Klawchat 4/22/21.

My latest post for subscribers to the Athletic looks at Louisville catcher Henry Davis, maybe the best prospect in this year’s draft class, and other draft prospects from Louisville, Virginia, and the high school ranks.

Keith Law: I’ve got the answer. Open the envelope. Klawchat.

Mac: Will Jackson Jobe get top 5 consideration?
Keith Law: No. The last two drafts didn’t include a HS pitcher in the top 15 picks. Jobe shouldn’t be a top 5 pick on his own merits, or with what might be an industry trend away from HS pitchers up top.

Larry: Do you think Henry Davis’ receiving will improve? He has a problem with the catching part of catching.
Keith Law: That’s wrong. He receives well, throws plus, could use some help with blocking. I’m not sure where you got that information but it’s bad.

addoeh: It might be confirmation bias on my part, but it seems there are more HS seniors from cold weather states projected to go in the first couple of rounds the last few years or so, but especially this year.  Is this accurate?
Keith Law: It seems accurate this year, but I don’t see a trend. California and Texas are just having their worst HS years in memory, and that’s creating opportunity (or need) for cold-weather kids to fill the gap.

Bill G: Thanks as always for doing these chats.  How would you use Ohtani?  Starter/DH, Starter only, DH only, DH/Closer?  Thanks!
Keith Law: Just pick one. He’s a hitter or a pitcher. I think the Angels are losing some value by trying to have him do both.

AJ: Jazz is sure looking like the star you’ve said he would be. What is his ceiling? And do you think he’ll get that K rate down, or is 25-30% just who he is?
Keith Law: I could see him settling into the 23-25% range, but between the way the game is now and the way he swings, I doubt he ever has a year where he’s better than the league median in K%. I’m glad to see his at bats overall are better, though.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Around what round projection do you start seeing 6-8 organizations area scouts at that particular player’s game/starts?  Our local HS Friday starter has probably seen that many at every one of his starts, but I can’t see him being more than a 15th-20th round guy. I know its obviously not an exact formula, but I always wondered.
Keith Law: That doesn’t add up. If he’s a HS pitcher on Fridays – the night most colleges throw their best guys – he wouldn’t have six area scouts there unless he’s a first-rounder. You’re seeing part-timers or they’re not scouts at all.

RickG: Hey Keith. Have you considered returning to Top Chef recaps, or would you ever? This season has been very interesting. I re-watched some seasons during the Pandemic and whenever possible re-read your takes – I’ve learned much more about cooking then I knew when the shows first aired and found your perspective even better the 2nd time around.
Keith Law: I appreciate that very much, but those took around 3 hours (viewing + writing) to do, and I just don’t have that kind of time any more.

Tom: Pavin Smith seeing some regular playing time. With the adjustment to his launch angle over the past year, what do you see his offensive output looking like?
Keith Law: He’s still getting on top of the ball a little too much, but I see a high-OBP 20-homer guy.

Guest: A few weeks (months?) ago you appeared on an Orioles podcast mentioned that one thing were concerned about for Kjerstad was his strikeout rate. What is more concerning about his strikeouts than, say, George Springer’s, who is someone you were higher on than consensus when he was coming out of college?
Keith Law: Kjerstad struck out way more often with far fewer walks. Springer had plate discipline, but didn’t bring a two-strike approach (other than “swing hard”). Kjerstad doesn’t have that.

J: Do you know where Pedro Leon is headed once the minor league seasons start? Or is he going to be in limbo for a while? Also – more impossible question – what can/should expectations be for him?
Keith Law: I doubt we’ll see many assignments till next week. Minor league season starts in 12 days, though!

davealden53: From 2009 to 2019, two friends and I took annual minor league trips of a week or more to different regions.  2020 was lost and 2021 isn’t looking a lot better.  Instead, we’re considering the Arizona Fall League for the first week of November.  What have you heard about the AFL plans for this year?  Will the season extend into November?  And will fans be allowed to attend games?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet and I’m concerned MLB will just decide to axe the league to save another $23.

TomBruno23: For years the Vitae Foundation, a pro-life organization based in Jefferson City, MO, has been a sponsor of St. Louis Cardinals baseball on KMOX. This season they bring us the starting lineups each and every game. How upset should I be about this? I honestly do not know. https://vitaefoundation.org/
Keith Law: I wouldn’t give my money to the team in that situation, but my guess is that they’re playing to their base.

Tom: Joc Pederson off to a slow start. Sure, SSS, but he’s K’ing a lot even for him. Think he can be a solid offensive contributor?
Keith Law: I do, but I’m concerned that he’s whiffing so much against RHP. He’s never really hit lefties and expecting him to is foolhardy.

Sedona: Is Aaron Ashby the 3rd best SP in the entire org?
Keith Law: No – I’m not completely sold that he’s a starter.

Michael: Hi Keith. Giants fan here – interested to see what you think of farhans strategy the past two plus seasons?  I know we are better than we were when he got here and appreciate that we didn’t “tank”, but do you feel we are actually closer to competing for a championship now than two years ago?  Thanks!
Keith Law: Yes, I like the overall direction, and especially the way they’re trying out veterans who might benefit from a change of scenery and approach, players who’d be great trade pieces in July if the Giants are out of it. The worst thing that could happen would be some fake contention where they keep all of those guys instead.

Moe Mentum: It’s still early (SSS) but what should the Phillies do about their glaring hole in center field? I know you won’t recommend Odubel Herrera, but…
Keith Law: I’d probably play Quinn out there, of the options on the roster. They can fire Herrera into the sun for all I care. Moniak isn’t the answer, and while I wish the best for Haseley, they have to move on. I don’t think they have anyone close enough in the system to be better than a replacement-level Quinn.

Aaron in Indy: Glad to see Yankee fans handling their early season struggles with the patience and level headedness that we could only come to expect.

But seriously, does Boone make it thru the year if they don’t drastically improve.  And I think they will start hitting more especially when Volt comes back.  But do they have enough pitching (including minor league) to make a run at the division???
Keith Law: It’s not even 10% of the season, though. Joe Sheehan wrote somewhere the other day that every team has a 5-10 stretch at some point, even the best teams. The overreaction to the small sample is mind-boggling, even if you buy into the stereotype of the Yankee fan (I think Yankee fans are no different than fans of other teams, but we think they’re louder because there are so many more of them).

Sedona: Has Kopech shown anything differently so far to change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No, this is what I thought he’d do in a relief role – now we’ll see how it goes as he stretches out, if his command holds (it really turned a corner in the last two months he spent in the minors) and he stays healthy.

Jason: Are reverse splits a real thing for relievers?  Chris Martin was substantially better against lefties in 2019 (and better in 2020, though his numbers were really good against both), but I’m curious as to whether that can be sustinable
Keith Law: They can be real, but you’d probably need about three years’ worth of innings to be sure of it. It would help if you could see it in the arsenal – a pitcher with a great changeup or split, but not much of a breaking ball, would likely have a reverse split.

John: An mlb.com mock draft published yesterday showed Rocker falling to the Red Sox at 4.  What do you see as the chances of that happening?
Keith Law: Not unreasonable.

Noah: Re: the Mets front office, don’t you think at this point Sandy Alderson has to step down?  One mistake in hiring is maybe something you can shrug off (although with sexual harassment, I don’t think so), but this is a pattern.
Keith Law: Yes, he absolutely does, for rehiring someone with a history of harassment over the active objections of multiple current employees. I have always liked and respected Sandy, but this is not just an error in judgment, and his response to the Athletic article did not help matters.
Keith Law: My guess is that he’ll finish the year and be allowed to “resign” on his terms, since his departure now would leave an interim GM and no baseball executive above him, but I wouldn’t even wait that long. It sends a horrible message to the organization.

Jason: Is billy mckinney (with his former first round pedigree) a breakout candidate or is he just having a hot start?
Keith Law: He has a .297 OBP. That’s not a hot start.

Steve: What is the main reason Wander Franco isn’t a major leaguer yet?
Keith Law: He’s never played above A-ball.

Ben Z: Alright Keith. Hit us with your Oscar picks. I know you haven’t seen MINARI yet (I think), my choice for Best Picture of the nominees, albeit in a deservedly tight, strong 1-2 race with Nomadland…so setting that movie aside for now…
Keith Law: I think Nomadland will win, and it would be my pick. This year’s possible Green Book is The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is very actorly and Such an Important Movie, You Know, In This Moment, but which I would rank 8th of the nominees.

Zach: Do you think Tejay Antone’s stuff can hold up in the rotation? It looks like has video game cheat codes.
Keith Law: Big spin guy but more likely a reliever in the end. Stuff plays, though.

Uli Jon: I thought this was going to be an above average draft a year ago, which maybe says something about early projections as well as Covid weirdness. If you had to pick one, would you say this class is weak or more of a shrug emoji?
Keith Law: It’s ended up weak. Now maybe it’s because guys were rusty, or are dealing with more fatigue than usual, but it’s a weak class.

Anthony: If Tatis was still a prospect would you drop him in your rankings because of this shoulder issue?
Keith Law: No, that’s absurd.

Frank: You seem to be a big Henry Davis fan from your article.  If you were picking 1-1 would you take him over any of the pitchers?
Keith Law: I am going to see Leiter (if possible) in the next few weeks, but right now, I think I would. Elite bat at catcher. Position player > pitcher. And the pitchers this year, while very good up top, are not Strasburg/Cole/Price.

Michael: Vlad is crushing it. Is it because he’s really in the best shape of his life or something else?
Keith Law: Two possible explanations: either it’s because he’s putting the ball in the air a lot more (launch angle is way up over 2019 or 220), or it’s because I made him a breakout pick last year and those names always seem to be a year too early (or, as with Rickie Weeks, just never right).

Jays: Are the Jays’ defensive issues an organizational failure or the logical outcome of a bat first bottleneck? Is improvement even possible?
Keith Law: Bat-first bottleneck, sure, but also, why play Bichette at short over Semien? why play Biggio at third? They’re making some specific choices that, while probably not huge individually, might add up to 10 or more runs allowed over the course of the year.

Ben Z: What do you think is the proper course for my Nats? It seems like their window has finally shut. It’s been a great decade and I’m not complaining (nor can I get too upset over things like the Strasburg and Corbin contracts or their failure to extend young position player superstars or trading away Giolito and Luzardo…who knows, remove one of these, and maybe they don’t get their ring)…but this will be a tough plane to take apart and rebuild…
Keith Law: Scherzer would be quite the coveted midseason acquisition if they choose to trade him. I know that’s not Rizzo’s MO, but he could probably make a killing.

Amos: Hi Keith – If you were in charge of the A’s, would you roll the dice on Jaden Hill towards the end of the 1st round? They’ve gambled on high end tools in Beck and Murray and Hill seems like a similar lottery ticket type pick if given the time to recover from TJ surgery. Thanks.
Keith Law: Depends on the medicals, but yeah, where they pick, it would be a worthwhile gamble in this draft.

Guest: The standard answer is you should never draft for need and the worst result is you have multiple talented prospects at the same position which you can trade- buuuut, would the Yankees take another catcher at 20 (given the prep catcher talent) if they’ve drafted 3 catchers in the top 2 rounds in the last 3 years?
Keith Law: Why, though? It’s not a great prep catcher class, so I’m not sure why they’d specifically take one with greater depth in other areas of the class.

Max: What does Del Castillo have to do to get back into the top-5ish part of the draft a lot of people pegged him at earlier this year?
Keith Law: That’s just not happening.

HH: Are teams allowed to ask players whether they’ve had the Covid-19 vaccine, and if not, whether they plan to get it? Would you downgrade a player who refused relative to a similar player who wouldn’t? If so, how much?
Keith Law: That’s a good question. I assume they could ask, given what they’re allowed to ask players about their medical histories. I would consider refusal to get a vaccine as an indicator of questionable makeup. It shows a lack of critical thinking.

Mac: I get all that about Jobe but what if he’s a unicorn?  HS right hander aside he sure checks a lot of boxes for a TOR pitcher.
Keith Law: He’s not, though. He doesn’t check any more boxes than Abel did. And you’re ignoring the base rate – why is he going to be a unicorn? Because he’s tall and athletic? So are lots of top HS pitchers. Because he throws hard? Well, even more do that.
Keith Law: Jobe is a good prospect. He doesn’t belong in the top 5.

Dylan: Re travel to Texas for scouting Lawlar — I was in Dallas this past weekend, and nearly everyone I encountered was masked.  My sense is that the metro areas still act about like they did under the mask orders, but that it’s a different story in rural areas.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, although his season is about to end on Tuesday, and there will only be limited chances to see him beyond that.

Chris: Thoughts on Frankie Montas?
Keith Law: He’s a reliever, always has been. I’m amazed how much of a chance he’s gotten to start.

JC: Austin Riley’s baseball savant’s page is hard to look at – do you think this was a case of the Braves actually thinking he could get better, or just being cheap and hoping they can get anything for min salary? Just all around frustrating to watch him now
Keith Law: I assume it was more cost than anything else – play the existing options, wait for Shewmake to pop by the end of this year.

Rob: Have you seen a single coherent argument *against* DC statehood? I mean sure, it is a “power grab” to a certain extent. But what isn’t these days? Tell me why DC doesn’t *deserve* statehood and maybe I’ll listen, wingnuts!
Keith Law: I haven’t. It’s all rooted in race or party.

Graves: Should I impute to an organization the beliefs of its advertisers? If so, why?
Keith Law: They made an active choice to partner with an anti-abortion group. If your favorite team chose to partner with a white supremacist group, would you not impute those beliefs to the team?

Brett: Have you seen Arkansas outfielder Christian Franklin? Any thoughts on his draft stock?
Keith Law: Second/third round type. Been much worse since conference play starter, but has some tools on both sides and could be an interesting project for someone. Maybe he gets into the comp round – there are a lot of guys in that Kam Misner sort of category, toolsy college outfielders who swing and miss way too much but have upside. After Jeren Kendall, though, teams seem reluctant to take them in the first round.

John: How serious is Jarren Duran’s swing and miss issue?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, what swing and miss issue? Did he play in some games this year I missed?

Pete: Do you think LaRussa is mis-handling Andrew Vaughn right now? He’s playing him sporadically and batting him 8th a lot, all while Vaughn is learning a new position. Is this messing with Vaughn’s development or is this the appropriate way for a win-now team to break in a prospect?
Keith Law: James Fagen said this on my podcast this week – if they’re not playing Vaughn every day, he should be in the minors once those start.

Mitchell: Klaw, how well do you think the Dbacks are set up for the future with Hazen. Lost cause this year but do they have enough in the system to be competitive down the road with Carroll, Robinson, Corbin, etc?
Keith Law: Yeah, the system is really strong, especially with some of the pitching on the come – if guys like Grammes and Cecconi really have turned the corner, the system will look a lot better in July when we reassess. The lack of a season last year to see if their supposed changes were real does hurt their perception, although it makes no difference in reality.

Ben Z: Do we think Victor Robles is ever going to reach what seemed to be his potential as a prospect to be a decent offensive player? Or has he regressed in a way that seems permanent?
Keith Law: His main problem seems to be that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough often enough. I’m not really sure how you fix that.

ivy: Do you see Dean Kremer as having the potential to become, say, a #3 starter? He can look terrific for several innings, seems to have problems sustaining his performance for more than a few innings. How fixable is that sort of problem?
Keith Law: The delivery isn’t great, but I think he can be a back-end guy, a 4 or a 5 who eats innings but is worse than league-average at run prevention.

Rodney: Slow start for Rowdy Tellez. Lots of folks were highlighting changes in his BB and K rates last year. But… it was 36 games, right? He’s still probably the same 4A/platoon guy?
Keith Law: Yep, same as he ever was.

Roger: when do we see kelenic and Franco in the majors?
Keith Law: I’m guessing May and June, respectively. We’ll see what Seattle does with Lewis back and the minors starting, so Trammell would have somewhere to play.

Bree: Keith – Love your work. The A’s have had a number of players who were relatively underrated as prospects v their big league performance (Olson, Chapman, Canha). Why do you think that’s the case, if there’s an underlying reason at all and who in their current system do you think could be next to outperform their current prospect status?
Keith Law: Canha was a rule 5 pick who’s been fine as a part-time player – he’s never even qualified for the batting title. He’s not in the class of Chapman, who cut down on his swing and miss right when he reached the majors, which is really remarkable. I asked some A’s people about it a few years ago for a column on “guys I got wrong,” and they said they didn’t have a great explanation for it, either. It was something he did on his own and they gave him the credit.

Ryan: I’m a Twins fan, please tell me it is going to be ok.  On another note, Kiriloff has to be up this weekend right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to make the OD roster, so of course I’ll say yes.

David: What would you put the odds at that the Pirates draft someone other than Lieter? Your piece of Henry Davis opened my eyes.
Keith Law: I think they should explore Davis as an option, yes, absolutely, both because he might be the #1 prospect in the class, and because maybe they can get the best deal between him and Leiter (I don’t think they’re on a HS kid there) and do more at their next pick.

Jason: dinselson lamet– should he have gotten TJ
Keith Law: Uh … didn’t he have TJ?

Rob: Bummed that the Phils had to recall Kingery while he was still working on swing changes, and reportedly struggling with it. Seems like another setback for his development, no? What’s the prognosis now?
Keith Law: Not ideal, no.

Guest: The Yankees are obviously tanking for Elijah Greene right?
Keith Law: Man, I’ve heard some really mixed things on him. I talked to one scout who said it’s among the best tools prospects in years, and a day later another scout who wouldn’t take him in the first round.
Keith Law: I will say I find these year-ahead hype guys pan out less often than you’d think. I’m not saying this on Green, but often it’s the kid who grew fastest rather than the kid who’s the best prospect.

Matt: Thoughts on Cedric Mullins? Was a switch hitter who gave up hitting from the right side this year. Now top 5 in the AL in hits.  Small sample size, but it seems to be clicking more this year.
Keith Law: SSS.

Chris: Cape Cod League just announced their season! Can’t recall, do you still come up for some CC games ever? Be fun to run into you.
Keith Law: Yes, not since 2018, but I do love going up there and really hope to work it in this summer. Might have to be after the draft, though.

Amir: Do you think Thatcher Hurd could go in the 1st round? What do you think about him?
Keith Law: Maybe 5% chance. He’s a second-round talent and I think he’s someone’s second pick overpay, not a first-rounder. We’ll see, though – almost three months to the draft, so a lot of time for Hurd (or anyone) to show something new, throwing harder or showing more power or something, and change that.

Kevin C: Tatis’s slow start, not just at the plate but in the field is concerning.  How much should be attributed to the shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I’m assuming all of it is.

Mike: Point me to some Asheville eats please
Keith Law: Never been. Isn’t that sad?

Guest: Will the Pirates draft another “number three” pitcher 1-1?
Keith Law: I have had that worry with Leiter … he’s a better prospect than Bullington was, but if he’s not a future ace, will Pirates fans just put them in the same category?

Chris: George kirby is touching 101 now? I know all the reasons to not get excited, but have you heard/seen anything that makes his outlook change?
Keith Law: I heard that from Eric Longenhagen – I assume he wrote it, too – and if Kirby’s throwing that hard, yes, it changes his outlook, because his fastball played below its velocity in college. At, say, 96-101, though, “playing down” might still be okay.

Tim: Does Nick Madrigal have value even without the ability to hit for extra bases?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely – I’ve never said he had no value. He just has no ceiling.

Danial W: Glad you got to try Al Carbon while you were in town. Next time there are a couple pizzas up your alley, Lampo near downtown and surprisingly from Vivace near the stadium.  Have you had a chance to notice any significant changes from any major leaguers in this short season?
Keith Law: Lampo had a 140 minute wait for take-out that night. I didn’t have that kind of time. I’ve mentioned a few of those changes above, like Vlad Jr.’s swing change, and I don’t suppose it’s any news to talk about Corbin Burnes’ cutter (and he was already an ace in my mind).

David H: Thanks as always for doing these chats, Keith. Long-time reader, first-time poster. Wednesday was the 5th anniversary of Prince’s death, so I went through your archives to find your ranking of his top songs. I also read the LA Times list that ranked his 85 singles. The Times’ No. 1, “If I Was Your Girlfriend,” didn’t make your list, so I was just curious, given your status as a Prince fan, why that was?
Keith Law: What a weird choice. It’s not a very interesting or catchy song.

Matt: During weak draft classes, why don’t we see more teams punt to the next year?  If you’re 7th in a weak draft year, aren’t you better off not getting a deal done and picking 8th if the next year is stronger?
Keith Law: No, you’re definitely not. For one thing, you don’t know if the next draft is stronger. For another, you could lose your job before then, maybe for fucking up the draft, and then someone else gets that pick.

wickethewok: Would a season-long Buxton break out be the most gratifying case for you of a player fulfilling your projected potential (short of Rickie Weeks coming out of retirement)?
Keith Law: Yes, because good Byron Buxton is extremely good for baseball. The man is a walking highlight machine.

Jason: Hi Keith, do you ever listen to audiobooks?  I know you prefer dead trees, but audiobooks have really allowed me to get back to consuming books again
Keith Law: I do, but only certain genres, because I don’t have the same level of concentration and often miss stuff. It’s hard to do that with a novel and fully appreciate the work.

John: Bobby Witt Jr. over/under July 1?
Keith Law: After.

Dallas: Corbin Burnes went 4th round out of college. What was the report coming out of college and how much of this is talent vs. “pitch building” especially with the unreal spin rates on all of his pitches? My real question is how much of this is “pitch building”/adding spin?
Keith Law: Looks like I had him 46th overall on my Big Board that year. He faded somewhat toward the end of that spring for St. Mary’s, and I guess it really scared teams off; at the start of the year he looked like he might get into the late first round. Of course, his stuff is substantially better now than it was then.

Mike: What are your thoughts on the experiment of moving the mound back a foot?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to get a lot of pitchers hurt. MLB is incredible at failing to foresee the consequences of its actions.

Richard: Were you ever a baseball card collector?
Thoughts on the new Topps NFTs or NFTs in general?
Keith Law: As a kid yes. I would buy NFTs but I don’t want to sell off my South Seas stock.

Todd: Hi Keith – How did you rate Matt Olson as a prospect? What did you hit/miss about how he has turned out?
Keith Law: Made my top 100 once, then not the next year, then he was in the majors. This fluke start aside, he’s hit for some more average than I expected.

Rob: I enjoyed the Henry Davis article – I realize it’s too early for a mock draft, but any indication that teams’ thinking is evolving to have him as a top five and maybe 1-1 guy?
Keith Law: I ran that idea by a bunch of people before writing it, and nobody said it was crazy or just wrong. Most folks agreed that Davis should be in the top tier – I didn’t really go further than that – with the Vandy boys and Lawlar.

Food Fan: Hey, thanks for the chat! Cooking question. I have never used sherry vinegar but find myself with some recipes I want to try where I need it. I can’t find it easily without long drives to places I don’t usually go, something I just don’t want to do during a pandemic. Therefore, I will buy online. The options are overwhelming and I’m not sure which to select or how much to spend. Any specific recommendations?
Keith Law: I usually buy it at Whole Foods when one is on sale – any brand – because it is expensive. Jose Andres has one that’s good and often is $2-3 off at my store.

Mike: At what point does marijuana get federally legalized? And with that can we get the records of those locked up because of it exspunged?
Keith Law: I think that happens under this Administration. More than half of the population lives in states where it’s at least decriminalized. And it is such a waste of time and money to treat its possession or use as a crime. I’m in favor of the latter part as well.

Rick: You need to relax and stop trying to do the right thing.
Keith Law: Well that’s the worst advice I’ve ever gotten.

Jason: You mentioned weird defensive decisions – remember when the Phillies played Kingery at SS and Crawford at 3B for a while?  Did that make any sense?
Keith Law: No, but lo and behold, Crawford improved when he went to Seattle and played shortstop full time.

Jason: When are you coming out with a LawCoin?
Keith Law: Climate change is serious enough without me adding to it.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for all of your questions and for reading! I should be back next week for another chat, and I’ll be back on the Athletic’s daily baseball podcast tomorrow morning. Don’t forget to pick up The Inside Game, now out in paperback, at your local bookstore or online via Bookshop. Thanks again!