect.

Craig: Bruce Rondon a future dominant closer or just another hard throwing middle reliever?
Keith Law: I’d bet on Joe Jimenez becoming a big league closer rather than Rondon.

Adam: It’s interesting, the game is the best it has ever been in its history. Saying that, who playing now would you consider to be Hall of Famers? I agree Molina is not yet close, but I am wondering who you would think we will be seeing in Cooperstown in twenty years?
Keith Law: Anyone at all? Pujols, Beltre, Kershaw, Trout, Beltran, Miggy, Cano, Ichiro. Among younger guys, Machado, Harper, Bryant, Lindor all are off to that kind of start. And while it’s early for a pitcher, Chris Sale is about 40% of the way there.

Steve: Does Jameson Tallion become a number two for Pittsburgh or does he have number one potential
Keith Law: Probably a good two when it’s all said and done. He’s another guy who got hurt and cleaned up his delivery while recovering.

Devon from DC: Any plans to come to DC for a book signing?
Keith Law: Not at the moment, but again, it has to come from the venue – Harper Collins is setting up a ton of media hits but not a book tour.

matt: Hey Keith, any idea why Buster Olney no longer does his daily links roundup? It was a valuable resource and (along with your work) the main reason I pay for Insider. I deeply miss it.
Keith Law: I don’t know, sorry.

JJG: Read many times when he was coming up that Olt was a future Gold Glover (fwiw). Was Olt overrated as a fielder or is Chapman just a special defender (or both)?
Keith Law: Yeah, he had that reputation, but I never saw it live – I’m sure he was good, but I couldn’t vouch for how good. He was an awful defensive SS as an amateur, though. Funny how a guy can be a 3 at short and become a 6 or better at third or second.
Keith Law: OK, I went long this week but I have to go to the bus stop to get my daughter. Thank you all as always for all of the questions. Nineteen days till Smart Baseball!

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→ April 3, 2017
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Music update, March 2017.

I ended up missing about ten days of music listening while with the family in Arizona and getting ready for various trips, but I think the playlist turned out okay thanks to the volume of new stuff this month, mostly from bands I already knew from previous releases. It’s been a big year for comebacks from 1990s artists too, with three acts on here who have recently released their first new material in over a decade.

If you can’t see the widget below, you can access the Spotify playlist directly.

alt-J – In Cold Blood. It’s no secret that I’m a fan of alt-J’s work, especially their debut album An Awesome Wave, which is on the very short list of my favorite albums of all time, up there with OK Computer, The Last Broadcast, and Whitesnake. (Just kidding about that last one. Mostly.) I wasn’t totally on board with alt-J’s musical shift for their second album, where they eschewed the minimalist approach of their first record with what I considered very mixed results. This song, the second of two singles released so far in advance of their third album, has their trademark lyrical weirdness and interplay across vocals and instruments, but the same ‘big’ sound as we got on This Could All Be Yours.

Portugal. The Man – Feel It Still. This is the song Fitz and the Tantrums recorded in 2017 in an alternate universe where they didn’t become a shitty pop band. Portugal. The Man can be as weird and unconventional as alt-J, but bombast is their raison d’etre, and if anything I find them restrained here on this very old-school funk/R&B track.

Wavves – Daisy. I’m a fan of Nathan Williams’ brand of punk-pop, more so than of some of his predecessors in this California surf-rock sort of vein, which often was more obnoxious than actually good (Nerf Herder or New York’s Wheatus come to mind). Wavves’ sixth album will be out on May 19th and good luck getting that little high-pitched guitar line out of your head.

Basement – Submission. This track comes from Basement’s 2016 album Promise Everything, which was just re-released in a deluxe edition by their new record label. I’ve only heard this song so far, a hard rock track with grunge style but cleaner production.

Dreamcar – Kill for Candy. So, go figure: this is AFI lead singer Davey Havok and the three musicians from No Doubt, and “Kill for Candy” sounds nothing like either band to me. It’s new wave revival, like White Lies or Editors, and catchy without the cloying sound of No Doubt’s faux-ska-whatever they call it.

Grandaddy – Brush with the Wild. Grandaddy broke up in 2006, which I mention only because I wasn’t aware they’d broken up until I heard this song and read that it was their first new track in eleven years. I wasn’t a big fan in their heyday, but this song has a good hook and a strong “Shorter War on Drugs” feel.

Black Honey – Somebody Better. I think this is the third song I’ve included from Black Honey over the last year, and I’m still waiting (and excited) for the British quartet’s first album given the power-pop singles they’ve released to date.

The New Pornographers – Whiteout Conditions. TNP’s new album, also called Whiteout Conditions, comes out on Friday; you can stream it on NPR’s First Listen before that. In the meantime, the title track is another kick-the-door-open sort of pop gem; A.C. Newman can craft some potent hooks, and I love the way he plays with his vocal delivery here.

MisterWives – Oh Love. This second single from their upcoming album Connect the Dots is a step down from “Machine” in terms of hook and tempo, although Mandy Lee gets to showcase her voice a little more here.

Oh Wonder – Ultralife. I don’t think I caught this London duo’s self-titled debut album, which came out in the fall of 2015, but this title track of their second album, release date unknown, grabbed my attention with the lush instrumentation and apparent mix of influences from several different styles and even decades, back to ’80s pop.

alt-J – 3WW. Obligatory.

Earl St. Clair featuring PJ – Ain’t Got It Like That. St. Clair’s debut EP, My Name is Earl, dropped in early March, and it’s a serious throwback to ’70s soul and funk.

Tei Shi – Justify. Nothing against Tei Shi, who continues to churn out weird-but-intriguing music, but I can’t listen to this without picturing that overhyped Madonna video. (“There’s Prince!”)

Spoon – Tear It Down. I’ve heard three tracks off Spoon’s latest album, Hot Thoughts, so far, and I think … it’s a Spoon album. It’s good, but if there’s something novel here, I haven’t caught it yet.

The Kooks – Be Who You Are. I’d put this in the same category as Spoon’s latest – this is a pretty standard Kooks song, with a decent hook, but nothing we haven’t heard before. It’s like someone took peak Britpop and decided to add more ’60s to it.

Slowdive – Sugar for the Pill. This is more in the vein of Slowdive’s muttering, shoegazing past.

The Jesus and Mary Chain – Song For A Secret. I thought J&MC’s comeback album, Damage and Joy, was a bit tame, but it still had some solid moments like this track, which seems like a sequel to “Sometimes Always.”

White Reaper – The Stack. There’s a little sameness to White Reaper’s output now, but I like their punk-tinged power-pop sound and the main five-note guitar riff here is solid.

The Black Angels – I’d Kill for Her. Another band that’s been around for a while but that escaped my attention, the Black Angels engage in some heavy psychedelic rock, here punctuated by a whining guitar lick that gives the whole thing a Neil Young sort of vibe.

Mastodon – Precious Stones. I originally had “Andromeda” on this playlist, also from Emperor of Sand, but I prefer Mastodon tracks with clean vocals – their music is heavy, but progressive rather than extreme, and their best songs play the vocals off the music.

Dark Tranquillity – The Absolute. This song was a bonus track on DT’s latest album, 2016’s Atoma, and it’s a big departure from their recorded output to date. I’d put it more along the lines of Opeth or Candlemass than the typical melodic death metal that typifies Dark Tranquility’s discography to date.

Pallbearer – I Saw the End. I think it’s fair to say Pallbearer is the best doom band in the world now, although I understand there’s not a ton of competition and some of you are probably wondering what “doom” is in this context. I think they’re the spiritual heirs to Black Sabbath.

Ra’s Dawn – Inside Out. Is histrionic metal a genre? Ra’s Dawn seem to embody the term, combining progressive thrash with the bombastic vocals of early power metal stalwarts like Helloween or Hammerfall. I like the music here but could do without the disappearance of the guitars behind the verses.

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