Klawchat 5/19/16.

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Klaw: Got a loaded imagination being fired by Klawchat.

Alan: With Fredi Gonzalez being fired we all know that there are no longer any Latino managers. BUT can you at least acknowledge the narrative that exists by simply saying: X Latino players and 0 Latino managers = discrimination. In order to properly determine this you must look to the number of qualified candidates and analyze the population pool, etc. (I agree that qualified Latino candidates exist but the number of Latino players is not the proper measurement.)
Klaw: But it is absolutely the right way to look at it, because white ex-players with no managerial experience are hired all the time, so every Latino ex-player is automatically qualified for the job of manager too.

Joe C.: Hi Keith. I have a friend who may or may not be drafted this year out of HS. He is in talks with a couple teams about bonus ideas, and I am just looking for your take on the situation. I know you’ve been outspoken about if drafted out of HS, a player is better served signing, as opposed to going to college, esp. pitchers. My friend is a position player and has a commitment to a good D1 school, and also in my opinion and in his family’s could be well-served maturity wise to go to school and live a college life while playing ball for a few years. Whereas if he signed we’d worry he’d be a bit lost as an individual on his own, not with thousands of other freshmen undergrads in a similar situation. If just curious of your thoughts and wonder if the “if drafted out of HS, the best baseball career path choice is to sign” isn’t a one-size-fits-all theory.
Klaw: Truly depends on how much he’s being offered, whether he’s going high enough in the draft that reaching the majors is somewhat realistic, and what the school and scholarship in question are. If teams are offering him $100K, and he’s got a commitment to a good academic school with at least a half scholarship, then signing may not make much sense for him. It’s hard for me to give specific advice without specifics. The theory you mention is just my general advice for the majority of good HS players but not for all.

Woodsy: Hi Keith! I’m curious why, in your Mock Draft 1.0, that you have the Red Sox taking Nolan Jones, when they could pick the seemingly more talented and higher-ceiling player in Delvin Perez. Thanks for your great work!
Klaw: Because the mock draft is based on what my sources indicate to me that teams will actually do. If the Red Sox believe Jones is the better prospect, they’ll take him over Perez. That seems to be the case.

Henry: When I was an undergrad philosophy major, the quality of class discussions was directly related to the professor’s willingness to call people on their bullshit. All that to say, thanks for using your public persona to insist people use *gasp* facts and logic.
Klaw: You’re welcome. Lot of strawmen and ad hominems thrown at me on Twitter this morning over Baylor and this Washington NFL team name poll.

Greg: What are the chances Kyle Lewis falls to Atlanta at 3? Do you think they’d take him if he did?
Klaw: 40-50% chance, think they’d take him if Groome is gone.

Dan: International prospect question. For a team like Atlanta that we know is going to blow past their signing pool, are they allowed to deal their pool money to other teams? It seems like another way to acquire assets since they’re going to blow past the pool anyway.
Klaw: The Dodgers did this last year.

Chris: Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria were Top 10 prospects coming up through the minors who had star-level seasons in their early 20’s and now look like they are done while only being in the early 30’s. What happened?
Klaw: I don’t have a great answer to that but both guys had a lot of injuries in their 20s. Maybe that’s the reason?

Lucas: Anything Chad Kuhl can do to change your opinion on him being a reliever? Outstanding stats so far
Klaw: The stats aren’t really the issue. I got this a lot with Tyler Thornburg and Brad Peacock, with lots of Brewers/Nats fans getting Mad Online when I said both still projected as relievers despite great minor league numbers as starters. Deliveries and stuff matter too.

Austin: Is there anything more disingenuous in baseball than the excuses GMs give to justify holding prospects down when we all know it’s the Super Two? If Jameson Taillon tossed a no-hitter today and K’d 17 in the process, I’m fairly confident Neal Huntington would say something like “we’re obviously pleased with the results, but we really want to see him work on inducing more weak contact.” It’s to a point where something has to happen in the next CBA, right?
Klaw: I don’t know how to legislate it better, though.

John: What is your take on Fredi Gonzalez firing?
Klaw: They should have done it in November and hired the right long-term guy then and there.

Andy: Looking ahead to next year, how should the Cubs handle their catching situation? Contreras, Montero, and even Schwarber?
Klaw: Schwarber can’t catch. i didn’t like him as a catcher before the knee injury. Now it seems like it’s completely off the table. I’m assuming they ease Contreras in later this year given how he’s started in AAA.

Shane (Erie, PA): Keith, have you ever gotten feedback (negative or positive) in person from a player after assessing their talent level, play, etc. in a column?
Klaw: Yes. Most of the time it’s very friendly. Occasionally I get a player who doesn’t understand that the evaluations are not personal and that this is my job. They’re getting evaluated by scouts all the time, but those reports aren’t public, so perhaps it’s awkward for them to hear an objective (if possibly incorrect) evaluation or projection of their abilities. But most players get it – look at Stroman trolling me for thinking he might be too short to start because he lacked fastball plane. I thought that was great.

Jim: Tyler Goeddel is heating up. Can he be another Rule 5 steal for the Phillies?
Klaw: Well if you get any value in the rule 5 draft it’s a steal, so yes. I don’t think he’s a star, but I think he’s a useful big leaguer.

Andy: Fun stat. There are 5 Mets pitchers who have a higher ISO than Texas D”H” Prince Fielder. The answer to what the Rangers do when Choo comes back is pretty clear. Heck, putting Profar at SS and moving Andrus to DH would also improve their hitting.
Klaw: Yep. I hope they’re not too blind to the salary to realize benching Fielder is the right move. That front office is pretty sharp.

Ryan in MKE: I know you’re a firm believer in taking “best player available” but does it make sense for teams to either seek or avoid riskier prospects with more upside based on what they already have in their system? Seems like Milwaukee could stand some more risk at 5 in pursuit of a superstar because of the current depth they posses. Thoughts?
Klaw: That’s fair. I’d also be willing to consider arguments like, “hey, we’re really terrible at developing high school pitchers, so maybe we shouldn’t take them until we fix that.”

Steeeeve: It doesn’t seem that the Astros are considering moving Correa to 3b and Bregman at SS. I know that Bregman may not be the best at 3b but would he be adequate? Could Bregman play LF?
Klaw: I’d rather see Correa at 3b, where I think he’ll be excellent, and Bregman at ss, where I think he’ll be no worse than Correa (who appears to be below-average there). That’s a better alignment than Correa at ss and Bregman at 3b, where I think both guys would be below-average because Bregman doesn’t have the arm for third.

Jim in Chicago: Have you heard anything linking the White Sox to Wisconsin prep SS Gavin Lux? Will he be around at #26?
Klaw: I mean, that’s what I said in my mock draft.

Rob: It looks like Jorge Mateo’s not so much switching to 2B as preparing to play 2B-SS at AA this year. Is this the right approach for his development? Do you think he moves to 2B eventually?
Klaw: I had a limited look at him last year but didn’t love his hands at short. That said, I don’t believe in moving a young player off a position like that unless you’re absolutely sure he can’t play it. I didn’t think the Yanks were at that point with Mateo.

Jim: Do you think there is any hypocrisy in beating the drum for Fredi’s firing (over the top imo) and then complaining about the lack of diversity in managers after he is fired?
Klaw: Nothing’s stopping Atlanta from simply hiring a better tactical manager who is also a person of color. So, Mr. Coppolella, allow me to introduce you to my friend Alex Cora…

Ray A.: Hi Keith. Had a chance to see Mickey Moniak play this week. Had 3 more hits. I think the only tool missing is power, but power was missing from Trout too, then he developed it in the minors. How high is Moniak’s ceiling? He was a treat too watch live.
Klaw: Were you there on Tuesday? I was, and he had three singles, a HBP, and a popup to left field. He needs a lot of work to develop power, IMO. He’s got a narrow stance, no stride, and a very flat swing plane. His hands are quick and he keeps the bat in the zone a long time, but you’re talking a number of significant mechanical changes and then hoping he has the hand and wrist strength to drive the ball. I like him a lot for what he is but don’t see him developing Trout’s power. Trout had more power than Moniak as a senior and Trout was younger too.

Larry: I know this is probably a shot in the dark, but have you heard any names connected to Atlanta at 40 and 44 overall?
Klaw: Yes, I’ve mentioned a bunch in my writeups so far and have also heard them on Matthias Dietz at Logan JC.

Larry: Are we to the point where you have any feel for guys with signability issues, or is it still too early?
Klaw: Getting there. Manning, Ian Anderson, possibly Wentz. Garrett won’t be cheap as a Vanderbilt commit. Some others, like Drake Fellows, Zeferjahn, Linginfelter all appear to be unlikely to sign. I hate saying unsignable because few players are although Noah Murdock and Tyler Baum appear to have zero interest in pro ball right now.

Binnin: Who is one player in this draft who you are higher on in the draft than others? A player you are lower on?
Klaw: Probably higher on Bo Bichette and lower on Buddy Reed. Reed’s a good athlete and might be a 6 defender in center but he can’t hit with his current swing.

Bob (N Wilmington): Two Stones or Ulysses?
Klaw: Two Stones. Better food, to say nothing of the beer selection.

Anonymous: Mitch Keller looks like he’s finally starting to show some of the potential that made him such an attractive prospect out of HS. Could you see him as a guy who could emerge in your top 100 sometime this year – either mid season or preseason next year?
Klaw: Yes, no question.

Kyler: Given you stance on vaccination are you against circumcision for minors? It’s a religious thing more than and not, and freely choose by the child.
Klaw: We had decided before my wife got pregnant that we would have circumsized the baby had it been a boy.

Steve: If Lewis is gone before pick 3, you believe that Braves would take Groome. Do you prefer Groome to Pint? Why? Others have said Braves would lean more toward Pint.
Klaw: I don’t know who “others” are or why they’d say that because I don’t think that’s true at all. Groome’s the better prospect and Atlanta prefers him.

Jason: Glasnow seems to be alternating between dominance and struggling with command either other start at Triple-A. Do you foresee him struggling to throw strikes constantly at the big league level this year?
Klaw: This sounds like box-score scouting. That said, his command has always lagged his stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised if he came up and was an effective five-inning starter who gets pulled frequently due to high pitch counts.

Emily: Thoughts on the Wash Post poll today?
Klaw: Extrapolated over the entire Native American population, it’s saying that roughly 540,000 Native Americans are offended by the team’s nickname, perhaps as many as 800K (the survey had N=504 and thus a wide error bar). That’s a lot of people. Others are trying to attack the survey’s methodology, but I don’t quite see that objection. How about just accepting that that is a lot of people to offend with a team name that seeks federal trademark protection and for an organization that wants a big public subsidy?

Rob: Interesting that many college arms are rising up in the mock drafts despite that market being thin. Doesn’t it make more sense to go after a high school arm, such as Ian Anderson, who has upside?
Klaw: Maybe it does, but there is the same flight to safety every year in the draft. We talk all spring about the great high-ceiling prep arms, and when it’s nut-cutting time, teams flock to the security of the college player.

It’s a game, dammit!: Klaw, I just don’t see the point of all the finger-wagging and clutching of pearls by some players and broadcasters at walk-off celebrations. Loved the Khris Davis jump shot, e.g. Considering that we’re all just trying to wring as much joy from this weary life as possible before the galaxies collide, why is a bit of fun and entertainment so decried?
Klaw: I’ve got no issue with Davis’ jump shot or Bautista’s bat flip. Celebrations are great. You start taunting other players, throwing punches, going in spikes-up – that’s another story. But celebrating the positives is to be encouraged.

Brian: Would you ever take a HS arm at 1-1?
Klaw: Yes. I would have taken Brady Aiken there, since at the time none of us knew he had an issue with his left elbow UCL.

Jeff: Klaw – have you ever met Bomani Jones in your time at ESPN? You are two of my favorite follows at ESPN, and I would pay to watch/listen to the two of you discuss current events/economics. It’d be like the anti-PTI.
Klaw: I have not but I enjoy much of his content and willingness to take principled stands.

Dan: Jake Fraley wasn’t included in your top 100 draft prospects, but does he have the tools to project as a MLB regular? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he’s more of an extra OF, but I’ll see him in Hoover next week and get a fresh look.

Alan: Every current Latino player is NOT qualified. Most don’t speak English, do not have a college education (I think 2 managers currently do not) or adequate high school education. All things are not equal here.
Klaw: Why is a college education required to be a major league manager? And plenty of current managers don’t speak Spanish, so I don’t see your language objection.

Greg: Trying to think of a comp for Nick Senzel. How does he compare to a draft prospect like Stephen Piscotty? Does Senzel have a chance to play 2B?
Klaw: The guy whose name keeps coming to my mind is Bill Mueller: Solid at third but unspectacular, best attribute was ability to hit. Senzel has more raw power than Mueller ever did, but has yet to show it in games. If you take Senzel 6th, as I have him in my latest mock, and get Bill Mueller (24 WAR, 11 year career), you actually did fairly well but I’m sure you wanted more. Senzel seems to offer the chance of more, though, if the power ever translates into games.

wickethewok: I’m surprised the Pirates are highest on Zack Burdi. Can see Huntington actually taking him in the first round in order to bolster the 2016 bullpen? As a fan, I’d be nervous about the second coming of Daniel Moskos.
Klaw: Fair concern but Burdi’s a lot better – 98-101 right now with a slider at something like 88-91. He could probably miss bats right away, although I don’t think the command is there yet.

BRB: Do you ever pull your punches because you know the guy on the receiving end is a real-life human being?
Klaw: I’m pretty careful about how I phrase criticisms of young players, especially high school kids. A friend told me about nine years ago that he thought I was too critical in my writeups of some teenagers and I worked to tone it down and focus at least as much on what the player can do than on what he can’t.

Zorak: So Eric Longerhagen is now switching teams over to fangraphs. Did you negotiate for anything in return? A promise to stop having Eno’s chat directly compete with yours? Really though, I’ve been impressed with his coverage as a compliment to yours, and wish him all the best.
Klaw: Eric did great work for me and I’m happy he’ll get a chance to do this stuff full-time. I’ve been very lucky over the years to have some great people working with me on the draft blog.

Anthony: What are your thoughts on Pomeranz to start the year? Looks like he’s throwing offspeed stuff much more frequently and added a cutter to his repertoire. Is this success sustainable?
Klaw: I think so. Not a sub-2 ERA guy, of course, but say 3-3.50 the rest of the way (factoring in the friendliness of Petco)? I’d accept that.

Michael: How do you generally respond to fallacies in person, not on Twitter? Someone yesterday equated my lack of skepticism over the NBA lottery being fixed (there’s no evidence) with me not supporting science and math because they are built on skepticism…
Klaw: Same way. Someone throws a fallacious argument at me, I point it out. The alternatives are to try to reason with it (terrible idea) or ignore it and walk away (I’ve done that too).

Or: What’s your read of Ryan Cordell’s start? Is the improvement real?
Klaw: He’s 24 in AA and had half a season there last year too. Tough to get much of a read on him given that.

Eric: Aaron Nola was widely projected to be a good mid-rotation guy, but he’s performed like an ace this season. Do you think his currently level of production is sustainable?
Klaw: Curveball is much improved since the start of 2015. Definitely think he’s a better pitcher now than anyone, myself included, believed he’d be.

Joe: Do you know what the Orioles see in Rickard? I see a below average hitter and fielder. I can’t understand why he plays everyday and bats leadoff.
Klaw: I don’t either. Maybe he plays the game the right way.

Dan: Parenting/Baseball advice needed. My 8 year old son is finishing up his baseball season. He is one of the better players on the team, if not the best – or at least he was. He started the season really strong and was having tons of fun. Now, he has been in a bad slump at the plate and it’s taken a lot of the fun out of it for him. Any tips/advice on how to help him out?
Klaw: I wish I did, but all I could suggest is giving him some time away from the game this summer.

Neudell: How often does a guy you have literally never heard of get drafted within the first few rounds? What is the highest one of these guys has been drafted since you’ve been covering the draft like this?
Klaw: Rangers did it in 2011 with Kevin Matthews at the very end of the first round. He was maybe a fifth-round talent, and walked almost a man an inning in his pro career around TJ surgery, eventually getting released last year after 132 pro innings. I had no notes on him at all when he was picked because none of the scouts I knew down there thought he was worth mentioning.

Mitch: Chris Tillman has notably increased his strikeout rate through 50+ IP this year (and also somewhat flukishly reduced his HR rate). Has he changed something to make the improvement sustainable?
Klaw: The lower HR rate is totally unsustainable and why I’m not buying into the breakout that much.

Jeff: Sup with all this “should the Angels trade Trout?” talk – it ain’t happening.
Klaw: It’s definitely not happening (although I think the idea has merit) and it’s probably time to move on.

DH: You have the Pirates considering Thaiss at 22. Do you think they view him as an option to stay at catcher? If not, does he have enough pop to play a corner?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s a catcher long term. I think he can hit, though.

Neudell: I read an article about a movement afoot to forbid universities from getting athletes to commit until the middle of their junior years. It seems like it will be good for both sides of the equation….kids won’t be trying to decide where to spend their college years when they are 13 or 14; and, schools won’t be racing to land kids who may regress in relation to their peers over the last 2 or 3 years of high school. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: I’m all for that. I’d also like to see the end of the rule that requires players to sit out a year after transferring.

James: Best pop up prospect this year’s draft?
Klaw: Justin Dunn. Jeff Belge. Maybe Taylor Trammell.

Philip: Done is unfair to Longoria, as he still is a strong defender and above average hitter
Klaw: Yes, sorry, in his case I think it’s more a question of how he went from being a 7-WAR player at 23 to half that at 29.

Brian: We all know Dan Vogelbach is a DH. And stats from the PCL aren’t to be trusted. But is Dan Vogelbach worth anything in a trade? Can he be a secondary piece in any kind of meaningful move?
Klaw: Yes, I think he can.

Anonymous: Reading about AJ Puk, how likely do you think his delivery issues will mean he’s a reliever? Scouting the stat line and just a couple of other people’s reports, he looks kind of like Andrew Miller.
Klaw: I’ve heard the Drew Pomeranz comp on him too, another big SEC lefty with some delivery issues. I don’t see Puk as a reliever, but I don’t think he’ll have average command or downhill plane with his current delivery.

Erik: Or how about telling this 540,000 people to grow up. If you don’t like the name, ignore them or root for them to lose. The nickname a football team has zero actual impact on anyone’s life unless they let it bother them
Klaw: Yet there has to be some point at which you’d join the 540,000, right? Would you accept a team with a nickname like the n-word? or a comparable slur against Jews or Asian-Americans or gays? My stance, whether you agree or not, is internally consistent: No slurs as team names.

Nick: What’s your favorite restaurant in Disney World?
Klaw: Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Elton: Aren’t you writing a book or something? Give us some intel please (and other ways to fund you … maybe design a board game?)
Klaw: I am writing a book, due out in April. I believe Harper Collins will announce it when we settle on a title.

Robert: What happens if more people are offended by the team being forced to change its name? I don’t agree with that thinking, but your response indicates the level of people offended by something should be a factor. Someone will argue that works both ways.
Klaw: The idea of “offense” at the removal of an ethnic slur is highly comical.

Ernie Camacho: How much should Bradley Zimmer’s 30% K rate in Akron worry me?
Klaw: It’s keeping him off my top 25 prospects update for next week.

Drew: Biggest concern with K. Lewis ? Like his upside for the Reds but feel that I like Senzel more with his all around game. How strong do you think Reds interest in Delvin Perez ? Thanks
Klaw: I think the Reds are out on Delvin. Lewis’ biggest issue is lack of at bats against good competition. He swings and misses a bit too much and is in a mid-major-at-best conference. I also wish he ran better but that might be a quibble.

Jeff R: Thank you for not sticking to baseball.
Klaw: I couldn’t if I tried.

Ryan: How many players do teams in the late first round truly consider? If they pick 25th, do they just make a list of 25 guys?
Klaw: You have to. Every year I hear of a team that has that happen – they list 25 guys for the 25th pick and 24 of them are taken in picks 1 through 24. In fact, I believe that happened to Cleveland last year, and the only name left was Aiken.

Bo: For someone who finds an awful lot of things to be offended by, and in some situations goes out of his way to be offended by things, you must understand that some people will absolutely take exception to bat flips such as Bautista’s, as they genuinely do consider it taunting. Might not be intended that way, but sometimes it comes across that way.
Klaw: Sure, I absolutely understand that. I personally don’t see it that way. Although your claim that I go out of my way to be offended is really fucking stupid.

Jason: Peter O’Brian anymore than a fourth outfielder?
Klaw: Don’t think so. Bad defender with a below-average hit tool. I don’t have to tell you about the power, though.

RobM: I know you’ve argued that a high school pitcher drafted should sign with a MLB team, but what happens if the pitcher drops due to a non-career-threatening injury, or because weather prevented them from getting properly scouted? Can the argument be made they should then head to college?
Klaw: Yes, that’s also reasonable. If Ian Anderson goes to Vanderbilt he might be 1-1 in three years.

Dave: Have a mail-order coffee roaster recommendation? For bonus points – favorite variety?
Klaw: Too many to name, but I’ll mention Intelligentsia (any time they have Gesha, also loved the Aqua Preta Ltd as an espresso and the current Zambian offering), Four Barrel (Rwanda Musabiymana), or anything from Cartel or Heart.

Drew: One time a few years ago you torched me pretty good in one of your chats. What I did, since I’m a goddamned grown up, is went on with my life because whatever, a guy on the internet said something that stung.
Klaw: Literal LOL at this. Thanks for that – and for still being here despite whatever I did.

Jeff: I’ve heard that before his injury, Cal Quantrill was a potential 1-1 guy in this years draft. Assuming he comes back fine, how high is his ceiling and what makes him exceptional?
Klaw: We think so, but really, who knows if he would have been 1-1? He didn’t pitch so he couldn’t disprove the assertion. Alec Hanson was 1-1 good last spring, and now he’s out of the first round.

Philip: Any thoughts on Jacob Nix from scouts? He’s done well statistically, but obviously can’t just scout statline and he isn’t getting extended beyond 75 pitches
Klaw: Have heard very good things – FB and CB both still there, CH improving.

Erik: Why do you care about a player’s off-field behavior? When I buy tickets I want to see the possible product on the field. As long as they are available on game day, I couldn’t care less what a player may have been accused of. That goes for all fields. If you are among the very best at what you do, we should all want that person doing that job.
Klaw: I care about it if it affects his ability to do that job, may affect his teammates’ ability to do that job, may land him in jail, or may result in harm to another person. I don’t care if he’s just a jerk or a brony or whatever.

JB: I know the chances of Bundy ever returning to starting are slim, but what are the chances he can end up a high leverage reliever?
Klaw: I don’t know what the odds are he becomes something better than what he is now. He looks like a shell of his pre-injury self.

steve: I know you said at the begining of the season Folty might profile as a reliever. Seems impressive the past 3 games. Think he can stick in the rotation. I know you were high on him before.
Klaw: Tiny sample but promising. Same for Jonathan Gray, although there I’m buying a little earlier because this is really what he looked like before the Rockies’ PD folks tinkered with his delivery. (They need to stop doing that.)

Collin: The thing I’m most intrigued about in this draft are the character concerns regarding Delvin Perez. Are they as easily explainable as “he’s so much better than the competition in Puerto Rico he doesn’t have to work as hard as he should,” or is it, “if we give this kid some money he will cash his checks and phone it in?”
Klaw: It’s more that he doesn’t always seem to work hard or take responsibilities seriously, and he’s acted out on the field in ways that aren’t appropriate for a high school senior (like taunting opponents or jawing at an opposing coach). I also think it can all improve with age and getting him with the right coach or teammates. It’s not like he’s a budding sociopath.

AH: Klaw you’re a smart guy and far and away my favorite baseball writer. But How do you manage to attract the Twitter cesspool? Better yet, how does it not drive you insane?
Klaw: Klaw 21 minutes ago

Karla: Not an a question just sharing an essay you might find interesting.
Klaw: Thank you – this looks very interesting.

John: Kevin Newman has struck out 7 times in 143 PA and has a .418 OBP this year. Is it time for him to get called up to AA?
Klaw: I think that’s fair. I’d like to see him hit for some more doubles power, though.

Jay: Have you seen much of Tyler Beede this year? Do you see him potentially being called up later this year? What do you view as his ceiling?
Klaw: I haven’t seen any pro stuff in about a month because it’s all draft all the time right now. I’ll resume seeing pro guys after June 11th. I don’t have Beede as more than an average starter because of the poor fastball command.

addoeh: The theory of trading someone like Trout is worth discussing, like the Gretzky trade or Walker trade. But the practice of actually trading him now isn’t worth discussing. Is that fair?
Klaw: A good summary of the situation. Did the Gretzky trade work out for Edmonton? I can’t recall. The Walker deal worked out for Dallas, I’d say.

Ben: Is there any chance that JB Woodman sneaks into the top 3 Rounds? He’s been on a tear against SEC pitching this year (.340/.434/.640 in conference games), although he did miss Florida and Vandy.
Klaw: And struck out in literally half his at bats on the Cape. He’s not a top three rounds guy.

Brian: Keith, can you explain to me the investigation MLB seems to be making on the Red Sox pooling of international money. I understand the basics, but most of what I read says it’s a fairly common practice and not even against the rules. So why do they even investigate it?
Klaw: Oh it’s against the rules all right. It’s also a common practice but something here triggered an investigation. You can’t circumvent the bonus pool limits by spreading the money across multiple players who then redistribute it after the fact. If that’s what happened, the team will be penalized. The players will not be disciplined, however.

Chris (Chicago): Did you hear any of the new Wolf Parade EP? If so, any thoughts? It’s great that they’re back after their hiatus.
Klaw: Yep, got a track from that on my playlist for the end of this month.

JD: Are you planning to try Pandemic Legacy? Hard to see how you’d fit it in your schedule, but we’re a couple sessions in and it’s phenomenal.
Klaw: I have no interest in a game that requires that many sessions to play. We change up what we play often and I always have more games to review.

Scott: Were you ever a basketball fan growing up?
Klaw: It was my least favorite sport to watch. I preferred soccer to hoops.

Andrew: Thanks for being so outspoken about your anxiety Keith. I actually suffer from bipolar disorder. When your “manic” you can pretty much do anything. My motivation to do things wasn’t always there but it was for the time when the manic episode went away and now I’m back to square one where I lack motivation. Any advice on what I can do to help motivate myself again? The only thing I can think of is possibly getting a girlfriend who I’d want to be my best self for.
Klaw: I’m not a therapist but I think a therapist would say that you have to be able to do this for yourself rather than relying on another person to be your motivation. Exercise and perhaps medication (which you may already be on) seem like two safe bets.

Elton: “Ticket To Slide: My Year of Playing Board Games with Baseball’s Top Prospects in America’s Top Restaurants”. You won’t get a more compelling book title than that.
Klaw: Step 3: Profit.

Chris (Chicago): I have a 6yo daughter that is severely allergic to peanuts. She loves baseball, but we can’t take her to games because our local team has no designated, nut-free section. Her allergy isn’t that uncommon, but baseball doesn’t seem very accommodating yet. How much longer until they get up to speed? My kid feels different enough when she has to sit at the “peanut-free” table at school or can’t eat cake at parties. It just really sucks.
Klaw: I feel like I’ve heard of other teams doing this. Also, have you looked into the microdose treatments for peanut allergies? If my daughter had developed that allergy we were going to pursue the treatment, because of just what you describe. You must be afraid for her all the time.

Scott: As a huge fan of your writing, I look forward to seeing a new article, post and chat both here and other outlets. But I was curious as to your thoughts on the value of your time in writing the revisionist draft history pieces. Is this something you are assigned or something you see as worth examining because it has value to how teams make decisions presently?
Klaw: I find them incredibly fun to revisit. Readers like them and folks within MLB mention enjoying them too. Plus I love some of the old draft stories like the area guy who pounded the table for Chris Archer in Cleveland. (Also, “Cleveland Archer” was the Westchester County DA in the Nero Wolfe stories. I just wanted to mention that.)

Dan: JP Crawford has been walking a ton this year; he’s at 18% BB rate so far. Do you know if this is a concerted effort to walk more this season? Is that a long-term part of his hit tool?
Klaw: He has always had outstanding plate discipline. I’ve been talking that up since he was first in pro ball.

RobM: Don’t let the forces of evil and stupid on Twitter cause you to leave. Most people who follow you are silent but love the content. Remember the good.
Klaw: Thank you. I couldn’t leave. I guess I could tweet less, but I worry I’d miss the good stuff.

Jon: At what point do the Mets give Dom Smith a chance now that his power seems to be coming around? Or is 1B still Duda’s for the foreseeable future?
Klaw: I think next year we see Smith at some point.

Dave: Thanks for the chats. Maybe it’s just my imagination, but you seem to really enjoy the give and take. Anyway, I don’t expect Jackie Bradly Jr.’s to maintain this pace all year. But what do you expect is the new normal for JBJ’s offence and what is he doing different. Thanks
Klaw: I do absolutely enjoy the give and take until someone gets personal (why would I go out of my way to take offense? I just say what I think, nothing more). As for JBJ, it seems like he’s much more aggressive earlier in the count. He’s not the player I thought he’d be – I thought he’d be good, but not this shape of production, more patient with higher contact rather than this less patient more powerful version.

Chris: Seen a couple “Kershaw might be the best pitcher ever” stories of late. Who is the best pitcher of the “modern era” in your opinion?
Klaw: Pedro. But Kershaw’s creepin’.

Vinnie: Would a guy with below average velocity, but excellent movement and command ever get drafted inside the top 10 rounds? i.e., would amateur Greg Maddux be a 30th round pick because of his lack of velo?
Klaw: Maddux threw low 90s as an amateur. But Thomas Eshelman is what you’re talking about and he was a second rounder last year I believe.

Andrew: Would you ever consider working for an MLB team ever again?
Klaw: The career advice I give to people who ask – don’t rule anything out, because you don’t want to close doors on any opportunities you might not expect – applies to me to. I don’t plan on it, but I wouldn’t tell you “no.”

Chris (Chicago): Are Oreos still your kryptonite? I just ate half a sleeve and now feel so much shame.
Klaw: Yeah. Just can’t have them in the house.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be at the SEC tournament next week so the chat day may change. If you’re attending Wednesday or Thursday, I’d love to meet you in person. Enjoy your weekends.

Comments

  1. I recall you initially seeing K Hendricks as just a useful 5th starter but I would say that he’s been a good deal better than that so far for the Cubs. Is he one of those who has surprised you as a major leaguer?

  2. Keith, What happens with a guy like Matt Krook this year? Does some team just wait until the 11th round to take him and negotiate?

  3. “Did the Gretzky trade work out for Edmonton?”

    The Oilers won the Stanley Cup two years later, but they still had Messier, Kurri, Fuhr, Anderson, etc on the team. Of the players they received, Jimmy Carson was the best player they received at the time but Martin Gelinas probably ended up being the best player. If you don’t know who they are, that probably explains things a lot. The team did trade everyone else and slowly became mediocre. But what may have also been as important was the $15 million that the Oilers received from the Kings. With the drastic drop of the Canadian dollar a couple years later, that money may have kept the team from moving elsewhere. IIRC, there were rumors in the mid 90’s that they would move to Minneapolis or Hamilton just like the other Canadian teams (with the exception of Montreal and Toronto). So the trade may have indirectly kept the team there.

  4. I rarely catch the chat live. In many of the replies in the transcript it says “Klaw about an hour ago”. Is this a problem in the switch to transcription or some sort of Keith snark I’m just not getting?

  5. Jon,I think it means Keith answered something similar on Twitter at that referenced time

  6. To the person looking for his lost motivation, I read this last month and it was interesting, might be helpful to you. Gist of it is, don’t wait for motivation, just wade in and start doing what you need to do:

    http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/04/this-is-the-best-advice-on-motivation-i-have-ever-read.html

    • Really good. Have you read the book referenced therein?

    • I’ve read it. Fantastic book which I recommend highly.

    • I have the audiobook on my phone but haven’t listened to it yet. Looking forward to it, though.

    • … and will tackle it after I finish Michael Pollan’s “Cooked.” I’ve never wanted barbecue so much in my life.

    • That seems to me to be, frankly, some really worthless “advice.”

      Lacking motivation means you lack the interest/desire in getting started. Of course, you CAN start nonetheless, but declaring that offers no special insight to me, It’s like telling me that if I’m tired, I should sleep more.

    • Well, CB, I think your analogy is flawed in that falling asleep is an involuntary process. Choosing to do something, anything, largely is not.

      I understand what you’re saying, but if what you said is always true, then Nike would have never had such a hit ad campaign, that resonated with so many people, with the phrase Just Do It. Some people (right now I’m one of them) are apparently so wedded to the me-and-my-desires-first thinking that binds them to the couch … but I can also tell you that the best shape I ever got in, and some of the most productive times in my life, were when I stopped giving in to me-first and want-to and, yes, just did it.

      It is at least worth trying (more than once, because inertia is a tough nut) to see whether the foot stomping “I don’t want to!” 5-year-old inside of most of us can be quieted and the productive do-it-anyway person be allowed to get a say.

  7. Regarding the guy with the peanut-allergic daughter:

    I was the director of ticketing for a minor league baseball team and we also did not have a peanut-free section. However, if someone contacted me with concerns about peanuts and wanted to bring their kids to a game, I would often put the group up in one of our suites, should one be available.

    While I obviously can’t speak for all teams, it never hurts to ask the ticket guy or GM/Assistant GM directly. Given the choice between making a family happy or otherwise not having that customer, I would always make sure that family got inside our doors.

    No one abused the offer and families were happy to take the upgrade.

  8. Keith didn’t answer my response:

    College education seems to be a requirement because that is what teams are seeking when hiring managers (28/30 attended college). After that many of the current players/former players lack sufficient education (also poor high school, if at all). I did not mention anything regarding coaching experience, but since it was mentioned–yes, teams appear to be valuing coaching experience less lately, therefore, that wouldn’t necessarily be as much of the equation when trying to point towards discrimination. And the language, teams STRONGLY (as in always) require the manager to speak English. Apparently Keith cannot see the issue with a manager only speaking Spanish.

    I agree there are qualified candidates that are Latino. However, the guidelines that are used to measure this are NOT what you (and media in general or saying). It must look to the total population pool and the pool of qualified candidates–simply being a former player is NOT enough. Teams are telling us this by their hiring practices.

    • Keith can “see the issue” with a manager only speaking Spanish just fine. I can also see the issue with a manager who only speaks English. Perhaps you can’t.

      Your inductive reasoning on college education is flawed. You have provided zero reason why a college education would be a requirement – what possible benefit it would confer. I have never had a GM or President mention the need for a college education in a manager, and many candidates have interviewed or been hired without this education. If it were a requirement, they’d never be interviewed, since teams could ascertain this disqualifying factor before conducting the face-to-face conversation.

    • It would probably help the marketing department out if the manager was comfortable enough in Spanish that they could have some interviews in Spanish, particularly if Spanish radio/tv bought the rights to broadcast your games.

  9. The fans and media of most teams, if not all, demand an English speaking manager. Post game conferences, radio and tv interviews matter to ownership selling a product.

    I do agree that on the field does not matter as most of some rosters speak Spanish as the first language.

    • So hire a translator for the media relations side. Teams do that for individual players from Asia.

    • Mauricio Pochettino didn’t know any English when he was appointed manager of Southampton in the EPL. All his interviews in his first year had a Spanish interpreter. Three plus years later, he’s managing Tottenham, who finished in the 3rd in the EPL this year. His interviews are conducted in English now.

  10. Keith, by your logic (teams never mentioning that they need a college degree) should mean that there is not an issue with MLB currently having zero Latino managers–since they also wouldn’t tell you that they are not hiring them for that reason.

    What is telling us the desired characteristics of a MLB manager is the choices that have been hired–including the ability to speak English (because the majority still speaks English in this country and in MLB, so that should be the desired language), a base-level high school education (which every manager currently has–many of the players that you are misinterpreting things on do not have this level of an education), and at least some college. You’re focusing on the education and bringing in the language as a method to distract from the real problem: X current Latino players and 0 Latino managers = discrimination. That is not how to measure this since not all Latinos are qualified (playing baseball alone doesn’t do it–teams DO want managers that can think and communicate). You must compare the number of qualified candidates to the population pool and applicant pool.

    • I doubt Keith is going to answer you (again) because you are trolling with straw men and flawed logic.

      Since 1990, minority players in the major leagues have comprised 30 to 40 percent of all players. Since, as Keith notes above, this has been established by clubs as the minimum requirement for being hired to manage in MLB, this is your candidate pool. I would note that this would create an eligible candidate pool in the thousands. If we expand the candidate pool to include minor league players, the candidate pool expands to tens of thousands of eligible candidates who could enter into minor league coaching and managing position with the possibility of promotion. And even if we add in your specious requirement of at least conversant English, the candidate pool would be quite large.
      Your education requirements are irrelevant as they are unsupported by facts. As noted by Keith, the minimum requirement established is only MLB experience.
      Given that the opportunity to hire and develop Latino coaches is far greater than zero, and that the resulting job fulfillment at the MLB level is zero, it is absolutely relevant to ask if discrimination is a factor. However, the fact that the potential candidate pool is so large and the reults are so embarrassingly lopsided in favor of whites, suggests there is some element of systemic discrimination.
      Post-rationalizing the outcomes ignores the fact that the MLB coaching and managing ranks are embarrassingly non-diverse DESPITE a large candidate pool available to MLB clubs.

    • You presented college education as a barrier to entry for Latino managers. I’ve demonstrated that it is not.

      Now you’re claiming monolingualism is a barrier to entry, but I’ve also demonstrated that it is not, without even diving into the benefits of bilingual managers (I think those are obvious).

      The salient point here is that the number of qualified Latino candidates for MLB managing jobs is not zero. If irrelevant “qualifications” are in place that serve to prevent Latino candidates from obtaining these jobs – the MLB equivalents of poll taxes and literacy tests – then MLB has a duty to step in and remove them.

  11. I agree that more Latinos need to be hired–bc certainly the number of qualified candidates is not less than ~3%. BUT the narrative that exists is by saying that every Latino to have played is qualifed. You’re smart enough to know that isn’t the case. Hell, every white/black (any other color) player isn’t even qualified. That alone should make the point.

    • That’s a straw man argument. That is not what Keith said.
      Certainly not every player who has played baseball at the Major League level is “qualified.” However, clubs have established that MLB service time is an acceptable minimum qualification, establishing the beginning parameters of any candidate pool. And that alone provides a very large candidate pool from which MLB can develop coaches and managers. But it hasn’t.

  12. Regarding Kershaw creepin’ up on Pedro – I know it’s not a fair comparison since he has had his out years included, and I doubt we’ll ever see another pitcher do what Pedro did in ’99-’00, but Kershaw has passed Martinez for the best ERA+ of all time, non-Mariano division. He’s got 50 bWAR, and he just turned 28. Preposterous.

  13. The other thing about “Native” mascots goes beyond the ways they demean and make caricatures of American Indians; they also boost the self-value white people exhibit, as the research of Stephanie Fryberg and others demonstrate. Pretty fucked up shit but not surprising anymore

    e.g.

    http://www.indianmascots.com/ex-17—fryberg-final_disse.pdf

  14. Keith, do you have a problem calling it the Negro Leagues? Kind of a smart ass question but also kind of serious, I really am wondering. I’m white and I need to know what I need to be offended over just in case it’s offensive to someone else. (OK, I lost you on that last part, that was trolling, I’ll give you that…)

    • No, since it was the name at the time. The NL Museum in Kansas City also uses the term, which I’d consider a tacit approval.

      I also don’t believe in censoring old works of art that include language we’d consider unacceptable today. They reflect the times in which they were written or performed, and document the changes in our culture.

  15. Wouldn’t the Washington football team be a sign of the times. It was acceptable at the time the team was created (even now, really)?

    • The difference, as I see it, is that books and works of art that reflect the time they were created are essentially “frozen” in their place in history. The Washington football team is a modern team, despite thei “heritage”, that basks in an offensive, racist team name.

  16. I presented that there is a vast distinction between the levels of education received by American-born candidates compared to many of the Latino players that you label as: “every last one of them is qualified since they played the game just like all the white dudes.” Many Latino players (in addition to not speaking the majority spoken language – English) do not have HIGH SCHOOL education (not to mention college–which was furthering the point since 28 of the 30 managers have some college education). These aren’t literacy tests–these are the characteristics of the current pool of managers. I didn’t throw them out as a means to cut out the Latino candidates. These are relevant bc this is the field of current managers that you think anyone that has played can enter into. There are many–and I mean many–of white players (and other races) that are not qualified to be a manager and they too played the game. Still not sure why you hang onto sub-portions of the underlying point and continue to say that they are invalid so I’m wrong and all Latinos are qualified.

    Again, the point is, all current players (all races) are not qualified. So why say that a particular race or segment (Latino players) are ALL qualified. That is the point that I’m making to deaf ears. So, saying X current Latino players and 0 current Latino managers = discrimination, we need to accept that the media is creating a bit of a narrative (by over-inflating the numbers). (I’ve also said that I agree with the very basic point–that there are qualified Latino candidates and they deserve a shot at managing.) I acknowledge the clear benefit of a bilingual manager but also acknowledge the clear non-benefit that a Spanish speaking only manager would bring.

    • He was being sarcastic. The point being that there have been a number of white ML managers whose resumes for the position appear to amount to “having played”. Since they got hired for “having played”, then “having played” must be prima facie evidence of being qualified.

    • Thank you.

    • “I presented that there is a vast distinction between the levels of education received by American-born candidates compared to many of the Latino players.”

      When did you do this? I didn’t see any evidence presented.

  17. Vince Rodemer

    Keith, I cover two high school kids regularly and wanted to get an idea where they would be drafted and if you had an evaluation of them. They are Mifflin County (Pa.) High School 3B/RHP Isaiah Kearns and LHP Peyton Reesman. I’ve heard 5-10 round on Kearns. Any help would be great. Thanks.

    • Vince: I don’t know these kids (which means they’re probably after the 3rd round) but Eric has a note on Kearns that he’ll leave here shortly.

    • Hi Vince. I’ve got Kearns up to 93, mostly 87-90 with some feel for a mid-70s breaking ball that has slider shape but curveball velo. I think his body is a little difficult to project. He’s considered raw, but not everyone thinks that’s a bad thing because it lets them project on the skills more. Offensively, scouts like the power, they are fine with the swing, have questions about who he’ll handle pro pitching because he doesn’t see good pitching now and wasn’t a mainstay on the showcase circuit last summer or anything. I think your 5-10 round prediction is probably correct, he’ll be announced as a 3B with the mound as a fallback option. I don’t know if he has an advisor or anything so can’t tell you how signable he is but if you talk to the kid, feel free to let us know. Thanks.

  18. Vince Rodemer

    Thanks Eric. Do you mind if I quote this in my draft story in a few weeks? I’ve covered these two for the last 3 years. Isaiah is a very quiet kid, even those around the baseball team don’t really know what he’ll do. I have heard some team like the Dodgers like him as an outfielder, although I haven’t seen him play a single inning there. I could see him arm and athleticism projecting as an outfielder though. I know Peyton a bit more and have interviewed him after games several times. He’s a smart kid and won several academic honors. I’ve been told he’s going to honor his letter of intent and go to Pitt regardless.

  19. Hi Keith,

    What do you think is the ceiling for Brock Stewart? I know he’s a little older at 24 so he’s probably not a 1 or 2, but do you think he has the stuff to be a mid rotation starter like Ross Stripling? Or does he profile better as a bullpen guy?

  20. Sergey Slootsky

    Why was my comment taken down? Are you against free speech or something? This is just like the left, if someone points out their hypocrisy, they silence the speaker instead of arguing the point.

    Keith = DePaul