Klawchat 2/22/18.

New content – I reviewed the amazing competitive legacy game Charterstone for Paste, and wrote up the three-team Souza-Drury trade and JD Martinez signing for Insiders.

Keith Law: Don’t let the walls cave in on you. Klawchat.

addoeh: Please rank these common reactions to dad jokes. A) Subject turns to you and approves of joke. B) Subject turns to you and disapproves of joke. C) Subject turns away from you trying to stifle laughter.
Keith Law: Everyone laughs. Some people just try to hide it.

Scott: What’s a proper punishment for these disgusting conspiracy theorists? Have them fired from their jobs? Exiled? Beheaded in the town square? I mean who wouldn’t blindly trust our outstanding corporate media and government despite a history of false flags, CIA black ops, and programs like Mockingbird?
Keith Law: Fired works for me. And banned from social media. False flag operations that took place a century ago aren’t relevant to claims that there’s a network of crisis actors paid by a specific Hungarian Jew with the complicity of all media … you idiot.

Ray Grace: I just read a fascinating article on the Athletic about Alex Wood going full time out of the stretch instead of the windup, in part because Strausburg had so much success doing that last year. I’m curious of your thoughts on that.
Keith Law: Whatever he’s comfortable with. Dude still really has no history of staying healthy as a starter.

Seb: Keith – I understand Austin Beck is kind of a lottery ticket for the A’s and why he wasn’t included in most of the reputable Top 100 lists. However, he was the 6th pick less than 9 months ago. What do you see as his ceiling? Thanks and keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Ceiling is at least an above-average regular in an outfield corner … I guess CF is possible given his speed, but he’s a long way off. The problem for him if you’re placing value on him today is probability. There’s a high risk he never gets out of AA, given where his approach is right now and what he did last summer.

Mike: I was looking at various minor league MVPs and curious if you had any opinions about either Darick Hall or Fernando Kelli. There’s almost nothing out there about Kelli.
Keith Law: That’s because Kelli hasn’t played in the US yet. Hall was 21 in low-A, not a prospect, older guy with power and poor plate discipline.

Albert: Hey KLaw, love your chats. Rangers questions, do you think Gallo takes a huge step forward this year, perhaps even into Aaron Judge territory?
Keith Law: I’m a Gallo fan, have been since he was in HS, but I think forecasting him into Aaron Judge territory would be purely wishful thinking.

Robert: Keith, what are your thoughts on blaming school shootings (or any shooting) on “mental illness”? I’m in favor of stronger gun restrictions for those with actual mental illness, but this debate is going to intentionally or unintentionally stigmatize people experiencing mental illness.
Keith Law: That’s totally what it is – it takes advantage of the general public ignorance about “mental illness,” particularly that it is all one thing rather than a broad spectrum of disorders from depression and anxiety to sociopathy, psychopathy, and antisocial or narcissistic personality disorders. And it diverts attention from the actual issue at hand, which is that no civilian has any valid reason to own a semiautomatic weapon.

Dr. Bob: Good afternoon, Keith. You saw Derrick Goold’s article about Mike Maddux wanting Cards’ pitchers to elevate the ball some as a way to counteract the hitting trend to lift the ball. What do you think?
Keith Law: If that’s a one size fits all approach, then I don’t like it. Maddux has a mixed track record with young arms from his last few stops, and that approach is one reason for it. You can elevate the ball if you throw particularly hard, or have a high spin rate on your four seamer, or have deception, or have plus command. Many big league starters don’t have those things, or maybe have just one, and having them try to attack the top of the zone is just going to mean more fly balls.

Tony P (@disguyyy): (take 2) Hi Keith, Do you find yourself going down rabbit-holes during times like the last week? It’s been so hard to stay focused when I see misinformation or something I feel responsible for correcting then next thing I know, I’ve done 20 minutes of research just to debunk some idiot on the internet. How do you reel yourself back or avoid it in the first place?
Keith Law: That’s generally time to walk away from the computer. I’m particularly prone to clicking on one thing and waking up 20 minutes later having read four articles and learned a lot but accomplished none of what I sat down to do.

dave: I’ve never seen this simple rule change discussed to improve pace-of-play and shorten games. What if a pitcher had to face a minimum of two batters instead of just one?
Keith Law: That’s been discussed at least since the 1990s. Doesn’t seem to be any desire to do that within MLB.

Manny: Where should devers bat in the Sox line up. Top third, middle third? Does lefty, righty alternation really matter much?
Keith Law: L/R alternation matters for late in games; you don’t want a string of LHB with platoon issues whom opposing lefties can carve up. I don’t know their lineup offhand to say where Devers should bat – he’s probably not among their top 3 hitters so I guess below that. As long as he plays every day, I’m happy.

Rob (Gilbert): I think I remember you saying that you started playing Pandemic: Legacy. How many characters did you use (or did it vary), and did you ever finish?
Keith Law: We didn’t finish S1, just because we keep getting other games (for me to review) and we got caught up in Charterstone lately.

Sandy Kazmir: Spin me tales about why I shouldn’t hate everything upon learning my favorite baseball player will miss most of the next two years.
Keith Law: Honeywell’s not officially out for 18 months … but yeah, doesn’t sound good, and I’d be pretty damn disappointed too with him right on the cusp of a debut. If he’s done, then I guess Andriese becomes the 4th starter and Banda starts in the pen?
Keith Law: Sorry I don’t have something uplifting to tell you, though.

Adam Doctolero: What would you say your core organizational philosophy would be in regards to drafting/player development?
Keith Law: Doubt that’s anything I could distill into a short chat answer. That’s probably a three-page essay.

Chris: I’m still intrigued by Gavin Cecchini. Feel like he has utility player potential at 3B, 2B and OF (hasn’t played out there yet but I don’t see why not give it a try as he’s stuck in AAA). What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Can’t throw enough for 3b.

Jason: Keith…is there an obvious move for StL to make? Or are they better off at this point to see what they have in rotation and bullpen and adjust from there?
Keith Law: yes, I think going after a bigger starter would help. They have OF and P surplus in the upper minors. I like Flaherty a ton, but they can upgrade on that spot for this year and let him start in AAA for a few months.

Jon: What are you looking for for Max Kepler this year? Assume he will get some good run in Minnesota?
Keith Law: Not quite sure what you’re asking in the second question. I expect continued improvement at the plate – he’s always developed on a delayed sort of schedule, unsurprising for someone who grew up in a non-baseball country.

Zach: What to do with AJ Reed? Has to be a trade right? Does his bat still project as a quality hitter?
Keith Law: I’d take a flier on him. Actually thought he’d be a good fit for Tampa Bay, although Cron probably blocks him now.

Nick: Did the Yankees give up too much for Drury? Two top 20 prospects from a great system seems like a lot to me.
Keith Law: It’s not a lot. Even that framing, which I think underestimates the gap between their top 10-12 and the rest of their top 20, doesn’t sound bad … how many teams really have 20 good prospects? Maybe two right now, if that?

John: I read Brian Kenny’s Ahead of the Curve. Does Smart Baseball offer any different takes or more of the same?
Keith Law: It’s not the same, since I wrote it.

Jack: Would the Phillies be smart to sign Arrieta?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Should more positionless-AAAA bat-only types be tried at catcher? I saw Mets were giving Philip Evans reps there and think it’s a low-risk, high reward move.
Keith Law: I vaguely remember him trying to catch years ago, maybe as an amateur? Kind of a Tony Wolters thing? You have to have the right body, arm strength, and some athleticism to do it. And it’s a ton of work.

Sean: Correct move for Detroit to go move Castellanos away from the hot corner to make room for Candelario? Not like he’s a stud defensively either. But both seem to be able to hit.
Keith Law: Yeah, I think it’s time to turn the page permanently on Castellanos at third.

Jay: If you know, what was the drug Whitley was suspended for, and why all the secrecy?
Keith Law: I think I know, but I don’t know with enough sourcing to report. I think the secrecy is inadvertent – not a steroid, not weed or coke or something worse, so it doesn’t fit neatly in MLB’s buckets. (It was caffeine.)

Larry: I was a little disappointed in your Brady Singer answer last week. Did you get an update from when you last saw him in April of last year? Is the AA and stuff improved?
Keith Law: Disappointed in Singer? He’s had the same arm action since high school and it hasn’t changed. I’ll see him tomorrow night at Miami and Kowar Saturday.

Jason: Regarding StL outfielder prospects…which would you prefer to keep and which would you prefer to trade?
Keith Law: Not counting the big leaguers? I don’t think they have anyone I would HAVE to keep. If you’re getting someone like Archer, you make any of them available. I happen to love Mercado and think there’s more growth there, but I would trade him for sure in the right deal. I have said I think O’Neill is the most blocked, and thus the first name I’d make available.

Luke: Are the Rays really that much worse off than they were a week ago?
Keith Law: I assume this excludes Honeywell? I agree. Maybe two wins worse. Where they sit, that’s essentially zero.

JC: It won’t push them into a contender per se, but considering the Braves are projected to be sub replacement level in the corner OF not including Acuna, should they at least check in on Dickerson? It would also make Acuna not on the OD roster slightly less indefensible
Keith Law: If you can get Dickerson essentially for free, then yes, definitely.

Machado : How do you feel about macahdo moving to SS, doesn’t he project better as a 3B? And do you think he will live back to 3B
Keith Law: Projects very well at SS. I never thought he’d have to move – he moved for Hardy.

Chris: Sandy hinted that John Ricco could be his successor. Mets fans don’t know much about him. Thoughts? (Could also easily see Omar Minaya coup with how dysfunctional they’re run)
Keith Law: I know John a little, but have no experience working with him, and my understanding is he’s worked mostly with the major-league side of operations there so I don’t know a lot of people who’ve worked closely with him either.

Eric: Hi Keith,
What do you think the ceiling for Hudson Potts is this year? He really found his power in the 2nd half of 2017. Can he keep it going and crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Plate discipline/pitch recognition is (are?) his main flaw. Still just 19 this year, though.

Evan: Hey Klaw, got an Anova for Christmas and absolutely loving it. I know you’ve been off of the red meat, but what’s your favorite use for it? Pork chops, chicken thighs? Any special recipes? Thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: Chicken thighs, five hours at 165, then sear off to crisp the skin. I call it the Chris Crawford special: little bit of chicken thighs and cold beer on a Friday night.

Jonathan: Water: Sparkling or Still?
Keith Law: Sparkling, please. (burp)

Nick: With the high washout rate of HS arms, would it be crazy for the Reds to consider moving Greene for a piece closer to the majors? I wouldn’t give him away but if he can be the centerpiece for someone like Chris Archer, for example, should the Reds pull the trigger?
Keith Law: Arms like his don’t come along very often. Some risks are worth taking because the payoff is so high even if the probability is low.

Jim: …not to mention this Administration removed restrictions on people with mental illnesses buying guns…
Keith Law: Please do mention that.

Sally Fan: How many “aces” are there in the majors? Is this a relatively stable number year to year? How much does this play in to evaluating “ace upside” in minor leaguers?
Keith Law: I have personally defined ‘ace’ during my career as someone who’d be the #1 starter in half or more of the rotations in the majors in a typical year. By definition, that would center around 15, some years a few more, some a few … fewer. I do not agree that there are 30 aces. There are 30 nominal #1s, but as the scout Abe Lincoln once said, if you call a dog’s tail a leg, it’s still a tail.

Jay: Thoughts on who came off the best/worst in last night’s town hall?
Keith Law: Didn’t watch.

John: Someone suffering from the broad catch-all “mental illness” is 5x-10x more likely to be the victim of a violent crime than to be the perpetrator depending on the study you look it. Its a red herring of an argument that people find way too compelling.
Keith Law: Analogous: Crazy evangelicals & bigots pushing trans bathroom bills, when trans people are almost 4 times more likely to be victims of violence … oh, wait, sorry, that’s 4 times more likely to be victims of POLICE violence. 47% of trans people will experience a sexual assault in their lifetimes. If there’s a trans person in a public bathroom and I walk in, I’m more worried for him, not for me or any children in the facility.

Jack: All your recent amateur scouting has got me thinking – do you believe there’s anybody on the planet that throws 100 MPH+ that you’ve never heard of before? Thanks!
Keith Law: With a baseball pitcher’s delivery? Doubt it. There are probably kids who can throw a rock or other object fairly hard, but 100 mph+ is a combination of a genetic gift and years of throwing.

Jon: Keith, why does it feel like the Florida teams aren’t getting decent returns in their tanking/rebuilding efforts? Is the playing field more level? Are the front offices of these two teams behind? Desperation?
Keith Law: Revenue bases are very low for both clubs.

Arin, d-town ca: Can Bryce Brentz be an everyday player for the Pirates?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Too much swing and miss.

Luigi: All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be?
Keith Law: His skill is extremely hard contact, which leads to power. It’s not sell-out, dead pull power. He can hit.

Jack: What should the Giants do if they’re in the cellar again come July 31?
Keith Law: Trade ’em all. And yes, I mean all, as painful as that would be.

Ben: So is everyone gonna just ignore the fact that Billy Graham was an antisemitic, anti-lgbt mysoginist?
Keith Law: Who abandoned his kids for long stretches and tried to convince his daughter not to divorce her philandering husband.

PJ: Between Max Fried and Luiz Gohara, who should I be more excited to see in our lovely taxpayer-funded park this year?
Keith Law: Eh, both are pretty fun in different ways.

WhiteSoxAndy: I heard about a rule being discussed on the Rich Eisen show in which teams can put any three players up to bat to start the 9th inning. This sounds like a really dumb idea. Is it?
Keith Law: It is indeed a really dumb idea. I don’t know where it originated.

Ron: Does the addition of Gomez change your evaluation of the Souza trade from the Rays’ perspective at all? The players are obviously not equivalent values by themselves, but does a year of Gomez at $4 mil+prospects turn this into something approaching a win for the Rays?
Keith Law: It’s good value for the Rays, yes. Doesn’t alter the question of whether they got sufficient return for Souza.

Amory Blaine: How good can Luis Castillo be?
Keith Law: Without a good breaking ball, 2017 is his ceiling.

John: Where would juan Pablo Martinez rank in your top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: Answered last week – he would not.

Seath: Im a veteran and I am currently looking at masters programs that is both practical but could open the door in case i want to pursue a behind the scenes career in MLB. I have an MPA now and i’m looking into an MS in Business Analytics (I had to take a Quantitative Analysis class in my MPA program and loved it). Would you recommend something in that area or something completely different?
Keith Law: Thank you for your service. I think you’re on the right track. Ability to work with big data and coding skills will play in multiple industries.

Chris: In your opinion, who is more likely to leave and sign with another team next winter: Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Both.

Larry: If Alex Jackson isn’t workable behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an everyday corner OF?
Keith Law: Maybe. Odds under 50% but well above 0.

Logic: Keith, Regarding Vincent. It was many years ago now, in the 90’s when I went to Baltimore’s art museum to see an exhibit featuring Starry Night. I had no interest in art and knew nothing about it. I went because my girlfriend (love of my life) wanted to go, besides we could go to Fell’s Point later for some fun. When I saw the painting I was totally captivated. I couldn’t take my eyes off of it. It’s almost 3 dimensional. A wonderful experience that stills lives in me. If you get the opportunity, check it out.
Keith Law: I will, next time I’m down that way. I don’t think I would have been able to tell you anything about Van Gogh’s style before seeing Loving Vincent, but after the film I realized he does things I can appreciate even as an art philistine.

George: I just thought of this the other day, as I recently had a baby girl and was thinking about vaccinations; if they cause Autism–which they don’t–wouldn’t the numbers of boys to girls with Autism be fairly equal, not extremely one-sided in boys who are affected?
Keith Law: Right. Also, unvaccinated kids get autism at the same rate as vaccinated kids.

Matt: These kids from Parkland are kicking ass and taking names
Keith Law: Indeed. I hope they can keep it going until November.

Daniel: How close is Luke Weaver to a real third pitch, and how good can he be if it’s just a show-me curve that he can throw for strikes?
Keith Law: Not close enough for me to call him a sure starter.

Roger: Concern that Ethan Hankins is already dealing with shoulder issues?
Keith Law: Supposedly just muscular. Of course it’s a concern but let’s see him get back on the mound before we get too alarmed.

Dutch: What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario? The KATOH projection system loves him but I can’t find a single long form article about him. Is this simply an example of KATOH’s weakness for scouting the statline?
Keith Law: DSL player. I don’t know enough about Katoh’s algorithm to comment, but I would question *any* system that tried to project major-league value based on DSL stats.

Brandon: Kolby Allard’s prospect ranking has been all over the place depending on the list you look at. Why are so many people torn on him? Is it his size?
Keith Law: Size and reduced velocity over the course of 2017. When I asked around this winter about him, my top 100, what other teams thought of Atlanta’s system, I got fairly consistent responses that he’d slipped and also been passed by several other arms in their system (like Wilson).

Bort: With Honeywell almost certainly out for 2018, doesn’t it make even more sense for the Rays to trade Chris Archer?
Keith Law: “Almost certainly?” Look, I get that he could have just blown out his elbow, but that statement is not accurate right now.

John: I’m curious about the Megan McArdle thing that you circulated earlier this week. Tried following the links, and couldn’t find anything she had necessarily done wrong. Do you have any insight? The accusation is that she made up a number, but the “proof” was her saying that it was in the middle of a hypothetical. If true, then that’s not wrong.
Keith Law: That was her ex post rationalization for it. She’s also written repeatedly about topics like health care reform without disclosing her numerous conflicts of interest. It was a terrible hire in the WaPo/NYT editorial pages’ race to the bottom.

Seth : what do you think drury’s potential is? everyone keeps saying he’s filled with “untapped potential” … what say you?
Keith Law: Low-OBP but high average with some pop, plays 2nd (poorly) and 3rd (more than adequately), everyday guy for some teams, eventually a good bench player for the Yanks.

M.D. Pepper : Hi Keith, reports from SB Nation noted that Jahmai Jones may be getting some time at second base, which Jahmai somewhat denied. Would it be of value for the Angels if he made that transition and could he be capable of doing so since he played the position in high school?
Keith Law: Not sure when he did that in HS … sure, it’ll raise his value, because I think in that system his odds of staying in CF are low given the presence of other CF like Marsh.

Adam: Even if the bat never comes around, is there still a chance for Javier Guerra to make the majors as a defensive replacement? Or is the bat currently that bad?
Keith Law: Bat hasn’t looked the same since the trade and medical issue. Not sure if it’s medication or something else, but he’s looked much slower at the plate.

CapePorpoise: I’m trying to understand your NYT subscription cancellation. Given the number of links you’ve given, I’m assuming you agree it’s still one of the best news organizations. Are one columnist’s views sufficient cause to require your action?
Keith Law: Not “one columnist,” and I think I made that fairly clear. This is Stephens and Douthat and Norton (since axed, but really, nice process, guys) and to a lesser extent brooks. It’s articles normalizing neo-Nazis and giving excessive voice to Trump voters. And they’ve run their share of pseudoscience claptrap too, like Danny Hakim’s well-reviled piece attacking GMOs contrary to all available science.

Mikey B: Rays just traded Dickerson to the Pirates. FYI.
Keith Law: Well there you have it.

Dr. Bob: Man, did you get hammered by Padres’ fans for stating the obvious about SD signing Hosmer. They should be able to see the same things that we all see. What do you think their motive was?
Keith Law: Plenty of rational Padres fans came out to support me, but the trolls are the loudest, unfortunately. It’s amusing to me how thoroughly a fan base can convince itself of a player’s intangibles even when they have had no direct contact with the player in his career.

Raj: Why do you think Matt Chapman was never mentioned as a top their prospect during his time in the minors? I understand the questions how his hit tool, but wouldn’t his above average glove and power neutralize the concerns about his hit tool?
Keith Law: No, not given the swing and miss rates.

Pat D: I’ve never come closer to telling people I like and respect to fuck off because of one issue than I have in the last week. I’m just so sick of the “evil people are going to do evil things” excuse while the person who says that engages in nothing but fallacies and false equivalences. Time to just cut off contact, right? Also, isn’t it sad to know you’ll never be a great patriot like Wayne LaPierre?
Keith Law: If we can identify evil people so easily, how about we just screen every would-be gun buyer for evil. If you’re evil, you don’t get a gun. Problem solved!

Anthony : Are you finally ready to say that Soroka has a higher ceiling or floor than Allard? You’ve said no to both back in September but now your rankings show different.
Keith Law: How dare I change my opinions on players. In the future, I’ll be sure to keep all rankings perfectly static.

Will in Vero: How did Dallas Baptist get so good?
Keith Law: Recruited very well locally, especially since they announced they were moving up to D1 maybe a decade ago (or longer? jeez).

Patrick: With Solak dealt it came out that the Yankees were pushing him with Frazier in their offer to Pitt for Cole. Do you think those 2 were a better offer than the 4 Pitt ultimately took from Houston?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not a big Solak fan.

Brian: As a Phillies fan, the plight of Mark Appel and Mickey Moniak has me wondering: when top 5 guys end up being busts is there a commonality in terms of what scouts and people like yourself got wrong pre-draft? Is it about certain tools or focusing too much on one element of the evaluation, etc?
Keith Law: Don’t think you could find two players as different as those two. Moniak seemed at the time and seems still today like a bit of a money-saver option in a draft without a clear 1. Appel was the clear 1 that year, or at worst a great 2, and given what the Astros had available at the time he was a good pick.

Exit Velocity Proves I’m Good : Is there 25+ HR power in Josh Bell?
Keith Law: I believe there is, even without the juiced ball.

Josh in DC: I haven’t read your book, but I will eventually. Do you have any positive thoughts about so-called intangibles (say, leadership ability) in the book?
Keith Law: No, my book focuses on things that actually exist and that we can at least try to measure.

David: Honest question – would you turn down the opportunity to visit President Trump? I’ve thought about this a lot. Does meeting him CHANGE anything (for better or worse)? So would it be all that bad to meet him, just for the experience? Curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: I probably would turn it down. I can’t see any good coming of it.

Chris: I know youre on hiatus from TC, but just a heads up the Volt Bros are on tonight…
Keith Law: Olympics tonight. I don’t control the remote even if I wanted to.

Matt: Keith, it seems like every year there’s a college pitcher I’ve never heard of who starts getting a ton of buzz as a top 5 pick. This year’s model appears to be Shane McLanahan. Aside from being small, what else could keep McLanahan from success in the pros?
Keith Law: I think that’s the biggest knock on him. He’s listed at 165, I think. That’s skinny.

John: I’m not a second amendment guy — in fact, I’ve never touched a gun in my life — but I disagree with you on guns vs. “mental illness.” The Virginia Tech rampage was done entirely with handguns. If there’s someone who has the psychological problems that would lead to one of these shootings, banning assault rifles won’t make a big difference. It would do more good to address the people with psyochotic/antisocial issues. Your point about using too broad a brush on “metal illness” is valid, but it doesn’t follow to ban a type of weapon.
Keith Law: One rampage was done entirely with handguns (can’t a handgun be semi-automatic, BTW? Isn’t that what a Luger of detective novel fame is?) … what about all of the massacres done with AR-15s? No one is claiming we will ever prevent all mass murders. If we can reduce their frequency at minimal cost, then we should do so. As much as I would love to see us improve mental health treatment in this country, that is very, very expensive. Banning weapons designed to kill as many targets as possible in a short period of time is cheap.

Bobbo: thanks for the chats. here’s a two parter: do you tend to veer away from hidden role and deduction games? and if not, are you partial to Deception (a fave of the game group im in)?
Keith Law: I played Deception with some new friends at Gen Con this year and it was fun, but definitely better thanks to the drinks in everyone’s hands. I don’t mind those games at all but they’re more social/party games than strategy games, which is my preference.

Josh in DC: So help me, my kids (8 and 10) like “Life.” Do you have any recommendations of games that are like Life, but not terrible?
Keith Law: Depends on what they like about it. I don’t know any games that try to simulate what (white, suburban, straight, cis) life is like. Do they like that they’re building stuff – like Agricola, where you’re a farmer and have to feed your family and build our your house and raise animals? (It’s also kind of easy in that game to forget to grow enough food to feed your family.)

Jonathan: Would MacKenzie Gore and Logan Allen be enough to pry Kevin Kiermaier away from the Rays?
Keith Law: Yeah, if the Padres are out of their fucking minds.

John: Even if he’s great the next two years, do you think it’s likely that Darvish actually uses his opt out? There is a lot of competition scheduled to be on the free agent market that year (Sale, Bumgarner, & Cole at the top; plus mid-rotation depth like Gray, Porcello, and Pineda, among others).
Keith Law: He could always threaten to use it and try to renegotiate his deal, too.

Dr. Bob: Colby Rasmus just signed with the Orioles. I don’t know if his career would have turned out the same, but I always wonder if TLR’s manhandling him contributed to his downfall. Might be a cautionary tale that you shouldn’t necessarily treat every player the same.
Keith Law: I think the combination of TLR and Rasmus’s father led to his failure to develop.

Todd: Yankees Luis Medina a potential breakout prospect?
Keith Law: He was my potential breakout prospect for the Yankees.

Mike: This isn’t relevant to a sport that you follow, but some Oregon State fans were accused of yelling racial epithets at players from a rival school after a game. What level of punishment to the school do you think can decrease this deplorable behavior? No future home games, tournament bans, something else?
Keith Law: If the school takes action – banning those fans from games, even suspending them – I’d be fine stopping there. You go after the school if it has shown an unwillingness or inability to stop the problem.
Keith Law: Also, what’s worse, Oregon State fans yelling racial epithets, or Oregon State fans giving convicted child molester Luke Heimlich a standing ovation?

RSO: Thoughts on the economy booming right now under Trump? You ever just give him credit or just rip him for every little thing he does like most liberals do?
Keith Law: You dropped your binky. The economy isn’t “booming,” by the way. The stock market is, but that’s not the economy. Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations.

Dennis: Does Nick Tropeano have mid rotation potential or is he a likely back-end guy?
Keith Law: Two pitch guy, most likely a reliever/long man.

Chris: If and when Andujar and Gleyber entrench themselves, should the Yanks trade Wade, Thairo, and Drury if they’d be average regulars for so called second division teams? Understanding depth is important, at some pt it is not a good allocation of resources.
Keith Law: Trade one or two of the three, but not all. Someone has to back those guys (and Didi) up.

Buck: What do you think of Nick Senzel getting a look at shortstop this spring? Any chance he can stick there, at least for a few years?
Keith Law: No. Don’t get it at all – he was a poor defender at SS as an amateur, and worked hard to get to average at 3b.

JR : Who are a person or two on the social/political right that you read and respect their rationality and integrity even if you disagree them?
Keith Law: David French comes to mind. I’m sure he’s written something that would make me tear my hair out, but he’s been one of the most consistently thoughtful, rational writers on the right I’ve seen over the last year.

Pj: Yandy Diaz is an enormous human being with a good swing. Will the power come at some point?
Keith Law: I think there can be average power.

wade: I believe you mentioned previously that you remodeled your kitchen and decided not to do a double oven. What do you do when you need to cook two things at different temps but want them to be done at the same time?
Keith Law: Almost never comes up.

Dave: Curious what your problem with Douthat is – he’s devout and I’m not, but I assume that’s not the issue. At least he’s smarter than their other conservatives.
Keith Law: Literally wrote a piece arguing for rolling back part of the First Amendment.

RSO: I really enjoyed hearing you on the RAB podcast. Do you plan on working with RAB on any future endeavors?
Keith Law: I’ve always enjoyed their work and have said yes whenever I could when they’ve asked me to do their podcast.

jake: so im confused, where was florial actually born?
Keith Law: An excellent question. For folks who missed it, Florial told Randy Miller he was born in the DR. MLB thinks he was born in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and he wore the Haitian flag in the Futures Game last year. Seems like a visa problem waiting to happen, so I’m hoping this is all just a misunderstanding.

Josh in DC: In slamming intangibles as something that doesn’t exist, you also said leadership abilities don’t exist. Look, I’m dubious about most intangibles. But just because something can’t be measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: If it can’t be measured, then you can’t rationally price it, and that is functionally equivalent to nonexistent.

Jay: Can we look forward to your thoughts after Ohtani’s mound debut Saturday?
Keith Law: Nope. Not until I see him live. I’ll be on the road Saturday anyway.

Ron: Keith-I have 3 pigs and a bird dog that can fly before Tebow will ever make a MLB player. He’s just taking up vital space for a real minor-leaguer.
Keith Law: I have declined to write further about Tebow for ESPN. It is a traveling circus at this point.

Todd Boss: In response to the person commenting on the Va Tech massacre, Mother Jones’ US Mass Shootings database reports that Seung-Hui Cho used “Two semiautomatic handguns” … fyi.
Keith Law: I thought so. I don’t know guns at all, though. Never even held an unloaded weapon.

David: Khalil Lee and K’s; Is he missing pitches in the zone or chasing bad pitches? From a scouting perspective, is one considered better or easier to fix?
Keith Law: You can’t really strike out that often without a little of both.

Tim: With ballparks in the PCL being such launching pads, would you encourage organizations to adopt the humidors at those stadiums? If so, why haven’t they? Is it the cost?
Keith Law: Might be an approval process here that stymies them. Of course, moving the teams works too.

Matt: Evan McMullin is a decent person too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. He’s a throwback in many ways to a conservative movement/philosophy that has been overtaken by bigotry and denialism.

Trav: Also, re: the economy, I wonder how many giving Donald credit for the current economy were heaping praise on Obama for averting a completely failed economy when he came into office.
Keith Law: None, I’m sure.

B: Could you see Lucas Erceg getting a call up in September? He reminds me of a young Longoria, only left handed. Is that way off base?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive on both fronts. I do like Erceg, but his approach is nowhere near as mature as Longo’s was at that age.

Adam: Charles C.W. Cooke is a solid conservative writer, although you would differ greatly with him on 2A
Keith Law: I’m fine disagreeing with writers on substantive issues. I’m not fine with, say, calling for rolling back 1A when your career depends on 1A for its mere existence. Or with a piece defending a child molester because he hasn’t had enough victims accuse him.

steve: Swihart: Makes Sox roster or sent packing?
Keith Law: Makes it. Highly doubt they give up on him without one more good shot to get him healthy and productive.

Scott : I’m flying from Helsinki to Aruba on Saturday with three kids under the age of 10, can you recommend a place to get a stiff drink?
Keith Law: In Aruba, fortunately, the alcohol flows quite freely everywhere you go. Godspeed.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. I’ll be at U Miami Friday and Saturday nights to see Florida’s two big starters, so if any of you head to the stadium (or have food suggestions!) let me know. Fuck yeah, baseball!

Comments

  1. The Rich Eisen idea was originated three years ago, on ESPN radio, by Jon “Stugotz” Wiener on The Dan Le Batard show with Stugotz. He called it “The Magic At-Bat” and also proposed a home run derby rather than extra innings to decide a game that is tied after 9 innings.

    Stugotz Army solider

  2. “no civilian has any valid reason to own a semiautomatic weapon”

    Hunting, home protection, a check on tyranny

    Also, the “Trump made it easier for mentally ill people to get guns” narrative is wildly misleading. The Obama regulation applied to those who have representatives to handle their finances. Do they automatically deserve to have their rights curtailed?

    • If you need a semiautomatic weapon to hunt, you probably shouldn’t be hunting.

    • Everyone and his brother has a semi-automatic weapon, and it hasn’t checked any creeping tyranny in the last twelve months.

    • “a check on tyranny”

      LOL, you’re adorable if you think small arms are going to do anything if the United States does become tyrannical and turn the full force of it’s military on the civilian populace.

    • Also Kevin S. but a different one

      I don’t know if “a check on tyranny” was a joke, but that is complete nonsense (not that the others aren’t). Like what, you’re going to go shoot up the local government if they start doing something wrong?

    • I don’t think that, but I do know why the 2nd Amendment exists, and it’s for that reason.

    • Back when the 2A was written, both the government and it’s citizens had muskets so at least it would have been an even fight. Now, if it wanted, the government can send a drone with much more advanced weaponry and destroy you and your neighborhood from hundreds of miles away, thus making whatever arsenal of guns you have useless. So if you think your guns are going to stop government tyranny, well it won’t.

    • Tony,

      Semiautomatic shotguns are widely used in bird hunting, particularly duck hunting. I’ve used one myself for years. No one want to miss the first shot, but it will happen occasionally no matter how much you practice. That’s why you need the ability for a fast follow up shot.

    • It’s hard to imagine, but I think there are situations where an armed citizenry could make a difference in the U.S. Not likely or realistic, but possible. And again, it’s an enumerated right in our founding document.

      It’s absolutely a check on tyranny (or could be) in other countries. That’s easy to see.

      One can dispute the pros and cons of gun policies, but to say there’s no valid reason for a civilian to have a semiautomatic gun is unequivocally wrong.

    • The Second Amendment exists to provide for a well regulated militia. It’s always blown my mind how conservative jurisprudence insists that *every word* of the Constitution matters, except for those four words. DC v. Heller is one of the most egregious decisions the Court has ever handed down. (In my opinion, of course.)

  3. Humidors are already being used in these PCL ballparks: Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Reno, Salt Lake. Not sure about El Paso and Vegas.

  4. Some gun info re: terminology referenced above:
    Handguns are typically referred to as automatic when they can re-fire without the shooter having to pull back a hammer to re-cock it. They function the same as a semi-automatic rifle, though, in that each pull of the trigger fires one shot. It’s a semantics issue that has to do with the historical roots of each weapon. Fully automatic rifles are banned because a pull of the trigger fires several shots at once. Modifications like bump stocks can increase the speed of firing on a semiautomatic weapon to virtually fully automatic, though.

    An automatic handgun can fire 15 shots in under 30 seconds (if it’s a light enough caliber with an experienced/skilled shooter); if the shooter has extra magazines loaded, a gap of maybe 10 seconds between bursts of 15. Assault rifles can shoot faster than that and more accurately. If there’s an “advantage” to potential victims of a handgun rampage, it’s that the handguns don’t have the large magazines (bullet storage, basically), accuracy, or speed that a rifle can have. It would be like in Dominion, the handgun shooter would have discarded down to three cards already. But can still do a lot of damage.

    I grew up around guns and live in a state where they’re ubiquitous. While I do need the ability to protect my kids and animals from literal coyotes (and bears), there’s literally no need for anything with that kind of rapid firing or large capacity. Nearly everyone is more likely to hurt themselves or their own family trying to “defend the home” with a semi-automatic weapon than they are to fend off a home invader. Especially given the low odds of such an invasion ever occurring.

    Hope that’s helpful.

    • With all due respect, little of what you said is accurate here. Pistols that are not automatic are never referred to as such by people who are knowledgeable about guns. They are referred to as semi-automatics if they fire one round each pull of the trigger and a new round is then loaded into the chamber through the energy transfer from the fired round. Cocking the weapon has nothing to do with it, as many guns are double action only, meaning they are not cocked prior to pulling the trigger.

      “Bump” stocks increase two things: the rate of fire and the likelihood of jamming. Firing at an exceptionally high rate heats the barrel of a gun immensely, which can warp the barrel. Even the tiniest warp results in catastrophic failure. Now, this issue can be avoided if, like the Vegas shooter, you use several guns, but if he had used a single gun he likely would have jammed or even destroyed that gun before doing nearly as much harm as he did. Either way, a bump fire stock will never increase the rate of fire to anything close to a true automatic, because it still requires human manipulation, rather than a truly mechanical process. Ban them or don’t, I don’t actually care, but the narrative about them is a good bit off.

      Lastly, an “assault rifle” is a specific thing, and you are not talking about that item. You are discussing semi-automatic rifles, which are colloquially referred to by some as assault weapons, a political term from the 1980s that has become a popular title for weapons that have a certain look, not function, to them. Assault rifle is a DoD term for a sub-full rifle calibre (i.e. less than a .30-06) select fire weapon. Select fire means that it is capable of firing in at least two modes, typically semi-auto and full auto, oftentimes 3 round burst. M16s and M4s are assault rifles. AR15s are, by definition, not.

      I don’t say any of this to sway anyone’s opinion on guns; I don’t anticipate that happening, and that’s fine. I just want people to actually understand what they’re talking about and use the correct and accurate terms. I could argue with you on your last couple of points, but I honestly don’t see much point these days; people are so set in their beliefs that not much will change their minds on such an emotional issue. I just ask that people who are anti-gun, or even just anti-certain types of guns, learn enough about them to speak with accuracy about them. I would love to take anyone who has never held a gun but argues for banning them to a range to show them exactly what they’re arguing against. It may not change their opinion, but they’ll come to the table with a little more perspective

    • You touched on one of my pet peeves in this debate: The “AR” in AR-15 does not stand for “assault rifle.” That’s two seconds on Google to confirm, and people just run with it anyway.

    • Yes, I didn’t mention that because Jeff didn’t espouse that particular misconception. It stands, for those who don’t want to google it, for ArmaLite Rifle, ArmaLite being the company that first produced it

    • Aaaaand here comes the Meadowparty police, aka Jeremy, here to “correct” yet another poster and to make clear how right–and how righteous–he is.

    • CB calling anyone else a board cop is the height of hilarity. Jeremy’s knowledge is a useful contribution — especially because the term “assault rifle” is routinely being swatted away in these debates as an imprecise term of politically charged origin. I am new to this knowledge, but I believe it to be important.

    • “CB calling anyone else a board cop is the height of hilarity.”

      I’d like you to provide one example that supports that assertion. I’ve certainly disagreed with people; never have I said anything like, “Everything sansho1 says is worthless and unproductive.” And yet, that is exactly the sort of attack Jeremy made upon me.

  5. This exactly:

    David French comes to mind. I’m sure he’s written something that would make me tear my hair out, but he’s been one of the most consistently thoughtful, rational writers on the right I’ve seen over the last year.

  6. Hmmm…so what if I just don’t buy the official narrative? I don’t believe the kids are crisis actors (although can one really deny that they’re being manipulated?) and I don’t think any of this is Soros related, ha. Should I still be fired from my job, or simply sent to a reeducation camp?
    Roughly half of Americans don’t buy the official 9/11 story, and yes I’ve read the famous Popular Mechanics “debunking” article, among many others, and I’m college educated. Should half of Americans be sent into homelessness for this?

    • I don’t tolerate hoaxers here, Scott. If this is some sort of gag, it’s not funny.

    • I was genuinely asking your thoughts…I think you’re a little extreme in these scenarios. Basically, not all of us are Alex Jones followers, want to harass the kids, or automatically lean toward conspiracy and look for anything to validate those beliefs.
      The end I guess?

    • I’m really not clear on the question, then; your first statement seemed to embrace hoaxer beliefs, and then threw in some straw men about making half of Americans homeless. (Only about 4% believe 9/11 was an ‘inside’ job of the US government.)

      You couldn’t work for me if you claimed publicly that the Parkland kids were crisis actors, or harassed Sandy Hook parents by claiming their kids weren’t real. I think people who do that should get kicked off social media, and their employers are well withing their rights to fire them.

    • I don’t think that’s a strawman. We’ll never find common ground on this but thanks for somewhat clearing up where you stand re people losing their jobs.

      I googled rather quickly so maybe the numbers I saw were wrong regarding 9/11, but this article and a very similar livescience one with the same data were the first two results. For the record, I definitely don’t believe the US government is solely responsible, so if that’s the criteria I can see the percentage being much closer to your number. Wikipedia has that at 15% for what it’s worth.

      https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5804ec04e4b0e8c198a92df3/amp

    • “solely responsible?” You think the US government is partly responsible for 9/11? Sandy Hook? Parkland?

    • Dude, either you’re a conspiracy theorist or you’re not. What, exactly, is the “official” narrative? It’s not like the U.S. government has published a directive explaining what the story is, and you can choose to believe it or not. Either you accept that the events happened, or you don’t, and that the folks involved are real, or they aren’t.

    • I don’t think the government as a whole or even specific departments were involved in any way. I don’t even think Bush was the “mastermind”. However, as kooky as the GOP is, would it really be that far fetched that certain powerful individuals in government (and in the private sector) had either prior knowledge of the attacks, or were complicit in some way? Need I remind you of how widely everyone was fed false information in order to get us into war? Do you honestly think everyone peddling this information truly believed Iraq absolutely had WMD’s and was responsible for the anthrax attacks? It was total heresy at the time to question the evidence.

      I personally don’t like the term “conspiracy theorist” since it was created by the CIA in order to discredit/smear those who questioned the findings of the Warren commission after the JFK assasination. I definitely don’t believe everything is a false flag either- tragedies happen and crazy people do horrible things, unfortunately. I think it’s disingenuous to paint everyone with a broad brush in that sense. Just because you disagree on an official narrative or two doesn’t mean you automatically don’t believe any of them.
      Maybe I have my tinfoil hat on too often, but I personally believe that anyone who pushes the “crisis actor” angle or anything equally ridiculous is out there (whether they know it or not) to purposely make anyone who questions an official narrative look insane.

  7. Charterstone looks neat, but it shouldn’t get credit for introducing competitive play to legacy games. The very first legacy game, Risk: Legacy, was competitive. I only point it out because I think it doesn’t always get the respect it deserves from board game nerds (and I consider myself one) because the original was in that Monopoly category of ‘classic’ games that actually sucked. My group was blown away by that game when it came out.

    On a more positive note, I tried EXIT: The Abandoned Cabin based on your review. Loved it so much I immediately bought three more EXIT games. Looking forward to the next time I get a group to play.

    • Charterstone didn’t introduce legacy play in competitive games, but it made it good (in my opinion).

  8. Jeer Heet had a tweet thread tonight arguing that the conservative movement has always been the home of bigots and scumbags:

  9. Brian in Ahwatukee

    You missed Tom Friedman.

  10. “If it can’t be measured, then you can’t rationally price it, and that is functionally equivalent to nonexistent.” Regarding leadership, your comments don’t hold water. Companies give a lot of compensation and promotions to people with leadership ability. This would imply it can be measured. Some people make good leaders, and some do not.

    • We’re talking about leadership in baseball.

      And FWIW, the fact that people believe something exists and pay for it is not proof that it exists. A few billion people believe in one or more deities, often dedicating their lives to this, but that’s not proof.

  11. I don’t think there is an industry out there in which leadership isn’t important. The fact that you don’t believe in it is not evidence against its existence.

    • 1. You are conflating two different kinds of leadership. A baseball team does have the kind of leadership you’re talking about–the field manager, and the general manager.

      2. And, as regards, “I don’t think there is an industry out there in which leadership isn’t important,” I am in academia, and I don’t regard leadership as being at all important. I sometimes don’t see my “boss” (the department chair) for months, because we teach on different days. And he has zero impact on what I teach or how I teach. He’s never even seen me teach, and he’s certainly never read any of my scholarly work.

    • It seems like you’re talking about leadership in terms of strategic vision and good communication, at least from a business perspective. As CB said, those are skills you would want in your manager, general manager, and director of baseball ops. In the clubhouse, leadership is generally considered to be something more like being punctual and working hard. There’s nothing to say guys who’ve played the game a long time do either of those, nor does it mean young players can’t demonstrate them. It’s really more ideas people want to ascribe to players they may like, more narrative than actual.

  12. Keith, I’m planning on playing Charterstone 2P and debating whether to use any Automa. Did you use any? What player count did you play at? Thanks.

    • We are playing with 3, no automa. I think they might have made the games more interesting but slightly longer.

  13. Re: Jeremy:
    1. I’m not anti-gun by any means. Range shooting is fun. I own guns and occasionally have an actual need to use one (see coyote comment, I wasn’t joking). Gun violence is almost non-existent in my ubiquitously gun-carrying region and I think there’s a place for guns as tools and for shooting recreationally.

    2. Automatic and semi-automatic are used interchangeably for pistols that are semi-automatic in function, at least in my area. Perhaps that’s colloquial, but see what pops up when you google search automatic pistol. Lots of links for semi-automatic pistols. I do think gun owners are a lot more specific than 25 years ago, largely because of increased attention about the difference from people who don’t shoot.

    3. You’re right, I should have clarified with “high-volume semiautomatic rifle, designed for military purposes primarily to kill people efficiently” instead of going with a non-DoD definition, culturally widespread understanding of assault or assault-style weapon. That was lazy of me.

    Meanwhile, people are in warm places playing exhibition baseball and I for one am already irrationally excited about all of it. I’m ready to make completely unsupportable conclusions from the box scores, and dream of summer when I can listen to my Sox while mowing the lawn and hoping for healthy, hugely entertaining seasons from everyone in baseball. Even the Yankees, who everyone knows Keith favors.

    • Jeff, I certainly didn’t mean to imply you are anti-gun; my apologies if that is how it came across. I would still argue that your new definition of semi-auto rifles is inaccurate. The AR15 style rifle was not designed for military use. In fact it was specifically designed to be used by the civilian population. You may disagree with that intent, but the intent of its designers is indisputable

  14. A Salty Scientist

    Late to the party, but I do want to comment on the gender question re: autism. To be clear, there is zero evidence that vaccines are related to autism. There’s a large body of data showing no differences in autism incidence when comparing vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals, as Keith mentions. But, the (currently unknown) environmental contributors to autism could easily have a larger effect in one gender vs another. This is certainly well established for many different diseases, ranging from cancer to heart disease, and has frankly been relatively under-appreciated. In fact NIH now requires funded research to consider sex as a biological variable (link).