Klawchat 10/22/15.

Klaw: Time to eat all your words, swallow your pride … Klawchat.

Noah: If you were the Phillies, who would you pick first overall in the 2016 draft?
Klaw: I don’t believe there’s a clear 1-1 candidate in this draft yet. I think if the draft were today it’d be Alec Hanson of Oklahoma, but this isn’t a Harper or Strasburg situation, and even Gerrit Cole, who I thought was the clear 1-1 in his class, didn’t emerge as that until March or so of his junior year.

Darren D.: Not to overreact, but would you give Marco Estrada a QO if you were Anthopoulos? Assuming Price and Buehrle are gone, the ’16 rotation right now is Stroman, presumably Dickey, Hutchison and I guess Sanchez?
Klaw: I probably would not, because I think regression for him is almost inevitable, but I wouldn’t say that it was the wrong choice if they did so. Same for Daniel Murphy – not going to be worth the QO, but I can’t tell you it’s a bad move, just not what I would do.

Mark: How good is Willson Contreras defensively?
Klaw: I’ve heard more than just playable or average. So far I’ve only seen him hit here – two doubles and a homer yesterday – and I love what I see at the plate.

Andrew: Do you ever see Ray Black becoming anything more than an interesting arm in the minors? The BB/9 issues are Crick-esque, and he’s a 25 year old in A+ ball, which makes me think he won’t be much in the majors, despite the great velocity
Klaw: He needs a viable second pitch and then I think they really have something. I’m not concerned about his age because I don’t think it matters for relievers and because he has a good reason (missed 2.5 years with injuries).

Mike in Nashville: THE METS KEITH THE METS! What’s the over/under on Mets World Series appearances the next 5 years?
Klaw: Two? I do not believe this is their last one in this run – they’re only getting better.

Chris Plouffe: Does Jacoby Jones have enough at the plate to be considered even a major league utility player?
Klaw: I don’t think so. Great athlete, could still figure it out.

Jay: Keith, can i get your thoughts on Alex Reyes’ first AFL start of the year and his outlook moving ahead?
Klaw: You can’t, because I wasn’t in Arizona yet, but I will see him in about three hours!

Bob: Did your wife also go to Harvard — or some other highly thought of institution?
Klaw: Nope.

JR: The full Kyle Schwarber was on display in the NLCS: great hitting, not so great defense. Is it something the Cubs keep living with and hope the defense improves, or do they look to trade him to an AL team for pitching?
Klaw: I think he ends up an average or fringe-average defender in LF. I doubt they trade him – the front office believes very, very strongly in his makeup.

Kraig: You have talked several times about players you have missed on, one way or another. Have you adjusted your evaluations based on any of thoses misses, for example did you find yourself over or undervaluing certain attributes? Or is it more than baseball is very hard and things just don’t always turn out like you expect?
Klaw: Both, no question. I pay a bit more attention to certain stats, to certain skills (e.g. questions around hand-eye coordination), worry less about body types, etc. You have to adjust, but you’ll also never get everything right in this business and IMO you can’t try to change your approach for every failure either.

Bob: In the past, someone would have grossly overpaid for Daniel Murphy, a decent regular 2B, based on October. Have GMs gotten smart enough that this is no longer the case?
Klaw: I think it’s much less likely now but not impossible, and there are always owners who want to make the big splash by saying “we signed the World Series hero!”

Julio: What level would you expect Eddy Julio Martinez to be at to start next season (assuming not some EXST for extra ABs, obviously)
Klaw: Probably low-A to see what his approach is like, because I don’t think anyone knows how advanced or raw he is in that regard.

SB: Thoughts on Dan Dakich calling you “lil” Keith in your exchange last night? Not sure what your size has to do with anything.
Klaw: That ended the conversation for me. I am short and slight and I don’t think I need to apologize for either.

TC: I’m excited you say the Mets are only getting better, but how do you see them reloading on offense in the offseason assuming Murphy/Cespedes are gone and the only other bat in the lineup headed for his prime is Conforto?
Klaw: Smith is coming reasonably quickly, Herrera should be a real asset on offense, Cecchini may be as well, Rosario is still a potential all-star. They’ll probably need to add one bat this winter to bridge the gap to those kids.

Logan: Was anybody else in on Dickey when the Mets looked to trade him? d’Arnaud I’m okay with, but including Thor really hurts.
Klaw: We have to give the Mets credit – I think every major trade Alderson and company have made has worked out near the top end of the possible outcomes, like a 90% outcome on just about every deal. I’m sure there’s some good fortune there but credit their pro scouts and analysts too.

alex: Trey Mancini– is he a potential regular, or a 4A guy?
Klaw: I think he’s a 4A guy.

Tim B: Regarding Estrada – isn’t he in line for one of the mid-rotation 4-$50 million contracts now? I think the QO is an easy decision in that case.
Klaw: Woof, I wouldn’t give him that. Maybe someone will and if Toronto thinks so then yes, they should absolutely offer it.

Chris, Larchmont: Thoughts on d’Arnaud defensively? He seemed to steal quite a few strikes with his pitch “presentation” skills in Cubs series.
Klaw: I’ve always believed in his defense – pitchers loved throwing to him, his receiving always looked great, and his throwing was always good. My main concerns on him have been the ability to stay healthy and the ability to get on base.

Bob: Speaking of Harvard, do you think that its reputation was an asset to you in job searching? Do you think that the education was actually better there?
Klaw: Reputation yes. Education, probably not.

Brian: Keith, if the Mets decide Matt Harvey is too much of a headache and decide to trade him. Could the Red Sox put together a package that doesnt include Betts or Bogaerts that could get him? Should they? Thanks!
Klaw: If I were Alderson I’d hold firm on one of those two kids, because I don’t think getting someone farther away like Devers makes quite as much sense for a team that is already a legitimate contender, but in the abstract, Devers and a second prospect of note would be reasonable for Harvey if you agree with me that Devers is a monster in waiting.

Jordan: Have you seen Lucas Sims yet in AFL? What’s the outlook for him moving forward? Completely confused as to his career projections after such a weird year/year-and-a-half.
Klaw: Going to miss him unfortunately – he’s pitching today in the other afternoon game, and I’m going to see Reyes instead.

EC: Have you been to Enrique Olivera’s new restaurant, Cosme, in NYC? Went to Pujol earlier this year and it was one of the best meals I’ve ever had.
Klaw: Yes, went there with Harold Dieterle and had the duck carnitas and the blue corn pavolva … both absolutely mind-blowing dishes.

Andy: Which would be the better job, Dodgers or Nationals? You could easily see both of them in the playoffs next season.
Klaw: Depends on what you want to do as manager. If you want more autonomy, Washington. If you want more input from the front office on moves, tactics, lineups, then LA. I’d actually prefer the latter myself – I want to be more armed with info so I can do a better job.

fats: why did every prospect writer basically miss on pillars defense?
Klaw: He wasn’t anywhere near this good in the minors.

Addoeh: Can a player add a clause to their contract that a team cannot give them a QO?
Klaw: Yes. Most free agents from NPB have no-arbitration clauses that gives them unrestricted free agency when their deals expire, even if it’s before six years of service. Some Cuban FAs have done the same. No reason a US-born player couldn’t do the same.

Jon: Keith, in the baseball cards with your “game used” clothing, what was it that was used? Tie? Shirt?
Klaw: Shirt. Didn’t fit and it was kind of loud so I thought it would still ‘pop’ a bit on the card. I wear too much monochromatic stuff and I didn’t think anything plain would look good on the card.

Dan: Do you believe that players can be on a hot streak? When someone like Murphy is on a hot streak like he is, do you attribute that to small sample size (i.e., he’s just getting luck and bunching his hits together) or do you think he’s actually seeing the ball and swinging the bat appreciably better?
Klaw: A player can be on a “hot streak” in the sense that he’s performed appreciably better than his norm or true talent level in a short stretch, but it has no predictive value. It has narrative value though!

Joe: Do you see Arrietta staying this good? I mean he’s 29 years old already and just finally had his first 30 start season.
Klaw: I see no reason to argue that he won’t.

Mike: Can outfielders be taught to run better routes to the ball?
Klaw: Yes, and I think some fielders can learn better reads – I know I’ve seen players improve in that regard – but neither is easy. You can’t just wave your hand and say “he’ll get better.” It takes the right coach(es) and the right player makeup too.

j: Your thoughts on Domingo Acevedo? Know he throws really hard, but from just watching his delivery (front side opens, max effort) is he destined for the bullpen long-term?
Klaw: Haven’t seen yet – he’s out here – but it does sound from what scouts have told me like he’s a power reliever with big upside in that role.

Young: What do you think of Braxton Davidson so far? Seems to have very impressive discipline.
Klaw: Yes and there’s power in there too. Probably 1B only in the long run so the standard is high for his offense but I do like his chances – thought it was a very good pick where they got him last year.

Dave: Do the Dodgers sign one of the top FA starters?
Klaw: I think so – I think they have to do so even if they retain Greinke. What’s their rotation otherwise? Kershaw, Wood, and, uh, I mean, well, McCarthy will be back at some point…

Jordan: No question here, just follow-up: don’t blame you at all for going to see Reyes. Also, thanks for doing this! It’s great to experience a little piece of your job/interaction with fanboys like us.
Klaw: You’re welcome and thanks for the question. I’m bummed that I won’t see Sims, for myself and because I know Atlanta fans wanted me to see him, but rain on Tuesday killed his game (but not the one on the other side of town, so I raced across Phoenix and got eight innings of the alternative) and he ended up pushed back to Thursday.

Rob: Do you think Jameson Taillon can put it back together and recover enough to become a top starting prospect again?
Klaw: Yes, I do. He’s had some rotten luck but nothing that would prevent him from coming back and eventually working as a starter. Look at how much time Matz missed … he’s still a viable mid-rotation starter.

Bob: IS the philly Cornelius Randolph love justified? he doesn’t seem to have one loud tool
Klaw: That boy can hit. I don’t know where he plays but the hit tool is “loud.”

Andy: On your ESPN page, there used to be a wonderful spot where it linked to your preseason prospect lists, your midseason list, and other various useful prospecty things. As far as I can tell that is no longer there. Can you please let the people who re-did (ruined) the site know that there may be times in October where that sort of information would be nice to be able to access quickly?
Klaw: Unfortunately the redesign did not play well with the formatting of lists. I was told a while back that they’d be doing some retrofitting to restore those, but I know everyone is already rather well taxed by ‘current’ work and I would never expect that to be a top priority. The people you don’t know at ESPN work very hard so that people like me can just do what we do and not have to worry about getting stuff formatted and posted and linked.

Sarah: Have you ever seen a pitching staff with as much stuff as this Mets one?
Klaw: Not off the top of my head. People sometimes complain on the twitters when I post a remarkable velocity number for a pitcher, saying velo isn’t everything … well, no, it’s not everything, but it’s still pretty fucking nice to have.

Bob: Most prognosticators believed that KC would suffer enough regression this year to probably miss the playoffs. Now they’re one game away from the WS which qualifies as a successful season. What’s your take on why they were able to exceed expectations.
Klaw: Development of their young bats, especially Hosmer and Moustakas.

Jake: Wanted to thank you for the Samurai review – it’s now one of our favorites. We’ve played 7 Worlds with 3 people but usually it’s just my wife and I. Worth trying out the 2-player version, or should we stick with the usual 2-person fare (Splendor, Dominion, TTR, Lost Cities, The Camel Game)?
Klaw: There’s a two-player standalone game called 7 Wonders: Duels coming soon. I’m working on getting a review copy.

Ed: Can Duffy keep up a similar level of play at 3rd for the Giants?
Klaw: Probably – the power is a bit surprising, but I spoke to the area scout who signed him for SF who talked a bit about why Duffy showed no power as an amateur (injuries and of course the terrible home park at Long Beach were major reasons) so maybe he can be a 10-12 HR guy going forward.

Andy G: Have you ever read A prayer for Owen Meany?
Klaw: I have not – never read any Irving.

Patrick: Do you see Teheran bouncing back to his 2013-14 type seasons? Regardless he’s a horse who goes out there every 5th day. Three seasons in a row averaging 30+ starts/200+ innings.
Klaw: I don’t have a good explanation for what went wrong this year, and I think I’d need that to answer your question fairly.

JG: Have you gotten to see any of the Twins prospects in the AFL?
Klaw: I’ve seen all six teams already, about half the starting pitchers and maybe a little more than half the relievers, so yes – but it will help me if you have a question on a specific player because I don’t have my notes or rosters in front of me as I do this. (I do have a crepe with pork belly and maple bacon in front of me, though.)

Matthew Sciannella: Currently at the hospital while my wife is in labor. Suggestions?
Klaw: Uh … put the phone down?

Robert: Can you understand why the heck Ausmus is returning to the Tigers? While his team didn’t have enough talent, he seemed to make things worse.
Klaw: I can’t. After he left Norris (best wishes to him in his fight against cancer) out there for nearly 60 pitches in that one inning, he should have been fired on the spot. Like, you don’t even get to use our showers. Just pack your knives and go.

Rob: It is my understanding that clauses to prevent a QO are not allowed. This is from page 90 of the CBA on MLB’s website: ” A Club and Player (or their designated representatives) shall not enter into any agreement, understanding or contract, or make
Klaw: Ah, my mistake. That would not proscribe such clauses for NPB/KBO/Cuban free agents, because those are not “qualifying offer” clauses but disallow offers of arbitration. Thank you for the correction.

Jesse: Any new places to eat you have enjoyed Phoenix during your AFL trip?
Klaw: Welcome Chicken (second visit but still great), Noble Eatery, La Piazza al Forno all great. EVO was kind of a disaster.

Dan: So many Mets fans, and reporters, are giving Omar Minaya all the credit for the Mets this year but completely ignore the collapsing teams he was responsible for in 2007 and 2008 and the horrible teams in 2009-2014. Also left the farm system in ruins, which Sandy has done a great job replenishing. Do you know why people are trying to give Omar credit and was he actually a good GM and I’m just missing something? I get he drafted Harvey and deGrom and Matz but he didn’t develop any of those guys.
Klaw: You can give an old GM or regime some credit while acknowledging mistakes too. I think Omar and his people deserve just that – some credit, but not the bulk of it. Sandy didn’t inherit a winner, but there were assets already in the system around which he (and his group) built a winner. I said on Buster’s podcast this morning that this is actually a good baseball story: they weren’t built with money, like you might expect a large-market team to be, but through good scouting and player development.

Sage: What offseason moves do you see the Cubs making?
Klaw: Add a starter, maybe two (one higher-end, one for depth), use some of that infield logjam to acquire pitching help.

Matt: Hi Keith. I’ve gotten some good board game recommendations from you, thanks. I’m wondering if you grew up playing video games, or if board games were always your thing. Take care.
Klaw: I liked boardgames as a kid but there weren’t really many good ones – it was Monopoly, Risk, Scrabble, and other games that I just don’t like now. I played some video games but was never that hardcore about it – I didn’t have a Nintendo or Playstation or anything.

TedT: Since the Red Sox have pipeline of major and minor league centerfielders (Bradley, Betts, Margo, Benintendi), who do you think the Sox should keep and to trade to get some pitching?
Klaw: I’d work to use JBJ in a trade because of those four he has the lowest upside, yet his trade value should be reasonably high because he’s ready right now. There’s significant value in the ability to say to another GM “I’m giving you a capable centerfielder who’ll earn just $1.5 million over the next three years for you.”

John: What do you do if you’re the Rockies? Trade Cargo and Nolan? Just completely blow it up, grab as many power arms as possible and hope a few make it? They are many seasons away from competing no matter what they do.
Klaw: Trade CarGo for sure. Arenado … god, there’d be a riot in Denver, wouldn’t they? But you’re right in that they’re unlikely to be, say, a 95-win team while he’s still there.

Ryan: Do you think Atlanta’s Maricio Cabrera will ever find enough command and control to be a solid reliever in the bigs? He’s been clocked as high as 102 mph.
Klaw: Yes, I do, and BTW I was one of the folks who got the 102 reading yesterday (twice). He gave up two hits in his inning, both on offspeed pitches. He should just throw the fastball, which has some sink on it, until hitters show they can catch up to it.

Andy: Assuming Greinke is the most sought after starter on the market, who’s #2?
Klaw: Price. Or Price is 1 and Greinke is 2. Take your pick – both are bona fide aces.

Ridley Kemp: Do you think Jacob Nottingham can stay behind the plate, and if not, does hit hit enough to play anywhere else? P.S. Thank you for continuing to sow the seeds of love and do these chats on your site. You’re the highlight of most of my work weeks.
Klaw: I do think he can stay behind the plate, never great but certainly playable there.

Rory: Word on the playground is the Marlins waited on their managerial search to see what Mattingly’s fate would be. Given the history of that position, is it fair to assume a likely highly-sought guy like Mattingly would take ANY job other than that one?
Klaw: Two reasons he might take that job. One, I’m not sure a better offer materializes this winter for Donnie, and he may just choose to take the bird in the hand. Two, the Marlins have a reputation within the industry for paying staffers extremely well, and it’s hard to turn down big money even if you know you might not love the working conditions. I couldn’t do it, but I would never tell you you’re wrong to do so.

Andrew: who’s closer to cooperstown for you? Greinke or Price?
Klaw: Trick question: Neither, because Cooperstown actually isn’t close to anything.

Robert: At what point does Price’s sky high postseason ERA over 7 starts enter a GM’s analysis especially when this post season it’s actually been worse?
Klaw: Any GM who considers that is stupid and will get what he deserves, which in this case is not having David Price.

Kyle: What do the Twins do with Sano going into next year? Dh again, move plouffe and plug him at 3b, or (the unlikely) do something with mauer and put him where he belongs at 1b?
Klaw: I say DH him. Mauer’s not going anywhere, and I think Sano would be below average enough at 3b that they’d end up looking for another solution anyway. Their surfeit of centerfielders has to generate some trade conversations this winter, right? Use one of them to get a better starting pitcher, or maybe to acquire a third baseman who provides more defense and settles Sano in at DH.

Leo: Do you get more or less questions through this form of chat as opposed to the old ESPN model?
Klaw: I think fewer in total but of a much higher quality.

Maple Bacon: Can a pitcher ever develop better control, as in can Nick Burdi learn to throw the ball over the plate?
Klaw: Yes, but it involves a number of variables, from learning to repeat a delivery to developing the mental skills required to execute something consistently and to learn to maintain an approach even when, say, you throw that ‘perfect’ pitch and the hitter still makes good contact.

Bob: Am I right in thinking that AFL includes players who have already been on the Major League team, players who are just about ready to get there, and players who are a couple of years away? All there for different reasons? If so, then it must be challenging trying to scout the player while ignoring the competition.
Klaw: Yes, you are correct, so the focus here is more on tools/skills. I usually note the pitch type when writing down what a hitter did, good or bad, so later I remember, “yes, he hit that homer, but it was a hanging slider” or I can see, “hey, I have him swinging and missing on four fastballs up from same-side pitchers.”

Drew: Do you think Matt Williams has any future as a hitting coach?
Klaw: I promise I’m not picking on the guy, but do we have any idea what he actually does well?

Mark: How soon can Wilson Contreras get a look in Chicago? Montero’s second half and playoffs worries me greatly.
Klaw: I think he can be part of the catching solution there next year, not right away but over the course of the whole season.

John: I have a 9 year-old son who loves baseball and wouldn’t hesitate to play it year-round. I’m inclined to work other sports into the mix for the sake of diversity of muscle movements. Any thoughts or advice?
Klaw: The new consensus among sports medicine folks is that mixing up sports and activities is better for kids’ long-term health than early, year-round specialization.

Andy: Is it weird that I saw a tweet about Adam Miller and thought it was the ex-Indians prospect and I was glad he got his stuff back?
Klaw: Nope, I did the same thing earlier this year when I first heard that he was bumping 100 mph.

Aubrey: Do the Astros have both DH and 1B answered for 2016 with White/Reed (or at least give them legitimate chances to fail)? They should be much better than Gattis/Carter, right?
Klaw: I believe so, and that’s an org that isn’t afraid to play the rookie over the veteran. Maybe Reed starts in AAA but both guys should get significant playing time in Houston in 2016, because that will make the club better.

Brian: Local media in Chicago is already speculating that Kris Bryant will be moved to the outfield next year. But if he can handle 3rd, which the limited data we have on him says he probably can, isn’t there where he would provide the most value? It’s easy to shore up an OF spot than a 3rd base spot, right?
Klaw: Buster asked me this on the podcast too – I think he can play third. Good arm, good hands, range might be a bit limited, but he has instincts and is another great kid with a good work ethic. He’ll never be worse than “adequate” there. FWIW, I like his chances to stay there more than Gallo’s.

Shawn: I think Gabe Kapler and Alex Cora would be good managers
Klaw: I agree on both. Kapler got unbelievable raves when he managed a year in Boston’s system, and you all know I’m a fan of Cora’s. Cora may get a job before LA gets a chance to talk to him, though. LA should also interview Dave Martinez, since Andrew has the relationship with him, and, having coached under Maddon, Martinez should be familiar with the front office-heavy model they’d like to employ.

Aubrey: Did Correa show more power as a rookie than you’d anticipated? How long would you say he should stay at SS?
Klaw: If you’d asked me when he was called up, I would have guessed a lower HR total than he put up, but I knew he had power potential. I’d give him 3-4 years at short, although it’s possible they’ll end up with a better defensive option who pushes him to third even though he’d still be average or better at shortstop.

Andy: Would the Cubs push for a vote on the NL adding a DH in this year’s winter meetings? Between Schwarber, Baez, and Vogelbach they would be able to exploit it better than most teams.
Klaw: That’s a CBA matter and MLB doesn’t want it because it’ll raise player costs.

Frank: Which side of the pitching rubber would you suggest for a guy with good sink and run? I think being on the far glove side would create better angles to hit the outside corner against oppo sided hitters and gives you more of the plate to work with against same sided hitters. My buddy thinks you should be on the arm side, because you can get inside on same sided hitters much easier. What say you?
Klaw: No clear answer. I prefer if guys don’t throw across their bodies, primarily for health reasons but also because it’s hard to locate to your glove side like that, but if the pitcher is more comfortable there and can indeed locate to the other side, then let him stand on the arm side. It has to be individualized and you only make a change when one is required. This is why I’ve been after Showalter for moving Gausman to the other side of the rubber – there was NO GOOD REASON to make that change, and the results have been negative.

Bill: Does the fact that the Mets made the WS change your opinion at all about the deadline moves they made? I know you weren’t a fan of the clippard/ces deals at the time…but while process is important results have to count for something too. Thoughts?
Klaw: No, it doesn’t. One, the Mets couldn’t know at the time of the deals that they would make the WS – they could consider it as a possibility, but the odds of such an outcome were quite low on July 31st. Two, they clearly overpaid for Clippard, and I think they overpaid for Cespedes based on his market at that time – and they couldn’t have known that he’d turn into Barry Bonds for a month. However, is that even if they don’t win the World Series, I don’t think anyone there is going to look back and regret the trades even if Fulmer becomes a number two starter – the process wasn’t great, but the outcome was. It renders what I’m saying a bit academic – fans shouldn’t really care about that while they’re celebrating, should they?

Camden: Does whichever pro scout recommended Sam Dyson to target in trade for the Rangers deserve a raise?
Klaw: Yes, but then again, all scouts deserve raises. Those positions don’t pay very well relative to what they ask scouts to do in terms of giving their time to their jobs. Speaking of time, I’m out of it if I want to get to BP up at Scottsdale. Thank you all, as always, for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll write something up on the AFL as soon as I get another chunk of free time, and I’ll try to work in another chat next Thursday. And happy Alex Reyes Day!