→ March 4, 2018
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Oscars preview and picks, 2018 edition.

If you haven’t heard it yet, Chris Crawford and I recorded a podcast previewing tonight’s Academy Awards, but I also wanted to be able to put my predictions here for everyone to see, as well as links to all of the nominees I’ve reviewed so far. As always, bear in mind I am not a professional film critic in any way, and I have no inside knowledge at all of who or what is likely to win any of these awards. I just have opinions.

I’ll do a full ranking of all of the 2017 films I’ve seen once I get Loveless.

Best Picture

Who should win: Of the nine nominees, I would probably vote for The Shape of Water over Dunkirk but would be fine with either winning.

Who will win: I think The Shape of Water is going to edge out Three Billboards given the blowback against the latter’s mishandling of a police brutality subplot that’s treated as a joke. I still think there’s maybe a 5% chance Get Out shocks the world, though.

I haven’t seen: Got ‘em all this year.

Who was snubbed: The Florida Project was my #1 movie of 2017, with only a few films left for me to see to put a bow on last year. I don’t assign letter grades to movies a la Grierson & Leitch, but that would be my only A, I think.

Best Director

  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Who should win: Nolan.

Who will win: I said in the podcast with Chris that I could see Gerwig (first woman) winning, but I think I’d probably still bet on del Toro.

Who was snubbed: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, making a masterpiece with a cast of largely non-professional actors.

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Who should win: Day-Lewis gave the best performance. I think I’d prefer to see Kaluuya win, and it was a real breakout role for him, but DDL is just a master.

Who will win: Oldman, who should win for Best Impersonation, but that’s not really the same thing, is it?

I haven’t seen: Roman J. Israel, Esq..

Who was snubbed: John Cho for Columbus, a wonderful movie almost nobody has seen.

Best Actress

  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, I’d give it to Hawkins.

Who will win: Everyone seems to think McDormand has this locked up. She’s good, but I think her role was much less demanding than Hawkins’ or one of the actresses I think was snubbed.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya.

Who was snubbed: Daniela Vega for A Fantastic Woman, and perhaps Alexandra Barbely for On Body and Soul or Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. This was the strongest category of all this year.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Who should win: Dafoe.

Who will win: Rockwell.

I haven’t seen: All the Money in the World. This seems like an acknowledgement of the effort rather than the performance.

Who was snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg (who appeared in three Best Picture nominees this year) for Call Me By Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, Metcalf.

Who will win: Janney.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya or Mudbound.

Who was snubbed: Holly Hunter for The Big Sick.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

      • Who should win: I’m torn on this one, but I think I’d vote Get Out here.

      Who will win: I have no idea. I’ll guess Lady Bird.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: The Florida Project and Columbus.

      Best Adapted Screenplay

      • Call Me By Your Name
      • The Disaster Artist
      • Logan
      • Molly’s Game
      • Mudbound

      Who will win: Call Me By Your Name.

      I haven’t seen: Call Me is the only one I’ve seen.

      Who was snubbed: The Sense of an Ending, another very good, quiet film that almost nobody saw last year. It’s adapted from the Booker Prize-winning novel by Julian Barnes.

      Best Animated Feature

      Who should win: Coco.

      Who will win: Coco.

      I haven’t seen: Ferdinand.

      Who was snubbed: This category has become a disaster thanks to the change in voting rules I mentioned yesterday, favoring big studio releases over indie films. But there were a ton of eligible films that were #BetterThanBossBaby, including The LEGO Batman Movie and The Girl Without Hands.

      Best Short Film – Animated

      • ”Dear Basketball”
      • ”Garden Party”
      • ”Lou”
      • ”Negative Space”
      • ”Revolting Rhymes

      Who should win: Three of these are great; I’d probably vote “Revolting Rhymes,” which is on Netflix. I reviewed them all in one post.

      Who will win: I assume “Lou” because it’s Pixar. It’s also great, as is “Negative Space.” I am really hoping “Dear Basketball,” easily the worst of the five, doesn’t win on the basis of Kobe Bryant’s involvement.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Best Documentary Feature

      Who should win: This really depends on what you want from your documentaries – should the film really expose or explain something, or can it just show you a slice of life? I liked four of the five nominees and would probably vote Faces Places by a nose over Icarus.

      Who will win: I think Faces Places so they can put Agnes Varda – or a cardboard cutout of her – on the stage.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: I did not see Jane, but given the wide critical acclaim of that film (about Jane Goodall), I was shocked it didn’t get a nod. I also thought City of Ghosts would get a nomination over Last Men in Aleppo.

      Best Short Film – Documentary

      • ”Ethel & Eddie”
      • ”Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
      • ”Heroin(e)”
      • ”Knife Skills”
      • ”Traffic Stop”

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, “Knife Skills” is a wonderful watch but “Traffic Stop” (on HBO) and “Heroin(e)” (on Netflix) are both so incredibly important.

      Who will win: I really don’t have a guess on this one.

      I haven’t seen: “Ethel & Eddie” and “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”. The latter is on YouTube but I couldn’t get through a few minutes of it because it was so upsetting right at the outset.

      Best Foreign Language Film

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, A Fantastic Woman, which also would have been worthy of a Best Picture nomination.

      Who will win: I think A Fantastic Woman gets this.

      I haven’t seen: I’m going to see Loveless this week, weather permitting, and it has earned critical plaudits on par with the best movies of the year. I also missed The Insult.

      Who was snubbed: I haven’t seen either of these, but thought In the Fade (which won the Golden Globe in this category) or Foxtrot (that trailer looks amazing) would sneak in here.

      Best Short Film – Live Action

      • ”DeKalb Elementary”
      • ”The Eleven O’Clock”
      • ”My Nephew Emmett”
      • ”The Silent Child”
      • ”Watu Wote/All Of Us”

      I’ve only seen “DeKalb Elementary,” which is superb, well-acted, and unfortunately very, very timely. I haven’t been able to find any of the other four online in any format.

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→ March 3, 2018
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Coco and this year’s animated shorts.

The 2017 slate of big studio animated movies was rather dismal, which I think is going to lead to an easy win for Coco, the best of the batch by any measure, especially since some of the best indie animated films didn’t even score nominations. Coco (available to rent/buy on amazon or iTunes) is genuinely very good, if not really at Peak Pixar levels; it’s better than the sequels Pixar has churned out recently, like Finding Dory and Monsters U., just not at the standard set by films like Up or WALL-E or the Toy Story trilogy.

(I suppose this disclaimer is barely necessary at this point, but just in case: I work for ESPN, which is owned by Disney, which owns Pixar, which made Coco.)

The protagonist of Coco is not actually Coco, but Miguel, a young Mexican boy who wants nothing more in life than to be a musician, but whose great-great-grandfather left his wife and very young daughter, Coco, to pursue his dreams in music. That has made the family extremely bitter towards music, to the point where Miguel has to hide his records and his homemade guitar from his parents and relatives, especially his grandmother, who is basically Nurse Ratchet in abuelita form.

Of course, he gets caught, runs away, and ends up crossing over the bridge to the netherworld where the mostly-dead spirits of the recently deceased reside in relative luxury … as long as someone alive still remembers them. On the Day of the Dead, the spirits can come back to visit their relatives as long as someone has put up their pictures on their ofrendas. Miguel can get back to the land of the living, but wants to do it in a way that doesn’t require him to surrender his dreams of becoming a musician, which leads him to chase down the man he thinks is his deceased great-great-grandfather, the underworld-famous musician Ernesto de la Cruz. (Spoiler alert: It’s not him, and God help you if you didn’t see that one coming.) So Miguel has to learn some important lessons about family, sing a song or two, and eventually get back to the living while also restoring a lost link to his family’s past.

Coco looks great, as all Pixar movies do, although I think since Brave they’ve kind of run up against a barrier of animation quality – Pixar films have blown me away visually so many times in the past that there isn’t much left for them to impress me with. This film is colorful and bright and very appealing, especially the spirit animals of the netherworld, but it’s also what we’ve come to expect from this studio. The story itself is just so-so, although there are plenty of sight gags and a bunch of references that will sail over younger readers’ heads but entertain the parents. (Bonus points for getting my daughter to ask me who Frida Kahlo was.) The setup never really worked for me – the loving parents who are so hellbent on denying Miguel any kind of music, not just saying he can’t pursue it as a career, but proscribing it as even a hobby. His grandmother destroys his handmade guitar, which just does not gibe at all with the rest of her character; no matter how mad you get, you don’t obliterate something your child made.

The best Pixar movies all have intricate plots that drop threads early in the film only to tie them all back together near the end. There are no throwaways in movies like The Incredibles or Toy Story – every detail ends up mattering in a big way. Not only is it satisfying in the moment to see a script recall something from an hour earlier, but it adds to the feeling that these are deep, three-dimensional films to be considered on par with live-action movies. If anything, most live action films would be lucky to bring scripts of the density and sophistication of great Pixar films. Coco isn’t one of these; there’s a single plot strand, established early and handled linearly, without much more. Even the complex structure of the netherworld where the skeleton-souls reside felt too familiar, with shots of the great hall and the stadium both recalling similar settings from Harry Potter films.

In a better year, with a better slate of nominees, I don’t think Coco would be deserving of the Best Animated Feature Oscar it’s going to win. It’s the best of the five nominees, and it’s hard for any other studio to match the sheer quality of the CG animation that comes from Pixar. If you go against them on animation, it has to be to choose something novel like the hand-painted cels of Loving Vincent or the visual style of The Breadwinner. (Let’s not even talk about The Boss Baby.) Tim Grierson and Will Leitch put this at #14 on their ranking of all 19 Pixar feature films, which amounts to dropping it behind all the good ones and ahead of all the mediocre-or-less ones. I can’t disagree.

* I’ve seen all five Best Animated Short Film nominees just in the last 72 hours, as they were all available somewhere for free: “Garden Party,” “Lou,” and “Negative Space” were all on YouTube, although at the moment two are gone; “Dear Basketball” is on Go90; and “Revolting Rhymes” is on Netflix. Of those, ”Revolting Rhymes” would be my pick, as it’s inventive, looks fantastic, and manages to develop some characters … but it’s also two episodes of about 28 minutes each, which exceeds the category’s length threshold, so I don’t know if voters have to consider just one of the two parts. It’s based on a Roald Dahl book of rhymes where he reworks some classic fairy tales to add some macabre twists and change the endings, all told here by a Big Bad Wolf (voiced by Dominic West). My daughter and I enjoyed it quite a bit, although I think she’d vote for “Lou” instead. That Pixar short brings the items in a school playground lost & found to life to teach the class bully a lesson. It’s cute and sweet and probably gets the nod on animation quality.

“Negative Space” is a stop-motion piece from Germany about a young man who is remembering how his father taught him his rather scientific method of packing a suitcase to maximize use of the space therein. It’s just five minutes, and there’s a twist that I think you’ll probably see coming. “Garden Party” also has a twist, and the animation of various tropical frogs taking over an apparently abandoned mansion is cool … but there isn’t really a story here.

And then there’s “Dear Basketball,” which I’m worried will win because it involves Kobe Bryant, even though it is clearly the worst of the five. Bryant penned a letter essentially thanking basketball for the huge, positive influence it has had on his life, which is fine, but not munch of a story. The animation looks like charcoal drawings, which is appealing, but ultimately there is just no there here. If it’s not pointless, the point isn’t very sharp. And that’s without considering the fact that Bryant was accused of rape and chose to pay his accuser to make the charges go away – not someone the Academy should want on its stage anyway, not this year of all years. If this were a truly great short film, maybe there’d be an argument for honoring it anyway, but it’s just not.

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→ March 3, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 3/3/18.

I’ve had one Insider post in the last week, this one on the MLB Draft, looking at Florida starters Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, as well as several other prospects from the Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Chris Crawford and I did an impromptu podcast previewing Sunday night’s Oscars, looking at about a dozen categories with our picks of who should win and our very-much-outsider guesses on who will win. It looks like a few hundred of you have already indulged us by listening and we both appreciate it.

Smart Baseball drops in paperback in just ten days! Buy copies or see more details on HarperCollins’ site.

And now, the links…

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→ March 2, 2018
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Faces Places.

Faces Places (original title Visages, Villages) is the last of the five nominees for Best Documentary Feature I had to see – I’ve also caught two of the Documentary Short nominees – and I could see an argument that it’s the best. It’s certainly unique among the nominees in that it’s not really about anything at all; the other four all tell stories, often with an eye on exposing or explaining something, but Faces Places is a slice of life in the truest sense of the phrase. It seems like the sort of thing you could never sell until you’d made it and could show a distributor what the finished product is, because the magic here is in the way the two leads interact on screen throughout the movie. You can buy it on Amazon or iTunes.

Agnes Varda is an 89-year-old grande dame of French cinema, a major figure in the New Wave of the 1950s, a friend of Godard, married to Jacques Demy for over 30 years. She and a photographer-artist named JR are the stars of the film, driving around villages in France, visiting friends or acquaintances, taking photos and blowing them up to paste on the sides of buildings, water towers, and train cars. Their interactions with each other – it’s such an unlikely friendship, but the affection is so obviously genuine that it’s truly moving – and with the various locals are the heart of the film. Some of the best moments are the reactions of the people whose photographs JR and Varda take and blow up, how they respond to seeing themselves portrayed in these giant posters. One becomes a mini-celebrity and finds she doesn’t like how people recognize her now as the woman on the side of the building. The wives of three workers at a port end up with their portraits on giant stacks of shipping containers (Frank Sobotka declined comment) and then sit inside their own images in the film’s most memorable shot. One describes feeling large and powerful; another hates feeling enclosed and so far off the ground. It’s peculiar to see how making someone two-dimensional brings out something different in their humanity, but that seems to be the trick of Varda & JR’s technique.

Varda is really the star of the film, though, and that was evident to me even though I was totally unfamiliar with her work or reputation before seeing this. Part of the connection probably came from how she reminded me of my maternal grandmother, who, like Varda, was short (I doubt my grandmother ever saw five feet, and was probably closer to 4’8” when she died at 100), had a raspy voice (she smoked for 75+ years), and kept her hair very short. Seeing Varda lean into JR – who seems pretty tall, although standing next to her makes him look like a giant – reminded me so much of how my grandmother would do the same with me once I was an adult, especially comforting her during moments of melancholy near the end of her life, that I felt an immediate empathy with the director from the movie’s start. When she does have a real moment of deep sadness near the end, the one thing that really happens in the movie, it got to me even though her grief in that scene was intensely personal to her.

Varda became the oldest person to receive an Oscar nomination in any non-honorary category with this year’s nod, and between that and her importance in the industry, Faces Places might be the sentimental favorite, if not the overall favorite, to win for Best Documentary Feature. (The nomination also led to an amusing scene when Varda declined to fly from France to Los Angeles for the nominees’ luncheon, so JR brought a few cardboard cutouts of Varda in her stead, and 2D Varda was a big hit.) Last Men in Aleppo is probably the best of the five for the importance of its subject matter, although I was surprised at how distant I felt from the tragedies on screen in that film. Icarus was the most gripping to watch, because it’s so incredibly bizarre how that filmmaker stumbled on the biggest doping scandal in sports history while trying to make a documentary about something else. If I had a ballot, which I don’t because the Academy just won’t return my calls, I’d probably vote for Icarus, but inside I’d hope Faces Places won anyway … even if cardboard Agnes is the one accepting the award.

* Four of the five nominees for Best Documentary Short are available to stream right now, and I’ve seen two, with a third downloaded to watch today or tomorrow. Knife Skills tells the story of Edwin’s, a Cleveland restaurant that hires people who’ve just been released from prison, training them over a period of several months, while serving classical French cuisine and earning rave reviews. The documentary follows the restaurant’s inaugural class of 120, which ends up whittled by more than half before the restaurant has been open three months, focusing on a few individual student-employees, mostly imprisoned for drug-related offenses, who will surprise you with how quickly they seem to take to and enjoy this grueling work. It’s also on iTunes and amazon.

Traffic Stop is on HBO’s streaming apps, and holy shit, is this a bad look for the Austin Police Department. A white cop pulls a black woman out of her car for speeding, throws her to the ground, beats her, threatens to tase her, and then tells the next officer to arrive that she resisted arrest … but it was all caught on his dash cam. Not only was he not fired for the incident, his superiors didn’t hear about it for over a year, by which point it was too late for them to suspend or fire him; he was just terminated a month ago for standing on a suspect’s head during another arrest. The documentary intersperses all of the dash cam footage with shots of the victim, Breaion King, talking about what it did to her life, and just about herself – she’s a math teacher who has worked in the community and has no criminal history whatsoever, but was targeted because she was black. The big reveal, though, is when a different cop, one who seems to be sympathetic to her, says that the problem is that black people have “violent tendencies” that lead white cops to assume the worst. I see no evidence anywhere that that officer has been disciplined in any way, and can only assume that he’s still out there, representing Austin’s finest.

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→ March 2, 2018
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Miami eats, 2018 edition.

I hadn’t spent any time in Miami since I went to the U to see Yasmani Grandal and Matt Harvey face each other back in 2010 – Grandal took him deep – but have now been there twice inside of nine months, for last year’s Futures Game and now to see the University of Florida’s two first-round pitchers pitch against the Canes.

The big novelty of the trip was the brand new St. Roch Food Market in the Design District just north of downtown, not far from Wynwood. This is the second St. Roch, with the original in New Orleans, and I believe this location has different vendors with the same concept – a 10,000 square foot open area with about a dozen different stalls along the walls, selling all kinds of food, including a salad stand, a noodle bar, a pasta/Italian stand, a Japanese stand with cooked and raw fish preparations, a coffee/tea bar, and a vegan bakery. You pay at each stand as you order, and at least in my case someone brought the food to my table since I was sitting nearby. I ate at the Japanese stand first, getting a seaweed salad and a grilled freshwater eel dish over rice with radishes and allegedly cucumbers (which were nowhere to be found). The vegan bakery is better than you’d expect, or than I expected, with an excellent shortbread-only version of a Linzer tarte called a ‘compassion cookie’ because they intend to donate a portion of the proceeds from its sale to animal shelters. The coffee stand uses Counter Culture beans and a high-end tea purveyor I hadn’t heard of. The whole concept is fantastic – it’s fresh food, mostly made to order, with great inputs – but on day one their execution was spotty. Another stand didn’t have one of its main proteins ready, and didn’t tell me until I’d paid and the order had gone to the cook. I’m hoping that was just Opening Day jitters.

I ate two meals down in Coral Gables, both above average. The Local is on the Miracle Mile pedestrian-only street, serving southern-inspired dishes, a lot of them takes on bar food, with an extensive cocktail list as well. Their cornmeal-crusted catfish was outstanding, perfectly crispy on the outside and hot enough that it had to have come right from the fryer; it’s served on a mild remoulade with hand-cut fries on the side that had probably been sitting a little while before I was served. They have about a half-dozen craft cocktails of impressive complexity as well.

Shelley’s is a very unassuming seafood bar very close to the Canes’ stadium, with maybe 2/3 of the menu items including fish or shellfish. I went with the server’s suggestions for both starter and main; the mofongo fritters were lighter than I expected, served with both a sugar cane compound butter and a clear garlic-chili sauce, while the rum-glazed scallops were perfectly cooked as well, but I thought the whole combination of scallops with house-cured ham and candied pecans overpowered the delicate flavor of the scallops themselves.

I mentioned Panther Coffee in my wrap-up last July, and went there twice on this trip, also grabbing a bag of beans from Finca La Illusion, a Nicaraguan farm, to bring home. I don’t know how long they’ll have it but it’s excellent, big bodied with some warm berry notes and a mild cocoa note too.

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→ March 1, 2018
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Music update, February 2018.

Lot of bigger names out this month with new music, some of which didn’t make the list here – I haven’t included either of the new CHVRCHES singles, because I think they’re the worst things the group has ever done; and I didn’t include the Weeknd & Kendrick Lamar’s “Pray for Me,” because it’s already in the top ten and I think it’s going to be among the biggest hits of the year. If you don’t see the widget below you can access the Spotify playlist here.

Janelle Monáe – Make Me Feel. It’s good to have The Fabulous Miss M. back on the music side of her multi-talented self, with this the stronger of the two singles she released this month to tease her upcoming album. There’s a lot of Nile Rodgers in here, and more than a little Prince, but also some unique twists like the chromatic descent in the bridge’s vocals (“with a little bit of tender”).

Sunflower Bean – Twentytwo. Twentytwo in Blue, the second LP from this New York indie-pop trio, is due out March 23rd. Their off-kilter approach masks melodies that seem to reflect every era of pop music back to the 1950s.

Frank Turner – 1933. I’m breaking one of my own rules against including two songs by one artist on the same playlist, but Turner put out two singles from his forthcoming album, both very different, and released them about a month apart anyway. This is more in line with Turner’s folk-punk output like much of Tape Deck Heart, with an ardently political, anti-fascist message (“don’t go mistaking your house burning down for the dawn”).

Speedy Ortiz – Lucky 88. I wasn’t sure if Sadie Dupuis’ solo effort (as Sad13) meant the end of Speedy Ortiz, but I’m thrilled the post-punk outfit is back for a third album, Twerp Verse, due out April 27th.

whenyoung – Pretty Pure. This Irish/British trio is poised to be a Next Big Indie Thing, because their music is good and they’re getting some more press attention too.

Cloves – Bringing The House Down. I believe this is the first new song from Cloves since last May’s “California Numb,” and I’m hopeful this means we’ll finally get a full-length album from the 22-year-old Australian singer with the haunting, beautiful voice behind 2015’s “Frail Love.” If you like Fiona Apple, Cloves should be your new crush. (And she’s mentioned loving Apple’s work, too.)

Kate Nash – Drink About You. Nash seems to have settled into a sort of mode of mock-serious pop songwriting – when she’s not acting as Rhonda Richardson/Britannica on the Netflix series GLOW — and is about to release her first album in five years, the crowdfunded Yesterday was Forever, due out March 30th.

Unknown Mortal Orchestra – American Guilt. Absolutely love the guitar riff that opens this song, which teases their album Sex and Food, due out April 6th.

Strange Names – UFO. The opening to this track reminds me of something specific from the 1980s that I can’t put my finger on – New Wave? Early hip-hop? – as if it were filtered through Tour de France-era Kraftwerk.

Django Django – Marble Skies. The title track and opener of Django Django’s latest album is one of the fastest-paced songs on the record, similar to “Tic Tac Toe,” and like the Strange Names song before this also recalls a lot of early 1980s New Wave.

Kid Astray – Joanne. This Norwegian sextet should be much more popular than they are – they’ve churned out a bunch of great singles with catchy, memorable hooks and sharp lyrics going back to 2013’s “The Mess” and 2015’s “Diver.” I assume this is a lead-in to a second album; their last LP was 2015’s Home Before the Dark, which included the two songs I just mentioned as well as “Cornerstone.”

Kero Kero Bonito – You Know How It Is. This garage-rock song is thoroughly out of character for the dance-pop trio, but I kind of love its Britpoppy vibe, which reminded me of Echobelly’s “Great Things.”

Twin Shadow – Saturdays (feat. HAIM). I’m not a HAIM fan at all, and have never been much for Twin Shadow’s solo work, but damn, this is a great pop song.

Belly – Shiny One. The first song in 23 years from Tanya Donnelly and company feels very close to the sound of their last album, 1995’s King, which had two modest hits in “Superconnected” and “Now They’ll Sleep.”

I’m With Her – I-89. A folk/Americana trio featuring Nickel Creek’s Sara Watkins, Crooked Still’s Aoife O’Donovan, and solo artist Sara Jarosz, their name seems to predate its usage as Hillary Clinton’s campaign slogan. The group has been releasing singles since 2015, but their first full-length album, See You Around, just came out on February 16th.

Frank Turner – Be More Kind. And here’s the second Turner song of the month, a gentle, acoustic folk track that speaks its mind in disarming fashion.

Courtney Barnett – Nameless, Faceless. Barnett’s kind of an automatic inclusion on my playlists – unless she’s working with Kurt Vile – and this seems like a return to form for her after that awful collaboration last year.

The Voodoo Children – Tangerines & Daffodils. I’d never heard of this duo, which apparently includes JT Daly (Paper Route), but this song brought me right back to the Von Bondies’ 2004 hit “C’mon C’mon.”

The Kenneths – Favourite Ex. Not quite as great as their 2015 single “Cool As You,” but the best song this punk-pop trio has put out since then. I do kind of wish they’d spent a bit more time on the lyrics, though.

Black Map – Let Me Out. Wikipedia calls these guys post-hardcore, but this is very much what mainstream metal sounded like in my formative years as a fan of the genre in the late 1980s, when thrash was king, before death metal forged a schism that sent many bands racing towards extremes like blast beats or trending backwards towards a more commercial sound.

Blitzkrieg – Forever Is a Long Time. Lyrics have never been a strength of Blitzkrieg leader Brian Ross, but I’ll at least give the aging rockers – whose song “Blitzkrieg” is a classic of the New Wave of British Heavy Metal and was famously covered by Metallica as a B-side on the “Creeping Death” single – credit for still being able to churn out a credible metal tune.

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→ March 1, 2018
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Klawchat 3/1/18.

Chris Crawford and I recorded a one-off show discussing this year’s Academy Awards, going through a dozen or so categories with who we think should win and who we think will win. Check it out if you’re at all movie-inclined.

Keith Law: Now I’ve lost the plot … Klawchat.

Pj: Syndergaard really has no comparables. In your opinion, what are the odds that he can stay healthy with his current arsenal (93 mph slider!) for 200 ip?
Keith Law: Lack of comparables is the real issue. He hasn’t had a serious arm injury so far, and he actually doesn’t seem to throw with that much effort given his velocity. 200 IP may not be the right milestone given usage patterns, but he’s gone 179.2 and 183 already; I see no reason he can’t do that regularly.

Frank: Who do you think wins the 4th outfield job in STL? Oneill, Bader, Garcia, or free agent yet to be signed?
Keith Law: Bader, I’d guess. Not sure signing an OF makes any sense at all for them.

Todd Boss: Fun question: I don’t believe we’ve yet had a player from the 2016 draft debut in the majors. Who is your pick for the first one to debut at this point?
Keith Law: Austin Hays debuted last year. I think he was the first … but of guys who haven’t debuted so far, I’d guess Puk or Senzel for the next one.

Damian: Hi Keith. Realistically eta for an everyday middle infield of Tatis Jr and Urias? Also, over/under average 3 WAR for Hosmer in his first 5 years?
Keith Law: Under for Hosmer. Tatis may still move off SS; I’ve called that an even money proposition, which I think is more optimistic than the industry consensus (which is that he’s going to get so big he’ll move to 3b or RF). I think Urias debuts this August or so. Tatis more likely 2019.

Perplexed: Need your help…I love reading a writer’s baseball analysis, but every chat he gets off topic and his heart bleeds all over my screen and I end up having to replace it. Your advice?
Keith Law: Seems like this is your own fault. You should make better decisions.

Florida Project for Best Pic: How do we get the Braves to flip-flop Albies and Gohara’s diets?
Keith Law: Ironically, they’re both pretty big drinkers. That would be my bigger concern.

Dan: Your fellow coffee connoisseur and baseball junkie, Andy Baggarly, wrote a great article on Chris Stratton’s curveball and the amazing spin rate he generates on it. Not sure if it really means it’s a great pitch or not, but regardless, do you see Chris Stratton pitching like a solid 4/5? Is there enough stuff, control, command in that arm?
Keith Law: I’ll check that piece out. He had a tremendous slider in college at Miss St, but his arm speed dropped off after he signed and hasn’t really come back. A 5, sure, a 4, maaaaaybe.

Jake Burger: Does this adversely affect my ability to stick at third?
Keith Law: TBD. Either you’ll have no loss in mobility at all, in which case you’re still a work in progress, or you’ll lose some mobility and then you’ll have to go to first. I don’t think there’s an in between here. But we won’t know anything till you’re back. (Get well soon.)

Jay: Over/under 10 pitchers on your top 100 list to succumb to TJ this year? One and counting.
Keith Law: Under. I’ll go with 7.5 as my o/u line.

Jay: Thoughts on the whole Acuna wearing his cap sideways thing?
Keith Law: MLB needs to stop asking Latin players to act less Latin. This is fucking stupid – show up on time, play hard, I don’t care if you wear your pants backwards like Kris Kross.

The Sloth: Upside for Alex Speas if he can ever locate?
Keith Law: It’s #1 stuff and athleticism but I don’t think there’s even a 5% chance of this.

Perry O. Dontist: You’ve traditionally given little value to relievers as prospects. I understand your thinking on that point, but as the relief role seems to be evolving, if a club tried to develop an ‘Andrew Miller type’ reliever (and he had success) would you think more highly of him as a prospect than you ordinarily would any minor league reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, if said pitcher showed he could handle the greater workload in fewer games (50 G 100 IP, not 65 G 70 IP).

G Dubya: What are your thoughts on the Twins signing Logan Morrison instead of another starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Solid value for them, gives them OBP they could use. Not sure it’s “instead” given the cost.

Dunkin’ Donuts: What is the chance Braves OF prospect Drew Waters becomes a star player?
Keith Law: Very low.

Perry O. Dontist: Thoughts on Mike Jeffcoat’s email?
Keith Law: For readers who missed it, the Texas Wesleyan coach emailed a potential recruit from Colorado and said he doesn’t take HS players from that state because too many of them test positive for weed – pro tip, stop testing for weed, it’s irrelevant to baseball and mostly harmless – and then made a crack about blaming “liberal” politicians. (Drug decriminalization isn’t liberal so much as libertarian; it has the conservative angle of decreasing government resources spent chasing, prosecuting, and imprisoning weed offenders, while also generating revenues from a new sin tax.) The school has already said it was inappropriate and they seem to be taking corrective actions. That said, if any coach is dumb enough to say he’s ignoring an entire state – not Alaska – then it’ll show in the standings, won’t it?

dave: I asked about this last week. What’s the opposition to requiring a pitcher to face two batters to improve pace of play?
Keith Law: Basically kills off specialist relievers. And with most players showing modest platoon splits, you might end up with so many unfavorable matchups for the team in the field that the gains are cancelled out by more men on base. (That’s speculation.) I’d prefer cutting time between pitching changes myself.

Lyle: Given how empty the cupboard is, if the Mariners don’t manage to pull off a playoff berth this year as the Cano-Cruz-Felix era winds down, how long will it realistically be before they can come up with a playoff berth in the future? 5 years? 7? 10? 50?
Keith Law: I think Houston has shown what you can do in 5 years if you tear it all down to the studs.

CB: What person who should already have been shown the door will cost the Angels more wins this year: Mike Scioscia or Albert Pujols?
Keith Law: Pujols.

Andy: How much of a mental Rolodex do you have of players? If I ask something about Ben Rortvedt or Austin Gomber (to pick two random nowhere near top 100 guys) do you know exactly about them, or do you have to go to a spreadsheet to find your notes on them?
Keith Law: I know those guys offhand, but I don’t know every player you might throw at me; I could probably answer you on a few hundred guys in the minors, then right now maybe 40-50 guys in this year’s draft class. I don’t use a spreadsheet, though. Too hard to read quickly.

Andy: When you read to your daughter with voices do you just resort to the accents/characterizations from the movie? I have a hard time remembering the voice for a character if it’s different than the movie accent.
Keith Law: Yep. My Snape wasn’t very good but I was very proud of my Dumbledore and my Dobby.

Archie: What do you think of Mike Krukow’s idea to shorten between inning breaks and recoup the advertising money lost by putting small ad patches on the player uniforms?
Keith Law: I’m really OK with that. I’m fine with ads on the screen between pitches or at bats too. I would think advertisers would prefer that because viewers aren’t walking away or distracted.

Erwin: What do you think of Nander de Sedas? Top 10 pick, stay at short?
Keith Law: Maybe top 10 pick, definitely first round, stays at short.

Ramon Neopolitano III: Hey Keith- lately, I’ve seen tons of media and fans act as if Manny Machado to the Yankees is a done deal already. While I do think they’re probably the favorites to sign him, why do we have articles (USA Today) implying it’s a foregone conclusion? Aren’t the White Sox and Phillies expected to go hard after him, too?
Keith Law: You can pretty well ignore anything that calls a free agent signing with a certain team a foregone conclusion eight months before they can even file. That’s clickbait.

KOK: Have you cooked anything interesting Sous Vide recently?
Keith Law: Have made duck a few times that way – so much easier to get a duck breast perfectly medium-rare sous vide.

Karl: Is there any sort of service you’re aware of that allows someone to test/rent board games without buying? I’m intrigued by some that you talk about but am wary of putting down a lot of money for them without knowing if I’d like them.
Keith Law: A lot of cities have board game cafes where you can go play stuff for a small fee or for the cost of food & drink. Also, conventions like Gen Con or PAX Unplugged charge admission but then there’s lots of open gaming.

Kevin: Any more insight on what substance Whitley was using? How much effect would this suspension have on his Top 100 ranking if you were to rank again?
Keith Law: Zero effect.

JJ: I know you’re not really a football guy, but I thought you’d enjoy this quote from new Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden, on using the team’s analytics department: “I’m trying to throw the game back to 1998. I’m not going to rely on modern technology. I will certainly have some people that are professional that can help me from that regard. But I still think doing things the old fashioned way is a good way.”
Keith Law: Good for him. I never liked the Raiders anyway.

Josh: Just spent a week in Scottsdale and your food guide was indispensable. How much does Whitley’s suspension hurt his development?
Keith Law: I don’t think it hurts much at all, because he wasn’t going to throw 160 innings or pitch six full months anyway. Maybe he loses four or five starts he would have otherwise made.

Grant: Alice in Chains or Pearl Jam?
Keith Law: Peak AiC. But the current incarnation is not good.

Nolan W: How much do you buy into framing metrics in their current form, specifically how the data is being translated to runs/WAR? In my judgment, the raw data captured by these metrics is generally in very close alignment with what the eye test tells us in terms of identifying good receivers vs bad ones. At the same time, it’s a little jarring to see Baseball Prospectus slap a 6 WAR on Tyler Flowers largely on the strength of superb framing stats.
Keith Law: Teams seem to think this is at least directionally correct. I do wonder if a player whose framing was worth, say, 3 WAR in one year is also likely to come back down towards the average pretty hard the next year. We don’t have a ton of framing data but there seems to be a lot of year to year volatility in it, implying that while it is a skill, there’s also some randomness involved too.

Derek: The two most coveted position players in baseball are a SS that can hit and a C that can hit (we seem to have a number of the former these days but not as many of the latter). What was the scouting report on Bryce Harper as an amateur C? Could he have been a 40 defender there? Assuming his bat would have developed the same way (maybe an implausible assumption), that’s probably more valuable than what he is in RF. Did the Nats make a mistake moving him off C?
Keith Law: Could have been a 50-60 defender back there. At least a 70 arm in practice, 80 arm strength. Hell of an athlete, of course. Liked doing it too. But you’d lose 30 games a year guaranteed, and if he’s had injury trouble in the outfield, it probably would have been worse at C.

Greg: What’s your take on the slow free agent market? Just a function of circumstances or are the owners up to no good? I admit to being a bit suspicious but I obviously have nothing concrete with which to back that up.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s collusion. I think it was a weak market, overstuffed with players without homes – 1b/dh/lf types, mostly LHB – combined with a general philosophy against long-term contracts for hitters in their 30s or pitchers at all.

The Sloth: How big of an upside does Basabe (Luis Alexander of Chicago) possess? Is 20/20 a possible best case scenario?
Keith Law: Sure. I think he could be an above average regular if healthy.

Keith Kristol: You’ll be on the frontlines for the inevitable U.S. intervention in Syria, right? You definitely should be considering you’ve been peddling disgusting regime change propoganda. Remember the gas attack the “moderate” rebels were responsible for in 2013? Maybe you should consider that when these obviously false reports about Assad “gassing his own people” come out. Or you could actually find news sources outside of Netflix documentaries, Teen Vogue, and WaPo. Seriously, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Keith Law: You seem unwell. Or unhinged. By the way, from Amnesty International, on Syria buying materials to manufacture chemical weapons from North Korea: “But to help the Syrian government – which has repeatedly used chemical weapons against civilians – replenish its supplies would be a particularly egregious betrayal of humanity.” Or look at the state’s sieges of its own cities/regions like Ghouta, Raqqa, Aleppo. Hundreds of dissidents forcibly ‘disappeared.’ Assad’s longtime support of Hezbollah and other terrorist movements. I’m not sure who you think you’re defending here … or what you think I’ve even supported, other than writing about the two excellent documentaries on the crisis, Last Men in Aleppo (Oscar nominated) and City of Ghosts.

Bret: There’s been a lot of talk in Toronto about the Blue Jays using Danny Jansen as the backup to Russell Martin for much of this season — maybe not out of the gate, but perhaps from the middle of the season onwards. What kind of impact would that have on Jansen’s development?
Keith Law: Might help him if he gets to work more with the major league coaching and pitching staff. I think he can hit, and he’s not that young. But he needs a lot of work on receiving & working with pitchers.

JR: The best news in spring training is no news right? You don’t want to see your favorite team/players in any reports – just routine, injury free spring training.
Keith Law: Yep. I ignore most ST news, but injuries are tangible and at this time of year often really bad.

Jake: New college baseball fan here. Going to the University of MN baseball tournament this weekend. AZ, WA, and UCLA are the other teams participating. Any players from those teams worth paying close attention to?
Keith Law: Joe Demers at UW is a prospect. Arizona and UCLA are as bad as I can remember them being. And ASU is worse. (You didn’t ask, I just had to point that out.)
Keith Law: The best college baseball prospect in the state of Arizona isn’t at Arizona or ASU (Wong at Grand Canyon). How wrong does that sound?

BJinIndiana: First–finally bought Smart Baseball and loved it. I dislike dust jackets though, so I was very pleasantly surprised to see the green/brown colors underneath.
Keith Law: I wish I could take credit. Glad you liked it, though!

Tommy: Between Garver and Haase, who has more ability to stick and hit with some pop?
Keith Law: Haase I think has more everyday potential than Garver. Both big league backups at least.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think there’s any way that Kelenic moves up enough for the Tigers to consider him 1-1?
Keith Law: I’d be truly shocked.

Sadie: Dbacks should blow it up after this year , correct ? Especially if Goldy walks
Keith Law: They have a $14.5 million option on him for 2019, which they will exercise. Very much worth exploring a trade for him and Greinke after this season, though. They could get a tremendous return, and clear some money to add elsewhere, without blowing the entire team up – they have some solid young pieces with a few years of control left. If they extend Goldschmidt, though, they might still trade Greinke to get rid of the contract but keep everything else intact.

Josh: Likelihood of the following outcomes for Lincecum (assuming he’s a RP only): 1) totally ineffective, washes out quickly 2) sticks around but isn’t very good, 3) adds some value as a middle reliever, 4) excels and becomes a closer/relief ace
Keith Law: I think 2 is most likely.

silvpak: given austin barnes’ elbow twinge this spring, utley’s advanced age, kelbert ruiz and will smith on the horizon, and forsythe coming to the end of his deal, what’s the likelihood LAD will, as the season progresses, start getting barnes more 2b experience? i have visions of craig biggio dancing in my head.
Keith Law: He has over 1400 innings at 2b in pro ball, so I don’t think he needs experience there. I do think they’ll turn to him if they have a need in-season at 2b or 3b.

Sally Fan: Would you send Juan Soto back to Hagerstown for the start of 2018, given his relatively short season there (he’d still be young for the league) or send him to Potomac?
Keith Law: I’d probably bump him up to Potomac. Hagerstown isn’t a great stadium or town anyway.

Nic: Chatting on Purim-I like this. Do you think the yankees are still the number 2 farm system after the drury trade?
Keith Law: It’s Purim? I had no clue. I should have made hamantashen. Yes, I do. They gave up two fairly minor prospects.

Fastball Velocity: How do I disappear from specific players? For example, Kolby Allard. Why has his velocity decreased so much in just one calendar year? You’ve mentioned his frame, but are there any other reasons?
Keith Law: Guys wear down, get hurt, lose muscle over the long season. Allard may just not have the stamina to be a good 180-inning starter. I love his upside if he shows this was just a one-year blip, though.

Tommy Pacu: Moncada recently: 0-3 on 7 pitches with two strikeouts. Is his swing and miss a big concern for Sox fans?
Keith Law: It is a big concern, yes.

Vince: Keith, who are some guys you’ll be watching in the Carolina League this year that weren’t there last year?
Keith Law: Ask me when we have rosters in April. I don’t really even think about that stuff until spring training ends.

Sadie: Do you like sausage or bacon more ? Hasbrown or home fries ?
Keith Law: Bacon. Hashbrowns. But I like all of these.

Tom: Keith, if they wanted to, could the Orioles even give away Davis or Trumbo, or do both have negative value?
Keith Law: Doubt you could give away Davis’s contract. Trumbo’s maybe but for no return.

Scouting: How hard is it to learn how to scout players? I’d like to dabble in it a little bit for fun, and I’d like to know where to start. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think you can dabble in this, sorry. So much of scouting is about building up a mental database of players over the course of years of doing it. It’s why I don’t read or refer to many blogs that try to do scouting reports; you can’t just buy a radar gun and go to a game and know how to scout.

Scott from FLA. Cubs fan: National League West and Central loaded, and Mets get to play Marlins Braves and Phillies A LOT. Huge advantage—- Disparity for Wild Card??
Keith Law: Yes, but first the Mets have to be good (healthy) enough to take advantage of this.

Matt: So Russia has a video of nukes headed towards Florida and Trump refuses to acknowledge sanctions let alone a possible nuclear attack. At what point does the GOP come to terms that our president is a danger to America?
Keith Law: The BBC podcast The Inquiry looked at the 2017 cyberattack on Ukraine that eventually affected over 60 countries, and the indirect evidence that Russia was behind it. It shut down hospitals and other critical systems here in the US. You’d think we’d do something about that, since it cost American businesses real money. (It’s their most recent episode, and that podcast in general is one of my favorites. One topic, 23-24 minutes, with four experts discussing it in turn.)

Charlie: I honestly think you should give this season of Top Chef a try. There has been some fantastic cooking recently and it’s the funniest group of chefs in a long time. I can’t defend the Logan Paul choice as a guest judge early on, but you mentioned you heard nachos was a winning dish. It was actually the losing dish in an admittedly weak tailgate challenge.
Keith Law: I’m not going back to start it now. Season’s starting, and plenty of other good stuff to watch. Unsolved episode one was fantastic.

David (VZLA): You’re Cashman…. Andujar or Drury to start the season?
Keith Law: Andujar starts, Drury on the roster of course.

John: Whats do you think is the bigger hold up for good middle of the rotation options line Lynn and Cobb, dollars or years?
Keith Law: Lynn has a pick attached, right? I think that’s a killer for guys left out there. Years probably a secondary factor.

Larry: Thoughts on unions? I agree whole heartedly with their purpose, but I also think they can be too powerful. I have a friend that missed 3 weeks of work without calling in, got “fired,” and he says he can’t be fired because he’s in the union. Sure enough two days later he got his job back. That’s pretty frustrating from my point of view and I hate that they have that much power. But the general purpose is great.
Keith Law: Unions also tend to raise costs to the end consumers, too. But if you had no unions, the balance would tip heavily in favor of capital (ownership). And they already have the money to beat you in court.

Craig: Who do you think wins the 3rd SD OF Job? Let the lottery ticket Franchy go for it and see if the tools translate?
Keith Law: Would love to see that.

John: After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Up and down guy at best.

Tony: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you’ve commented that the Pirates player development system hasn’t had success in changing swing angles to increase power. I read comments from the Pirates that they hoped with an adjustment to Bryan Reynolds’ swing angle his power would begin to play and he’d fulfill his potential. Question: do you think such a project is generally feasible and, in this specific instance, how high is Reynolds ceiling if he is able to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: I think it’s feasible for guys who already have some feel to hit and some natural power. I would love to get a time machine and try this with Ryan Sweeney, the best 5 o’clock power hitter I ever saw (who couldn’t do it in games, obviously).

Greyson: Have you heard any buzz on Tyler Kolek? Is he back near 100 or are those days over?
Keith Law: Check his stats from last year. If he’s 100, it’s to the backstop now.

Stu: The Reds are trying Senzel at SS… chance he sticks?
Keith Law: I think nearly zero.

Brian: A national reporter quoted a scout today saying that JP Crawford isn’t a good defender. How can any scout possibly think that?
Keith Law: No clue. Some scouts don’t like the way he plays – I’ve heard that on Brendan Rodgers too – and that may be coloring that one guy’s opinion on JPC. I think Crawford might be a 70 defender if he works at it.

Jack: Thoughts on Jose Israel Garcia? I’m falling in love with the tools from what I’m reading, but it’s so hard to find any video on the guy.
Keith Law: Everything i have on him is in the ‘just missed’ column. I’ve never seen the guy – almost no one has outside of a few teams who scouted him last June.

JM: Album yet to be released that you are most anticipating?
Keith Law: Courtney Barnett, Frank Turner, Speedy Ortiz.

Tye: Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?
Keith Law: How am I low on him? He’s a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don’t think he’s more than a 4.

Sean: I had a discussion with a co-worker about pitching injuries. My co-worker tried to make the case that the pitchers of old were more durable than today’s pitchers because of innings/pitch limits imposed today. I know this a preposterous claim, but I want to find a better way to illustrate to him that this not the case than just stating that reserve clause age pitchers were less incentivized to report injuries than today’s pitchers. Do you have area I can look to for greater knowledge on the issue?
Keith Law: They also didn’t throw anywhere near as hard as today’s pitchers. I think the average fastball velocity has been creeping up steadily for about 20 years now.

Chris : Knowing how much you love Chvrches but how you’re not a fan of Matt Berninger’s voice, how torn were you on whether to like the new Chvrches single featuring him?
Keith Law: I wasn’t torn at all. It’s terrible. So is “Get Out.”

Brian: I want to follow up on a question I asked last week: while most saw Mickey Moniak as a below dollar sign in a weak draft. But almost every draft analyst seemed to agree w/the Phillies that he had a good hit tool. That seems to have been exposed an incorrect., So what I’m wondering is how a consensus like that develops that’s incorrect? Is it something about what scouts saw or is it related to projecting how a guy will hit better pitching?
Keith Law: Scouts saw him hit well against good pitching as an amateur. I don’t know that I’d say it’s “incorrect;” you’d have to give him another year before going that far. I’d say that his hit tool isn’t as advanced today (present tool) as we thought. He might still hit.

Adam Doctolero: I find the research that has been done regarding the juiced baseballs to be fascinating and pretty damning for MLB, but I have a hard time reconciling that with their obsession with shorter games. Is MLB really dumb enough to not recognize that more offense leads to longer games, or are they just trying to have their hot fruit and eat it too?
Keith Law: Probably the latter. They’d love three-hour games with lots of homers. I guess you could do that with a giant strike zone?

Noah: Nats’ Jefry Rodroguez a prospect for you?
Keith Law: Saw him right before the suspension. A prospect, not an elite one.

Tom: So why are we fighting about ideas to stop school shootings? Lets do a bunch of stuff, stricter gun laws, armed security guards at schools, stronger security measures in schools, why is it always just one idea against another instead of a compromise where we put pieces of everyones thoughts together?
Keith Law: I can say for myself that a lot of the proposals for “stronger security measures” are going to be very expensive and produce very little benefit. (Some such measures, like metal detectors, just create new soft targets because they slow entry and crowds build up outside the building.) I want safer schools; I don’t want our governments spending a billion or so dollars on measures that won’t work.

Oscar: Debating getting a French Press or Pour Over for my office? Where do you fall? Any particular models you recommend?
Keith Law: Pour-over takes more time, but makes better coffee. I have a Hario, which was maybe $24.

Andy: Ken Griffey Jr also used to disrespect the game, by wearing his hat backwards.
Keith Law: Yes he did. So disrespectful.

Jim Nantz: Lincecum as a closer intrigues me if he’s actually throwing 90-93 as reports have suggested. Think he’s got anything left?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not impossible. Let’s see how hard he’s throwing when he throws three times in four games.

Scott: Please help me settle an argument with a friend. Does momentum exist in baseball? I cite the Sela and Simonoff study, but he showed me that Bill James believes it is possible it exists. What is your view?
Keith Law: It does not exist. Someone believing a thing is possible does not make it possible. (And your friend used a classic appeal to authority. “Keith Law believes it does not exist” isn’t a good argument either. Instead, tell him to show you evidence that this invisible, important thing is actually real.)

Craig: Where will Rodgers End up for the Rockies? Is he good enough to push Story out or is the more realistic thing to do is to move to second and move DJ?
Keith Law: I think the odds of Rodgers going to 2b or 3b are increasing.

Sandy Kazmir: How soon do you think we’ll see teams turning away from strikeout-prone hitters?
Keith Law: I believe some teams are already hunting for those guys – not just in the majors, but in the draft too.

Mike: Re: Acuna. I don’t think anyone can say they didn’t love watching the DR and PR play in the WBC last year. Watching Baez, Lindor, and Correa was so much fun every game.
Keith Law: If you didn’t love watching those dudes, you probably should go watch golf.

Rick Giolito: Keith, I went to all SS pans from Anodized but I’m having trouble keeping food from sticking. Help!
Keith Law: Stainless steel? I would guess you need to use more fat when cooking. Anodized is truly nonstick. Stainless steel is not nonstick – it’s great for searing or browning foods where you intend to use the brown bits left on the pan (fond) by deglazing.

Smith: What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

Matt: Schilling is a Parkland truther. WTF happened to him? Was he always that crazy?
Keith Law: No. I wouldn’t have been able to work with him if he were a hoaxer – I remember him specifically saying in the green room that he thought Alex Jones’ Sandy Hook hoaxerism was reprehensible. Now … I wasn’t going to let this shit affect my Hall ballot, but I think he just obliterated my principles.

Andy: Andrew Miller was also the top college pitching prospect and a top 10 draft pick, who failed at starting. So what teams need to do to develop the next “Andrew Miller type” is to have starting pitchers who have big stuff but may lack the control or enough pitches to last 6 innings.
Keith Law: Or the durability to go 180-200. This is something I’ve said about McCullers, and Fulmer, and Severino (who more than held up last year).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: The cooked hat things kills me. It has nothing to do with the player’s national origin. It’s like a crooked painting hanging on the wall. I have the overwhelming urge to run onto the field and straighten Strop’s or Rodney’s hat.
Keith Law: OK but that’s your OCD, no? (I’m a little bit the same way myself.)

Steve: A healthy Blake Swihart that can catch ~50 games, play 2B and some OF would be a wildly valuable guy if he’s average defensively, right? Chances he puts up a 2 win year?
Keith Law: Yep. I’m a big Swihart fan. If he’s healthy, and throwing fine, then I’ll bet on him going over 2 WAR.

Greg: Random question, have you tried an escape room? If so thoughts?
Keith Law: Only in board game form.

Kris: When reporters say IFAs are “linked” to a team does that almost guarantee that the player will sign with the linked team?
Keith Law: Yes. They have an oral agreement in place. This is illegal and happens all the time.

ScottyG: I know they shouldn’t, but WILL the Rays trade Archer this spring? If so, do the Cardinals have what it takes to make this happen? Archer/Martinez/Reyes has a nice ring to it….
Keith Law: At this point, I wouldn’t drop my price if I were the Rays. Try again in July.

Tommy Pacu: Hey – Alaskan here! Jeez, no love for the biggest state? Curious as to your thoughts on competition level of Alaska summer league. Lots of big names cycled through in the past but you never mention the league… is it relevant prospect wise these days?
Keith Law: Not any more, sadly. Would love to go scout there, though!

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, got any new metal to recommend?
Keith Law: The new Tribulation album is incredible.

ML: You think Tatis, Guerrero, or Bichette could make his MLB debut this season?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no for each of them.

Tom: Does Ryan Vilade have the talent to be a top 100 prospect someday? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jamal: Another way to test out board games is to check out your local library as they are increasingly available to rent.
Keith Law: That I have not seen, although my local branch does host a game night every month.

Todd Boss: Texas Wesleyan went ahead and fired that coach: http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22615612/texas-wesleyan-…
Keith Law: And there you go. I had a feeling they might, but I don’t know that this was truly a firing offense. It’s not comparable to saying you wouldn’t recruit a Muslim or black or gay player.

Dave: You seem to think pretty highly of Luis Medina given his “sleeper” status. Do you think he’ll have starter control/command as he matures?
Keith Law: I do. Hoping to see him this year at some point.

Humor me: In high school, I ran a 3.99 as a lefty from home to first. On the 20-80 scale, what is grade is that for speed?
Keith Law: About a 70.

ML: You a Denilson Lamet believer? #2 potential?
Keith Law: No. LHB killed him last year.

Tim : Do you think Tim Beckham has finally figured it out? Big league regular?
Keith Law: Great for two weeks after the trade, then back to normal.

MSS: Healthy lunches to eat in the office that aren’t salad?
Keith Law: I eat yogurt with granola and fruit for lunch almost every day.

Steve: I know your lukewarm on Sixto, but if he were to continue his path to potential of being an “ace” as some other scouts have claimed, what would you want to see from him this year?
Keith Law: I am not lukewarm on him. That’s just ridiculous – look where I ranked the kid.

Sandy Kazmir: Are you of the opinion that it is more likely that a good contact batter can add power than a good power hitter can add contact or is it too much of an individual thing to generalize like this?
Keith Law: You’re probably right that it’s too individual, but I’ll play along and pick the former over the latter.

Kwame : Is there a data driven way to determine how much managers help or hurt a team? Is this something teams do in some way? I think we all know managing a bullpen, not bunting etc helps but is there a way to rank managers?
Keith Law: I would bet teams track some of that stuff in ways we don’t/can’t.

Jesse: What are your thoughts on the legacy game format in general? As much as I love the concept, I’m still put off by the idea that I can’t replay the game through once it’s done. Plus I would think it tanks resale value.
Keith Law: Charterstone has a recharge pack you can buy to start over on the second side, and then you can continue to play it more without the story part. That’s part of its brilliance.

Todd Boss: Keith Kristol’s “question” reminds me of the quote from the Howard Stern movie, when the program director (when told that people who hated Stern listened longer than his fans), said, “If they hate him … why do they listen?”

If they hate you keith … why are they asking you questions and reading your content?
Keith Law: I will never, ever understand that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Just a tip, here are three things you aren’t changing very many people’s minds on: politics, religion, sexual orientation. Just a tip from your friendly Blue Eye.
Keith Law: You’ll notice I don’t discuss religion … pretty much ever.

Dan: Any Southeast PA prospects to go watch? Sianni, Helverson, Guilbe, Kelchner?
Keith Law: Siani for me – he’s probably the only one I’ll go see.

Craig: Ohtani is a bust! Look at his spring training stats. Only kidding but did you see or learn anything from watching him pitch that you didnt know?
Keith Law: I didn’t watch. I’ll go see him when I’m there – watching two tune-up innings from the CF camera isn’t going to show me anything.

Anon: My doctor has talked to me about taking Lexapro for general anxiety. While I’d appreciate the relief, I’m worried about how much of my identity would be affected. I’ve dealt with anxiety all my life and worry that who I am as a person might change. From your experience did you feel like you “changed” when you started medication?
Keith Law: I did change, but only for the better. Hit me up offline if you have more questions – I took it for five years.

JJ: Did you make a “Best Picture” pick for this year, or do I have to listen to the podcast you mentioned at the top of the chat?
Keith Law: You can listen to that or wait for a post here on Sunday.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: For the people crying about divisions–Central has Pirates and Reds; $100 says Phillies and Braves are better than both.
Keith Law: Probably true, although I wouldn’t sleep on the Reds’ pitching. Their bullpen could be tremendous.

Jeremy: When are you headed to Phoenix or Florida this year?
Keith Law: Phoenix first, but possibly detouring to Florida for a day to see a HS player, then Florida the 21-27 (I’m boxed in on both ends for that trip).

Paul: Do you think any of the remaining top free agents misses a significant amount of games from being unsigned?
Keith Law: It’s inevitable, I think.

Jack: Do you ever encounter really talented players that just don’t give a shit? I coach high school soccer and have a kid who could play professionally but he’d rather party. It’s so aggravating to see someone waste their potential.
Keith Law: Yep. Donavan Tate comes to mind.

Dr. Bob: Could changing the launch angle of a hitter without natural power just turn bloop hits into fly outs? Launch angle is not the answer by itself, is it?
Keith Law: No, it’s not. You’d better hit the ball hard first, and then work on launch angle.
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, sorry I’m missing so many more of your questions but I ran over to try to get to more. I’ll be at Auburn tomorrow night, weather permitting on both ends of the trip, so if you’re there feel free to say hi. Thank you as always for reading and chatting!

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→ February 27, 2018
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Abalone.

Abalone is an abstract two-player game from 1987 that looks a bit like Chinese checkers but plays with much more complexity thanks to a short list of very narrowly defined potential moves. It got a digital release late in 2017 from Asmodee Digital that offers a variety of starting boards and has a mostly superb interface, although they might need a harder AI player for a future update. It’s available on iTunes and Google Play for $2.99.

Abalone is played on the central, shared area of a Chinese checkers board, a hexagon with nine rows ranging from five spaces on the exterior to nine spaces in the center row. Each player begins with 14 marbles, black or white, and must try to push six of the opposing player’s marbles off the board to win. The potential moves are:

1. You can move one marble one space in any direction, as long as the space is empty.
2. You can move two or three marbles in a line forward, as a unit, one space. If the next space has an opposing marble in it, but your group has more marbles than there are opposing marbles in the same row, then you can push them one space backwards. So you can move two marbles, one behind the other, to push a solitary opposing marble into an empty space beyond it, and you can move three marbles in a line to push two opposing marbles.
3. You can move two or three adjacent marbles on the perpendicular, rather than moving them in a line (moving them like you’re sweeping them with your hand), but can’t push any opposing marbles that way.

The game requires players to consider offense and defense; setting traps is a huge part of Abalone, and avoiding them by setting up lines of three marbles when you can is just as important, but with 14 marbles (a number that will decline as the game progresses), that’s not easy to do. You have to watch the edges to make sure you don’t lose sight of a marble that’s in danger of being pushed off the board on the next turn.

The easy AI player is really just a tutorial/newbie opponent, while the hard player is good but I think a bit too beatable. The hardest AI will take advantage of pieces on the edge, but its trap-setting capabilities are a little weak, and I have seen it fail to take the occasional risk-free ejection. (Sometimes you can eject an opponent’s marble, but doing so always puts your marble in the vacated space, and thus you might be giving your opponent an easy push.) I’ve lost to the hard AI player, but I beat it more often than I lose, needing as few as 63 moves to win and as many as 199.


The nicest starting arrangement in Abalone.

The app comes with more than 30 starting boards; some players think the official, classic board is “solved,” or at least confers too much of an advantage to the start player, although given the sheer number of moves required, the game being “solved” would still require you to memorize a ridiculous number of steps. There’s also a chance of a stalemate, especially with the AI players, where both players end up repeating a loop of steps indefinitely, until one player chooses to make a more aggressive move instead. I do think the various “Daisy” boards – the app includes four – present a better challenge, reducing the chances of a temporary stalemate, and as I quickly learned, they also give the start player a great opportunity to do something very stupid at the beginning.

I’ve never been a huge fan of chess, because the game requires more study and more forward planning than I like in a game – it’s a serious intellectual challenge, but begins to feel more like work, and mapping out the potential scenarios creates a fairly large decision tree in my head. (I’m also not great at discarding moves – I think the best chess players can prune those trees because they know their opponents will make a specific move in response to each of their own moves.) Abalone has that chess-lite feel that I love in games – yes, there are lots of potential moves, but the tree is limited because you only have one piece type, and it’s definitely easier to figure out your opponent’s likely next move.


I won this game rather nicely.

The app is very easy to play even on the small screen, and lets you undo any move before confirming it. You can also see the last move with a rewind feature that’s very useful, and at game end it tells you how many moves the game took and replays the entire thing from the beginning. One minor quibble is that when you leave the app for a while, resuming a game requires you to enter the menu to start a new game and then hit the Pause button in the upper right, the only thing in the app that felt non-intuitive. The tutorial is also excellent.

Abalone was briefly on sale for 99 cents, and I imagine it will be again at some point; I’ve found it quite addictive even as I’ve gotten to be good enough to beat the AI more than half the time (which I interpret as a weak AI, not that I’m some skilled player). It offers a pass and play mode as well as networked play, which might be the better option if you’re looking for a more serious challenge instead of a minor brain teaser. I’ve gotten more than my money’s worth from it already.

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→ February 26, 2018
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Barrayar.

My latest post for Insiders covers draft prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, plus notes on some other players at Florida and Miami.

I came into Lois McMaster Bujold’s Vor novels out of order, starting with The Vor Game, then Mirror Dance, and just now getting to the second book in the series and the one that introduces the star character of Miles Vorkosigan, Barrayar. Miles starts the novel as an embryo and ends it as a troublemaking toddler, so he’s not a central character, but the story of how he ended up with the bone disorder that came to dictate much of the path of his life – along with his friendship with the Emperor – is at the heart of this quick, enjoyable novel.

The protagonist here is Miles’s mother, Lady Cordelia (Naismith) Vorkosigan, herself a soldier of sorts from Beta Colony, now married to Lord Aral Vorkosigan, her former enemy in battle, and living on the planet Barrayar. Aral has become regent on the death of the old Emperor, with the successor Georg still in single digits. A coup attempt ensues, driving the couple into exile, but leaving the still undeveloped fetus that will become Miles growing in a “uterine replicator” in the capital city, under guard, when they’re forced into hiding. The main thrust of the book revolves around Cordelia’s flight and daredevil attempt to infiltrate the city to grab the replicator and rescue the fetus whom Aral’s father has already promised to reject as his grandson.

This was the first of three Vor novels to win the Hugo – McMaster Bujold also won for a fantasy novel, Paladin of Souls, that didn’t grab me like these books have – and the only one that doesn’t have the rascal Miles at its heart. Without him to cause confusion and delay (and eventually save the day), the book is a lot less funny, and instead gives us the very serious Cordelia as its hero, with Aral present and supportive, but unusually willing for a Barrayaran husband to respect the wishes and opinions of his wife. Instead, it’s a straight adventure/rescue novel with a feminist bent – granted, that’s also quite unusual in the sci-fi world, but now that I’ve read all but 5 of the Hugo winners (and at least one by every author to win it), I feel confident in asserting that the winning books authored by women are both better overall and include better, more fully-realized female or non-male characters. It’s not even close.

Cordelia doesn’t get a lot of time to completely grow as a character in this brief book, which is quite a bit shorter than the other two Vor novels I’ve read, but she’s well-rounded from the start: Strong, assertive, self-doubting, acutely conscious of her outside status, completely dedicated to her family, struggling with fealty to her husband’s position in society and desire to have him safe at home. Reading this first would have probably given me more insight into her cameos in later novels; she’s obviously a critical influence on Miles’ development, but here we see exactly what she had to do to rescue him and to what lengths she was willing to go.

The book also introduced a number of characters who appear later in the series, although there’s one book before this one, Shards of Honor, that includes the battle where Aral and Cordelia meet, where I assume some of the other characters (Illyan, Kothari) also appear. I’ll probably start there now that I’ve read the winners in the series and go forward in chronological order. If you’re interested in reading just one or two of these books, though, I’d recommend something with Miles in it, because he’s much more fun than his parents.

Next up: I just finished the second Hugo winner, The Forever Machine, which lived up to its reputation as the worst novel to win the award.

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→ February 25, 2018
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The Girl Without Hands.

When the Oscar nominations were announced a few weeks ago, I tweeted an image showing all of the eligible films for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature, and showed that Boss Baby, which scored one of the nominations, wasn’t close to a top five film in the group in the estimation of critics. At that point, though, I hadn’t seen any of the films ranked above it (using Rotten Tomatoes scores, a crude measure but useful for our purposes here). I can now say I have seen one film that was eligible for the award, and was #BetterThanBossBaby: The Girl Without Hands (La jeune fille sans mains), a stunningly animated version of the Grimm Brothers folk tale about a girl … um, with no hands. It’s available to rent on iTunes and amazon.

The girl, never named, suffers for her father’s avarice; when the film starts, the impoverished miller strikes a deal with the devil to give him “what’s behind his mill” in exchange for wealth, not realizing that his daughter was in the apple tree behind the mill at that moment. Eventually, the man’s refusal to give up the river of gold that is now running his mill costs him everything, including his daughter, whose hands he lops off at the devil’s insistence. She flees, eventually finding a prince who marries her, only to have the devil reappear and try once again to claim her for his part of the original bargain.

This adaptation, first released in France in 2016, was entirely written, directed, and animated by Sébastien Laudenbach, marking his first feature film. The animation style is like nothing I’ve seen before in an animated feature – the outlines of characters and objects are rough, and the colored portions inside those lines don’t always move in sync with the outlines, which is obviously by design and gives the entire film a ghostly atmosphere. The colors are bold and vibrant, with less shading than we expect now from animated films that try to look three-dimensional. The film is mostly faithful to the original tale, which has many supernatural elements, and Laudenbach’s non-realistic approach fits it perfectly.

The Grimms’ story is a rather blunt, grotesque fable about the corrupting power of greed, with just one character of any import, the girl, voiced beautifully by French actress Anaïs Demoustier. Her faith in her father is not rewarded, and her strength in the face of the tragedy is part of the story’s moral (which sort of pounds you over the head). Laudenbach and Demoustier at least manage to humanize her, even though his fidelity to the story limits how much depth the character can get on screen, and he altered the ending slightly to tie the restoration of her hands to something more specific than the Grimms offered. She’s an obvious object for pity; Laudenbach and Demoustier make her more than just pathetic.

It’s the imagery that makes this movie, though; Laudenbach gives the film a tactile look, like we’re watching images flicker on canvas or paper. He plays little visual games with his characters as well, having them move as if they’re aware that their outlines and their flesh aren’t quite together, such as having a character hide in what looks like its own shadow at one moment. It’s just such a feast for the eyes, in a way that’s completely novel in the era of hyper realistic CG animation, and it’s thoroughly refreshing.

As for why this was overlooked by the Academy … I have no idea. It ran at Cannes in the ACID program, a simultaneous screening during that city’s film festival, in 2016. It won the grand prize in the Tokyo Anime Awards last year. It’s at 100% fresh with 19 reviews, all of which were written in 2017. I can’t believe voters saw this and still went with Boss Baby; hell, The Red Turtle got a nomination last year and was just as obscure. Watch The Girl Without Hands and I think you’ll agree its omission is a mistake.

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