Klawchat 7/19/18

Starting at 1 pm ET. New Insider posts: my analysis of the Manny Machado trade, the updated top 50 prospects ranking, and my analysis of the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade.

Keith Law: Take the weakest thing in you, and then beat the bastards with it. Klawchat.

Seath: you talked how the Orioles waited too long to trade Manny. What non rental player(s) do you think teams should trade now in order to maximize values
Keith Law: Chris Archer particularly comes to mind. Michael Fulmer, but that’s less urgent.

Adam: Thoughts on William Contreras? Seems to be having a really good year.
Keith Law: Yep, he’s not far off from that top tier of prospects – whether that’s top 75 or top 100 or top 120 or so, I’m not sure yet.

Hinkie: You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?
Keith Law: Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

Craig: Where was Kyle Tucker before his promotion? And I’m guessing Yordan was left off due to position concerns?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank promoted guys. Mejia was on and then off and then on again, but he was the only one. Yordan has no position that I can see, and having seen him up close a few times, if he’s really 21 years old, he doesn’t have the physique or projection we typically ascribe to a player of 21.

Nate : KLaw, sure you’ll get a bunch of questions about the Manny & Hand deals, wondering if Kyle Lewis has re-gained enough value to consider top 100 and if Burnes is still top 100? Thanks
Keith Law: Burnes was top 20 before the season, I think, but he was also called up before the list. Lewis is not top 100 until he shows he can play regularly and can still handle an OF corner. That knee injury has been a motherforker.

Michael: Could you vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not in her district.

Michael: Do you think the number of draftees who didn’t sign this year is an outlier or the start of a new trend?
Keith Law: Outlier.

Steve: Wander Franco, a young Lindor at the plate? Better?
Keith Law: Completely different players.

Andy: Obviously there is no way to know for sure if it would have been offered, but in the offseason could Baltimore have gotten Andujar and Sheffield?
Keith Law: I don’t think there were any serious talks around Machado this winter. The Orioles have so many people involved in any such decision that even when Duquette knows what the right thing to do is, he has to wait for everyone else to agree before he can do it. I don’t think Sheffield/Andujar would have been an unreasonable request.

Joe: As an Orioles fan, should I be worried about Chance Sisco? He has seemed to be overmatched, plus it looks like he doesn’t have the backing of the coaching staff.
Keith Law: The coaching staff issue can be fixed. I firmly believe in the axiom that catchers develop later and I’m not worried about him.

Hinkie: Please rank these soon to be free agent LHSP’s: Drew Pomerantz, Patrick Corbin, Yusei Kikuchi.
Keith Law: Never seen Kikuchi, sorry.

J: Do you trade DeGrom now and what kind of package could the Mets get in return? Also, do Wheeler or Matz have enough value to return a top prospect?
Keith Law: Oh, duh, he should have been in my first answer along with Archer. Sorry, been a busy morning. I’d explore trades for all three and, yes, for Thor too. See what the market offers and go from there. I imagine Wheeler or Matz would have appeal as starters who might be decent long guys in October too.

OgieOgilthorpe: I’m curious as to your thoughts on errors as a valid part of defensive stats. The vagaries of errors and official scorers was quite evident in the ASG… Yellich mis-plays a ball to OF (lights?) for a base hit, and Votto reaches over the dugout fence in out-of-play territory. Error!
Keith Law: Errors suck and I don’t look at them.

Andy: I know the comparables on BBref are a pretty blunt tool, but Yadier’s comps include Tim McCarver, Sherm Lollar, Jason Kendall, AJ Pierzynski and Terry Steinbach. Definitely good catchers all, but none of them screams HOF. Especially since so much of his case resides on defensive WAR, which is probably wildly inaccurate in all directions for catchers, how is it even controversial that he isn’t a HOFer?
Keith Law: His case really relies on framing, which 1) I don’t believe is a basis for HoF induction, and 2) wasn’t even a well-measured thing when the Yadi-for-HoF stuff started, so we’re just retconning it into his dossier now. He’s a good player. He should be in the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I can’t see any way I vote for him for the MLB Hall of Fame.

Hinkie: What’s up with Logan Davidson ? He didn’t make the USA collegiate team this summer and now he is struggling on the Cape. Is he more of a top 10 pick in the 2019 draft, a later first rounder, or has he moved out of the top round ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t invited to the USA team – not the same as not making it. I think he’s a potential top 10 pick.

Justin : Any Red Sox remotely close to your top 50? What are the chances this is the worst farm system in baseball by the offseason?
Keith Law: Seattle probably has that worst farm system thing on lockdown. KC is worse too. Boston may not be bottom five. Their problem is more that the best guys are hurt, not that their best guys aren’t good.

A big dumb idiot: I know you were high on Sean Reid-Foley for a while, and the superficial stats are starting to look pretty good in Buffalo. Have you heard anything about his recent performance?
Keith Law: I saw him this year. Think he’s probably a RP in the end.

Adam D.: Any chance for Joey Bart of Heliot Ramos to crack the top-50 next year?
Keith Law: It seems very unlikely to me, given Bart’s hit tool, and how far away Ramos seems to be.

Blackburn: After seeing what elite relievers with control have fetched in trades the last few years. What would Felipe Vazquez fetch back in a trade?
Keith Law: I may never get used to him not being Felipe Rivero (that’s my fault, not his). I would have to think he’d be in line for the Andrew Miller sort of return – you get 3 years of him and acquire him at his peak.

PhillyJake: Did the Os do better over all than the compensatory pick they’d have received for Manny rejecting the QO at the end of the season?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Grant : I saw Griffin Canning or Brandon Marsh weren’t on your top 50 or the “considered” part of the article also. What range are they in for you?
Keith Law: Marsh was top 100 before the season, no reason he wouldn’t be again. Canning is a top 100 consideration but his durability is still a question.

Guest: How close is Mejia to the big leagues? With Hedges being an elite defender and SD having so many OFs, do the Padres move him to 3B?
Keith Law: Mejia is big league ready, and have you seen Hedges’ offensive performance?

Heal Nuntingon: Is Edgar Santana enough to get the Braves to come off of one of their young starters (Fried, Allard, Gohara)?
Keith Law: For a nice middle reliever? I doubt it. San Diego had to essentially do a two-for-one to get a top-level prospect for Hand.

Weinshie: Have you had a look at Alex Kirilloff yet? If so, your thoughts.
Keith Law: Yes. He’s on the top 50 today, linked up top.

Justin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes?
Keith Law: Also both in the top 50 today, linked up top.

Jesse B: What did Jesus Sanchez do or not do to slip out of the top 50?
Keith Law: It doesn’t really work that way – this isn’t a moving list. He’s a good prospect, but there are 50 better ones right now in my opinion, guys with more bat or more defensive or positional value.

The Big Enchilada: Joey Gallo appears to have regressed this year — is he just another Mark Reynolds type, or do you think he’ll improve going forward compared to what he’s done this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the potential to improve, but it will take a serious effort from him and the coaching staff to get him to further tighten his command of the strike zone. Someone asked on Twitter why Seuly Matias wasn’t on the top 50 or honorable mentions – and he wasn’t even close, FWIW – and the short answer is that his best case scenario right now is what Joey Gallo is today.

Chris: Do you still see Corbin Burnes as a solid SP, mid rotation or better? He has looked solid out of the bullpen this year, but it seems like the Brewers don’t really need him as a SP, especially with Jimmy Nelson coming back.
Keith Law: Solid SP, yes, if they need him there. Eventually they will.

Josh: Obviously a tertiary part of the trade, but at a glance Zach Pop seems like an intriguing bullpen guy. Does he have a closer ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Middle guy. I detailed it in the writeup on the trade.

myslas: I checked up on Miguel Amaya because he was starting in the Futures game and was surprised to see he has 12 HR with a .343 OBP in A-ball as a 19 year old. Is this a fluke or is this a breakout and he’s now a top 3 prospect in Cubs system?
Keith Law: He is their #1 prospect right now. Alzolay got hurt, Ademan has been and looked terrible.

Minty: Since it’s not a fantasy list, I loved the move for your #1 prospect while praising Vlad as well. When do you see Tatis as being ready? Watching Hosmer is rough.
Keith Law: Tatis could debut in September, but won’t because of service time/40-man considerations. I think he’s up by this time next year.

Joe: Keith, I didn’t see an Alex Well write up in your post about the Futures Game. Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Command guy, I believe 89-91 that day, a little less in longer outings, but can really pitch with some deception.

J.P.: Are Mejia’s chances of sticking at catcher more or less now?
Keith Law: They haven’t changed. Your ability is not a function of the team that employs you.

Justin : The Josh Hader thing blows my mind. Don’t these guys have handlers/publicists who check their Twitter history for hate like this?
Keith Law: This should be every agent’s job. Hell, hire an intern to search your players’ social media histories. Hader is hardly the first – Ryan Rolison had some tweet hoping Obama would be assassinated from 2012, for example. As an agent or adviser, you should grill your clients on social media history, and then doubt whatever they tell you and search anyway.

Garrett: How big of a difference is there between your top prospects? Like is Mejia a lot better than someone like Adell? And is Adell a lot better than someone like Kiriloff?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to give a precise answer to that. Is prospect 5 a lot better than prospect 10? Yes. How much? Not sure. Every prospect there has a range of potential outcomes, so if Prospect 10 hits his best case scenario while prospect 5 hits his median outcome, then prospect 10 will end up better, but that doesn’t mean the ranking was necessarily wrong.

Adam: Seems like the Braves have waited too long to shop Inciarte. Would he still have some value on his current deal given his abilities defensively?
Keith Law: Remember when I got pilloried by Atlanta fans for suggesting that they shop Inciarte? That was fun. Still has two years of control left on that deal, so I think there’s value, maybe two decent prospects’ worth. Would be sensible for Atlanta to do that rather than dump prospects for a playoff push this year.

Belieber: How close was the Biebs to the top 50? In the top 100?
Keith Law: Sorry to throw cold water on you this one time, but he’s not near to top 100 kind of company.

j: Any thoughts on Yankees’ Everson Pereira?
Keith Law: Just young. Can you be a pre-prospect? That’s what he is.

Sonny: RE Hader- when Twitter reacts so vehemently to a 17 year olds tweets from 7 years ago, doesn’t it lower the ceiling of our outrage for when someone is actually racist? The Twitter screaming seems pretty extreme, considering there are people out there being murdered and beaten for their race.
Keith Law: I’m not sure why the fact that people are being beaten and murdered for their race, ethnic origin (look up Muhammad Abu Marzouk), religion, orientation, etc. matters to this discussion; it seems whataboutist to me. And Hader’s tweets weren’t stupid – it’s not like he tweeted “Man, I love Nickelback!” They were offensive, across the board, to multiple groups. It’s reasonable to call that person to account for his words.

Matt : Keith, thoughts on Yankees pitching prospect Trevor Stephan? Is he a starter or reliever long-term?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one, but every scout i know who’s seen him says reliever.

Nick: How close was Peter Alonso to making the list?
Keith Law: There was only one player on the list who profiles as either a 1b or a DH, and that guy has an 80 hit tool.

Henry: Who are some of the Top 2019 College guys?
Keith Law: Davidson for sure. Stinson at Duke, but he’s a reliever long-term. Wilson at NC State. Langeliers at Baylor; he’s a monster. Would like to see Lodolo at TCU again, as he’s come along well since HS. It’s actually a bad college crop, though. I expect a HS heavy class.

BigSauce: no mention of Autsin Riley in your latest top 50…was it the lack of PA due to injury?
Keith Law: Wasn’t on my top 100 preseason either.

Bobby Higginson: Isaac Padares a top 5 prospect in the Tiger system right now?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so, even with concerns about him.

Mac: Any thoughts on Danny Jansen? Is his bat legit?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. Offensive catcher, just adequate behind the dish.

Greg: How much more value do you think the Orioles would have gotten for Manny if they had traded him this offseason, being that he was coming off a sub-par season? After 2016 was clearly the time to trade him and Britton but would have been tough for fans to swallow coming off the Wild Card.
Keith Law: The subpar season would have had no effect. Nobody I know thought he was somehow worse, especially since he raked in the second half as he had before.

Jason: are you encouraged by corey ray’s power surege?
Keith Law: Not really – heard from scouts he’s selling out so much for power that they think it’s impacting the hit tool.

Nicky: Keith – what do you see as a projection for Justin Dunn? Saw he almost made your top 50 list. Any comps come to mind? Love the work man thank you!
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more once he has a real LF behind him.

Ryan: Was Alex Reyes no longer eligible or were his injuries simply too significant a concern to warrant placing him in your top 50?
Keith Law: Eligible, not considered. Hard to forecast him as a starter right now given how little he’s pitched. Shoulder, then elbow, and now this.

Brian: Both Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley seem to have turned their seasons around. Haseley has been consistently hitting for a few months and Moniak has 37 games of .776 OPS in spite of having his wisdom teeth out. Have you gotten any more positive reports on them?
Keith Law: I have only gotten negative reports on both guys. And I’m not sure the wisdom teeth thing is really an issue.

Matt: Thoughts on Joey Bart so far? Hitting for a high average and showing his power.
Keith Law: In short-season ball, for which he’s quite old. And he’s struck out like a quarter of the time, which we knew coming in was an issue.

Adam: Would Allard, Fried, and Pache be enough to get in the game for Degrom? Too much?
Keith Law: I would ask if someone was holding Anthopoulos at gunpoint.

Nicky: What kind of slash line do you see from Pete Alonso in his prime years? Is his defense really that atrocious? Thanks man
Keith Law: Did you see him at the Futures Game? Atrocious is unfair, but he’s not a good defender at 1b.

Chad: In your last chat you said Taylor Tramell was “definitely not” a Top 25 prospect, but he snuck in at #25. Just a reaction to the futures game or industry consensus that he’s improving?
Keith Law: Industry consensus, and also seeing him at the Futures Game helped, because a criticism I had heard from multiple scouts turned out to be unfounded (or just out of date). His swing looked great in BP and in the game.

Guest: Thoughts on Jorge Guzman…can he stick as a #2 or #3 starter or is he destined for the pen
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Justin : What has been the best/funniest interaction with a reader during your Smart Baseball tour?
Keith Law: A couple came up to me on Saturday at Politics & Prose in DC, but it was clear he was the fan and she was just hanging out. He gave me his book to sign, we chatted, and as they’re walking away, she turns to me and says, “I don’t know baseball, but I think you’re funny.”
Keith Law: Also, I think I told the story last year of showing up in Atlanta to be greeted by the best friend of my late uncle. I hadn’t seen John in probably 20+ years, and he drove in a good distance to come see me and have me sign his copy. Nothing will beat that.

Joe: Have you gotten out to see DL Hall yet? Seems to be making huge strides this year.
Keith Law: No but i want to. Huge strides, or just being what he was? Really didn’t pitch much last summer, but reports match what I heard from last spring – it’s three pitches, command is lacking, mid-rotation kind of upside, very high floor because he’s LH and can get both sides out.

mike sixel: Kyle Gibson on that list of guys to trade now, rather than wait? Or can the Twins compete next year?
Keith Law: I think they think they can compete next year, so perhaps not.

Keys: Why do you think Baseball Twitter skews so far left on the political scale?
Keith Law: Baseball Twitter tends to be strongly rationalist. The online baseball community in general is more accepting of progressive ideas around the sport and more demanding of evidence in debates or discussions. Whether that is “far left” probably depends how far in the anti-science/anti-intellectual tank you have sunk.

Justin : I know you don’t “HATE” any team per se, but which team do you like the least?
Keith Law: Yours.

Brian: Hi Keith, love your work. I know you were a little lower on Joey Bart than some others, but do you currently have in your top 100?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank out 100 guys, but based on his predraft ranking and where those guys end up on my top 100s six months later, I’d say yes.

PhillyJake: There’s been a lot made in the Pittsburgh press about the Pirates pitcher’s reliance on the fast ball. The focus has been on Cole and Morton in Houston, about how they’re doing better throwing more breaking pitches and fewer fastballs. Have you any thoughts on this?
Keith Law: That’s true across baseball, right? The best teams are having their pitchers work more with offspeed stuff, contrary to maybe a century of pitching wisdom that you must work off or establish the fastball first, and every other pitch comes second.

Brian: Read an interesting positive report on Buddy Reed after some people saw him at the Futures game (mainly in BP). Has he evolved at all in a surprising way or is projection still the same?
Keith Law: Swing is a bit better. Defense was always plus. He’s old for high-A and that’s a good place to hit, so I need to see him produce in double-A to buy into the idea that he’s different.

Frank: Why did a reliever bring back a much better prospect in return as opposed to a starting 3B/SS who’s having the best year of his career in the bigs?
Keith Law: Two relievers, both with years of control remaining. Machado is a straight rental.

Marc (DC): Wheeler for Keibert Ruiz, who says no.
Keith Law: Dodgers laugh at that. Friedman/Zaidi rarely trade prospects of any significance. That they traded Diaz makes me wonder if there’s something we don’t know about the player.

Rick C: Do you not have any concern over Pache’s plate discipline?
Keith Law: Not in the least. He’s 19 in high-A.

Vin: If you were running the Giants, what would you do with Bumgarner? I can’t imagine they’d trade him, but it doesn’t seem like paying him $200 mil + on a so-so team is a good idea.
Keith Law: I would trade him. I don’t see any way they do.

Jon: re: Ocasio-Cortez. But I read on Twitter that you live in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Gentrified Brooklyn. All my utensils are hipsterling silver.

Jeffrey Lebowski: Can teams be/stay successful if they seem really bad at early-round drafting but are fairly dominant in the Latin American market? The city of Philadelphia awaits your answer with baited breath.
Keith Law: Yes. Look at my top 50 today: first five guys were all July 2nd signings.

Kirk: If Vlad Jr were at first base and not third, would he have been #1? Or would the less skilled position keep him at #2?
Keith Law: He can’t play third. There’s zero chance of that, between his footwork and his size already. The ranking reflects the probability that he’s a 1b or a DH, but he’s not anything else.

Harry: Will you be attending tomorrow’s Under Armour game?
Keith Law: I will indeed.

Joe: Keith, is there any scouting notes you can provide on the high school hitters from their home run derby over the weekend?
Keith Law: You can’t scout a HR derby. Especially not with the silly balls they were using.

Dan: The All-Star game was a perfect example, I think, of what baseball is becoming: long stretches of K’s & BB’s followed by a HR here and there and a couple scattered hits. The game feels way more boring than it has been at anytime in my life. Do you think this is true and what are some remedies?
Keith Law: I’m a broken record on this but raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Nick: Hi Keith. In regards to Bichette: Are you hesitant to think he stays at SS due to his arm or range? If it’s his range, do you think it’s becoming less important with all the shifting and defensive alignments? I mean we are in the new age of positionless baseball.
Keith Law: Still have to have range. You can shift guys but that doesn’t mean every ball is hit right at them.

John: The new Chvrches album doesn’t exactly break any new ground and the lyrics aren’t quite up to par with the last couple, but Graffiti slaps as much as any song of theirs, no?
Keith Law: No, I hated the record.

Jon: Do you ever mistakenly say would when you mean “wouldn’t”?
Keith Law: I meant to say that Luis Severino wouldn’t be a reliever.

wickethewok: Thoughts on the Trogdor Kickstarter? I watched the gameplay video, but I’m not sure if it would end up on the pile of games that are more fun in theory than practice.
Keith Law: I’ll check out the demo at Gen Con. It’s probably a great theme on a trivial game, but I’ll try it.

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to not sign Stewart?
Keith Law: Unless you know what they found in his physical, you can’t even ask that question, let alone answer it.

Dane Dunning: Was I close to the top 50? I’m a very high floor starter if you ask me.
Keith Law: You’re also out for the year with a partially torn elbow ligament that might still end up requiring surgery.

Nick: I know it’s only 100 AB’s in the GCL, but do you have any early reports on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: on the tools, yes, very positive, higher upside guy than Gimenez, who is obviously more advanced but doesn’t project to impact like Mauricio might.

Oscar: Why are so many people so quick to jump to “he was a kid and said something stupid” defense for Hader? When I was teenager, I didn’t come anywhere NEAR saying something as stupid or offensive as he did (and I was a really stupid kid). And he did it multiple times for Pete’s sake.
Keith Law: Right. Stupid is “Nickelback is the best band ever!” It’s not … that stuff Hader said. That’s much worse than merely stupid. These are opinions that can change, and I will gladly accept that he may no longer be that person, but he left all that shit up on his feed for anyone to find, too.

Dan: Maybe I don’t fully understand the projected/anticipated value, but it seems like the Orioles are getting amazing value for 2 months of Machado. Even if Diaz is just an average regular, he alone will far exceed the WAR of 2 months of Machado, no?
Keith Law: If he’s an average regular, sure. There’s always a chance he’s less than that. And the point is not a WAR to WAR comparison, but whether they maximized what the market would pay. Getting back more WAR than you traded does not mean you got the most value back you could have.

Jon: Do you think Manfred realized how jerk-ish he sounded when calling Trout out for not being cooperative in marketing?
Keith Law: I absolutely, firmly believe he did not realize it until after the fact. I disagree with the Commissioner on many things. I do not think he is a jerk, or means to sound like one.
Keith Law: Bud, on the other hand … i had my doubts.

Mike F: Love your writing and I think I just missed you at the Futures Game. I realize Nate Lowe was too old for High A but he seems to be putting up the same big numbers in AA. Any chance he is a emerging as a sleeper prospect?
Keith Law: More like a second-tier guy, has to hit at every level to prove it given his age and position, but I don’t see any reason he can’t/won’t at least produce enough to be a big leaguer.

Mark: What was your favorite dining experience while visiting Italy ?
Keith Law: The pinsa, a different type of pizza from the Lazio region, that I ate with my cousins at Pinsotto in Nervi, which is a neighborhood at the eastern end of Genoa.

Enrique: Thoughts on Elehuris Montero? He someone you think makes your top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Doubt that. Bat over glove right now, not sure where he plays. A prospect, though. Top 100 is still fairly selective.

EL: Could the Giants have a top-10 farm in a year or two?
Keith Law: Sure, if they trade Bumgarner and Posey.

Brian: What would be your guess on the trade value of Hedges? Could you bring back a top 100 prospect for him just based on his defense?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that at all.

Scott: I cant believe I am going to make this argument but here it goes. With a future outfield of Eaton, Robles, Soto, and Taylor are the Nats better off not throwing $300M-$400M at Harper if that means they will strapped for cash and will not be able to re-sign key assets like Rendon and his BFF Turner down the line. If I had the choice between Rendon, Turner, and maybe another solid SP vs Harper I think I would choose the former. Should the front office view it this way?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s quite reasonable, and I’m a huge believer in Harper and think he’s going to be worth $300MM+. He just doesn’t line up with the Nats’ needs.

Jeff: Adley Rutschman as an early 1-1 possibility next year or at least top 5?
Keith Law: I couldn’t say never, not with Bart going 2, but to me that is overly aggressive.

Andrew: Do you see Rockies parting with a Rodgers, McMahon, or Lambert at this deadline?
Keith Law: No to Rodgers or Lambert. The way they’ve handled McMahon makes me think they would part with him – but I have zero inside info on that.

Tom: Any market for Britton? He seems to have gained some velocity and regained his sink in his last few appearances.
Keith Law: Oh there’s a market – the question is whether the return will be acceptable. I’d still acquire him, but I’m not paying a Gleyber-plus price.

Jim: you’ve probably been asked this before so I’m sorry if I’m repeating it but do you see Brendan McKay sticking as a 2 way player or will/should he commit to one?
Keith Law: It’s actually in the top 50 today – I answered that exact question.

Beau: Is Huddson Potts for real? He’s putting up really strong numbers for a 19 yr old in High A.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, was one before the season too. Still very young, looks like he’s going to stay at third too.

Jake: Anyone in the top 50 that you hadn’t heard of two years ago?
Keith Law: Two years ago Wander Franco was 15. So the only way I could say I’d heard of him is that he has two brothers also named Wander Franco.

Jack: Is Adam Haseley the second best position player prospect that the Phillies have? (Behind Bohm)
Keith Law: Ortiz. Ortiz might actually be better than Bohm, but Bohm is playing third for now and I’ll give him a nod because he might stay there, while Ortiz is in LF but is going to be a 1b.
Keith Law: I really like Muzziotti too. He can really hit, and he can run. Not very disciplined at the plate, but for now, while he can hit everything, it’s OK.

KLaws over Replacement : Are more teams opting for quantity over quality regarding prospects in trades? It seems like it with machado trade being the latest example but it might just be confirmation bias since I’m still bitter the yankees didnt get Cole
Keith Law: If you can’t get quality, you go for quantity. The Orioles did not do badly here. I can’t emphasize that enough – I am not saying they fared poorly, or got robbed, or fucked up. That’s not right. I’m saying that the return would likely have been much higher in the offseason.

Rob: Mejia at 3b… just curious… 3b has been a black hole for years for the Padres. Could he be slightly below average there defensively?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’ll have the footwork or agility for it.

Marxist Lennonist: How would you compare the package the Dodgers gave up for Machado to the package the Dodgers gave up for Darvish last year? Machado is a much better player than Darvish, but the Dodgers didn’t seem to give up enough more talent to account for the difference.
Keith Law: Oh yeah, this is way more.
Keith Law: for Machado, I mean.

MIKEPCFL: So the Orioles say they are going to look into adding more scouting, using analytics and maybe getting into the international market. They should catch up to the rest of the league in how many years?
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, but Duquette’s contract is up, and if he’s not the GM next year then the words won’t amount to anything.

addoeh: Odds Kelenic is a top 10 prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: Not impossible. 10-15%.

JP: The first thing I’d tell my client is to simply delete their social media accounts and start mew ones from scratch. Simplest fix.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

Ryan: I’m getting errors so apologies if duplicate question. Is Knizner enough of a prospect that the Cards should consider moving Kelly?
Keith Law: If they’re not going to play Kelly any time soon, yes, because he’s ready, and Knizner, while not as good as Kelly, is also a good prospect.

Harris: You have Tatis above Vlad Jr. However, it seems the media hype is bigger for Vlad Jr. Why do you think this is?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. is great. His dad is a Hall of Famer. He has unbelievable power, which makes for good highlights. But Tatis is a shortstop with incredible skills on both sides of the ball.

Steve: Were Alonso or Gimenez close to making the top 50? Is defense the thing holding Alonso back from being top 50?
Keith Law: Alonso I answered above. Gimenez isn’t close. I don’t think there’s much ceiling there.

Larry: Where would Carter Stewart have been in your top 50?
Keith Law: Top 25-ish? But again, I have no idea what’s going on with him. I can only grade the player I saw in the spring, but I don’t know if there’s a health consideration.

Jeff: Could Adley Rutschman go 1-1? Any catcher ever picked first?
Keith Law: Steve Chilcott was the first overall pick in 1966. He never reached the majors. The second pick was Reggie Jackson.

Lilith: So is Iglesias now the premium reliever on the market? Who would be most interested?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t every contender be? I’m not being flippant – who wouldn’t be better of for having him?

Chris: Why do you have verdugo ranked so low?
Keith Law: I don’t. I think I have him in just the right spot, actually.

Jefferson K.: How bad would Pache’s bat have to be to not be a big league starter?
Keith Law: He’s going to be in the discussion for best defensive CF in the game when he gets there. You don’t have to hit much – and he’s going to be a 20-HR type – to be a starter when you’re saving 15+ runs a year with your glove too.

Greyson: Has Jake Rogers’ hitting tool regressed, has he gotten unlucky, or was there a major hole in his swing that he hasn’t patched? Why is he having so much trouble making contact?
Keith Law: He couldn’t hit last year – I saw him, wrote about it, then wrote it again when he was in the trade. Just an older guy in high-A beating up some bad pitching, but he couldn’t hit quality stuff at all.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you’ve said before that you have come around some to Austin Riley. I’m still confused about him though. How valuable is he really if he’s striking out this much?
Keith Law: The contact rate & bat speed remain the concerns. He’s done wonders with his body, become a legit third baseman, and has real power.

Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet?
Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon.

Joseph: Now that you have finished reading all the winners of the Pulitzer, do you have any other reading “challenges” you wish to pursue?
Keith Law: I have other lists I use when perusing bookstores – Booker winners, Hugo winners (just four left, and I own two), the top 100 lists the Guardian or Modern Library put out – but I’m done pushing myself through miserable reads just to finish checklists. I think.

Keith: Is Kyle Lewis still the Ms top prospect? Any observations on him from the futures game? Would he slide in the 100-150 range?
Keith Law: Might take Evan White over him.

Defensive Woe-rioles: Cedric Mullins has done nothing but produce the last 2 years in AA/AAA and looked good in ST but missed your top 50. Is he a top 100? Close?
Keith Law: Not top 100.

Slick Rick Hahn: You still holding any Lucas Gioltio stock as we enter the 2nd half or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: I’ve seen enough signs of progress in the last six weeks to still think he’s going to be a good big-league starter.

Ryan: How do you see Dakota Hudson moving forward? I’m hoping he’s closer to a back end of the rotation starter than to a Matt Bowman.
Keith Law: I feel like it’s about 90% reliever with him. Other scouts who were there Sunday all said the same to me – asking how he was a first rounder with that delivery and repertoire. (He was really good that spring in college, though.)

Joe: Shane Bieber isn’t even close to the top 100? Well Eric Longenhagen certainly disagrees. The guy sits at 93 with plus plus command and solid offspeed pitches.
Keith Law: OK, I’ll tell Eric you’re thinking of him. (And no, Bieber doesn’t “sit at 93.”)
Keith Law: Gotta run, phone call coming up right now. Thank you all for reading, for chatting, for coming to the book signing on Saturday or finding me on the concourse on Sunday. Quick reminder I’ll be in Acton, Massachusetts, at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore on Saturday, July 28th, at 1 pm, to talk Smart Baseball and sign your copies. Hope to see many of you then!