Klawchat 8/5/21.

Subscribers to the Athletic can check out my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors right now as well as all of my trade deadline breakdowns.

Keith Law: I’m getting older too. Klawchat.

Kevin: Crossing my fingers that whenever they sign a new CBA, they allow trades of draft picks. Are you in favor of this as well?
Keith Law: I wrote a column for ESPN in either 2006 or 2007 arguing that it was in all parties’ best interests to allow trading of draft picks. My view hasn’t changed. Unfortunately neither side has a strong incentive to push for this in the CBA negotiations.

davealden53: I find referring to the extra-inning gimmicks as “phantom runners” to be confusing imprecise.  Those are real flesh-and-blood players on second base, unlike the imaginary runners of backyard wiffle-ball games.  What’s “phantom” is how the players reached second base.  I propose retiring “phantom runners” in favor of “phantom doubles”.  But whatever we call it, I hope it goes away.
Keith Law: Yeah, call it whatever you want, it’s gimmickry of the worst sort.

Frank: The biggest issue to me with the whole Rocker situation is he now has to sit out another year.  If the team that drafts a player doesnt want to sign him for medical reasons, then he should be free to go sign with whomever he wishes.  Seems incredibly unfair to the player to force him to delay his professional career by an entire year.
Keith Law: Hold on – that’s not accurate. He had the choice to submit his MRI to MLB, and thus to all teams before the draft. Had he done so, and any team drafting him then declined to make him an offer of at least 40% of slot, he would be a free agent. He declined to submit the MRI, and this is the consequence of that action. This mechanism of submitting MRIs predraft is not perfect but it better protects player and team than the old system. If a player chooses not to use that system, he must accept the consequences of that choice. The draft itself is a labor-exploiting farce, but this mechanism is one of the few aspects of it that does protect the player’s rights.
Keith Law: What if some other team saw Rocker’s MRI and disagreed with the Mets’ doctors? Then he would have gone somewhere fairly high and gotten paid accordingly – maybe not what the Mets offered, but more than the $0 he has now. And if all teams saw the MRI and said “oh hell no,” he’s no worse off than he is today anyway.

Sam: Were you surprised at how much of a discount Henry Davis signed for?  With no clear cut #1 did the Pirates put out a number to 3-4 guys and he was the one who said yes?
Keith Law: Not surprised, not in this draft class without a clear-cut #1.

Marlin Guy: Hi Keith! What’s your evaluation of Jazz Chisholm at this point? Thanks!
Keith Law: No change. I still think he’s got a real chance to be a star.

Tom: Luis Garcia of the Nats looked great in AAA and even hit 2 homers last night. I know you’ve never been particularly bullish, but is there a chance he has really turned a corner offensively at just 21.
Keith Law: Unless there’s been some real change in his swing that I don’t know about, no, not really. I’m not a huge believer in players who spend a good amount of time in the majors and then go back down and rake in triple-A, facing far worse pitching than they did in the majors. Imagine if a player was promoted to double A, struggled badly, then was returned to high- or even low-A and mashed. You’d look askance at that performance too.

Tom: this may be more of a nate silver question, but do you think theres data to suggest that the anti-vaxxers, most of whom are GOP, that are passing away from COVID, are going to hurt future election results for GOP?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, you stole that take from Nate, although I’m glad it’s getting some visibility.

JP: What did you think of Luis Gil’s MLB debut?
Keith Law: Great fastball, not enough of anything else.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s up with Kevin Smith (of the Blue Jays, not Silent Bob)?
Keith Law: Now that is a swing change guy. Different player than he was pre-COVID (or at Maryland, for that matter). He’s gone from a 3 (nothing) to a 5 (everyday player).

Tom: Other than a not so fast fastball, gotta like what we see from braxton garrett. Is there no. 2 upside here?
Keith Law: No, there’s not. He’s been pretty lucky so far, and the stuff just hasn’t come all the way back post-surgery. I would love to be wrong – he pitched one of the best games I’ve ever seen from a HS pitcher – but even with another mph on his fastball his arsenal is still light.

Fitzy: Is Austin Martin still a top 100 prospect in your view? I believe a lot of my fellow Jays fans were too hung up on his pre-season ranking and believe we got absolutely fleeced for Berrios.
Keith Law: He was on the top 50 linked at the top of this post.

JG: JR Richard passed away last night.  Thoughts…  If he hadn’t had that stroke was he on a HOF trajectory?
Keith Law: Died of COVID-19. Get your vaccine, folks. And yes, I think he was, if he held up – he was throwing exceptionally hard for his era and he might have had the sort of arm problems we saw often at the time.

Jonesy: Should the Jays be doing everything in their power to extend Semien and Ray right now?
Keith Law: No. It all comes down to cost.

Dan: Granted it’s a selected sample size but the Tigers look like a good(!) team since April ended. How much should be attributed to finally having a competent manager as well as positive contributions from Baddoo etc?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t undersell the switch to a competent manager. Also some of the rebuild is starting to hit the majors now.

Jeff: After the Cubs’ firesale, where you would now rank the Cubs’ farm system?
Keith Law: Eyeballing it, around the median. Huge improvement over preseason.

Justin: Would you rather have Henry Davis+Lonnie White, or Leiter+Some College Senior for the identical $7.9 mil of bonus pool?
Keith Law: Davis and White, although I think Davis + Chandler is the better 1-2 combo. Hitters over pitchers, for one thing, and Davis > Leiter anyway.

OJ1977: Seems like Austin Martin’s prospect standing has really dropped, at least in the eyes of Jays management…has his ceiling dropped given his lack of a defensive position and absence of power?
Keith Law: I wrote that. All of it.

Mike: can brett baty stick at 3B long-term? 30 hr potential??
Keith Law: I think he has a real chance to stay at 3b, maybe 50/50, up from maybe 10-20% odds back in HS.

Jake: Thanks for the chat, Keith! In your estimation has Jake Eder shown enough to be a back end top 100 guy? If so, was he close to your updated top 50?
Keith Law: Yes and yes. Legit. Might be better than Meyer, really.

Dark Knight: Riley Greene performing well at AA as a 20 yr old is impressive.  Does he have enough power to hit 20+ hrs in the majors?
Keith Law: I would put the o/u at 25. He’s real. I think I’m seeing him tonight.

Steve Cohen: What do I do now?  The system seems pretty top heavy with high A and AA players.  The failure to get any trades done is a consequence of the top heavy system – the list of desirable prospects is short.  Missing on Kumar I assume is a huge mistake (so much for the opposite of lolMets). What does this mean for the system and the future?
Keith Law: see above on Rocker. It is just wrong to peg this as a Mets error when nobody but the team and Rocker’s group know what was in the medicals. They also swapped a lot of talent in previous deals. I still think they’re well positioned to continue contending into the next several years.

Tom: Kyle Stowers is putting up pretty big numbers in AA (although in only 161 PA).  Any hope for him?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. Seen him a bunch.

Andrew: How would you grade the O’s rebuild to date. When is it fair to start building expectations for the major league club?
Keith Law: It’s fair, not great, hurt by the fact that the veterans were all traded (generally for not enough return) before the new regime came in; the awful luck with Kjerstad; and a continued lack of any production from the international side.

Ira: How can the Mets ever build up a farm system when they purposely draft under slot value for the entire draft for the purpose of signing a top pick, and then not sign that pick? Seems to me if many teams were afraid of Rocker’s physical status and he dropped, then the Mets should have maybe picked a different player.
Keith Law: Revisionist history. Don’t know any teams that were “afraid of Rocker’s physical status.” However, I would argue the Mets should have taken Will Taylor or another high-bonus HS kid in the 11th round and handed him the money they didn’t give Rocker.

Jay: Of the things Theo Epstein has discussed for improving the game (moving the mound, limits on shifts, pitch clocks, limiting # of pitchers on the roster) do you like any of them and which do you think can have the biggest positive impact?
Keith Law: Pitch clocks are a mixed bag – they do move the game along in an appreciable way, but may increase pitcher injuries. I like limiting the number of pitchers on the roster to try to discourage too many mid-inning pitching changes. But if you really want to speed the game up, you need shorter commercial breaks, and nobody wants to touch that.

Newt: If Dermis Garcia ever got a season with 600 PAs in the majors, would he be the inaugural member of the 30 HR, 350K Club?
Keith Law: He has 40 homer power and would probably strike out 50% of the time, enough that he’d never sniff 30 or even 20 homers.

Sean: Hi Keith, anything in Detmers start that gave you pause on his upside?  Curve looked great but fastball didn’t seem to get many misses, even holding the mid 90s velo.  Maybe just command jitters in his first start?
Keith Law: I don’t like judging any pitcher on his first major league start.

Vin: Hi Keith. Thanks for these chats. How do you evaluate the job Kapler has done with the Giants? Are there specific things he’s doing differently now than when he was in Philly?
Keith Law: Entire organizational approach to hitting has changed under him. I think he’s the manager of the year. That club has no business being this good.

Dallas: There is a Voltaggio brother’s cooking competition on Discovery+ that’s fantastic. Nicky Lopez is past 2.0 WAR on both BR and FG and could finish around 3.0 WAR. If this is who he is, is that a starting 2B going forward or still more of a very quality utility player (as a lot of that WAR is based on SS defense). Thanks.
Keith Law: I think he’s an everyday guy.

Vin: Could Luis Matos make a leap into the top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he was my Giants sleeper prospect this year or maybe last year before the shutdown.

Guest: I thought the Mets had to offer Rocker 40% of the slot to get the pick last year? Did that rule change?
Keith Law: No, the rule is the same, but only applies if the player complies with the MRI program.

Guest: What do you think the PA should be aiming for in the next CBA? Reduced service time requirement to FA? Arb eligible earlier?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, all of the above. distributing more money to players with less than 6 years service time should be a goal – those are the players whose salaries are artificially suppressed by the current system.

Luke: Anecdotally, 80-grade tools seem more commonly placed on players for arm strength, speed, raw power. Less common for hit and glove. The latter are more difficult to measure and thus harder to have confidence in. But given 20-80 is based on a distribution, would we expect the same number of 80s league-wide for each tool?
Keith Law: 20-80 is not based on a distribution. That story has been retconned on to the scale.

Justin: Is Adam Frazier a pretty good comparison for Tucupita Marcano?  Maybe Marcano needs to bulk up a little bit to make that possible?
Keith Law: I hate comps but I don’t hate that one.

Justin: Do you think Hoy Park can be a 1.5 WAR type SS and/or Super Util?
Keith Law: No. Way under that one.

Tony: This might require a tinfoil hat on my end, but is there a chance that the Orioles are keeping Rutschman in Double A for the whole year, so they have a ready-made excuse for keeping him down next year, too? Given where we are in the calendar, it feels unlikely they’d promote him for three weeks
Keith Law: TFH. I don’t believe this for a second. I do wonder if they’re keeping him in Bowie because it’s the nearby affiliate and they’ve always tried to keep Bowie competitive.

Shaun: How have you seen Torkelson progress this year,’? Expected? Over expectations?
Keith Law: Looked very good at the Futures Game. Should see him tonight too.

Steve: Is a Sox fan and liked Madrigal, though not devastated to see him gone. As a scout, what makes you so certain that power can’t develop like it did with Jose Altuve or other similar bodied players? Is he just an outlier and it’s unfair to compare? What are the metrics that show potential power with maturation?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look anything at all like Altuve. Really – just look at their builds and frames. They’re both short. I’m 5’6″, Altuve is 5’5″ if that, but I couldn’t possibly be as muscular as Altuve was, even if you put me on a weight training program (and I wasn’t 48, etc., etc.). You need strength, including real hand and forearm strength, to hit for power, or even just to hit with any authority.

Ryan: Who do you think has higher upside between Jordan Lawlar and Corbin Carroll? As a Dbacks fan, I can’t remember the last time I was this excited for the future.
Keith Law: Carroll.

Reb Wiseau: Are you surprised that Jud Fabian didn’t sign with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: No, but that’s not to his credit. Dude punched out 79 times this year and was just as bad at the end of the year as he was at the beginning. He was lucky to get an offer of first round money. Now he’ll be an older 21 in what might be a stronger draft class next year. He’d better be WAY better at the plate to get that kind of payout again.

Ben: Is this season out of nowhere for Willy Adames, or did the Brewers get a real star at SS?
Keith Law: Top 100 prospect several times, on my breakouts list for 2020, so definitely not out of nowhere, but maybe a year late.

Andy: Anyone who thinks of Tommy John as riskless should look up Brady Aiken, who went from #1 overall pick to being out of baseball by 24.
Keith Law: Well, he had something wrong in his elbow that made TJ itself a riskier proposition. (He’s also still in Cleveland’s system, just on the IL.) But some players don’t come back all the way from TJ. And, in an extreme outlier, a pitcher at George Mason died after TJ surgery – I don’t know if it was an infection or bleeding or something else – which I think should remind us all that Tommy John surgery is surgery, and not minor surgery at that. No surgery is riskless.

Noah: Hi Keith, as always, thank you for your chats.  As a fellow anxiety-sufferer and believer in science and feminist, the baseball stuff is just the icing on the cake for me.  But my question is: given what Sandy Alderson has overseen in terms of hiring personnel with red flags (i.e. multiple  sexual harassment hires), why isn’t there more of an outcry for him to resign?  It seems that not only the media, the Mets organization, but also fans are just sweeping this under the rug and forgetting about it.
Keith Law: I’ve had a few people around MLB ask the same question. If Sandy was responsible, then why isn’t he being held accountable, and if he wasn’t responsible, well, why not? I don’t have an answer to that. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stepped aside at the end of this year, especially now that a few of his top lieutenants have been promoted/extended.

Brendan: Hi Keith! Its highly unlikely that to ever happen but in the wake of the Rocker situation I’ve seen a couple sport writers and many fans call for the end of the draft (unfair labor practices/manipulation and all). If that were to happen, what could be done to prevent all the top prospects from signing with one team? Perhaps a hybrid system where teams still receive the equivalent of their bonus pools and they can sign as many “draft picks” as they want with that money with fines and penalties similar to the international pool rules for exceeding your allotted money? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why would all of the top prospects sign with one team so they can fight for the finite amount of playing time available?

Dungeon Master: any change on Triston Casas evaluation this year? Results seem solid but not spectacular. Is he the Red Sox 1B by next summer? I know tough for a 1B to hit top 50, but hoping the bat is good enough to play there for a first division team.
Keith Law: No change. Good prospect, waiting for more thump to show up.

Ian: Any changes to the view of Nick Yorke and/or Blaze Jordan after some of their recent successes?
Keith Law: Small samples, and Jordan did it in the Florida Man League, but it’s all very promising, especially seeing Jordan show some power in games (while playing below sea level down there). Also don’t sleep on Brandon Walter. Delaware lefty, 26th rounder, now up to 97 with a starter look.

Mike: Any restaurant recommendations near Rehoboth/Dewey?
Keith Law: The Station & Eggcelent in Lewes. Rise Up coffee in Rehoboth. I try not to eat down at Rehoboth because it’s basically Grotto’s and Thrasher’s on an infinite loop.

Bradley: What are your thoughts on how the Cubs did overall on prospects received in their trades?  Specifically Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I wrote up all my Cubs deadline thoughts here.

Evan R.: Astros prospect Hunter Brown…the next Walker Buehler?
Keith Law: I mean, Brown has great shit, top 25 prospect in baseball kind of shit … but he’s only had anything approaching average control for about six weeks now.

Sean: The Graveman trade broke our hearts, but this Abraham Toro guy seems like an infielder that can switch hit with power and speed. What do you see in him?
Keith Law: The trade of a journeyman reliever in the midst of his first really good season broke your hearts? I like Toro, more like a  multi-position utility guy who can play close to every day, but much prefer him to Graveman.

Coffee Drinker: You like coffee. I like coffee. What beans do you typically get and from where?
Keith Law: All over. I buy beans whenever I travel. Right now I’m using some Royal Mile Breakfast Jawn (light roast) beans for espresso and a Colombian from GIV coffee in Canton, CT, for pour-over.

Dark Knight: Dodgers have been giving Gavin Lux opportunities for couple years… do you see him more as a Carter Kieboom/ Biggio?  or still someone who will be an above avg regular?
Keith Law: Chance to be a star. Way better than those other two. Not even in the same league in tools or ability.

Sean: Any intel as to why the Red Sox didn’t beat the Yankees offer for Rizzo?  It seems like it wasn’t a prospect quality issue and the SSS results are…frustrating
Keith Law: Disagree. Prospects the Cubs got were good.

Mike: Along the same line as the Luis Garcia question – do you feel the same about Jose Barrero? He seems to be walking much more than he did in the past.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel a little better about his power potential because it was always there.

Jon: Have you been able to see or hear anything new about any Cardinals prospects like Gorman, Liberatore, or Thompson?
Keith Law: I saw Gorman and Liberatore in Denver and wrote them up.

Mike: I’ve seen Riley Greene a bunch of times and see flashes of Eastern League top prospects Gregory Polanco and Dom Brown with him due to a slow bat, is he closer to a 5 level talent than a 6?
Keith Law: Uh … no, that’s not accurate at all.

John: Are you a believer in Samad Taylor? The power has kind of come out of nowhere.
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect. Possible regular.

Guest: Hi Keith– I was curious what, if anything, you’ve heard about George Valera this year. Walk rate seems pretty impressive for such a young guy at that level.
Keith Law: Very positive reports. Wanted to see him in the Futures Game too.

Josh: You seem fairly high on Randy Vasquez.  Where does he rank compared to endless amount of right handers the Yankees have like Medina, Gil, Way, Yoendrys Gomez, etc.
Keith Law: Less famous, more likely to be a starter than Medina, Gil, or Way, I think.

Dark Knight: Andre Jackson just pitched well in AA and promoted to AAA.  LA has Pepiot & Miller/Beeter that looks like they’ll be ready soon.  Will LA use the Gonsolin model for these guys?
Keith Law: I definitely would with Jackson, who is still ‘young’ in pitching experience (but not young for a prospect).

Mac: Are you surprised the White Sox moved on from Nick Madrigal so quickly?
Keith Law: No. They’re smart people. They saw his ceiling as well as his floor and made a calculated decision.

Chris: Trying not to read the stat lines on less heralded guys but do the Yanks have anything in Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Sears?  (Was gonna ask about Hauver, Otto, and Junk too but no longer care!)
Keith Law: I wrote up Wesneski, think he’s a reliever, but I know guys who have him in as a starter. Waldichuk is more on the starter/reliever bubble.

Alex In Austin: Is there any value in bringing up Witt Jr now to start getting challenged at the major league level or does it make more long term sense to wait to start the clock?
Keith Law: I’d love to see him up in September for that very reason. They might not do so for 40-man reasons but I think it’ll help his development to come up for a few weeks, even if he gets overpowered. He’ll make the adjustment.

Jason: Kelenic has been really bad in MLB and the list of other players who have begun their career this bad is very discouraging despite the great MiLB numbers. How much do you weigh historical trends when projecting his future?
Keith Law: Not at all, since we are in the highest K% era in the sport’s history.

Matt: Is the Jose Miranda breakout legit?
Keith Law: Been talking about him for years, and I think I said this in the last chat too. He can hit.

Ben: So a lot of Tiger’s fan understand the circumstances with Manning being up now, even though he is clearly not ready. But I saw a comparison between his statcast and Mike Pelfrey’s and made me sick. Even tho he isn’t ready, shouldn’t he be putting up better metrics than that as is? Has your overall outlook on his future changed?
Keith Law: He wasn’t 100% last year, with a sore shoulder, and then hasn’t been good at any level this year. My inference is that he never got ‘right.’ It seems awfully coincidental that he should get hurt for the first time, and then after that struggle like he hasn’t since he was still in extended spring training a year after the draft.

Dave Mayer: Hi Keith, Thoughts on Nick Lodolo?  Was he close on your mid season top 50?
Keith Law: Not close – top 100, not top 50. Big leaguer for sure, not a huge ceiling.

Jason: The Jays obviously soured on Austin Martin. Do you think the trade also speaks to them thinking highly of Groshans and how do you feel about Groshans future?
Keith Law: I don’t have great reports from this year on Groshans.

Arnold: In last week’s deadline deals, which team is most likely to regret the prospect they gave up for the two-month rental they received?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t shock anyone if Martin became a star after all. If you want a slightly more obscure name, Kevin Alcantara is a longshot, but also probably has the most upside of all the guys the Cubs got.

Roger: What do you think is the ETA on Volpe and does he have what it takes to stick at SS?
Keith Law: Could be up by end of 2022; my best guess is he’s good enough to stay at short, maybe even be a 55 defender there, but that the Yankees (or whoever) would try to get a 60 or better guy to replace him and move him to second. He’s not going to hurt you with his glove, though.

Barry: I’ve read The Inside Game and know your thoughts on drafting high school pitchers. Do you think the industry agrees with you and maybe the Phillies think they found a market inefficiency or (based on recent history) are they just bad at drafting?
Keith Law: I know some execs agree with me, but obviously not all do, and if nobody is taking HS pitchers in the first round at all, that would probably change the data, right? Suddenly if there are only 1 or 2 HS arms going in the first round each year, we might find their failure rate is similar to that of other player types.

Andy: Could the Mets have seen the MRI on Rocker, said nothing, signed him, rested him due to a full college season and then tried to trade him in the offseason? Would that have gone afoul of disclosure rules, even though he didn’t have an injury per se?
Keith Law: Other teams would have asked to see the MRI.

Ryan: Can Touki still be a #2 or better starter for the Braves?
Keith Law: He has that potential. I think he has ace stuff, really, but prior to those two starts when he came back this year (before the one against the Brewers), he’d never really shown the command to be a starter. It was always a bet on ridiculous stuff and +++ athleticism.

Dark Knight: Is Josh Winder for real?  Has a chance to be a #3?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ryan: What happened to Hiura? Does he just need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: The Brewers tried to turn him into a big launch-angle, swing-up for power guy, and it has ruined him as a hitter. He’s a zero at the plate right now. I don’t know anyone who could hit the way he’s swinging. It’s aggravating – this kid was going to make a ton of money just hitting for average with lots of doubles, and someone took that away from him to chase the latest fad. Swing optimization has worked wonders for some players, but it is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Buck: Does Rowdy Tellez have at least platoon potential or not even that?
Keith Law: Not really. A platoon DH isn’t worth the roster spot.

ssinole: What are your thoughts on Andrew Vaughn? Learning a new position,  playing it pretty well and now he’s starting to mash RHP.
Keith Law: Big fan. Thought for bat alone he was better than Rutschmann, but Adley had the positional value.

Zac: Even if Jackson Jobe becomes the greatest pitcher of all time, doesn’t Al Avila still deserve criticism for taking a huge risk at 3? I’m sure if Jobe becomes a star, people will compliment Avila for the pick when he actually should be criticized.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a process vs results issue. This was not a great process, given who else was on the board and the base rate of HS pitchers. It may still yield great results.

Dave: A lot of people seem to think that the A’s to Vegas is going to happen. Is that really a great market, especially considering Lake Mead is drying up and they already have two pro teams?
Keith Law: Worst market. Bad demographics, bad weather, and as you said, too much competition already.
Keith Law: The NBA has been quite savvy about moving into new markets, and they haven’t toyed with this idea yet. Says something.

Danny: I read on Baseball America that Austin Wells’s defense is looking rough? Have you heard similar sentiments and where would you move him if he’s not a catcher?
Keith Law: Said that before the draft. He can really hit but he’s not a catcher.

Paul: Reading your reviews, you mentioned Fabian has some big holes in his swing. Do you think  he jumps up to the top of the first round next year?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Can’t say never, but he has to make some huge adjustments that he didn’t make this year, and he’ll be evaluated against a higher standard for his experience level.

Dark Knight: Seth Beer the future 1B for ARI as soon as next year?  Can he be the prototypical power bat at the corner?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. Below average defensive 1B, for one thing.

Kretin: Chris Rodriguez seemed to do ok in his first MLB start. Do you think he will be durable enough to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Great arm, tough delivery and history of back problems make me skeptical.

CVD: Surprised by the James Wood overslot?
Keith Law: Floored. Area scouts I know were very wary of him.

Justin: What’s the deal with Bryse Wilson?  Is he a guy who needs to move to relief to see if the stuff ticks up?
Keith Law: No, the velocity isn’t the issue, but the secondary stuff is. Eager to see if working with a new coaching staff/org can help him develop a better slider, in particular.

Mike: It’s still a small sample, but to clarify the two homers Luis Garcia hit last night were vs. the Phillies, not in AAA
Keith Law: I mean …

Ken: Have you written about Jose Miranda at all? Just read a Gleeman post noting he has the best OPS for a minor leaguer in the orgs history. Curious how this boosts his stock.
Keith Law: Several times. He’s been on my Twins rankings for a few years.

Jerome: Have you been watching Olympic baseball? Thoughts on kazmir thinking he can pitch in the MLB again
Keith Law: Not a single pitch.

Zach: What will it take for there to be actual, impactful changes to the minor league system a la the Astros providing housing for all their minor leaguers? I know it’s a battle between billionaires wanting to cheap out as much as possible vs protecting their investments, is there anyway we can help move the needle?
Keith Law: Public pressure. Britt Ghiroli’s article today should help. MLB did an end run around labor laws to get minor leaguers declared “seasonal employees.” The only thing that will change their minds is public pressure to do so.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for reading. I’ll have a scouting notebook up in the next few days for subscribers.

Comments

  1. When the NBA inevitably returns to Seattle, it will probably be through expansion along with a second city. The city I’ve seen as the most likely being the 32nd franchise is Vegas. The other rumored cities also have questions about them (Kansas City, Louisville, Mexico City, etc). I think there’s a lot less preventing the NBA from going to Vegas than MLB. Really, all the NBA wants is someone who could pay the $2B+ entrance fee and the check doesn’t bounce. MLB would need a $1B+ ballpark, after the city and county just spent close to that on the Raiders stadium. There is also a brand new, $150M ballpark that probably wouldn’t have a tenant if a MLB moved into the area.

  2. Brian in ahwatukee

    Not related – can’t find your review of Underworld by DeLillo. Have you read it? If not, how come. Not sure I’d recommend it. Would fit best to someone who is maybe around 55 years old as many of the bits and pieces are before my time. Anyway, would love to read your thoughts on it.

    • I haven’t, mostly because I didn’t love White Noise and Underworld is even longer. I have heard the baseball section is amazing, though.

  3. Brian in ahwatukee

    Without reading White Noise but a few other works of his, I can appreciate your comments very much. It has beautiful passages like any 800 page novel but it’s still a Po-mo book. Worth the read but one has to be ready and willing to put in the work.

    But if you’ve read IJ, GR, Joyce this is by far the easiest. Not sure if that’s a plus or minus tho. Lol. Cheers

  4. Those given to say such things have said that DeLillo’s baseball passage in Underworld ranks with Updike’s “Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu” as the best baseball writing by non-baseball writers. Both pieces are knockouts, no question. Not sure what Keith’s issues with DeLillo are, but I will say he has a problem trusting his readers to suss out his underlying themes — he has to explicate everything. I don’t need to be written at — just tell me a story and leave me to consider or discuss it.

  5. Mitchell Walk

    You’ve beat the commercial breaks are the cause of long games drum for a while, but that is demonstrably false. Yes, it accounts for a large share of the increase in game times for playoff games (compared to regular season games), but it does not account for the large increase in game times over the last 15-20 years. See here.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-isnt-really-addressing-its-pace-problem/
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cause-of-lengthening-mlb-games/

    • It’s not that they’re the cause, but that they’re the easiest solution. We don’t need a 2:00 or longer commercial break for every pitching change, for one thing.

  6. I don’t get accusing the guy of stealing from Nate Silver. I too have thought about Republicans losing votes due to COVID, and I can assure you that I don’t read Silver.