Klawchat 12/13/19.

My latest ESPN+ post covers a few stray transactions from the winter meetings, including the Nomar Mazara trade and the Tanner Roark signing, and my latest Paste column reviews the new games I saw at PAX Unplugged.

Keith Law: Klawchat. When you gonna ring it?

Moe Mentum: Any predictions on where Odubel Herrera will be when spring training starts – or ends?
Keith Law: Not with the Phillies. I wonder if some awful team – the Tigers, the Orioles – will decide he’s worth the backlash, because he has ability and they’d probably just be able to take him off the Phils’ hands for nothing. (I wouldn’t do so, but I’m saying someone probably will.)

JK: What changed from last year to this year to spur so much more activity at Winter Meetings?
Keith Law: I don’t quite know, but I’m thrilled. The Yankees getting in heavy helped, as did the Nats winning the World Series and making a serious, immediate push to retain one of their two big FA. Mike Rizzo doesn’t hesitate when he wants a player – he signed Corbin early last year, and signed Jayson Werth once upon a time while I was between the airport and the winter meetings on day one (or zero). He also probably gave this a nudge.

Delco Debo: Based on the Cole & Rendon contracts, is it fair to say that Harper & Machado deals do not age terribly & neither team should feel buyer’s remorse (contrary to what local Philly sports radio might be spewing)? Phillies & Padres both get longer tail of players primes.
Keith Law: Neither team should have any regrets about those contracts. Sports radio takes shouldn’t dictate what anyone thinks about sports.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: In the event you’ve read, would you recommend Dune?
Keith Law: The first book is wonderful. Everything that comes after it is trash.

Tony: It feels like the Phillies are throwing away so much value by constantly moving Kingery around defensively, and now with the Gregorious signing, there’s talk he’ll be playing third instead of second. Why won’t they just put him at second and let him excel?
Keith Law: That’s also what I would do, but Segura has never played 3b anywhere in pro ball. They needed a shortstop, so they got one, and now they have two second basemen and no current third baseman. If Segura can play third, problem solved. If not, they may put Kingery at third, where his arm doesn’t play, and now we have a new problem.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: What are your favorite modern christmas songs? Feel like the Pogues Fairytale of NY is criminally underrated
Keith Law: I just heard that one for the first time the other day, as it turns out. I still say Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” is the best new Christmas song of the last ~40 years.

Dave: Lots of rumors that Kyle Seager is on the block. Is it reasonable that Seattle can get anything useful for him, or is this just salary dump territory?
Keith Law: About $40 million left for two years, probably projects to 4-5 total wins in that period. If they chip in a little cash, I think they could get real value back.

Mike: Is it reasonable to think Andrew Vaughn’s ceiling is Freddie Freeman?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s the shape of Vaughn’s production if he hits his ceiling.

Deke: If you’re the Rangers, is it Donaldson or bust now? What do you do with the rest of this offseason?
Keith Law: He’s an ideal fit, but does it have to be him or nothing else? What about upgrading other spots, like second base?

Julio Rodriguez: Where do I rank as a prospect out of these options? Top-5, top-10, top-20, top-50, or top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: I won’t publish prospect rankings until probably the start of February, and I’m not going to spoil them now.

JR: You mentioned the Porcello signing for the Mets in your recent recap, but not Wacha. Guessing you view it same as me – decent depth move at a reasonable price with the hope he bounces back, but easy to cut him if he’s done.
Keith Law: Wacha came after I wrote that, I think. He’s also missed chunks of two straight seasons and last year was a disaster. Bit of a flier, low cost for them. Not a bad gamble.

Greg P: KLaw – any of the Rule 5 picks going to amount to anything or is it just a waste of time?
Keith Law: I wrote up the two picks I liked in the column linked at the top of this post. The rule 5 draft remains largely a waste of time.

Kyle KS: How do you treat Hyun-jin Ryu in free agency if you’re running a team? Plan on 25 starts a year out of a really good pitcher and anything over is just bonus?
Keith Law: Maybe put him on the peak Pedro plan, where he’s getting an extra day of rest every time the schedule permits it, maybe skipping a start here or there, to try to get 150-160 great innings and have him in October.

Sam: What was the difference between this year and the last few where things seemed to return to normal on the free agency market and not waiting until spring training for many of the top tier guys to sign?
Keith Law: One other hypothesis: Boras had the top 3 free agents, plus a few other major ones. It wasn’t Boras vs Lozano, like last year. Maybe one agent controlling the top end of the market made a difference.

Alex: The Giants effectively purchased a first round pick for $12M. What are your thoughts on the strategy and do you think teams will do this more? Do you think MLB has an issue with this because one of the argument against trading draft picks was they will be sold to the high market teams?
Keith Law: I think MLB has an issue with it because it reveals how badly first-round picks are underpaid.

Ben: What comes to mind when you hear “Baz Luhrmann + Master and Marg”?
Keith Law: I said to someone else on Twitter that I take hope in the fact that every previously reported adaptation of TM&M has failed to come to fruition.

Stanyon Turtze: Do you have a gut feeling as to how much (if any) correction there will be to the HR rates & distance in the coming season?
Keith Law: No, not at all. You can’t without knowing what the baseballs will be like this year.

Eric: am i being hyperbolic in thinking the end of the republic is near? one side, for the last 10 years, has broken every rule and norm and gaslights the country on a daily basis, while the other just tries to play nice and get stomped over on the reg. i think we’re at the point where “rules” and “norms” in government aren’t upholdable anymore.
Keith Law: If Trump wins re-election next November, I’d feel that way.

Debra: Do you still project Deivi Garcia to start? Or does the future reside in the bullpen? Still a top 50 prospect in your estimation?
Keith Law: Nothing has changed since I ranked him top 50 in July. He’s small, but I think he has the stuff to start.

Jeff: Dodgers linked to Lindor & Clevinger a lot recently, what would be a fair exchange for both sides in your opinion?
Keith Law: Depends on whether Seager is in the deal, but I think the Dodgers would have to put Keibert Ruiz, one of Josiah Gray/Tony Gonsolin, and Jeter Downs in such a trade. Cleveland shouldn’t sell those two guys for less than a home run package and I think that would be one.

Dylan: Going to Denver-area in May for a show at Red Rocks. Rockies are out of town, but any other recommendations for cool things to do/see/experience/eat in the area? Preferably low/middle budget.
Keith Law: (Nate Dogg voice) Smoke weed every day.
Keith Law: Also, i can’t recommend things to do in Denver unless I know if you’re dead.

Tom: Hey Keith, right before the Bundy trade, I saw posts from multiple people about how the O’s completely mishandled him. Do you agree, and where do you think they went wrong? Converting him to a starter in mid-2016 after he’d missed 3 years with injuries?
Keith Law: I have been banging that drum for at least four years now.

Trevor: What type of package would it take for the Reds to acquire Mookie Betts? It seems that they are trying to go all-in this year and that would be the ultimate all-in move. Does it start with Lodolo? Hunter Greene?
Keith Law: They no longer have the pieces to get it done. They squandered them to get Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig and Trevor Bauer.

Jeff: Klaw, do you think that the Central is there for the taking for a team like Cincinnati? Generally speaking (without knowing the cost), would they be best served by adding another bat like Ozuna/Castellanos, or an arm like Bumgarner/Ryu? Thanks for all that you do.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close enough to St. Louis or Milwaukee right now. If they would go pay for one of those starters, that might change the equation for me.

Adam: Fan reaction to the Padres’ trading of Buddy Reed made it apparent that he was one of the most overrated prospects in the farm system. Inversely, which prospect in the Padres’ system do you think the organization values much higher than the rest of the industry?
Keith Law: Who overrated him? I’ve always maintained that he can’t hit, back to when he was at Florida. You can’t watch him swing and think that’s going to work. He was just kind of famous.

Pat D: What’s worse, the ghiblis or the jibblies? (Or the jibblie jibblies?)
Keith Law: The number of people who’d get both ends of that joke (this is about something I tweeted today) is pretty small, but I’m sure I’d be friends with them all.

Jim: Pretty underwhelming first couple of additions to the Chaim Bloom era, no? Any thoughts on the two signings?
Keith Law: Underwhelming? What did you expect them to do? They had no place for Rendon, and it was clear ownership wouldn’t open up the wallet for Cole or Strasburg.

Brendan: Any idea why no one from the MLBPA (or a top free agent they’d be interested in signing) hasn’t challenged the Yankees facial hair rule?
Keith Law: I’ve wondered that myself. It’s such petty bullshit, and would never pass a challenge by a player who grew his beard for his religion (e.g., some Sunni Muslims or observant Jews).

Anthony: Jeter seems like a lock, but since it’s HoF season, what are your thoughts on Abreu, the other good first-year player? He reached 60 WAR & could still be a 5% candidate.
Keith Law: He’s kind of behind Rolen for me in the category of players the writers as a whole will likely undervalue … but Abreu is borderline for me too. As of right now, he’s off my ballot, and that’s even with an open spot.

Anthony: Reports in Milwaukee that the team lost money due to the high payroll despite solid attendance figures. Is this actually possible in this day and age or just media spin to get fans on board with shedding salary for a tear down?
Keith Law: (wanking motion)

Jacoby: Is MLB worried that the Astros sign-stealing mess is just a donut hole in the middle of a donut that’s actually inside of another donut hole in the middle of an even bigger donut?
Keith Law: Nicely played. My gut feeling on this is that they’re dragging out the investigation to try to figure out who the highest-profile figure is they can suspend (or worse) for this.

Max: What are your main reasons for why this Mariners rebuild looks promising thus far?
Keith Law: Objection. Leading the chat answerer.

Matt: Were you surprised that the Angels basically took the offer they made to Cole and just gave it Rendon? I would have guessed any offer to the latter would have been somewhat lower.
Keith Law: Is it? I thought they offered Cole more, but I could be wrong.

SPORTS RADIO: WE DEFINITELY SHOULD DICTATE WHAT EVERYONE THINKS! REMEMBER THAT RYAN HOWARD IS THE PRE-EMINENT POWER HITTER OF OUR TIME, KEITH!
Keith Law: He’ll never, ever admit he was wrong.

Andrew V: Have you or are you planning to read Catch and Kill?
Keith Law: Nope.

MikeM: Where does Betances end up and can he be as effective as he was before all the injuries?
Keith Law: Again, I can’t do much with health questions.

Jason: Would it be wise for the brewers to trade Hader? Or is it dumb to trade a guy who is that dominant with 4 years left of control?
Keith Law: Absolutely I would trade him, because the odds of him staying healthy and this good for four more years, based on the history of relief pitchers, are somewhere south of 10%.

Brandon J.: Probably rightfully so, the Dodgers have made it known that they do not plan to move Lux and or May. But if a Cleveland deal involving Lindor and Clevenger was in the works, should they deal these two plus additional prospects?
Keith Law: See above – and notice that I also excluded Lux and May.

Scott: I read your top music of the year column. I am curious as to where you find your music? I have Sirius and listen to a variety of stations but even then I had not heard of several of them.
Keith Law: All over the place. There is no one place. I ‘try’ a lot of stuff, too, because there’s just so much new music out there.

Aaron: Ashamed to admit I only learned about Jen Mac Ramos’ work after hearing about that tragic car accident. While reading the outpouring of love from you and others, I was genuinely curious if you (or a reader) could point me to some material that would help me better understand – in general – preferred/appropriate pronoun usage?
Keith Law: GLSEN has a good, short resource (PDF) on the topic.
Keith Law: By the way, if it bothers you (not you, Aaron, the general you) to have someone else tell you their pronouns, you should probably have a long talk with yourself about why.

Mike: Was Paying $12 million to obtain Will Wilson a wise use of resources?
Keith Law: Of course.

Paul: Does Mazara still have any mystery to him?
Keith Law: He’s 24, so you can’t give up on him, but his approach hasn’t changed in four years now – even though the Rangers worked extensively with him on it.

James Beard: Do you watch any cooking shows? What about home reno shows?
Keith Law: Right now, just GBBO. Home reno shows tend to bore me.

Jake: I’ve always wanted to read Dune, but the big-budget movie is probably my most anticipated film of 2020 (Villanueve is a genius), and now I have the age-old question: book first or movie first?
Keith Law: I always read the book first if I can.
Keith Law: I read David Copperfield in September because Iannucci’s film version is coming out … eventually?

Brian: Assuming Kieboom is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd baseman for Washington, should they be targeting the best guy regardless of position for the other spot?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I also want them to settle on a single position for Kieboom, so they don’t Kingery him.

Michael: What did you eat in SD?
Keith Law: All the things. Mission, Bird Rock, Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack, Rovino Foodery, Herb & Wood.

The Vandy man can: Where does David Price end up? What kind of return can the sox expect?
Keith Law: Feels like no trade is most likely. Will he pass a physical/review of his records even if someone agrees to take his contract?

Matt: Are the Cubs putting Bryant on the trade block solely for financial reasons? Or are there actual baseball reasons to trade him for pitching?
Keith Law: My guess is it’s 90% money, 10% baseball.

Kevin: Martin Perez for 6.5 million seems awfully high for a team trying to shed payroll. Does this move seem to indicate that the Red Sox feel confident in trading either Eovoldi or Price?
Keith Law: Or they see something they like that they believe they can fix.

Dan: How did the Ricketts get so, so poor? Poor Ricketts…
Keith Law: They gave it all to the GOP.

James: What’s your take on WIl WIlson, and the Giants Angels trade in general?
Keith Law: See my post on ESPN.com.

Snowy: Sitting in the cue for TOOL tickets, I remember reading that you weren’t a fan which kind of surprised me given some of your other musical tastes. Any particular reason or just not your thing?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t like their music … not sure how else to describe it. It’s boring.

Orwell: How can so many people avoid the truth? What kind of grip does Putin have on our country?
Keith Law: I never thought I’d see this kind of cultlike devotion to a party or a politician, particularly ones that, in this case, have dedicated themselves to unrolling decades of progress in freedom, equality, or environmental protections. People who live in areas adversely affected by rollbacks in environmental laws continue to profess their intentions to vote red. It’s the most effective mass gaslighting campaign I can think of.

Scotty D from Downingtown: What is more probable – an existing team relocating to Montreal or an expansion team being allocated there?
Keith Law: Neither, in my opinion. MLB isn’t keen to revisit a market where they failed once.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Rangers fans and media are hotly debating whether the Rangers’ reported 6 year, $200M offer to Anthony Rendon, with a 7th year vesting option, was a legitimate effort to try to land Rendon, or just the team going through the motions by making an offer they knew would be rejected so the team could say they tried. What say you?
Keith Law: Obviously legitimate.

Jason: What are your thoughts on the Josh Lindblom signing? Can he have success in MLB?
Keith Law: Yes, as a reliever. Fastball/cutter guy, pitches up a lot, don’t see him turning a lineup over with that pitch combo.

Colin: I’m still skeptical about analytics, i feel a bunch of Ivy League guys figured out a way to scramble statistics in a way to push out longtime baseball guys, and that’s not cool. Can you tell me why i should take WAR seriously?
Keith Law: As an Ivy League guy myself, I think you should probably stop talking out of your ass about “Ivy League guys.” It’s embarrassing.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the length of years on a contract is almost meaningless as is AAV. Since contracts are fully guaranteed, then what counts is how many points of WAR a team projects a player to give them over the life of the contract. If the total dollars divided by their decision as to how much dollars per WAR represents value is close, then you have a good contract.
Keith Law: The AAV matters for the salary cap – er, luxury tax. The length of contract matters for individual team budgets, because it might affect the owners’ willingness to pay for additional players at some point in the future.

Bob Pollard: Putting aside how great he is, does nine years for Cole give you any pause at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I outlined why in my reaction post. You can’t project any pitcher out that far.

Tyler: Given the young up-and-coming pieces in the A’s rotation and the fact that they overperformed the last two years, do you think there is any chance they push the Astros this year?
Keith Law: More likely they regress. Division will be tougher as well.

Jason: What do you think now that the 3 batter rule is in effect? Ruins some strategy or will be largely inconsequential?
Keith Law: Eliminates one-batter strategies, and I’m fine with that. I hate mid-inning pitching changes, just speaking as a fan.

Matt: I know this is a few years late, but you recently mentioned how Malcolm Gladwell’s Joe Paterno ideas are disgusting (and I agree). It did remind me, though, that I haven’t read Joe Posnanski in years because of his book on the subject. Is that too harsh? As a journalist, was Posnanski in an impossible situation?
Keith Law: I am friends with Joe and probably not in a good position to answer, but I will say that because he was already mid-project when that story exploded, he had no clear way out of or around it. You can’t just up and deliver a different book than the one you signed a contract to deliver.

silvpak: with treinen and (potentially) betances, am i crazy in thinking the dodgers don’t actually need to do anything? madbum on a decent deal would be a good fit (and the compedy value alone with sfg is worth it), but the offense is pretty set (even a bit overstuffed on the roster side) and i’d be perfectly happy letting gonsolin/urias/stripling/may/santana duke it out for slots 4/5/6 in the rotation (after buehler/kershaw/maeda). maybe hill back on a pillow/rehab contract, but other than that i think they’re better suited waiting it out.
Keith Law: I agree. Starting depth would always help, because so many of their guys have injury histories, and if they can go get a superstar like Lindor they should just do it. But they’re the favorites in the division right now.

Max: JA Happ was highly touted in the trade for Halladay. Has he lived up to the hype surrounding him from that time?
Keith Law: Happ was never traded for Halladay.

Federico: What are your feelings on the Nats effectively choosing Stras over Rendon? Is there a route back to high level contention for them if they can’t manage to get a Donaldson/Bryant level replacement?
Keith Law: I think they knew Strasburg wanted to re-sign and chose that route rather than the uncertainy of Rendon. Rendon’s the better player, obviously.

Ben: Do you think Brandon Marsh would be a realistic get for the Tigers, if they were to send Boyd to LAA? Do you see Marsh as more a solid regular or is there some more upside?
Keith Law: Solid regular with upside is about right.
Keith Law: I’d like that trade for both sides, by the way.

Matt: Why are so many old white dudes angry at a 16 year old child that wants to *checks notes* make the world a better place?
Keith Law: Because she’s interfering with their profits, and perhaps their errant belief that we will always be bailed out of our own mistakes.

Tim: Do you think Milwaukee is actually looking to trade Hader or is this just let’s put his name out there and if someone blows us away we will trade him.
Keith Law: The difference is semantic, no? If they put him out there, they’re at least willing to trade him.

Jason: Would you go to four years on Josh Donaldson?
Keith Law: I would not.

Richard: Lots of worry in Toronto about scouting director Steve Sanders leaving -although the team is saying having your mentor Lacava around will help in the transition. Is losing one guy that crucial ? Will they replace internally?
Keith Law: They have been model-heavy in their draft, and that tends to last beyond a single director. I agree with them that having Lacava around will help as well.

Trevor: Braves have a lot of FA/trade options being rumored around for 3B. Has everyone given up on Riley after a strikeout prone 2nd half at age 22 all while trying to play a new position at the highest level?
Keith Law: Well, trying to play a far easier position, and he was strikeout prone for a reason. There’s enough cause for concern about his production in 2020 to justify the team looking elsewhere.

Guest: I know you are high on Luis Urias, but is it possible that he fell in love with the long ball (esp AAA) that killed his OBP bona fides?
Keith Law: That is almost certainly what happened.

Ben: If things all break right, what is a good comp for Issac Parades? I’ve seen Jhony Peralta mentioned a few times in the past, but maybe that needs to be updated because the Tigers seem to have given up on having him as rotund SS
Keith Law: Paredes has zero chance to play short. He wasn’t good when I saw him at third in the summer. He can definitely hit, and has real doubles power, but I see zero projection there and I think this is kind of what he is – high average, doubles, not many Ks, mediocre D at third.

Ray: The latest rumor reported by the NYT is that Trump might skip the debates in 2020, citing an “unfair process”. Two things: One, I actually predicted this like a year ago, so kudos to me if it happens I guess. Two, god damnit his base would love that wouldn’t they? Probably a shrewd move by him.
Keith Law: Yes, and he can probably only lose support by going up against someone like Warren – and I would guess any Democratic candidate will be better prepared to spar with him this time around.

Andrew V: What round in the draft does the first player you’ve never heard of usually get drafted?
Keith Law: It’s been as high as the first round (Hayden Simpson – I had one note on him from the spring, and didn’t remember it at all when he was taken) but it’s usually the third or fourth.

Chuck: Denver: Drink at Falling Rock Tap House, one of the great craft-beer bars in the U.S. Visit Tattered Cover bookstore.
Keith Law: Heard great things about the Tattered Cover. Also I hear Sushi Den is the place to go for sushi.

Eric: I wanted to hire Jen Mac Ramos at a previous job. What a talent and what a great person. I hope the recovery goes well; I cannot imagine the hell it must be.
Keith Law: Indeed, it will be a very long road but I think I speak for all of us in the online baseball community when I say we are behind them 100%.

TJ: If the reports are true that Wheeler didn’t actually take the highest offer, how often does something like that happen with a high profile free agent? Does the MLBPA have an issue with things like that?
Keith Law: Highest reported offer isn’t always the most money. Local taxes come into play, for one thing.

Ray: Don’t you love the assholes online that mock people for things such as announcing their pronouns, and then demand that they educate them on why it matters? Like, if you really wanted to learn, go out and read about it, Sparky. You’ve already told on yourself by telling me it’s MY job to teach you.
Keith Law: I had someone pull that shit on me two weeks ago … saying I was “pandering” by listing my pronouns. Buddy, if eight characters in my bio (which you should never see unless you go to my profile page – it’s not on my tweets) bother you that much, YOU have a problem.

Casey: Do you have any venison recipes?
Keith Law: I do not eat any red meat other than pork.

Tim: Does Bryant win his grievance which was blatantly obvious to anyone at the time. How could a trade be completed without knowing how much control the acquiring team has?
Keith Law: I don’t think he wins because I don’t see what evidence he could use to support the contention that the Cubs held him down solely to manipulate his service time. You and I know it’s true, but how do you prove that?

Matthew F: I play fantasy baseball with with many great owners from all over the world and its great to see MLB heading back to London again in 2020. Have you heard if MLB wants to expose baseball in other markets worldwide?
Keith Law: I have, but I don’t think anything is locked in yet.

Casey: Is Elehuris a candidate for your top 100 again? Just looking at the stats it seems like he took a step back this year?
Keith Law: Look at the stats and where they came. They jumped him two levels (why?) and he wasn’t ready, plus he missed more than half the year with injury. It’s a lost season but I wouldn’t say he regressed.

Monica Lewinsky: Can we impeach Mitch McConnell???
Keith Law: Matt Bevin just pardoned a man convicted of beheading his wife. Maybe we should ask the voters of Kentucky what they’ve been thinking.

Mark: Just made my first Blueberry pie. I was thinking afterwards it might have come out better if I had cooked the fruit before filling the pie. What say you ?
Keith Law: No, you may have needed more starch to thicken it.

Eric: Just how disgusted are you at the Jonah Keri situation. I hope his family is safe, and that they don;’t have to deal with those monstrous allegations anymore.
Keith Law: It’s beyond words. I wasn’t friends with Jonah, but even knowing I worked alongside him at times makes my skin crawl. Also, why does the court keep releasing him on these trivial bonds, even after he contacted the victim in violation of a court order? How many charges does it take to at least require him to pay more in bail?

Ben: Assuming that ownership signs off on the extra money (a big if), Oakland should absolutely jump on Jed Lowrie just for getting Dom Smith, am I right? Dom Smith seems undervalued to me.
Keith Law: Not sure he’s a good fit for Oakland with Olson there, but I agree that some team should pounce on that. Smith could be someone’s regular at 1b. Maybe Baltimore?

Anon: Hey Keith. I think I’ve needed treatment for a while; I don’t sleep or eat well, I’m extremely irritable and moody, and I have constant plaguing thoughts about my state of mind and future. But the issue is I don’t know what kind of professional I should seek. Psychologist? Therapist? …psychotherapist? Any insight would help. Thank you.
Keith Law: You could start with your primary care doctor – that’s how I started after I had that panic attack while driving. She helped me figure out what treatment I needed.

Ridley: With Brexit looking inevitable and Scoex…Scexi…Scotland leaving the UK looking likely, I’m seriously considering it as a landing place. Have you ever been to Scotland? Any thoughts on it as a place to live?
Keith Law: I worry about my inability to communicate with the locals.

Kevin : Where do you expect Ronny Mauricio to begin his 2020? And do you think he sticks at short?
Keith Law: Definitely sticks at short. Probably starts in high-A.

Steve : I know its not the popular decision but doesnt it make sense to consolidate the amount of minor league teams??
Keith Law: Yes. Note that the minors themselves have no problems moving teams around – 80+ relocations since 1990 – but when MLB suggests it, it’s like they’re pissing on the flag. Many of those markets can’t support baseball, or don’t have the facilities needed. Meanwhile, you have amazing spots like Aberdeen only used about half of the season when they could and should be in a higher classification. We could debate one or two specific locations, but the majority of those on the public list need to go.
Keith Law: Also, you can’t say in one breath that you want minor leaguers to be paid more, and then object to a plan that would result in better working conditions for players.

Mick: I read Vandy Austin Martin will get a shot at short. Can he hold that position all the way to the majors?
Keith Law: I’d like to see it. He was ++ at third when I last saw him.

Van Skike: I never saw your thoughts on the new Beck album… I was disappointed
Keith Law: I was too.

Mark: How could the Veterans committee have blown it so badly with Lou Whitaker?
Keith Law: Call me when the Hall manages to find a writer or executive of color for one of their committees.

Ray: Did you see this female reporter who got her butt smacked by a man while she was on air? The insane thing to me is once the guy was identified, there was a very vocal minority online yelling “Leave him alone – he has kids!” I mean, what in the actual F?
Keith Law: Yeah, and he claimed he didn’t know where he was hitting her. He should be charged with assault. Fuck every man who thinks that is okay.

Rahn: If you’re Ben Cherington, who gets moved out in your plan to improve the Pirates?
Keith Law: I’d shop Marte immediately.
Keith Law: Take offers on relievers and even on Archer, see if someone else is willing to pay to try to rebuild him.

Jason: Is Mauricio dubon a major league starter
Keith Law: I think so.

Yinka Double Dare: In Wheeler’s specific case, even considering the local taxes he took less money – Illinois income tax is currently under 5%, income tax for Philly is about 7% incl. the state and local income taxes
Keith Law: I wasn’t saying that was the issue with Wheeler – I cited taxes as one possible explanation. Maybe Chicago’s offer was more backloaded. Maybe it included option years and they were factoring in buyouts. Rejected offers are never fully made public.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, and I believe that’ll be all for Klawchats in 2019. Thank you all for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be posting frequently to the dish in the next week, and reacting to any major signings or trades in the same time period, so keep an eye out for those. Happy holidays!

Comments

  1. Charles Bolling

    “Christmas in Hollis” is the best new Christmas song of the last 40 years.

    • Charles: try that other comment again without the vitriol and without misstating my own argument. You can disagree with me and still be civil.

    • Mom’s cooking chicken and collard greens

    • Charles Bolling

      Here is my third and final try. If you choose to delete me yet again because I strongly disagree with you, then that’s your right because it’s your website. But it doesn’t make me wrong.

      The assertion that Joe Posnanski had no choice but to write a puff-piece biography because that is what his contract called for is just making excuses for him. He could have chosen to write a different book, and his publisher would almost certainly have been thrilled. After all, scandal sells. Even if they were not thrilled, they could hardly sue him for writing about what he found when he went to Penn St.

      Posnanski decided to write the book that he wrote because it was the easiest choice. First, because it did not challenge his near-idol-worship of Joe Paterno. Second, because it involved the least time and least work. Third, because he’s spent a lot of time playing up his “aw, shucks!” personality, and he does not like to do or say anything controversial.

      If Matt chooses to interpret that as a reflection on Posnanski’s character, that is entirely reasonable. I know that I certainly interpret in in that way.

    • And Wonderful Christmastime is the worst of the last 40 years.

    • How dare you besmirch Sir Paul! 😉

      I was certain that song was not from the last 40 years, but, alas, I was wrong.

      But, seriously, I have the first Now That’s What I Call Christmas compilation, and there are some newer songs there that are truly horrible, much more so than Wonderful Christmastime.

    • If it is the below CD, I’m guessing your worst is either Bruce Springsteen or N Sync, though there’s quite a few I don’t even recognize.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Now_That%27s_What_I_Call_Christmas!

    • Tracks 13-16 on disc 2. Just awful. At least Britney tried to make hers actually sound like a Christmas song.

    • Charles Bolling

      I am a huge Beatles fan and have seen Paul McCartney in concert four times. And I am 100% ok with declaring “Wonderful Christmastime” the worst Christmas song of the last 40 years.

  2. Samuel Newman

    Per Ken Rosenthal a big reason Wheeler took less to go to Philly was that his wife is from New Jersey and they wanted to stay near her family. Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1202314411060408320

    • I don’t believe those claims after the fact. Remember Mike Hampton and the Denver school system?

    • Samuel Newman

      Fair point. Although for the record, I was 7 when Hampton signed that deal.

    • I understand skepticism of those claims after the fact, but it would be leverage-limiting to make those public before the fact, wouldn’t it?

  3. Charles Bolling

    And finally, the VC had three people of color on it this time–Rod Carew, Eddie Murray, and Ozzie Smith. So, attributing Whitaker’s exclusion to casual racism is both facile and unhelpful.

    • As I said, none of the writers or execs were POC.

    • Charles Bolling

      True, your statement was factually correct. And your implied argument was clear nonetheless.

    • It’s not an implied argument – I think the panel was absolutely biased. The writers and execs tend to carry more juice on those committees; the players hold the least. And the writers/execs were all white men aged 60+. If that group doesn’t back a player, the player has no chance of election.

    • Charles Bolling

      You have absolutely no evidence, beyond the color of their skin, that any or all of those men was motivated by racial considerations, either on a conscious or subconscious level. In the absence of such evidence, it is unfair to make such judgments, especially since they were open-minded enough to elect Marvin Miller.

      In addition, your characterization denies the three players of color much in the way of agency. Do you really mean to suggest they were not capable of asserting themselves and/or making the case for athletes they supported? That seems patronizing, from where I sit.

      I am *always* on the side of labor, and am broadly critical of MLB management, Hall of Fame management, and the process by which Hall of Famers are selected (both BBWAA and committee elections). But I also cannot agree with the assertion that the committee members simply must be guilty of discrimination, conscious or unintentional, solely because they happen to be old and white. What if you were on that committee? Would you be ok with someone assuming your vote is questionable because of your skin color?

  4. Charles Bolling

    You want me to try my Posnanski comment again? Very well.

    To suggest that he simply had no choice but to write a feel-good apologia is not only wrong, it’s offensive. He had other options, ones that might have required some courage, and might have cost him some money (though probably not). He chose, instead, to take the easiest and most profitable route. That absolutely reflects badly upon him. It’s not surprising that he and Joe Paterno got along so well, since Paterno made the exact same choice.

    If Posnanski had been writing a book about Harvey Weinstein when THAT scandal broke, would you tolerate a puff piece biography?

    • CB: Thank you. That’s all I asked for.

      And to be clear, I would have walked away, even if I had to return the advance money (which is probable – I have seen two contracts now, don’t think I could keep it all in that circumstance). I don’t agree with Joe’s choice here.

  5. Re: Yankees facial hair rule- At least now “Clean Cole!” will actually be a real thing…

  6. Tool is boring? Cmon. Sooooo good

  7. JA Happ was traded from the Phils to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade. The commenter must have gotten his Phillies “aces” confused. Oswalt was sort of done being an ace at that point and JA Happ has been a decent pitcher but mostly for the Blue Jays and I have no clue what the Astros flipped him for or when. This answers nothing.

  8. Not trying to be pedantic or rude but you linked an article and made a point about pronouns and then in a later post used the incorrect pronoun for Jen.

  9. Keith, can you provide an update on your contract status? Not sure if you’ve mentioned this, but I haven’t heard anything. I am hopeful that you will continue to work for that company as I subscribe to insider mainly for your content. Happy holidays to you and your family

    • I have no update I can share at this time. The moment I can share it, I will – I would not make you or anyone ask me for that.

  10. My take on Posnanski/Paterno is that writers should in general not sign up to write hagiographies because sometimes you’re going to get put in that position

  11. I’m in the same boat as Matt – I lost all respect for Posnanski when the Paterno book came out, stopped reading him then and will never read him again. Has he ever, anywhere, said anything bad about Paterno since the book came out? I haven’t read him, but I’ve been told that while he hasn’t necessarily defended Paterno, he hasn’t really criticized him either.

    • This is entirely reasonable, BTW. I didn’t question Matt’s decision.

    • I made the same decision as you, DEF. I will say I sympathized a bit for him — he’s not a wartime consigliere. But given that he was there, then…he had a professional obligation to be an honest broker of information, and he chose not to be.

    • I also stopped reading him, which is too bad. He was always a good writer capable of real insight. The Paterno thing kind of highlighted a tendency towards schmaltz that I had tended to put up with, but that I can’t ignore any more. I think he could have saved a lot of face if he had just said nothing when the allegations first came out and sorted it out with his publisher. I hope I would be able to do the right thing if ever put in such a situation.

  12. Christmas song: Carry Me Home by Hey Rosetta

  13. Keith, I’ve wanted the Orioles to pick up Dom Smith for a while, actually.

    Even if we presume they’ll hand Davis the mitten, they don’t seem inclined to move Mancini this offseason. He’s… well, not an OF. Would you suck it up with him in an OF corner and just play Smith at 1B?

  14. The Paterno book situation, to me, is one that is going to come down to the lines we as individuals are willing to draw. For me, I was mostly stunned that the *publisher* went ahead with it. I’m giving Posnanski the benefit of the doubt – who knows what he might have written for his website that may have ended up edited out or reworded. His name is on the book, but I can’t imagine his heart was in any part of it. Maybe he should have refused to write it, maybe I should have written him off for writing it. Maybe I should write off the people I respect who continue to associate with him (Mike Schur, Linda Holmes, Keith himself)? I don’t know…. at some point that gets exhausting. And it would be valid to say that maybe my personal exhaustion over drawing lines and writing people off is a drop in the bucket compared to what the subject of a biography tacitly allowed to happen under his watch. I feel like there must be a logical stopping point, and I think I picked the right one for myself, but over the past 7 years I haven’t stopped thinking about whether it was the right line to draw.

    • Charles Bolling

      I’m sorry but, once again, I feel this is making excuses for Posnanski. The day the allegations broke, Posnanski was all over Twitter saying “don’t rush to judgment.” And then, the NEXT DAY, Posnanski spoke to a Penn State class and called Paterno a “scapegoat”:

      https://deadspin.com/journalists-address-psus-joepa-class-this-morning-say-5858278

      In other words, Posnanski exhorted us all not to reach judgment when he had already reached his own. Furthermore, as others have pointed out, he’s now had close to 10 years to say SOMETHING about Paterno’s role in all of this, and he’s continued to be a part of Team JoePa.

      I have other complaints about Posnanski, too. I find his persona to be contrived and fundamentally dishonest. I don’t doubt that, in person, he’s a charming fellow. But in the time I was following his work, I have never seen anyone offer up so many variants of the “I can’t believe what a great review I got! I’m so embarrassed!” tweet/posting/comment. He also takes “stands” that are meant to seem provocative–like “Gold Gloves are stupid!”–but really aren’t. He’s like Steven Spielberg in that way.

      And finally, his job-hopping was nothing short of shameful. In particular, he lured many fine journalists to Sports on Earth, using his good name to get them to take a gamble with their careers. And then, after less than a year, he jumped ship for more money. Eventually, of course, SoE collapsed, and many of those folks were left high and dry.

    • It was the “scapegoat” speech for me. I didn’t draw a line there as a kind of intellectual exercise — I was immediately and honestly disgusted.

    • The last paragraph of that Deadspin piece gets at what I hoped would happen – the intended biography would be scrapped, and a writer like Joe would have the right amount of compassion (for the victims) to write the new story. My benefit of the doubt may be misplaced – he may have had more control over the fate/tone of the book than I thought.

      I think back to an early post of Joe’s, when he was processing how to proceed.The second-to-last paragraph outlines the hope that something positive could come from a terrible situation.

      https://wp.joeposnanski.com/underground/

      The comments on that piece are the same as what we’re saying now, though we have the hindsight of the book itself. I really wish the book hadn’t been written, hadn’t been published, but I still can’t bring myself to condemn someone who was caught so completely off-guard.

    • Right, he’s not the guy you’d send to cover the story. Still (and I say this as a trained, non-practicing journalist), there are professional ethical guidelines that should govern one’s response to being caught off-guard. Gather facts, report and chronicle. Don’t be a pep squad leader.