Klawchat, 12/9/16.

Klaw: There’s emptiness behind their eyes, there’s dust in all their hearts. Klawchat.

Nate: Keith, do the white Sox have a top 5 system now?
Klaw: No, although they might by the end of the winter. They’ve added a lot of high-end talent, but to be a top-five system you have to have continued strength beyond the top 8-10 guys and I don’t think they do yet.

Michael: I get Eaton is a good player, but if I told you they traded Gioloto for Eaton straight up wouldn’t you say that’s fair? Seems to me that those three prospects should have brought back someone with a longer track record of success.
Klaw: I get the sense that the Nationals, for reasons on which I can only speculate, soured on Giolito after his brief MLB time last year (which wasn’t good). But he was handled poorly all year, from the delivery change in the minors to the constant yo-yo up and down from the minors to the overuse of the fastball when he was in the majors. He’s still 22, healthy, athletic, and has the same stuff he had a year ago when everyone was in love with him. That is the most confusing part of all to me.

Jason (Milwaukee): What do you think of the Brewers’ signing of Eric Thames? Will be be any good in MLB after putting up Bonds-esque number in Korea?
Klaw: Offensive levels in Korea are substantially higher than they are here, and the level of competition is substantially worse. So no, I don’t think he will.

Dutiful Husband: The wife wants a cast iron skillet for Xmas – any recommendations
Klaw: The only major brand is Lodge, and theirs are the best. I find the 12-inch skillet to be incredibly useful, but it is heavy to lift with one hand.

Adam D.: I agree with your take(s) on the downside of signing relief pitchers for more than a couple years. That said, as a Giants fan I can’t remember the need for one player being so acute. Would you agree that in the case of a team like that Giants that is a true threat to win it all, absorbing the back end of a bad deal like that is justifiable? Especially because they didn’t surrender a draft pick to do it.
Klaw: The risk starts essentially on day one for relievers – your ability to project performance and health starts to drop right away, just because of their attrition rates. I think we’ve been a little spoiled of late by some elite relievers having a couple of good back-to-back seasons, but look at Kimbrel, who is still effective but has already started to see his numbers come back to merely good from otherworldly. And he hasn’t blown out or missed half a season or anything – he’s just aged. I agree the need was acute for the Giants, but I still don’t like the signing.

Jeff: If, as we expect, Jansen signs somewhere other than LA, does it make sense for the Dodgers to use more of a committee approach in the pen, or should they explore trades for a “proven closer”?
Klaw: I think they will try to create a closer – find someone underutilized in another pen, convert a guy, etc. I can’t imagine them overpaying in trade for a ninth inning guy.

Preston: Is there a prospect package not involving Eloy or Happ the Cubs could realistically offer to obtain a solid young starter?
Klaw: You’ve asked, in essence, if they can get such a starter without paying for one. So no.

Marshall MN: The Ian Desmond deal has to go down as the most confusing of the offseason right? Non of the components of the deal – the size of the contract, the length, the fit of Desmond on the team, giving up a draft pick – seems to make any sense. I guess it is still early, and a team might “out do” the Rockies and give a guy like Trumbo a 5 year deal and give up a draft pick as well. But I imagine the Rangers front office was celebrating.
Klaw: It’s the worst deal of the offseason for me. Giving up a pick for him, the 11th pick with all that pool money attached, is stupid. I don’t love calling moves stupid, but this time it fits.

Travis: I loved Brotha Jenkins on the Braves. Really really likeable guy. Did it really make that much sense to trade him and was it because the Braves just gave up on him?
Klaw: His stuff hasn’t missed bats in AAA or the majors. Hard to blame them for questioning his long-term value. I’d still rather have him than Jackson, because Jenkins has better stuff and is an 80 athlete, but I get the frustration.

Travis: Higher ceiling, Mike Soroka or Sean Newcomb?
Klaw: Soroka for me.

David: Hi Keith, I’m glad Top Chef is back, but disappointed in so many returning chefs. Like you, I would rather see someone new. With that said, who do you think is the best chef to appear as a contestant on the show? Richard Blais? Kristen Kish? Paul Qui? Voltaggios? Someone else I’m missing?
Klaw: Qui dominated his season like no one else did, but Blais nearly won the first time and then won All-Stars, so I’d probably give him the nod.

Carl C: Klaw, How can you be so sensible in every other aspect but have such a bad taste in music?
Klaw: Do I have only one bad taste in music, or several?

Nelson: Will you do a best books of 2016 post?
Klaw: No, I don’t read many books that are brand-new.

Nelson: What role will Blake Swihart have this year?
Klaw: I thought the Sox might return him to 3b, where he played some in HS, but it sounds like he’s going to catch regularly wherever he plays.

Adam: The general mindset is the Padres took the 3 most talented players in the Rule 5 draft but all are longshots to stick. I know you don’t care about that draft at all, but what are your thoughts on the individual players?
Klaw: My thoughts are (yawn).

Jim: What do you think of the rumors that the phillies might be open to moving herrera? Could he get a lot back?
Klaw: I think it’s a good time to sell. He’s been great considering how they got him (rule 5, so basically free), but I think he showed some flaws in his game in 2016 that may limit his potential to be better going forward, and I know work ethic has been a concern for the team. Explore his value now while he’s cheap for one more year and has four years of control left – and while the OF market is really pretty thin anyway.

JJ: The market for relievers — especially closers — seems ridiculously out of control. By definition, relievers are failed starters. For every Mariano Rivera or Bobby Thigpen, there are literally dozens of BJ Ryans and Jim Johnsons. Why don’t GMs see this? For the money they gave Chapman, the Yankees could’ve signed Edwin Encarnacion.
Klaw: I have asked the same question and I don’t know the answer. Perhaps October is skewing views on relievers – how they were used that month, but also how the teams that got Miller and Chapman ended up in the WS, and the team with Jansen nearly got there, and the team with the worst closer situation (SF) lost its series because they didn’t have a ninth inning solution. But if you’re here, you probably know what I’d do with that money.

addoeh: Odds that Mike Montgomery is a serviceable #5 starter?
Klaw: Ten percent. Maybe 15 percent. I don’t think he has the command for it. He never did before, and he certainly had plenty of chances to start for his previous employers.

Jon v: is the loss of the 27th pick more palatable for Cleveland if they can get Encarnacion on a two year deal rather than the presumed four year deal heading into the winter meetings?
Klaw: Yes, I’d give up a late first-round pick if it meant cutting two years off a long-term deal. That’s a reasonable trade off.

Paul: I enjoy reading your analysis, I can live with your outside baseball comments (I don’t agree with most of them but it is ok with me), but I really was puzzled by one passage in your Chapmann article on espn: ” I can’t imagine giving someone with such serious character concerns […] a five-year deal with life-changing money. To borrow an old line from P.J. O’Rourke, it’s like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.” You don’t like Chapman and I don’t either, but I dislike this thinking that since he did something horrible, he should not get to do his job and being paid accordingly. I think second chances, whether it is a pro player or a random dude, and you seem to disagree with it. Would you care to elaborate? thanks
Klaw: You completely misread the comment. If I were a GM, I would not give someone with such serious character concerns that money. He can get to do his job, just on someone else’s dime. Also, let’s not pretend that all “second chances” are equal. If you hit a woman, watching an After School Special isn’t going to suddenly make you someone who won’t hit a woman again.

Jeffrey: If the Nats truly believe they will not be resigning Bryce Harper at the end of the 2018 season, would now be the time to truly explore trading him. With 2 years left on his obviously under market arbitration contract, the Nats would get a haul back for him. I understand the Nats are in a win now mode, but I believe they could get pieces back to make them still a contender in 2017 and going forward. For example, would a Nats and Red Sox deal be plausible? Bogarts, Bradley, Benintendi, Groome for Harper? Maybe I’m way off on that proposal, but it’s something that can be a starting point. Am I way off base on this? Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: It would be if they weren’t contending, but if they want to win the World Series in 2017, which I think they have as good a chance as the Cubs to do, then they need Harper. I would bet on him posting at least a 6 WAR this year if he’s completely healthy again (which I think he will be – I haven’t seen anything to the contrary).

Paul: After reading all your free agent signing analysis, seems like you disagree with the amount of $ or/and the number of years 90% of the time. Time to re-evaluate your scale Keith, seems like the industry has much more money that you think!
Klaw: That would be true if most free agent contracts work out, but they don’t. Free agents are overpaid in large part because players not yet eligible for free agency are so underpaid.

Tracy: I am looking forward to reading your book next year. However, I have to admit when you first mentioned you were writing a book, I thought it was fiction! Any chance you’d ever brush up on your wordsmith chops to write the Great American Novel?
Klaw: This is something I’d truly like to do, and I hope soon – a novel, that is, not that I think I could write the Great American Novel – but I have to put Smart Baseball completely to bed before I can think about it.

Mark: Do you think Huntington would have accepted the Eaton offer for McCutchen?
Klaw: I would certainly hope so. But I doubt Rizzo would have offered it. The difference in years of control is enormous.

Marty: The winter meetings are a great example of market economics. Supply and demand rule everything that happens. For instance, 5-year closer deals seem insane, unless there aren’t many closers and you really need one. That’s how a guy like Encarnacion could be unsigned, when he is arguably one of the best players on the market….only, there are a lot of 1B/DH types and not a ton of teams willing to spend money on them. Heck, you even have the concept of value of things having different meanings to different people, illustrated by the trades both Sox teams and the Nationals made. If you want to teach high school kids how our markets work, the winter meetings are your place.
Klaw: They’re also a good example of the winner’s curse – if you’re the team that has the highest projections for a player, you’re probably going to end up with the player, and that’s not always a good thing.

Phil: Do you see either Machado or Harper signing an extension with their current teams?
Klaw: I would say there’s less than a 5% chance of either guy signing an extension in the next twelve months. I’m tempted to say zero, but it’s not technically impossible, just wildly unlikely.

JJ: Bobby Valentine as US ambassador to Japan — insanely stupid idea, or just an insane idea?
Klaw: Does he get to wear the fake mustache? This is important to my decision.

Meeeeeeeeeeeee: Do you think a Severino-type (trained as a starter, but probably won’t succeed in the role) would be best used as a multi-inning reliever, 40-45 appearances per year, 1-4 innings at a time, one day of rest for every inning pitched? You could easily get 120 high-leverage innings without overtaxing the arm.
Klaw: Yes. Even if it’s 100 innings, with lots of rest, it’ll still deliver a ton of value. Some team is going to try this soon, but I think the Yanks are a good example here – they still hold out hope for Severino as a starter, and they need the starter, so they’re going to give him another shot there.

Joe: Did you go to any restaurants at the casino while you while in National Harbor? I would think the Voltaggio Brother’s restaurant would be on interest to you.
Klaw: The casino opened today. I left NH yesterday. I ate at Rose’s Luxury, All Purpose, Smoked & Stacked, and Succotash while in town, as well as coffee and a breakfast sandwich (for lunch) from Pineapple & Pearls. In a related story, I’ve been full for five days now.

Tim: Would it be fair to say that the industry is converging on a fairly similar set of models and metrics for evaluating and valuing talent? If so, do you see trades overall becoming less lopsided (in terms of there being clear winners or losers even at the time of the deal) vs., say, five+ years ago?
Klaw: I don’t think we’re going to see many deals like the Dansby Swanson trade any time soon – that sort of heist is probably over because there aren’t any FOs that are as far behind the rest of the industry as Dave Stewart’s was. But you may still see unbalanced deals because one team is all in for the current season and willing to pay heavily in future value for a player to win now.

Meeeeeeeeeeeee: I know you’re a foodie (tho not a snob), but do you have a secret fast-food indulgence and supermarket goodie you are ashamed of, but give into a couple of times a year?
Klaw: Everyone knows how I feel about Oreos. I can’t buy them – I eat too many at once. Fast food … I love Shake Shack, and that’s fast food. Any other fast food I eat is a matter of necessity rather than desire. I’ll seek out a Panera or a Chipotle rather than eat at McDonald’s, assuming I’m in the sticks somewhere.

Chris S.: Hi Keith, no baseball questions today…just wanted to thank you for bringing spatchcocking to my attention. It was the best bird in decades of cooking turkeys, and I have been preaching the gospel ever since.
Klaw: Changes Thanksgiving completely, doesn’t it? A better end product in less time.

Stanyon Turtze: Now that you’re so well-known on the internet & ESPN TV, does your wife ever worry about groupies?
Klaw: I ain’t going THAT good.

Josh: Understanding that valuing the return package is important, from on on-field standpoint only, aren’t the Royals probably better off with Soler than Davis in 2017 anyway? Have to figure Davis is never giving 2014 and 2015 quality and quantity of innings again.
Klaw: Even if he is, are the Royals that likely to win 90+ where his extra value will matter to a playoff spot? I feel like the answer is probably no.

Forsyth: Given that the Red Sox have a great young core at the MLB level, is there more justification to sending over Moncada and Kopech to the ChiSox for Sale? Fundamentally speaking, where do you draw the line between giving your young core the best chance to win for the next 3 years vs retaining your kids for the future?
Klaw: The Red Sox have a great young core and still have Devers and Groome, so Moncada and Kopech came from strength – and both guys they traded are still fairly high risk. I could see a 30% chance that Moncada busts because he never cuts the strikeout rate enough. There’s probably about that chance, maybe 40%, that Kopech’s a reliever, even though my gut says he’s a high-end starter. So, I get it, and if Sale doesn’t break down it’s going to work out fine, but I also fully understand why some Red Sox fans are flipping out over all the prospects DD has dealt.

Forsyth: How do you compare Devers and Moncada? Essentially, Devers trading speed for more power? Who do you like more going forward?
Klaw: I’ve always had Devers higher – better hit tool, more power, actually a better 3b although you never seem to hear that.

Ari: Hey Keith – which of the rule 5 picks do you find most intriguing? Do you think Torrens could really stick all year with the Padres? Thanks and love your work.
Klaw: Torrens is a weird case – could you hide a backup catcher all year, and if so, doesn’t that totally screw his development? That felt like Preller saying “I loved that guy as an amateur, let’s take him!”

Todd: What caliber of prospect is Lazaro Armenteros? Top 100 potential down the line? GUY or guy?
Klaw: Nice prospect, don’t think he’s a top 100 type.

Marvin Millers Sad Ghost: Does Tony Clark last a long time as Union chief, & (if so) does he feel pressure to ‘bring down the hammer’ during the next CBA negotiations to make up for perceived failures in this one? Do you think the next negotiations could be more contentious as a result?
Klaw: I’m working on a piece on the CBA for this upcoming week – I think the media coverage to date has unfairly characterized this deal for the union.

Mike: Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren’t trading archer there isn’t another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.
Klaw: It’s the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I’m Hahn, I’m focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.

Lee D: Keith, knowing how badly most long-term reliever deals work out, would you do (or should LA do) 5 years/$80M on Kenley? Is it possible he is Mariano lite (or heavy)?
Klaw: I wouldn’t do 5 years on any reliever, ever.

Andy: On the ESPN article, someone argued for the Ian Desmond signing because of making the All Star team, his batting average, and his amount of RBIs. So my question is, will you have hundreds of copies of your book that you will send to people like that?
Klaw: I feel like someone like that will not read my book even if you clamped his eyelids open and forced him to look at the pages.

Tom: Hi Klaw- no question, just wanted to say thanks for all the writing you do on board games. My then fiancee (and now wife) got Lost Cities in 2012 off your recommendation and now own many games off your top 100 list and hope to add a few more this month. Thanks for the countless hours of fun!
Klaw: You’re welcome. I’m very fortunate to have had a hobby turn into a nice little freelance gig where I get to try lots of games. I just filed my Top 10 games of 2016 piece to Paste, too.

Alan: What do you think about Jordan Adell? Can he stick in center, and how good is the bat? Top 5 pick?
Klaw: Top 5 potential, depends on the bat, which is scouts’ main question on him – is there enough contact there once he faces pro pitching. I’ll see him in the spring.

Larry: When do you guys ramp up draft coverage?
Klaw: Late February. Usually right when the colleges start.

Chip: Keith, you occasionally use rough language in your chats. I’m wondering if that crosses over to your spoken vocabulary, and if so, how did you go about cleaning that up as your daughter developed her language skills? I’m trying to keep my two year from dropping an f-bomb like her dad does from time to time.
Klaw: Although we didn’t use foul language around her, we also didn’t hide it in music she might hear with us, and we just explained when she was old enough – maybe around 7? – that there are some words people shouldn’t use in public (such as, you know, to your teacher). But I felt like pretending those words didn’t exist would only turn her into one of those kids who learns his first curse word and then starts using it all the time, even where it doesn’t make sense.

Larry: I know the joke is always that this year’s draft isn’t as good as last year’s. Is that the case again this year?
Klaw: I think the 2017 class is better than 2016. Way more college pitching.

RB: Bellinger Deleon and verdugo for Quintana? Who says no
Klaw: I bet the Dodgers say no but that’s not unreasonable given Quintana’s contract.

Larry: Cards sign Fowler and have years of Piscotty and Grichuk. What happens to Bader? Is he trade bait?
Klaw: I think he could be trade bait this year, but if Grichuk can’t top a .277 OBP vs RHP this year, maybe Bader ends up their LF in time.

John: Hey Keith. I was wondering if you could have your employer add an RSS feed to your blog when you post new content. Not being on Social Media, I tend to randomly check your blog for new material. Thanks.
Klaw: There was one, but they seem to have killed it some time in the last year or so. I do try to post all my links here on Saturdays and through my email newsletter (which I haven’t sent out in two weeks, I apologize).

Nick: Who serves the best burger you’ve ever had?
Klaw: The Bar at Husk in Charleston, SC.

Jesse: Keith, Addison Russell improved from 2015 to 2016. He lowered his K% by 6% and raised his BB% by 1%. Do you think Russell can continue to improve those number, even slightly, going forward? If he’s even a .340 OBP guy as soon as next year, that’s a damn good young SS for the Cubs. It’s hard to believe he’ll only be 23 going into 2017.
Klaw: Yes. I think he’s going to be a legitimate superstar – OBP, some power, great defense.

Erich: Has Trump made a nomination yet that makes any sense? Seems like everyone picked is incredibly unqualified and/or morally bankrupt.
Klaw: It’s the greatest DC troll job in history. I think if you’re at all progressive in your views, this is the ideal Administration, because it is just so extreme that it might turn off more voters than it pleases.

Nick: You’ve suggested before that the Astros switch Bregman and Correa in the field, and I’ve seen that opinion echoed elsewhere. What is it that makes Bregman the better defender at short? Based on scouting reports it seems Correa has the advantage in arm strength and they’re similar in speed, so I’m assuming it has to do with first step / instincts. Thanks Keith
Klaw: Correa’s numbers at short on defense haven’t been good and he’s only getting bigger. Bregman is not getting bigger (sorry, Alex).

Sean: I’m trying to keep an open mind that MLB teams are run by smart individuals, but I cannot understand how the market is such that Chapman is more valuable than Fowler right now. Can you provide any insight on this?
Klaw: I don’t understand it either, especially because I don’t think there were actually that many suitors for Chapman. Hell, if the Marlins want him, let them sign him, then trade for him in a year when Loria wants to dump the contract.

Steve: Keith, do you think Allen Cordoba has a chance to stick in SD? He’s got tons of talent but he’s nowhere near ready for MLB pitching, right?
Klaw: Right. I don’t think he’s close to ready. I like Santander a little – Chris Crawford thought he was the most interesting guy taken – but I don’t think he’s close to ready. This is another reason I hate the rule 5 draft. The guys who are eligible nearly always aren’t ready.

John Liotta: What are your thoughts on Michael Chabon? His new novel, not surprisingly, is getting a lot of praise. I kind of feel like his stuff has been progressively meh since Kavalier and Clay (which was also badly in need of editing).
Klaw: I’ve only read K and C, and I didn’t love it. You nailed one of the main reasons. It was a very smart book, imaginative, but not compelling enough. And the scene in the middle of the book with the police raid really bothered me – it felt overdramatic, designed to shock rather than to move.

Mark: I think you mentioned you were reading ,”The Caine Mutiny” , but I never saw your review. Was also wondering if you had read any of Ken Follett’s work and if so , what your thought’s were ?
Klaw: I never reviewed The Caine Mutiny, which I enjoyed greatly, because I got horribly sick that week and ended up having to push the top 100 back.

Ethan: I know how to calculate Isolated Power, but what is it supposed to reveal? I’m not a big fan of stats just combine different stats; is there anything to it for you?
Klaw: Are you talking about OPS? Isolated power isn’t combining everything – it’s a quick look at a player’s rate of producing extra bases, most of which result from power. (Some come from speed, especially on triples, which are like fast doubles.)

Nelson: How was Rose’s Luxury? Doing a DC eats post?
Klaw: I’m hoping to do one, but I have a lot of writing in front of me, including this chat.

Pat D: Keith, I wasn’t a fan of the way the Yankees acquired Chapman last year. I like him as a player and loathe him as a person. I’d resigned myself to the Yankees re-signing him a while ago. I’m still not overly thrilled by any of this. All that being said, I’m not going to stop rooting for the team. So on a scale of 1-10, how deplorable a person does that make me?
Klaw: Depends on who you voted for.

James: perhaps I am wrong but as a Cardinals fan I do not care for the Fowler signing. Seemed like Management was just reacting. 5 years was too long …..and the further cost was giving up the 18th pick (and bonus pool money) in a draft with seemingly strong first round talent. Finally Cubs get a bonus 1st round pick. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: I liked the signing. My analysis just went up for Insiders.

Scott of Lincolnshire: I saw this tweet:
Klaw: There are a lot of problems with that tweet, starting with using career data when the two players are clearly not the same players they were in 2012.

Jeff: will Rey Lopez be a part of the rotation in 2017, or does he need more time in the minors
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever, not a starter, due to his delivery.

Marshall MN: The amount and level of prospects that have been traded thus far has actually increased my hope that the Twins get a really good prospect in return for Dozier. Have you been surprised at the level of prospect that has changed hands this year?
Klaw: I’ve been pleased by it, but not that surprised. Lot of teams built to win right now.

Rob: Does it seem to you like Jason Heyward needs to rebuild his swing from scratch? It looks to the naked eye (not a scout) like it’s way too long.
Klaw: Yes. I think the biggest issue is (may be) where he starts his hands, so he’s coming down at the ball and putting it on the ground.

Andrew: What do you make of Otani still wanting to come over next year despite the severely limited earning potential? MLB/owners thrilled or wondering what they haven’t figured out?
Klaw: I have a sneaking suspicion that Otani’s still going to end up with his money one way or another.

Chris: I love going through your chats and reading about prospects and money allotments and who could be traded for who…then all of a sudden come across a great political point from you. Keep up the good work with your “Liberal Agenda” KLaw Marx!
Klaw: I’ll keep pounding the table for such extreme ideas as “women should have the same rights as men” or “we shouldn’t dump dangerous compounds into our drinking water.”

Chris: You ranked Corbin Martin pretty high in your draft rankings since he performed well on the Cape. If he can keep up that type of performance, is he a candidate for top 3?
Klaw: I don’t think he has that kind of upside.

Frank: Is there a more scientific way to test for pitcher injuries? Is there an MRI that can show thickness of tendons, and flexibility of a particular pitcher? Seems like your “eyeball” mechanics test is very flawed to the point of almost useless.
Klaw: Cool, thanks for reading.

Jonathan: any good comparison for Braxton Garrett ? is he ready to start in Greensboro ?
Klaw: I think with that curveball he has to go to full-season ball now, because in extended spring he’s just going to wipe those hitters out with it.

Joe: What were you thoughts on having the winter meetings in National Harbor/DC? The vibe I got from a lot of writers was negative.
Klaw: I don’t like these all-in-one complexes where it’s an effort to go outside, and where we’re a good distance from the city we’re supposedly in. When I travel for work I try to do something to soak up a little culture, whether it’s just food or something like a museum or, say, the Oklahoma City Memorial, which might still be my top memory of something I visited while traveling to see a player. National Harbor is this synthetic shopping complex a good 20 minutes south of a pretty good city.

Ed: Hi Keith. Thank you for taking the time to do these chats. I got Splendor for the kids and me last Christmas on your recommendation and it’s been a hit. May I please ask for another suggestion that would be suitable for 8th and 5th graders? Thank you.
Klaw: Ticket to Ride, Small World, Stone Age (although it’s out of print right now).

Dennis: Hi Keith, I’m getting a little bored with literary minimalism, so I’m thinking of tackling Henry James. Any recommendations for a Henry James neophyte? Thank you for the chat, and happy holidays!
Klaw: I liked Portrait of a Lady and hated Wings of the Dove.

Nick: Ever made your own bbq sauce? I’ve been experimenting with my own lately and have found Coke to be a useful ingredient. Any suggestions?
Klaw: That BBQ sauce sounds addictive.

Chris: Fangraphs rated Yadier Alvarez the Dodgers top prospect, which goes against most other rankings. What are your thoughts on that and what do you believe his ceiling to be?
Klaw: I will do my rankings in January, but I would be the last person on earth to say that someone going against most other rankings is just wrong.

Matthew: As a French press guy that has not tried pour over, I was just curious what differences lead to your preference?
Klaw: I think pour-over leads to a cleaner cup.

AJ: Did the Royals get enough in the Wade Davis trade? Did they overvalue Soler?
Klaw: I wrote this up and I don’t think they overvalued Soler or got too little.

Marshall MN: Thus far Trump has named a SecEd that doesn’t believe in public education, a head of the EPA who doesn’t care about protecting the environment, a SecLabor who doesn’t care about laborers, an Attorney General who doesn’t care about civil rights, not to mention other just horrid appointments – things are looking even worse than I feared at this point.
Klaw: And his Labor pick’s ex-wife accused him more than once of assaulting her. Where is the Republican leadership on this? Are they good with a wife-beater in the Cabinet, just to get the policies they want? They couldn’t find a conservative Labor candidate who doesn’t hit women?

ITYSB: What are your thoughts on the DNC leadership refusing to take a long, hard look at reality? Reid said the only thing wrong with the DNC is it’s marketing. Pelosi said they don’t need to learn anything from losing and that Sanders’ progressive values have no part in their strategy.
Klaw: I thought after this debacle, and word that the Clinton campaign did little or nothing on the ground to boost turnout, the DNC would turn its whole leadership over, and instead they’re singing a praise chorus while the ship sinks.

Matt: Aren’t October outs “more valuable” than outs in the regular season? I can see it being dumb to pay so much money for a reliever like Chapman if you are not really expecting to go anywhere. But I’m sure the Yankees have a plan to make a run for the WS in the next 5 years and they deemed paying Chapman that money would be worth it if he’s able to get those outs in October. Then again, you can probably throw any reliever out there to get 3 outs so what do I know.
Klaw: But also can they know with enough certainty that Chapman will still be the best guy for those 3 outs in October of 2019? I don’t think so. Relievers are volatile. And we’ve never seen anyone throw this hard before so we have no comps, good or bad, for his potential to stay healthy and/or effective.

Jarrod: Is small ball officially a thing of the past? There seem to be clear cases where it pays off (a SB can easily shift a teams chance of winning by a few percentage points, which adds up). But the analytics say it’s not worth it. If pitchers continue to become more unhittable, doesn’t that make every little advance on the bases valuable?
Klaw: Small ball is useful in small doses, in specific situations. And we’re getting to the point where it’s used less often than it was albeit probably still more often than it should be.

AJ: In-N-Out vs Shake Shack?
Klaw: Shake Shack, and it’s not even a little bit close.

Andy: Plus almost all of the nominations are millionaires.
Klaw: It’s not like he knows anyone who isn’t.

Matt: My younger sister (24) clearly has an anxiety problem to the point where it interferes with our family dynamic. I’ve begged/insisted/pleaded for her to get help (see a therapist and/or try anti-anxiety medication) but she comes up with an excuse or insists there isn’t a problem. Do you have any advice? Thanks a lot.
Klaw: It’s hard to push someone who doesn’t want help, but the one thing you might try is seeing if you can get her to talk to someone who’s gotten help and seen the benefit. My quality of life improved once I got medication and therapy and developed some coping skills for it.

DH: You’re given carte blanche over the organization of MLB teams. Do you move Oakland? add teams in Charlotte, Montreal, or some other cities? reorganize divisions? what’s your priority list?
Klaw: I think Oakland to the San Jose area solves that problem. Tampa Bay may need a new market entirely. The biggest undeserved market I see in the US/Canada right now is the Austin/San Antonio area, which has over 3 million people in two cities that are about 70 miles apart, but is 3-4 hours away from the nearest team. Of course, Texas’ state government is busy trying to recreate 1890, so maybe that’s not the best target for relocation.

Jesse: You continue to say if you were a GM you wouldn’t sign someone with Chapmans history. What if the owner said “I want to sign him regardless”. Isn’t your job to do what the owner says? I’m sure disagreements come up all the time between what a GM and owner respectively want to do, but it’s not like there are thousands of other GM jobs out there..
Klaw: Then I would quit. This isn’t complicated.

Tom: I know you recommend your espresso machine, but I’m wondering if you’ve heard any good feedback on brands under $500 (price and space constraints are possible roadblocks for me).
Klaw: I had a Gaggia Carezza for years and I liked it, even if it wasn’t as good as what I have now. It’s a true espresso machine, not one of the fakes you’ll see for $60 at Bloodbath & Beyond. I think they’ve replaced that model with the Evolution. But it’s not really any smaller – it’s still too tall for any cabinet I’ve had.

Pat D: I could have sworn you once wrote that you weren’t sure if Kopech could stick as a starter, but your analysis of him this week made no such mention. So am I just obviously misremembering?
Klaw: I don’t remember saying that, but prospects his age change quickly, so maybe I said it about him in high school and revised it this year when he pitched so well and I also got a fresh look?

bill: you should en your chats by just signing off and no good bye. I bet a lot of people will be confused or think they have connection probs.
Klaw: That’s just mean.

Comments

  1. Do you know if scouts received raises as a result of the nEw dol regulation on salary employees? Has it had any impact on baseball in terms of front office staffing?

  2. As a Yankee fan, I say trade Tanaka and Betances. Could the Yankees theoretically add 4 top 30 prospects doing so? All in on selling

  3. Sad that I missed the chat as it occurred, but the last question/answer was priceless.

  4. The Dude Abides

    Hi Keith, FYI your top 50 free agents column says that Jansen was the one who signed with the Yankees for 5/86, not Chapman.

  5. Larry I in L.A.

    I agree that Shake Shack > In-N-Out, but there’s more to the story. I love the SmokeShack (delicious beef, cherry peppers…mmm) over the totally solid Double Double. Although I’ve come to appreciate the unadorned french fries served by In-N-Out, they are outclassed by the Crinkle Cut Fries at SS. Finally, In-N-Out serves a creamy and delicious vanilla shake, but the vanilla frozen custard at SS is the stuff that dreams are made of.

    The problem, of course, is this combination of burger/fries/ice cream is between $8-9 at In-N-Out, but close to $20 at Shake Shack. Shake Shack (and Five Guys on a good day, too) may be superior to In-N-Out, but it’s simply NOT more than twice as good.

    With the (relatively) recent invasion of a few out-of-state chains, Los Angeles now has a wealth of high-quality fast food burgers. My favorites (based on taste only): 1. Shake Shack 2. Five Guys 3. In-N-Out 4. Smashburger 5. Fatburger 6. The Habit…but In-N-Out dominates as the best overall value.

  6. Keith, your in n out comment is the only time I’ve wanted you to stick to baseball. Also, thanks for no longer hating the white sox.

  7. Keith,
    Have you thought about a patreon page? I would like to support you and your work (regardless of your political opinions), but I am not sure if buying a book is the best use of those funds since some little of those funds actually get to you.
    Mike D.
    PS Maybe your publishers would not like you answering but I thank you for all of your content.

  8. What was the answer to, “Klaw, How can you be so sensible in every other aspect but have such a bad taste in music?”

  9. Keith – Apologies for reaching out to you in this forum, but I was unable to find another way to contact you other than your Twitter account. It was great to meet you briefly at the Winter Meetings earlier this week. Thank you for being so generous with your time. If you ever need a set of eyes on an amateur prospect in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, or Western PA that you are unable see in person, I’d be happy to observe and report back to you. You have my card, please feel free to contact me at any time.

    P.S. Can’t wait for the book.

  10. I’m mad I missed the chat because I want to hear you comment on this thought.
    Yankees might have signed a contract of 5/86 for Chapman, but they put it on their cash back credit card. They will get a refund on money that Betances loses in arbitration over the next couple of years. We know the save is an overrated stat and limiting the amount of them Betances collects will hinder the total sum of money he makes through the arbitration system. I still don’t love 5 years, but consider they probably had to add the 5th year to get him, it’s not as expensive due to this situation. Being the Yankees they need to make sure they can win the games they should win to keep their fans in the seats and stop John Oliver from buying them up for a laugh.
    Do you agree they will save some money or am I smoking wood chips?

    • They may save a little, but probably not enough to justify the overpayment on Aroldis.

  11. Keith,

    I am trying to replace some bakeware for my wife for Christmas and was wondering if you had an opinion. I had previously purchased Wilton products, but was curious as to whether Analon or Circulon products, both manufactored by Meyer, were worth the additional money.